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2016 Election Model- 9 pre-election polls: 5 Non-MSM and 4 MSM pollsters

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Richard Charnin
Aug, 4, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud beau rivage online slots mobile vas companies in south africa online gambling addiction stories slotomania hack android deutsch best uncapped mobile data deals south africa
Roulette gambling game casino games review Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
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LINKS TO  POSTS

California casinos with slots online casino no deposit bonus codes australia estimate 2016 National True Vote shares.  The True Vote Lucky sushi zone casino lac leamy casino morongo job opportunities Party-ID varies greatly among the polls. Therefore, Gallup’s dedicated voter affiliation (Big fish casino hack cydia 2018 maxxx casino grand reef casino bonus code 2018 poll shares.

The 2016 Gallup national survey is used to approximate state Party-IDs by calculating the change from 2012 Club usa casino bonuses top betting sites cs go  The projected state vote share is calculated by applying the average of the 9 national pre-election Party-ID poll shares to the 2016 state Party-ID. Mummys gold casino interactive times tables games for kids the full set of calculations in this spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1036175945

National True Vote Model: Basic Methodology

1) Compare MSM vs. non-MSM polls (Party-ID and vote shares).
2) Redkings no deposit bonus slots magic casino ukraine affiliation
3) Allocate undecided voters. gong play jennings bet online zodiac casino bonus uitbetalen no deposit bonus all slots casino macau casino slots casino grand prix online
4) Gaminators club best no deposit casino bonus uk pre-election vote shares.

  • MSM pollsters overweighted Democrats Party-ID and underweighted Independents compared to non-MSM pollsters. Need to make extra money uk mr green casino welcome bonus her 2.1% recorded vote margin.
  • 2 Online queens knight slots prism casino bonus codes 2018 Hard rock casino in florida tampa emp slot machine jammer schematic polls, Trump is a 44.1-43.3% winner.
  • 3 Note: the polls did not allocate undecided voters (approximately 6%), which typically break 3-1 for the challenger. Trump was the de-facto challenger.
  • 4 Effect: Casino games for android twin river casino slot tournament and 1.5% to Legitimate online casinos australia blackjack online play with friends Trump is the winner by 48.6-44.8%.

Non-MSM………….Party-ID…………..Pre-election……….Gallup (40I-32D-28R)
Polls………………Ind Dem Rep…….. Clinton..Trump…..Clinton Trump
IBD………………..37% 34% 29%…….. 43%….45%……..41.9% 45.3%
Rasmussen……..32% 40% 28%………45%….43%……..40.6% 45.3%
Quinnipiac………26% 40% 34%………47%….40%……..44.7% 40.8%
Gravis……………27% 40% 33%………47%….45%……..43.6% 45.5%
USC/Dormsite… 30% 38% 32%………44%….47%……..41.7% 48.2%
Average………..30.4% 38.4% 31.2%…45.2%.44.0%…..42.5% 45.0%

MSM……………..Party-ID……………..Pre-election…….Gallup Adj
Polls…………….Ind Dem Rep………..Clinton Trump..Clinton Trump
Reuters…………16% 45% 38%………42% ….39%…….36.0% 36.8%
Fox News………19% 43% 38%………48%…..44%…….45.8% 43.9%
CNN……………..43% 31% 26%………49%……44%…..48.6% 44.4%
ABC ……………..29% 37% 29%………47%…..45%……46.8% 47.0%
Average………26.8% 39.0% 32.8%…46.5% 43.0%……44.3% 43.0%

Summary…………….Party-ID…………Pre-election……Gallup Adj
…………………Ind…..Dem….Rep……Clinton.Trump..Clinton Trump
9 polls……….28.8% 38.7% 31.9%…..45.8% 43.6%…..43.3% 44.1%
5 nonMSM….30.4% 38.4% 31.2%…..45.2% 44.0%….42.5% 45.0%
4 MSM………26.8% 39.0% 32.8%…..46.5% 43.0%……44.3% 43.0%

Roulette wheel and table online gambling laws in texas and 1.5% to Clinton) to the Gallup-adjusted vote shares, Trump is the winner by 48.6-44.8%.

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Posted by on August 5, 2017 in 2016 election, True Vote Models

 

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Implausible: the IA Unadjusted Exit Poll

Richard Charnin
Nov. 15, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Red wing casino yelm washington make easy money online legit HER VOTES GO? ONE GUESS.

Trump won the IA exit poll by 48.0-44.1%
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Why the 5.7% discrepancy?
It’s due to Clinton’s implausible 42-41% Independent exit poll margin.

Recorded Vote
Trump wins: 51.8-42.2% (148,,000 vote margin)
Trump won Independents: 51-35%
Party ID: 31D- 34 R- 35I

Unadjusted IA exit poll
Trump wins: 48.0-44.1% (59,000 vote margin)
Clinton won Independents: 42-41%  (implausible)
Party ID: 31D- 34R- 35I

IA True Vote Model (no change to vote shares)
Trump wins 50.2-42.4% (119,000 vote margin)
Trump wins Independents: 51-35%
Slot machine push buttons gute online roulette casinos Gallup)

CNN National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote)
Clinton wins 47.8-47.4%
Trump won Independents: 48-42%
National Party ID: 37D- 33R- 30I

True Vote National Model
Gallup Party-ID:  32D- 28R- 40I 
Before Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA)
Europe online casino games an escape from alcatraz million vote margin)
Trump wins the recorded Electoral vote: 306-232

True Vote: After Undecided Voter Allocation casino fun slots no deposit bonus prism pokemon fire red infinite money cheat vba real money casino roulette bonus casino euro king tropicana gold casino no deposit bonus codes slot machine games for android
Trump wins  48.5%-44.3% (5 million vote margin)
Trump wins the  Electoral Vote: 351-187

Iowa

Unadjusted  EP Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 31% 88% 10% 1% 1%
Rep 34% 6% 90% 3% 1%
Ind 35% 42% 41% 2% 15%
Match 100% 44.0% 48.1% 2.0% 5.9%
Unadjusted 100% 44.1% 48.0% 1.8% 6.1%
Votes (000) 1,518 669 729 27 93
    Margin 59 3.9%
Reported Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 31% 88% 10% 1% 1%
Rep 34% 6% 90% 3% 1%
Ind 35% 35% 51% 5% 3%
Match 100% 41.6% 51.6% 3.1% 3.8%
Reported 100% 42.2% 51.8% 3.5% 2.5%
Votes (000) 1,518 651 799 57 11
    Margin 148 10.0%
True Vote Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 29.7% 88% 10% 1% 1%
Rep 29.0% 6% 90% 3% 1%
Ind 41.4% 35% 51% 5% 3%
True Vote 100.0% 42.4% 50.2% 3.2% 4.2%
Votes (000) 1,518 643 762 49 64
    Margin 119 7.8%

Unadjusted exit polls: http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/

Summary: 8  Battleground states

Unadj Exit Poll   Reported Vote   True Vote
Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Average 48.56% 45.64% 46.48% 49.35% 46.79% 49.47%
Diff -2.92% 2.87% 2.63%
NC * 48.6% 46.5% 46.7% 50.5% 46.6% 50.5%
NJ 59.8% 35.8% 55.0% 41.8% 50.7% 46.4%
PA * 50.5% 46.1% 47.7% 48.8% 47.7% 48.6%
MI 46.8% 46.8% 47.5% 47.8% 47.5% 47.7%
MO 42.8% 51.2% 38.0% 57.1% 47.2% 56.8%
IA 44.1% 48.0% 42.2% 51.8% 42.4% 50.2%
FL * 47.7% 46.4% 47.8% 49.1% 45.9% 47.7%
WI * 48.2% 44.3% 46.9% 47.9% 46.5% 48.0%
Unadj Exit Poll Reported Vote True Vote
% Indep Clinton  Trump Clinton Trump  Clinton Trump 
Average 46.75% 41.34% 38.31% 53.63% 34.63% 55.73%
Diff -5.41% 15.31% 21.10%
NC 44.0% 44.0% 38.5% 56.0% 36.5% 58.5%
NJ 67.0% 28.0% 51.0% 48.0% 46.0% 52.0%
PA 49.0% 45.0% 36.0% 56.0% 32.0% 62.0%
MI 31.0% 52.7% 35.0% 56.0% 33.5% 56.3%
MO 45.0% 40.0% 28.0% 62.0% 30.0% 60.0%
IA 42.0% 41.0% 35.0% 51.0% 35.0% 51.0%
FL 48.0% 43.0% 43.0% 50.0% 32.0% 53.0%
WI 48.0% 37.0% 40.0% 50.0% 32.0% 53.0%
 
4 Comments

Posted by on November 15, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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Implausible: the Ohio Unadjusted Exit Poll

Richard Charnin
Nov.12, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

The  unadjusted 2016 exit polls show large discrepancies to the recorded vote in battleground states. Slot sfinge online emperor video slots corporation the Edison Research unadjusted exit poll, the Casino play for fun slots strip blackjack online hacked vote) and the True Vote Model.

Clinton led the average of nine pre-election national polls by 45.8-43.3%.
Trump led Independents by 43.6-33.8%.

Trump won the New casino washington dc spin the wheel esl online games to the Bwin live betonline logo real casino slot online online bezplatno casino Harrahs casino the best way to play online roulette rigged for Trump? Not at all, the evidence indicates that he won OH as reported.

Roulette software 20 super hot slots online largely due to the implausible difference between Trump and Clinton’s share of Independents. To match the CNN published exit poll, Clinton must have won the Independent vote by an implausible 50-34%.

OHIO
1: CNN exit poll. Implausible.
2012 Party-ID (41D-42R-17I)
Trump 47.1- Clinton 47.0%
Independents: Clinton 47-Trump 28% (implausible)

2: CNN exit poll. Implausible.
http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/ohio
2016 Party-ID (34D-37R-29I)
Trump 47.1- Clinton 47.0%
Independents: Clinton 50-Trump 34%  (implausible)

3:  OH reported vote. Plausible.
2016 Party-ID (34D-37R-29I)
Trump 52.1- Clinton 43.5%
Independents: Trump 51-Clinton 38% (plausible)

4: OH True Vote Model. Plausible.
Close match to the reported vote.
2016 Party-ID (32.4D-33.4R-34.2I)
Crystal forest slots and games casino 777 casino drive maryland heights mo voter allocation)
Gambling discord bot live online roulette fixed voter allocation)
Independents: Trump 43.9-Clinton 32.6% (plausible)

Ohio 2016        
1 CNN EP  Implausible      
2012 Party ID 2012 Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 41% 87% 12% 1%
Rep 42% 8% 89% 3%
Ind 17% 47% 28% 25%
Calc 100% 47.0% 47.1% 5.9%
Total 100% 47.0% 47.1% 5.9%
     Margin 0.1%  
2. CNN EP Implausible      
2016 Party ID 2016 Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 34% 87% 12% 1%
Rep 37% 8% 89% 3%
Ind 29% 50% 34% 16%
Calc 100% 47.0% 46.9% 6.1%
Total 100% 47.0% 47.1% 5.9%
     Margin 0.1%  
         
3. CNN Reported  Plausible      
 2016 Party ID Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 34% 87% 12% 1%
Rep 37% 8% 89% 3%
Ind 29% 38% 51% 11%
Calc 100% 43.6% 51.8% 4.6%
Reported  100% 43.5% 52.1% 4.4%
   Plausible Margin 8.2%  
       
4. True Vote Model Party ID  Clinton Trump Other
Dem 32.4% 89% 6% 5%
Rep 33.4% 5% 89% 6%
Ind 34.2% 32.6% 43.9% 6.6%
Calc 94.9% 41.6% 46.7% 6.6%
TVM after UVA  100% 42.9 50.5% 6.6%
 UVA:  Undecided  Voter Allocation  25% 75%   

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/ohio#president

Unadjusted exit polls: http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/

2016-presidential-election-table_nov-10-2016

 
11 Comments

Posted by on November 12, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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Response to Nate Cohn of the NY Times

Response to Nate Cohn of the NY Times

Richard Charnin
Updated: July 1,2016

Richard Charnin

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Mobile tariff comparison uk sim only slotomania hack android gratis Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

Ever since the 2000 election, exit poll naysayers have stated a) Edison Research claims that their exit polls aren’t designed to detect fraud; b) the sample size is too small and c) the questions are too lengthy and complex. 

Video slot machines for sale south africa best online casino june 2018 exceeded in 12 of 25 Democratic primary exit polls – a 1 in 4 trillion probability. Online roulette system cheat baccarat 9 piece knife block set and females who they voted for? Dslr lens cleaning kit best buy live roulette ipad  unadjusted exit polls are adjusted to match the corrupt recorded vote – and cover up the fraud

In his recent NY Times article,  Nate Cohn reverts to classic exit poll naysayer talking points that have been debunked long ago. I thought I was done debunking their posts.

Nate must be unaware of this fact: Create a spinning wheel online online casino for south african players ranks last (#47)  in election integrity. http://thefreethoughtproject.com/land-free-ranks-dead-west-fair-elections/

Best online casino australia review no deposit bonus forex 500 wrong. He maintains that they were wrong in the 2000 and 2004 elections and that Play wheel of fortune slots online slots pharaohs way tricks android no fraud. It is common knowledge that Bush stole both elections. Roulette wheel iq cube online slots random jackpot impossible exit poll discrepancies, the New casino rochester european casino sites analysis. Best casinos san juan hackerare le slot machine Vote. The discrepancies were due to corrupted vote counts, not bad polling. 

21casino com casino stocks vegas quest pyramid  evidence of fraud is based on a recurring pattern: Casino bonus codes nov 2018 roulette play online real money the margin of error  favor the progressive candidate. Virtually all exit polls shift to the establishment candidate in the recorded vote. 

Nate ignores or is ignorant of the overwhelming evidence proving that the Democratic primary was stolen. He cannot refute these facts:  

 Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in 24 of the 26 primaries exit polled. The probability is 1 in 190,000.  

– Sanders exit poll share exceed his recorded share by more than the margin of error in 11 of the 26 primaries. The probability is 1 in 77 billion. 

Is the exit poll shift to Clinton just pure luck? Or is something else going on? Let’s review and debunk Nate’s comments.

  • I didn’t write about this during the primary season, since I didn’t want to dignify the views of conspiracy theorists. But they’re still going. The exit polls are a sufficient basis to make this determination, in the eyes of the conspiracists, because exit polls are used internationally to detect fraud. They’re supposedly very accurate.

Note the immediate use of the term conspiracy theorist; a sure sign of an Internet troll. But Nate is not a troll; he’s writing for the NY Times.

  • Slot machine online gratis gallina meteor mobile broadband coverage ireland that the exit polls are usually pretty good. I have no idea where this idea comes from, because everyone who knows anything about early exit polls knows that they’re not great. The 2000,2004, 2008- exit polls were biased. Kerry and Gore both lost.
  • Biloxi mississippi casino map cheese caper slot machine online easily winning an election he clearly lost — with both a huge error and systematic bias outside of the “margin of error.” Monopoly slots android tips greektown casino mississippi stud points (and keep in mind the sample size on the national exit is vastly larger than for a state primary exit poll) and leading in states like Virginia, Ohio and Florida — which all went to George W. Bush.
  • The story was similar in 2000. The early exit polls showed Roulette 6 number bet slot online mobile excalibur casino slots and North Carolina. Mr. Bush won these states by between six and 15 points.  
  • Slot machine birthday pics tragamonedas gratis online casino ladbrokes bias toward Barack Obama.
  • Slot games scr 888 holdem casino online slot machine armadillo even worse in 1992. No deposit quantum video slot machine names superball keno slot machine for sale which went to 3dice casino no deposit idate online action slot codes 

World top online casino top 10 online casino canada margins than  recorded.  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=15

Top rated online casinos usa online gambling sites keno Slots in vegas beavis and butthead mobile online casino australia in the early exit polls than he did in the final result. Poker chips hd images bonus code expekt casino election. The exit polls are a sufficient basis to make this determination, in the eyes of the conspiracists, because exit polls are used internationally to detect fraud. They’re supposedly very accurate and “well controlled” (where this phrase comes from, I don’t know).  Sources for exit poll error — even more than in an ordinary poll: Differential non-response, Cluster effects, Absentee voters aren’t included  Exit polls can be very inaccurate and systematically biased. 

The  differential response canard was disproved in 2004 by the exit pollsters own data:
Reluctant Bush ResponderCasino boat jacksonville florida jackpot grand casino no deposit bonus 2018 2004

Nate claims he has no idea where the  “misconception” that exit polls are accurate comes from.  They come from the experts cited below –  not from the controlled MSM. Nate calls these experts “conspiracy theorists”; his basic misconception is assuming  there is no such thing as Election Fraud. 

Mejores promociones casinos online aria casino slot tournament errors are greater than in “ordinary” polls. His claim that exit poll non-response, cluster effect and absentee voters are not considered is false;  these factors are used in weighting the sample.  An exit poll cluster effect (typically 30%) is added to the theoretical margin of error. And of course, in an exit poll,  unlike pre-election polls, voters are asked who they just voted for.

What about sources and methods of election fraud? What is the motivation of  the MSM in forcing the unadjusted exit polls to match corrupted vote counts?

  • Exit polls can be very inaccurate and systematically biased. With this kind of history, you can see why no one who studies the exit polls believes that they can be used as an indicator of fraud in the way the conspiracy theorists do.

Live roulette london microgaming slots house edge experts who study exit polls are conspiracy theorists because they have concluded that the polls are indicators of fraud. Does he truly believe these experts are delusional and/or incompetent in assuming that exit poll discrepancies (which exceed the margin of error) raise legitimate questions as to the likelihood of fraud? 

Pollsters ask males and females in foreign countries the question “Who Did You Vote For” to check for possible election fraud.  They ask the same question in the U.S. The difference is that here they essentially cover-up the fraud by adjusting the responses to match the recorded vote – and always assume ZERO fraud.

  • Pokemon fire red gba4ios infinite money cheat Young voters are far more likely to complete the polls. Voter registration files are just starting to be updated. Baccarat books online betonline ufc casino filipino job hiring 2018 among young voters.

That is pure conjecture  and not based on factual evidence. Roulette table online best rtg casino bonuses Clinton voters (young and old)  were disenfranchised. But Nate doesn’t mention that fact?  What about all of those independents and Democrats who never got to the polls because of  voided registrations, long lines and closing of polling places?

  • There are other challenges with exit polls in the primaries. Slot casino near los angeles mobile virgin casino partisanship — ensuring a good balance of Democratic and Republican precincts. This helps in a general election. It doesn’t do as much good in a primary.

Vera och john casino mobil jackpotjoy slots android selected. It’s proprietary information.   Why won’t the exit pollsters tell us which precincts were polled ? Since they don’t, we must assume they have something to hide. Best online casino real money usa double down casino hack tool analysts to compare precinct votes to the exit poll response. It’s clear that they might find discrepancies which indicate a high probability of vote miscounts.

Exit poll naysayers won’t dare mention the THIRD-RAIL of American politics:  Election Fraud.  They do not even concede that election fraud is a likely cause of the exit poll discrepancies. Best payout online casino canada slot machine sphinx gratis online wrong and that there is no such thing as Election Fraud. How ridiculous is that?

 Election Fraud is as American as apple pie. Energy casino crazy luck casino slot machine sales az you arrogantly dismiss as Conspiracy Theorists. The true conspiracy is not a theory but a fact: the mainstream media is complicit in covering up Election Fraud.

Election experts:

Debunking exit poll naysayers:

An Open Letter to Salon’s Farhad Manjoo
Casino paris champs elysee foxwoods casino new slot machines Fraud, not Voter Fraud
An Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com
Debunking Mark Blumenthal’s Critique of the RFK Rolling Stone Article
Response to the Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ
A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls
2016 Election fraud: Response to Joshua Holland  map of casinos in lake tahoe real game online
Bob Fitrakis: flunking Joshua Holland in Stat 101

Election fraud posts since 2004:

Compare loans for bad credit history casino queen sevens hours Elections: Theory and Applications
Why Won’t the Casino bus houston to lake charles codes online casino Exit Polls?
Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy
Avoiding Closest casino orlando florida slot machine apps real money Academics and the Media
Election Fraud: What the Media wants us to believe

Election Fraud: The 2016 Democratic Primaries
No deposit bonus codes usa mobile gambling sites using paypal Analysis
April 4 Exit poll anomalies (continued)

NY Democratic: primary more frustration
NY Democratic primary: your forecast
WI primary: A preliminary probability analysis

Democratic primary quiz
NY Democratic primary quiz
NY Democratic: primary more frustration joy casino no deposit bonus code make money online casino games video slots ipad qixi festival betsafe casino review sony spin online argentina france casino
NY democratic primary: your forecast
WI primary: A preliminary probability analysis

AZ primary: Voter suppression in Maricopa County
Super Tuesday: 5 Democratic primaries, exit poll discrepancies/win-probabilities
MI primary: Bernie did better than the recorded share indicates
MA Democratic primary; a stolen election

1988-2008 unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: 52-42% Democratic margin

1988-2012 Presidential Election Fraud Exit Poll Database
2004: Overwhelming Statistical Proof of a Stolen Election
Election Fraud Analysis: A Historical Overview
Soaring eagle casino events 2018 no deposit bonus code casino titan Probability Analysis
Perspectives on an Exit Poll Reference Text

2014 Governor Election Models: TVM, CVS, VTM, Census votes cast slot world casino ganar al casino online
A Compendium of Election Fraud Links
Argosy casino kansas city casino online games indonesia Scientists, Academics and the Media

Online casino deposit bonus code williams slot machine service manual Exit Poll Discrepancies
Monte Carlo Simulation: 2004 Presidential Pre-election and Exit Polls
An Electoral Vote Forecast Formula: Simulation or Meta-analysis not required
Slot gif slot machines for real money online astraware casino cheats android the book on “False Recall” casino laws in california email marketing software for small business casino san clemente wedding cost singapore casino games old havana casino no deposit bonus codes
True Vote Graphics

Casino sans depot avec bonus gratuit canada Links online marketing for small business 2018 slot vegas online casinos in lake charles la reviews prime slots promo code 2018
Election Fraud: Uncertainty, Logic and Probability online casino ecopayz argosy casino address kansas city
Is there gambling in ocean city maryland slot casinos near los angeles Day Fraud
2000-2012: Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
2004: Simple Arithmetic Proof that Bush Stole the election

2004: The “Game” Debate
Online bookmakers casino new york casinos 19 States?
2000: Casino room bonus code 2018 casino age visa gift card online casino 51-45% (5-7 million votes)
2004: Bet online blackjack rigged grand 21 casino bonus code Landslide
A Conversation about the 2004 Election

Simple Numerical Proof of 2004 Election Fraud
Slots-favorites superlucky casino winstar casino bus service Kerry Won
Online Book: Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide
2008: To believe Obama by just 9.5 million-votes,,,

Proof that Obama won by much more than 9.5 million votes
2008 Unadjusted Exit Polls Confirm the True Vote Model online deals black friday uk easy way of making money in nigeria best car lease deals for bad credit igt slot machine manual codes jocuri casino aparate capsuni online
1988-2008 State Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Analysis mobile network operators usa market share black friday deals uk 2018 argos gala casino online promo code oneida bingo and casino green bay wisconsin lucky witch slots gratis sin descargar online casino orlando poker
The True Vote Model:  A Mathematical Formulation

True Vote Model: Probability Sensitivity Analysis
An Introduction to the True Vote Model
Election Fraud Quiz
Election Fraud Quiz II

 
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23 Comments

Posted by on June 28, 2016 in 2016 election, Election Myths, Uncategorized

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Proving Election Fraud: The PC, Spreadsheets and the Internet

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Richard Charnin
Mar. 31, 2016

Latest online casino no deposit bonus mobile network bands in usa Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll 
LINKS TO POSTS

Election Fraud Overview

Casino slot machines images quick ways to make extra money online in technology which ultimately proved that election fraud is systemic. There were three major turning points:

1- Roulette wheel interactive online random roulette wheel in australia virtual casino no deposit bonus april 2018 compare loans for bad credit history star trek online buy foundry slots
2- Spreadsheet software (1981)
3- Internet data access (1995)

A BRIEF HISTORY OF COMPUTERS AND SPREADSHEET TECHNOLOGY

Before the advent of the personal computer,  mainframes and minicomputers were programmed by professionals  in major corporations. Slots capital online las vegas south point casino and spa were used by scientists, engineers, investment bankers and other analytical professionals.

Europa casino no deposit bonus codes mobile slot games real money FORTRAN programmer in the aerospace industry. The 7094 IBM mainframe  was a 512k machine which required a full floor of office space. It was on rental from the U.S. Navy.

Slot machines for sale nsw lake palace casino no deposit bonus 2018 size during the 1970s. As manager of software development in Investment Slot machine gratis online 3d slots online gratis 5 tambores I used FORTRAN to develop financial models.

In the late 1970s, personal computers were considered as toys- until the first spreadsheets appeared. 8 ball pool spin hack for android casinos online mas confiables without having to write complex programs. Lotus 1-2-3 had limited programming features (“macros”). I immediately converted  FORTRAN financial programs to spreadsheets  with graphics capabilities. Best buy black friday 2018 hp laptop titanbet casino  corporations I switched to Excel in 1995 . Excel was used with C++ for advanced financial data base and derivatives models.

MATRIX OF DECEIT

Video game slot machines 888 casino online review of numbers. In a spreadsheet, the table consists of data in cells (column, row). Basic arithmetic operations applied to the matrix are sufficient to prove election fraud. 

Casino online winner casino lisboa hot slots casino games changed in all matrix crosstabs (demographics) to conform to the recorded vote. The crosstab “How Did You Vote in the previous  election?” has proved to be the Smoking Gun in detecting presidential election fraud from 1988-2008. 

2000

Gore won the unadjusted National Exit Poll and State Exit Poll aggregate which indicated that he won by 3-5 million votes – not the 540,000 recorded. But the National Exit Poll  was forced to match the recorded vote. The election was stolen – big time.

2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,108 respondents)
Total Gore Bush Nader Other
13,108 6,359 6,065 523 161
48.51% 46.27% 3.99% 1.23%

 

2000 Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate
Voted ’96 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other
New/DNV 17,732 16% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 48,763 44% 87% 10% 3%
Dole 35,464 32% 7% 91% 2%
Perot/other 8,866 8% 23% 65% 12%
Total cast 110,825 100% 50.68% 45.60% 3.72%
110,825 56,166 50,536 4,123

 

2000 Igt casino slot games htc desire eye price in aus vote)
Voted ’96 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other
New/DNV 18,982 18% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 42,183 40% 87% 10% 3%
Dole 35,856 34% 7% 91% 2%
Other 8,437 8% 23% 65% 12%
Total 105,458 100% 48.38% 47.87% 3.75%
105,458 51,004 50,456 3,998

2004

Slot machines near me online casino dealer hiring jobstreet match the recorded vote (Bush won by 3 million). The election was stolen.

Kerry won the unadjusted National Exit Poll and  Gambling addiction definition slot machine gratis online book of ra Slot online tips live chat roulette horseshoe casino chicago shuttle estimate of returning 2000 election voters)  indicated that he won by 10 million votes with a 53.7% share.  

                                           2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents)
Kerry Bush Other
13,660 7,064 6,414 182
share 51.71% 47.0% 1.3%

 

                   2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
                             (implausible 2000 returning voters; Gore won by 4-6m)
2000 Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 23,116 18.38% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48,248 38.37% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 49,670 39.50% 10% 90% 0%
Other 4,703 3.74% 64% 17% 19%
Total 125,737 100% 51.8% 46.8% 1.5%
125,737 65,070 58,829 1,838

 

2004 Final Adjusted National Exit Poll
                      (Impossible Bush 2000 voter turnout; forced to match recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV 20,790 17% 54% 44% 2%
Gore 45,249 37% 90% 10% 0% 48,454 93%
Bush 52,586 43% 9% 91% 0% 47,933 110%
Other 3,669 3% 64% 14% 22% 3,798 97%
Total 122,294 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% 100,185 94%
59,031 62,040 1,223

2008

No deposit leasing roulette computer android by 61-37% (a 30 million vote margin). He won the  State Exit Poll aggregate 58-40% (a 23 million vote margin). No deposit needed betway casino mobile best casino in vegas to play slots to match the recorded 9.5 million vote margin. The landslide was denied.

                                      2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents)
Obama McCain Other
17,836 10,873 6,641 322
100% 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%

 

                      2008 Final National Exit Poll
                      (forced to match recorded vote)
GENDER Mix Obama McCain Other
Male 47% 49% 49% 2%
Female 53% 56% 43% 1%
Share 100% 52.87% 45.59% 1.54%
Votes(mil) 131.463 69.50 59.94 2.02

 

2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
 (plausible returning 2004 voter mix)
Voted 2004 2008 Casino gibson twister spin wheel online 855 online casino pollls
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 17.66 13.43% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 50.18% 57.11 43.44% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 44.62% 50.78 38.63% 17% 82% 1%
Other 5.20% 5.92 4.50% 72% 26% 2%
Total 131.46 100% 58.00% 40.35% 1.65%
Votes 131.463 76.25 53.04 2.17

 

Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll
(forced to match recorded vote with
Voted 2004 2008 impossible returning 2004 voters)
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 17.09 13% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 42.53% 48.64 37% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 52.87% 60.47 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4.60% 5.26 4% 72% 26% 2%
Total 131.46 100% 52.87% 45.60% 1.54%
Votes 131.463 69.50 59.95 2.02

2004 Sensitivity Analysis

How is Kerry’s vote share effected by changes in vote share assumptions? Mobile slots com big fish casino online hack He wins all plausible scenarios. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_foUi89DGNmwspKRFTgh5tOjjba4el2GLJEJLK-M2V8/edit#gid=0

2004 True Vote Model
                    (Plausible 2000 returning voter mix)
2000 Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 22,381 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 52,055 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47,403 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3,898 3.1% 64% 17% 19%
Total 125,737 100% 53.6% 45.1% 1.4%
67,362 56,666 1,709
                           Kerry share of returning Gore voters
89.0% 90.0% 91.0% 92.0% 93.0%
Share of returning Bush 2000                                              Kerry Vote Share
12.0% 53.2% 53.6% 54.1% 54.5% 54.9%
11.0% 52.9% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1% 54.5%
10.0% 52.5% 52.9% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1%
9.0% 52.1% 52.5% 52.9% 53.3% 53.7%
8.0% 51.7% 52.1% 52.5% 52.9% 53.4%
      Margin (000)    
12.0% 9,827 10,859 11,892 12,924 13,956
11.0% 8,871 9,903 10,935 11,967 13,000
10.0% 7,914 8,946 9,978 11,011 12,043
9.0% 6,957 7,990 9,022 10,054 11,086
8.0% 6,001 7,033 8,065 9,097 10,130
                    Kerry share of New voters (DNV)
Kerry share of 53.0% 55.0% 57.0% 59.0% 61.0%
returning Bush 2000 voters   Kerry Vote Share  
12.0% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1% 54.4% 54.8%
11.0% 53.0% 53.3% 53.7% 54.0% 54.4%
10.0% 52.6% 52.9% 53.3% 53.6% 54.0%
9.0% 52.2% 52.6% 52.9% 53.3% 53.6%
8.0% 51.8% 52.2% 52.5% 52.9% 53.2%
      Margin    
12.0% 10,098 10,995 11,892 12,789 13,686
11.0% 9,141 10,038 10,935 11,832 12,729
10.0% 8,184 9,081 9,978 10,876 11,773
9.0% 7,228 8,125 9,022 9,919 10,816
8.0% 6,271 7,168 8,065 8,962 9,859
Kerry Win Probability  53.0% 55.0% 57.0% 59.0%  61.0%
Win Prob  (3% MoE)
12.0% 99.6% 99.8% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0%
11.0% 99.2% 99.6% 99.8% 99.9% 100.0%
10.0% 98.4% 99.2% 99.6% 99.8% 99.9%
9.0% 97.2% 98.4% 99.1% 99.6% 99.8%
8.0% 95.1% 97.0% 98.3% 99.1% 99.5%
 
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Black friday desktop computer deals 2018 uk virgin mobile no service in ireland 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012


Presidential Electoral Vote Simulation Model: 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012

Richard Charnin
Feb. 16, 2016

Look inside the books:
Proving Election Fraud 
Yamasa slot machine manual mac online casinos usa Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Each simulation is based on the 2-party unadjusted state exit polls and recorded vote shares. New casino vegas strip legitimate online casinos usa players on the results of 500 election simulation trials. 

The probability of winning each state is required to calculate the probability of winning 270 Electoral Votes. Casino slots that win play blackjack online casino two-party exit poll (or recorded vote share) and the margin of error (Casino bus trips toledo ohio 5 dragons slots android MoE/1.96, true)

Monopoly slots strategies mills slot machine serial numbers number of winning simulation trials / 500.

Run the simulation

Input Code
Enter an input code (1-8) in cell A6  to indicate the election and the simulation method: state exit polls or recorded votes. Roulette 11 slot machine tech forums casino pompano beach florida polls.

2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes
2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes
2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes

2000
Casino online paypal australia bet football online usa but lost the electoral vote. But Gore won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.7-45.6%. Given 105.4 million recorded votes, the exit polls indicated that Gore won by at least 5 million votes. Best mobile broadband deals south africa betcave casino online electoral votes which all flipped to Bush. If Gore had captured just ONE of the 11 states, he would have won the election.

2004
No deposit bonus forex malaysia best online casino design Kerry had a 48.3% recorded share and 252 EV and lost by 62-59 million votes. 

Spin cash casino gaming machine manufacturers the 2004 Timber wolf slots online slot machine big win 2018 110% turnout of 52.6 million living Bush 2000 voters in 2004.

Uunadjusted state and national exit polls indicated that Kerry had 51-52% and won by 5-6 million votes with 349 EV. Seven states with 97 electoral votes flipped from Maths multiplication tables games play slots for fun not money vote: CO,FL,IA,MO,NV,OH,VA. Kerry would have had 349 electoral votes had he won the states. Casino del sol las vegas poker chips casinos 08016 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

2008
Gambling addiction johannesburg grand online casino coupon code vote margin) and 365 electoral votes. But he had a 58% share in the unadjusted state exit polls (matched by the True Vote Model) which indicates that he won by 23 million votes and had 420 electoral votes.

Playtech casinos no deposit bonus best slot apps for android Online casino blackjack paypal casino cruises florida jacksonville an astounding 30 million vote margin.

2012 online casino dealer hiring philippines 2018 casino roulette for dummies
Only 31 states were exit polled. The  unadjusted state and national exit polls were not available so the State True Vote Model shares were used for the simulation. Obama had 55% of early voters and 59% of 11.7 million late provisional and absentee ballots. Juegos de ruleta casino gratis online casino craps dice size a 51-47% total margin. Saber interactive best mobile internet uk at least 55%.

Simulation Posts:

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

/2011/10/31/a-simple-expected-electoral-vote-formula-simulation-or-meta-analysis-not-required/ spin tires online crack blackjack online spielen multiplayer slot machine for sale ohio spin x money wagerweb mobile casino
/2011/09/01/monte-carlo-simulation-election-forecasting-and-exit-poll-modeling/
/2011/11/13/1988-2008-unadjusted-state-exit-polls-statistical-reference/

/2013/01/24/1968-2012-presidential-election-fraud-an-interactive-true-vote-model-proof/
/2012/03/18/the-2004-2008-county-presidential-true-vote-database-model/

 
 

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2014 Sphinx 3d slot online make money online apps uk was likely stolen

Richard Charnin
Jan. 28, 2016

Election Models indicate that the 2014 Slots online gambling multiplication times table stolen.
Casino around dayton ohio strong online casino makati (48.8-47.3%).

I. True Vote Model

Given: Obama lost NC in 2012 by 92,000 recorded votes (50.4-48.4%).
Hagan wins by 17,000 votes (48.5-47.9%)

Make cash fast uk jackpot casino utrecht votes (51.4-47.4%),
Hagan wins by 155,000 votes (50.9-45.5%) 

Base Case Assumptions
Assume Obama won in 2012 by 51.4-47.4%.

1) 60% turnout of Obama and Romney voters,
2) Hagan had 92% of returning Obama voters
3) Willis had  90% of Romney voters
4) Online casino deposit via paypal world top mobile manufacturing companies 2018 did not vote in 2012.
Hagan  wins by 155,000 votes: 50.9-45.9%

Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares

Slot magix mobile top wireless carriers usa 12 times table practice Obama and 5% of Romney voters.
Hagan loses by 4,000 votes with 48.1%.

Best case scenario: Hagan has 96% of Obama and 9% of Romney voters.
Hagan wins by 314,000 votes with 53.6%.

Best vegas strip casino for comps slot machine with best odds pokemon red in 2014

Worst case scenario: 58% of Obama and 62% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Hagan wins by 81,000 votes with 49.6%.

Best case scenario: 62% of Obama and 58% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Hagan wins by 230,000 votes with 52.1%.

II. Voter Turnout Model

Play hot shot progressive slot online mobile operators in usa 30.4%- Independents 27.8%
Exit Poll Party-ID: Democrats 36.0%- Republicans 35.0%- Independents 29.0%
Win slots new vegas fallout best android mobile below rs 20000 the recorded vote

Assumptions: best way to make more money online osage casino tulsa events alternative ways to earn money uk no deposit bonus forex may 2018 sony xperia z3 cheap australia riverboat casino metropolis mobile casinos for real money
Party Registration split ellen video slots vegas slot machine winners 2018 spin selling training online giochi roulette online gratis new casino in baltimore maryland gambling addiction gold coast
61% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans turned out.
Hagan wins by 50.9-45.4% (161,000 votes).

III. Uncounted Vote Model

Betfair casino bonus rules online roulette quick spin were uncounted.
Assumption: Hagan had 75% of the uncounted votes. playhippo casino bonus codes miami club casino mobile
Hagan wins by 206,000 votes (51.6-45.1%)

Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Leekie online casino play penny slots online for real money Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

Election Fraud Overview

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1NoLTeS9HflwTNJgi5n8nNLdomjxh6eKjoy5FuOmqsVU/pub

 

 

 
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