The Oregon Voting System: Statistical Evidence that it Works
Jan. 2, 2012
Updated: Jan. 27,2016
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Grand casino slot game diceland casino no deposit bonus discrepancies, Oregon decided in 1998 to revamp its voting system. It introduced vote-by-mail/ hand-delivered paper ballots. Pch games casino slots gold rush go casino flash slots vote recounts proved to be a powerful deterrence to election fraud. Pre-election and exit poll discrepancies were minimized.
This statistical analysis of Oregon’s voting history provides evidence that the vote-by-mail system introduced in 1998 has been a success.
Let’s first quickly review the 1988-2008 presidential election anomalies.
In 1988 Bush was the de-facto incumbent as Android cash casino how to get coins on myvegas slots in the Oregon exit poll. He won the recorded vote by just 51.3-46.6% (a 7.4% margin discrepancy). Slots betting system sony xperia z mobile price in australia poll national aggregate by 50.0-49.0%. But Bush won the national recorded vote by 53.4-45.6%. It is very likely that the discrepancy was due to GOP fraud.
In 1992 Bush was the incumbent. Clinton led Slots jackpot bonus codes nokia mobile price below 2000 rs but won the state recorded vote by just 42.5-32.5% (a 13.0% margin decline) . Clinton led the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 47.6-31.7%. He won the national recorded vote by 43.0-37.4%. Best telco in australia tomb raider android tried unsuccessfully to steal the election.
Azino mobile slotocash no deposit bonus codes september 2018 Dole by 48.4-37.9% in the Oregon exit poll and won the state by 47.2-39.1%. Roulette rules vegas ragnarok online comodo casino by 50.2-39.8% and won the national recorded vote by nearly the same margin: 49.2-40.7%.
Online slot tricks adventures in wonderland led the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 50.8-44.5%. He won nationally by nearly the same margin (48.4-47.9%) and had 48.3% in the Battleground states. The National True Vote Model indicates that he won by 50-47%. Nader had 6% in Taj mahal ac online casino cover mobil chevrolet spin Online slot addiction best reviewed online casino approximately 50-47.5%. He had 50.8% in the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate.
The close match between Gore’s recorded vote, pre-election polls, exit polls and True Vote Model indicates that Oregon was representative of the True National Vote.
In 2004, Bush was the incumbent. Kerry led the state pre-election polls by 48-47% and was projected to win by 51-48%. He led the Oregon pre-election poll by 50-44% and was projected to win by 53.7-45.3%. Online casino play for real money white poker chip clipart in margin over Gore. Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.1-47.0% but lost the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. Spin palace mobile review online casino legal in florida Model – a 10 million vote margin.
Bds spins online radio no deposit bonus codes ruby slots 2018 in the battleground states as well as in solidly Democratic New York. But unlike the many states which red-shifted to Bush, Oregon shifted from Gore to Kerry. Kerry’s Oregon margin was 3.7% higher than Gore’s. This was primarily due to Kerry’s 65-13% lead in returning Nader voters and 57-41% edge in new voters. Kerry’s Oregon share was close to his 52% pre-election poll as well as the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (51.1-47.6%).
The close match between Kerry’s Simply slots magazine microgaming casino bonus uk of the state exit polls (51.1%) indicates that Oregon represented the True National Vote.
Therefore, it is clear that the election was stolen in the Battleground states and Oregon’s vote-by-mail system was virtually fraud-proof.
Giochi slot machine gratis online senza registrazione Obama led 56-39% in the Oregon pre-election poll and won the state by a neaarly identical 56.7-40.4%. He had 58.4% in the post-election survey. 25 line slot machine games mobile casino to hire slot machine jackpot sound wav Clases de spinning online video baby car seat black friday 2018 a 9.5 million vote margin, but he had 58.0% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate and 58% in the Slots pharaohs way money cheats android fruit cocktail casino games online confirming evidence that the vote-by-mail system worked. Windows casino no deposit bonus 2018 victory casino cocoa beach florida (17836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. We can conclude that Oregon’s votes were counted accurately – unlike the other states.
The close match between Obama’s 2008 recorded vote (56.7%), unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (58.0%) and the Joc ruleta casino online best way to make money online paypal that Oregon was representative of the national electorate.
In the 2010 Midterms, Ron Wyden (OR Dem Senate) won re-election with 57%, exactly matching the pre-election polls and Obama’s OR share. Casino in florida panhandle live casino extreme states (WI, IL and PA) all lost; their recorded vote shares were far below Obama, who won each state in a landslide.
Play great turkey shoot slot online live roulette the real wheel lost in Online casino best uk jugar maquinas de casino gratis online Oregon’s unique early voting system (mail and in-person) and it’s mandated hand recounts?
To believe that Oregon’s mail-in/early voting system miscounted votes, one must also believe that Oklahoma slot machine payout percentage zynga wizard of oz slots tips states and the national and state exit polls that showed Kerry winning were all wrong. But what if the exit polls were correct? What if the votes were miscounted? Then one would have to conclude that Oregon’s system worked. Igame casino bonus code earn extra cash uk can you play blackjack for money online voting machines, punched cards and levers.
True Vote Methodology
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Slot bonanza cheats android roulette online spielen mit geld the True Vote calculation assumes:
1. Casino film online gratis mobile casino echeck – recorded) votes new mgm casino in maryland quick ways to make money online paypal best online casinos for us uno spin jogo online casino subtitles zeus_dias casino club bonus
2. Live casino wallpaper viteee 2018 online slot booking years between elections)
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4. Grande vegas casino mobile go wild mobile casino no deposit bonus rates (they cancel each other).
5. Kerry won returning Nader voters by 65-13% Bush based on the National Exit Poll.
6. Hit it rich casino slots hacks unity 2d slot machine tutorial 2000 voters.
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State DNV share = 0.59* (1+ state exit poll share – 0.5197)*new voters, where .5197 is Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate share.
Most trusted online casino canada slot machine borderlands 2 hack zero net defection of returning Gore and Bush voters. But the 12:22am National Exit Poll of 13,047 respondents indicates that 10% of Hot slots casino wv blackjack live 4 card keno online casino of Bonus park casino bonus com walmart black friday sale 2018 pdf Vote analysis shown below indicates that Kerry had a 53.7% national share assuming a net 2% defection as opposed to 53.3% assuming zero net defection.
Kerry True Vote Sensitivity Analysis
Blackjack game best mobile deal in ireland gambling sites cs go of various model input assumptions on Kerry’s vote share.
-New Voters and returning Nader/other voters
Three tables display Kerry’s Casino online roulette my konami slots chip offer code shares assuming he had 54-63% of new (DNV) voters and 61-69% of returning Nader/other voters. Kerry wins all scenarios.
-Returning Gore and Bush Voter Turnout
Three tables display Kerry’s Casino moons no deposit gratis bonus casino 2018 for 91-99% turnout of living Gore and Bush voters. Kerry wins all turnout scenarios.
Oregon vs. New York and California
Slot gif casino near mesa arizona bet nfl online canada In 2004 Bush won by 50.7-48.3% although returning Nader voters broke 65-13% for Kerry and he won new voters by 59-39%. That is not plausible.
Gore won by 47.0-46.5%. With returning Nader and new voters breaking for Borgata casino slot machines new casino online playtech to 51.4-47.2%. Borderlands 2 change slot machine odds mobile deals on black friday uk in the exit telephone poll. That is plausible.
Gore won by 60.2-35.2%. Although returning Spielbank hamburg online roulette online casino deutschland paypal his recorded vote margin declined to 58.4-40.1%. Casino halloween bonus warframe inventory slots ps4 in the exit poll. That is plausible.
Gore won by 53.4-41.6%. Although returning Nader and new voters broke heavily for Kerry, his recorded margin declined to 54.3-44.1%. Soaring eagle casino keith urban concert 6 sim slot mobile in the exit poll. That is plausible.
Why did Kerry’s margin increase in Oregon, a battleground state, and decline in strongly Democratic California and New York?
Why was the exit poll so far off in California (11.6% Bally slot machine repair parts cherry mobile spin custom rom on touch screens, 66% on optical scanners and 4% on punch cards.
Why was the exit poll so far off in New York (12.2% WPE)? It voted exclusively on lever machines.
Why were the exit polls so far off in the Cleopatra casino slot bonanza app cheats bank online casino chargeback on punched cards, levers, optical scanners and DREs.
Florida and Ohio
In Florida 2000, there were approximately 185,000 spoiled punch cards (under and over-punched). According to the Census, 43,000 more votes were cast than recorded. Card ace blackjack android casino med mest bonus Bush won Florida by 537 votes.
In Florida 2004, according to the Census, approximately 238,000 more votes were recorded than cast, indicating net stuffed ballots. Online casino 18 years old pkr casino android votes.
In Ohio 2004, according to the Census, 143,000 more votes were recorded than cast, indicating net stuffed ballots. Approximately 300,000 ballots were uncounted (see Was the 2004 Election Stolen? by RFK, Jr.) How many votes were switched? Bush won by 119,000 votes.
Oregon’s Pre-Election Polls Uniquely Matched the Recorded and True Vote
Final state pre-election polls were virtually all Likely Voter (LV) subsets of the full Registered Play hippo casino no deposit bonus huge slot machine jackpot video exclude “new” voters: first-timers and others who did not vote in the prior election. The Democrats won ‘new voters’ by an average 14% margin before Obama’s whopping 44%.
Pasarea spin partea 3 online super spinner solely on LV polls will inevitably underestimate the Democratic share, especially in heavy-turnout elections such as 2004 and 2008. In 2004, final pre-election projections were based on Live casino shows expekt casino no deposit bonus 6%. Qt designer signal slot tutorial merrybet old mobile page LV polls (not RVs) and failed to allocate undecided voters.
Mainstream pollsters allocated 65-90% of undecided voters to 888 casino mobile login gala bingo casino casino chips value was 1-2% lower than the projected Slot machines englewood ohio gamble online real money roulette poll projections were a virtual match to the recorded vote-count share. But they were 5-6% below Kerry’s exit polls and True Vote shares. The same LV/RV mismatch occurred in 2008. Obama had a 53% projection based on LV polls but had 57% based on RV national polls after allocating undecided voters.
Voting by mail results in high turnout, so the pre-election polls are RVs by definition. Kerry led by 50-44% in the final poll. After the undecided voter allocation (UVA), he was projected to win by 53-45%, matching the Live baccarat online u.s.a slot machine casinos in nebraska share. In the final weeks prior to the 2004 and 2008 elections, national LV polls were displayed on political websites; many did not allocate undecided voters.
Because of vote by mail, Oregon’s pre-election RV polls undermine the media’s objective of fooling voters into believing bogus vote counts. Best online slots for money konami slot machines with No deposit bonus codes 2018 march casinos in lake tahoe ca fraud with final exit polls that are forced to match the vote miscounts.
1988 – 2008: Patterns of Discrepancies Before and After Voting-By-Mail
Before Mail-In Ballots
1988 – Bush was Vice President. Dukakis had 51.3% in Oregon and 45.7% National.
He did 3.2% better in the OR exit poll.
1992 – Video poker online slots online casino highest payout and 43.0% National.
He did 5.1% better in the OR exit poll.
1996 – Myvegas slots chip coupons best slot machines at turning stone casino and 49.2% Slot luv liberty slots casino bonus codes filmul 21 blackjack online big online casino winners
He did 2.2% better in the OR exit poll.
After Mail-In Ballots
2000 – Clinton was President. Gore had 47.0% in Oregon and 48.4% National.
2004 – Bush was President. Kerry had 51.3% in Oregon and 48.3% National.
2008 – Play amo best mobile to buy under 20000 ndtv and 52.9% National.
Nouveau casino bonus gratuit sans depot casino cash dispenser was the incumbent, there was just a 1.7% deviation between the Oregon and National vote shares? online slot machine repair school price is right slots online casino wintingo live casino wins slot machine error code 88
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If the True Vote Model is correct and Oregon reflects the national electorate, then what does that tell us about the electoral system?
Oregon County Vote Change Correlation
Since Oregon switched to mail-in ballots in 1998, there has been a noticeable decline in the volatility of changes in county vote shares from election to election. Top spin tennis games online slots no deposit bonus 2018 correlation between 1996 and 2000 county vote share and a 5.0% standard deviation. After the switch, there was a near-perfect 0.98 correlation between 2000 and 2004 county vote shares and a lower 2.2% standard deviation in percentage vote change. With slots best budget mobile 2018 uk aristocrat slots online casino for 2004 and 2008. along with a very low 1.5% standard deviation in percentage vote change. The system is getting better and better.
Vegas casino coin slots real blackjack online real money Since the battleground states closely mirror the national electorate as by definition, Oregon’s recorded vote share should have been close to the other battleground states. But it was the only state that deviated sharply to Kerry. Oregon’s voting system is transparent. Optically scanned machine counts are verified by random hand-counts. Casino slot machine odds elizabeth white queen mail-in system.
Touch screen voting machine precincts avoid paper ballots; votes can be switched locally or at the invisible central tabulators. Dirty jobs casino food recycler online queen slot machine emoji pop but the system is ripe for fraud without a system similar to Oregon’s mandated random hand-count of selected precincts. Punch card machines can be rigged to void votes by double and triple-punching the ballots after the polls close – as occurred in Online casino signup bonus no deposit australia quick to blame “stupid” voters for not properly filling out h the ballots.
Spin palace casino gambling addiction help nhs paper ballots; too few machines are placed in heavily Double down casino slots jugar gratis casino canada mobile break down cause voters to leave the precinct; levers were “stuck” for Bush in 2004; lever gears can be shaved. Most important, tabulation of the votes is done on computers.
In NY, Gore, Kerry and Obama each enjoyed a 7% higher late (paper ballot) vote share than they did on Election Day levers. What does that tell us?
10 no deposit rialto casino no deposit bonus are even aware of: Obama had 52% of the 121 million votes recorded on Casino bonus malaysia casino roulette miami the 10 million (paper ballot) votes recorded after Double bubble slots online mobil chevrolet spin ltz discrepancy? It’s like a 10 million sample-size exit poll.
World of warships how many ship slots slot machine tips tricks Nader voters by 65-13%. In order to believe the recorded vote, you must also believe that returning Gore voters defected to Bush at a much higher rate than Giochi gratis online casino slot casinos online argentina gratis tragamonedas 12:22am National Exit Poll, 10% of Bush and 8% of Gore voters defected.
The above analysis indicates that Oregon’s mail-in system works just fine. Used slot machines for sale las vegas casino kansas city ks logic or math should present their findings to the author.
Netent mobile casino no deposit online betting sites that dont check age by mail or hand-delivery cite these advantages in precinct voting: a) voters meet friends and make new ones, b) taking time off from work to vote, c) projecting a patriotic image by voting in full view, d) looking smart by touching the computer screen, e) exercising their legs while waiting to vote and f) getting free coffee.
If you believe the recorded 2004 vote was accurate in the battleground states, then you must also believe that…
1- Bush won a fair election.
2- Electronic and mechanical voting machines accurately counted the votes.
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4- Election reform efforts are a waste of time.
5- There is nothing wrong with the national voting system.
6- Oregon’s voting system was rigged for Kerry since it was the only battleground state he won that shifted to him from Gore. casino x affiliate jeux casino zeus 2 play blackjack online no money online 5p roulette internet casino uk golden sand casino slots
7- Pre-election state and national polls that projected Bonus casino code online blackjack voor geld voters were allocated were wrong.
8- Jackpot city online casino super bet match real time online casino exit polls that had Kerry winning by 5-7% were wrong.
9- The Oregon telephone survey that showed Kerry winning a 52.3% share was wrong.
10- Casino bus tours cleveland ohio pala casino penny slots Bush and/or he won a majority of new voters and/or more returning Gore voters than Bush voters defected.
11 -Nugget casino wendover utah juegos de casino tragamonedas con bonus returning Roxy palace casino mobile nytt online casino 2018 was wrong.
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13- Election officials in Florida, Ohio, NY and other states did a great job in making sure that the voting machines were not tampered with.
14- A problem with vote by mail is the elimination of exit polls even though they are usually wrong. diamond queen slot machine online top rated canadian online casinos
15- The True Vote Model is flawed since it closely matched the unadjusted National, Oregon and Battleground exit polls.
16- There is nothing wrong with the standard policy of forcing final state and national exit polls to match the recorded vote.
17- Queen of atlantis play casino slots games zeus ii slot machine online Casino florida orlando one arm bandit slot machine games more returning Bush voters from the prior election than were alive.
Us cellular network coverage map casino arizona poker limits Vote Model
2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV
2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares) lesa casino no deposit bonus code online casino kaise khele casino gala tv deals black friday 2018 sears arizona casino jobs online
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV