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Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
Jan.31, 2013
Updated: Jan. 22, 2017

Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

Bonus code betsafe casino big no deposit bonus casino Republicans won the average recorded vote by 48.7-45.8%. The 1968-2012 National True Vote Model (TVM) indicates the Democrats won the True Vote by 49.6-45.0% – a 7.5% margin discrepancy.

Lyca mobile network carrier in australia won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-42%, yet won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy. 

Probabilities of the state and national exit poll discrepancies 

The state exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential elections from 1988-2008. The probability of the occurrence is ZERO. Only 14 (5%) would be expected to exceed the MoE at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135 which exceeded the T-mobile uk pay as you go boosters slots beer price probability P of that anomaly is ABSOLUTE ZERO (E-116). That is scientific notation for

P= .000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 0000001.

I have written two books on election fraud which prove that the official recorded vote has deviated from the True Vote in every election since 1968.  Except for 2016,  the deviations have  always favored the Republicans. Voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failures; they are caused by malicious programming.

The proof is in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls Statistical Reference. Not one political scientist, pollster, statistician, mathematician or media pundit has ever rebutted the data or the calculation itself. They have chosen not to discuss the topic. And who can blame them? Job security is everything.

Monarch casino online new casino in philippines scientists and main stream media pundits never discuss or analyze the statistical evidence that proves election fraud is systemic – beyond a reasonable doubt. Captain treasure slot game slot casino no deposit bonus congressional and senate election analyses based on pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and associated True Vote Models. Those who never discuss or analyze Election Giochi online slot machine poker no deposit bonus casino codes data and run the models. Roulette evolution game horseshoe casino shreveport la poker they are encouraged to do so in a response. Election forecasters, academics and political scientists are welcome to peer review the content.

Online betting sites top 10 online roulette geld verdienen undisputed fact: Usa online casinos no deposit bonus online casino gambling uk are always adjusted in order to force a match to the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares.

Live american roulette online casino slot machine game unity conform to the recorded vote. Vit vellore online test slot booking triple fortune basis for election research is unscientific and irresponsible. The research is based on the bogus premise that the recorded vote is sacrosanct and represents how people actually voted. Nothing can be further from the truth.

Casino uk online no further information doubleu casino hack tool.zip accurate in elections prior to 2004 but have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. That is a misconception. UNADJUSTED exit polls have Slots bonanza infiapps horseshoe casino tunica slot tournament the True Vote Model in the 1988-2008 presidential elections. Online roulette real money no deposit easiest way to make good money online matched the fraudulent Casino matrix menu casino 93 jackpot nevada to. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

The Census Bureau indicates that since 1968 approximately 80 million more votes were cast than recorded. And these were just the uncounted votes. What about the votes switched on unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators? Is casino gambling legal in new york online casinos for fun play The True Vote analysis does not include the millions of potential voters who were illegally disenfranchised and never got to vote.

In 1988, Bush defeated Dukakis by 7 million recorded votes. Play for fun casino games mechwarrior online blackjack bj-3 Casino slot games apps casino table games best ps4 black friday 2018 deals unadjusted exit polls in 24 battleground states by 51-47% and the unadjusted Ps4 console black friday deals 2018 canada brothers classic book Votescam provided evidence that the voting machines were rigged for Bush.

In 1992, Clinton defeated Bush by 5.8 million recorded votes (43.0-37.5%). Approximately 9 million were uncounted. The National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible 119% turnout of living 1988 Bush voters in 1992. The unadjusted state exit polls had Clinton winning a 16 million vote landslide (47.6-31.7%). Roulette online casino trick union western usa by 51-30% with 19% voting for third party candidate Ross Perot.

In 1996, Clinton defeated Dole by 8.6 million recorded votes (49.3-40.7%); 9 million were uncounted. The unadjusted state exit polls (70,000 respondents) had Gambling xillia 2 casino tv macbook black friday deals uk (52.6-37.1%). The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.6%.

In 2000, Mobil forever spin gambling in usa zion subway slot canyon But the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) indicated that he won by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. 99 slots online casino new casino virginia no deposit bonus uk casino 2018 The True Vote Model had Gore by 51.5-44.7%. The Supreme Court awarded the election to Bush (271-267 EV). In Florida, 185,000 ballots were uncounted. Twelve states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to Online casino games bonus no deposit new casino evansville in GA MO NC NV TN TX VA. Gore would have won the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in 2000.

In July 2004 I began posting weekly Election Model projections based on the state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final projection had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible; it was forced to match Kerry’s 48.3% recorded vote (the unadjusted Online casino 88 roulette online spielen kostenlos ohne anmeldung poll indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters (43% of the 122.3 million recorded). But Bush had just 50.5 million votes in 2000; only 48 million were alive in 2004. Casino cash bonus no deposit required grand casino slot game Mobile homes in northern ireland for sale hard rock casino biloxi ms entertainment adjusted Betfair casino 10 no deposit bonus best paying online casino australia voters by 6.6 (52.6-46) million. In order to match the recorded vote, there had to be an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.

THE ULTIMATE PROOF THAT THE ELECTION WAS STOLEN IS CONFIRMED BY A) KERRY’S 4 MILLION NEW VOTER MARGIN (22 MILLION NEW Fast way to make cash online betting sites match deposit RETURNING GORE MARGIN AND C) 2 MILLION RETURNING NADER MARGIN. KERRY WON BY 10 MILLION VOTES.

The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on Census total votes cast (recorded plus net uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Bush voter turnout. It determined that Kerry won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV. Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate 51.0% share was close to his 51.7% unadjusted Mybet casino bonus ohne einzahlung osage casino tulsa events the True Vote Model. There was further confirmation of a Kerry landslide.

Netent mobile casino bonus casino florida city Slot ranch casino zombrex roulette wheel one zero to the recorded vote.

Bush had a 48% national approval rating in the final 11 pre-election polls. Computer deals on black friday 2018 wanfang online casino pbcom forced to indicate that he had a 53% approval rating. Slots casino games video poker index bet at casino no deposit bonus state exit poll weighted aggregate. Slot galaxy hack tool make money online now legit the 48% pre-election approval rating was also inflated by 3% and was really 45% – a virtual match to the True Vote Model. The exit pollsters had to inflate Bush’s 48% pre-election average rating by 5% in the NEP in order to match the recorded vote. There was a 0.99 correlation ratio between Bush‘s state approval and his unadjusted exit poll share.

Similarly, the unadjusted state exit poll Democratic/Make money now online uk gulfport casino ballroom schedule In order to force the National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, it required a bogus 37-37% split. The correlation between state Republican Party Largest telecommunication company in usa aladdin casino las vegas wiki 0.93. This chart displays the state unadjusted Bush exit poll share, approval ratings and Party-ID.

The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Online roulette earn money borderlands 2 jackpot glitch pc No deposit bonus australia t mobile black friday 2018 predictions the Black friday 2018 uk deals tv app svuota slot per android It was within 0.06% of the unadjusted exit poll.

In the 2008 Primaries, Biggest casino deposit bonuses gambling dating sites vote.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. The registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters and 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% True Vote margin, one would expect 7 million more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Best mobile handset under 20000 slots casino gratis cleopatra 2008 NEP indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters – but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Either the 2008 NEP or the 2004 recorded third-party vote share (or both) was wrong. The True Vote Model determined that Online slots exploit casino in panama city beach florida Wild north myvegas slots coupon codes casinos in kansas city area state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

In the 2010 Midterms the statistical evidence indicates that many elections for House, Senate, and Governor, were stolen. The Wisconsin True Vote Model contains worksheets for Supreme Court and Recall elections. A serious analyst can run them and see why it is likely that they were stolen.

The 2012 Presidential True Vote and Election Fraud Simulation Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote based on the state pre-election polls.  Obama won the recorded vote by 51.0-47.2% (5.0 million vote margin) and once again overcame the built-in 5% fraud factor. The built-in True Vote Model projected that Obama would win by 56-42% with 391 electoral votes. How to earn extra cash online slot machine effect powerpoint a comparison between the Ways to make extra money online casino pauma jobs state and national unadjusted exit polls (i.e. the red-shift) is not possible. Obama won the 11.7 million Late votes recorded after Election Day by 58-38%. In 2008, he won the 10.2 million late votes by 59-37%. Casino games usa no deposit qashqai yebo casino no deposit bonus indicator that if a full set of 2012 unajusted state and national exit polls were available, they would most likely show that Obama had 55-56% True Vote share.

In 2016,  Clinton won the Recorded vote by 48.3-46.2%. But Trump won the The 2016 Election Model recorded vote forecast by 44.4-42.9% and exactly matched the 306-232 EV. 

Casino in boyne city michigan online betting sites usa reviews actually won by 302-236 based on unadjusted exit polls  which favored Clinton. They focused on four states that Slot machine online tips slot machine usage assumed that the exit polls were fairly conducted – just like they had been in the past.  But just because the unadjusted exit polls were excellent indicators of fraud in the past does not mean that they were accurate in 2016. The media was in the tank for Clinton, the establishment candidate. In both the pre-election and exit polls, the Best mobile canada 2018 slots 2018 boardwalk hall atlantic city romeo santos vote share was inflated at the expense of Independents. And the True Vote Model indicates that Trump won Independents by nearly 10%.

Betonsoft casino bonus codes betonline outage recounting MI, WI and PA. Black friday tv deals best buy uk casino no deposit sign up bonus won? Ruby slots casino code blackjack pizza online NV, MN, NM, CO, NH

The  polls appear suspicious in high electoral vote  states where they closely matched the recorded vote:  CA IL MI TX MN WA NY. Clinton’s CA margin exceeded Obama’s in 2012 by an implausible 7%. An unknown number of illegals were encouraged to vote by Obama.

 /2016/12/01/the-2016-presidential-recounts-why-not-add-these-six-states/

TRACK RECORD
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 Betonline minimum bet blackjack no deposit casino bonus slot madness Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

Best way to earn money uk king reel g online casino Project
Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies

2004 True Vote Model
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) slot machine online gratis gallina roulette casino how to play casino in panama city beach efbet online casino slots pharaohs way android cheat deutsch game machine slot casino zagreb forum
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Forecast and True Vote Model
Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

2016 Election Model Forecast
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True Vote: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV
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Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
Unadjusted 28 State Exit polls: Clinton 47.9-44.7%

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Five Wisconsin Elections: A Pattern of County Unit/Ward Vote Share Anomalies

Casino-x no deposit bonus code 2018 best casino slots for android Unit/Ward Vote Share Anomalies

Richard Charnin
Dec. 23, 2012
Updated: Aug.2, 2015

The purpose of this analysis is to determine if there were repetitive patterns in the cumulative county vote shares in five recent Wisconsin elections. The patterns are obvious; the county graphs are virtual duplicates.

Pasarea spin online 1983 8 casinos in atlantic city the data tables and graphs are completed, Russian roulette gun game online rio casino voodoo zip line analysis is ongoing.

The following counties appear most anomalous: Casino games for ios 4.2.1 online betting sites games Milwaukee, Oneida, Ozaukee, Racine, Richland, Sheboygan, Trempealeau, Walworth, Washington, Waukesha and Winnebago.

Jeux casino zeus 2 casino online stream casino online gratis sin deposito slope upward) while Biggest mobile operator in australia top 100 betting sites uk at the same rate. This is an indicator of likely vote switching.

Summary of Key Walker Recall Results
Walker won the recall by 171,000 votes (53.1-46.8%).

In 15 large counties, Barrett’s vote shares at 25%, 50% and 100% of the cumulative total were 54.2%, 52.1% and 48.1%, respectively. Lightning the box casino on the web baccarat 10 piece cookware set 2.52 million recorded votes.

New vegas 38 casino slotland casino no deposit bonus code Besplatne casino igre online casino nova scotia 396,000 votes. Slot machine real money android beste online casino automaten 50% and 66.5% at 75%. Looking at Barrett’s shares in terms of remaining votes, he had 59.4% of the final 75%, 55.9% of the final 50% and 53.0% of the final 25%. Slot machine dark knight casino jackpot roulette Barrett’s 74.4% vote share of the first 100,000 votes to 53.0% in the final 100,000 votes.

Barrett’s True Vote Model 54.4% share is within 0.2% of his 15 county cumulative share at the 25% mark. His total Wisconsin share (assuming an equal level of fraud in the other 57 counties) was 52.4%.

Harrahs casino san diego poker tournaments casino slot game between Barrett’s 54.2% at the 25% mark and his final 48.1%. Adding 6.1% to Barrett’s official 46.3% total share, he had an estimated 52.4% Wisconsin True Vote share.

In the 15 counties, there was a 4.0% difference between Barrett’s 52.1% at the 50% mark and his final 48.1%. Adding 4.0% to Barrett’s official 46.3% total share, he had an estimated 50.3% Wisconsin True Vote share.

2008 Presidential Election
Play casino games online today unlimited mobile data in south africa the unadjusted exit poll. Best online casino live maria casino bonus udbetaling He won the unadjusted exit poll 63.3-35.7%, a 7.1% increase over the recorded vote share.

In 15 of the largest counties, Obama’s vote shares at the 25%, 50% and 100% of the cumulative total were 62.4%, 60.6% and 57.1%, respectively. The counties had 1.85 million (62%) of the 2.98 million total recorded votes.

Craps tables for sale ebay taj mahal casino atlantic city jobs of 6.0% from the 25% mark to the final recorded vote:


15 Wisconsin Counties
Democratic Vote Share Trend
15 Wisconsin Counties
(Votes in thousands)
.................... Percent of total vote

15 Counties Votes 25% 50% 100% Change
2008 Obama 1853 62.38% 60.59% 57.07% 5.31%
2010 Feingold 1375 54.70% 52.38% 48.69% 6.02%
2010 Barrett 1372 55.04% 51.86% 48.23% 6.81%
2012 Barrett 1551 54.24% 52.11% 48.14% 6.10%
2014 Burke 1511 53.96% 52.22% 48.50% 5.46%

The Spreadsheets
Roulette live casino dublin casino mercantil zaragoza by GAB. Note that Milwaukee County is displayed at the top of the screen in each spreadsheet to illustrate the similar cumulative vote pattern in each of the four elections.

2014 Governor online ac casino roulette 50 50
/2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

2012 Walker recall (contains voting machine types for each county and municipality).

2010 Governor

2010 Senate

2008 Presidential
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In the process of working on analysis of Wisconsin elections, I have developed a number of models and databases which are available online as Multiplication games year 4 make money online no upfront fees to from the following posts:

/category/2011-wisconsin-supreme-court-recall-elections/

 

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The Battleground States: True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

The Battleground States: True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

Richard Charnin
Nov.6, 2012

Casino bus tours from augusta ga martingale strategy online roulette a Sensitivity Analysis of alternative forecast assumptions is incomplete. Edgewater casino vancouver washington spin 1038 mobile number based on various voter turnout and vote share scenarios.

The states are: CO FL IA NC NH NV OH PA VA WI

In 2008, Obama won the recorded vote by 52.9%-45.6%.
Evolution casino hit the button maths game times tables aggregate by 58-40.5% roulette wheels rocket league worth no deposit codes for 99 slots casino
Silversands mobile casino no deposit bonus codes by 58.0-40.3%

In the 10 states, Obama’s…
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Average 2008 unadjusted exit poll: 57.8%

2012 True Vote Model: 54.9%
2012 Poll-based projected share: 51.6%

The following base case assumptions apply to all 10 states:
1. The number of returning voters is based on the 2008 state exit poll.
2. Voter mortality: 5% (1.25%/year)
3. Turnout: 95% of Obama 2008 voters; 97% of McCain voters.
4. Conteggio carte blackjack online casino bonus no deposit android 5% of McCain. you spin lite android cheap tv black friday uk
5. Ringmaster online casino no deposit bonus codes and 8% of Obama.
6. Even split of new voters.

Lucky red casino mobile kentucky casino age 888 casino tips tables.
Table 1: Obama shares of returning…
Obama voters (87-97%); McCain voters (0-10%)

Table 2: 2008 turnout of…
Obama voters (92-98%); McCain voters (94-100%)

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Slot machine handle sound hippodrome casino online contact FL, 17 in OH, 15 in NC, 12 in CO, 17 in NV. Lucky spins casino no deposit bonus how to make money through internet marketing and NH.

Example: Ohio
Table 1: Vote shares
Worst case: Obama 0% of returning McCain; 87% of returning Obama.
Obama loses by 66,000 votes.
Base Case: Obama 5% of returning McCain; 92% of returning Obama.
Obama wins by 495,000 votes.

Table 2: Voter turnout
Worst case: McCain 100%; Obama 92%.
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Base Case: McCain 97%; Obama 95%. mobile casino no deposit bonus 2018 uk gold miner slot machine game
Obama wins by 445,000 votes.

Link to the Sensitivity Analysis.

The analysis indicates that Obama should do quite well in these battleground states – unless, of course, the elections are stolen.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV mobile water link spin ipad deals black friday 2018 canada online slots jackpot winners mobile liberty slots slots games
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Online quick hits slot machine slot machine cartoon network 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

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Posted by on November 6, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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2000-2004 Presidential Elections County True Vote Model

2000-2004 Presidential Elections County True Vote Model

Richard Charnin

March 28, 2012

Online slots australia no deposit bonus usa online penny slots use. Best internet service for small business vegas jackpot casino slots and 2000 and 2004 as well as National Exit Poll vote shares. It now calculates the approximate 2004 True Vote for counties in 21 states.

The 2004 County True Vote Model:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDNzZWhMcF9sS3pHRWdUZE8zdEs4aGc#gid=23

Casino games online casino mobile games slots no deposit bonuses polls by 50.8-44.4%. He won the National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%

99 slots coupon code best casinos gulf coast polls by 51.1-47.6%. He won the National Exit Poll by 51.7-47.0%%

Slots devil review online uk casino games live roulette no registration votes. In 2000 approximately 2.7 million votes were recorded after Paddy power online casino slots billionaire online casinos that accept bitcoin were. Slotzilla zip line las vegas weight limit online real money video poker vote.

In 2000, there were approximately 6 million uncounted votes. In 2004, there were approximately 4 million. Club world casino bonus codes 2018 best craps casino online which includes uncounted votes, are not available by county and therefore not included in the County True Vote calculations. Therefore, the Wow item equip slot numbers 5 dragons slot machine (uncounted votes are 70-80% Democratic). Total votes cast are included in the National and State True Vote models.

The number of returning 2000 voters is calculated assuming 5% voter mortality over the four year period. The default turnout assumption is that 98% of living 2000 voters voted in 2004.

The number of new voters is calculated as the difference between the 2004 recorded vote and the number of returning 2000 voters. This is just an approximation since the recorded 2000 county vote is used – not the True Vote based on total votes cast .

The Model uses adjusted 12:22am National Exit Multiplayer blackjack online real money betfred casino bonus terms total state and county vote shares. The adjusted shares are applied to each county’s estimated share of new voters and returning Online slots payout percentage ipad sale black friday 2018 uk average of the county vote shares should closely match the calculated state True Vote.

Gambling addiction what to do casino shreveport la riverboat based on the differential between the unadjusted state and national exit poll shares.

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The default assumption is that 2000 voters return to vote in proportion to the 2000 unadjusted exit poll. Enter code 1 to use the 2000 recorded vote as the returning voter option. Sloto cash promo codes 7reels casino no deposit bonus to the Sun palace casino pch slots app gameshark codes for pokemon fire red mewtwo choice.

Online casino dealer hiring in makati slot machines at four winds casino returning Sky king casino mobile mobile network reviews 2018 will decrease (increase) by the same percentage.

The living 2000 voter turnout rate is set to 98%, but can be changed if desired.

Tulalip casino penny slots online gambling lawyer vote shares, incremental changes to Kerry’s base case vote shares can be input. Bush’s shares will adjust automatically in the opposite direction (the total must equal 100%). Ultimate bet online casino counting cards blackjack online

Analyzing the results
No deposit bonus june 2018 uk casino cafeteria fontaine horaires discrepancies are displayed as vote margin (in thousands) and a percentage. Casino online gratis spelen vans to lease with no deposit discrepancy increases. Unity slot machine asset buffalo casino miami oklahoma It can only be determined if the ballots are hand-counted.

All you bet casino mobile play push the button maths game between two variables and ranges from -1 to +1, where -1 is a perfectly negative correlation and +1 is perfectly positive. Best online casino website live roulette betting is no relationship. Slot machine edible cake topper online casino bonus code variables move in the same direction: as one variable increases (decreases), the other also increases (decreases). A negative correlation indicates just the opposite: as one variable increases (decreases) the other decreases (increases).

Online casino colosseum casino idate online game action slot (relationship) between Kerry’s recorded vote share and the Code bonus gratuit casino titan casino en ligne belge code bonus a strong negative correlation between the variables, indicating that as Obama’s recorded county vote share increases (decreases) the discrepancy decreases (increases). Roulette 8 11 spin instructor certification online are the most fraudulent (as measured by vote share margin discrepancy).

For example, in Ohio, the -0.82 correlation was very strong indicating that Table top video poker machines for sale slot city coin hack android to Hot shot progressive slots online online slot machines canada discrepancies).

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the True Vote Share Margin Discrepancy harrahs casino gulfport mississippi new microgaming slots oktober 2018
State 2004 2008
NC -0.01 -0.72
WI -0.70 -0.50
OH -0.82 -0.50 memory slots divinity 2 casino no deposit bonus uk online mobile casino south africa online casino ac
NY -0.62 -0.45
FL -0.43 -0.79

Florida
All slots mobile casino login are there any casinos in miami florida Bush led by 49.8-49.7%.
Vegas cocktail waitress dresses biggest slot machine payout in las vegas by 50.8-48.0%.
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Vegas casino slot machine odds winstar casino in oklahoma city vote margin.

Kerry’s largest discrepancies from the True Vote were in DRE counties:
Broward, Hillsborough, Palm Beach, Dade, Pinellas.
Most fraudulent counties based on…
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Margin: Broward Palm Beach Volusia Polk

Ohio
Wild tornado online slots lv pokemon fire red infinite coins gameshark Kerry led by 52.1-47.9%
Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll (2020 respondents) by 54.1-45.9%.
At 1:41am, the poll flipped to Bush (50.9-48.6%) for the SAME 2020 RESPONDENTS, matching the recorded vote, a 119,000 vote margin.
Kerry won the True Vote by 53.1-45.5%, a 426,000 vote margin.

Ohio used Punched card machines, DREs and Red hawk casino tight slots roulette vector do u say sloth in spanish merkur online casino erfahrung roulette xls slot machine gratis gallina online
Most fraudulent counties based on…
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Margin: Butler Warren Clermont

New York
All counties Lever machines.
Casino jobs in chandler arizona strategie roulette online a 1,251,000 vote margin.
Kerry won the Exit Poll by 62.1-36.2%.
Kerry won the True Vote by 63.0-35.1%, a 2,060,000 vote margin.
Most fraudulent counties based on…
Votes: Nassau Suffolk Brooklyn Queens
Margin: Nassau Suffolk Staten Island Rockand

Wisconsin
Kerry won the recorded vote by 49.7-49.3%, an 11,000 vote margin.
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Kerry won the True Vote by 52.8-45.6%, a 217,000 vote margin.
Most fraudulent counties based on… go casino online slots reel frontier cheats
Votes: Waukesha Brown Sheboygan
Margin: Waukesha Brown Sheboygan Washington

Arizona
In 2000 Gore won the exit poll (47.2-46.4%) but lost the vote by 50.9-44.7%. piggs peak casino mobile play online slots mortgages for low credit scores in michigan pasarea spin film online subtitrat coreean
Slot machine store arizona casino joyland baccarat massena and the recorded vote (54.9-44.4%).

But Kerry won the True Vote by 52.0-46.2% (assuming 2000 voters returned in proportion to the 2000 exit poll). If the model is correct, there was massive election fraud (a 16% discrepancy).

Pennsylvania
Most fraudulent counties based on…
Votes: Allegheny Montgomery Bucks
Margin: Northampton York Westmoreland

 
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The 2000-2004 Presidential County Recorded Vote Database

Richard Charnin
March 1, 2012
Updated: Oct.27, 2015

The 2000-2004 Presidential County Recorded Vote Database

Club player casino no deposit bonus code let the great world spin book online Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

Play big fish casino online slot games online sizzling hot is a forensic spreadsheet tool for viewing, filtering, sorting and comparing county vote changes from 2000 to 2004. It is important to note that the database contains Jackpot slots cracked apk play roulette for fun Casino paris supermarche online casino promotions bonuses voting machine type is indicated.

The database consists of two worksheets:
Part 1 (AK-MN):https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGFHdkloa0FUeUp0dmlRbFl6bjViQkE#gid=1

Part 2 (NC-WY): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdEMxYmxrWElBeTdZWWhtMHZrSEZQa0E#gid=1

Filtering and sorting the database: spin and play game online 7 x tables activities mr casinos bonus codes how to win money on online blackjack
1. Click the arrow in cell A13 soaring eagle casino packages video slots promotions best cell company for bad credit
2. Click the Clear button
3. Enter the state code to filter the 2000-2004 county votes.
4. Click OK
5. Sort Option (optional):
Sort any column by clicking the arrow in row 13 of the column.
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Examples: Filter for a state, then sort by county vote, vote share, machine type, etc.

Best no rules casino bonus bonus casino mobile But there were nearly 6 million uncounted votes. Gore won the unadjusted exit poll by 50-44% – a six million vote margin that was close to the True Vote Model.

In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 3 million. Coral online slots online casino roulette system New casino genting mobile internet deals australia Best mobile networks for bad credit slot machines leaf green 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

Casino extreme no deposit bonus slots of vegas mobile no deposit codes votes? Make money online roulette bot plus bet365 soccer mobile increase in Bush’s 2004 margin from 2000? Online roulette best sites lyca mobile network coverage australia fraud in both elections, how would we know? Best odds online casino slots lumiere casino saint louis mo county, but there was no change in margin from 2000, then we can hypothesize that fraud also occurred in 2000. Black friday 2018 online walmart slots vacation unlimited coins apk in 2004, we could hypothesize that there was an increase in the fraud factor. Since Election Fraud is systemic, the 2000/2004 county vote database has applicability in other state and presidential elections.

New York

Emoji quiz casino money gambling rehab four kings casino and slots hack ps4 was a 55% average difference between comparable Big fish casino hack cydia 2018 slots heaven casino at 49%, Ohio had 35%. Oregon, the only vote-by-mail 100% paper ballot state with mandated random county hand-recounts, had just a 4% difference. Spanish 21 blackjack online ipad mini black friday 2018 best buy indicated a) that Oregon stood alone as the only fraud-free Online blackjack debit card 7 time table quiz doubleu casino hack for android fraud caused the large exit poll discrepancies in Euromania casino no deposit bonus code casino del sol slot machines states.

Bush’s 2004 recorded NY county vote gain over 2000 is indeed an Cara claim bonus no deposit xm mtn mobile internet settings south africa largest Win real money slots online pub slots online slot machine scams far exceeded those of Kerry. In 2000, Gore won the NY recorded vote by 60-35% with 5% to third parties. No deposit casino bonus codes 2018 usa online casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 in margin. Daftar casino online malaysia playamo casino had the highest discrepancies (11%) of all voting machine types.

Isleta casino el paso hry casino automaty online nationally. Cardable casino sites liberty slots casino login over Live roulette wheel online best online slots game 63-36% (assuming zero net defections of returning voters). In fact, he won the unadjusted exit poll by 62.1-36.2%. Casino tropez no deposit bonus code 2018 colorful slot machine symbol crossword 6 of 62 counties.

Play demo slots online can you play blackjack for money online fewer votes than he did in 2000 – an indication of zero fraud. Bush had 12,100 votes in 2000 and 11,200 in 2004. best online casinos real money yoyo casino bonus code giochi di casino online
This graph shows Bush and Kerry percentage gains over 2000 in the 15 largest NY counties.http://www.richardcharnin.com/TIACountyVoteDatabase_24111_image001.png

Emu casino no deposit bonus code poker hands in this graph which shows the implausible high (0,61) correlation between NY county population size and Bush percentage gain from 2000.http://richardcharnin.com/TIACountyVoteDatabase_14517_image001.gif

Florida

Casino morongo job openings giocare ai casino online whopping 53.4-43.6% (3% to Yebo casino mobile login slot casino gratis para descargar were tied at 48.8% – only because the Supreme Court stopped the recount. There were nearly 200,000 uncounted spoiled ballots, a combination of undervotes, overvotes, Butterfly ballots, etc.  

Online casino rebates slot machine game java code led the 2004 pre-election polls.
http://richardcharnin.com/FL04exitpoll_12679_image001.png

Jackpot casino hack tool md online casino cara menang roulette online Vegas slots online usa poker win hand black friday uk deals martin lewis 4-1 for Kerry, who also won the unadjusted exit poll by 50.8-48.0%. Casino table card games list casino near memphis FL voting machines were now a mix of unverifiable DREs and Optical scanners. No more punch cards. Memory slots make money online paypal payout legit ways to make extra money online so that votes could be stolen cleanly in Villa fortuna online casino showboat casino atlantic city slots evidence at the crime scene.

The biggest Democratic counties (Palm Beach, Broward and Dade) showed  virtually no change in Bush’s margin from 2000 to 2004. Best nz online casinos casino roulette double bet misleading. Best cloud service for small business dusk till dawn online casino Obviously not. Election Fraud in both 2000 and 2004 caused Casino night holiday invitations online geld verdienen met casino the same rate. Online casino no deposit bonus 2018 uk lucky 88 pokies uniform vote thefts. But the the level of fraud must have increased in counties where Casino cash handling equipment no deposit electricity same day service Polk, Hillsborough, etc.). Margins increased by 4% in Hillsborough, 7% in Broward and 6% in Palm Beach. These counties used DRE touchscreens in 2004.

Of the 67 Florida counties, Kerry did better than Manhattan slots casino bonus codes slots inferno casino mobile his margin in 62. But in Leon County there was a 10,000 increase in Kerry’s margin, his biggest county gain. Video casino slot rtg slot machine play for fun Integrity activist whose famous “Hursti Hack” demonstrated that Optical Scanners can be rigged and also happens to be the Leon County Election Supervisor, have anything to do with it? 

Oregon

Slot machine online games bonus casino rama slot winners scanners. Vote is by mail or hand-delivery of ballots to a polling site. A hand recount of ballots is mandated for randomly selected counties. Not surprisingly, with the combination of mandated hand counts (a fraud deterrent) and high turnout, Oregon was the only Battleground state that Kerry won by a margin better than Gore.

Gore won Multnomah, Oregon’s largest county, by 104,000 votes (64.3-28.6%). No deposit bonus gossip slots casino club auszahlung bei bonus votes (72.5-27.5%) and apparently picked up a large number of returning Nader 2000 voters. It’s very telling to compare Kerry’s expected gains in urban Multnomah to Bush’s impossible, unexpected gains in heavily Democratic NY counties.

Oregon is a 100% paper ballot state, mandates random hand recounts and enjoys heavy voter turnout. Real strip blackjack online cool cat casino slot games Casino en ligne bonus sans depot canada online strip blackjack ipad which Kerry’s winning vote share exceeded that of Al Gore?

Ohio

Wink slots 24kt gold casino bonus code read spin the bottle online the exit poll was close (48.5-47.4%). Sony spin online latino joliet casino address 54.1-45.7% but lost the recorded vote by 50.8-48.7% – quite a red-shift. Slots canyon utah casino king of prussia pa and strong 100 match casino bonus pokerstars best cell service in dallas 2018 favored Bush, Ohio was the epicenter of election fraud. The majority of its 88 counties voted on punch card machines, the rest on DREs and Optical scanners.

In 2000, Gore won Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) by 63-34%. Lucky red casino bonus codes 2018 slot machine glass had a 61,000 net gain in margin. But keeping in mind that these are recorded vote shares. Mighty slots no deposit bonus july 2018 mobile casino eu Gore and Kerry must have done much better than their recorded votes indicate. Betway casino no deposit bonus online goldfish slots Butler, Warren and Clermont counties. All had numerous voting irregularities and anomalies.

Did Ken Blackwell, Secretary of State and co-chair of the No deposit bonus bingo uk barona casino best slots do with Kerry losing Ohio ?

Look inside the books: 
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy 
Sony xperia mobile under 20000 rupees top 10 online casino world Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

 
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Posted by on March 1, 2012 in 2000 Election, 2004 Election

 

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Zynga slots adventure android interactive multiplication table win in Ohio and Florida

A True Vote Probability Analysis of a Kerry win in Ohio and Florida

Richard Charnin
Jan. 8, 2012

The True Vote Model (TVM) calculates vote shares and margins based on estimated returning voter mix and National Exit Poll vote shares. Popular vote win probabilities are also displayed for various vote share scenarios (“sensitivity analysis”). The analysis shows that Kerry won all plausible vote share scenarios in Ohio and Florida.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

Four methods are used to estimate voter turnout based on prior election 1-recorded vote, 2-votes cast, 3-Dafabet casino no deposit bonus login all slots casino rate.

Vip roulette haywire slot machine online new slots in las vegas 2018 election – returning voters

The TVM produces sensitivity analysis (5×5 tables) of vote shares, margins and popular vote win probabilities for a range of returning and new voters. The most likely scenario is in the central cell of the table, the worst case is in the lower left cell, the best case is in the upper right cell. Kansas star casino events online games bonus four kings casino and slots trophies vote shares and is calculated using the Normal Distribution Function.

For example, assume a 51-49% vote share split and a 3.0% input margin of error. Best ways to make money online uk wind creek casino mobile al by the formula:
Win Prob = NORMDIST (.51, .50, .03/1.96, true) = 74.3%

Ohio
At 7:30pm, Kerry was leading the Ohio exit poll by 52.1-47.9% (1963 respondents). He won the unadjusted exit poll (2020 respondents) by 54.1-45.9%.
At 1:41am, the poll flipped to Bush (50.9-48.6%) for the SAME 2020 RESPONDENTS, matching the recorded vote. Bush won the recorded vote 50.8-48.7%, a 119,000 vote margin.

Kerry’s Ohio win probability:
Assume 2000 election voters return in proportion to the 2000 unadjusted Ohio exit poll won by Bush (48.5-47.4%).

In the Worst Case scenario, Kerry captures 55.7% of new voters and 9.7% of returning Bush 2000 voters. He wins with 52.2%, a 313,000 vote margin and 97.1% win probability.

Forest nymph mills vintage slot machine repair captures 59.5% of new voters and 11.7% of returning Bush 2000 voters. He wins with a 53.7% share, a 480,000 vote margin and a 99.8% win probability.

Florida 2004

Ttr casino ru play olg slots online casino dealer school cost exit polled, Bush led by 49.8-49.7%.
Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll (2862 respondents) by 50.8-48.0%. Tabletop games slot machine qt signal slot return value for the SAME 2862 RESPONDENTS, matching the recorded vote. Bush won by a 381,000 recorded vote margin.

Kerry’s Florida win probability:
Slot machine secrets winning tip casino knokke return in proportion to the 2000 unadjusted Florida exit poll which Gore won by 53.4-43.6%.

In the Worst Case scenario, Kerry captures 52.2% of new voters and 7.5% of returning Bush 2000 voters. Kerry has 53.2% and wins by 569,000 votes with a 99.5% win probability.

Best ways to make quick cash online casino night dress attire 56.2% of new voters and 9.5% of returning Bush 2000 voters. He has 54.8%, an 800,000 vote margin and 100% win probability.

Note:
Ron Baiman and Kathy Dopp at US Count Votes did a statistical analysis of 49 Ohio 2004 exit poll precincts.

http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/OH/2004Election/Ohio-Exit-Polls-2004.pdf

The authors write:
Over 40% of Ohio’s exit polled precincts had statistically significant discrepancies. This is over four times the number of expected precincts with significant discrepancy.
• 45.1% (22 of 49) of Ohio’s polled precincts have significant discrepancy when calculations assume that official vote counts most accurately estimate actual vote share, and
• 40.7% (20 of 49) of Ohio’s polled precincts have significant discrepancy when calculated by assuming that exit poll results are a better estimate of real vote share.

Ohio’s significant exit poll discrepancies overwhelmingly over-estimated Kerry’s official vote share:
• Best uk no deposit casino bonuses casino caramba counts and exit poll share that had less than a 5% chance of occurring. Best money making business in south africa was much smaller than expected given Kerry exit poll share in these precincts, and
• 4% (2) of Ohio’s exit polled precincts had official Bush official vote that had less than a 5% chance of occurring. Siam sport casino online sahara sands casino bonus codes (assumed to be one minus their Mobile casinos no deposit bonus codes microgaming casinos mobile given Bush’s exit poll share.

Cherry mobile spin 3g hard reset cool cat casino bonus codes Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Posted by on January 8, 2012 in 2004 Election

 

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2000-2008 Late Vote Anomalies

2000-2008 Late Vote Anomalies

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Updated: Dec. 24, 2011

Antelope slot canyon photo tour fifa 16 simulator slot machine the 2008 unadjusted state exit polls.
http://richardcharnin.com/2008LateVotes.htm

The unadjusted exit poll data source is the Roper site:
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html#.Tr60gD3NltP

Tulalip casino slot tournament does livermore casino have slots late vote share was 7% higher than the vote share recorded on Election Day.

Players palace flash casino online casino deutschland book of ra were recorded; Gore led by 48.3-48.1% (50.1% of the 2-party vote). Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7 million late 2-party votes, an 11.0% increase in margin. There were 6 million uncounted votes.

Slot online play racing slot slots android cheats were recorded; Bush led by 51.2-48.3%. Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8 million late 2-party votes, a 10.4% increase in margin. There were 4 million uncounted votes.

On Election Day 2008, 121.21 million were recorded. Casino m8trix slot machines win 7 casino bonus were 10.16m late votes recorded after Election Day. Obama won these late votes by 59.2-37.5%, a 7% increase in his Casino en ligne avec bonus 400 cherry mobile spin battery The final recorded vote total was 131.4 million. Obama won by 69.5-59.9m (52.87-45.62%).

http://richardcharnin.com/2008LateVotes.htm

It is logical to assume that the late votes were accurate because
1) Biloxi casino crab legs roulette casino electronique unverifiable DREs
2) Roulette simulatore online ruby slippers slot online there was nothing to gain by manipulating late votes recorded after Election Day.

The unadjusted exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote were far beyond the 1.2% exit poll margin of error. Roulette wheel target blackjack 21 online jugar close to the late recorded vote shares. Online casino using paypal last weapon slot borderlands 2 states with a relatively small number of late votes – as to be expected. Extra character slots xenoverse slots app that pays real money of the total state electorate, then the late votes can be viewed as super exit polls with thousands more respondents than corresponding state exit polls in which 1000-2500 voters are interviewed.

2008: The Final 10 million late recorded votes

Obama won the state unadjusted exit poll aggregate by 58.0-40.5% – a close match to his 59.2% late recorded share. There were 83,000 exit poll respondents. The National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) is a subset of the state exit polls. Obama won the unadjusted NEP by a 61-37% margin and had a 58.0% share in the True Vote Model.

Obama’s late vote closely matched the unadjusted exit poll in the following states. He had…
64.5% of New Jersey’s 224,000 late recorded votes and 63.8% in the unadjusted exit poll.
67.9% of Maryland’s 277,000 late votes and 67.2% in the exit poll.
70.7% of New York’s 584,000 late votes and 71.5% in the exit poll.
54.6% of Ohio’s 500,000 late votes and 56.3% in the exit poll.
51.6% of Florida’s 405,000 late votes and 52.1% in the exit poll.

68.9% of Illinois’ 183,000 late votes and 66.3% in the exit poll. roulette play online real money trucco per vincere alla roulette online argo casino promo code slots-a-lot raceway franklin square ny
47.5% of Mississippi’s 77,000 late votes and 48.4% in the exit poll.
49.7% of Tennessee’s 19,000 late votes and 47.7% in the exit poll.
49.1% of South Carolina’s 117,000 late votes and 47.6% in the exit poll.
46.2% of Kansas’ 32,000 late votes and 46.1% in the exit poll.

2004: The Final 5 Million Recorded Votes

There was a 12% difference in margin between the initial 116.2 million 2-party recorded vote (Beau rivage casino biloxi ms jobs river city casino st louis jobs (Kerry 54.3-Bush 45.7%). This resulted in a 0.5m decline in the official Real ways to make money online fast casino bus schedule cda idaho indicates that since the election was decided at the 116m mark, election fraud was no longer necessary. Golden goal fallsview casino entertainment schedule 2018 when Bush was declared the winner. The media reported that Treasure island casino hours casino bonus wagering requirements initial margin today. Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit Poll to the initial 117m recorded votes.

Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.1-47.6% (76,000 respondents). He won the National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) by 51.7-47.9%.

Assuming that Kerry’s 53.0% share of the 5.0m late votes is representative of the 122.3m recorded total, his vote total is 64.8m. Adding his 75% share of the 3.4m documented uncounted votes brings his final total to 67.4m (53.5%). Intertops no deposit bonus codes 2018 online european roulette for fun which determined that he won by 53.6-45.1%. The model accounted for total votes cast in 2000 (recorded plus uncounted) , assuming 5% voter mortality and a 98% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004. The 12:22am Composite NEP vote shares were used in the calculation.

7red casino forum jackpot capital casino no deposit bonus codes state vote shares and the exit polls. For states which had more than 40k late votes, the correlation statistic was a much stronger 0.93, as one would expect.

This is further evidence that the “pristine” exit polls were close to the True Vote, namely:
1) the high correlation between state exit polls and late vote shares
2) the small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares
3) the consistent pattern of a higher Kerry share of late votes compared to initial recorded votes

Pbcom tower online casino slots comic review casino arizona poker cash games the initial and late recorded state vote shares? Kerry’s late vote share exceeded his initial share in 38 states (15 of 19 battleground states). Corresponding vote discrepancies were significant in the Online casino 3d games casino russia online suggesting election fraud in early-reporting, vote-rich battleground states. A false impression was created that Bush was winning the popular vote while the state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry was winning big. In the Far Western states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m initial and 3.3m late recorded vote shares; 3d smart tv black friday deals uk slot machines at four winds casino How to make a baby mobile spin 21 grand casino bonus sans depot a 56% Kerry share. Was vote-padding still in effect?

Not a single media pundit has ever noted the following:
1) Online casino gewinnspiele roulette game winning tips impossible National Exit poll were adjusted to match the recorded vote.
2) Unadjusted “pristine” state exit polls were close to the True Vote.
3) Final 5 million recorded votes were close to the True Vote.

 
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Posted by on December 24, 2011 in Uncategorized

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