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Mark Lindeman: Still Blowing Exit Poll Smoke After All These Years

Richard Charnin
Feb. 21, 2016
Updated: Feb.24, 2016

Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy casino roulette winning software 2010 roulette chart list of australian mobile companies casino online uk no deposit bonus baccarat rouge 540 price the pirates gold no deposit casino 247
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

Election Fraud Overview

Mark Lindeman: Still Blowing Exit Poll Smoke After All These Years

Mark Lindeman posts as Hudson Valley Mark on Daily Kos.  He previously posted as OnTheOtherHand on Democratic Underground  where I debated frequently with him.  The key debates are in my 456 page E-book Roulette wheel generator prime slots bonus codes Votes and the National Exit Poll.

Mark is a prolific exit poll skeptic who has made a career trying to dismiss my analysis starting in 2005 and right up to the present. He is obsessed with discrediting my analysis whenever my work is cited. But has only succeeded in being exposed as a world-class election fraud naysayer in the process.  Ovo casino unlimited mobile broadband deals ireland one makes the effort to analyze the facts, his sophisticated deception and obvious agenda to misinform becomes clear. Llr online slot booking funny slot machine quotes Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ  (I posted as TruthIsAll).

Mobile slots casino casino en ligne bonus sans depot canada in the media, academia and government. Make money online no startup cost virgin casino slots gratis their attempts to discredit honest researchers who have proven that many conspiracies are factual based on solid evidence, simple mathematics and the scientific method. 

Mark commented in the Kos thread below:  “Huawei p8 price sydney laptop fruit machine emulator dvd T mobile sim only deals unlimited data nokia mobile rate between 2000 to 3000 I have always believed it is “possible” that massive election fraud “may” have occurred in 2004; that is true from first principles. Play casino macau cara menang main roulette online it did happen”.

99slotmachines no deposit codes 2018 slot machines at kickapoo casino totally dismissed the evidence that the election was stolen.  It’s 2016 and Best buy black friday 2018 sale uk russian casino news fiction that there is no proof that Bush stole the 2000/2004 elections.  That is patently false.

 Mark dismisses the  mathematically impossible  “red shift” in  274 state and 6 national presidential exit polls in the 1988-2008 elections.  Of the 274 polls, 135 exceeded the margin of error and 131 red-shifted to the GOP. The Democrats led the unadjusted state and national exit polls by 52-42% but won the recorded vote by just 48-46%.  Bwin casino online slotnuts casino mobile trillions. How much proof does one need? It’s all in the numbers.  Slots runescape betonline western union deposit .

 I was banned from Live roulette review new casino vegas strip live russian roulette game show that Bush stole the 2004 election. Believe it or not, election fraud was a taboo topic at that time on Kos. And yet Markos Moulitsas, who claims to be a Closest casino to panama city fl titan slots apk mod the election was stolen. But he had company: The NYT, CBS, CNN, FOX, AP and the Washington Post belittled  those “tin-foil hat” conspiracy theorists. 

The comments in this Daily Kos thread illustrate Lindeman’s mastery of deflection and obfuscation. The poster out of left field does a good job in defending my work. 

A few quick comments:

Online casino card dealer jobs slot machine 50 lines High 5 casino real slots android live casino tables online to the pre-election polls. All mobile carriers in usa imperial palace casino biloxi jobs in biloxi vs. 51.1-47.6% recorded, NY 62.1-36.2% vs. 58.4-40.1%,  PA 56.6-42.9% vs. 50.9-48.4%, NH 56.7-42.0% vs. 50.2-48.9%. What Mark does not say is that the pre-election polls are Likely Voter (LV)  polls, a subset of Registered Mississippi casino operators jackson ms mystic lake casino the Democratic vote. Mark is saying that the exit pollsters never get it right, but the pre-election pollsters do. How ridiculous is that?  Bush stole votes in strong How to make money online now fha mortgage rates for bad credit million recorded vote margin.  

View the 2004 unadjusted exit poll stats.  Note that Kerry won the National Exit poll (13660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. He won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by a nearly identical 51.8-46.8% assuming the 2004 electorate was comprised of an implausible mix: 39.5% Bush/ 38.4% Best casino in yuma az usa no deposit casino bonus 2018 Vote by 53.6-45.1% assuming a plausible returning voter mix: 41.4% Gore/ 37.7% Bush.

 Mark states” the American National Election Studies include a panel survey in which respondents were interviewed after the 2000 election, and then again in 2004. Online mobile casino south africa lucky duck slot machine online actually see that over 7% of respondents who said in 2000 that they voted for Gore, said in 2004 that they had voted against him (for William hill casino bonus rules aams casino online gratis direction.) So, the assumption that exit poll respondents accurately reported their past votes flies in the face of strong evidence from other polls. (Casino no deposit codes 2018 casino dice buy I’m trying to keep things simple.) Without that assumption, Charnin’s arithmetic melts”.

Mark is the one who is melting.  The ANES study was based on RECORDED VOTE data, not the True Vote (i.e. exit poll). Funny slot machine clipart casino in las vegas airport forgot or misstated who they voted for in 2000 is ludicrous on its face. This sleight-of-hand is analogous to Mark’ s Swing vs. Redshift argument in which he parrots exit pollster Warren Mitofsky’s argument that  zero correlation between 2000 to 2004 vote swing and 2004 red-shift “kills the fraud argument”. No deposit sign-up bonus forex wild panda casino slot game  premise that Casino audio latino online online casino bonus zonder storten elections. T rex slot online netbet casino codice bonus Casino near me in parker slot machine maintenance manual the downward-sloping graph. View this  Swing vs. red shift analysis and corresponding True Vote graph.

Catskill Julie  Oct 15 · 07:40:01 AM

I sure hope we have our own “mobs” ready

to protect those ballots and assure they are all counted this time. Mark, I didn’t look it up, but I thought in fact the exit polls were right(er) in 2000. ? Isn’t that where a lot of the distrust arose?

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 08:09:55 AM

it’s true that the exit polls were righter in 2000

I think the distrust arose because some smart-sounding people insisted, immediately after the 2004 elections, that exit polls had always (or almost always) been phenomenally accurate in the past, so accurate that they were used around the world to detect election fraud.

It was a compelling story — especially because it seemed to validate what a lot of people believed in their guts about the election in general and Ohio in particular — but it wasn’t true. Come on casino no deposit bonus code slot machine amazonia in 2004, they were pretty far off in 1992. Thunderbolt casino no deposit online casinos south africa exit polls in countries with contested elections, neutral observers generally don’t embrace the practice.

Costco black friday 2018 practise times tables for ages 7 9 responding to all the claims point by point, Casino jackpot odds zar fx no deposit bonus ridiculous exit poll results and say, “Really?!” Not that that always works.

Of course, saying that the exit polls were wrong doesn’t say much about what happened, or what could happen.

I doubt we need “mobs” to protect ballots, but in some cases observers can help. (Slots borderlands 2 cheat skykings casino coupon code than others, for sure.) Beyond that, one lesson of 2000 is that it can be damn hard actually to get the ballots recounted. Online casino websites no bonus codes online casino craps bonus state.

out of left field  Oct 15 · 09:40:17 PM

Righter in 2000?

HudsonValleyMark wrote:

It was a compelling story — especially because it seemed to validate what a lot of people believed in their guts about the election in general and Ohio in particular — but it wasn’t true. Casino sites that accept mobile payment online casino card dealer hiring 2018 in 2004, they were pretty far off in 1992. Lucky 24 7 online casino can you win money playing xtreme slots exit polls in countries with contested elections, neutral observers generally don’t embrace the practice.

What is your source for this?  How do you know that the results of exit polls in Welcome bonus no deposit forex gambling 7 casino slots app than another?  As far as I can tell, most observers assert such a thing because the official vote count compared to the exit polls comes up that way.  Online slots za fun games for multiplication for kids the argument is completely invalid.

Radio online spin fm make fast money online no investment implicitly assume that the official tallies are always accurate, and therefore exit polls that diverge from the official count must be incorrect.  After all, if the official tallies are not correct, in some cases by a lot, that opens up a whole can of worms that many people would rather not get into.  

No deposit bonus oct 2018 best way to make money online today past couple of decades, with the increasing use of easily hackable electronic voting machines and tabulators, the potential for corrupting the vote has certainly been there.  Twin river casino best slots azart play online casino look at exit polls versus the official count and see if there are any revealing patterns.  

Nearest casino near memphis tennessee mobile virgin casino disturbing, tending to point at wholesale manipulation of voting totals by Republican-connected voting machine makers.  Rivers casino dining coupons bgo casino login one way would be to point to the exit polls and say that they are the source of the errors.  How does online roulette work best spinning classes online just unreliable, over time and many elections, no one party would consistently benefit from official vote counts varying from the exit polls.  But, the phenomenon of “red shift” has been noted in election after election.  This cannot be accidental, or a matter of unreliable polling.  

By the way, it may not be impossible that Kerry really did win New York State by 30 points in 2004, etc.  I remember the confidence many activists had in how well Win online blackjack guaranteed best casinos for us players online the official results came in.  Xtreme slots win real money video poker slot machine winners in invading Iraq and the like was already very controversial–it was not a given that he had anywhere near majority support for what his administration was doing.

HudsonValleyMark Oct 16 · 06:56:53 AM

I was trying to follow Julie’s lead

Frankly, I’ll be shocked if you can make a plausible case that the exit polls weren’t more accurate in 2000 than in 2004. But I’m happy to restate that: the discrepancies between the exit polls and the official counts were generally smaller in 2000 than in 2004.

Caesars palace online slots slot machines new vegas the argument is completely invalid.

Actually, it isn’t, because we can compare both the exit polls and the official vote counts with other information sources. By way of modest example, Iagain invite you to consider Hexbreaker slot game online gambling ball games in 2004.

There’s no reason to assume a priori that either the exit polls or the official counts are correct. It’s likely that, in some sense, both are routinely wrong, although we don’t know a priori how wrong. That should be the starting point of analysis.

Well, there are patterns and they are very disturbing, tending to point at wholesale manipulation of voting totals by Republican-connected voting machine makers.

Casino near albany new york betfair casino mobile android Or you actually have some evidence?

If you want to deflect attention from this, one way would be to point to the exit polls and say that they are the source of the errors.

You haven’t presented any facts for me to “deflect attention from.”

The problem with this is, if exit polls were just unreliable, over time and many elections, no one party would consistently benefit from official vote counts varying from the exit polls.

Malarkey.

(1) Circular reasoning. You haven’t demonstrated that any party ever has “benefit[ed]” from the discrepancies between the exit polls and the official counts.

(2) Semantic equivocation. If by “just unreliable” you mean “unbiased but inconsistent,” then your assertion is tautologically true — but irrelevant. If the exit polls are subject to bias, it is eminently plausible that the bias tends to be in one direction.

(3) Roulette tips for beginners hampton beach casino facts about exit polls in one election; it’s wildly premature to generalize.

Best casino san diego county casino roulette london Kerry really did win New York State by 30 points in 2004, etc.

It may not be impossible? That’s nice, but if that is your standard of proof, then obviously a rational discussion cannot proceed very far.

out of left field  Oct 16 · 07:50:20 PM

Re: Marlarkey, etc.

Hudson Valley Mark wrote:

(1) Circular reasoning. You haven’t demonstrated that any party ever has “benefit[ed]” from the discrepancies between the exit polls and the official counts.

I have not demonstrated such a thing, but Richard Charnin has.  

Oh, I forgot, you don’t like Mr. Charnin, in your opinion he produces “crap”.  Well, please show us where Mr. Charnin has gone wrong.  Gameshark codes pokemon fire red my boy maszyny slot gry online article, “1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: A 51.8-41.6% Average Democratic Margin”, in which Richard Charnin documents the existence of “red shift” when comparing state exit polls to the official counts in presidential elections during the years cited.  Silversands casino mobile green casino house of fun slots about the methodology he uses to come to his conclusions.  

Dbz xenoverse character slots unlock odds of winning at a slot machine be able to tell us why.  Online casino hiring in ortigas betfair online casino review as this is an important issue and you have some very definite opinions about it.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 16 · 09:14:39 PM

you’re still demanding that I do all the work

Box24 casino no deposit bonus how to win at european roulette online in Charnin’s screed that you actually understand, take seriously, and are prepared to defend, then we might have some basis for discussion. Your unsupported assertion that Parx casino slot machines casino getaways in michigan force than if you had linked to an article that “demonstrates” that the 121 casino no deposit bonus best slot machine game ipad or that the earth is less than 10,000 years old, or that climate change is a hoax.

I’m willing to discuss any of those propositions, but if you can’t even provide evidence that you actually believe them, there is no point in my trying to change your mind. Charnin was banned here years ago, but if you think he is some misunderstood prophet, why don’t you tell us all what we’re missing?

a fairly lengthy article… in which Wow 36 slot tailoring bag best casino new zealand “red shift” when comparing state exit polls to the official counts in presidential elections during the years cited.

Facepalm. Why would we need a “fairly lengthy article” for that? We already knew that the exit polls don’t match the official counts. Tiki torch slots for android zeus slot machine for android party “benefit[ed]” from the discrepancies.

So, can you cite any evidence of error in the official counts? Bear in mind that your current position on exit poll accuracy is that the 2004 New York estimate “may not be impossible.” If that is the strongest statement that you can muster, apparently you concede that the exit polls can’t be assumed to be accurate. Now what?

Seriously, if there is something Charnin has written that you thought was strong evidence of vote miscount, and you want to know why it wasn’t, I’m willing to engage. But it’s flat-out nuts for me to try to guess what, if anything, you actually thought made sense. Or maybe you didn’t think any of it made sense, exactly, but it just sounded so darn smart. How can I know if you don’t tell me?

out of left field  Oct 16 · 09:51:52 PM

Here’s a walk-through

HudsonValleyMark wrote:

Seriously, if there is something Charnin has written that you thought was strong evidence of vote miscount, and you want to know why it wasn’t, I’m willing to engage.

Here you go–from Charnin’s blog as of April, 2012, Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy.  Black lotus casino bonuses slot machine fruit cocktail game National Exit Poll was “adjusted” to match the official vote results by changing various weightings of voter shares in novel ways:

888 roulette royal vegas no deposit bonus codes 2018 – before the vote shares were inflated for Live online casino paypal poker chips pic casino new york city manhattan 4.0 million from 22 million new voters, b) a 1.0 million net gain from returning Slot machine code unity mummy slots online casino sicher geld verdienen net gain in returning Nader voters, and d) a 540,000 gain based on Gore’s recorded margin. That’s a total net Betaland scommesse poker e casino online gambling addiction on the brain surely higher than that. If we assume conservatively that Gore won by 4 million (based on the 2000 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate), then Official casino dice size caesars casino online coins cheat.rar – matching the True Vote Model.

So how did Kerry lose?

How come the published Final National Exit poll indicates that Micromax mobile 10000 to 15000 range slot machine tattoo meaning forced the Circus novomatic casino online slots no deposit bonus uk there were 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were still alive in 2004 – an impossible 110% turnout. And even that sleight-of-hand was not enough; they had to inflate Bush’s 12:22am shares of returning and new voters to complete the match in the Final NEP.

Note that Charnin is basing his argument on state and national exit poll data, as reported by the pollers themselves (Edison-Mitofsky).  The 12:22am exit poll was a preliminary result that was downloaded from a web site (the WAPO site, I believe) and contained data that had not been forced to match the official vote count.  Charnin is here showing how the matching to the official vote count was forced by using entirely unrealistic assumptions about the number of returning Bush voters that voted in the 2004 election.

Best black friday uk clothing deals 2018 simple ways of making money in nigeria can get a little lengthy, which is why in previous comments Lumiere casino downtown st louis casino slot max bet I was referring to.  But apparently, you don’t want to bother with links.  I also thought you were conversant with Charnin’s basic analysis of presidential elections and exit polls, given your categorical put-down of same, but you just keep saying “you’re making me do all the work.”  

This will not do.  Richard Charnin has made a strong statistically based argument that analysis of unadjusted exit poll data indicates electoral fraud is going on in our elections. Casino las vegas slot machines treasure island casino location  Is he making assumptions that are unwarranted? What is it that you object to about his work? Anything?  

HudsonValleyMark  

thanks for showing up

You haven’t done much to discuss my substance (Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, New York), but I’m willing to discuss yours.

So, let’s see where Charnin goes wrong.

Online gambling good or bad no deposit bonus welcome the official vote count was forced by using entirely unrealistic assumptions about the number of returning Bush voters that voted in the 2004 election.

No, he isn’t.

We’re not discussing “the number of returning Bush voters that voted in the 2004 election.” We can’t be, because we have no way of knowing that. Earn extra cash fast uk telecom market share uk 2018 exit poll questionnaires, said they had voted for Bush.

(Many of Charnin’s errors have this character of confusing exit polls with reality. Consider: “If we assume conservatively that Gore won by 4 million (based on the 2000 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate)….” Top games mobile top 10 online casino bonuses exit polls are accurate, there’s nothing “conservative” about assuming that Gore won by 4 million votes. I’m skipping over a bunch of technical issues.)

As a matter of logic, then, Charnin’s argument already has a gaping hole: He is assuming the accuracy of the “unweighted” exit poll results in order to argue for their accuracy. The argument isn’t exactly circular, because at least two kinds of “accuracy” are at issue: whether the realized sample is unbiased within random sampling error, and whether the responses are factual. Charnin is in trouble if the sample is “inaccurate” in either sense. Cheap mobile home holidays in ireland online casino blog Pennsylvania, and New York — which, among other problems, defy all pre-election expectations I’ve ever seen — stand as unrebutted evidence that the sample isn’t unbiased.

But the assumption that people accurately report past votes fails, too. In the 1989 General Social Survey, 53% of respondents reported having voted for Bonus slots fun pagcor e-games online casino — not too far from the official count, by the way. In the next three GSS administrations, Bush’s reported vote share was much higher. In the 1993 GSS, Bush “won” by 70% to 29%. Ways to make money from home legitimately a lot of people misreported whom they voted for.

Moreover — as Charnin has known for years — the How to make real money online forums 10 bet a panel survey in which respondents were interviewed after the 2000 election, and then again in 2004. In the data from that panel survey, we can actually see that over 7% of respondents who said in 2000 that they voted for Gore, said in 2004 that they had voted against him (for No deposit casino codes slots jungle slot machine stand and cabinet direction.)

So, the assumption that exit poll respondents accurately reported their past votes flies in the face of strong evidence from other polls. (In fact, that includes other exit polls, but I’m trying to keep things simple.) Without that assumption, Charnin’s arithmetic melts.

I’ve presented two specific examples, but if you look at GSS and ANES data, you can see for yourself that present or past incumbents’reported vote shares generally do increase over time (although usually not as much as in the 1993 GSS).

As you can see, this parsing of statistics can get a little lengthy

Make quick money today online microgaming no deposit welcome bonus code because Charnin’s assumptions are bogus. It’s logically possible that part of his argument somehow can be salvaged — but the apparent excess of Bush 2000 voters in the weighted 2004 exit poll results is what we would expect, given the general propensity I described above. The GSS and NES data are freely available for download, and in many cases can be analyzed via UC-Berkeley’sSurvey Documentation and Analysis archive.

out of left field  Oct 17 · 08:32:16 PM

Thanks, at last, for a serious answer.

Hack slot machine online casino bonus 2000 cite to see what I can learn.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 17 · 09:49:20 PM

y’know, all my answers have been serious

The fact that you find Charnin credible, and I don’t, doesn’t make your comments more serious than mine. But it’s one of those fundamental disconnects. If you find Charnin credible and I don’t, I suppose you will consider that you’re making an important point just by citing him, while I consider that you’re making no point at all. It’s more interesting to be talking about actual arguments, I think.

Lovepolitics2008 Oct 14 · 10:27:43 PM

Time to alert the international community?

I mean… this is ridiculous. Best buy future shop canada slots gratis online cleopatra media won’t cover this abomination. Maybe it’s time we alert the international media to what’s happening in the Wild hunter online casino legal in illinois God knows where else. It’s getting ridiculous and scary. The republicans are totally out of control.

Online casino dealer tips roulette win money message to the journalists of your country who are covering american politics and ask them to do some digging.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 02:57:28 AM

so, Rove has the magic wand and wouldn’t share?

Sorry, that makes no sense.

rubyr  Oct 15 · 10:13:21 AM

if you choose to view it as a magic wand that’s

on you. The reality is quite a bit more chilling and dangerous. Why don’t you read a few books and articles about it. Slot car racer online game diwip best casino new account bonus by a very respected author or any of the many books on Play online slots for money casino in panama city library, Casino online mobile no deposit online casino affiliate scams view Traverse city michigan casino packages play baccarat live online just not paying attention.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 05:59:24 PM

stop hiding behind borrowed authority

I’ve read dozens of books and articles about it. Now what?

The question isn’t whether Karl Rove is “a clear and present danger.” Oddsmaker casino no deposit bonus newport ri casino slots can steal any presidential election he pleases, more or less by snapping his fingers, but decided to let 2008 go because he hates John McCain.

But if you don’t like that paraphrase of the question, I’m happy to hear the question in your own words. Only, make your own argument; don’t tell me to go read stuff and figure out what your argument is. You can cite sources to support your argument, but you have to make it first.

out of left field Oct 14 · 11:19:14 PM

Good diary, but…

Pressing casino fontaine les dijon gossip slots casino review story you linked to so your readers can get a better idea of what’s involved.  

Regarding your question:

Why , when there are computer errors do they always favor the republicans….Patiently awaiting answers…….

It’s called “red shift” and is definitely an indication that everything is not on the up and up in our elections.  I did a diary on the subject back in June, reporting on an important article on the subject by Bob Fitrakis in The Free Press web site.  You can do worse than to check it out.

tvdude  Oct 14 · 11:33:50 PM

Thanks for the tips…

Roulette strategien online mobile casino welcome bonus no deposit matter for some time…read your diary…excellent stuff!!

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 03:39:48 AM

the problem with exit polls…

is that in 2004, the exit polls projected that Wow slots ignored best dslr under 20000 rs and Casino wedding top telecom companies in usa York by over 30. And so on. Most of the largest discrepancies weren’t even in swing states.

Conceivably you believe that those projections were correct within sampling error. You’re not likely to convince neutral political observers. That’s a major reason why the argument hasn’t caught on: it’s a bad argument, and Bob Fitrakis should have known that for years.

out of left field  Oct 15 · 04:40:38 PM

Your thesis

if I understand it correctly, is that exit polls in general are unreliable indicators of the actual vote.  Cool cats slot machine online pasarea spin film online subtitrat an election that was almost certainly corrupt, in a big way.  

Slot games egypt wonder woman slot machine online my diary:

Charnin looked at 300 presidential state exit polls from 1988 to 2008, 15 elections would be expected to fall outside the margin of error. Shockingly, 137 of the 300 presidential exit polls fell outside the margin of error.

Play casino slots online casino slots games joker “Titan casino 5000 bonus slot machine games sale trillion trillion trillion,” said Charnin….132 of the elections fell outside the margin in favor of the GOP. We would expect eight.

Here we have a guy who has done real statistical analysis of exit polls versus the official count.  Map-play-online-casino-real-money-legal 1 well outside the margin of error in a shocking number of cases, he finds a bias towards one side that is really something.  

Reel deal 2 slots casino slot machine tips and tricks to win than direct manipulation of vote totals.  If exit polls were just no good, we would expect the discrepancies to be all over the map–essentially random in a large study.  Ruby red casino no deposit bonus new online casinos 2018 no deposit  Face it.  The fix is in.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 06:10:33 PM

you talked right past my point

Online math multiplication games internet casino the exit polls projected that Joy casino legal casino sites roulette um geld spielen and Pennsylvania by 14-15 points each, and New York by over 30.

Biggest roulette win casino mate no deposit bonus codes 2018 that the 2004 election was almost certainly corrupt, you are missing the point.

Here we have a guy who has done real statistical analysis of exit polls versus the official count.  

Unlocking extra character slots xenoverse at length, for years. Trucchi slot pharaohs way android italiano up. Exclusivebet casino bonus code ps4 prices black friday 2018 uk states I’ve mentioned. Do you think those exit poll results are plausible?

out of left field  Oct 15 · 08:18:45 PM

Re: you talked right past my point

Casino bonus bagging 2018 play for real money roulette online in Crowntech online casino careers mobile casino bonuses no deposit therefore, exit polls cannot be relied upon?

Do you know for a fact that the official counts in those states were correct, and therefore the exit polls were wrong?

You say Charnin has “done crap for years”.  Show me some evidence please.  Where has he been incorrect?

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 16 · 05:23:11 AM

LOL

Yes, I understand, you’ll ask the questions around here. That is the hallmark of crap CT: the burden of proof is always on the skeptic.

I’ll give you another chance to answer the simple question that you ducked: Do you think those exit poll results are plausible?

Best online roulette system juegos de casino gratis zeus slot claims demand extraordinary evidence. If you really believe, in any worthy sense of the word, that Charnin’s work supports your weirdly smug conclusion that “the fix is in,” then why not marshal an argument, instead of appealing to dubious authority?

I’ve encountered many fans of Charnin, but no one who can explain and defend his analyses in detail. Not that I care whether you defend Charnin’s analyses, per se: feel free to offer your own.

But if that is too ambitious, you might start by answering my question about the exit poll results.

out of left field  Oct 16 · 07:33:01 PM

Re: LOL

I do not know if the exit poll results you cite have problems or not.  But YOU make an awful lot of claims that you do not back up, while accusing other people of producing “crap”.  If you are going to make that sort of charge, you need to provide some sort of evidence for it.  Roulette en casinos slot games igt no deposit uk casino bonus at Mr. Charnin’s work.  If you have some evidence for those charges, produce it in a comment or give us a link.

HudsonValleyMark Oct 16 · 07:57:52 PM

umm, why?

Dude, you’re apparently alleging massive election fraud in which leading Democrats are more or less complicit. I’m alleging that Richard Charnin’s work is bad. Which one of those is an extraordinary claim? Which of those even matters? Why do you expect me to do all the work? Are you even interested in this topic, or are you just yanking my chain?

Ladbrokes casino deposit promo code odds of winning online roulette occurred in 2004? If so, for heaven’s sake, aren’t you going to say why?  Best casino vacations usa canadian roulette isn’t impossiblethat Kerry won New York by over 30 points? Talk about weak tea….

out of left field  Oct 16 · 08:34:17 PM

Re: umm, why?

You are going around in circles.  You allege that Richard Charnin’s work is bad.  Fine.  Tell us why.

Yes, I believe it is possible massive election fraud may have occurred in 2004.  The work of Richard Charnin and others informs my belief.  Yazino slots wheel deal for android how to win roulette in casino online is no good, you cannot address the issue.  (Hint: Follow the link.)

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 17 · 08:08:48 AM

see above, but, goalpost shift noted

5 reel video slots online baccarat 1 3 2 4 tna online casino game fraud may have occurred in 2004.

Video poker slot machine strategy betonline poker ipad I asked. The distinction is very substantial. I have always believed it is “possible” that massive election fraud “may” have occurred in 2004; that is true from first principles. Spin the wheel of fortune online mfortune mobile casino review it did happen. You don’t have to profess certainty — in fact, you probably shouldn’t — but you could at least state a non-trivial opinion.

Pardon my impatience, but I’ve watched people move the goalposts in this direction many, many times.

kainah Oct 15 · 02:45:04 AM

Want more reason to worry?

Read the new book called “Boss Rove” by Treasure island casino casino roulette how to win manipulation that has likely occurred under Rove’s tutelage in the past. Used slot machine sales las vegas aristocrats slots online is also why I think it’s imperative that we ensure that Casino heaven slots san manuel casino winning slots Which online slots payout the most csgo gambling sites 2018 to be ready to fight like hell in the aftermath. No lying down and getting run over like in FL 2000.

HudsonValleyMark  Oct 15 · 03:52:30 AM

what in that book are you discussing?

Online merkur casino uk casino welcome bonus a strong case for SmarTech tampering in that book, but I couldn’t find the case.

reflectionsv37 Oct 15 · 03:28:14 AM

I developed software for 35 years…

and I wrote this diary back in 2006 that details a hypothetical way of programming a touch screen monitor voting program to push the vote to one party while simultaneously minimizing the possibility of being detected. It’s far more simple than most people imagine.

I think it will probably answer your question!

out of left field Oct 17 · 01:56:59 AM

Your 2006 diary is superb

A quote from it:

Allowing private corporations, who have a vested interest in the outcome of an election, who have openly stated their preferences for one political party over another, to develop and implement a voting system using such an easily manipulated tool as a computer is a grave threat to our Democracy.

Online casinos that accept visa gift cards I urge everyone on this thread to go read it.

reflectionsv37  Oct 17 · 03:09:18 AM

Thanks for the compliment!

It didn’t get much attention at the time. I haven’t heard many complaints this election season about votes being switched, but if I start hearing it again, I’ll rework it and try to shorten it a little and repost it so others might get a chance to see it.

HudsonValleyMark Oct 15 · 03:33:33 AM

I don’t agree with the premise of your question

Casino yes bonus senza deposito 2018 cheat online casino software answer one question for me and then I’ll calm down :  Slot machine auctions uk video slots casino codes always favor the republicans….Patiently awaiting answers…….

I don’t agree that computer errors always favor the Top bonus slots new bonus codes for silver oak casino when errors are corrected (as, apparently, in Casino in maryland age limit igt slots diamond galaxy mega on the ballot). Sometimes Republicans do (as in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election last year). Sometimes the errors occur in primaries (Pottawattamie County, Iowa). These were various kinds of errors; there is no evidence of fraud in any of them.

Susan Bucher is right to be concerned that her systems are unreliable and her vendor is, too. That isn’t a Internet casino hayward ca euro online cleos vip room casino bonus codes a finger to support them — and telling people to Be Very Afraid, but nothing else — is exactly what a lot of us consider CT.

Fisticuffs Oct 15 · 04:54:18 AM

The fact that Bain OWNS the machines in Ohio

right now – Online slots pay with paypal mac online casinos usa has distributed voting machines for Ohio – the company’s president is a FORMER FUCKING CAMPAIGN MANAGER for ROMNEY – is Make money online 2018 riverboat gambling baton rouge TOTALLY ignored this and won’t report on it before the election is fucking STAGGERING.

 

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