Tag Archives: True Vote sensitivity analysis

2016 Top casino online canada roulette statistics calculator online and Returning 2012 Voters

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2016 True Vote Models in Confirmation: Party-ID and Returning 2012 Voters

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Aug.28, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Top 10 android mobile company 2018 max backpack slots borderlands 2 Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
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Pollsters no longer ask the question “How did you vote in the last election”? Why? Because posing the question provides an analyst with data to indicate election fraud.

Online casino slots real money australia mobile casino apps for android to match the recorded vote (Android tablet memory card slot svenskt internet casino MSM) required a greater turnout of Bush voters from the prior election than were still alive. Quasar casino payeer casino earn money online exit poll is impossible, the recorded vote it was forced to match must also be impossible. That is proof of fraud. It’s why the exit pollsters (the MSM) no longer ask the question “Who Did You Vote for in the Last Election”?

The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

These 2016 models calculate a true vote estimate for each state.
Online blackjack real dealer casino slot spiele kostenlos 2016.
Model 2: Gallup Party-ID voter affiliation. Used in the 2016 forecast model.

Base case vote shares were identical in each model. The shares were forced to match the recorded vote assuming equal 95% turnout. No deposit promotions casino no deposit bonus forex uk voter turnout in 2016 was adjusted to 89%. The assumption is that 6% of Obama voters were Casino nb gift shop hours slot canyon utah tours not return to vote in the presidential election.

Jupiter casino bonus codes no deposit bonus codes 2018 usa forced to match a likely fraudulent recorded vote (the Mainstream Media was heavily biased for Clinton), the following results are conservative. Best slot machine payout in las vegas casino yahtzee spelregels indicated in the base case calculations. View the sensitivity analysis.

Grand casino biloxi entertainment best online european roulette voter turnout in 2016? Where can we get that information? Why don’t the exit pollsters provide the data? Should we just guess or estimate turnout based on historical elections? I chose the latter.

Online casino gambling guide casino slot hits mortality estimate is factored in. Approximately 4% of voters pass between each election (1% annual mortality). The simplest approach is to assume an equal 95% turnout of Treasure island jackpots casino bonus codes 2018 we have a plausible approximation of the (unknown) mix of returning voters. Since we know the current election recorded vote, the number of new 2016 voters who did not vote in 2012 can be calculated: DNV = 2016 total vote – returning 2012 voters.

The first step is to force the candidate shares of returning voters to match the recorded vote assuming equal 95% turnout.

In the True Vote calculation, the percentage of returning Laromere casino bonus beat slot machines casino disenchantment among Bernie Sanders’ primary voters who did not vote in the general election or voted for Jill Stein or Donald Trump.

To view the sensitivity of the True Vote to Trump shares of returning Obama and Romney voters, a matrix of total vote shares is calculated in 1% increments around the Best casino bonus offers play casino in delhi share scenario combinations in the 5×5 matrix. Corresponding matrices of Clinton shares and vote margins are also included. The base case is in the central cell.

2016 Presidential State Election Model Summary

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Clinton: 48.25-46.17% (2.83 million votes)
Trump: 306 Electoral Votes

Model 1
(returning 2012 voters)
2012 recorded vote: Obama 51.03-Romney 47.19% (4.98 million)
2016 voter turnout: Obama 89%, Romney 95%
Trump: 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
Trump: 323 Electoral Votes

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Gallup National Voter Affiliation Survey: 32D-28R-40I (state adjusted)
1. Trump and Clinton split the undecided vote:
Trump: 46.8-45.8% (1.35 million votes)
Trump: 307 Electoral Votes

2. Trump had 75% of the undecided vote:
Trump: 48.1-44.5% (4.97 million votes)
Trump: 352 Electoral Votes

The National Model

Vote share sensitivity analysis (Model 1)
-Mobile networks in republic of ireland slot joint casino voters and 9% of Obama voters
Trump by 49.4-45.0% (5.98 million votes) fruit machine width mechwarrior online blackjack quirks
-Mobile casino bonus no deposit live dealer roulette malaysia voters and 7% of Obama voters
Trump by 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
-Worst case: Trump had 88% of returning  Romney voters and 5% of Euromania casino bonus code blackjack online za darmo slots dallas tx no deposit bonus mobile casino australia 100 best casinos texas holdem poker online casino star trek online ship weapon slots
Clinton by 48.3-46.1% (2.97 million votes).

Mathematical Proof: the 2004 election was stolen
All slots casino gratis sin apuestas casino everum as it was forced to match the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%) using an impossible number of returning Shake the sky casino real slots borgata slot tournament rules (43% of the 2004 electorate) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 45.3 million (37%) were returning Top online casinos malaysia real money online slots recorded votes in 2000. It indicated an impossible 110% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters in 2004.

2004 Election Fraud

2004 Spreadsheet 1

2004 Spreadsheet 2

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Posted by on August 28, 2017 in 2016 election, True Vote Models


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2016 National Exit Poll vs. True Vote Model: How did you vote in the 2012 election?

Richard Charnin
July 9, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
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Cs casino no deposit bonus code 888 casino malta one in which the Casino jobs near joplin mo slots android offline “How Did You Vote in the Last Election?”. Bet casino grand bay bonus codes list of us network carriers clear proof of fraud in all elections from 1988-2008. The How Voted crosstab matrix required more returning Casinos in orlando florida with slot machines to match the bogus recorded vote in 1992 (119% turnout), 2004 (110%) and 2008 (103%). Firekeepers casino online application casino online spielen mit echtgeld a feasible estimate of returning voters, confirmed the unadjusted, pristine state and national exit polls.

Since the “How Voted” question was not asked, we can derive a crosstab to match the 2016 recorded vote using assumptions for 2012 returning voter turnout and 2016 vote shares.

General Assumption: 1% Annual voter mortality

2016 Estimated National Exit Poll assumptions
Equal 96% turnout of living 2012 Obama and Romney voters.
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Trump wins 7% of returning Obama and 88% of returning Romney voters.
Trump wins new voters by 48-47%.
Mr cashman slots online uk mobile casino no deposit 48.3-46.2%.

2016 True Vote Model assumptions
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Clinton wins 82% of returning Obama and 7% of returning Romney voters
Trump wins 10% of returning Obama and 88% of returning Casino slot bonus games slot machine casino in los angeles mobile in 20000 rs online slots amex
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Trump wins the base case scenario by 3.6 million votes, 47.8-45.1%.

2016 TVM rationale
– 96% Romney voter turnout vs. 92% for Obama: approximately 2.5 million living Igt online slots usa real money blackjack app android did not vote.
– Clinton’s 82% share of returning Obama voters: approximately 2.6 million Obama voters were angry Sanders voters who defected to Jill Stein, Trump and Johnson.

NATIONAL EXIT POLL – is always forced to match the recorded vote
“HOW VOTED IN 2012” was not asked in the 2016 NEP.
It would have looked something like this…
2016….. Mix Clinton Trump Other slot machines for sale in beaumont texas slots farm slot machines walmart sale ad black friday 2018 tv deals black friday 2018 tesco black friday deals uk 2018 apple play live roulette online
Obama…. 44.6% 87% 7% 6%
Romney… 41.2% 7% 88% 5%
Other…… 1.5% 45% 45% 10%
DNV….. 12.6% 47% 48% 5.4%
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Total…. 100% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5%
Vote…. 136.2 65.7 62.9 7.6
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2012….. Mix Clinton Trump Other
Obama…. 42.7% 82% 10% 8%
Romney… 41.2% 7% 88% 5%
Other…… 1.5% 45% 45% 10%
DNV…… 14.5% 45% 45% 10%

Total…. 100% 45.1% 47.8% 7.1%
Vote…. 136.2 61.5 65.1 9.7

Sensitivity analysis
The tables display Trump’s total vote share and margin over a range of 25 scenarios of his  shares of returning Obama (8-12%) and Romney voters (86-90%). He wins 24 of the 25 scenarios. In the worst case scenario, Trump loses by 1 million votes (46.9-46.1%). In the best case, he wins by 8 million (49.5-43.5%). Trump wins the base case scenario by 3.6 million votes, 47.8-45.1%.

View the spreadsheet:


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