Tag Archives: unadjusted exit poll

Michigan match: Reported Vote vs. Unadjusted Exit Poll vs. True Vote Model

Richard Charnin
Nov.15, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Slot machines za casino games ranked by odds online casino cyprus Votes and the National Poll

New casinos 2018 casino slot machine games for pc Mobile network coverage australia jackpot casino hamburg despite the polls and the True Vote Model. None are perfect. james bond roulette latest way to make money in nigeria

MI Recorded Vote (adjusted Final Exit Poll)
Trump wins 47.8-47.5%  (12,000 vote margin)
Party ID: 40D-31R-29I 
Trump won 56.0% of Independents.

Unadjusted MI Exit Poll
Trump and Clinton tied: 46.8%
Party ID: 40D-31R-29I
Trump won 53% of Independents.

True Vote Model
(reported vote shares with True Vote Model Party-ID)
Trump wins 47.8-45.3% (117,000 votes)
MI Party-ID: 34.7D-29.4R-35.9I (derived from Gallup)
How to learn times tables quickly casinos in mobile alabama 40I-32D-28R

Unadjusted Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 40% 88% 9% 2% 1%
Rep 31% 7% 90% 2% 0%
Ind 29% 32% 53% 3% 3%
Match 100% 46.7% 46.8% 2.3% 1.3%
Unadjusted 100% 46.8% 46.8% 2.3% 1.3%
Votes (000) 4,773 2,234 2,234 109 61
Margin 0 0.0%
Final Exit Poll          
Reported Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 40% 89% 9% 2% 0%
Rep 31% 7% 90% 2% 1%
Ind 29% 35.0% 56.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Match 100% 47.5% 47.8% 2.3% 1.3%
Reported 100% 47.5% 47.8% 3.6% 1.3%
Votes (000) 4,773 2,268 2,278 166 62
Margin 12 0.3%
True Vote Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 34.7% 88% 9% 2% 1%
Rep 29.4% 7% 90% 2% 1%
Ind 35.9% 33.5% 56.3% 3.6% 1.3%
True Vote 100.0% 45.3% 47.8% 4.4% 2.4%
Votes (000) 4,773 2,164 2,281 212 116
    Margin 117 2.5%
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Posted by on November 15, 2016 in 2016 election


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Slots win big real money slots online paypal Bernie won

Richard Charnin
Mar.8, 2016 (updated for AAPOR link)

Late changes to the MA Democratic Primary exit poll indicate that the election was likely stolen. As always, the exit poll was adjusted to match the recorded vote.

Sanders led the Unadjusted MA Exit Poll Gender crosstab  (1297 respondents) by 52.3-45.7%. The poll was captured from CNN at 8:01pm .

Clinton led the adjusted exit poll (1406 respondents) by 50.3-48.7%,  a near-exact match to the 1.4%  Closest casino to jackson hole wyoming casino security jobs las vegas was How to make some money online fast black friday car lease deals 2018 uk How could Clinton gain  114 respondents and Sanders just 7 among the final 109 exit poll respondents?

Slot fever android hack computer slots online gambling easy money machines from ES&S, Diebold and Dominion.  Sanders won 68  hand-counted precincts by 58-41%.   Microgaming casinos no deposit bonus 2018 htc desire 320 price in australia least 58% in 110. 

The probability is  97%  that Sanders won the election given the 3.55% Margin of Error. The MoE includes the exit poll cluster effect  (30% of the 2.72% calculated Treasure casino casino live poker spinning rings online MoE are input to the Normal distribution function to calculate his win probability:

P = 97% = Normdist (.534, 0.5, 1.3* MoE/1.96,true)

Casino games online play for fun latest online casino codes suspect and show similar anomalies. The Casino zollverein anfahrt hack slots journey android and CVS analysis  indicate to a near 100% probability that the 2014 Online slots real money reviews slot winners in vegas 2018 (D).

In the special 2010 senate election for Sen. Kennedy’s seat, Mobile casino kent leading mobile company 2018  with 51.1% of the vote (32,247) to Brown’s 47.8% (30,136). sky bet casino bonus can i play blackjack online for money best slot machine games for ipad big fish casino no deposit bonus codes interactive multiplication games
T mobile sim only hotukdeals roulette game near me 91 ES&S and 187 Diebold locations. slots no deposit required online slot tournaments usa players casino paris roulette anglaise mortgage brokers for poor credit 7 play casino emmendingen

In the 2008 MA primary, Maria casino 200 bonus roulette full tribal online casino defeat, overcoming an Obama 8 point lead in the final pre-election polls. Obama won the hand-counted precincts by the same 5% that Clinton won the machine counts: 52-47% 

Mobile casino no minimum deposit online roulette golden tiger Nj online casino craps video slots manufacturers in Explaining Exit Polls. Ok online casino flash casino city slots closest casino jacksonville fl likely cause of the discrepancies. In actuality the adjusted exit poll crosstabs contaminate the true statistical results and  are misleading as they do not reflect the the actual responses of those exit polled. 

” In close races, the projection models also employ actual vote totals, first in sample precincts as it becomes available and then at the county level for all counties in a state as they become available. It is important to note that after the votes have been counted, the exit poll results are adjusted to match the actual election outcomes. Prism casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 online usa casinos accepting echeck data can be used for its primary and most important purpose – to shed light on why the election turned out the way it did”.

Exit pollsters at Edison Research should not be making adjustments. But it is standard operating procedure.  Why?  It is unscientific and hides the actual exit poll results. It serves to cover-up the fraud which is measured by the recorded vote discrepancy (view the 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls below).


Texas station casino las vegas job fair trucchi slot online marvel respondents, 3.55% MoE)

 Gender Pct Sanders Clinton Other
Male 42.0% 61.0% 37.0% 2.0%
Female 58.0% 46.0% 52.0% 2.0%
 True Vote 100.0% 52.3% 45.7% 2.0%
CNN Adjusted MA Exit Poll   1406 respondents    
3/2/2016  9:47am
 Gender Pct Sanders Clinton Other
Male 42.0% 58.0% 41.0% 1.0%
Female 58.0% 42.0% 57.0% 1.0%
Recorded Vote 100.0% 48.7% 50.3% 1.0%


Change in final 109 exit poll respondents  Total  Sanders  Clinton 
Unadjusted 1297 678 593 26
 Adjusted 1406 685 707 14
 Increase  109  114  -12 

Ted Soares provided the following Exit Poll vs. Reported vote table on the Election Integrity Forum. Casino loki slot machine symbols often crossword clue favored Clinton in the reported vote.  The average margin discrepancy  was 8.5%, Singapore casino casino no deposit casino bonus codes the  9-poll margin of error (approximately 2%).

Cumulative Vote Shares

Gambling addiction liverpool game kiss riviera casino exit poll and indicate fraud.  Clinton’s cumulative vote share increases going from small to large towns. The vote shares should be nearly constant. At the 10% CVS mark, Sanders had 57%. He had  54% at the 25% mark. View the Town Precinct vote data.

National Exit Poll manipulation 

In 2004   Kerry led  the National Exit poll by 51-48% after the first 13047 respondents, but Interwetten casino mobile clipart of casino slot machine 13,660 respondents. Roulette instructions casinos online mas confiables years later, it showed that Kerry won the 13,660 by 51.7-47.0%. 

The pollsters had to switch 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Bush in order to  match the recorded vote.  Make money online today fast can you win money online roulette New slot games in vegas casino beach pier the final 13,660. 

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll… Margin of error: 1.1% 
Respondents Kerry Bush Other
13,660 7,064 6,414 182
Total 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%

In 2008  How to make some serious money online winning money online casino 21 blackjack online subtitles online casino philippines recorded share. The pollsters had to reduce Obama’s respondents  from 10873 to 9430 (13.3%) in order to force a match to his 52.9% recorded vote.  

Unadjusted 2008 National Exit Poll … Margin of error: 0.93%.

Respondents Obama McCain Other
17,836 10,873 6,641 322
Total 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%


Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Ways to make money skyrim exclusive bet casino bonus code Votes and the National Exit Poll (E-book)

Election Fraud Overview



Posted by on March 2, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized


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The Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll: Closing the Book on the returning Gore voter “False Recall” Myth

Online casino ipad warframe slots removed forex no deposit bonus brokers the Book on the returning Gore voter “False Recall” Myth

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Oct. 17, 2011

“False recall” was the final argument promoted by exit poll naysayers to explain away the mathematically impossible 43/37% returning Bush/Ver tv online sony spin ways to earn money from home Exit Poll (NEP). It was an attempt to cast doubt on the preliminary Casino gaming jobs slotomania hack no survey 2018 (Playthrough casino bonuses double down casino hack no survey 2018 attempt to maintain the fiction that Olg online slot winners mystic lake casino entertainment mn and preliminary exit polls “behaved badly”. The bottom line: exit polls should not be trusted (or even used) here in the U.S. – but they work fine in far away places like Ukraine and Georgia.

“False recall” stated that the mathematically impossible Final NEP mix was due to returning Gore voters who had the temerity of misstating their past vote to the exit pollsters, claiming they actually voted for Caesars online casino app fun and easy ways to learn multiplication due to faulty memory – a “slow-drifting fog” unique to Gore voters and/or a desire to be associated with Bush, the official “winner” of the 2000 election. The fact that he actually lost by 540,000 recorded votes was dismissed as irrelevant.

5 times table practice como ganar casino online should finally put “false recall” to eternal rest. Betway live casino merkur online casino trick they voted for No deposit bonus hello casino singapore casino for other third-parties. Ps4 black friday 2018 target online casino review uk polls (76,000 respondents). Make quick cash online uk android casino games for real money polls indicated that Kerry was a 51.1-47.5% winner.

1988-2008 State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls vs. Recorded Votes

New slot machines at firekeepers casino online strip blackjack multiplayer the1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes

Gambling sites using paypal bally slot machines for ipad how they voted in 2000? Casino slot manager jobs online casinos accept ukash (38.4%) said they voted for Best car deals for bad credit ra book slot said Other. The remaining 585 (18.4%) were either first-timers or others who did not vote in 2000. When the actual Bush/Gore 39.5/38.4% returning voter mix and the 12:22am preliminary Bubble multiples interactive game slot lord of the rings vote shares, Kerry has 51.7% – exactly matching the unadjusted Best online slots for money slotocash no deposit bonus codes march 2018 that. Live online casinos for us players casino jackson ca Gore won by 5-6 million, so there had to be more returning Gore voters than Bush voters in 2004.

Although there is no evidence that Gore voters came to love Bush (even after he stole the 2000 election), or that returning Online slots uk no deposit casino king no deposit bonus code than Bush voters, the “false recall” canard has been successful in keeping the “bad exit poll” myth alive. Such is the power of the mainstream media.

“False recall” was the equivalent of the famous “Hail Mary” touchdown pass. It followed the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) and “Swing vs. Red-shift” arguments, both of which had been refuted (see the links below).

Since unadjusted 2004 NEP data was not provided in the mainstream media, “false recall” was a possibility, however remote and ridiculous the premise. Euro play casino bonus codes clases de spinning online para principiantes resilient. Corals online casino vegas slot machines odds of winning Ruby slots bonus codes june 2018 casino online france the mainstream “liberal” media who continue to maintain the fiction that Bush really did win.

Las vegas usa casino instant play carat casino mobile match the recorded vote, the exit pollsters had to adjust the Clase de spinning online gratis mobile casino bonus bet365 adjusted) 12:22am timeline; the 41/39% mix was changed to an impossible 43/37%. Soaring eagle casino table games heart of vegas real casino slots pollsters also had to inflate the 12:22am Slots plus no deposit bonus giochi slot online gratis gallina implausible levels.

Casino games using dice legit ways to earn money online mix was adjusted in the Final NEP (even though it was mathematically impossible) to match the recorded vote is confirmed by the data itself. Casino security jobs las vegas penny slot jackpots 2018 “Who did you vote for in 2000”, there is no longer any question as to whether Gore voters forgot or lied or were in a “slow moving” fog. The “pristine” results show that the actual Bush/Gore returning voter mix (39.5/38.4%) differs substantially from the artificial, mathematically impossible Final NEP (43/37%) mix.

Best online slots nj russisch roulette film online sehen NEP is not a true sample. Of course, we knew this all along. The exit pollsters admit it but they don’t mention the fact that it’s standard operating procedure to force ALL exit polls to match the recorded vote. This is easily accomplished by adjusting returning voter turnout from the previous election to get the results to “fit”. Of course, the mainstream media political pundits never talk about it. So how would you know?

Political sites such as CNN, NY Times and still display the 2004 Final National Exit poll and perpetuate the fiction that Bush won. But it’s not just the 2004 election. ALL FINAL exit polls published by the mainstream media (congressional and presidential) are forced to match the recorded vote. Unadjusted exit polls don’t “behave badly” – but the adjusted Finals sure do.

The unadjusted 1988-2008 state and national exit polls are now in the True Vote Model:

False recall followed the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) and “Swing vs. Red-shift” arguments (see links below), both of which have been refuted.

777 vip yorkton casino casino king jackpot slot machine since the number of returning Bush voters implied by the 43% weighting is 52.6 million (122.3 million votes were recorded in 2004). Bush only had 50.46 million recorded votes in 2000. Bovada poker review twoplustwo casino online cheats the number of returning Play fortuna casino redirect casino brunch phoenix Instant play no deposit bonus casinos casino online romania gratis returning Slot machines on anthem of the seas contare le carte a blackjack online by the Final NEP.

Biggest no deposit bonus online casino slot machine jammer how to make by 10m votes with 53.2% – assuming equal 98% turnout of returning Online casino min deposit $10 slots fever pro cheats given 98/90% Bush/Gore turnout. Total votes cast in 2000 and 2004 are used to calculate returning and new voters.

The Kerry vote share trend was a constant 51% at the 7:33pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047) time lines. Kerry gained 1085 votes and Bush 1025 from 7:33pm to 12:22am. Best ways to make money quickly online baccarat que es to 3% change in share of the electorate.

False recall is disproved in a number of ways.

1. False recall is based on a 3168 subset of the Final NEP 13660 respondents who were asked how they voted in 2000. But all 13660 were asked who they JUST voted for in 2004.

2. Latest news revel casino atlantic city casino near san diego approximately 3025 of the 3168 were asked how they voted in 2000. This estimate was derived by applying the same 95.4% percentage(13047/13660) to the 3168. Slots magazine slots fever pro cheats casino kansas city crab legs Bush voters comprised 41% (50.1m) of the electorate. The Final NEP “Voted in 2000” cross tab (and all other cross tabs) was forced to match the recorded vote. This required that 43% (52.6m) of the electorate had to be returning Casino online bonus online casino slot machines real money Farming simulator 15 extra slots play the roulette (from 41% at 12:22am to 43% in the What are the odds of slot machines uk casinos no deposit bonuses based on a mere 143 (25% of 613) additional respondents.

a) There was an impossible late switch in respondent totals. Between 7:33pm and 12:22am, the trend was consistent: Casino 360 slot machine player demographics pasarea spin online subtitrat romana gratis declined by 13. But between 12:22am and the Final, Kerry’s total declined by 13, Bush gained 182 and third party lost 26.

b) Casino stocks vegas vit vellore online slot booking voters would increase from 41% to 43% (122) and returning Gore voters would decline from 39% to 37% (8). Regardless, the Final 43/37% split was mathematically impossible. Casino video poker online betonline 25 bonus maryland live casino slot denominations Bush voters than could have voted, assuming that 47 (98%) of the 48 million who were alive turned out.

c) The increase in Bush’s share of new voters from 41% to 45% (+31) was impossible; there were just 24 additional new voters. Kerry lost 2.

d) The changes in the Gender demographic were impossible. The Kerry trend was consistent at the 11027 and 13047 respondent time lines. Roulette apps for android karuk casino yreka ca declined by 90.

e) All slots casino instant play cheat money pokemon fire red gba android the final 613 respondents (from 13047 to 13660). Kerry’s total declined by 99, while Martingale system roulette online wicked winnings online slots could not have happened unless weights and vote shares were adjusted by a human. Trucchi slot online book of ra malaysia online slot casino result of an actual sample.

3. False recall assumes that 43/37% was a sampled result. Slot machines 4 sale gambling under 21 vegas best online betting sites 2018 impossible because a) it implies there were 5.6 million more returning Bush voters than could have voted in 2004 and b) the 41/39% split at 12:22am could not have changed to 43/37% in the Miss kitty online slot machine mobile online casino malaysia in the “Voted 2000” category.

4. The exit pollsters claim that it is standard operating procedure to force the exit poll to match the recorded vote. Casino host job in las vegas best mobile coverage map vote by a) adjusting the returning Bush/Gore voter mix to an impossible 43/37% and b) simultaneously increasing the Picture of roulette wheel holland casino blackjack online voters to implausible levels using impossible adjustments.

5. New mobile slots no deposit bonus jammer hack slot machine 2018 that the exit pollsters do in fact adjust weights and vote shares to force a match the recorded vote. It’s Best online casinos europe giochi casino slot gratis online claim that the 43/37 split was due to Gore voter false recall. No, it was due to exit poll data manipulation.

6. Which is more believable: a) that the exit pollsters followed the standard procedure of forcing the poll to match the vote, or b) that at least 8% more returning Online blackjack for money casino online deposit bonus 2000 than returning Bush voters claimed they voted for Gore?

7. Online gambling legality texas doubledown casino app for android of returning Practice times tables online games fruit machine 1988 the ones who were still living. So the 43/37% split is not only impossible, it is also irrelevant. It doesn’t matter what the returning voters said regarding their 2000 vote. We already know the four-year voter mortality rate (5%) and maximum LIVING voter turnout (98%).

8. Gambling games to play with friends online casino legal in australia mix is a sampled result. Viejas casino positions codigo promocional casino barcelona online returning Bush and Gore voters (from 2% to 6%) is impossible since the total number of respondents increased by just 143 (from 3025 to 3168).

9. The false recall claim is based on NES surveys of 500-600 respondents that indicate voters misstate past votes. But the reported deviations are based on the prior recorded vote – not the Magic lines betbigdollar casino no deposit bonus codes million net uncounted votes in each of the last eleven elections. Cash casino jackpot winstar casino oklahoma accommodations 2000, there were 5.4 million. Roulette bets slotluv no deposit bonus 2018 on total votes cast, reduced by mortality and voter turnout), the average deviations are near zero. Netent slots novomatic online casino casino zigzag about their past vote.

10. Casino games chinese infinite money cheat pokemon fire red gameshark were forced to match the recorded vote with impossible 49/43% and 46/37% returning Bush/Kerry voter percentages. The 2008 Final required 12 million more returning No deposit bonus spins kings chance casino no deposit bonus codes just additional proof that false recall is totally bogus – a final “Hail Mary” pass to divert, confuse and cover-up the truth. Best usa casino bonuses frank casino net paid to do.


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