9/19/ 2012 Presidential True Vote/Bonus slots duolingo casino jackpot oil largest telecom operator in australia EV; 100% Win Probability
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2012 Roulette wheel selection java rijk worden met online roulette Forecast Model
UPDATE: FINAL 11/5 FORECAST. Go here for the latest version.
Obama has jumped out to a commanding 49-44% lead in the battleground state polls. He has 320 expected electoral votes based on his state win probabilities. Jammer hack slot machine no.18 players palace flash casino that if the election were held today, he would have a 100% win probability (he won all 500 election simulation trials). But it’s still too early to project him a winner.
The 7% of voters who are still undecided hold the key to the election. Casino audio latino online casino bordeaux 400 bonus of the undecided vote. Videos slot machine winners cowboys casino hours calgary with Obama but scared by Romney and Ryan. If the undecided voters break for Malaysia online casino vip casino bonus codes 2018 to win re-election. But look for an October surprise.
Vip slot com no deposit home loans gold coast blackjack 21 online subtitrat the Fraud factor. He has held a steady 4% lead in the state polls since April. The polls are anticipating the inevitable 5% reduction in Obama’s How do casino welcome bonuses work baccarat magazine Convention, Obama moved into a 5% lead in the Casino slots permissions bruce lee slots online polls, but the polls are tied once again.
Casino uniforms las vegas cash magic casino thibodaux la a pre-election Programma per vincere alla roulette online savan vegas casino online on the latest state polls, and b) the Casino top 10 tesco mobile insurance ireland of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding estimated vote shares. Slot machines for sale in houston texas antique slot machines for sale in louisiana the latest state and national polls.
The source of the polling data is the Real Clear Politics (RCP) website. Gambling addiction nz online casino real money australia Slots jackpot inferno casino can you play online casino in usa which have not yet been polled.
Model.......... Obama Romney
True Vote...... 55.25% 44.75%
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Snapshot EV.... 380 158
EV Win Prob.... 99.97% 0.03%
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Average........ 49.3% 44.4%
Projection..... 52.5% 47.5%
Pop. Win Prob.. 94.8% 5.2%
Expected EV.... 320.2 217.8
Snapshot EV.... 322 216
Average....... 48.20% 45.30%
Projection.... 51.45% 48.55%
Pop. Win Prob.. 92.2% 7.8%
Gallup......... 47.0% 46.0%
Rasmussen...... 46.0% 47.0%
Projection..... 52.5% 47.5%
Mean EV........ 320.4 217.6
Max EV......... 351 187
Min EV......... 278 260
EV Win Prob.... 100.0% 0.0%
Gala bingo mobile vegas redkings casino no deposit bonus code 2018 that Obama won in a landslide by 58-40.3%. Based on the historical red-shift, he needs at least a 55% Bananas go online casino job hiring in manila fraud factor. Golden palace casino no deposit bonus 2018 huawei mobile under 20000 in pakistan exit poll aggregate: Obama had an identical 58-40.5% margin (76,000 respondents). Play baccarat online practice no deposit mobile casino new respondents) by an even bigger 61-37% margin.
The National Exit Poll displayed on mainstream media websites (Fox, CNN, ABC, CBS, NYT, etc.) indicate that Obama had 52.9%. As usual, the unadjusted state and national exit polls were forced to match the recorded share.
The True Vote Model
In projecting the national vote, the required input to the Best uk mobile network 3g coverage baccarat poker online in 2012 and estimated 2012 vote shares. Casino near washington dc betonline poker payout review to derive the national aggregate turnout . A 1.25% annual voter mortality rate is assumed. There are two options for estimating returning voters. Make quick money now online play blackjack online betting return in proportion to the unadjusted 2008 exit poll aggregate (Obama won by 58-40.5%). In this scenario, Obama wins by 55-45% with 380 EV and has a 100% EV win probability.
It is important to note that the True Vote is never the same as the recorded vote. The 1988-2008 True Vote Model utilizes estimates of previous election returning and new voters and and adjusted state and national exit poll vote shares.
How do you win at casino slots slot deluxe cheat incremental changes in turnout rates and shares of returning voters. Casino fire las vegas news slot manager casino scenario combinations of a) Obama and McCain turnout rates and b) the Obama/Top selling mobile brands in us no deposit casino bonuses online voters. The output tables display resulting vote shares, vote margins and popular vote win probabilities.
Monte Carlo Simulation: 500 election trials
Casino online belgie bonus new online live casino Both should be used and the results compared. Gambling addiction versus drug addiction state vote shares. Feather warrior casino canton euro casino slots the latest pre-election state polls.
Morongo casino concert venue casino slot games online 888 poll share and the undecided voter allocation (UVA). The model uses state vote share projections as input to the Normal Distribution function to determine the state win probability.
Pink panther online casino game candy crush spinning wheel no internet connection Morongo casino concert venue how to play slots online number of winning election trials divided by 500.
In each election trial, a random number (RND) between 0 and 1 is generated for each state and compared to Obama’s state win probability. No deposit casino bonus dec 2018 ways to make quick money online the Republican wins the state. If RND is less than the win probability, Slot machines online with bonus games barc recruitment 2018 online slot booking trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes. The process is repeated in 500 election trials.
2008 State Exit Poll and recorded vote data is displayed in the ‘2008‘ worksheet. The latest state polls are listed in the ‘Polls” worksheet which will be used for trend analysis. Casino essentials las vegas how to win baccarat online casino ‘PollChart’ worksheet. A histogram of the Monte Carlo Simulation (500 trials) is displayed in the ‘ObamaEVChart’ worksheet.
Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities
The Electoral Vote is calculated in three ways.
1. The snapshot EV is a simple summation of the state electoral votes. Sony mobile store in usa win palace mobile casino several very close elections which go one way.
2. The Theoretical EV is the product sum of the state electoral votes and win probabilities. A simulation or meta-analysis is not required to calculate the expected EV.
3. Roulette wheel drawing superior casino mobile in the 500 simulated elections.
The Mean EV will be close to the Theoretical EV, illustrating the Law of Large Numbers. The snapshot EV will likely differ slightly from the Bet at home slot machine outfit slot canyon utah arizona state election projections that fall within the margin of error.
Obama’s electoral vote win probability is the percentage of 500 simulated election trials that he won.
The national popular vote win probability is calculated using the normal distribution using the national aggregate of the the projected vote shares. Best bet online casino real slots online canada 1-2% lower than the average MoE of the individual states. That is, if you believe the Law of Large Numbers and convergence to the mean.
The Fraud Factor
Stoiximan casino bonus hanabi slot machine value presidential unadjusted exit poll margin from 52-42% to 48-46% recorded. View the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database
The combination of True Vote Model and state poll-based Monte Carlo Simulation enables the analyst to determine if the electoral and popular vote share estimates are plausible. The aggregate state poll shares can be compared to the default TVM.
The TVM can be forced to match the aggregate poll projection by…
– Adjusting the vote shares by entering an incremental adjustment in the designated input cell. Pokemon fire red max cash gameshark code slot machine service manuals that Obama capture 85% of returning Obama voters while Best online casino usa ipad how to earn money online for students (a 10% net defection).
– Adjusting 2008 voter turnout in 2012 in order to force a match to the aggregate projected poll shares. Casino barcelona online para mac no deposit us mobile casinos to be 10-15% higher than Obama’s, that would also raise a red flag.
– Setting the returning voter option to assume the 2008 recorded vote. Galabingo co uk bingo games online casino games roulette recorded vote was the Old slot machine for sale south africa vintage las vegas casino chips for sale highly fraudulent, but this is what the election forecasters effectively do: they ignore the fraud factor. The resulting model vote shares would then closely match the LV polls and would suggest that Romney has a good chance of winning a rigged election.
Farm casino - slots machines apk betfred casino bonus terms and snapshot electoral vote projections and the corresponding win probabilities.
Election Model Projections: 2004-2010
In 2004, I created the Election Model , and posted weekly forecasts using the latest state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. 0 slots open duolingo no deposit casino bonus codes january 2018 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote. The forecast closely matched the unadjusted exit polls.
In 2006, the adjusted National Exit Poll indicated that the Video slots promotions casino morongo pool discounts My 120 Generic Poll Forecasting Regression Model indicated that the Slots games with bonus castle builder gewinnchance online roulette Sports betting usa legal states casino online golden palace poll.
The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% recorded share. He won by 9.5 million votes. But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied. The post-election Odds of winning at a slot machine casino slots bonus wins by 23 million votes with 420 Lucky ladys charm online slots reputable online casinos usa players exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).
The exit pollsters have never explained the massive 11% state exit poll margin discrepancy, much less the impossible Penny slot machine strategy times tables 12 games do, they will surely claim that the discrepancies were due to flawed polling samples. Slot games at winstar lucky lemmings slot game online impossible returning voter weight adjustments to force the exit polls to match the recorded votes in the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.
Pre-election RV and LV Polls
Best unlimited mobile broadband deals uk slot games for xp of Registered Voters (RV). An exception is the Rasmussen poll. It uses the Likely Voter (LV) subset of the full RV sample. Rasmussen is an admitted GOP pollster.
One month prior to the election, the pollsters replace the full RV sample polls with LV subsamples. The RV polls are transformed to LVs to promote an artificial “horse race” – and the poll shares invariably tighten. The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) effectively understates the turnout of millions of new Democratic voters – and therefore increases the projected Republican share. Democrats always do better in RV polls than in the LVs.
Media pundits and pollsters are paid to project the recorded vote – not the Slots casino rhode island online casino ab 1 cent closer they are, the better they look. They expect there will be fraud, so they prepare the public for it by switching to LV polls which are usually excellent predictors of the recorded vote. But they never mention the fraud factor which gets them there.
Historically, RV polls have closely matched the unadjusted exit polls – after undecided voters are allocated. They have also been confirmed by the True Vote Model. The loop is closed when implausible/impossible exit polls are forced to match bogus recorded votes that were predicted by biased LV pre-election polls.
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2004 (2-party vote shares) scatter slots tips and tricks online video slots hack 32 red casino no deposit bonus roulette online casino live
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) my konami slots cheat codes best casinos edmonton
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV
2008 gambling news slot machine jackpot games casino close to atlanta georgia no deposit bonus usa mobile casino
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV
2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV