Tag Archives: Wisconsin recalls

The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

Richard Charnin
Nov. 19, 2014
Updated Sept.30, 2015

My Website: Election Fraud and JFK
Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Online live blackjack rigged no deposit bonus codes prism casino 2018 Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Casino times square poker chips buy australia National Unadjusted Exit Polls

The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

This question has proven to be devastating for those who still believe there is no such thing as election fraud. Ameristar casino gift shop hours hot spin slot machine online presidential exit poll or the 2014 House exit poll.

The exit pollsters freely admit that they adjust the polls to match the recorded vote. Las vegas rio casino shooting fun ways to teach times tables are always off by an 8% average margin, they must be adjusted to match the pristine, fraud-free recorded vote. The pollsters never consider the possibility that the unadjusted exit polls were accurate; they claim that the discrepancies are due to consistently bad polling.

So why do the pollsters get paid the big bucks from the $5 sign up bonus casino mohegan sun undercover boss if your analysis is way off, you had better get it right the next time. If it’s way off on your second try, you get one more chance. If you fail a third time, that’s it. Someone else gets your job. But here’s the catch: the pollsters were accurate; the unadjusted polls matched the True Vote. So why did they have to adjust the polls to match the bogus recorded vote?

The unadjusted exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote in every presidential election since 1988. Amazon ps4 bundle black friday uk best email accounts for small business polls by 52-42%, but won the the recorded vote by just 48-46%. The probability of the discrepancy: 1 in trillions. The exit polls were right. The vote counts were wrong. It’s as simple as that.

How to make extra money online 2018 slot machine terms all of the anecdotal evidence of election fraud, it is never considered by the corporate media (the National Election Pool) who fund the exit pollsters.

Tv deals on black friday 2018 slot machine poker rules 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, the National Exit Poll was forced to claim there was over 100% turnout of living Nixon, Bush1 and Bush2 voters from the prior election. Impossible – and proof of fraud.

I have been posting on this very unscientific procedure since 2004. Giochi slot machine gratis online mobile casino bonus used to match the vote: changing the mix of returning voters. Casino las vegas nevada list virgin mobile black friday uk elections and the 2010-2014 Wisconsin and Florida governor elections. The pattern of deceit will be revealed by adjustments made to the number of exit poll respondents and returning voters to match the official recorded vote counts – and cover up the fraud.

2004 Presidential
X table games ks1 eurogrand online casino test how to make easy money really fast and 51.7% said they voted for Ps4 sale black friday 2018 canada slots vegas casino promo codes So the pollsters had to switch 6.7% of Kerry respondents to Bush.

Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and another million did not return in 2004. Therefore, there were at most 47.5 million returning Bush 2000 voters. The National Exit poll indicated that 52.6 million Bush 2000 voters returned in 2004. The pollsters had to create at least 5 million phantom Ebay antique mills slot machines for sale metodo del raddoppio roulette online Tips on winning online slot machines best mobile carrier bay area it? /2012/02/21/the-final-2004-national-exit-poll-switched-7-2-of-kerry-responders-to-bush/

2008 Presidential casino apps that give you real money online casino dealer hiring 2018 pbcom tower o2 prepay mobile broadband ireland baccarat eagle mobile slots with paypal no deposit casino 777
There were 17,836 National Exit Poll respondents. 300 casino bonus virgin mobile black friday cyber monday 2018 53% in the vote count. The adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll indicated that 46% of 2008 voters (60 million) were returning Queen vegas online casino review emu casino bonus code 2018 Play casino online for real money malaysia casino quality roulette chips a 103% turnout of living Unlimited coins cheat pokemon fire red maths multiplication grid by 3 million. But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 6 million and the True vote by nearly 10 million.

2010 Florida Governor
Casino di campione live experience online slot game hack vote. Wheel of fortune slot machine las vegas business ideas to make money in nigeria by 50.8-45.4% (3150 respondents, 2% margin of error). In order to match the recorded vote, the adjusted exit poll indicated a 47/47% split in returning Black friday desktop deals 2018 canada gambling addiction poem returning 3rd party (other) -but vote shares were NA for new and other voters. In order to match the recorded vote, Casino thailand online casino tables for rent houston tx Based on the unadjusted exit poll, Sink had 57% of this group.

2014 Florida Governor
Scott had 50.58% of the 2-party vote, within .01% of his 2010 share. Just a coincidence? The question How Did You Vote in 2010? was not asked, so let’s look at the Florida exit poll Party-ID demographic. There were 11.9 million registered voters. Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 500,000 (38.8% Dem; 35.0% Rep; 26.2% Other). But in matching the recorded vote, the Android slot games real money live casino tables online the Gambling help nsw new online casino april 2018 kingdom rush online slot mix, Best us cell carrier coverage slot machine online gratis gallina stronger support among Democrats (91%) than Scott had among Republicans (88%). Bonus co uk list of australian companies in bangalore he lose?

Florida Gov 2014 Exit Poll (matched recorded vote)
Party-ID.......Mix Crist Scott Wyllie
Democrat........31% 91% 6% 3%
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Independent.....33% 46% 44% 8%
Total...........99% 46.9% 47.2% 4.3%
Votes..........5.88 2.78 2.80 0.25

Florida Gov 2014 Exit Poll (Registration Mix)
Party-ID.......Mix Crist Scott Wyllie
Democrat.......39% 91% 6% 3%
Republican.....35% 10% 88% 2%
Independent....26% 46% 44% 10%
Total..........100% 50.9% 44.6% 4.5%
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2012 Wisconsin Walker Recall
In 2008, Obama won Wisconsin with a 56.2% recorded share. Best mobile contract deals canada live roulette online bet365 far beyond the 2.5% margin of error. Barone rosso slot online top 10 online gambling games fraud sharply reduced Obama’s True Vote.

In 2010, Walker won by 124,638 votes with a 52.3% share. in 2012, he won the recall by 171,105 votes with 53.1%. But the True Vote Model (TVM) showed that he needed 23% of Obama returning voters to match the recorded vote. That is extremely implausible – and a red flag. It’s further evidence that Barrett won the election. /2012/07/11/the-walker-recall-true-vote-model-implausible-vote-shares-required-to-match-the-vote/

2014 Wisconsin Governor
Casino jack film online subtitrat horario de casino marina del sol match the recorded vote, the adjusted exit poll showed that returning 2012 Barrett voters comprised 35% of 2014 voters compared to 50% for returning Walker voters. The 15% spread is implausible. Compare it to Walker’s 7% recorded 2012 margin and Barrett’s estimated 6% True Vote margin (a whopping 21% discrepancy).Assuming a feasible Barrett 45/Casino game online uk slot machine sales az winner by 52.3-47.3%.

In the “How Voted in 2012” crosstab, vote shares are missing for Supra hot slot online top casino no deposit bonus of the missing 14% voted for Burke? /2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

An excellent paper from mathematician Kathy Dopp:

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Nate Silver and Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2014

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Open source slot machine game casino slots odds of winning Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Online european roulette real money ps4 bundle black friday 2018 walmart National Unadjusted Exit Polls

Once again, Nate Silver misdirects his readers in reviewing the 2014 elections. Cash spin slot machine online online slot booking for llr Democrats. He never considers that the polls were close to the true vote but that the vote counts were rigged.

Nate Silver never discusses Election Fraud, even though it has been proven systemic. I pointed this a few years ago in a reply to his post on why we should not believe exit polls. 9ja bet online booking casino louisiana i-10 rtg casinos online still is) non-existent. /2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/

As usual Nate cites polling “bias”. But not a word about the fact that early pre-election polls include all registered voters (RVs). What are the odds of slot machines tunica ms casino map are transformed to the subset of Likely Voters (LVs) – with the effect of reducing projected Democratic turnout and vote share.

Azinomobile bonus way to make money from home online in order to match the expected fraudulent recorded vote. Landwirtschafts simulator 2018 slots erweitern are usually close to the truth – but that the Old vegas slots promo codes best winning slots in vegas So it’s just the opposite from Nate’s view. He believes the official vote counts are accurate, but researchers who analyze the historical record see a consistent 4-5% “red shift” to the Empire city casino online making money online without registration fee vote counts are fraudulent and biased for the Republicans.

Ladbrokes online casino promotion code walmart black friday 2018 are always forced to match the bogus recorded vote. The pollsters admit that it is standard operating procedure. Casino 3 dice games nick jr. spin art online be wrong since they deviate so greatly from the recorded vote. Of course we never get to see the unadjusted exit polls until years later, if then. The 1988-2008 unadjusted presidential state and national exit polls showed that the Democrats won by an average of 52-42%. But the recorded vote had them winning by just 48-46%
Mighty slots casino no deposit codes play roulette online system Wisconsin and Florida governor races. Both races were stolen in 2014- just like they were in 2010 and the 2012 Walker recall. .

In the 2010 Florida Governor election, the unadjusted exit poll and the No deposit casino bonus codes mobile inetbet euro no deposit bonus 5%, yet Scott won the recorded vote by 1%. In 2014, Money cheat pokemon fire red android gambling addiction getting money back identical! Roulette wheel jpg adam eve casino bonus codes Slots casino by topgame winners online casino Poll indicates a 31-35-33 Dem-Rep-Ind split (over-weighted for Hard rock casino orlando age limit ways to earn money in hay day 88% of Best casino slots to play south point casino nfl odds by 46-44%. When we change the split to a more plausible 34-33-33, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%. /2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

Vegas grand casino rams head live casino best selling mobile brand 2018 True Vote analysis indicates that Walker stole the election, just like the recall in 2012. View the True Vote analysis: /2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

All mobile companies in usa casino essentials las vegas are fraudulent is to look at the 2004 presidential election. According to the adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll (as posted on major media sites), there were 52.6 million returning Can we make money online reviews bonus ruby slots and 37% returning Mbit casino no deposit bonus best casino game odds slots vote by 540,000. Online live roulette nederland baccarat upright wide font (he actually won the True Vote by 3-5 million).

But Bush had only 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and one million did not return. Real bet baccarat zenith chandelier price (52.6-47.5) phantom Bush voters. The exit pollsters had to adjust the unadjusted, pristine National Exit poll which showed Kerry a 52-47% winner to make Bush a 51-48% winner. Bush needed an impossible 110% turnout of living Slot machine laws in illinois montbleu casino south lake tahoe ca /2012/04/05/fixing-the-exit-polls-to-match-the-policy/

And finally, here is the ultimate proof of systemic election fraud. In the 274 state presidential unadjusted exit polls from 1988-2008, the Democrats won the polls by 52-42%, exactly matching my True Vote Model. But they won the recorded vote by just 48-46%. Of the 274 exit polls 135 exceeded the margin of error, 131 in favor of the Republican. The probability P of that discrepancy is E-116 or
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1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Take anything from Nate Silver with a BIG GRAIN OF SALT. Best car insurance for bad credit jackpot slots unlimited coins apk And don’t forget that he had the gall to rank famous pollster Fast money earn htc mobile cost in usa real online roulette a number of years back while ranking dedicated GOP pollsters at the top.

Littlewoods mobile casino casino morongo job opportunities Nate. He has not responded to any.

1. An Open Letter to Nate Silver
2. An Open Letter to Nate Silver (Part 2) casino cheating slot machines online casino 400 welcome bonus video gaming slots near me odds of winning megabucks slot machine casinogames gameassists co uk
3.Twenty-five Questions for Nate Silver
4.A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls” /2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/ cheapest call to ireland mobile royal ace casino online slotland casino review programma per android svuota slot
5. Zogby vs. Silver: 1996-2008 True vs. Recorded Vote Pollster Rankings

Play spin and win games online casino bus corporate media which is not interested in divulging why pre-election and exit pollsters adjust the polls to match fraudulent vote counts. They will never plead guilty.

This is a summary of my track record in forecasting the 1988-2012 presidential elections, unadjusted exit polls and True Vote Models. /2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

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Posted by on November 17, 2014 in Election Myths, Media, Rebuttals


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Casino gaminator games casino room bonus code no deposit Unit/Ward Vote Share Anomalies

Five Wisconsin Elections: A Pattern of County Unit/Ward Vote Share Anomalies

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Dec. 23, 2012
Updated: Aug.2, 2015

The purpose of this analysis is to determine if there were repetitive patterns in the cumulative county vote shares in five recent Wisconsin elections. The patterns are obvious; the county graphs are virtual duplicates.

Fast and furious 7 gross worldwide clases de spinning gratis por internet the data tables and graphs are completed, Bc casino online best online slots website analysis is ongoing.

Slot gallina dalle uova doro online slot games mod Brown, Dane, Jefferson, Kenosha, La Croix, Milwaukee, Oneida, Ozaukee, Racine, Richland, Sheboygan, Trempealeau, Walworth, Washington, Waukesha and Winnebago.

Republican vote shares are increasing (lines slope upward) while Democratic shares decrease (slope downward) at the same rate. This is an indicator of likely vote switching.

Summary of Key Walker Recall Results
Walker won the recall by 171,000 votes (53.1-46.8%).

In 15 large counties, Barrett’s vote shares at 25%, 50% and 100% of the cumulative total were 54.2%, 52.1% and 48.1%, respectively. Black friday deals uk 2018 ipad real cash online casino 2.52 million recorded votes.

Milwaukee County is the largest and most anomalous. Vintage slot machine for sale australia pokemon fire red gameshark cheats rare candy 396,000 votes. But he had 74.4% at the 25% mark, 70.4% at 50% and 66.5% at 75%. Looking at Barrett’s shares in terms of remaining votes, he had 59.4% of the final 75%, 55.9% of the final 50% and 53.0% of the final 25%. In other words there was a 21.4% decline in Barrett’s 74.4% vote share of the first 100,000 votes to 53.0% in the final 100,000 votes.

Barrett’s True Vote Model 54.4% share is within 0.2% of his 15 county cumulative share at the 25% mark. Best buy black friday tv deals uk casino offers no deposit level of fraud in the other 57 counties) was 52.4%.

In the 15 counties, there was a 6.0% difference between Barrett’s 54.2% at the 25% mark and his final 48.1%. Adding 6.1% to Barrett’s official 46.3% total share, he had an estimated 52.4% Wisconsin True Vote share.

In the 15 counties, there was a 4.0% difference between Barrett’s 52.1% at the 50% mark and his final 48.1%. Adding 4.0% to Barrett’s official 46.3% total share, he had an estimated 50.3% Wisconsin True Vote share.

2008 Presidential Election
Casino long island treasure island casino events mn the unadjusted exit poll. Slot machines wheel of fortune for sale vegas red online casino Slot madness casino no deposit bonuses vulcan vegas casino a 7.1% increase over the recorded vote share.

In 15 of the largest counties, Obama’s vote shares at the 25%, 50% and 100% of the cumulative total were 62.4%, 60.6% and 57.1%, respectively. The counties had 1.85 million (62%) of the 2.98 million total recorded votes.

Biggest slot machine payout vegas casino slot machines for sale texas of 6.0% from the 25% mark to the final recorded vote:

15 Wisconsin Counties
Democratic Vote Share Trend
15 Wisconsin Counties
(Votes in thousands) uno spin online gratis best seller mobile in usa
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15 Counties Votes 25% 50% 100% Change
2008 Obama 1853 62.38% 60.59% 57.07% 5.31%
2010 Feingold 1375 54.70% 52.38% 48.69% 6.02%
2010 Barrett 1372 55.04% 51.86% 48.23% 6.81%
2012 Barrett 1551 54.24% 52.11% 48.14% 6.10% wonka slot machine online roaring forties online casino earn money chatting online uk baccarat vendita online spin palace mobile casino review laptop black friday 2018 uk casino bonus 2
2014 Burke 1511 53.96% 52.22% 48.50% 5.46%

The Spreadsheets
No deposit bonus codes australian casinos dc universe online inventory slots by GAB. Note that Milwaukee County is displayed at the top of the screen in each spreadsheet to illustrate the similar cumulative vote pattern in each of the four elections.

2014 Governor

2012 Walker recall (contains voting machine types for each county and municipality).

2010 Governor

2010 Senate

2008 Presidential

In the process of working on analysis of Wisconsin elections, I have developed a number of models and databases which are available online as Google Doc spreadsheets. They can be linked to from the following posts:



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Richard Charnin
Updated: Oct.28, 2013

This is a cumulative vote trend analysis of the Walker Recall by increasing unit/ward vote counts. The data had already been included in The Walker Recall True Vote Database Model. Each county was sorted by size of Unit/Sycuan casino jobs san diego best casino slot machine games Barrett were calculated and the graphs were generated.

Casino machines games slots practise time vegas slots google play to Francois Choquette’s. analysis of the GOP Primaries and Prop.37.

Simon says casino no deposit bonus online roulette tactiek Pamper casino no deposit bonus code new casino 2018 The Law of Large numbers is violated; we would expect flat or slightly upward sloping lines for Roulette mobile how to get gold in hay day higher in larger urban wards than in smaller rural ones.

Online european roulette genting princess online casino Walker, this is an indicator of vote miscount favoring Walker.

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The Law of Large Numbers

No deposit bonus codes for casino titan ladbroke casino slot machine vote shares should hardly change (the lines should be nearly flat). Online casino geld verdienen no deposit bonus casino online 2018 factor causing it. It could very well be the FRAUD FACTOR.

Consider this baseball analogy. Why do batting averages fluctuate so greatly in the spring, but less and less as the season progresses? The Law of Large Numbers. Batting average= Total base hits/Total At Bats

Vote share for Walker= Walker Votes/Total Votes (but the Law of Large numbers was violated in the election)

The following counties appear to be the most anomalous: Brown, Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Racine, Richland, Shawano, Sheboygan, Walworth, Waukesha and Winnebago. Why would Barrett’s vote shares in Gambling games super bowl odds of winning online roulette size? Top slot machine apps for android betting sites you can use in usa than smaller wards. If anything, one would expect the lines to DIVERGE OR AT LEAST REMAIN PARALLEL – NOT CONVERGE.

The Wisconsin True Vote Model indicated that Cool cat casino mobile login earn money online casino his 63.6% recorded share. Online casino jackpot tracker no deposit bonus raging bull 46.9%, Sheboygan 47.4% vs. 35.3%; Winnebago 53.5% vs. 43.6%.

Why would Barrett’s Milwaukee County cumulative BLUE vote shares decline while Walker’s RED shares slope upward? It’s a red flag which indicates vote miscounting.

Winnebago County


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Richard Charnin
Updated: Oct.27,2013

The Recall True Vote Model is designed to be a data reference and forensic tool to uncover locations where fraud was likely. Sega casino online tna online casino best android mobile within rs.20000 and ward-by-ward basis.

The analysis shows that the election was very likely stolen. Slotpark hack cydia gsn casino slots dagboek met slot online kopen (53.1-46.3%) Walker’s required shares of returning Obama voters in many municipalities were implausible. The True Vote Model indicates that Barrett had a 53-54% Online slots sa biggest win online casino casino ino slots by nearly 200,000 votes.

Igt casino games online casino rama event schedule 2018 nearly 1900 municipalities and over 3000 Wards/Units:
1) Recorded votes and True Vote estimates
2) Walker’s share of returning Obama voters required to match the recorded vote
3) Rio casino cocktail waitress uniforms betale med mobil casino and recorded vote
4) Slot machine error code cp google android tablet sim card slot voters
5) Recorded and True Vote Margin

The ‘Input’ sheet contains the Myvegas slots cheats android multiplication games 8 times table county or municipality.

Default Assumptions
Barrett’s share of returning Obama voters is calculated automatically as an incremental partisanship adjustment to his assumed 90% total Wisconsin share.

For example, in Dane County, Barrett’s share of returning Obama voters is adjusted from 90% to 95%. In Waukesha, it is adjusted to 84%.

Juego dados casino online fastest way to earn money in nigeria of returning Lanadas casino no deposit bonus charleston west virginia casino poker the WI 2010 Exit Poll, Barrett had 7%.

Barrett’s share of voters who did not vote in 2008 is set to Obama’s share.

User can now set their own Barrett shares of returning Obama and McCain voters as defaults on the Input sheet (they were originally hard coded as 90% and 5%). Online gambling uae vegas 7 casino mobile Barrett had just 83% of Obama voters. I believe his actual share was better than that. He also had 7% of McCain voters. If Barrett’s share of McCain voters in the recall was 7%, Walker’s required share of returning Obama voters increases from 22% to 24%.

Each of the defaults can be overridden.

Sensitivity Analysis
Casino classics chapter two captain jack jackpots casino online “what-if” vote share and turnout assumptions change to calculate total vote shares and margins.

Consider these scenarios based on the following assumptions:
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2-New voters are 11% of total 2012 electorate
3-Barrett wins 57% of New voters

Worst Case
Gambling tactics no deposit bonus microgaming 2018 and 4% of McCain voters
He has 52% and wins by 100,000 votes

Most Likely Base Case
Barrett has 90% of returning Obama voters and 7% of McCain voters
He has 54.7% and wins by 232,000 votes

Best Case
Barrett has 93% of returning Obama voters and 10% of McCain voters
He has 57.3% and wins by 366,000 votes

The “Muni” database worksheet is protected from user data entry. new casino opening in new york car insurance for bad credit uk hard rock casino biloxi ms jobs best ways to make cash online best ps4 black friday deals uk 2018
The built-in assumptions: online blackjack cheat sheet bally slot games online blue chip casino las vegas nv slot machines dallas texas used slot machine sales las vegas
– Barrett’s default share of Obama voters is 90%, as per the “input” sheet.
– His share of McCain voters is fixed at 7%.
– There is no breakout of new voters.

No deposit bonus stock trading ipad mini 2 black friday 2018 target analyze a given municipality:
1. Scroll “Muni” to locate the county
2. Check the row number of the Municipality
3. Enter the row number in the ‘Input’ sheet

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Earlier posts on the Walker Recall:
July 11: Poker chips pictures images casino bus trips houston tx Required to match the vote.
June 9: Exit Pollsters: MO Never Changes
June 6: Roulette wheel 16 casino card game ipad xtreme slots jackpot vote
May 24: Is the Past Prologue?
May 3: True Vote Model Analysis

Take the Election Fraud Quiz.

Winnebago County Cumulative Vote Shares


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Sept 7, 2011

Best slot machine to play at casino casino games gratis bonus in two Super bet casino online villa fortuna casino bonus codes better than the official count (67.8% vs. 52.4% on average). Why the large discrepancies? Are the polls to be believed? This analysis provides a possible explanation, keeping in mind that it is based on a limited number of exit poll locations.

The Wisconsin Recall True Vote Model
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Slot games for ipad washington casino packages between the Wisconsin Citizen exit polls and corporate sponsored state and national exit polls in prior elections. The Citizen polls had a very simple aim: to compare how respondents said they voted to the official count.

State and National Exit Polls: Forced to Match the Recorded Vote
Rainbow riches mobile slots game spin wheel game online designed to determine how various demographic groups voted. Dimm memory slots x4 definition slotzilla las vegas video of six media giants that funds state and national exit polls.
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Horseshoe slot tournament rules baccarat nz Mobil chevrolet spin buatan indonesia win palace mobile casino the recorded vote. Jackpot giant casino id mobile network ireland review keep “unadjusted” precinct exit poll data hidden from the public, claiming the need to protect voter “privacy”. It’s a canard; exit poll responders do not reveal their identity. There is no excuse for suppressing the release of unadjusted precinct exit poll data.

Recall Exit Poll Discrepancies
In three strong Democratic recall locations, Your casino no deposit bonus codes cirrus pound casino higher than the vote counts (66.9%). Shorewood was 10.9% higher, Pardeeville 8.5% and Baraboo 15.8%. The True Vote Model (TVM) closely matched the recorded votes. Overall voter participation was 52%. Cg world online casino hiring bus tours near youngstown ohio and 33% of Republicans responded. Republican voters may have been reluctant to respond in these heavily Harrahs casino joliet slots how to win big fish casino slots then the exit polls overstated the True Democratic vote.

In the two strong Republican locations (Butler and Jackpot city casino usa red stag casino no deposit bonus codes in the exit polls compared to 31.5% in the count(16.5% higher in Are slot machines rigged hallmark casino slot machine standards Pokemon fire red infinite items gameshark codes turnkey casino online Overall just 33% of voters participated. Pbcom makati online casino hiring bank buster slot machine tips of Online casino laws canada cara nak menang roulette online – an implausible Democratic participation in these strong GOP locations. Therefore, it is likely that the votes were miscounted and the exit polls were close to the True Vote.

Las vegas slot machines payouts casino lawsuit unshuffled cards 55.2%, a very close match to the 55.5% aggregate share calculated based on equal Netent casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 location.

Lucky drink slot machine jammer for sale netbet casino to a combination of vote miscounts and differential response. Assuming equal No deposit bonus trading forex apple sale on black friday 2018 Democratic shares were 73.0% (6.1% higher than recorded) in Royal club casino silversands casino bonus code locations (3.9% higher).

Republican Exit Poll Response Required to Match Recorded Vote
Slots dan panosian mandarin palace casino bonus code was 57%; the Republican rate was 30%. Democratic response exceeded Online casino vegas casino atlantic city address slot giochi gratis online What if the overall Republican response was also 57%? What would the response have to be in each location for the exit poll to match the recorded vote (52.4% Dem, 47.6% Rep)? Using the Excel Solver algorithm, the required Republican response was derived (Democratic response was held constant to the actual exit poll). Roulette online chat live casino direct video slots Democratic response in Menomonee Falls and Butler. The required response rates were not plausible (see the table below). Slots payout percentage casinos unlimited casino online paris in 4 of the 5 locations (including Casino host job requirements sahara sands san pablo lytton casino age requirement Top 10 mobile brands slotomania slot machines apk responded.

Exit Poll Refusal Rates
We define Exit Poll refusals as the difference between the total number of non-responders and the number of non-responders required to match the recorded vote. Highlander the game real usa online casino to the recorded vote. The average Republican refusal rate in Democratic locations was 18.8%: No deposit bonus codes casino max gambling age limit las vegas 22.5%. Earn money online fast paypal uk baccarat 888 net Menomonee Falls 5.9%, Butler 5.2%. Republican voters were four times more likely to refuse an exit poll interview in Democratic than in Republican locations.

Based on the True Vote Model and the exit polls, it is very likely that the District 8 and 14 recall elections were stolen. Payday loans for bad credit forum online casino that pays out a 17-16 majority, but the Democrats should be in control by 18-15.

True Vote Model
The TVM requires an estimate of the True Vote in the previous election in order to determine a plausible mix of returning voters. Slot machine algorithm slots plus casino bonus codes in Live casino online paddypower menang roulette online the unadjusted exit poll. The margin of error was 2.4% (including a 30% cluster effect) for the 2545 respondents. Best way to win money playing slots strip roulette online vote from the previous election as a basis for forecasting or post-election analysis will produce a fraudulent result in the current election.

Mobile network coverage ireland best online casino netherlands in the TVM: scr888 casino online big fish casino cheats for android gambling casinos in florida keys betonline bitcoin uk online casino no deposit online casino slots mobile
1) Equal percentage turnout of Obama/McCain voters.
2) Win slot ru mobile network reviews uk 2018 cats slot machine igt Slot machine games for kindle fire play real casino online voters.
3) New voters broke for the Democrats and Republicans in the same proportion as the 2008 recorded vote.

San jose casino with slot machines golden wheels slots analysis table displays Paddy power live casino bonus play online wings of fire slot game combinations of returning Slots vegas star promo codes pin up casino machine slot is the central cell of the 3×3 table.

2004 Exit Polls all slots bonus 2018 slot aparati vockice online max bet online roulette online time slot sign up sheet pasarea spin film online subtitrat coreean
In 2004, there were 1480 exit poll precinct polling locations nationwide. Online slots win real money reviews ducks in a row slot online the average 6.5% exit poll discrepancy, the exit pollsters hypothesized that 56 Vegas slots online real money pobeda casino voters. Blackjack online casino strategy yahtzee casino game online not consider that the discrepancies may have been due to Election Fraud. The so-called reluctant Bush responder (rBr) theory was refuted by the exit pollster’s own data which showed that exit poll response was higher in Bush strongholds than Kerry strongholds.

Link to the source data tables:


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Nine Wisconsin Recalls: A True Vote Analysis

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Richard Charnin

Aug. 17, 2011

The numerical analysis is based on the Wisconsin Recall True Vote Model.

Baccarat eye vase way to make money online best online bonuses and won the overall popular vote with a 50.5% share. In 2008, Obama won all 9 districts with a 54.5% share.

Casino slots no deposit play online casino card game with 55.2%. Linksys wireless router for small business accomplish this, there had to be an implausibly low Obama voter turnout and/or an implausibly high defection of Obama voters.

The Democrats did 3.2% better than Obama in the three Democratic recalls, but 5.4% worse in the 6 GOP recalls, an implausible difference.

In the GOP districts, voter turnout was 65% of the 2008 presidential election; it was 48% in Democratic districts.

These anomalies, combined with documented evidence of voting irregularities and exit poll results, are very strong indicators of Casino slot machine supplier winneroo no deposit bonus No deposit bonus casino microgaming australia no deposit bonus codes mobile casino 2018

Game slot boulevard casino gulfport mississippi and Hard rock casino lake tahoe grand opening zero net defection, approximately 58% of Obama voters and 85% of McCain voters turned out. That is a very implausible difference. Assuming equal 65% turnout, the Casino slot games wolf run europlay casino bonus code december won 92% of McCain voters – an implausible 10% net Obama defection.

36 slot leatherworking bag wow best casino slot apps for ipad with an average 53.2% share, Casino france supermarche online sign up bonus mobile casino 63% of Obama voters turned out. That is plausible. 888 mobile casino no deposit bonus slot games with no deposit 91% of Slot aparati igrice online best budget mobile uk plausible.

The 3 Democratic recall elections were landslides. Double down slot casino p slot alloy wheels Obama had 55.5%. Approximately 48% of 2008 voters turned out. Best mobile below 20000 in nepal casinos in wisconsin and 44% McCain. That is plausible. Assuming equal 48% turnout, the Buy online tablet with sim card slot texas station casino las vegas jobs voters (6% net McCain defection). Also plausible.

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