Jan. 28, 2016
Election Models indicate that the 2014 North Carolina senate election was likely stolen.
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I. True Vote Model
Given: Obama lost NC in 2012 by 92,000 recorded votes (50.4-48.4%). us cellular service in mexico 63141 casinos canadian online casino games
Hagan wins by 17,000 votes (48.5-47.9%)
Assume Obama won the True Vote by 185,000 votes (51.4-47.4%),
Hagan wins by 155,000 votes (50.9-45.5%)
Base Case Assumptions
Assume Obama won in 2012 by 51.4-47.4%.
1) 60% turnout of Obama and Romney voters,
2) Hagan had 92% of returning Obama voters mobile casino games list ruleta de casino gratis online pokemon fire red game coins cheat
3) Willis had 90% of Romney voters
4) Hagan had 47% and Willis 45% of voters who did not vote in 2012.
Hagan wins by 155,000 votes: 50.9-45.9%
Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares
Worst case scenario: Hagan has 88% of returning Obama and 5% of Romney voters.
Hagan loses by 4,000 votes with 48.1%.
Best case scenario: Hagan has 96% of Obama and 9% of Romney voters.
Hagan wins by 314,000 votes with 53.6%.
Sensitivity analysis II: 2012 voter turnout in 2014
Worst case scenario: 58% of Obama and 62% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Hagan wins by 81,000 votes with 49.6%.
River nile casino bonus codes pokemon emerald how to win slots Romney voters return in 2014.
Hagan wins by 230,000 votes with 52.1%.
II. Voter Turnout Model
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Party Registration split
61% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans turned out. how to make money from home 2018 dress code casino perth wa slots of vegas bonus codes november 2018 rainbow riches slot machine casino online aams bonus senza deposito online slots in florida casino table games in alabama
Hagan wins by 50.9-45.4% (161,000 votes).
III. Uncounted Vote Model
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Hagan wins by 206,000 votes (51.6-45.1%)
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