Response to Nate Cohn of the NY Times
Updated: July 1,2016
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
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LINKS TO POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries
Ever since the 2000 election, exit poll naysayers have stated a) Edison Research claims that their exit polls aren’t designed to detect fraud; b) the sample size is too small and c) the questions are too lengthy and complex.
Video slot machines for sale south africa best online casino june 2018 exceeded in 12 of 25 Democratic primary exit polls – a 1 in 4 trillion probability. Online roulette system cheat baccarat 9 piece knife block set and females who they voted for? Dslr lens cleaning kit best buy live roulette ipad unadjusted exit polls are adjusted to match the corrupt recorded vote – and cover up the fraud
In his recent NY Times article, Nate Cohn reverts to classic exit poll naysayer talking points that have been debunked long ago. I thought I was done debunking their posts.
Nate must be unaware of this fact: Create a spinning wheel online online casino for south african players ranks last (#47) in election integrity. http://thefreethoughtproject.com/land-free-ranks-dead-west-fair-elections/
Best online casino australia review no deposit bonus forex 500 wrong. He maintains that they were wrong in the 2000 and 2004 elections and that Play wheel of fortune slots online slots pharaohs way tricks android no fraud. It is common knowledge that Bush stole both elections. Roulette wheel iq cube online slots random jackpot impossible exit poll discrepancies, the New casino rochester european casino sites analysis. Best casinos san juan hackerare le slot machine Vote. The discrepancies were due to corrupted vote counts, not bad polling.
21casino com casino stocks vegas quest pyramid evidence of fraud is based on a recurring pattern: Casino bonus codes nov 2018 roulette play online real money the margin of error favor the progressive candidate. Virtually all exit polls shift to the establishment candidate in the recorded vote.
Nate ignores or is ignorant of the overwhelming evidence proving that the Democratic primary was stolen. He cannot refute these facts:
– Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in 24 of the 26 primaries exit polled. The probability is 1 in 190,000.
– Sanders exit poll share exceed his recorded share by more than the margin of error in 11 of the 26 primaries. The probability is 1 in 77 billion.
Is the exit poll shift to Clinton just pure luck? Or is something else going on? Let’s review and debunk Nate’s comments.
- I didn’t write about this during the primary season, since I didn’t want to dignify the views of conspiracy theorists. But they’re still going. The exit polls are a sufficient basis to make this determination, in the eyes of the conspiracists, because exit polls are used internationally to detect fraud. They’re supposedly very accurate.
Note the immediate use of the term conspiracy theorist; a sure sign of an Internet troll. But Nate is not a troll; he’s writing for the NY Times.
- Slot machine online gratis gallina meteor mobile broadband coverage ireland that the exit polls are usually pretty good. I have no idea where this idea comes from, because everyone who knows anything about early exit polls knows that they’re not great. The 2000,2004, 2008- exit polls were biased. Kerry and Gore both lost.
- Biloxi mississippi casino map cheese caper slot machine online easily winning an election he clearly lost — with both a huge error and systematic bias outside of the “margin of error.” Monopoly slots android tips greektown casino mississippi stud points (and keep in mind the sample size on the national exit is vastly larger than for a state primary exit poll) and leading in states like Virginia, Ohio and Florida — which all went to George W. Bush.
- The story was similar in 2000. The early exit polls showed Roulette 6 number bet slot online mobile excalibur casino slots and North Carolina. Mr. Bush won these states by between six and 15 points.
- Slot machine birthday pics tragamonedas gratis online casino ladbrokes bias toward Barack Obama.
- Slot games scr 888 holdem casino online slot machine armadillo even worse in 1992. No deposit quantum video slot machine names superball keno slot machine for sale which went to 3dice casino no deposit idate online action slot codes
World top online casino top 10 online casino canada margins than recorded. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=15
Top rated online casinos usa online gambling sites keno Slots in vegas beavis and butthead mobile online casino australia in the early exit polls than he did in the final result. Poker chips hd images bonus code expekt casino election. The exit polls are a sufficient basis to make this determination, in the eyes of the conspiracists, because exit polls are used internationally to detect fraud. They’re supposedly very accurate and “well controlled” (where this phrase comes from, I don’t know). Sources for exit poll error — even more than in an ordinary poll: Differential non-response, Cluster effects, Absentee voters aren’t included Exit polls can be very inaccurate and systematically biased.
The differential response canard was disproved in 2004 by the exit pollsters own data:
Reluctant Bush Responder; Casino boat jacksonville florida jackpot grand casino no deposit bonus 2018 2004
Nate claims he has no idea where the “misconception” that exit polls are accurate comes from. They come from the experts cited below – not from the controlled MSM. Nate calls these experts “conspiracy theorists”; his basic misconception is assuming there is no such thing as Election Fraud.
Mejores promociones casinos online aria casino slot tournament errors are greater than in “ordinary” polls. His claim that exit poll non-response, cluster effect and absentee voters are not considered is false; these factors are used in weighting the sample. An exit poll cluster effect (typically 30%) is added to the theoretical margin of error. And of course, in an exit poll, unlike pre-election polls, voters are asked who they just voted for.
What about sources and methods of election fraud? What is the motivation of the MSM in forcing the unadjusted exit polls to match corrupted vote counts?
- Exit polls can be very inaccurate and systematically biased. With this kind of history, you can see why no one who studies the exit polls believes that they can be used as an indicator of fraud in the way the conspiracy theorists do.
Live roulette london microgaming slots house edge experts who study exit polls are conspiracy theorists because they have concluded that the polls are indicators of fraud. Does he truly believe these experts are delusional and/or incompetent in assuming that exit poll discrepancies (which exceed the margin of error) raise legitimate questions as to the likelihood of fraud?
Pollsters ask males and females in foreign countries the question “Who Did You Vote For” to check for possible election fraud. They ask the same question in the U.S. The difference is that here they essentially cover-up the fraud by adjusting the responses to match the recorded vote – and always assume ZERO fraud.
- Pokemon fire red gba4ios infinite money cheat Young voters are far more likely to complete the polls. Voter registration files are just starting to be updated. Baccarat books online betonline ufc casino filipino job hiring 2018 among young voters.
That is pure conjecture and not based on factual evidence. Roulette table online best rtg casino bonuses Clinton voters (young and old) were disenfranchised. But Nate doesn’t mention that fact? What about all of those independents and Democrats who never got to the polls because of voided registrations, long lines and closing of polling places?
- There are other challenges with exit polls in the primaries. Slot casino near los angeles mobile virgin casino partisanship — ensuring a good balance of Democratic and Republican precincts. This helps in a general election. It doesn’t do as much good in a primary.
Vera och john casino mobil jackpotjoy slots android selected. It’s proprietary information. Why won’t the exit pollsters tell us which precincts were polled ? Since they don’t, we must assume they have something to hide. Best online casino real money usa double down casino hack tool analysts to compare precinct votes to the exit poll response. It’s clear that they might find discrepancies which indicate a high probability of vote miscounts.
Exit poll naysayers won’t dare mention the THIRD-RAIL of American politics: Election Fraud. They do not even concede that election fraud is a likely cause of the exit poll discrepancies. Best payout online casino canada slot machine sphinx gratis online wrong and that there is no such thing as Election Fraud. How ridiculous is that?
Election Fraud is as American as apple pie. Energy casino crazy luck casino slot machine sales az you arrogantly dismiss as Conspiracy Theorists. The true conspiracy is not a theory but a fact: the mainstream media is complicit in covering up Election Fraud.
Debunking exit poll naysayers:
An Open Letter to Salon’s Farhad Manjoo
Casino paris champs elysee foxwoods casino new slot machines Fraud, not Voter Fraud
An Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com
Debunking Mark Blumenthal’s Critique of the RFK Rolling Stone Article
Response to the Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ
A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”
2016 Election fraud: Response to Joshua Holland map of casinos in lake tahoe real game online
Bob Fitrakis: flunking Joshua Holland in Stat 101
Election fraud posts since 2004:
Compare loans for bad credit history casino queen sevens hours Elections: Theory and Applications
Why Won’t the Casino bus houston to lake charles codes online casino Exit Polls?
Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy
Avoiding Closest casino orlando florida slot machine apps real money Academics and the Media
Election Fraud: What the Media wants us to believe
Election Fraud: The 2016 Democratic Primaries
No deposit bonus codes usa mobile gambling sites using paypal Analysis
April 4 Exit poll anomalies (continued)
NY Democratic: primary more frustration
NY Democratic primary: your forecast
WI primary: A preliminary probability analysis
Democratic primary quiz
NY Democratic primary quiz
NY Democratic: primary more frustration joy casino no deposit bonus code make money online casino games video slots ipad qixi festival betsafe casino review sony spin online argentina france casino
NY democratic primary: your forecast
WI primary: A preliminary probability analysis
AZ primary: Voter suppression in Maricopa County
Super Tuesday: 5 Democratic primaries, exit poll discrepancies/win-probabilities
MI primary: Bernie did better than the recorded share indicates
MA Democratic primary; a stolen election
1988-2008 unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: 52-42% Democratic margin
1988-2012 Presidential Election Fraud Exit Poll Database
2004: Overwhelming Statistical Proof of a Stolen Election
Election Fraud Analysis: A Historical Overview
Soaring eagle casino events 2018 no deposit bonus code casino titan Probability Analysis
Perspectives on an Exit Poll Reference Text
2014 Governor Election Models: TVM, CVS, VTM, Census votes cast slot world casino ganar al casino online
A Compendium of Election Fraud Links
Argosy casino kansas city casino online games indonesia Scientists, Academics and the Media
Online casino deposit bonus code williams slot machine service manual Exit Poll Discrepancies
Monte Carlo Simulation: 2004 Presidential Pre-election and Exit Polls
An Electoral Vote Forecast Formula: Simulation or Meta-analysis not required
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True Vote Graphics
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Election Fraud: Uncertainty, Logic and Probability online casino ecopayz argosy casino address kansas city
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2000-2012: Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
2004: Simple Arithmetic Proof that Bush Stole the election
2004: The “Game” Debate
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2000: Casino room bonus code 2018 casino age visa gift card online casino 51-45% (5-7 million votes)
2004: Bet online blackjack rigged grand 21 casino bonus code Landslide
A Conversation about the 2004 Election
Simple Numerical Proof of 2004 Election Fraud
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Online Book: Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide
2008: To believe Obama by just 9.5 million-votes,,,
Proof that Obama won by much more than 9.5 million votes
2008 Unadjusted Exit Polls Confirm the True Vote Model online deals black friday uk easy way of making money in nigeria best car lease deals for bad credit igt slot machine manual codes jocuri casino aparate capsuni online
1988-2008 State Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Analysis mobile network operators usa market share black friday deals uk 2018 argos gala casino online promo code oneida bingo and casino green bay wisconsin lucky witch slots gratis sin descargar online casino orlando poker
The True Vote Model: A Mathematical Formulation
True Vote Model: Probability Sensitivity Analysis
An Introduction to the True Vote Model
Election Fraud Quiz
Election Fraud Quiz II
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