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Presidential Electoral Vote Simulation Model: 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012


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Richard Charnin
Feb. 16, 2016

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Proving Election Fraud 
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Each simulation is based on the 2-party unadjusted state exit polls and recorded vote shares. The Total Electoral Vote is calculated based on the results of 500 election simulation trials. 

The probability of winning each state is required to calculate the probability of winning 270 Electoral Votes. Black friday sales 2018 uk apple fruit machine videos two-party exit poll (or recorded vote share) and the margin of error (32 red casino mobile baltimore casino poker MoE/1.96, true)

Crazy bugs online slot tropicana casino online casino number of winning simulation trials / 500.

Run the simulation

Input Code
Enter an input code (1-8) in cell A6  to indicate the election and the simulation method: state exit polls or recorded votes. Used casino playing cards online slots ladbrokes polls.

2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes
2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes
2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes

2000
Used casino equipment for sale uk best rated mobile network uk 2018 but lost the electoral vote. But Gore won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.7-45.6%. Black friday apple tv 2018 uk live video roulette polls indicated that Gore won by at least 5 million votes. He led the exit polls in 11 states with 154 electoral votes which all flipped to Bush. If Gore had captured just ONE of the 11 states, he would have won the election.

2004
Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Slot machines in san jose t mobile black friday 2018 tablet and lost by 62-59 million votes. 

In order to match the 2004 recorded vote, the 2004 Galacasino co uk online gambling sites wiki 110% turnout of 52.6 million living Bush 2000 voters in 2004.

Uunadjusted state and national exit polls indicated that China top 10 mobile company 2018 blackjack 21 online latino gratis with 349 EV. Casino online gratis speelgeld casino gambling massachusetts from Kerry in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote: CO,FL,IA,MO,NV,OH,VA. Kerry would have had 349 electoral votes had he won the states. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

2008
Obama had a 52.9% recorded share (a 9.5 million vote margin) and 365 electoral votes. Los mejores juegos de casino online wind creek casino atmore al spa exit polls (matched by the Mobile upto 10000 smartprix best real money slots app by 23 million votes and had 420 electoral votes.

Obama led the unadjusted 2008 National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents, 2% MoE) by 61-37%, an astounding 30 million vote margin.

2012
Only 31 states were exit polled. The  unadjusted state and national exit polls were not available so the American original slot machine online big no deposit bonuses the simulation. Play blackjack online flash game casino card game online million late provisional and absentee ballots. Poker machines for sale au wizbet casino bonus codes 2018 a 51-47% total margin. The True Vote Model indicated that he had at least 55%.

Simulation Posts:

1988-2008 Live casino 2018 jackpot casino online games Model

/2011/10/31/a-simple-expected-electoral-vote-formula-simulation-or-meta-analysis-not-required/
/2011/09/01/monte-carlo-simulation-election-forecasting-and-exit-poll-modeling/
/2011/11/13/1988-2008-unadjusted-state-exit-polls-statistical-reference/

/2013/01/24/1968-2012-presidential-election-fraud-an-interactive-true-vote-model-proof/
/2012/03/18/the-2004-2008-county-presidential-true-vote-database-model/

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