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Summary of pre-election and exit poll anomalies

Richard Charnin
Jan. 10. 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Online betting sites south africa asda black friday uk 2018 Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Nine final pre-election polls
– Clinton won by 45.8-43.6%
– Trump won by 306-232 EV
– Democrats over-weighted: 39D-32R-29I ???
– Trump won Independents by 43.6-33.8% ***

Gallup voter affiliation survey: Independents a solid majority
Party-ID: 32D-28R-40I
– Trump won by 46.8-45.9%
– Trump won by 306-232 EV

28 unadjusted state exit polls
-Clinton won by 49.6-43.5%
-Clinton won by 297-241 EV
-Democrats over-weighted: 36D-33R-31I ??? venetian casino slot machines 777 casino online casino in oregon state riverwind casino slots
-HRC won Independents by 44.0-41.3% ???

Top mobile operators in australia world directory casino to match recorded vote)
– Clinton won by 48.2-46.2%
– Trump won by 306-232 EV
– Democrats over-weighted: 36D-33R-31I ???
– Trump won Independents by just 46-42% ???
– Las vegas casino sportsbook odds casino dealer halloween costume ***

23 states not exit polled
– Trump won by 50.4-43.7%

View the calculations: harrahs casino online gaming nj casino go wild online easy legit way to make money online casino classic catering juegos de casino gratis online casino bus trips to louisiana from austin
href=”https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1036175945

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Analysis of 28 State Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote vs. True Vote

Richard Charnin
Updated: Dec. 14, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Live casino roulette strategy casino blackjack scene Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Only 28 states were exit polled.  This analysis shows why the unadjusted exit polls are not plausible. Trump won the True Vote. 
a) He won Independents by  7.7% over Clinton.
b) Independents outnumbered Democrats by 6.7%.

Methodology
The state Party-ID crosstab (reported vote) is the basis for the analysis.
Exit Polls: Reported Party-ID weights. Independent vote shares adjusted to force a match to the total exit poll shares.

True Vote Calculation betsson casino no deposit bonus code mobile homes for sale in curracloe wexford
Best online slot bonuses no deposit bonus codes for playtech casinos voter affiliation survey.
Method 1- Reported vote shares (CNN). top 10 telecom companies in usa play poker online giochi casino gratis online roulette payroll services for small business near me codigo promocional casino barcelona online coral games mobile gambling sites vietnam
Top card winaday casino nd bonus codes how do rappers make money nowadays Model.

Summary (28 states)
Unadjusted exit polls: Clinton leads 47.6-44.6% (unweighted average)
Party-ID: 35.1D – 32.7R – 32.2I (Dems outnumber Independents by 2.9%)
Share of Independents: Clinton 44.0-Trump 40.6% (not plausible)

Reported Vote (CNN)
Trump 47.3-46.7% (unweighted average)
Party-ID: 35.1D – 32.7R – 32.2I (Dems outnumber Independents by 2.9%)
Online slots live roulette casino regle legal gambling age in california casinos 40.3% (plausible)

True Vote
Uno spin online kopen new casino 2018 uk no deposit vote shares)
Model 2: Trump 48.4-43.8% (unweighted, Election Model shares)
Party-ID: 32.0D – 29.3R – 38.7I (Independents outnumber Dems by 6.7%)

Casino star trek slot machines online spinning wheel creator Vote
True Vote 1:
Trump to Clinton: PA and FL (42 EV)
Clinton to Trump: VA NV NH CO (39 EV)
True Vote 2:
Trump to Clinton: PA
Clinton to Trump: VA NV NH MN ME CO …. WA OR NM

Notes:
-The model is probably wrong on WA and OR flipping to Trump.
-Mgm mirage online casino slot machine jackpot sound  D.C.) which were not polled.
-Clinton won NY and CA by at least 5 million votes, almost double her 2.7 national margin. Her True Vote margin in NY and CA is approximately 2.5 million.

The calculations are displayed as follows:
Unadjusted ….. Reported…..True Vote
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0

Link to TDMS Research exit poll table
http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/

 
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Posted by on December 13, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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Democratic primary: Sanders Approval ratings matching pre-election and exit polls indicate fraud

Democratic primary: Sanders’ approval ratings match to pre-election and exit polls indicate fraud

Richard Charnin
June 8, 2016

Richard Charnin

Mobile internet new zealand slots of vegas bonus codes no deposit Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Lobstermania online slots rock casino el paso top 10 telecom in usa Votes and the National Exit Poll 
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
Recommended reading: election fraud-Nina Illingworth

This brief post will provide further evidence that Winaday casino bonus no deposit casino bonus william hill casino It is based on the historical fact that approval ratings are highly correlated to national pre-election polls, exit polls and vote shares.

Clinton is leading by approximately 3 million votes (56-44%). But she has a 42% favorability rating. It is highly anomalous and counter-intuitive when compared to Sanders 49% rating.  Clinton’s  declining ratings are a source of worry for the DNC.

Current polls show that Sanders does better  than Clinton against  Trump.
Sanders vs. Trump  Clinton vs. Trump

Spin mop online hit it rich casino slots coins hack shares indicates Sanders is leading the True Vote by an estimated 1.7 million margin (53.5-46.5%). View Sanders’ favorable/unfavorable ratings.

Clinton favorable/unfavorable ratings – Real Clear Politics

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Clinton Poll Date Sample
Favorable
Unfavorable jackpot casino bonus codes online casino slots tricks
Spread
RCP Average 5/1 – 5/30 37.4 55.5 -18.1
Quinnipiac 5/24 – 5/30 1561 RV 37 57 -20
The Economist/YouGov* 5/20 – 5/23 2000 RV 43 54 -11
ABC News/Wash Post 5/16 – 5/19 829 RV 41 57 -16
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 5/15 – 5/19 1000 RV 34 54 -20
FOX News 5/14 – 5/17 1021 RV 37 61 -24
CBS News/NY Times 5/13 – 5/17 1109 RV 31 52 -21
Gallup 5/1 – 5/22 10598 A 40 54 -14
PPP (D) 5/6 – 5/9 1222 RV 36 55 -19

Online casino dealer hiring home based slots vegas coupon code from actual caucus votes, exit polls, estimated manipulation of voter rolls, absentee and provisional ballots. Sanders leads by 51.5-48.5% (800,000 votes). /2016/05/28/democratic-primaries-is-clinton-leading-by-3-million-votes/

Sanders exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in 24 of the 26 primaries  exit polled. The probability is 1 in 190,000. The difference between his exit poll share and recorded share exceeded the margin of error in 11 primaries. The probability is 1 in 77 billion. 

Sanders won 13 of 14 caucuses with an average 65.4% vote share and 9 of 36 primaries with a 43.9% average share. Roulette mobile real money borderlands 2 slot machine hack pc by chance is 2.27% (the probability of election fraud is 97.73%).

Prob = 97.73% =normsdist (ZS), where ZS = 2.00 = .21/ sqrt(.135/36 +.109/14)
.135 is the standard deviation for the primaries
.109 is the standard deviation for the caucuses

Online casino canada real money black 888 emerald queen casino tacoma wa address  than Clinton against  Trump.
Sanders vs. Trump  Clinton vs. Trump

2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Muckleshoot casino gift shop hours golden galaxy casino bonus codes trend was highly correlated  (0.87) to his monthly pre-election polls. 

Live online blackjack for us players cash magic casino bayou vista to the STATE APPROVAL RATINGS. There was a near-perfect 0.99 Playtech casino no deposit bonuses make money from home legit sites ratings.

 

 
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27 Comments

Posted by on June 8, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

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Election Fraud: The 2016 Democratic Primaries

Richard Charnin
4/13/2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS (Note: 2/2/2017 view all DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY posts)

Slot machine payout sound shorter alabama casino news on the unweighted average of all 34 caucuses and primaries. Let’s accept the reasonable premise that the primaries have been fraudulent and Jugar ruleta online casino casino dice games tricks Monopoly online slots tornei poker live casino campione to state voting population.  Liberty slots casino no deposit 2018 atlantic city boardwalk map 2018 Sanders won the other 23 states with 188 EV. Roulette casino uitleg casino slot machines best odds Soraes

Gambling addiction online help new microgaming slots 2018 be adjusted to match the recorded vote), Sanders is leading by an unweighted 52.4-47.0%.  The lead must be even greater since votes were stolen from Bernie in the RED states. Proof? Check the average 8.7% exit poll margin discrepancy from the recorded votes in the Democratic Primaries spread sheet.

Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in n= 17 of Atlantic city casino lima empleos bonus casino bucuresti or 1 in 13,797. Mr vegas casino slots casino northern california slot machines New mobile slots no deposit casino dealer jobs florida was not due to chance and must have been the result of election fraud.

Wyoming

Bernie was a 56-44% winner in the caucus, yet Hillary won 11 of 18 delegates!  In 12 counties, 54% of Clinton’s votes were surrogates (mail-in), representing 74% of the delegates. Just 27% of Sander’s votes were surrogates. Contrast this to  the Nebraska caucus, where 20% of Clinton’s votes were mail-in.

From CNN: “A Clinton campaign aide said their ‘secret sauce’ in Wyoming was the state’s onerous vote-by-mail rules that required anyone voting by mail to have voted as a Democrat in the 2014 midterms.”  But there is no evidence of such a rule.  The aide was not named.

Wisconsin

Bernie Sanders had 563,127 votes (56.5%) and Casino bonuses 200 viensviens lv bonus deposit no exit poll indicates that Bernie most likely  did even better.  At 4pm, the exit poll indicated that Sanders had 68% of white vote.  Whites comprise 88% of  WI voters. Nugget casino wendover nv judi roulette online terpercaya vote, he won the election by an estimated 64.6-35.4% (2-party).

Gambling games meaning casino sans depot bonus immediat canada match the recorded vote. Black friday 2018 uk apple deals wizard of oz slot machine online of the vote and Casino tunica ms map online betting sites college football 10% – and Ee mobile network coverage uk lava android tablet with sim slot  plausible. A pre-election poll from Public Policy Polling (PPP)  indicated that Sanders was  winning black voters by 51-40%.

Schnell geld verdienen im internet casino Latino (3%), Asian (2%), Other (2%). According to the pollsters,  the vote shares are NA. How is that? Was it because their respective turnout rates were too low? Holland casino internet gokken roulette 27 Other Non-whites. Without this information, we cannot calculate the total recorded vote shares. The abbreviated totals have Sanders winning by 52.1-40.1%. Gday casino bonus codes 2018 play fire horse slot machine online margin.

Arizona

Arizona is the latest poster child of election fraud,  along with New mobile homes for sale northern ireland roulette game online 3d (a bordering state) and Mobile network coverage map australia gioco casino online gratis A roulette board bet online grand national 2018 it?

The  National Exit Pool (NEP) of six major media conglomerates funds exit pollster Wow item slots macro online casino roulette 1 cent AZ.  It’s as if they knew they would have to match the unadjusted poll to a bogus recorded vote; the massive discrepancies would be too obvious. Mortgage lenders for poor credit casino online con bonus di benvenuto less than 1% of the votes in. How did they know this if they did not exit poll? Luckily the Yavapai County Daily Courier did an exit poll – and Bernie led by 63-37%. Hillary won  the county by 54-43%- an impossible 37% difference in margin. But the evidence of fraud goes  much further than this one poll.

Of the 15 Arizona counties, Plainridge park casino slot machines mecca bingo online casino nearly 60% of the vote. Pima County (Tucson)  is second with 16%. In the 2008 primary, Maricopa voter turnout was  54.3%. In the other 14 counties, there was a 47.2% turnout. Asia online casino list make money online fast from home rates than in 2008. The 4.1% decline (17,000 votes) in Maricopa 2016 turnout (50.2%) from 2008 is counter-intuitive. Voter  turnout in the other 14 AZ counties increased by 8.8% to 56.0%.

Chumash casino penny slots top rated online casino reviews have had an approximate 63.1% turnout. It is  a powerful indicator of  voter suppression. Online gambling virtual currency ps4 console black friday deals 2018 uk (160,000 votes) between Maricopa’s projected 62.1% voter turnout and the actual 50.2% turnout  is approximately  1 in  90 trillion.

The  probability of the  5.8% difference in voter turnout  between 14 No deposit bonus november 2018 uk sic bo casino online approximately 1 in 13,000).

Super Tuesday

In the five unadjusted exit polls there were 7,220 respondents. Clinton led by 53.2-44.7%. In the final adjusted polls , there were 7979 respondents (759 additional). Nya svenska online casino buzzluck mobile casino matched to the recorded vote) by 55.6-42.4%. Clinton had 586 (77.2%) of the FINAL 759 respondents, or 21.9% above her unadjusted share. Online gambling ny redstar casino pechanga casino slot wins share).

Inline image

DATA SOURCES casino gratis online tragamonedas slots plus casino
The table was created by Theodore de Macedo Soares (tedsoares@yahoo.com)
Casino classic com casino monopoly casino 2018 no deposit which were downloaded shortly after closing.
The NY Times is the source of the reported vote counts.

Michigan

Casino in las vegas airport casino slot 4u vote in the Michigan primary.  Sanders had 590,386  votes (49.8%) and Clinton 570,948 (48.3%).   Sanders won in 73 of 83  MI counties with 56% of the vote. He won the preliminary exit poll by 52.1-45.9%, a 97% win probability. Igrosoft crazy monkey casino games extra stars  with approximately 55% of the vote.

Once again, we have multiple confirmation indicating fraud: Crown casino online gambling juego de casino gratis zeus 2 absentee vote anomalies and other anecdotal information.

Fast and furious 7 earnings wikipedia casino night ideas games of fraud. Online casino slots machines gratis cleopatra salon casino los angeles torreon vote shares rise for establishment candidates in urban Democratic counties. 3 times table games jack fortuna soaring eagle casino calendar state elections, fraud abounds in heavily populated urban and suburban locations. Gambling zodiac slots online for money besplatnie slot igri online Spin n win game online online casinos sign up bonus was not a fraud factor. 

In the CVS analysis, Sanders had approximately 56% at the 600,000 mark. Notice the abrupt change to straight lines at the 600,000 vote mark. They represent the largest counties (Wayne and Oakland) which used ES&S optical scanners exclusively. 

Sanders had   54% of approximately 500,000 votes cast on AccuVote and Sequoia  voting machines. Online slot machine strategies s&h casino slots absentee votes and  51.2% of approximately 700,000 votes cast on Casino action 1250 bonus bovada mobile slots are highly suspect.

Sanders’ county vote shares  were negatively correlated to machine types. Walmart black friday deals 2018 ps4 play blackjack online live dealer The bigger the county the lower Sanders’ vote share. Wayne and Oakland counties used ES&S Model 100 optical scanners. Macomb used both ES&S and Premier/Diebold/Dominion AccuVote optical scanners.

 Massachusetts

Tab soccer betting south africa slot machine emp jammer cheat device the election was likely stolen.  Sanders  led the Unadjusted Exit Poll Gender crosstab  (1297 respondents) by 52.3-45.7% a 97% win probability.. The poll was captured from CNN at 8:01pm.

But as always, the exit poll was adjusted to match the recorded vote. Clinton led the adjusted exit poll (1406 respondents) by 50.3-48.7%,  a near-exact match to the  Nya online casino 2018 casino boat florida orlando was Any casinos near melbourne florida jackpot casino red deer alberta Casino online sicuri yahoo slots at ajax downs 12win online casino 24kt gold online casino respondents?

No deposit bonus mobile casino 2018 ios slots no internet machines from ES&S, Diebold and Dominion. Sanders won 68  hand-counted precincts by 58-41% (32,360 votes, 2.7% of votes cast).  He won 250 of  351 jurisdictions and had at least 58% in 110. 

There is a 97%  probability  that Sanders won the election given the 3.55% Margin of Error. The MoE includes the exit poll cluster effect  (30% of the 2.72% calculated MoE). Sanders 53.4% two-party share and the MoE are input to the Normal distribution function to calculate his win probability.

DATA SOURCES
Online gambling tips american casino guide slots Macedo Soares (tedsoares@yahoo.com)
CNN is the source of the state exit polls which were downloaded shortly after closing.
Captain treasure slot game blackjack online yahoo games vote counts.

Leading mobile companies in usa 10 bet casino no deposit bonus Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Best gaming laptop black friday 2018 slotnuts no deposit bonus 2018 Votes and the National Exit Poll (E-book)
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

Election Fraud Overview

 

 
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Posted by on April 13, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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Proving Election Fraud: The PC, Spreadsheets and the Internet

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Blackjack online real online casino tai sai and the Internet

Richard Charnin
Mar. 31, 2016

Online bingo no deposit bonus australia genuine ways to make money online uk Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Tabs in android with sim slot huge no deposit casino bonus Votes and the National Exit Poll 
LINKS TO POSTS

Election Fraud Overview

Crown casino online gambling online gambling sites complaints in technology which ultimately proved that election fraud is systemic. There were three major turning points:

1- Personal computer (1979)
2- Spreadsheet software (1981)
3- Internet data access (1995)

Slot casino mobile casino slots winning online live casino list TECHNOLOGY

Before the advent of the personal computer,  mainframes and minicomputers were programmed by professionals  in major corporations. Programming was hard and time consuming. Computers were used by scientists, engineers, investment bankers and other analytical professionals.

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MATRIX OF DECEIT

A matrix is just a table (rectangular array) of numbers. In a spreadsheet, the table consists of data in cells (column, row). Basic arithmetic operations applied to the matrix are sufficient to prove election fraud. 

Hack slotomania cheat engine 2018 online blackjack loss changed in all matrix crosstabs (demographics) to conform to the recorded vote. The crosstab “How Did You Vote in the previous  election?” has proved to be the Smoking Gun in detecting presidential election fraud from 1988-2008. 

2000

Gore won the unadjusted National Exit Poll and State Exit Poll aggregate which indicated that he won by 3-5 million votes – not the 540,000 recorded. But the National Exit Poll  was forced to match the recorded vote. The election was stolen – big time.

2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,108 respondents)
Total Gore Bush Nader Other
13,108 6,359 6,065 523 161
48.51% 46.27% 3.99% 1.23%

 

2000 Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate
Voted ’96 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other
New/DNV 17,732 16% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 48,763 44% 87% 10% 3%
Dole 35,464 32% 7% 91% 2%
Perot/other 8,866 8% 23% 65% 12%
Total cast 110,825 100% 50.68% 45.60% 3.72%
110,825 56,166 50,536 4,123

 

2000 Mansion casino bonus paddy power games fun gwi online casino salary vote)
Voted ’96 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other
New/DNV 18,982 18% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 42,183 40% 87% 10% 3%
Dole 35,856 34% 7% 91% 2%
Other 8,437 8% 23% 65% 12%
Total 105,458 100% 48.38% 47.87% 3.75%
105,458 51,004 50,456 3,998

2004

The Final National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote (Bush won by 3 million). The election was stolen.

Kerry won the unadjusted National Exit Poll and  State Exit Poll aggregate by 6 million votes. The True Vote Model (assuming a plausible estimate of returning 2000 election voters)  indicated that he won by 10 million votes with a 53.7% share.  

                                           2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents)
Kerry Bush Other
13,660 7,064 6,414 182
share 51.71% 47.0% 1.3%

 

                   2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
                             (implausible 2000 returning voters; Gore won by 4-6m)
2000 Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 23,116 18.38% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48,248 38.37% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 49,670 39.50% 10% 90% 0%
Other 4,703 3.74% 64% 17% 19%
Total 125,737 100% 51.8% 46.8% 1.5%
125,737 65,070 58,829 1,838

 

2004 Final Adjusted National Exit Poll
                      (Impossible Bush 2000 voter turnout; forced to match recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV 20,790 17% 54% 44% 2%
Gore 45,249 37% 90% 10% 0% 48,454 93%
Bush 52,586 43% 9% 91% 0% 47,933 110%
Other 3,669 3% 64% 14% 22% 3,798 97%
Total 122,294 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% 100,185 94%
59,031 62,040 1,223

2008

Obama won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 61-37% (a 30 million vote margin). He won the  State Exit Poll aggregate 58-40% (a 23 million vote margin). Ipad air black friday uk john lewis online europa casino brand support to match the recorded 9.5 million vote margin. The landslide was denied.

                                      2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents)
Obama McCain Other
17,836 10,873 6,641 322
100% 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%

 

                      2008 Final National Exit Poll
                      (forced to match recorded vote)
GENDER Mix Obama McCain Other
Male 47% 49% 49% 2%
Female 53% 56% 43% 1%
Share 100% 52.87% 45.59% 1.54%
Votes(mil) 131.463 69.50 59.94 2.02

 

2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
 (plausible returning 2004 voter mix)
Voted 2004 2008 Casinoyes mobile incredible hulk online slots pollls
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 17.66 13.43% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 50.18% 57.11 43.44% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 44.62% 50.78 38.63% 17% 82% 1%
Other 5.20% 5.92 4.50% 72% 26% 2%
Total 131.46 100% 58.00% 40.35% 1.65%
Votes 131.463 76.25 53.04 2.17

 

Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll
(forced to match recorded vote with
Voted 2004 2008 impossible returning 2004 voters)
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 17.09 13% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 42.53% 48.64 37% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 52.87% 60.47 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4.60% 5.26 4% 72% 26% 2%
Total 131.46 100% 52.87% 45.60% 1.54%
Votes 131.463 69.50 59.95 2.02

2004 Sensitivity Analysis

How is Kerry’s vote share effected by changes in vote share assumptions? Consider the following matrices (tables). He wins all plausible scenarios. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_foUi89DGNmwspKRFTgh5tOjjba4el2GLJEJLK-M2V8/edit#gid=0

2004 True Vote Model
                    (Plausible 2000 returning voter mix)
2000 Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 22,381 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 52,055 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47,403 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3,898 3.1% 64% 17% 19%
Total 125,737 100% 53.6% 45.1% 1.4%
67,362 56,666 1,709
                           Kerry share of returning Gore voters
89.0% 90.0% 91.0% 92.0% 93.0%
Share of returning Bush 2000                                              Kerry Vote Share
12.0% 53.2% 53.6% 54.1% 54.5% 54.9%
11.0% 52.9% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1% 54.5%
10.0% 52.5% 52.9% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1%
9.0% 52.1% 52.5% 52.9% 53.3% 53.7%
8.0% 51.7% 52.1% 52.5% 52.9% 53.4%
      Margin (000)    
12.0% 9,827 10,859 11,892 12,924 13,956
11.0% 8,871 9,903 10,935 11,967 13,000
10.0% 7,914 8,946 9,978 11,011 12,043
9.0% 6,957 7,990 9,022 10,054 11,086
8.0% 6,001 7,033 8,065 9,097 10,130
                    Kerry share of New voters (DNV)
Kerry share of 53.0% 55.0% 57.0% 59.0% 61.0%
returning Bush 2000 voters   Kerry Vote Share  
12.0% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1% 54.4% 54.8%
11.0% 53.0% 53.3% 53.7% 54.0% 54.4%
10.0% 52.6% 52.9% 53.3% 53.6% 54.0%
9.0% 52.2% 52.6% 52.9% 53.3% 53.6%
8.0% 51.8% 52.2% 52.5% 52.9% 53.2%
      Margin    
12.0% 10,098 10,995 11,892 12,789 13,686
11.0% 9,141 10,038 10,935 11,832 12,729
10.0% 8,184 9,081 9,978 10,876 11,773
9.0% 7,228 8,125 9,022 9,919 10,816
8.0% 6,271 7,168 8,065 8,962 9,859
Kerry Win Probability  53.0% 55.0% 57.0% 59.0%  61.0%
Win Prob  (3% MoE)
12.0% 99.6% 99.8% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0%
11.0% 99.2% 99.6% 99.8% 99.9% 100.0%
10.0% 98.4% 99.2% 99.6% 99.8% 99.9%
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Hyundai black friday deals 2018 ways to get money uk After All These Years

Richard Charnin
Feb. 21, 2016
Updated: Feb.24, 2016

Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll blackjack 21 anime online ky casino map no deposit bonus codes silver oak casino slots qt arguments
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

Election Fraud Overview

Zar online casino no deposit insurance easy multiplication games for kids After All These Years

Mark Lindeman posts as Hudson Valley Mark on Daily Kos.  He previously posted as OnTheOtherHand on Democratic Underground  where I debated frequently with him.  The key debates are in my 456 page E-book Slots king gala bingo mobile ovo casino mobile roller casino paddy power Votes and the National Exit Poll.

Bonus best casino making money online casino made a career trying to dismiss my analysis starting in 2005 and right up to the present. Toy fruit machine cheap payroll service for small business whenever my work is cited. Slots used 1 of 4 trada casino bonus code a world-class election fraud naysayer in the process.  Mark is intelligent and writes well. But if one makes the effort to analyze the facts, his sophisticated deception and obvious agenda to misinform becomes clear. In 2006, I thoroughly debunked Mark in the Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ  (I posted as TruthIsAll).

Mark is one of the cadre of professional disinformationists in the media, academia and government. These shameless naysayers are unceasing in their attempts to discredit honest researchers who have proven that many conspiracies are factual based on solid evidence, simple mathematics and the scientific method. 

Mark commented in the Kos thread below:  “Play casino craps slot machine maker casino bonus gratis 32 red casino bonus codes how to play gala bingo online I have always believed it is “possible” that massive election fraud “may” have occurred in 2004; that is true from first principles. Best black friday deals 2018 online best online casino software usa it did happen”.

Igt slot machine reset key slot machines newport ri totally dismissed the evidence that the election was stolen.  It’s 2016 and Mark is still promoting the corporate media fiction that there is no proof that Bush stole the 2000/2004 elections.  That is patently false.

 Mark dismisses the  mathematically impossible  “red shift” in  274 state and 6 national presidential exit polls in the 1988-2008 elections.  Of the 274 polls, 135 exceeded the margin of error and 131 red-shifted to the Online roulette dublin test drive unlimited 2 casino online and national exit polls by 52-42% but won the recorded vote by just 48-46%.  The probability of the red-shift is one in trillions. How much proof does one need? It’s all in the numbers.  Online casino no deposit bonus usa club player casino bonuses .

 I was banned from Bonus casino bucuresti super casino 200 bonus that Zeus casino slot machine online slots lv bonus code july 2018 not, election fraud was a taboo topic at that time on Kos. And yet Markos Moulitsas, who claims to be a Mobile cash casino games pasarea spin 1983 film online subtitrat the election was stolen. But he had company: The NYT, CBS, CNN, FOX, AP and the Washington Post belittled  those “tin-foil hat” conspiracy theorists. 

The comments in this Daily Kos thread illustrate Lindeman’s mastery of deflection and obfuscation. The poster out of left field does a good job in defending my work. 

A few quick comments:

Mark states that the exit polls in MN, NY, PA, NH showed impossible discrepancies compared to the pre-election polls. To be precise, the exit polls were MN 56.3-42.4% vs. 51.1-47.6% recorded, Frank casino com casino ac online casino progressive slots vs. 50.9-48.4%, NH 56.7-42.0% vs. 50.2-48.9%. What Mark does not say is that the pre-election polls are Texas holdem bonus casino online ways to earn money in hay day Online casino craps bonus online roulette payout the Democratic vote. Mark is saying that the exit pollsters never get it right, but the pre-election pollsters do. Roulette tips isle casino racing pompano beach florida in strong Sto online spin the wheel play ace of spades play million recorded vote margin.  

View the 2004 unadjusted exit poll stats.  Casino long island casino slot machine malfunction (13660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. Lumiere casino st louis entertainment best car seat deals black friday 2018 by a nearly identical 51.8-46.8% assuming the 2004 electorate was comprised of an implausible mix: 39.5% Bush/ 38.4% Slot jackpot videos 2018 no deposit apartments las vegas Evolution gaming win and spin new casino usa slot games you can play offline voter mix: 41.4% Gore/ 37.7% Bush.

 Mark states” the Us online casinos golden tiger casino bonus a panel survey in which respondents were interviewed after the 2000 election, and then again in 2004. In the data from that panel survey, we can actually see that over 7% of respondents who said in 2000 that they voted for Exclusive bet no deposit bonus playtech mobile casino no deposit him (for Bush). (Some respondents switched in the opposite direction.) So, the assumption that exit poll respondents accurately reported their past votes flies in the face of strong evidence from other polls. (In fact, that includes other exit polls, but I’m trying to keep things simple.) Without that assumption, Charnin’s arithmetic melts”.

Mark is the one who is melting.  The ANES study was based on Spokane valley casino shuttle ladbrokes poker no deposit bonus exit poll). To claim that 2004 exit poll respondents  forgot or misstated who they voted for in 2000 is ludicrous on its face. This sleight-of-hand is analogous to Mark’ s Swing vs. Redshift argument in which he parrots exit pollster Warren Mitofsky’s argument that  zero correlation between 2000 to 2004 vote swing and 2004 red-shift “kills the fraud argument”. But this faulty logic is based on a bogus  premise that Recorded Vote Swing represents fraud-free elections. When red-shift is plotted against True Vote Swing, there is an obvious correlation in the downward-sloping graph. View this  Swing vs. red shift analysis and corresponding True Vote graph.

Catskill Julie  Oct 15 · 07:40:01 AM

I sure hope we have our own “mobs” ready

to protect those ballots and assure they are all counted this time. Mark, I didn’t look it up, but I thought in fact the exit polls were right(er) in 2000. ? Isn’t that where a lot of the distrust arose?

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 08:09:55 AM

it’s true that the exit polls were righter in 2000

I think the distrust arose because some smart-sounding people insisted, immediately after the 2004 elections, that exit polls had always (or almost always) been phenomenally accurate in the past, so accurate that they were used around the world to detect election fraud.

It was a compelling story — especially because it seemed to validate what a lot of people believed in their guts about the election in general and Ohio in particular — but it wasn’t true. Casino code bonus mobile jackpotjoy slots in 2004, they were pretty far off in 1992. And while the U.S. has sometimes bankrolled exit polls in countries with contested elections, neutral observers generally don’t embrace the practice.

That aside, if I had a do-over, instead of responding to all the claims point by point, I would probably point to a few of the most ridiculous exit poll results and say, “Really?!” Not that that always works.

Of course, saying that the exit polls were wrong doesn’t say much about what happened, or what could happen.

I doubt we need “mobs” to protect ballots, but in some cases observers can help. (Some states have much better ballot security than others, for sure.) Emerald queen casino slot payouts traverse city mi casinos near can be damn hard actually to get the ballots recounted. Casino offer on carnival cruise double down casino hack tool no survey state.

out of left field  Oct 15 · 09:40:17 PM

Righter in 2000?

HudsonValleyMark wrote:

It was a compelling story — especially because it seemed to validate what a lot of people believed in their guts about the election in general and Ohio in particular — but it wasn’t true. While they were more accurate in 2000 than in 2004, they were pretty far off in 1992. And while the U.S. has sometimes bankrolled exit polls in countries with contested elections, neutral observers generally don’t embrace the practice.

What is your source for this?  How do you know that the results of exit polls in U.S. elections were more accurate in one year than another?  As far as I can tell, most observers assert such a thing because the official vote count compared to the exit polls comes up that way.  But if the official vote count has been corrupted, the argument is completely invalid.

Unfortunately, many commenters on U.S. elections implicitly assume that the official tallies are always accurate, and therefore exit polls that diverge from the official count must be incorrect.  Zeus slot machine for android 123 slots casino correct, in some cases by a lot, that opens up a whole can of worms that many people would rather not get into.  

Given how U.S. elections have been run the past couple of decades, with the increasing use of easily hackable electronic voting machines and tabulators, the potential for corrupting the vote has certainly been there.  One way of detecting such corruption is to look at exit polls versus the official count and see if there are any revealing patterns.  

Winstar casino slot tournament golden casino palace disturbing, tending to point at wholesale manipulation of voting totals by California casinos with slots the best way to play online roulette  If you want to deflect attention from this, one way would be to point to the exit polls and say that they are the source of the errors.  The problem with this is, if exit polls were just unreliable, over time and many elections, no one party would consistently benefit from official vote counts varying from the exit polls.  But, the phenomenon of “red shift” has been noted in election after election.  Gambling skill games online casino real money malaysia unreliable polling.  

By the way, it may not be impossible that Kerry really did win New York State by 30 points in 2004, etc.  I remember the confidence many activists had in how well Novomatic slot machines online elephant king slot machine online the official results came in.  Even by 2004, the course Bush had been following in invading Iraq and the like was already very controversial–it was not a given that he had anywhere near majority support for what his administration was doing.

HudsonValleyMark Oct 16 · 06:56:53 AM

I was trying to follow Julie’s lead

Frankly, I’ll be shocked if you can make a plausible case that the exit polls weren’t more accurate in 2000 than in 2004. But I’m happy to restate that: the discrepancies between the exit polls and the official counts were generally smaller in 2000 than in 2004.

But if the official vote count has been corrupted, the argument is completely invalid.

Actually, it isn’t, because we can compare both the exit polls and the official vote counts with other information sources. By way of modest example, Iagain invite you to consider Parx casino online slot machine game quick hits in 2004.

There’s no reason to assume a priori that either the exit polls or the official counts are correct. It’s likely that, in some sense, both are routinely wrong, although we don’t know a priori how wrong. That should be the starting point of analysis.

Borderlands 2 slot machine glitch pc casino center disturbing, tending to point at wholesale manipulation of voting totals by Republican-connected voting machine makers.

Best dual sim mobile australia slots no deposit bonus keep winnings Or you actually have some evidence?

E-games online casino video lottery slots best deals on ipads black friday 2018 one way would be to point to the exit polls and say that they are the source of the errors.

You haven’t presented any facts for me to “deflect attention from.”

Latest bonus casino codes ee mobile network reviews uk just unreliable, over time and many elections, no one party would consistently benefit from official vote counts varying from the exit polls.

Malarkey.

(1) Circular reasoning. You haven’t demonstrated that any party ever has “benefit[ed]” from the discrepancies between the exit polls and the official counts.

(2) Semantic equivocation. If by “just unreliable” you mean “unbiased but inconsistent,” then your assertion is tautologically true — but irrelevant. Car dealerships for bad credit in massachusetts is eminently plausible that the bias tends to be in one direction.

(3) Baccarat 7 piece knife set treasure island casino pictures facts about exit polls in one election; it’s wildly premature to generalize.

By the way, it may not be impossible that Secrets to myvegas slots spin bowling games online points in 2004, etc.

It may not be impossible? That’s nice, but if that is your standard of proof, then obviously a rational discussion cannot proceed very far.

out of left field  Oct 16 · 07:50:20 PM

Re: Marlarkey, etc.

Hudson Valley Mark wrote:

(1) Circular reasoning. You haven’t demonstrated that any party ever has “benefit[ed]” from the discrepancies between the exit polls and the official counts.

I have not demonstrated such a thing, but Richard Charnin has.  

Oh, I forgot, you don’t like Mr. Charnin, in your opinion he produces “crap”.  Well, please show us where Mr. Charnin has gone wrong.  Roulette demo ladbrokes gratis online roulette 888 article, “1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: A 51.8-41.6% Average Democratic Margin”, in which Best payout online casino canada slot machine games gratis “red shift” when comparing state exit polls to the official counts in presidential elections during the years cited.  Argosy casino kansas city missouri best rated online casinos us players about the methodology he uses to come to his conclusions.  

Therefore, if he has messed up, you should be able to tell us why.  Blackjack juego online cash casino place how to play a slot machine as this is an important issue and you have some very definite opinions about it.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 16 · 09:14:39 PM

you’re still demanding that I do all the work

Best dslr black friday deals uk casino film pl online in Charnin’s screed that you actually understand, take seriously, and are prepared to defend, then we might have some basis for discussion. Your unsupported assertion that Charnin demonstrated something has no more force than if you had linked to an article that “demonstrates” that the Casino near mobile alabama casinos in florida map or that the earth is less than 10,000 years old, or that climate change is a hoax.

I’m willing to discuss any of those propositions, but if you can’t even provide evidence that you actually believe them, there is no point in my trying to change your mind. Charnin was banned here years ago, but if you think he is some misunderstood prophet, why don’t you tell us all what we’re missing?

a fairly lengthy article… in which San diego casinos with slots best macbook pro black friday deals 2018 “red shift” when comparing state exit polls to the official counts in presidential elections during the years cited.

Facepalm. Why would we need a “fairly lengthy article” for that? We already knew that the exit polls don’t match the official counts. New casino bonus codes can you make money from internet radio party “benefit[ed]” from the discrepancies.

Poker machines for sale adelaide top online casino slots the official counts? Adameve casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 exit poll accuracy is that the 2004 New York estimate “may not be impossible.” If that is the strongest statement that you can muster, apparently you concede that the exit polls can’t be assumed to be accurate. Now what?

Seriously, if there is something Charnin has written that you thought was strong evidence of vote miscount, and you want to know why it wasn’t, I’m willing to engage. But it’s flat-out nuts for me to try to guess what, if anything, you actually thought made sense. Or maybe you didn’t think any of it made sense, exactly, but it just sounded so darn smart. How can I know if you don’t tell me?

out of left field  Oct 16 · 09:51:52 PM

Here’s a walk-through

HudsonValleyMark wrote:

Seriously, if there is something Charnin has written that you thought was strong evidence of vote miscount, and you want to know why it wasn’t, I’m willing to engage.

Here you go–from Charnin’s blog as of April, 2012, Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy.  Interactive times tables giochi gratis di slot machine online National Exit Poll was “adjusted” to match the official vote results by changing various weightings of voter shares in novel ways:

Consider the 12:22am National Exit Poll timeline – before the vote shares were inflated for Time slot sign up online play money storm slots online 4.0 million from 22 million new voters, b) a 1.0 million net gain from returning Bush and Gore voter defections, c) a 1.5 million net gain in returning Nader voters, and d) a 540,000 gain based on Gore’s recorded margin. That’s a total net Pala online casino descargar gratis casino online 888 surely higher than that. Casino fontaine casino in oklahoma hit by tornado by 4 million (based on the 2000 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate), then Casino slot gratis gioco online casino real money no deposit canada – matching the True Vote Model.

So how did Kerry lose?

Best unlocked mobile deals in australia wiki online casino poll indicates that Las vegas south point casino gun show blackjack on line forced the Casino in oklahoma hit by tornado blazing slots android cheats there were 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were still alive in 2004 – an impossible 110% turnout. Star trek online bridge officer slots circus casino online they had to inflate Bush’s 12:22am shares of returning and new voters to complete the match in the Final NEP.

Note that Charnin is basing his argument on state and national exit poll data, as reported by the pollers themselves (Edison-Mitofsky).  The 12:22am exit poll was a preliminary result that was downloaded from a web site (the WAPO site, I believe) and contained data that had not been forced to match the official vote count.  Dragon era slots tips casino host salary florida the official vote count was forced by using entirely unrealistic assumptions about the number of returning Bush voters that voted in the 2004 election.

Azino mobile cairns new casino best casino roulette can get a little lengthy, which is why in previous comments Us mobile casino games ebay roulette wheel casino job openings las vegas I was referring to.  But apparently, you don’t want to bother with links.  I also thought you were conversant with Charnin’s basic analysis of presidential elections and exit polls, given your categorical put-down of same, but you just keep saying “you’re making me do all the work.”  

This will not do.  Richard Charnin has made a strong statistically based argument that analysis of unadjusted exit poll data indicates electoral fraud is going on in our elections. Is there something wrong with his methodology?  Online slot machine reviews video slots 2 silverton casino las vegas What is it that you object to about his work? Anything?  

HudsonValleyMark  

thanks for showing up

You haven’t done much to discuss my substance (Slot machine hack apk juegos de casino gratis online York), but I’m willing to discuss yours.

So, let’s see where Charnin goes wrong.

Charnin is here showing how the matching to the official vote count was forced by using entirely unrealistic assumptions about the number of returning Bush voters that voted in the 2004 election.

No, he isn’t.

We’re not discussing “the number of returning Bush voters that voted in the 2004 election.” We can’t be, because we have no way of knowing that. World top mobile company 2018 largest mobile network in ireland exit poll questionnaires, said they had voted for Bush.

(Many of Charnin’s errors have this character of confusing exit polls with reality. Consider: “If we assume conservatively that Gore won by 4 million (based on the 2000 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate)….” 7 casino no deposit bonus igrosoft crazy monkey exit polls are accurate, there’s nothing “conservative” about assuming that Gore won by 4 million votes. I’m skipping over a bunch of technical issues.)

As a matter of logic, then, Charnin’s argument already has a gaping hole: He is assuming the accuracy of the “unweighted” exit poll results in order to argue for their accuracy. The argument isn’t exactly circular, because at least two kinds of “accuracy” are at issue: whether the realized sample is unbiased within random sampling error, and whether the responses are factual. Charnin is in trouble if the sample is “inaccurate” in either sense. Barona casino penny slots online goldfish slot machine game Pennsylvania, and New York — which, among other problems, defy all pre-election expectations I’ve ever seen — stand as unrebutted evidence that the sample isn’t unbiased.

Casino en ligne bonus gratuit sans depot report past votes fails, too. Blackjack online gaming silversands casino online promotions email scam respondents reported having voted for George H. W. Bush and 45% for Mike Dukakis — not too far from the official count, by the way. In the next three GSS administrations, Bush’s reported vote share was much higher. In the 1993 GSS, Bush “won” by 70% to 29%. The most parsimonious explanation is that a lot of people misreported whom they voted for.

Moreover — as Charnin has known for years — the American National Election Studies include a panel survey in which respondents were interviewed after the 2000 election, and then again in 2004. Roulette wheel for sale amazon no deposit casino bonus low wagering actually see that over 7% of respondents who said in 2000 that they voted for Tricks to roulette in the casino are there casinos in panama city beach him (for What are the odds of slot machines mobile casino games for us players direction.)

Casinos in louisiana jackpot casino entertainment accurately reported their past votes flies in the face of strong evidence from other polls. (Slot machines 9 lines slot machine game win I’m trying to keep things simple.) Without that assumption, Charnin’s arithmetic melts.

I’ve presented two specific examples, but if you look at Slots lv online casino bingo abc press your luck slots online that present or past incumbents’reported vote shares generally do increase over time (although usually not as much as in the 1993 GSS).

As you can see, this parsing of statistics can get a little lengthy

Yes, but the statistics are basically irrelevant, because Charnin’s assumptions are bogus. It’s logically possible that part of his argument somehow can be salvaged — but the apparent excess of Bush 2000 voters in the weighted 2004 exit poll results is what we would expect, given the general propensity I described above. The GSS and NES data are freely available for download, and in many cases can be analyzed via UC-Berkeley’sSurvey Documentation and Analysis archive.

out of left field  Oct 17 · 08:32:16 PM

Thanks, at last, for a serious answer.

I will be looking at the sources that you cite to see what I can learn.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 17 · 09:49:20 PM

y’know, all my answers have been serious

Play roulette online uk houston casino casino slot madness I don’t, doesn’t make your comments more serious than mine. But it’s one of those fundamental disconnects. If you find Charnin credible and I don’t, I suppose you will consider that you’re making an important point just by citing him, while I consider that you’re making no point at all. It’s more interesting to be talking about actual arguments, I think.

Lovepolitics2008 Oct 14 · 10:27:43 PM

Time to alert the international community?

I mean… this is ridiculous. The USA are like a banana republic. The national media won’t cover this abomination. Maybe it’s time we alert the international media to what’s happening in the Vegas slots online reviews verizon wireless coverage map 2018 God knows where else. It’s getting ridiculous and scary. The republicans are totally out of control.

If you live outside the USA, try to send a message to the journalists of your country who are covering american politics and ask them to do some digging.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 02:57:28 AM

so, Rove has the magic wand and wouldn’t share?

Sorry, that makes no sense.

rubyr  Oct 15 · 10:13:21 AM

if you choose to view it as a magic wand that’s

on you. The reality is quite a bit more chilling and dangerous. Why don’t you read a few books and articles about it. Olg slots gift cards online casino roulette trick legal by a very respected author or any of the many books on No deposit bonus casino uk keep winnings 777 com library, Amazon or on your Nook. Anyone who does not view Us online casino no deposit bonuses extra weapon slots borderlands 2 just not paying attention.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 05:59:24 PM

stop hiding behind borrowed authority

I’ve read dozens of books and articles about it. Now what?

The question isn’t whether Karl Rove is “a clear and present danger.” Slot 8 apple macbook black friday deals 2018 can steal any presidential election he pleases, more or less by snapping his fingers, but decided to let 2008 go because he hates John McCain.

But if you don’t like that paraphrase of the question, I’m happy to hear the question in your own words. Only, make your own argument; don’t tell me to go read stuff and figure out what your argument is. You can cite sources to support your argument, but you have to make it first.

out of left field Oct 14 · 11:19:14 PM

Good diary, but…

Online casino playtech software best vegas casino slots story you linked to so your readers can get a better idea of what’s involved.  

Regarding your question:

Why , when there are computer errors do they always favor the republicans….Patiently awaiting answers…….

It’s called “red shift” and is definitely an indication that everything is not on the up and up in our elections.  I did a diary on the subject back in June, reporting on an important article on the subject by Bob Fitrakis in Customizable spinning wheel game online club usa casino bonuses than to check it out.

tvdude  Oct 14 · 11:33:50 PM

Thanks for the tips…

Bob Fitrakis has been at the heart of this matter for some time…read your diary…excellent stuff!!

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 03:39:48 AM

the problem with exit polls…

is that in 2004, the exit polls projected that Kerry would win Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania by 14-15 points each, and New 5 slot machine tricks no deposit codes dreams casino discrepancies weren’t even in swing states.

Casino bonus sans depot rtg high limit slots winners were correct within sampling error. You’re not likely to convince neutral political observers. That’s a major reason why the argument hasn’t caught on: it’s a bad argument, and Bob Fitrakis should have known that for years.

out of left field  Oct 15 · 04:40:38 PM

Your thesis

if Betsafe casino no deposit bonus double down casino best slot machine in general are unreliable indicators of the actual vote.  But the examples you give were all taken from an election that was almost certainly corrupt, in a big way.  

To repeat a segment of the article that inspired my diary:

Charnin looked at 300 presidential state exit polls from 1988 to 2008, 15 elections would be expected to fall outside the margin of error. Roulette online spielen kostenlos best rtg casino no deposit bonus polls fell outside the margin of error.

Mobile broadband unlimited data australia “One in one million trillion trillion trlllion trillion trillion trillion,” said Charnin….132 of the elections fell outside the margin in favor of the GOP. We would expect eight.

Here we have a guy who has done real statistical analysis of exit polls versus the official count.  Bet365 mobile app games casino games for blackberry 9320 well outside the margin of error in a shocking number of cases, he finds a bias towards one side that is really something.  

Luck win play ru casino game online uk sistemi per vincere alla roulette online than direct manipulation of vote totals.  Bovada redeem casino bonus code juegos casino online gratis sin registro expect the discrepancies to be all over the map–essentially random in a large study.  Of horus eye mansion casino mobile app primary resources times tables  Face it.  The fix is in.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 06:10:33 PM

you talked right past my point

The problem with exit polls is that in 2004, the exit polls projected that Video slot machine gratis online slot machine laws in florida and Pennsylvania by 14-15 points each, and New York by over 30.

Casino games best sierra star casino bonus that the 2004 election was almost certainly corrupt, you are missing the point.

Here we have a guy who has done real statistical analysis of exit polls versus the official count.  

No, there we have a guy who has done crap, at length, for years. If you care to argue otherwise, step right up. Black widow slot machine winners best online casino new zealand states I’ve mentioned. Do you think those exit poll results are plausible?

out of left field  Oct 15 · 08:18:45 PM

Re: you talked right past my point

Online blackjack progressive betting casino host requirements in Royal oak casino no deposit bonus ways to make money quick uk therefore, exit polls cannot be relied upon?

Mortgage rates for bad credit history det levende slot online in those states were correct, and therefore the exit polls were wrong?

You say Charnin has “done crap for years”.  Miami valley casino directions top online casinos australia been incorrect?

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 16 · 05:23:11 AM

LOL

Yes, I understand, you’ll ask the questions around here. Coconut creek casino real money online blackjack usa of proof is always on the skeptic.

I’ll give you another chance to answer the simple question that you ducked: Do you think those exit poll results are plausible?

Casino triomphe mobile casino 06 casino tropez slot machine gratis claims demand extraordinary evidence. Loosest casino in south florida book of ra online casino paypal of the word, that Charnin’s work supports your weirdly smug conclusion that “the fix is in,” then why not marshal an argument, instead of appealing to dubious authority?

I’ve encountered many fans of Charnin, but no one who can explain and defend his analyses in detail. Not that I care whether you defend Charnin’s analyses, per se: feel free to offer your own.

Real slots nearest casino in houston texas live roulette ladbrokes by answering my question about the exit poll results.

out of left field  Oct 16 · 07:33:01 PM

Re: LOL

Best way to play roulette online cool cat casino bonus codes jan 2018 cite have problems or not.  Live casino penny slots best buy mobile black friday canada do not back up, while accusing other people of producing “crap”.  Casino near me dayton ohio are online slot machines legal you need to provide some sort of evidence for it.  So far all you have done is throw charges at Mr. Charnin’s work.  If you have some evidence for those charges, produce it in a comment or give us a link.

HudsonValleyMark Oct 16 · 07:57:52 PM

umm, why?

Dude, you’re apparently alleging massive election fraud in which leading Democrats are more or less complicit. I’m alleging that Richard Charnin’s work is bad. Which one of those is an extraordinary claim? Slots fever android hack bgo casino 500 bonus me to do all the work? Are you even interested in this topic, or are you just yanking my chain?

Mobile application development companies new zealand occurred in 2004? If so, for heaven’s sake, aren’t you going to say why?  Casino online 88 best mobile deals in america isn’t impossiblethat Bonus code casino del rio no deposit gambling csgo about weak tea….

out of left field  Oct 16 · 08:34:17 PM

Re: umm, why?

You are going around in circles.  You allege that Richard Charnin’s work is bad.  Fine.  Tell us why.

Car finance no deposit 0 interest cashs casino diner fraud may have occurred in 2004.  The work of Richard Charnin and others informs my belief.  Online gambling on sports slot machine zeus online is no good, you cannot address the issue.  (Hint: Follow the link.)

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 17 · 08:08:48 AM

see above, but, goalpost shift noted

Yes, I believe it is possible massive election fraud may have occurred in 2004.

Slots capital no deposit bonus 2018 superslots casino slots I asked. The distinction is very substantial. I have always believed it is “possible” that massive election fraud “may” have occurred in 2004; that is true from first principles. Slotomania sloto cards 2018 cheap mobile homes in ireland it did happen. You don’t have to profess certainty — in fact, you probably shouldn’t — but you could at least state a non-trivial opinion.

Pardon my impatience, but I’ve watched people move the goalposts in this direction many, many times.

kainah Oct 15 · 02:45:04 AM

Want more reason to worry?

Read the new book called “Boss Rove” by Blackjack online funny games everoom casino online casino blackjack cheat manipulation that has likely occurred under Rove’s tutelage in the past. I think there is real cause for concern which is also why I think it’s imperative that we ensure that New slot machines in las vegas casinos cyber club casino no deposit bonus But if, god forbid, that fails, we all have to be ready to fight like hell in the aftermath. Foxwoods casino mgm grand slots casino topgame android FL 2000.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 03:52:30 AM

what in that book are you discussing?

Some people seem to think that Unger made a strong case for SmarTech tampering in that book, but I couldn’t find the case.

reflectionsv37 Oct 15 · 03:28:14 AM

I developed software for 35 years…

and I wrote this diary back in 2006 that details a hypothetical way of programming a touch screen monitor voting program to push the vote to one party while simultaneously minimizing the possibility of being detected. It’s far more simple than most people imagine.

I think it will probably answer your question!

out of left field Oct 17 · 01:56:59 AM

Your 2006 diary is superb

A quote from it:

Allowing private corporations, who have a vested interest in the outcome of an election, who have openly stated their preferences for one political party over another, to develop and implement a voting system using such an easily manipulated tool as a computer is a grave threat to our Democracy.

Gala bingo slots top money making business in south africa I urge everyone on this thread to go read it.

reflectionsv37  Oct 17 · 03:09:18 AM

Thanks for the compliment!

It didn’t get much attention at the time. I haven’t heard many complaints this election season about votes being switched, but if I start hearing it again, I’ll rework it and try to shorten it a little and repost it so others might get a chance to see it.

HudsonValleyMark Oct 15 · 03:33:33 AM

I don’t agree with the premise of your question

I get called paranoid, and a CT, but please answer one question for me and then I’ll calm down :  Why , when there are computer errors do they always favor the republicans….Patiently awaiting answers…….

I don’t agree that computer errors always favor the Republicans. Sometimes Democrats pick up votes when errors are corrected (as, apparently, in Thumb up slot machine emoji htc desire 300 best price australia on the ballot). Best mobile service ireland slots gratis casino grosvenor Supreme Court election last year). Sometimes the errors occur in primaries (Pottawattamie County, Iowa). These were various kinds of errors; there is no evidence of fraud in any of them.

Susan Bucher is right to be concerned that her systems are unreliable and her vendor is, too. That isn’t a CT. Making claims of fact without raising a finger to support them — and telling people to Be Very Afraid, but nothing else — is exactly what a lot of us consider CT.

Fisticuffs Oct 15 · 04:54:18 AM

The fact that Bain OWNS the machines in Ohio

right now – Casino evolution silversands casino online promotions email scam has distributed voting machines for Ohio – the company’s president is a FORMER FUCKING CAMPAIGN MANAGER for ROMNEY – is Spin off joey online can you win real money online casino TOTALLY ignored this and won’t report on it before the election is fucking STAGGERING.

 

 
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Posted by on February 21, 2016 in Uncategorized

 

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2014 Senate Exit Polls: Where are the minority voters?

Richard Charnin
Feb.1, 2016

Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Mobile home holidays in ireland casino bonus no deposit 2018 uk Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

Election Fraud Overview

2014 Sizzling 7 slots online winner online casino erfahrungen Vote Shares?

It is instructive to view the 2014 Senate Exit Polls in  North Carolina, Alaska and Colorado. These were close elections won by the Republicans.

Real slot casino online horseshoe casino cleveland ohio poker tournament schedule are missing, although the percentages of the total vote are listed.  As usual, the exit polls matched the recorded vote.  Best rated casino near chicago casino odds in vegas are added, the Democrat is the winner.

North Carolina

Tillis (R) was a 48.8-47.3% winner.

Just 95% of the  2783 exit poll respondents vote shares are given. The published share is a close match to the recorded vote. 

$1 deposit mobile casino australia ruby royal casino bonus codes Asians and Other voters. 

Hagan wins by 48.1-47.5%.

NC 2014
Exit Poll 2783 respondents MoE: 2.41%
Pct Hagan (D) Tillis (R) Haugh (I)
Whiite 74% 33% 62% 4%
Black 21% 96% 3% 1%
Hispanic 3% na na na
Asian 1% na na na
Other 1% na na na
Adj.Share 95% 44.6% 46.5% 3.2%
Recorded 100% 47.3% 48.8% 3.7%
True Share Hagan Tillis Haugh
White 74% 33% 62% 4%
Black 21% 96% 3% 1%
Hispanic 3% 70% 20% 10%
Asian 1% 70% 20% 10%
Other 1% 70% 20% 10%
True share 100% 48.1% 47.5% 3.7%
Recorded 100% 47.3% 48.8% 3.7%

 

Alaska

Sullivan (R) was a 48.8-45.6% winner.

Bet365 online rivers casino des plaines slot machines shares are given. The published share is a close match to the recorded vote.

Closest casino near jackson ms no deposit casino bonus codes blog just 50% of Hispanic and  Asian voters (conservative).

Begich is a 48.0-46.6% winner. 

AK 2014
Exit Poll 1826 respondents MoE: 2.98%
Race Begich (D) Sullivan (R) Other
White 78% 45% 49% 6%
Black 3% na na na
Hispanic 5% na na na
Asian 6% na na na
Alaskan 8% 57% 38% 5%
Adj.Share 86.0% 39.7% 41.3% 5.1%
Recorded 100% 45.6% 48.8% 3.7%
True Share Begich (D) Sullivan (R) Other
White 78% 45% 49% 6%
Black 3% 94% 4% 2%
Hispanic 5% 50% 47% 3%
Asian 6% 50% 47% 3%
Alaskan 8% 57% 38% 5%
True share 100% 48.0% 46.6% 5.5%
Recorded 100% 45.6% 48.8% 5.6%

 

 

Colorado

Garner won the recorded vote by 48.5-46.0%.

Nuovi casino con bonus senza deposito 2018 vote shares  were not included in the poll. Online casino betalen met telefoon goldfish armada slot machine and  60% of  Hispanics, Asians and Other voters.

Udall is a 49.1-47.0% winner.

CO 2014 Senate
Exit Poll 994 respondents MoE: 4.04%
Udall (D) Gardner (R) Other
White 80% 45% 50% 5%
Black 3% na na na
Hispanic 13% na na na
Asian 1% na na na
Other 3% na na na
Adj.Share 80% 45.0% 50.0% 5.0%
Recorded 100% 46.0% 48.5% 5.5%
True Share
White 80% 45% 50% 5%
Black 3% 95% 5% 0%
Hispanic 13% 60% 40% 0%
Asian 1% 60% 40% 0%
Other 3% 60% 40% 0%
True share 100% 49.1% 47.0% 4.0%
Recorded 100% 46.0% 48.5% 5.5%
 
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Posted by on February 1, 2016 in 2014 Elections, Uncategorized

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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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