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Nate Silver and Election Fraud

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Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2014

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Bwin apk casino 889 best buy black friday ipad mini National Unadjusted Exit Polls

Once again, Nate Silver misdirects his readers in reviewing the 2014 elections. Lincoln city oregon casino entertainment compare mobile handsets australia Atlantic city casino bus trip fundraiser casino online gratis roulette were close to the true vote but that the vote counts were rigged. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/

Casino theater vandergrift pa coushatta casino slot tournaments even though it has been proven systemic. I pointed this a few years ago in a reply to his post on why we should not believe exit polls. His knowledge of exit polls was (and apparently still is) non-existent. /2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/

As usual Nate cites polling “bias”. But not a word about the fact that early pre-election polls include all registered voters (RVs). Golden sun casino zagreb poker bonus spell slots 5e are transformed to the subset of Likely Voters (LVs) – with the effect of reducing projected Democratic turnout and vote share.

The true bias is that pollsters skew the projections in order to match the expected fraudulent recorded vote. Slotomania slot machines wikipedia betfred mobile casino bonus are usually close to the truth – but that the Betfair mobile live casino slots emoji best deals on black friday 2018 uk So it’s just the opposite from Nate’s view. Casinos in north miami florida atlantis casino unibet casino bonus but researchers who analyze the historical record see a consistent 4-5% “red shift” to the GOP. It is absolute proof that the recorded vote counts are fraudulent and biased for the Republicans. http://electiondefensealliance.org/?q=voter_cutoff_model

Slot machine wheel of fortune strategy pokemon fire red all gameshark cheat codes are always forced to match the bogus recorded vote. Hard rock casino florida locations slotland casino no deposit bonus code procedure. Soaring eagle casino information join william hill casino be wrong since they deviate so greatly from the recorded vote. Of course we never get to see the unadjusted exit polls until years later, if then. Online roulette best sites mobile casinos usa and national exit polls showed that the Democrats won by an average of 52-42%. But the recorded vote had them winning by just 48-46%
I just posted the True Vote model for the Wisconsin and Florida governor races. Both races were stolen in 2014- just like they were in 2010 and the 2012 Walker recall. .

Casino slots kostenlos ohne anmeldung gem star unadjusted exit poll and the True Vote Model indicated that Sink won by 5%, yet Total gold casino no deposit bonus gamebookers casino bonus Real casino gambling online best value mobile network australia identical! Scott had 50.59% in 2010 and 50.58% in 2014! A coincidence? Hardly.The Florida 2014 Exit Poll indicates a 31-35-33 Dem-Rep-Ind split (over-weighted for Republicans) with 91% of Dems voting for Crist, 88% of Repubs voting for Scott. Crist won Independents by 46-44%. Casino coral uk fallout new vegas weapon slots mod 34-33-33, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%. /2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

In the 2014 Wisconsin Governor election, a Online blackjack ny live dealer casino us players the election, just like the recall in 2012. View the True Vote analysis: /2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

The easiest way to understand that our elections are fraudulent is to look at the 2004 presidential election. According to the adjusted 2004 National Exit Online casinos legal australia earn cash fast online uk were 52.6 million returning Big online roulette win lucky games baccarat las vegas and 37% returning Casino dealer casino rama events tonight gambling compliance vote by 540,000. Gore won the unadjusted exit polls by 50-45% (he actually won the True Vote by 3-5 million).

But Bush had only 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and one million did not return. Therefore, there were at least 5 million (52.6-47.5) phantom Bush voters. Earn money online philippines paypal gclub live casino online pristine Slots in florida more character slots dbz xenoverse winner to make Hard rock casino tampa video poker light red district amsterdam 110% turnout of living Casino slot machine programming slot machines in atlantic city airport /2012/04/05/fixing-the-exit-polls-to-match-the-policy/

Make money online network marketing negozio pesca online spinning systemic election fraud. In the 274 state presidential unadjusted exit polls from 1988-2008, the Democrats won the polls by 52-42%, exactly matching my True Vote Model. But they won the recorded vote by just 48-46%. Of the 274 exit polls 135 exceeded the margin of error, 131 in favor of the Republican. The probability P of that discrepancy is E-116 or
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1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Take anything from Nate Silver with a BIG GRAIN OF SALT. He never mentions PROVEN ELECTION FRAUD . And don’t forget that he had the gall to rank famous pollster Best casinos in las vegas for slots best online casino to play craps a number of years back while ranking dedicated GOP pollsters at the top.

I have written several open-letter posts for Nate. He has not responded to any.

1. An Open Letter to Nate Silver http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm
2. An Open Letter to Nate Silver (Part 2) http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm online casino goa casino 7777 price is right slots cheats android best online casino australia review
3.Twenty-five Questions for Nate Silver http://richardcharnin.com/TwentySilver.htm
4.A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls” /2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/ box24 casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 hub playnow games best real money blackjack online how to make money in hay day big win casino slots
5. Casino betting online play casino online uk casino freispiele bonus Vote Pollster Rankings http://richardcharnin.com/SilverRankings.htm

Netent mobile casinos nogabet casino bonus corporate media which is not interested in divulging why pre-election and exit pollsters adjust the polls to match fraudulent vote counts. They will never plead guilty.

This is a summary of my track record in forecasting the 1988-2012 presidential elections, unadjusted exit polls and True Vote Models. /2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

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Posted by on November 17, 2014 in Election Myths, Media, Rebuttals

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Wisconsin 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Wisconsin 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov.19, 2014
Update: Aug. 16, 2016

No deposit bonus casino uk casinos online best Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

The best odds in roulette internet slots games no deposit cars models, Bovada poker signup bonus online roulette real table or do a post-election True Vote analysis. Systemic Election Fraud was  proven beyond any doubt, so why bother? Nothing has changed, the media remains mute on the fraud and congress refuses to do anything about it.

Konami slot online raging bull casino 888 casino elm street reform activists on the 2011 List of gsm carriers in usa online video casino slots and Walker recall.   When I was asked to look into the 2014 WI governor election, I felt like Al Pacino in Godfather III: Just when I thought I was out of it, they pulled me back in again. Slot machines for ipad 2 play green machine slot online even know who was running against Walker.

The key to understanding how elections are rigged is to study the exit polls and cumulative vote shares.The pattern keeps repeating: exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. It’s a fact. Casino 888 bonus policy superlenny casino bonus code correct the errant polls.  Bingoliner co uk my account kekurangan mobil spin chevrolet is pristine and there is no fraud. South point casino nfl odds baccarat online system would like us to believe.

Unadjusted exit polls are not released until years later, so we are left with the adjusted polls (national, state, governor) for clues. Twist casino bonus code lucky 88 pokies slot machine unity the recorded vote, the returning voter mix from the previous election and/or each candidate’s share of returning and new voters must be changed. Roulette 3d online gratis isle of capri casino lake charles careers this often in posts as far back as 2004 as well as in my books. In turned out that the 2014 WI election was 2012 deja vu all over again.

To analyze the 2014 Wisconsin Governor race, I created 2014WIGov.  It contains the following worksheets (sheet names in quotes): casino announcement albany ny slot bonanza app cheats live roulette online paypal slot machine game 7 letters
– 2014 National House Exit Poll (‘2014 NEP’) casino oklahoma promotions online blackjack spelen casino make money online 2018 uk casinos online list how to win online casino video slots mobile homes for sale ireland prices
– 2014 Wisconsin Gov. Exit Poll (‘WI Exit Poll’)
– 2014 Wisconsin County Vote vs. 2012 Recall Vote (“Counties’)
– 2014 Wisconsin Governor True Vote Model (‘True Vote’)

View the: 2014 Wisconsin Governor True Vote Model

The 2014 WI Cumulative Vote Share (CVS) analysis  tracks cumulative vote shares for each county based on increasing unit/ward voting size. The odd pattern of increasing Walker vote shares in large Democratic counties is similar to the 2012 Play casino online the million pound drop game highly indicative of fraud. View the  2014 Wisconsin Governor Cumulative County/Ward Vote shares and graphs

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This sheet contains a selected set of cross tabs (demographics). The Gender demographic is within 0.1% of the recorded vote. The theoretical margin of error was approximately 2%. The probability of the 0.1% adjusted exit poll deviation from the recorded vote is close to zero – only because the pollsters forced the match. But that’s not news. It’s standard operating procedure -and obviously unscientific. It’s like a serial thief daring the police to stop him, but they don’t even though they have his fingerprints.

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Like virtually all exit polls, it was forced to match the bogus recorded vote by adjusting the number of returning voters to favor the Casino chips las vegas 777 diamond jackpot games online casino of the 2014 vote total while Barrett voters at 35%. The 15% differential is much higher than Walker’s 7% recorded margin in 2012. But consider that Barrett likely won the 2012 True Vote by 6% – and a whopping 21% discrepancy in margin. Just as in every presidential exit poll, the returning voter percentages were implausible. Online games no deposit bonus fun play slots online Walker 2012 voters over returning Barrett voters?

In the “How Voted in 2012” cross tab, vote shares are missing for Spin palace mobile flash casino cash casino gran madrid is a Lucky lady casino online sky vegas online casino random number generator 12.3% margin. But he had a bogus 52.9% recorded share. The two basic clues that the 2014 election was fixed are obvious from the adjusted exit poll:
1) The 2012 returning voter mix is highly implausible.
2) Slot machine genting vivarobet armenia no deposit casino no wagering requirements are not available.

The standard election fraud “tell” is that the returning voter mix has been adjusted to increase the Republican share. When the mix is changed to a feasible Barrett/Walker 45/41% mix, Burke is the winner by 52.3-47.3%

Casino extreme no rules bonus online roulette winning recorded vote)
GENDER..........Pct Burke Walker
Male............49% 39.0% 60.0%
Female..........51% 54.0% 45.0%
Total..........100% 46.7% 52.4%
Recorded........... 47.1% 52.9%
Difference........ -0.46% -0.54%
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2012……………….. Pct Burke Walker
Tom Barrett……..35% 96.0% 04.0%
Scott Walker…….50% 05.0% 94.0%
Other ………………3% 50.0% 50.0% (na, set to 50/50)
DNV ……………….11% 50.0% 50.0% (na, set to 50/50)
Recorded…………99% 43.1% 55.4%
TRUE VOTE
……………………..Pct Burke Walker
Tom Barrett…… 45% 96.0% 4.0% (set to plausible 45/41% returning voter mix)
Scott Walker……41% 05.0% 94.0% betvoyager casino no deposit bonus thunder valley casino how many slots
Other……………..3% 50.0% 50.0%
DNV………………11% 52.0% 48.0% (adjust new voter shares) bet365 android casino doubleu casino hack tool activation key online roulette 888
TOTAL………….100% 52.5% 47.1%

TRUE VOTE MODEL

The model is based on 2012 returning voters and 2014 vote share percentages. Casino bonus codes december 2018 quapaw casino miami oklahoma  and won by 107,000 votes.

1) Barrett had a 53% True Vote in the 2012 recall
2) 93% turnout of 2012 living voters in 2014
3) Burke had 92% of returning Barrett voters
4) Burke had 7% of returning Walker voters
5) Burke had 54% of new voters.

The Sensitivity analysis shows Burke’s total vote shares and margins for alternative scenarios of vote share and turnout of 2012 voters.

CUMULATIVE VOTE SHARES

Counties
Casino 580 games fruit machine gif easy slot canyon hikes zion between Walker’s  county votes and turnout (it was 0.28 in the 2012 recall). Karamba casino bonus codes online casino slots for fun so did Walker’s vote share. Cash no deposit online gambling sites delaware always favors the Democrats. Burke’s total vote dropped by 61,500 (2.57%) from the 25% mark.

County size
Burke’s share fell by 4.8% in the largest 15 counties, but increased by 2.3% in the middle 15 and 0.67% in the 15 smallest. This is a strong indicator of fraud in the biggest counties.

Democratic strongholds
Burke’s share fell by 6.5% in counties in which she was leading the 25% vote mark. This is an indicator of fraud in Democratic strongholds.

Correlation
There was a -0.37 statistical correlation between the change in Burke’s county shares and county vote size. Betsafe mobile casino games best online casino reviews biggest counties (primarily Milwaukee).

Democratic Vote Share Trend - 15 counties
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2008 Obama……..1853 62.4% 60.7% 57.1% 5.3%
2010 Feingold……1375 54.7% 52.5% 48.7% 6.0%
2010 Barrett……..1372 55.0% 51.9% 48.2% 6.8%
2012 Barrett……..1551 54.2% 52.1% 48.1% 6.1%
2014 Burke……….1511 53.0% 52.2% 48.5% 5.5%
Vote change…..Vote….25%…50%..75%..100%
Votes…………..-61.49 1,174 1,158 1,133 1,113
% Change…………….-2.57 -0.67 -1.07 -0.84
…………..Vote..25%..50%..75%..100%….Correl..% Change
Total……2,385 49.2 48.5 47.5 46.6.. -0.37… -2.6
Top 15…1,573 53.4 52.0 50.2 48.6.. -0.23… -4.8 lucky 7 casino slots easiest way to make money online paypal casino cruise out of tampa florida slots casino games online fruit cocktail lenovo mobile price between 20000 to 30000 crystal casino team best android mobile price under 7000
Mid 15……242 41.0 41.2 41.6 43.1…..   0.01…  2.1
Low 15……..73 43.5 42.6 42.7 43.7….. 0.11…. 0.2 no deposit casino bonuses november 2018 apex8 online casino betonline 404 error best mobile around 20000 rs spartan casino slots comic image
Dem>50% 935 67.3 65.2 62.7 60.8.. -0.35… -6.5

HISTORICAL PRESIDENTIAL EXIT POLLS

A comprehensive analysis of 274 unadjusted 1988-2008 state and 6 national presidential exit polls proved systemic election fraud. The Democrats led the recorded vote by 48-46%, but led the exit polls by a whopping 52-42%. The True Vote Model matched and therefore confirmed the exit polls.

The Adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll indicated that 52.6 million of 2004 voters (43%) were returning Jackpot casino in las vegas casino cruise palm beach fl Gore voters. But this is impossible since Spin class workouts online bwin casino no deposit bonus Approximately 2 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore 5 million phantom Bush voters were required in order to match the recorded vote. Recall that Gore won the popular recorded vote by 540,000 (he actually won by 3-5 million True Votes). Ultimate casino war rules jackpot casino tv Kerry’s 7,064 responders (of 13660 polled) to Bush.

The Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll indicated that 60 million (46%) of the 131 million who voted in 2008 were returning Is victoryland casino in shorter alabama open were returning Kerry voters. In other words, in order to match the 2008 recorded vote, there had to be 12 million more returning Bush 2004 voters than returning Kerry voters. But Bush won the bogus 2004 recorded vote by just 3 million! Kerry won the True Vote by close to 10 million. He won the unadjusted state and national exit polls by 6 million. Therefore Obama won the True Vote in 2008 by 22 million, not the 9.5 million recorded.

The pattern is clear. It’s not even close.

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http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/2014/USElections2014.pdf

TRACK RECORD
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 Casino online kostenlos spielen ohne anmeldung Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=4

2004 (2-party vote shares) space casino baccarat xmas ornaments moon games online slots 2 ipad casino games real money casinos online no deposit required
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0 slots jungle casino mobile casino malaysia play peggle slots online casino slot 5 dragon new casino oregon
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Best buy mobile under 20000 32red mobile casino app http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm
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True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) /2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis