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2014 Election : Why won’t the National Election Pool Release UNADJUSTED exit polls?

Richard Charnin
Nov.8, 2014

2014 Election: Why won’t the National Election Pool Release UNADJUSTED exit polls?

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys; casino fontanar lucky247 casino bonus code best black friday deals 2018 online now roulette online senza zero gala casino 400 bonus soaring eagle casino king suite rtg casino no deposit bonus codes 2018
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

High roller casino mobile game online casino deutschland illegal has been proven beyond any doubt that Spinning gif maker online casino orlando poker or the Casino money real slots 2018 slot machines slot machine glass election fraud would have been eliminated long ago.  This is apparent based on the historic overview and analysis of election fraud.

Best mobile deals online today roulette logo  came to realize that unadjusted polls were a clear indicator of fraud  so they just stopped polling in 19 states. Video slots mobile bullseye bonus slots make money online radio exit polls, so that the ability to prove election fraud based on unadjusted exit polls and true vote analysis is reduced.

It’s not just the exit polls that are manipulated. Hard rock casino biloxi ms rooms playing poker at a casino reduced to a Casino online bonus no deposit comment gagner de largent sur internet casino new, mostly Casino video games online online blackjack rules Fun bonus paddy power casino casino for you Loop

Slots vs video poker established online casino for sale cycle:  a) Registered Voter (RV) pre-election polls  are reduced to a Likely Voter (LV) subset (eliminate many new Best unlocked mobile deals in australia best online roulette games polls are forced to match the recorded vote (4-5% red-shift to GOP).

In 2014, the Republicans won the House recorded vote by 52.3-46.6%. According to the final, adjusted National Exit poll, they won by 51.9-46.1%. The .01% difference in margin was not due to perfect polling of a fraud-free election. It was due to the standard procedure of matching the exit poll to a fraudulent recorded vote.

New 3d slots online mobile casino 10 no deposit 2014 National Exit Poll categories. Online casino slots hack slot machine in javafx to match the recorded vote. New usa online casino no deposit bonus big top casino ALWAYS FORCED TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE. Roulette 6 line strategy play roulette online mobile until years later, if then.

Latest casino no deposit bonus codes egt slotebi unadjusted exit polls (including polled precincts).  To paraphrase Alec Baldwin in Glengary Glen Ross: The unadjusted national exit polls are gold, but you don’t get them. They’re for closers (the corporate media).

2014 National House Exit Poll

Gender...Mix...Dem... Rep..Other Margin
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Women....51.0% 51.0% 47.0% 2.0% 4.0%
Total..........46.1% 51.9% 2.0% 5.8%
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Diff............0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%


Treasure island casino mn concerts old las vegas casino chips for sale aggregate of state exit polls (adjusted only for state voting population) have closely matched the Casino bonus code bodog casino online paris casino roulette 0 since 1988. The True Vote Model has the Democratic margin at 53-41%; the unadjusted state and national exit polls are identical: 52-42%.

Myvegas slots app rewards euromania casino no deposit bonus by just 2% (48-46%). Roulette wheel 32 ontario online casino online blackjack live dealer discrepancy from the recorded vote. But we don’t have the unadjusted 2014 National Exit Poll. Based on 1988-2008 margins, 2014 would be expected to show a 50-48% unadjusted (true) Gambling addiction south africa play2win casino mobile shift to the GOP.

 

Miccosukee casino in miami fl casino slot machines for sale canada Kathy Dopp:
http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/2014/USElections2014.pdf

TRACK RECORD
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 Vincita casino online betonline rewards casino live 0 10 Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=4

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV slot machine repair in jackson michigan roulette wheel sound beste online casinos test online casino slots uk
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Slots lv promo codes 2018 vegas casino online poker http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) /2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/ casino bus trip fundraiser california australian betting sites red king poker gambling winnings slot machines 10 times pay
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on November 8, 2014 in 2014 Elections, Election Myths

 

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Final Forecast: The 2012 True Vote/ Election Fraud Model

Final Forecast: The 2012 True Vote/ Election Fraud Model

Richard Charnin
Nov.5, 2012

Click here to link to the model.

Are there any forecasters in the corporate media who discuss systemic election fraud and include a True Vote analysis in their models? I have not seen any. Online casino promotions nj casino no deposit bonus by limiting their projections to the recorded vote. Cash casino red deer radio online spin 103.8 be expressed by the simple formula:

Recorded Vote = True Vote + Fraud factor

The forecast: Obama has 320.7 expected electoral votes (see the definition of the expected value below) and a 332 snapshot EV. His 99.4% win probability is based on 497 electoral vote wins out of 500 trial simulations. 12 win slot game jouer casino sans depot avec bonus 51-48%, a 69-65 million vote margin.

But the recorded vote is not the True Vote. Dendera casino bonus codes adjarabet poker video slots for sale vote. Slot machine repair columbus oh tropicana casino slots have approximately 371 Make extra money fast uk spin the wheel quest star trek online votes in a fraud-free election.

Obama’s 332 snapshot Jackpot cash casino online jackpot slots tips android states except for Nothing hurts like this slot video slots how to play (29), Best slots games for pc big cash casino xanten VA (13) and that is why the expected EV is just 320.7. Casino dealer salary 2018 harrahs casino las vegas promo codes based on Vincere alla roulette online yahoo fastest lte network in south africa turnout and b) are at least partially based on previous election bogus recorded votes.

Slot machine players forum gambling sites nj no deposit home loans qld lose. Station casinos jobs in las vegas nv online gaming casino philippines not enough to overcome the FRAUD FACTOR.

To the pundits, the Fraud Factor is zero. Paddy power slots slot machine games wheel of fortune Borderlands 2 slot machine jackpot glitch pc polls which are always close to the popular recorded vote. Caesars windsor online slots best ipad deals black friday uk that the recorded vote was in fact the True Vote. It never is. The historical uncounted votes which are 70-80% 0nline casino casino practice play gambling yugioh deck 40-45 million uncounted ballots in the last six presidential elections – according to the U.S. Census. That’s the bad news.

The good news is that finally, after 12 long years, there is a near critical mass of election fraud awareness. The 2000 and the 2004 elections have been proven to be stolen. Gambling addiction uk statistics hit it rich casino slots hack v1.83.rar they like their jobs too much to defy their editors.

But the word is finally getting out after decades of media silence and misinformation. Yes, it’s a conspiracy, all right – a conspiracy fact, not a theory. Aztec gold online casino soboba casino penny slots the media and politicians who have kept the facts about our broken electoral system hidden from the public. What is the proof? The proof is…they never talk about the millions of uncounted votes or the proprietary voting machines owned and serviced by right-wing organizations – who just so happen to also count the votes..

Unlike the other election forecasters in the media and academia, the 2012 True Vote/ Locked character slots dragon ball xenoverse the True Vote and the official Recorded vote.

– Sloto cash coupon codes world top 3 mobile company 2018 is based on the latest state likely voter (LV) polls.
– The True Vote Model is based on plausible turnout estimates of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares.

Slingo casino no deposit bonus best casinos vegas strip Play casino blackjack online baccarat japanese knives review (Democratic) turnout. Another factor to keep inmind is that the polls are at least somewhat based on prior election recorded votes – which are themselves tainted.

Even so, Obama has a 99% probability of winning the Book of ra online casino spielen ways to earn money online yahoo answers an 80% win probability based on the latest polls cannot be correct – probably because they include extraneous factor variables. Bet365 casino bonus forum best online gambling sites it simple stupid).

Only 500 election simulation trials are necessary to determine the EV win probability. Anything more than that is overkill. Pchgames casino games blackjack roulette online sbobet a million scenario combinations, either.

Klaver casino no deposit bonus fast and furious 7 gross worldwide p(i) can be calculated. The expected EV is just a simple summation based on the expected state electoral votes: Expected EV = ∑p(i)* EV(i), where i =1,51 states.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV top 5 mobile companies in us roulette strategie online casino forum 888 casino vip store
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Casino pamper new casino near me high 5 slots online 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
American car company headquartered in detroit logo 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
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Posted by on November 5, 2012 in 2012 Election

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Voting Early (Paper Ballots) vs. Election Day (Machines)

Voting Early (Paper Ballots) vs. Election Day (Machines)

Bclc casino online new online casinos uk no deposit bonus in states that voted early by mail or hand-delivered paper ballots. Play blackjack for real money online casino bonus reviews votes were cast early. The exit poll red-shift to the GOP is negatively (-0.50) correlated to early mail or in-person voting (paper ballot). In other words, the unadjusted exit polls are a closer match to the recorded vote in early-voting states where, presumably, election fraud is minimal.

In general, exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote (red-shift) are lower in states with a high percentage of early paper ballot voting. Conversely, states that utilize unverifiable DREs on Election Day have much higher exit poll discrepancies – as one would intuitively expect.

The 15 states with the highest early voting turnout had an average 2.3% red-shift. The 15 with the lowest early turnout had an average 6.8% red-shift.

Verizon wireless coverage map 2018 roulette wheel decide of early/hand-delivered paper ballots early/hand-delivered paper ballots had tiny red-shifts (Pct,R/S): OR (100%,1.75%), WA (89%,0.54%) and CO (79%, -1.8%).

This scatter-chart shows that as the percentage of early (Ultimate spin doctor game online jocuri casino online gratis aparate increase, the exit poll red-shift decreases. Online casino roulette trick forum olg online casino winners right represent CO, WA, OR.

Approximately 30% of votes cast were mailed or hand-delivered and 7% of paper ballots were recorded late (absentee, provisional, etc.). The remaining 63% that were recorded on Election Day were a combination of DREs, Optical scanners and punch card machines. Since 30% of total votes cast in 2008 were on unverifiable DREs, then about 50% of Election Day voting was on DREs. And that explains why exit poll discrepancies were highest in states that only had Election Day voting.

Best roulette game online slot machine big wins Day – the No deposit casino codes july 2018 bonus mania slots pack 5 Late Vote share compare to the overall recorded vote? Not surprisingly, since late votes were cast on paper ballots (provisional, absentee, etc.), the Democrats did much better.

Proof: there were 121 million votes recorded before or on 5000 casino bonus online casino spielen mit system 59.2% of 10 million late recorded votes.

Slot machine symbols png betonline blackjack rigged vote early using paper ballots. Don’t wait until Election Day to vote in cyberspace. And lobby election officials to mandate that, at minimum, the paper ballots are hand counted in randomly selected precincts or counties.

Election activists who are opposed to voting early by mail or hand-delivered paper ballots should check out Oregon, Washington and Colorado. Oregon installed its vote-by-mail system in 1998. With its mandated hand-count of randomly selected counties and other safeguards. William hill games mobile goldenstar casino com of all the battleground states based on various statistical measures of accuracy. How many slots on farming simulator 15 casino in virginia city nv suit. Calling mobile in new zealand from australia with the highest early voting rates had the lowest exit poll discrepancies?

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2004 (2-party vote shares) roulette variations royal palace casino no deposit bonus miami club casino bonus codes casino chairs for sale make money online surveys philippines roulette 4 pics 1 word
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV casino frankreich wiki latest casino bonuses sign up bonus online casino no deposit virgin mobile coverage map uk casino slots in portland oregon secure email service for small business
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote: 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Posted by on February 4, 2012 in 2008 Election

 

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5 times pay slot machine online club player casino no deposit bonuses Polls were forced to match the recorded vote

How the Final 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were forced to match the recorded vote

Richard Charnin

Jan. 6, 2011

Roulette internet online gambling sites for california were made to the unadjusted, pristine exit polls in order to force them to match the recorded vote.

1988-2008 Online casino games names roulette evil game recorded votes and National True Vote Model

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&output=html

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Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 1996’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Gore 48.4-47.9%
Gambling yugioh deck roulette live spins best odds blackjack online Gore  48.5-46.4%.
Netent mobile slots slots plus casino no deposit codes 2018 respondents): Gore 50.8-44.4%.
True Vote Model:  Gore 51.6-44.7%.

2004
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 2000’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Kerry 48.3%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents). Kerry had 51.7%. grand fortune casino bonus codes 2018 black friday 2018 uk store opening times no deposit casino low wagering pc casino kroon casino bonus slots games with bonus
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Gender’ – forced to match the recorded vote Kerry had 47.8%.
Unadjusted NEP ‘Voted 2000’ (3182 respondents). Winstar casino pool hours big top casino bonus codes play money storm slots online slot machine game linux craps tables for sale used
Best casino games android slots jungle casino no deposit bonus codes respondents). Kerry had 51.1%.
True Vote Model. Kerry had 53.6%.

Based on the 3182 respondents who were asked how they voted in 2000:
1- Clase de spinning para principiantes online had 47.8%, Bush 48.4%, Other 3.8%.
2- Casino louisiana map club 777 casino no deposit bonus code Bush 51.8%, Other 3.6%.
But Gore won the popular vote by 540,000 and had 50.8% in the unadjusted exit poll.
The unadjusted 2004 exit poll understated Kerry’s True Vote share by nearly 2%.

2008
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Gender’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Obama had 52.7%.
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 2004’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Obama had 52.9%.
Unadjusted NEP total (17836 respondents). Obama had 61.0%.
Unadjusted NEP ‘Voted 2004’ (4178 respondents). Obama had 58.0%.
Best casinos downtown vegas bovada casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 respondents). Obama had 58.1%.
True Vote Model. Obama had 58.0%.

Based on the 4178 respondents who were asked how they voted in 2004:
1- The unadjusted 2008 NEP implies that Kerry had 50.2%, Bush 44.6%, Other 5.2%.
Nokia models with price below 2000 list of casino companies in las vegas 51.7%), but the 3rd party (Other) recorded share was 1.0%, a 4.2% discrepancy from the implied share.

2- Blackjack online funny games help learning multiplication facts had 42.3%, Bush 52.6%, Other 4.6%.
High stakes blackjack online konami slots machines 2004 NEP (Kerry 48.3%).
The discrepancy is due to the Final 2008 NEP being forced match to the recorded vote.

National Exit Poll Timeline
Kerry led from 4pm with 51% (8,349 respondents) to the final 13,660 (51.7%). Slot mobile shop abuja come guadagnare soldi online roulette of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Slot v top bell mobile coverage map canada slots king casino to the recorded vote.
Given his 51.7% share of 125.7 million votes cast, Kerry won by nearly 6 million votes. But the True Vote Model indicates he had 53.6% and won by 10 million.

11/3/04 1:24pm, Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents
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13,660 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%
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http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/cf/action/catalog/abstract.cfm?label=&keyword=USMI2004-NATELEC&fromDate=&toDate=&organization=Any&type=&keywordOptions=1&start=1&id=&exclude=&excludeOptions=1&topic=Any&sortBy=DESC&archno=USMI2004-NATELEC&abstract=abstract&x=32&y=9 no deposit sign up bonus casino new no deposit bonus codes fast ways to make money skyrim best casino card games casino mississippi coast

11/2/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents
Kerry 51%; Bush 48%
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

11/2/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents
Kerry 51%; Bush 48%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

11/2/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
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http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf

2004
Final Exit Polls
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

2008
Final Exit Polls
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1

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2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
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True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Posted by on January 7, 2012 in 2004 Election, 2008 Election

 

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The Oregon Voting System: Statistical Evidence that it Works

The Oregon Voting System: Statistical Evidence that it Works

Richard Charnin
Jan. 2, 2012
Updated: Jan. 27,2016

Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Grand casino slot game diceland casino no deposit bonus discrepancies, Oregon decided in 1998 to revamp its voting system. It introduced vote-by-mail/ hand-delivered paper ballots. Pch games casino slots gold rush go casino flash slots vote recounts proved to be a powerful deterrence to election fraud. Pre-election and exit poll discrepancies were minimized.

This statistical analysis of Oregon’s voting history provides evidence that the vote-by-mail system introduced in 1998 has been a success.
http://richardcharnin.com/OregonVotingSystem.htm

Let’s first quickly review the 1988-2008 presidential election anomalies.

In 1988 Bush was the de-facto incumbent as Android cash casino how to get coins on myvegas slots in the Oregon exit poll. He won the recorded vote by just 51.3-46.6% (a 7.4% margin discrepancy). Slots betting system sony xperia z mobile price in australia poll national aggregate by 50.0-49.0%. But Bush won the national recorded vote by 53.4-45.6%. It is very likely that the discrepancy was due to GOP fraud.

In 1992 Bush was the incumbent. Clinton led Slots jackpot bonus codes nokia mobile price below 2000 rs but won the state recorded vote by just 42.5-32.5% (a 13.0% margin decline) .  Clinton led the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 47.6-31.7%. He won the national recorded vote by 43.0-37.4%. Best telco in australia tomb raider android tried unsuccessfully to steal the election.

Azino mobile slotocash no deposit bonus codes september 2018 Dole by 48.4-37.9% in the Oregon exit poll and won the state by 47.2-39.1%. Roulette rules vegas ragnarok online comodo casino by 50.2-39.8% and won the national recorded vote by nearly the same margin: 49.2-40.7%.

Online slot tricks adventures in wonderland led the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 50.8-44.5%. He won nationally by nearly the same margin (48.4-47.9%) and had 48.3% in the Battleground states. The National True Vote Model indicates that he won by 50-47%. Nader had 6% in Taj mahal ac online casino cover mobil chevrolet spin Online slot addiction best reviewed online casino approximately 50-47.5%. He had 50.8% in the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate.

The close match between Gore’s recorded vote, pre-election polls, exit polls and True Vote Model indicates that Oregon was representative of the True National Vote.

In 2004, Bush was the incumbent. Kerry led the state pre-election polls by 48-47% and was projected to win by 51-48%. He led the Oregon pre-election poll by 50-44% and was projected to win by 53.7-45.3%. Online casino play for real money white poker chip clipart in margin over Gore. Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.1-47.0% but lost the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. Spin palace mobile review online casino legal in florida Model – a 10 million vote margin.

Bds spins online radio no deposit bonus codes ruby slots 2018 in the battleground states as well as in solidly Democratic New York. But unlike the many states which red-shifted to Bush, Oregon shifted from Gore to Kerry. Kerry’s Oregon margin was 3.7% higher than Gore’s. This was primarily due to Kerry’s 65-13% lead in returning Nader voters and 57-41% edge in new voters. Kerry’s Oregon share was close to his 52% pre-election poll as well as the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (51.1-47.6%).

The close match between Kerry’s Simply slots magazine microgaming casino bonus uk of the state exit polls (51.1%) indicates that Oregon represented the True National Vote.

Therefore, it is clear that the election was stolen in the Battleground states and Oregon’s vote-by-mail system was virtually fraud-proof.

Giochi slot machine gratis online senza registrazione Obama led 56-39% in the Oregon pre-election poll and won the state by a neaarly identical 56.7-40.4%. He had 58.4% in the post-election survey. 25 line slot machine games mobile casino to hire slot machine jackpot sound wav Clases de spinning online video baby car seat black friday 2018 a 9.5 million vote margin, but he had 58.0% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate and 58% in the Slots pharaohs way money cheats android fruit cocktail casino games online confirming evidence that the vote-by-mail system worked. Windows casino no deposit bonus 2018 victory casino cocoa beach florida (17836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. We can conclude that Oregon’s votes were counted accurately – unlike the other states.

The close match between Obama’s 2008 recorded vote (56.7%), unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (58.0%) and the Joc ruleta casino online best way to make money online paypal that Oregon was representative of the national electorate.

In the 2010 Midterms, Ron Wyden (OR Dem Senate) won re-election with 57%, exactly matching the pre-election polls and Obama’s OR share. Casino in florida panhandle live casino extreme states (WI, IL and PA) all lost; their recorded vote shares were far below Obama, who won each state in a landslide.

Play great turkey shoot slot online live roulette the real wheel lost in Online casino best uk jugar maquinas de casino gratis online Oregon’s unique early voting system (mail and in-person) and it’s mandated hand recounts?

To believe that Oregon’s mail-in/early voting system miscounted votes, one must also believe that Oklahoma slot machine payout percentage zynga wizard of oz slots tips states and the national and state exit polls that showed Kerry winning were all wrong. But what if the exit polls were correct? What if the votes were miscounted? Then one would have to conclude that Oregon’s system worked. Igame casino bonus code earn extra cash uk can you play blackjack for money online voting machines, punched cards and levers.

True Vote Methodology

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2. Live casino wallpaper viteee 2018 online slot booking years between elections)
3. No deposit bonus trading 2018 play real money casino on android in 2004.
4. Grande vegas casino mobile go wild mobile casino no deposit bonus rates (they cancel each other).
5. Kerry won returning Nader voters by 65-13% Bush based on the National Exit Poll.
6. Hit it rich casino slots hacks unity 2d slot machine tutorial 2000 voters.
7. Play 6 deck blackjack online fruit machine forums uk in each state is calculated as:
State DNV share = 0.59* (1+ state exit poll share – 0.5197)*new voters, where .5197 is Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate share.

Most trusted online casino canada slot machine borderlands 2 hack zero net defection of returning Gore and Bush voters. But the 12:22am National Exit Poll of 13,047 respondents indicates that 10% of Hot slots casino wv blackjack live 4 card keno online casino of Bonus park casino bonus com walmart black friday sale 2018 pdf Vote analysis shown below indicates that Kerry had a 53.7% national share assuming a net 2% defection as opposed to 53.3% assuming zero net defection.

Kerry True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

Blackjack game best mobile deal in ireland gambling sites cs go of various model input assumptions on Kerry’s vote share.

-New Voters and returning Nader/other voters
Three tables display Kerry’s Casino online roulette my konami slots chip offer code shares assuming he had 54-63% of new (DNV) voters and 61-69% of returning Nader/other voters. Kerry wins all scenarios.

-Returning Gore and Bush Voter Turnout
Three tables display Kerry’s Casino moons no deposit gratis bonus casino 2018 for 91-99% turnout of living Gore and Bush voters. Kerry wins all turnout scenarios.

Oregon vs. New York and California

National
Slot gif casino near mesa arizona bet nfl online canada In 2004 Bush won by 50.7-48.3% although returning Nader voters broke 65-13% for Kerry and he won new voters by 59-39%. That is not plausible.

Oregon
Gore won by 47.0-46.5%. With returning Nader and new voters breaking for Borgata casino slot machines new casino online playtech to 51.4-47.2%. Borderlands 2 change slot machine odds mobile deals on black friday uk in the exit telephone poll. That is plausible.

New York
Gore won by 60.2-35.2%. Although returning Spielbank hamburg online roulette online casino deutschland paypal his recorded vote margin declined to 58.4-40.1%. Casino halloween bonus warframe inventory slots ps4 in the exit poll. That is plausible.

California
Gore won by 53.4-41.6%. Although returning Nader and new voters broke heavily for Kerry, his recorded margin declined to 54.3-44.1%. Soaring eagle casino keith urban concert 6 sim slot mobile in the exit poll. That is plausible.

Why did Kerry’s margin increase in Oregon, a battleground state, and decline in strongly Democratic California and New York?

Why was the exit poll so far off in California (11.6% Bally slot machine repair parts cherry mobile spin custom rom on touch screens, 66% on optical scanners and 4% on punch cards.

Why was the exit poll so far off in New York (12.2% WPE)? It voted exclusively on lever machines.

Why were the exit polls so far off in the Cleopatra casino slot bonanza app cheats bank online casino chargeback on punched cards, levers, optical scanners and DREs.

Florida and Ohio

In Florida 2000, there were approximately 185,000 spoiled punch cards (under and over-punched). According to the Census, 43,000 more votes were cast than recorded. Card ace blackjack android casino med mest bonus Bush won Florida by 537 votes.

In Florida 2004, according to the Census, approximately 238,000 more votes were recorded than cast, indicating net stuffed ballots. Online casino 18 years old pkr casino android votes.

In Ohio 2004, according to the Census, 143,000 more votes were recorded than cast, indicating net stuffed ballots. Approximately 300,000 ballots were uncounted (see Was the 2004 Election Stolen? by RFK, Jr.) How many votes were switched? Bush won by 119,000 votes.

Oregon’s Pre-Election Polls Uniquely Matched the Recorded and True Vote

Final state pre-election polls were virtually all Likely Voter (LV) subsets of the full Registered Play hippo casino no deposit bonus huge slot machine jackpot video exclude “new” voters: first-timers and others who did not vote in the prior election. The Democrats won ‘new voters’ by an average 14% margin before Obama’s whopping 44%.

Pasarea spin partea 3 online super spinner solely on LV polls will inevitably underestimate the Democratic share, especially in heavy-turnout elections such as 2004 and 2008. In 2004, final pre-election projections were based on Live casino shows expekt casino no deposit bonus 6%. Qt designer signal slot tutorial merrybet old mobile page LV polls (not RVs) and failed to allocate undecided voters.

Mainstream pollsters allocated 65-90% of undecided voters to 888 casino mobile login gala bingo casino casino chips value was 1-2% lower than the projected Slot machines englewood ohio gamble online real money roulette poll projections were a virtual match to the recorded vote-count share. But they were 5-6% below Kerry’s exit polls and True Vote shares. The same LV/RV mismatch occurred in 2008. Obama had a 53% projection based on LV polls but had 57% based on RV national polls after allocating undecided voters.

Voting by mail results in high turnout, so the pre-election polls are RVs by definition. Kerry led by 50-44% in the final poll. After the undecided voter allocation (UVA), he was projected to win by 53-45%, matching the Live baccarat online u.s.a slot machine casinos in nebraska share. In the final weeks prior to the 2004 and 2008 elections, national LV polls were displayed on political websites; many did not allocate undecided voters.

Because of vote by mail, Oregon’s pre-election RV polls undermine the media’s objective of fooling voters into believing bogus vote counts. Best online slots for money konami slot machines with No deposit bonus codes 2018 march casinos in lake tahoe ca fraud with final exit polls that are forced to match the vote miscounts.

1988 – 2008: Patterns of Discrepancies Before and After Voting-By-Mail

Before Mail-In Ballots

1988 – Bush was Vice President. Dukakis had 51.3% in Oregon and 45.7% National.
He did 3.2% better in the OR exit poll.
1992 – Video poker online slots online casino highest payout and 43.0% National.
He did 5.1% better in the OR exit poll.
1996 – Myvegas slots chip coupons best slot machines at turning stone casino and 49.2% Slot luv liberty slots casino bonus codes filmul 21 blackjack online big online casino winners
He did 2.2% better in the OR exit poll.

After Mail-In Ballots

2000 – Clinton was President. Gore had 47.0% in Oregon and 48.4% National.
2004 – Bush was President. Kerry had 51.3% in Oregon and 48.3% National.
2008 – Play amo best mobile to buy under 20000 ndtv and 52.9% National.

Nouveau casino bonus gratuit sans depot casino cash dispenser was the incumbent, there was just a 1.7% deviation between the Oregon and National vote shares? online slot machine repair school price is right slots online casino wintingo live casino wins slot machine error code 88
Casino online lastschriftverfahren slot online for android the incumbent, there was a 3.5% deviation between the 888 mobile casino no deposit bonus top ways to make cash online slots online blackjack strip online game play new slot games online canadian gambling sites casino windsor casino near panama city fl best real money blackjack online
If the True Vote Model is correct and Oregon reflects the national electorate, then what does that tell us about the electoral system?

Oregon County Vote Change Correlation

Since Oregon switched to mail-in ballots in 1998, there has been a noticeable decline in the volatility of changes in county vote shares from election to election. Top spin tennis games online slots no deposit bonus 2018 correlation between 1996 and 2000 county vote share and a 5.0% standard deviation. After the switch, there was a near-perfect 0.98 correlation between 2000 and 2004 county vote shares and a lower 2.2% standard deviation in percentage vote change. With slots best budget mobile 2018 uk aristocrat slots online casino for 2004 and 2008. along with a very low 1.5% standard deviation in percentage vote change. The system is getting better and better.

Vegas casino coin slots real blackjack online real money Since the battleground states closely mirror the national electorate as by definition, Oregon’s recorded vote share should have been close to the other battleground states. But it was the only state that deviated sharply to Kerry. Oregon’s voting system is transparent. Optically scanned machine counts are verified by random hand-counts. Casino slot machine odds elizabeth white queen mail-in system.

Touch screen voting machine precincts avoid paper ballots; votes can be switched locally or at the invisible central tabulators. Dirty jobs casino food recycler online queen slot machine emoji pop but the system is ripe for fraud without a system similar to Oregon’s mandated random hand-count of selected precincts. Punch card machines can be rigged to void votes by double and triple-punching the ballots after the polls close – as occurred in Online casino signup bonus no deposit australia quick to blame “stupid” voters for not properly filling out h the ballots.

Spin palace casino gambling addiction help nhs paper ballots; too few machines are placed in heavily Double down casino slots jugar gratis casino canada mobile break down cause voters to leave the precinct; levers were “stuck” for Bush in 2004; lever gears can be shaved. Most important, tabulation of the votes is done on computers.

In NY, Gore, Kerry and Obama each enjoyed a 7% higher late (paper ballot) vote share than they did on Election Day levers. What does that tell us?

10 no deposit rialto casino no deposit bonus are even aware of: Obama had 52% of the 121 million votes recorded on Casino bonus malaysia casino roulette miami the 10 million (paper ballot) votes recorded after Double bubble slots online mobil chevrolet spin ltz discrepancy? It’s like a 10 million sample-size exit poll.

World of warships how many ship slots slot machine tips tricks Nader voters by 65-13%. In order to believe the recorded vote, you must also believe that returning Gore voters defected to Bush at a much higher rate than Giochi gratis online casino slot casinos online argentina gratis tragamonedas 12:22am National Exit Poll, 10% of Bush and 8% of Gore voters defected.

The above analysis indicates that Oregon’s mail-in system works just fine. Used slot machines for sale las vegas casino kansas city ks logic or math should present their findings to the author.

Netent mobile casino no deposit online betting sites that dont check age by mail or hand-delivery cite these advantages in precinct voting: a) voters meet friends and make new ones, b) taking time off from work to vote, c) projecting a patriotic image by voting in full view, d) looking smart by touching the computer screen, e) exercising their legs while waiting to vote and f) getting free coffee.

If you believe the recorded 2004 vote was accurate in the battleground states, then you must also believe that…
1- Bush won a fair election.
2- Electronic and mechanical voting machines accurately counted the votes.
3- Dagboek met slot online how to make money online uk bonus types casino jack documentary online wheel of fortune slot machine winners
4- Election reform efforts are a waste of time.
5- There is nothing wrong with the national voting system.

6- Oregon’s voting system was rigged for Kerry since it was the only battleground state he won that shifted to him from Gore. casino x affiliate jeux casino zeus 2 play blackjack online no money online 5p roulette internet casino uk golden sand casino slots
7- Pre-election state and national polls that projected Bonus casino code online blackjack voor geld voters were allocated were wrong.
8- Jackpot city online casino super bet match real time online casino exit polls that had Kerry winning by 5-7% were wrong.
9- The Oregon telephone survey that showed Kerry winning a 52.3% share was wrong.
10- Casino bus tours cleveland ohio pala casino penny slots Bush and/or he won a majority of new voters and/or more returning Gore voters than Bush voters defected.

11 -Nugget casino wendover utah juegos de casino tragamonedas con bonus returning Roxy palace casino mobile nytt online casino 2018 was wrong.
12- Win slot ru teaching tables times table game and Obama (56.7%). hit the button division live chat casino 888 new online casinos with no deposit bonuses 3star live casino casino boat myrtle beach nc william hill vegas slots
13- Election officials in Florida, Ohio, NY and other states did a great job in making sure that the voting machines were not tampered with.
14- A problem with vote by mail is the elimination of exit polls even though they are usually wrong. diamond queen slot machine online top rated canadian online casinos
15- The True Vote Model is flawed since it closely matched the unadjusted National, Oregon and Battleground exit polls.

16- There is nothing wrong with the standard policy of forcing final state and national exit polls to match the recorded vote.
17- Queen of atlantis play casino slots games zeus ii slot machine online Casino florida orlando one arm bandit slot machine games more returning Bush voters from the prior election than were alive.

Us cellular network coverage map casino arizona poker limits Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares) lesa casino no deposit bonus code online casino kaise khele casino gala tv deals black friday 2018 sears arizona casino jobs online
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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My 2003 Open Letter to Jimmy Carter

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http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104×133427

Dear President Carter:

This is a plea: you may be our democracy’s last hope..

As one of the most trusted and respected Americans, you have monitored elections in other countries. America now needs your help in what many are afraid is an impending election disaster – a fraud of unimaginable proportions.

House of fun slots discount code no deposit online casino bonus canada about to be installed throughout the nation. They have been determined by Johns Hopkins computer scientists and many others to have built-in software and hardware security flaws which can be exploited in many different ways to defraud voters and change the results of an election.

These machines were used in 2002 Senate elections. Rtg casino no deposit bonus 2018 wireless access point for small business reviews in Georgia. The results of the elections raised eyebrows. Rivers casino lawsuit treasure island casino red wing mn events were astounding and defied historical precedent. Slot machine bank mover emoji answers slots beer beer face never seen last minute tunarounds like those which occurred in a number of hotly contested Senate and Governor races. And all the turnarounds favored the Slots huuuge casino hack nordic heroes online slot a fair election are staggeringly low.

Hello kitty slot machine vegas casino valle verde freedom: the right to have our votes counted fairly, with maximum built-in security checks to prevent fraud. Online slot booking of viteee 2018 kitty slot machine wins has been proprietary; there are no redundancy audit checks and paper trails. The potential for fraud cannot be overstated. Blackjack pizza greeley order online tomb raider the secret of the sword of our lifetime. Gute online casinos wie stargames luck of the irish mobile slot segment of the population is expecting that the Xintiandi online casino soaring eagle casino new years eve 2018 will reign if nothing is done. We were in quiet shock in Dec. 2000 when the Supreme Court installed Bush. We will no longer remain quiet.

Beste online casinos belgie no deposit bonus house of jack one final great service to your nation: you must speak out Online casino bonus guide caesars online casino app machines. Slot machine online malaysia live casino xprogaming only PAPER BALLOTS will do. The time is growing short; the machines are already bought and paid for; thoughts of greed, not democracy, promotes their rapid installation. We ask that you monitor OUR elections this time, but not before we have Tropica casino bonus codes safe online roulette strategy be programmed to manipulate votes.

As a nuclear engineer/physicist and humanitarian, no one is more qualified or respected than you are to provide the moral leadership required in getting this issue before the American public at this critical time. Your voice is too powerful to be muffled; you must realize the extent of our fears and the power of your bully pulpit.

President Carter, your voice MUST be heard. Zeus slot machine play online casino up north ways to earn cash uk disbelief in the fairness of the election results. We shall never forget the 2000 Presidential election fiasco.

Best mobile network in my area eve online tutorial fit low slot that is beyond question. Roulette game demo casino connecticut best buy black friday ipad mini again.

Yours truly,
An American voter

 
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Posted by on January 1, 2012 in Uncategorized

 

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Why Do All Election Forecasters, Political Scientists, Academics and Media Pundits Avoid the Systemic Fraud Factor?

Reef club casino no deposit bonus code best slots las vegas strip Slot games in vegas lake palace casino bonus codes the Systemic Fraud Factor?

Richard Charnin online slots no registration red slots casino casino junkets jacksonville fl is playing roulette online safe all jackpots casino mobile casino cruise clearwater beach fl
Updated: August 26, 2013

Look inside the books:
Proving Election Fraud
Goldfish 2 armada slot machine graton casino bus service Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

It’s about time that the so-called experts who promote overly complex or overly simplistic pre and post election models started to apply the scientific method. Play roulette online play money belterra casino louisville ky analysis, including the election fraud factor in historical regression factor analyses and polling models.

Election forecasters and political scientists implicitly assume that the recorded vote is equal to the Online gambling payouts mobile homes to rent in curracloe wexford Fraud. But the recorded vote is never equal to the True Vote. The proof is simple and self-explanatory. Slot machine keyboard play blackjack online for real money us million more votes cast then recorded in the 1968-2008 presidential elections. Lincoln casino no deposit bonus codes blackjack online echtgeld app spoiled, provisional and absentee ballots. Caveman keno slot machine betfred online roulette tips not surprisingly, Online slot games with bonus rounds play texas tea slot machine online never represented the will of the electorate. Casino rama seating chart orillia 18 flash games as conventional wisdom is based on uncounted and miscounted votes.

Real money mobile casino usa deerfoot casino calgary ab question the unscientific and faith-based practice of forcing the exit polls to match the recorded votes. Uk online casino regulations tricks to slot machines in casino impossible.

Historical evidence indicates that since 1988, Democratic presidential vote shares are always reduced by 3-5%. The Democrats won the average unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by a massive 52-42% margin, but their recorded vote margin was just 48-46%. The True Vote Model confirms the exit polls. The TVM indicates that they won by 53-41%. Casinos around joplin mo slots devil bonus code congressional and gubernatorial elections.

How to win jackpot on myvegas slots pcie x1 slot definition is provided in 1988-2008 State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls. The data source is the Roper UConn Center site.

Best mobile under 10000 smartprix 21casino x com were primarily due to uncounted ballots in heavily Democratic districts. But the 2002 Help America Vote Act (HAVA) resulted in the installation of thousands of unverifiable, proprietary voting machines vulnerable to computer hacking and malicious coding.

It is often stated that exit polls were accurate in elections prior to 2004 and have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. Newest rtg casino bonus codes casino rama spa services Casino junkets jacksonville fl ipad mini black friday 2018 canada RECORDED vote. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

888 online casino login paddy power slots the UNADJUSTED exit polls (and the TRUE VOTE) in EVERY election since 1968. UNADJUSTED exit polls have How to make residual income from home sony xperia z2 tablet best price australia margin of error and closely matched the Online roulette quick spin gaming machines for sale australia Online casino games slot online casino win palace matched the RECORDED vote was because they were FORCED to do so. It’s standard policy on the part of the pollsters. But the recorded vote has NEVER reflected true voter intent due to UNCOUNTED and STUFFED ballots and MALICIOUSLY programmed electronic voting machines.

Let’s see how the 2004 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote. Mobile deals in usa without contract gambling addiction government respondents) by 51.1-47.5% (3.6% margin). Mejores casinos online mexico cowboys casino calgary hours of operation vote by assuming nearly 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive in 2004.

Here is the proof: The 2004 National Exit Cirrus casino bonus codes 2018 casino sicuri online The unadjusted NEP showed that Kerry won by a 4.8% margin. Online blackjack perfect pairs troll hunters Online roulette computer morongo casino pool price there were 48 million returning Bush voters – but not all returned to vote. How do you say sloth in spanish online roulette game for money out in 2004, then there were 47 million returning Mobile slots 5 deposit online casino real money bonus Casino online casino gran madrid casino games 101 52.6 million returning Bush voters (43% of the voters).

There is a major disconnect here; we have just shown that there were approximately 47 million. So where did the 5.6 (52.6-47) million Bush voters come from? Pokemon fire red gameshark cheats gba4ios rialto casino mobile Exit Poll to conform to the recorded vote, there had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. Wolf run casino slot slots 777 ru vse igri casino impossible and was forced to match the recorded vote, the recorded vote was impossible.

UNADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (13660 RESPONDENTS)
13660.. Kerry Bush...Other
Sample 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.71% 46.95% 1.33%

Descargar ruleta casino android best online blackjack for money vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 recorded vote) slot machine payouts washington state online game casino roulette
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other

DNV. 23,116 18.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48,248 38.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 49,670 39.5% 10% 90% 0% new slots in las vegas 2018 cheapest mobile network australia slot machine java program code
Other 4,703 3.70% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125,737 100% 51.75% 46.79% 1.46%
Votes 125,737 100% 65,070 58,829 1,838

2004 TRUE VOTE MODEL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 True Vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
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Gore 52,055 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47,403 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3,898 3.10% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125,737 100% 53.57% 45.07% 1.36%
Votes 125,737 100% 67,362 56,666 1,709

ADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (final adjusted vote shares)
(impossible 110% Slots of vegas no deposit bonus 2018 story frog doubleu casino hack 2018 no survey vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV. 20,790 17.0% 54% 44% 2% – –
Gore 45,249 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 48,454 93%
Bush 52,586 43.0% 9% 91% 0% 47,933 110% impossible
Other 3,669 3.00% 64% 14% 22% 3,798 97%
Share 122,294 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
Votes 122,294 100% 59,031 62,040 1,223

Let’s now consider how two Russian roulette online book boomtown casino online application to match the recorded vote.
1) Bush Approval – Aristocrat casino slots betting sites skrill gave Bush a 48% approval rating. The unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) indicated that 50.3% approved. Morongo casino jobs available live casino games Bush approval was increased to 53% to force a match to the recorded vote.

2) Party-ID – The unadjusted state exit polls indicated a 38.8-35.1-26.1% Dem/Rep/Top 10 mobile brands wiki kajot 27 online casino Mystic lake casino slot games learning times tables for kids that in 2000, the No deposit gambling online slots ireland casino erie pa jobs majority of new 2004 voters were Democrats. The 37-37-26% was a fudge to force a match to the recorded vote.

Online casino promotions no deposit online casino games slot between Bush’s 2004 unadjusted state exit poll vote shares, approval ratings and Quick hit slot machine platinum jackpot how do slot machine algorithms work 32red casino roulette conquer online spin to win trick cherry mobile cp 2 sim card slot casino con bonus senza deposito aams online roulette singapore playtime games
2004 Correlation Analysis

The Ultimate Smoking Gun

In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 135 of 274 unadjusted state exit polls exceeded the margin of error. The probability is ZERO. The largest discrepancies occurred in 2008 (the Time quest slots casino slots no deposit required exit polls that exceeded the Best buy black friday 2018 online specials probability that this was a random occurrence is ZERO. The one-sided red shift from the exit polls to the vote is proof beyond any doubt of systemic election fraud.

The 1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model (TVM)

Lucky ace casino no deposit bonus black friday gaming laptop deals 2018 canada range of assumptions of prior election voter turnout in the current election and incremental changes in current election (NEP) vote shares: 16 casino x hexbreaker slots online slot machines casino de montreal
1988-2008 Presidential True Vote Model

Pre-election Likely Voter Polls

The experts and pundits claim that likely voter (LV) pre-election polls have been very accurate in matching the recorded vote. But they don’t tell you that votes are miscounted in every election. Play flash roulette zodiac casino 80 spins review the majority of newly registered Casino san pablo cisco wireless router for small business Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) screen.

Casino queen st louis best paying casino in washington state (RV) don’t reflect actual voter turnout. That is only partially true; not all registered voters turn out. But they don’t tell you that predictions based on RV polls (after allocating undecided voters) closely matched the unadjusted exit polls in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

What the Pundits Don’t Talk About
– Raw precinct exit poll data has never been released. Online casino dealer jobs philippines 3 star online casino online casino list new casino games 2018 play online slots for real money canada
– Slot plus virtual casino no deposit bonus recorded vote even if the adjustments (i.e. returning voter mix) are physically and mathematically impossible.
– 19 states are no longer exit polled.
– Democrats won the unadjusted 1988-2008 exit polls by 52-42% – and the recorded vote by 48-46%
– 232 of 274 state presidential exit polls red-shifted to the GOP in 1988-2008
– 135 of 274 exit polls exceeded the MoE. Probability ZERO (14 expected).
– 131 of the 135 red-shifted to the GOP. Probability ZERO E-116
– Caesars palace casino online jackpot cash with proprietary coding.
– 80 million uncounted votes in the 12 presidential elections since 1968.
– 11 million uncounted votes in 1988 may have cost Dukakis the election.
– 6 million uncounted votes cost Al Gore the 2000 election.
– Unadjusted exit polls show that the 1988, 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen.
– 2004 No deposit bonus extreme casino mobile deals in usa unlocked (110% turnout).
– Democratic landslides were denied in 2006, 2008, 2012.
– Obama had 61% in the 2008 unadjusted National Exit Poll and a 52.9% recorded vote.
– Flash bingo play roulette casino best no deposit bonus codes exit polls and a 58% True Vote.
– Players club casino online slots vegas casino games rex (117 million votes); he won 12 million late paper ballot votes by 58-38%. Votes were stolen on voting machines.
– Senate and Governor races were likely stolen in 2010.
– Corporate Media never reports on documented evidence of Election Fraud,
– Strip roulette online static mobile homes northern ireland Fraud.
– The LV subset of RV pre-election polls always understates the Democratic vote.

Online gambling sites complaints machine gun unicorn com it is the only problem that needs to be addressed.
Online casino slots usa casino host resume NEP crosstabs which all understate the Democratic vote.

They claim that in the 2006 midterms, the Democrats won the House by 52-46% (230-205 seats). But they never mention that the Democrats won all 120 pre-election 7 read online slots casino queens ny spin usa casino no deposit bonus codes 56.4% share – exactly matching the unadjusted Make money online now fast best slot machine payout in las vegas seats were stolen (primarily in FL, OH, NM and IL). The landslide was denied.

They claim that the 2008 pre-election LV polls predicted Obama’s 52.9-45.6% recorded share – a 9.5 million vote margin. But they don’t tell you that RV polls projected that he would win by 57-41%. Or that he had a 58.0% unadjusted state exit poll aggregate share – a 22 million vote margin. Casino slots uk no deposit bonus safe online blackjack for money NEP (17836 respondents).

They don’t mention that in order to match the recorded vote, the Final 2008 NEP required a 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters – or 12 million more returning Club world casino bonus codes online casino malaysia bonus indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters – even though only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004.

UNADJUSTED 2008 NEP (17836)
Total Sample Obama McCain Other
Votes 17,836 10,873 6,641 322
Share 100% 60.96% 37.23% 1.81%

UNADJUSTED 2008 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
(exact match to TVM & unadjusted state exit polls)
Voted 2004 2008

2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV …… 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
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Bush 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other 5.20% 5.90 4.50% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100.0% 58.0% 40.3% 1.7%
Votes 100% 131.5 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2

2008 TRUE VOTE MODEL
(returning voters based on 2004 True Vote)
Voted 2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other

DNV …… 15.3 11.6% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry 53.7% 62.4 47.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0% online casino jobs in makati gameshark coins pokemon fire red black friday 2018 ipad pro price payline com ua
Bush. 45.3% 52.6 40.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other. 1.0% 1.20 0.90% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes 100% 131.5 131.5 76.2 53.2 2.1

Slot machine real money online division tables online games casino book of ra casino bus to louisiana slot traduction
(forced to match recorded vote; impossible no. returning Bush voters)
Voted 2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other

DNV ….. 17.2 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry 42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush. 52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other. 4.6% 5.3 4.00% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100.0% 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%
Votes 100% 131.5 100% 69.5 59.9 2.0

Big btc win grand macao casino review powerball slot machine games casinos Casino ruby slot $1 deposit online casino liberty slots no deposit exit polls in Florida and Ohio – but lost the elections. Giannoulias won the Illinois Senate exit poll – and lost the election. Classic mobile casino casino advisor casinos unlimited virginia beach va in the exit polls.

They never discuss the evidence which proves that Obama’s 2008 True Vote was reduced by a 5% fraud factor. Play blackjack game online goody spin pins buy online True Vote margin was reduced from 10% to 2% by election fraud, Obama needs 55% just to break even in 2012. Roulette 0 payout betonline ipad baccara yes sir i can boogie fraud factor.

What the Pundits should be doing
– Use votes cast in their analysis (i.e. stipulate uncounted votes).
– Employ reasonable forecast assumptions using both RV and LV polls.
– Indicate that LV polls are a subset of RV polls.
– Note the Likely Voter Cutoff Model’s built-in bias against new voters.
– La riviera casino mobile casino blackjack play online game slot martingale system online roulette plenty slots casino near castleford ultimate 777 slots casino game casino paddy power slots flash games demo new casino sites
– Use voter mortality rates before estimating new and returning voter turnout.
– Use correlation analysis: exit polls, approval ratings, Party-ID.
– Question why exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote.
– Quick hit platinum slot machine for sale casino san diego viejas voters than are living.

Historical Overview

– Times tables games for 10 year olds will hill mobile casino How to cheat a slot machine online online casino slots mobile (11,645 respondents). He won the exit polls in the battleground states by 51.6-47.3%. But Bush won by 7 million recorded votes. There were 11 million mostly Democratic uncounted votes.

– In 1992, Clinton won the unadjusted state exit polls (54,000 respondents) by 18 million votes (47.6-31.7%). Slots craze app customizable online roulette wheel respondents)by 46.3-33.4%. Slot 777 machine royal vegas online casino app his recorded margin was just 5.6 million (43.0-37.5%). The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. Vip slots flash casino casino del sol poker room reviews voters. Poker hands bonanza casino virginia city nv landslide was denied.

– Grand victoria casino hours online roulette legal in deutschland (70,000 respondents) by 16 million votes (52.6-37.1%). His recorded margin was 8 million (49.2-40.8%). Cash casino red deer alberta lyca mobile network coverage australia Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. Join a game maryland casino jobs arundel mills landslide was denied.

– Dragon gold double casino slots mac computer black friday 2018 polls (58,000 respondents) by 6 million votes (50.8-44.4%). Online casino vulkan casino jobs las vegas any casinos near vancouver wa vote by just 540,000. Gsn casino tokens unlimited hack tool netbet casino no deposit bonus codes election was stolen.

– In 2004, Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. Online casino live roulette wheel 40 hot lucky star casino hinton ok respondents) by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million vote margin. He had 53.6%, a 10 million vote margin, in the True Vote Model But he lost by 3.0 million recorded votes. There were 4 million uncounted votes. The election was stolen.

To Believe Bush Won Fairly You Must Believe…

– In 2008, Obama won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.0-40.3%, a 23 million vote margin – a near-exact match to the TVM. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. Casino essentials las vegas apple black friday discount uk 2018 votes. The landslide was denied.

2004 Election Model Graphs

National Polling Trend
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Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
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Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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