Jan. 28, 2016
Election Models indicate that the 2014 North Carolina senate election was likely stolen.
Willis (R) defeated Hagan (D) by 45,000 votes (48.8-47.3%).
I. True Vote Model
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Hagan wins by 17,000 votes (48.5-47.9%)
Assume Obama won the True Vote by 185,000 votes (51.4-47.4%),
Hagan wins by 155,000 votes (50.9-45.5%)
Base Case Assumptions
Assume Obama won in 2012 by 51.4-47.4%.
1) 60% turnout of Obama and Romney voters,
2) Hagan had 92% of returning Obama voters
3) Willis had 90% of Romney voters dakota magic casino slots online gambling sites in usa casino roulette pictures online live casino blackjack
4) Hagan had 47% and Willis 45% of voters who did not vote in 2012. blackjack switch play online fruit machine slots online betting sites za netent casinos deposit bonus golf gambling games hammer one arm bandit slot machine hire
Hagan wins by 155,000 votes: 50.9-45.9%
Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares
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Hagan loses by 4,000 votes with 48.1%.
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Hagan wins by 314,000 votes with 53.6%.
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Hagan wins by 81,000 votes with 49.6%.
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Hagan wins by 230,000 votes with 52.1%.
II. Voter Turnout Model
Party registration: Democrats 41.7%- Republicans 30.4%- Independents 27.8% is online blackjack rigged online casino bonuses uk pokemon fire red money gameshark cheat casino bonus turnover slots wow macro video casino games online
Exit Poll Party-ID: Democrats 36.0%- Republicans 35.0%- Independents 29.0%
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Party Registration split
61% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans turned out.
Hagan wins by 50.9-45.4% (161,000 votes).
III. Uncounted Vote Model
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Hagan wins by 206,000 votes (51.6-45.1%)
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