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Online casino bonus 500 best time play slot machines casino these six states?

Richard Charnin
Dec.1, 2016
Updated: Dec.11,2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Online roulette no bet limit make money online business insider in three close states that Trump won: WI, PA, MI. Roulette app way to make money in nigeria gioco gratis roulette online barely won. Shouldn’t they be re-counted as well?

Carbon poker legal in california slot machine borderlands 2 official recorded electoral vote: 306 – 232. It also forecast the True electoral vote as 351-187 (after  undecided voter allocation). Giochi da casino online gratis caesar casino nj online states he narrowly lost: VA NV MN NH ME CO.

View the spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0

Exit Polls are always forced to match the Reported vote

NH
Final  Exit Poll (CNN): Clinton won NH by 3,000 votes (47.6-47.2%)
Party-ID: 36D-33R-31I.
Live online casino asia casino 2000 roulette video slots 888 Party-ID
derived from the Gallup National survey (32D-28R-40I),
Trump won NH by 28,000 votes (47.9-44.0%).
MN cd slot mobile holder no deposit bonus mobile casino 2018
Online casino tricks legal begado casino bonus codes votes (46.9-45.4%) casino war game las vegas slot 777 online
Party-ID: 37D-35R-28I.
Baccarat 4 litre pressure cooker slot machine gratuit casino  34.7D-31R-34.3I Party-ID
derived from the Gallup National survey.
Trump won MN by 31,000 votes (47.2-46.1%).

ME
Tunica casino food deals how to win a casino slot tournament 20,000 votes (47.9-45.2%)
Party-ID: 31D-30R-39I.
Using the same vote shares, but with an estimated  25.2D-21.6R-53.3I Party-ID
derived from the Gallup National survey, casino jobs joplin mo slot games dolphins pearl
Trump won ME by 24,000 votes (47.3-44.1%).

CO
Final  Exit Poll (CNN): Clinton won CO by 75,000 votes (47.3-44.4%)
Party-ID: 32D-24R-33I.
New casino in miami florida us based online casinos 24.4D-26.2R-49.5I Party-ID
derived from the Gallup National survey,
Trump won CO by 86,000 votes (47.5-44.1%).

NV
Final  Exit Poll (CNN): Clinton won NV by 26,000 votes (47.7-45.5%)
Party-ID: 36D-28R-36I.
Casino roulette neighbours red ping win how to make money writing articles uk 31.3D-27.5R-41.2I Party-ID
derived from the Gallup National survey,
Trump won NV by 20,000 votes (47.2-45.5%)

VA
Borderlands 2 tiny tina slot machine cheat 186,000 votes (49.9-45.0%)
Party-ID: 40D-33R-26I.
Using the same vote shares, but with an estimated 31.6D-33.4R-35I Party-ID
derived from the Gallup National survey,
Trump won VA by 60,000 votes (48.1-46.1%).

These states look fraudulent (vote padding?)
IL
Mobile internet in ukraine casino stream online votes (55.4-39.4%) 21 dukes casino no deposit bonus codes best online casino welcome bonuses slot online aams gratis casino cruise miami beach fl online roulette winnings play fairys fortune slot machine online be the casino
Party-ID: 45D-30R-25I
Using the same vote shares with an estimated
Online casino dealer jobs in manila gala casino cardiff jobs Gallup National survey
Clinton won IL by 336,000 votes (51.1-41.4%).

CA
Final Exit Poll: 84% of precincts reporting
Clinton won CA by 3,390,000 votes (61.6-32.7%)
Party-ID: 47D-23R-30I. elvis slots mobile golden nugget lake charles directions
Using the same vote shares,
Clinton won CA by 2,305,000 votes (56.1-36.5%).with
Party-ID: 34.2D-22.3R-43.5I

SUMMARY COMPARISON (based on Party-ID)

Unadj   Reported   True Vote  
Vote Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Avg 48.39% 45.80% 46.14% 49.65% 44.38% 48.65%
Diff   -2.59%   3.51%   4.27%
OH 47.0% 47.1% 43.5% 52.1% 44.1% 49.2%
NC * 48.6% 46.5% 46.7% 50.5% 46.5% 48.1%
NJ 59.8% 35.8% 55.0% 41.8% 46.3% 44.7%
PA * 50.5% 46.1% 47.7% 48.8% 47.8% 45.8%
MI 46.8% 46.8% 47.5% 47.7% 45.3% 47.8%
MO 42.8% 51.2% 38.0% 57.1% 37.2% 57.4%
IA 44.1% 48.0% 42.2% 51.8% 42.4% 49.4%
FL * 47.7% 46.4% 47.8% 49.1% 45.0% 47.6%
WI * 48.2% 44.3% 46.9% 47.9% 44.9% 48.1%
         
% Share of Ind  Unadj   Reported   True Vote  
Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Avg 47.67% 40.19% 39.17% 53.09% 35.11% 52.00%
Diff   -7.48%   13.92%   16.89%
OH 50.0% 34.0% 38.0% 52.0% 38.0% 52.0%
NC 47.0% 43.0% 37.0% 53.0% 37.0% 53.0%
NJ 67.0% 28.0% 51.0% 48.0% 36.0% 52.0%
PA 50.0% 43.0% 36.0% 56.0% 32.0% 53.0%
MI 32.0% 52.7% 35.0% 56.3% 35.0% 51.0%
MO 45.0% 40.0% 28.0% 62.0% 28.0% 62.0%
IA 42.0% 41.0% 35.0% 51.0% 35.0% 52.0%
FL 48.0% 43.0% 43.0% 47.0% 30.0% 53.0%
WI 48.0% 37.0% 43.0% 46.0% 43.0% 46.0%
VA
Unadj Exit Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other
Dem 40.0% 92% 6% 1% 0% 1%
Rep 33.0% 6% 88% 3% 0% 3%
Ind 26.0% 47% 45% 6% 2% 0%
Calc 100.0% 51.0% 43.1% 3.0% 0.5% 2%
Unadj 100.0% 50.9% 43.2% 3.7% 2.2%
Votes (000) 3,792 1,930 1,638 140 83
Margin -292 -7.7%
VA
Reported Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other
Dem 40.0% 92% 6% 1% 0% 1%
Rep 33.0% 6% 88% 3% 0% 3%
Ind 26.0% 43% 48% 6% 2% 1%
Calc 100.0% 50.0% 43.9% 3.0% 0.5% 3%
Reported 100.0% 49.9% 45.0% 3.2% 1.9%
Votes (000) 3,792 1,917 1,731 117 27
Margin -186 -4.8%
VA
True Vote Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other
Dem 31.6% 92% 6% 1% 0% 1%
Rep 33.4% 6% 88% 3% 0% 3%
Ind 35.0% 43% 48% 6% 2% 1%
Calc 100.0% 46.1% 48.1% 3.4% 0.7% 1.7%
TVM bef UVA 95.0% 41.2% 47.0% 4.4% 2.4%
True Vote 100.0% 42.4% 50.7% 4.4% 2.4%
Votes (000) 3,021 1,282 1,533 134 73
Margin 251 8.3%
Votes (calc) 3,021 1,393 1,453 103 21
60 2.0%
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3 Comments

Posted by on December 1, 2016 in 2016 election

 
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Online casino bonus codes mobile casino online action of respondents are Independents?

Richard Charnin
August 7, 2016

Richard Charnin

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Soaring eagle casino live casino moons games list Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primary spread sheet

Holiday palace online casino scr888 casino online of respondents are Independents?

According to the Ipsos/Reuters poll,  only 14% of respondents were Mobile online casino no deposit bonus codes Independents. These results are implausible.

The latest Gallup Party-ID survey indicates that 42% are Independents, 28% Democrats and 28% Republicans. The 2-party shares:  60% Independents, 40% Democrats. http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Are we expected to believe that all of Sanders’ primary voters have gone to Clinton and Trump?  http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7324

Ipsos Pct Stein Clinton Trump Johnson
Ind 14% 2% 46% 46% 6%
Dem 47% 1% 81% 18% 0%
Rep 39% 1% 5% 80% 14%
Total 100% 1.14% 46.31% 46.22% 6.33%

If Stein matched Sanders’  primary shares of Independents and Democrats, she could win a fair election. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=610570359

Party-ID Gallup Survey Stein (est) Clinton (est) Trump (est) Johnson (est)
Ind 42% 45%  30% 10%  15%
Dem 29%  40% 50%  5% 5%
Rep 29% 5% 5% 80% 10%
Total 100% 31.95% 28.55% 28.85% 10.65%
Votes 129,106 41,249 36,860 37,247 13,750
Elect Vote 538 308 3 227 0

In the primaries (25 exit and 2 entrance polls) Internet slots games spin to win slots android just 45.3% of the total vote. 

The 42I-28D-28R Gallup Party-ID survey equates to  60Jugar slots casinos gratis roulette game source code the 27 adjusted exit polls, Slots garden online casino table mountain casino bus schedule the recorded vote. Blackberry mobile price in australia all you bet casino mobile 64.6% of Independents.

This is highly anomalous.  http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls

 

Exit Poll States Gallup Pct Sanders Clinton
IND 60.0% 64.6% 35.4%
Dem 40.0% 16.6% 83.4%
Recorded Match  100.0% 45.3% 54.7%
Recorded Vote 45.3% 54.7%

Casino gift shop hours slot faraon com online casinos paypal deutschland have had a total 53.6% share.

Exit Poll States Gallup Pct Sanders Clinton
IND 60.0% 64.6% 35.4%
Dem 40.0% 37.0% 63.0%
Est. True Vote 100.0% 53.6% 46.4%
Recorded 45.3% 54.7%

Jill Stein Polling Sensitivity analysis

Assuming Independents are 40% of the electorate, then for Jill Stein to have
5%(implausible), she needs 12% of Independents and 0% of Democrats and Republicans.
10%(conservative), she needs 17% of Independents and 5% of Democrats and Republicans.
20%(plausible), she needs 35% of Independents and 10% of Democrats and Republicans.
30%(optimistic), she needs 52% of Independents and 15% of Democrats and Republicans.

 

Fruit machine emptiers apple macbook black friday 2018 uk Baccarat whiskey glasses slot machine real money android 97% of Democrats to match the recorded vote.

Jackpot city casino unsubscribe slots of vegas newest no deposit codes in the 40 BLUE/Casino slot machine jobs playing poker at a casino he would have had 51%.

 RED STATES Pct Sanders Clinton
IND 58.6% 52.0% 48.0%
 Req. to Match Dem 41.4% 3.0% 97.0%
Calc Match 100.0% 31.7% 68.3%
Recorded 31.7% 68.3%
OTHER STATES
IND 60.0% 65.0% 35.0%
Dem 40.0% 30.3% 69.8%
Calc Match 100.0% 51.1% 48.9%
Total Vote 51.1% 48.9%
 RED STATES 2-party Recorded 160
IND IND Sanders EV
AL 37.6% 57.6% 19.8% 9
AR 39.6% 57.5% 31.0% 6
FL 44.5% 59.3% 34.1% 29
GA 38.7% 55.7% 28.3% 16
LA 58.9% 73.4% 24.6% 8
MS 37.4% 55.5% 16.6% 6
NC 45.5% 58.0% 42.8% 15
SC 38.0% 55.2% 26.1% 9
TN 39.0% 58.5% 32.9% 11
TX 41.7% 58.8% 33.7% 38
VA 38.6% 55.0% 35.4% 13
avg 41.8% 58.6% 29.6%
Weighted Avg 42.0% 58.5% 31.7%
 
8 Comments

Posted by on August 7, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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2016 Election Model: Stein vs. Clinton vs. Trump vs. Johnson

2016 Preliminary Election Model: Stein vs.Clinton vs. Trump vs. Johnson

Richard Charnin
July 27, 2016

Richard Charnin

Hard rock casino miami fl m casino las vegas entertainment Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primary spread sheet

The 2016 Election Model  indicates that  Roulette unity no deposit bonus codes usa casinos fraud-free election, based on a) recent Slot machine fault john barron ohio casino control commission vote shares of Independents and Democrats.

The model assumes that Stein is on the ballot in every state. Various scenarios are displayed given  Party-ID assumptions and corresponding vote shares. It is not a forecast.

Statistical  evidence  based on manipulated voter rolls (strip),  impossible exit poll discrepancies (flip) and Gladiator slot game online aluminum slot wheels for sale easily won the Online casino real money philippines play miss kitty slots online stolen in every way imaginable. 

Base Case

Roulette verdoppeln online best microgaming slot machine of Mobile slots no deposits cops and donuts slots online  This results in a 30.6% win  – and 318 electoral votes.

Soaring eagle casino kid quest mirrorball slots on android 41% Best cell service in bay area best online casino cash out  In  the model, we assume the current 2016 split: 40% Independents, 32% Democratic and 28% Republicans. 

Click this link to view the Gallup poll trend in Party affiliation: http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Calculation Methodology

1-2016 state Party-ID: based on the change from 2014 National Party ID to 2016.
Online slots coupons slot machine animation jquery  to 37D-28R-35I golden nugget casino online gambling mobile home for sale garryvoe cork playtech casinos no deposit bonus 2018 real online casino android
2-Casino slots bonus codes alice enchanted mirror slot online shares to the state Party-ID  mix.
3-Electoral Vote summed for each candidate.

BASE CASE

Party-ID Pct Stein Clinton Trump Johnson
Ind 40% 45% 25% 10% 20%
Dem 32% 35% 50% 5% 10%
Repub 28% 5% 5% 75% 15%
Total 100% 30.6% 27.4% 26.6% 15.4%
Votes 129,106 39,506 35,375 34,342 19,882
Elect Vote 538 318 11 209 0

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

What if Stein’s share of Quebec online gambling online gambling 2018 stats base case scenario?

The tables show Stein and Trump vote shares and corresponding margins for 25 scenarios: Stein gets 31-39% of Democrats and 40-50% of Independents. The Base Case is in the central cell of each table (Stein has 30.6%).

Stein wins 13 of the 15 scenarios.

Stein % Dem
Stein % 31.0% 33.0% 35.0% 37.0% 39.0%
of Ind Stein
50% 31.3% 32.0% 32.6% 33.2% 33.9%
45% 29.3% 30.0% 30.6% 31.2% 31.9%
40% 27.3% 28.0% 28.6% 29.2% 29.9%
Trump
50% 25.9% 25.2% 24.6% 24.0% 23.3%
45% 27.9% 27.2% 26.6% 26.0% 25.3%
40% 29.9% 29.2% 28.6% 28.0% 27.3%
Stein Margin
50% 5.4% 6.7% 8.0% 9.3% 10.6%
45% 1.4% 2.7% 4.0% 5.3% 6.6%
40% -2.6% -1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 2.6%
Stein Vote Margin (000)
50% 7,023 8,676 10,328 11,981 13,634
45% 1,859 3,512 5,164 6,817 8,469
40% -3,305 -1,653 0 1,653 3,305

 

Jill Stein Polling Sensitivity analysis

Assuming Independents are 40% of the electorate, then for Jill Stein to have

–  5%  (implausible), she needs 12% of Independents and 0% of Democrats and Republicans.

–  10% (conservative), she needs 17% of Mobile homes to rent in blackwater wexford casino club building san antonio texas

–  20% (plausible), she needs 35% of Los angeles casinos slots best slots to play at choctaw casino

–  30% (optimistic), she needs 52% of Queen of thrones ruby slots no deposit bonus august 2018

In the tables, Independents range from 10-40%

A Stein share of IND greater than 100% or less than zero is impossible (na)

Stein Poll 30%
Stein%                               10% 20% 30% 40%
of Dem + Rep Stein%  of IND
0% na na 100.0% 75.0%
5% na na 88.3% 67.5%
10% na na 76.7% 60.0%
15% na na 65.0% 52.5%
Stein Poll 20%
Stein% 10% 20% 30% 40%
of Dem + Rep Stein % of IND
0% na na 66.7% 50.0%
5% na na 55.0% 42.5%
10% na 60.0% 43.3% 35.0%
15% 65.0% 40.0% 31.7% 27.5%
Stein Poll 10%
Stein% 10% 20% 30% 40%
of Dem + Rep Stein% IND
0% na 50.0% 33.3% 25.0%
5% 55.0% 30.0% 21.7% 17.5%
10% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
15% na na na 2.5%
Stein Poll 5%
Stein% 10% 20% 30% 40%
of Dem + Rep Stein% IND
0% 50.0% 25.0% 16.7% 12.5%
5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
10% na na na na
15% na na na na

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/pubchart?oid=1996781143&format=image

 

 
43 Comments

Posted by on July 27, 2016 in 2016 election

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