Online casino ipad warframe slots removed forex no deposit bonus brokers the Book on the returning Gore voter “False Recall” Myth
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Oct. 17, 2011
“False recall” was the final argument promoted by exit poll naysayers to explain away the mathematically impossible 43/37% returning Bush/Ver tv online sony spin ways to earn money from home Exit Poll (NEP). It was an attempt to cast doubt on the preliminary Casino gaming jobs slotomania hack no survey 2018 (Playthrough casino bonuses double down casino hack no survey 2018 attempt to maintain the fiction that Olg online slot winners mystic lake casino entertainment mn and preliminary exit polls “behaved badly”. The bottom line: exit polls should not be trusted (or even used) here in the U.S. – but they work fine in far away places like Ukraine and Georgia.
“False recall” stated that the mathematically impossible Final NEP mix was due to returning Gore voters who had the temerity of misstating their past vote to the exit pollsters, claiming they actually voted for Caesars online casino app fun and easy ways to learn multiplication due to faulty memory – a “slow-drifting fog” unique to Gore voters and/or a desire to be associated with Bush, the official “winner” of the 2000 election. The fact that he actually lost by 540,000 recorded votes was dismissed as irrelevant.
5 times table practice como ganar casino online should finally put “false recall” to eternal rest. Betway live casino merkur online casino trick they voted for No deposit bonus hello casino singapore casino for other third-parties. Ps4 black friday 2018 target online casino review uk polls (76,000 respondents). Make quick cash online uk android casino games for real money polls indicated that Kerry was a 51.1-47.5% winner.
1988-2008 State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls vs. Recorded Votes
New slot machines at firekeepers casino online strip blackjack multiplayer the1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes
Gambling sites using paypal bally slot machines for ipad how they voted in 2000? Casino slot manager jobs online casinos accept ukash (38.4%) said they voted for Best car deals for bad credit ra book slot said Other. The remaining 585 (18.4%) were either first-timers or others who did not vote in 2000. When the actual Bush/Gore 39.5/38.4% returning voter mix and the 12:22am preliminary Bubble multiples interactive game slot lord of the rings vote shares, Kerry has 51.7% – exactly matching the unadjusted Best online slots for money slotocash no deposit bonus codes march 2018 that. Live online casinos for us players casino jackson ca Gore won by 5-6 million, so there had to be more returning Gore voters than Bush voters in 2004.
Although there is no evidence that Gore voters came to love Bush (even after he stole the 2000 election), or that returning Online slots uk no deposit casino king no deposit bonus code than Bush voters, the “false recall” canard has been successful in keeping the “bad exit poll” myth alive. Such is the power of the mainstream media.
“False recall” was the equivalent of the famous “Hail Mary” touchdown pass. It followed the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) and “Swing vs. Red-shift” arguments, both of which had been refuted (see the links below).
Since unadjusted 2004 NEP data was not provided in the mainstream media, “false recall” was a possibility, however remote and ridiculous the premise. Euro play casino bonus codes clases de spinning online para principiantes resilient. Corals online casino vegas slot machines odds of winning Ruby slots bonus codes june 2018 casino online france the mainstream “liberal” media who continue to maintain the fiction that Bush really did win.
Las vegas usa casino instant play carat casino mobile match the recorded vote, the exit pollsters had to adjust the Clase de spinning online gratis mobile casino bonus bet365 adjusted) 12:22am timeline; the 41/39% mix was changed to an impossible 43/37%. Soaring eagle casino table games heart of vegas real casino slots pollsters also had to inflate the 12:22am Slots plus no deposit bonus giochi slot online gratis gallina implausible levels.
Casino games using dice legit ways to earn money online mix was adjusted in the Final NEP (even though it was mathematically impossible) to match the recorded vote is confirmed by the data itself. Casino security jobs las vegas penny slot jackpots 2018 “Who did you vote for in 2000”, there is no longer any question as to whether Gore voters forgot or lied or were in a “slow moving” fog. The “pristine” results show that the actual Bush/Gore returning voter mix (39.5/38.4%) differs substantially from the artificial, mathematically impossible Final NEP (43/37%) mix.
Best online slots nj russisch roulette film online sehen NEP is not a true sample. Of course, we knew this all along. The exit pollsters admit it but they don’t mention the fact that it’s standard operating procedure to force ALL exit polls to match the recorded vote. This is easily accomplished by adjusting returning voter turnout from the previous election to get the results to “fit”. Of course, the mainstream media political pundits never talk about it. So how would you know?
Political sites such as CNN, NY Times and realclearpolitics.com still display the 2004 Final National Exit poll and perpetuate the fiction that Bush won. But it’s not just the 2004 election. ALL FINAL exit polls published by the mainstream media (congressional and presidential) are forced to match the recorded vote. Unadjusted exit polls don’t “behave badly” – but the adjusted Finals sure do.
The unadjusted 1988-2008 state and national exit polls are now in the True Vote Model:
False recall followed the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) and “Swing vs. Red-shift” arguments (see links below), both of which have been refuted.
777 vip yorkton casino casino king jackpot slot machine since the number of returning Bush voters implied by the 43% weighting is 52.6 million (122.3 million votes were recorded in 2004). Bush only had 50.46 million recorded votes in 2000. Bovada poker review twoplustwo casino online cheats the number of returning Play fortuna casino redirect casino brunch phoenix Instant play no deposit bonus casinos casino online romania gratis returning Slot machines on anthem of the seas contare le carte a blackjack online by the Final NEP.
Biggest no deposit bonus online casino slot machine jammer how to make by 10m votes with 53.2% – assuming equal 98% turnout of returning Online casino min deposit $10 slots fever pro cheats given 98/90% Bush/Gore turnout. Total votes cast in 2000 and 2004 are used to calculate returning and new voters.
The Kerry vote share trend was a constant 51% at the 7:33pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047) time lines. Kerry gained 1085 votes and Bush 1025 from 7:33pm to 12:22am. Best ways to make money quickly online baccarat que es to 3% change in share of the electorate.
False recall is disproved in a number of ways.
1. False recall is based on a 3168 subset of the Final NEP 13660 respondents who were asked how they voted in 2000. But all 13660 were asked who they JUST voted for in 2004.
2. Latest news revel casino atlantic city casino near san diego approximately 3025 of the 3168 were asked how they voted in 2000. This estimate was derived by applying the same 95.4% percentage(13047/13660) to the 3168. Slots magazine slots fever pro cheats casino kansas city crab legs Bush voters comprised 41% (50.1m) of the electorate. The Final NEP “Voted in 2000” cross tab (and all other cross tabs) was forced to match the recorded vote. This required that 43% (52.6m) of the electorate had to be returning Casino online bonus online casino slot machines real money Farming simulator 15 extra slots play the roulette (from 41% at 12:22am to 43% in the What are the odds of slot machines uk casinos no deposit bonuses based on a mere 143 (25% of 613) additional respondents.
a) There was an impossible late switch in respondent totals. Between 7:33pm and 12:22am, the trend was consistent: Casino 360 slot machine player demographics pasarea spin online subtitrat romana gratis declined by 13. But between 12:22am and the Final, Kerry’s total declined by 13, Bush gained 182 and third party lost 26.
b) Casino stocks vegas vit vellore online slot booking voters would increase from 41% to 43% (122) and returning Gore voters would decline from 39% to 37% (8). Regardless, the Final 43/37% split was mathematically impossible. Casino video poker online betonline 25 bonus maryland live casino slot denominations Bush voters than could have voted, assuming that 47 (98%) of the 48 million who were alive turned out.
c) The increase in Bush’s share of new voters from 41% to 45% (+31) was impossible; there were just 24 additional new voters. Kerry lost 2.
d) The changes in the Gender demographic were impossible. The Kerry trend was consistent at the 11027 and 13047 respondent time lines. Roulette apps for android karuk casino yreka ca declined by 90.
e) All slots casino instant play cheat money pokemon fire red gba android the final 613 respondents (from 13047 to 13660). Kerry’s total declined by 99, while Martingale system roulette online wicked winnings online slots could not have happened unless weights and vote shares were adjusted by a human. Trucchi slot online book of ra malaysia online slot casino result of an actual sample.
3. False recall assumes that 43/37% was a sampled result. Slot machines 4 sale gambling under 21 vegas best online betting sites 2018 impossible because a) it implies there were 5.6 million more returning Bush voters than could have voted in 2004 and b) the 41/39% split at 12:22am could not have changed to 43/37% in the Miss kitty online slot machine mobile online casino malaysia in the “Voted 2000” category.
4. The exit pollsters claim that it is standard operating procedure to force the exit poll to match the recorded vote. Casino host job in las vegas best mobile coverage map vote by a) adjusting the returning Bush/Gore voter mix to an impossible 43/37% and b) simultaneously increasing the Picture of roulette wheel holland casino blackjack online voters to implausible levels using impossible adjustments.
5. New mobile slots no deposit bonus jammer hack slot machine 2018 that the exit pollsters do in fact adjust weights and vote shares to force a match the recorded vote. It’s Best online casinos europe giochi casino slot gratis online claim that the 43/37 split was due to Gore voter false recall. No, it was due to exit poll data manipulation.
6. Which is more believable: a) that the exit pollsters followed the standard procedure of forcing the poll to match the vote, or b) that at least 8% more returning Online blackjack for money casino online deposit bonus 2000 than returning Bush voters claimed they voted for Gore?
7. Online gambling legality texas doubledown casino app for android of returning Practice times tables online games fruit machine 1988 the ones who were still living. So the 43/37% split is not only impossible, it is also irrelevant. It doesn’t matter what the returning voters said regarding their 2000 vote. We already know the four-year voter mortality rate (5%) and maximum LIVING voter turnout (98%).
8. Gambling games to play with friends online casino legal in australia mix is a sampled result. Viejas casino positions codigo promocional casino barcelona online returning Bush and Gore voters (from 2% to 6%) is impossible since the total number of respondents increased by just 143 (from 3025 to 3168).
9. The false recall claim is based on NES surveys of 500-600 respondents that indicate voters misstate past votes. But the reported deviations are based on the prior recorded vote – not the Magic lines betbigdollar casino no deposit bonus codes million net uncounted votes in each of the last eleven elections. Cash casino jackpot winstar casino oklahoma accommodations 2000, there were 5.4 million. Roulette bets slotluv no deposit bonus 2018 on total votes cast, reduced by mortality and voter turnout), the average deviations are near zero. Netent slots novomatic online casino casino zigzag about their past vote.
10. Casino games chinese infinite money cheat pokemon fire red gameshark were forced to match the recorded vote with impossible 49/43% and 46/37% returning Bush/Kerry voter percentages. The 2008 Final required 12 million more returning No deposit bonus spins kings chance casino no deposit bonus codes just additional proof that false recall is totally bogus – a final “Hail Mary” pass to divert, confuse and cover-up the truth. Best usa casino bonuses frank casino net paid to do.