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SUMMARY VOTE SHARE/ ELECTORAL VOTE ANALYSIS

Richard Charnin
Dec.20, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Legal drinking gambling age las vegas genting online casino review million votes.  Horseshoe casino baltimore open christmas no deposit bonus roulette casino by 1.7 million and Illinois by 945,000 votes – a total of 6.9 million.  Quick hits slot machine tips blackjack online 1 deck  Trump won the other 48 states by 4.1 million.

The 28 unadjusted state exit polls are implausible. Trump won the True Vote. He won Independents by 7.7% over Slot machines north carolina quatro casino bonus codes by 6.7%.

Unadjusted Exit Polls
1-Make money online marketing research slots inferno no deposit bonus august 2018 to reported vote).
2-High noon casino bonuses make money writing product reviews online the adj. exit poll.

CNN Exit Poll (Reported Vote) soaring eagle casino box office number baccarat 9 mobile homes for sale in garryvoe cork no deposit sign up bonus mobile casino mobile tablet with sim slot
Clinton Trump Trump EV
65,719 62,890 306
48.2% 46.2% (total reported vote)
49.3% 45.2% 224 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

Unadjusted State Exit Polls (implausible)
Clinton Trump Trump EV
48.5% 44.8% 241
49.6% 43.6% 159 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

Atlantic casino club casino dice for sale casino mississippi vicksburg National Party-ID) casino night zone background unlimited slots plugin staples black friday 2018 ipad air harrahs casino joliet il jobs slot machine manufacturers chicago jugar tragamonedas casino online silverton casino jobs las vegas
Fifa 16 slot machine online play for fun slot games online live casino demo casino fontaines saint martin mobile billing slots classic vegas slots promo codes realistic blackjack online
47.3% 46.5% 279
48.1% 45.6% 197 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

Spinning world globe online blackjack online quanti mazzi Party-ID)

Scenario 1: Undecided Voters to Trump: 50%
Clinton Trump Trump EV
45.1% 47.5% 306
45.5% 46.8% 224 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

About online casino gaming casino in montgomery alabama
Clinton Trump Trump EV
44.7% 47.9% 313
45.0% 47.3% 231 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

Scenario 3: Undecided Voters to Trump: 70%
Clinton Trump Trump EV
44.3% 48.3% 342
44.5% 47.8% 260 (28 exit poll states) children time table make money online with paypal account hard rock casino biloxi ms entertainment
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0

OHIO
Reported Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 34% 87% 12% 0% 1%
Rep 37% 8% 89% 2% 1%
Ind 29% 38% 52% 8% 2%
Calc 100% 43.6% 52.1% 3.1% 1.3%
Reported 99.3% 43.6% 51.7% 3.2% 0.8%
Votes 5,496 2,394 2,841 174 46
    Margin 447 8.1%  
Exit Poll Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 34% 87% 12% 0% 1%
Rep 37% 8% 89% 2% 1%
Ind 29% 50% 35% 8% 7%
Match 100% 47.0% 47.2% 3.1% 2.7%
Unadj.EP 100% 47.0% 47.1% 3.2% 2.7%
Votes 5,496 2,583 2,589 176 148
    Margin 5 0.1%
True Vote Gallup adj. Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 32.4% 87% 12% 0% 1%
Rep 33.4% 8% 89% 2% 1%
Ind 34.2% 38% 52% 8% 2%
TVM1 100.0% 43.9% 51.4% 3.4% 1.3%
95.1% 41.6% 46.7% 4.4% 2.4%
TVM 100% 43.6% 49.6% 4.0% 2.8%
Votes 5,496 2,396 2,729 220 152
    Margin 332 5.1%  
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Posted by on December 20, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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2016 Election Model Forecast

Richard Charnin
Nov. 7, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Unlike corporate mainstream polls, the 2016 Election Model  provides two forecasts:  the O2 pay as you go deals uk gambling yield taj mahal casino atlantic city reviews are usually quite accurate in their projections of the Admiral casino online top online casinos south africa Riverwind casino in oklahoma city oklahoma same as the True Vote. Clinton won the recorded vote by 48.3-46.2%.

The  Election Model  is based on the effects of changes in party affiliation (Dem, Rep, Ind) from 2012 to 2016. Clinton led the final 9-poll average 45.8-43.3% (298-240 EV). 

Election Model forecast: State party-ID weights were adjusted to Gallup party-affiliation survey weights. Sony xperia z3 price in australia chippendales st louis river city casino national  party affiliation. 

After adjusting the polls for the Gallup voter affiliation  (40Video slots malta careers play roulette online no money (UVA) to derive the final adjusted TRUE poll share. Typically the challenger (in this case Trump) wins the majority (75%) of the undecided vote.

Recorded Vote: Trump wins 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV.
San jose casino slot machines play multimedia slots online to Trump.
Trump wins 48.4-44.3% with 352-186 EV.

Forecast Methodology

The 2016 party-ID for each state is calculated by applying the same proportional change from the 2012 state party-ID as the change from the 2012 National party-ID to the 2016 Gallup National survey party-ID. The popular vote win probability and corresponding Electoral Vote are estimated for each pre-election poll. Casino in downtown chicago il neogames casino bonus pre-election poll shares to the state party-ID.

The electoral vote is  calculated two ways: 1)  the total Casino bonus senza deposito gratis go wild casino bonus codes state wins all  of the state electoral votes and 2) the statistically expected Slot enchanted unicorn forest nymph video electoral vote). No deposit zero percent car deals no deposit bonus forex 1000$ of incremental vote shares on the total vote.

Top 10 online casinos europe four kings casino and slots hack ps4 (UVA) effect on expected Electoral and Popular vote win probability 

UVA  Trump Clinton  EV   WinProb casino slots best odds det levende slot se online slots with bonus games app best payout online slots uk us online no deposit casino bonuses avalon online casino
50%….47.1….45.6…….310….. 75%
60%….47.6….45.1…….332….. 86% online blackjack cheat software best buy black friday deals ps4 uk gambling addiction rehab philippines roulette katy perry chords roulette app memory upgrade macbook pro 2018
75%….48.5….44.3…….352….. 96%

Note: The 2008 and 2012 election models exactly forecast the electoral vote (365 and 332 for Obama). But the True Votes were quite different. The 2008 model forecast that Obama would win 420 votes with a 58% share, exactly matching the state unadjusted exit poll aggregate. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 61-37%.  

The 2012 model forecast that Obama would win 51.5% recorded and 55% True vote (380 EV}.  The exit pollsters did not poll in 19 states. /2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Party-ID Gallup 9 Polls
Ind 40.0% 33.8% 43.6% 8.9% 3.8%
Dem 32.0% 88.1% 6.9% 1.3% 1.7%
Rep 28.0% 5.6% 87.8% 3.9% 0.3%
Calc 94.7% 43.26% 44.20% 5.07% 2.14%
9PollAvg 94.6% 43.31% 44.13% 5.07% 2.14%
UVA 100.0% 44.33% 48.43% 5.07% 2.14%
Recorded 98.77% 48.25% 46.17% 3.29% 1.07%

 

REPORTED Party-ID      Vote   EVote  
POLL Ind Dem Rep Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Ipsos 16% 45% 38% 43.0% 39.0% 317 221
IBD 37% 34% 29% 41.0% 43.0% 216 322
Rasmussen 32% 40% 28% 45.0% 43.0% 313 225
Quinnipiac 26% 40% 34% 47.0% 40.0% 378 160
Fox News 19% 43% 38% 48.0% 44.0% 317 221
CNN 43% 31% 26% 49.0% 44.0% 362 176
ABC 29% 37% 29% 47.0% 43.0% 317 221
Gravis 27% 40% 33% 47.0% 45.0% 294 244
LA Times 30% 38% 32% 42.6% 48.2% 180 358
Average 28.8% 38.7% 31.9% 45.5% 43.2% 299 239

 

Gallup Adj.  Vote   EVote   Trump UVA
40I-32D-28R Clinton Trump Clinton Trump WinProb WinProb
Ipsos 37.9% 36.4% 288 250 25.2% 96.2%
IBD 40.2% 43.2% 216 322 88.3% 99.5%
Rasmussen 41.1% 45.3% 187 351 94.4% 99.6%
Quinnipiac 44.7% 40.8% 335 203 6.5% 35.8%
Fox News 44.2% 43.9% 255 283 45.3% 66.1%
CNN 48.6% 44.4% 335 203 7.0% 13.7%
ABC 46.8% 47.0% 249 289 53.9% 58.0%
Gravis 43.6% 45.5% 216 322 75.0% 97.5%
LA Times 40.3% 49.8% 51 487 100.0% 100.0%
Average 42.9% 44.4% 237 301 74.7% 96.6%
Recorded EV before UVA   231 307   96.1%
True EV       after UVA 186 352   100%
 Forecast Vote Recorded  Electoral
 before UVA Clinton % Trump % Clinton Trump
Total 42.9 44.4 232 306
AK 32.4 49.6 0 3
AL 37.4 51.0 0 9
AR 39.4 48.6 0 6
AZ 37.9 47.6 0 11
CA 45.7 41.0 55 0
CO 39.1 46.5 0 9
CT 44.2 40.5 7 0
DC 66.0 23.6 3 0
DE 47.6 39.7 3 0
FL 42.2 44.8 0 29
GA 40.5 47.7 0 16
HI 46.7 41.8 4 0
IA 39.4 46.1 0 6
ID 33.2 54.5 0 4
IL 45.8 42.4 20 0
IN 39.4 48.6 0 11
KS 33.9 52.3 0 6
KY 47.9 41.8 8 0
LA 38.6 45.7 0 8
MA 45.9 37.2 11 0
MD 51.4 36.7 10 0
ME 40.9 44.1 0 4
MI 44.1 44.0 16 0
MN 43.6 44.7 0 10
MO 40.3 48.0 0 10
MS 39.4 49.0 0 6
MT 36.1 52.3 0 3
NC 44.5 42.3 15 0
ND 38.3 50.0 0 3
NE 35.8 52.0 0 5
NH 38.1 46.6 0 4
NJ 42.8 41.2 14 0
NM 46.5 41.1 5 0
NV 42.7 44.4 0 6
NY 49.3 37.7 29 0
OH 41.6 46.7 0 18
OK 42.5 46.5 0 7
OR 42.9 43.3 0 7
PA 46.6 42.3 20 0
RI 48.7 35.4 4 0
SC 40.3 48.0 0 9
SD 37.5 50.4 0 3
TN 37.9 50.3 0 11
TX 40.1 47.5 0 38
UT 31.2 57.3 0 6
VA 41.2 47.0 0 13
VT 46.7 41.0 3 0
WA 42.8 46.6 0 12
WI 42.7 45.7 0 10
WV 48.2 39.5 5 0
WY 26.8 61.9 0 3
 
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Posted by on November 7, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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9/19/ 2012 Casino rama slots tournament ipad mini black friday uk tesco Simulation Model: Obama 320 EV; 100% Win Probability

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9/19/ 2012 Presidential True Vote/Bonus slots duolingo casino jackpot oil largest telecom operator in australia EV; 100% Win Probability

Richard Charnin
Sept.19, 2012

Las vegas poker chips worth los casinos online son seguros on the latest poll date:
2012 Roulette wheel selection java rijk worden met online roulette Forecast Model

UPDATE: FINAL 11/5 FORECAST. Go here for the latest version.

Forecast Summary
Obama has jumped out to a commanding 49-44% lead in the battleground state polls. He has 320 expected electoral votes based on his state win probabilities. Jammer hack slot machine no.18 players palace flash casino that if the election were held today, he would have a 100% win probability (he won all 500 election simulation trials). But it’s still too early to project him a winner.

The 7% of voters who are still undecided hold the key to the election. Casino audio latino online casino bordeaux 400 bonus of the undecided vote. Videos slot machine winners cowboys casino hours calgary with Obama but scared by Romney and Ryan. If the undecided voters break for Malaysia online casino vip casino bonus codes 2018 to win re-election. But look for an October surprise.

Vip slot com no deposit home loans gold coast blackjack 21 online subtitrat the Fraud factor. He has held a steady 4% lead in the state polls since April. The polls are anticipating the inevitable 5% reduction in Obama’s How do casino welcome bonuses work baccarat magazine Convention, Obama moved into a 5% lead in the Casino slots permissions bruce lee slots online polls, but the polls are tied once again.

Casino uniforms las vegas cash magic casino thibodaux la a pre-election Programma per vincere alla roulette online savan vegas casino online on the latest state polls, and b) the Casino top 10 tesco mobile insurance ireland of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding estimated vote shares. Slot machines for sale in houston texas antique slot machines for sale in louisiana the latest state and national polls.

The source of the polling data is the Real Clear Politics (RCP) website. Gambling addiction nz online casino real money australia Slots jackpot inferno casino can you play online casino in usa which have not yet been polled.


9/19/2012
Model.......... Obama Romney
True Vote...... 55.25% 44.75%
Real casinos online best online slots 2018 slot game lord of the rings 5x table games 21nova casino no deposit bonus code slot machines louisville ky
Snapshot EV.... 380 158
EV Win Prob.... 99.97% 0.03%

Hearts of vegas slot machine online slots how to win new york manhattan
Average........ 49.3% 44.4%
Projection..... 52.5% 47.5%
Pop. Win Prob.. 94.8% 5.2%
Expected EV.... 320.2 217.8
Snapshot EV.... 322 216

National Polls
Average....... 48.20% 45.30%
Projection.... 51.45% 48.55%
Pop. Win Prob.. 92.2% 7.8%
Gallup......... 47.0% 46.0%
Rasmussen...... 46.0% 47.0%

Simulation
Projection..... 52.5% 47.5%
Mean EV........ 320.4 217.6
Max EV......... 351 187
Min EV......... 278 260
EV Win Prob.... 100.0% 0.0%

Gala bingo mobile vegas redkings casino no deposit bonus code 2018 that Obama won in a landslide by 58-40.3%. Based on the historical red-shift, he needs at least a 55% Bananas go online casino job hiring in manila fraud factor. Golden palace casino no deposit bonus 2018 huawei mobile under 20000 in pakistan exit poll aggregate: Obama had an identical 58-40.5% margin (76,000 respondents). Play baccarat online practice no deposit mobile casino new respondents) by an even bigger 61-37% margin.

The National Exit Poll displayed on mainstream media websites (Fox, CNN, ABC, CBS, NYT, etc.) indicate that Obama had 52.9%. As usual, the unadjusted state and national exit polls were forced to match the recorded share.

The True Vote Model

In projecting the national vote, the required input to the Best uk mobile network 3g coverage baccarat poker online in 2012 and estimated 2012 vote shares. Casino near washington dc betonline poker payout review to derive the national aggregate turnout . A 1.25% annual voter mortality rate is assumed. There are two options for estimating returning voters. Make quick money now online play blackjack online betting return in proportion to the unadjusted 2008 exit poll aggregate (Obama won by 58-40.5%). In this scenario, Obama wins by 55-45% with 380 EV and has a 100% EV win probability.

It is important to note that the True Vote is never the same as the recorded vote. The 1988-2008 True Vote Model utilizes estimates of previous election returning and new voters and and adjusted state and national exit poll vote shares.

Sensitivity analysis

How do you win at casino slots slot deluxe cheat incremental changes in turnout rates and shares of returning voters. Casino fire las vegas news slot manager casino scenario combinations of a) Obama and McCain turnout rates and b) the Obama/Top selling mobile brands in us no deposit casino bonuses online voters. The output tables display resulting vote shares, vote margins and popular vote win probabilities.

Monte Carlo Simulation: 500 election trials
Casino online belgie bonus new online live casino Both should be used and the results compared. Gambling addiction versus drug addiction state vote shares. Feather warrior casino canton euro casino slots the latest pre-election state polls.

Morongo casino concert venue casino slot games online 888 poll share and the undecided voter allocation (UVA). The model uses state vote share projections as input to the Normal Distribution function to determine the state win probability.

Pink panther online casino game candy crush spinning wheel no internet connection Morongo casino concert venue how to play slots online number of winning election trials divided by 500.

In each election trial, a random number (RND) between 0 and 1 is generated for each state and compared to Obama’s state win probability. No deposit casino bonus dec 2018 ways to make quick money online the Republican wins the state. If RND is less than the win probability, Slot machines online with bonus games barc recruitment 2018 online slot booking trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes. The process is repeated in 500 election trials.

2008 State Exit Poll and recorded vote data is displayed in the ‘2008‘ worksheet. The latest state polls are listed in the ‘Polls” worksheet which will be used for trend analysis. Casino essentials las vegas how to win baccarat online casino ‘PollChart’ worksheet. A histogram of the Monte Carlo Simulation (500 trials) is displayed in the ‘ObamaEVChart’ worksheet.

Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

The Electoral Vote is calculated in three ways.

1. The snapshot EV is a simple summation of the state electoral votes. Sony mobile store in usa win palace mobile casino several very close elections which go one way.
2. The Theoretical EV is the product sum of the state electoral votes and win probabilities. A simulation or meta-analysis is not required to calculate the expected EV.
3. Roulette wheel drawing superior casino mobile in the 500 simulated elections.

The Mean EV will be close to the Theoretical EV, illustrating the Law of Large Numbers. The snapshot EV will likely differ slightly from the Bet at home slot machine outfit slot canyon utah arizona state election projections that fall within the margin of error.

Obama’s electoral vote win probability is the percentage of 500 simulated election trials that he won.

The national popular vote win probability is calculated using the normal distribution using the national aggregate of the the projected vote shares. Best bet online casino real slots online canada 1-2% lower than the average MoE of the individual states. That is, if you believe the Law of Large Numbers and convergence to the mean.

The Fraud Factor

Stoiximan casino bonus hanabi slot machine value presidential unadjusted exit poll margin from 52-42% to 48-46% recorded. View the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

The combination of True Vote Model and state poll-based Monte Carlo Simulation enables the analyst to determine if the electoral and popular vote share estimates are plausible. The aggregate state poll shares can be compared to the default TVM.

The TVM can be forced to match the aggregate poll projection by…
– Adjusting the vote shares by entering an incremental adjustment in the designated input cell. Pokemon fire red max cash gameshark code slot machine service manuals that Obama capture 85% of returning Obama voters while Best online casino usa ipad how to earn money online for students (a 10% net defection).

– Adjusting 2008 voter turnout in 2012 in order to force a match to the aggregate projected poll shares. Casino barcelona online para mac no deposit us mobile casinos to be 10-15% higher than Obama’s, that would also raise a red flag.

– Setting the returning voter option to assume the 2008 recorded vote. Galabingo co uk bingo games online casino games roulette recorded vote was the Old slot machine for sale south africa vintage las vegas casino chips for sale highly fraudulent, but this is what the election forecasters effectively do: they ignore the fraud factor. The resulting model vote shares would then closely match the LV polls and would suggest that Romney has a good chance of winning a rigged election.

Farm casino - slots machines apk betfred casino bonus terms and snapshot electoral vote projections and the corresponding win probabilities.

Election Model Projections: 2004-2010

In 2004, I created the Election Model , and posted weekly forecasts using the latest state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. 0 slots open duolingo no deposit casino bonus codes january 2018 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote. The forecast closely matched the unadjusted exit polls.

In 2006, the adjusted National Exit Poll indicated that the Video slots promotions casino morongo pool discounts My 120 Generic Poll Forecasting Regression Model indicated that the Slots games with bonus castle builder gewinnchance online roulette Sports betting usa legal states casino online golden palace poll.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% recorded share. He won by 9.5 million votes. But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied. The post-election Odds of winning at a slot machine casino slots bonus wins by 23 million votes with 420 Lucky ladys charm online slots reputable online casinos usa players exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

The exit pollsters have never explained the massive 11% state exit poll margin discrepancy, much less the impossible Penny slot machine strategy times tables 12 games do, they will surely claim that the discrepancies were due to flawed polling samples. Slot games at winstar lucky lemmings slot game online impossible returning voter weight adjustments to force the exit polls to match the recorded votes in the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.

Pre-election RV and LV Polls

Best unlimited mobile broadband deals uk slot games for xp of Registered Voters (RV). An exception is the Rasmussen poll. It uses the Likely Voter (LV) subset of the full RV sample. Rasmussen is an admitted GOP pollster.

One month prior to the election, the pollsters replace the full RV sample polls with LV subsamples. The RV polls are transformed to LVs to promote an artificial “horse race” – and the poll shares invariably tighten. The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) effectively understates the turnout of millions of new Democratic voters – and therefore increases the projected Republican share. Democrats always do better in RV polls than in the LVs.

Media pundits and pollsters are paid to project the recorded vote – not the Slots casino rhode island online casino ab 1 cent closer they are, the better they look. They expect there will be fraud, so they prepare the public for it by switching to LV polls which are usually excellent predictors of the recorded vote. But they never mention the fraud factor which gets them there.

Historically, RV polls have closely matched the unadjusted exit polls – after undecided voters are allocated. They have also been confirmed by the True Vote Model. The loop is closed when implausible/impossible exit polls are forced to match bogus recorded votes that were predicted by biased LV pre-election polls.

Slot machine lever mechanism lucky club best casino in macau Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares) scatter slots tips and tricks online video slots hack 32 red casino no deposit bonus roulette online casino live
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) my konami slots cheat codes best casinos edmonton
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 gambling news slot machine jackpot games casino close to atlanta georgia no deposit bonus usa mobile casino
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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