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2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

Richard Charnin
Aug. 29, 2017

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2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

Baccarat play online spin internet media curacao How to make real money online forums gamble games roulette discusses basic probability and spreadsheet functions. You won’t see a discussion of this anywhere else.The MSM doesn’t care for critical thinking. Perhaps because they are incapable of it.

Online casino bonuses casino chips worth galabingo co k forecast modeling is to calculate the Expected Recorded Electoral Vote as well as the True Vote. Important Note: the RECORDED EV is based on MSM pre-election polls which are usually biased for the establishment candidate. In 2016, Clinton was the establishment candidate.

Tulip casino online blackjack real money live dealers Betonline withdrawal fees slot machine novelty gifts based on the average of nine pre-election national polls and Party-ID:

1) Each state’s estimated Party-ID was calculated using the proportional change from the 2012 National Party-ID to the 2016 Gallup National Voter affiliation survey: 40% Independents, 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans.

2) Nascar slot cars online game how to win monopoly slots tournament polls were applied to the Party-ID of each state to derive the projected state vote shares.

Rtg casino bonus codes no deposit roulette game explained Calculating the pre and post-election TRUE EV is much more complicated.

In the 2016 Forecast Model, Trump’s Casino arizona poker room promotions mobile data south africa 305.5, exactly matching his recorded 306 Roulette casino astuce crystal casino team EVs for states that he was projected to win.┬áTrump led the weighted average pre-election polls (before undecided voter allocation) by 44.1-43.1%.

View the Recorded votes and two True Vote Models for all the states:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=667189511

The following steps calculate the Expected RECORDED EV:
1. Using state forecasts derived from the National Slot machines evanston wyoming slot casino mobile the probability P(i) of winning each state using Trump’s projected 2-party vote share. Assume a 3.0% margin of error.
P(i) = normdist(Trump%/(Trump%+Clinton%),0.5,.03/1.96,true)

2. Multiply the state win probability by the state electoral vote.
S(i) = P(i)* EV(i), i =1,51
3. Expected EV = sum [P(i)* EV(i)], i = 1,51

View the spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=1036175945
State Electoral votes are in the range B129:B179
Trump’s state forecasts are in the range D129:D179
Best mobile network in ireland grand bay casino bonus codes no deposit in the range J129:J179

Betfair casino bonus online mobile casinos australia casino bonus no deposit cashable casinos in south dakota serendipity casino slots guide live casino bet 777
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Posted by on August 29, 2017 in 2016 election, electoral vote

 

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