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2014 Election : Why won’t the National Election Pool Release UNADJUSTED exit polls?

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Richard Charnin
Nov.8, 2014

2014 Election: Why won’t the National Election Pool Release UNADJUSTED exit polls?

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Cash casino voucher vegas slots casino no deposit National Unadjusted Exit Polls

The analysis of 1988-2014 election anomalies has been proven beyond any doubt that Online casino dealer hiring may 2018 how do i make money online now or the Casino zeus gratuit zynga wizard of oz slots hack election fraud would have been eliminated long ago.  This is apparent based on the historic overview and analysis of election fraud.

In 2012,  the National Election Pool (NEP)  came to realize that unadjusted polls were a clear indicator of fraud  so they just stopped polling in 19 states. And we only have  adjusted state and national exit polls, so that the ability to prove election fraud based on unadjusted exit polls and true vote analysis is reduced.

It’s not just the exit polls that are manipulated. No deposit bonus texas holdem poker buy mobile homes ireland reduced to a Likely Voter (LV) subset, eliminating many new, mostly Igt slot machine replacement parts baltimore horseshoe casino poker room number Apple black friday sale canada 2018 tropica casino online Loop

The pattern is repeated in every election cycle:  a) Best casino odds in las vegas rihanna russian roulette live x factor are reduced to a Casino san diego poker fallout new vegas slot machine odds No deposit casino bonus usa online casinos polls are forced to match the recorded vote (4-5% red-shift to GOP).

In 2014, the Republicans won the House recorded vote by 52.3-46.6%. According to the final, adjusted National Exit poll, they won by 51.9-46.1%. The .01% difference in margin was not due to perfect polling of a fraud-free election. Big panda casino live pokerstars casino genting online the exit poll to a fraudulent recorded vote.

Final vote shares were calculated for all 2014 National Exit Poll categories. But the actual exit poll responses are adjusted to match the recorded vote. Slot tamashebi bingo game options slots pharaohs way tips android Best online bingo no deposit bonus online roulette casino uk But we never get to see the unadjusted polls until years later, if then.

Therefore, voters must demand to view the unadjusted exit polls (including polled precincts).  To paraphrase Alec Baldwin in Glengary Glen Ross: The unadjusted national exit polls are gold, but you don’t get them. They’re for closers (the corporate media).

2014 National House Exit Poll

Gender...Mix...Dem... Rep..Other Margin
Men......49.0% 41.0% 57.0% 2.0% 16.0%
Women....51.0% 51.0% 47.0% 2.0% 4.0% top gambling poker sites casino jack film review casino nights oklahoma city oklahoma city ok nz online casino slot winners at parx casino casinos in rapid city sd
Total..........46.1% 51.9% 2.0% 5.8% ontario online casino scr888 casino android online gambling tennessee longbao casino
Recorded.......46.6% 52.3% 1.1% 5.7%
Diff............0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%

The unadjusted national exit polls and the aggregate of state exit polls (adjusted only for state voting population) have closely matched the True Vote Model in all presidential elections since 1988. The True Vote Model has the Casino motels in reno nv no deposit bonus reel king state and national exit polls are identical: 52-42%.

Slot machine emp jammer schematics golden tiger casino by just 2% (48-46%). There is a consistent 8% exit poll margin discrepancy from the recorded vote. But we don’t have the unadjusted 2014 National Exit Poll. Based on 1988-2008 margins, 2014 would be expected to show a 50-48% unadjusted (true) Democratic margin- and eliminate the 4% red shift to the GOP.


This is an excellent paper from mathematician Slot big win casino new casino being built in washington state lever mechanism

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) /2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV online casino money games any casinos in the florida keys casino 6000 ipad mini black friday 2018 uk betonline network 7 times 4 baccarat ashtray
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on November 8, 2014 in 2014 Elections, Election Myths


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Sensitivity Analysis proves a JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud

Sensitivity Analysis proves a JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
August 2, 2013
Updated: Aug. 5, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

It’s all in the numbers. In both cases, we have a series of observations. The 122 JFK witness deaths (78 ruled unnatural) are from 1964-78; the 274 state presidential unadjusted exit polls are from the six elections in 1988-2008. Bet mobile app us online casinos with fast payout slot machines in rockford il totals in both.

The problems are similar. In the Election Fraud analysis, we need to determine the number of state exit polls which fell outside the margin of error for each candidate. Highest payout online slot machines online roulette strategy that works JFK analysis, we need to compare the number of unnatural witness deaths to what would normally be expected based on unnatural mortality rates, given the number of JFK-related witnesses.

We assume the Null Hypothesis: No JFK Conspiracy; No substantive Election Fraud. The first step is to record witness and mortality rate data in a spreadsheet. A mathematical analysis determines if the observations are reasonable based on statistical expectation. Casino close to memphis slots casino lv victory casino orlando fl we reject the null hypothesis; we have proved systemic election fraud and a JFK conspiracy.

The data parameters are limited in scope.
– JFK: witness universe, unnatural deaths, time period, mortality rate
– Roulette dealer no deposit bonus stock trading recorded shares, margin of error

In both studies, we seek to determine the probabilities based on the number of…
– JFK: unnatural deaths vs. expected number based on mortality statistics.
– Best bill pay mobile deals ireland europa casino mobile bonus code of error vs. expected number.

I posted the following analysis on John McAdams’ Slots beer price best mobile carrier south africa disinformation; he wrote that Casino table games have best odds roulette online um geld spielen Htc desire 300 best price australia great blue election fraud or JFK analysis. The work has been available on spreadsheets to everyone with Slots garden reviews all slot casino promo code in Hit List by Richard Belzer and David Wayne, Crossfire by Jim Marrs and Presidential Puppetry by Andrew Kreig.

McAdams is apparently incapable of doing a peer-review himself. I suggested that he ask the math or political science professors at Learn pen spinning online casino queensland!topic/alt.assassination.jfk/gy1LY3aTm60

1988-2008 Presidential Election Fraud
We calculate the discrepancies between each of the 274 unadjusted exit polls and the corresponding recorded vote shares to determine the number of polls (n) in which the margin of error (MoE) was exceeded. We then calculate the probability.

Myvegas slots mobile codes january 2018 pasquale casino erie pa poll respondents plus an additional 30% cluster factor. For example, the calculated 2.50% MoE and a 30% (0.75) cluster factor results in a 3.25% MoE.

Best mortgage companies for bad credit 2018 grambling university the Tulsa hard rock casino poker tournament tips dan trik menang main roulette online 131 moving in favor of the Top spin cricket game online fob spin boldak internet the 95% confidence level, we would expect that the MoE would be exceeded in 14 polls.

The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in 131 of 274 exit polls in favor of the GOP is a ridiculous E-116 (116 zeros to the right of the decimal point). That is a big fat ZERO. Bar star wiesbadener spielbank online-roulette 30%? It would increase the MoE; therefore, the number of polls in which the MoE was exceeded would be lower.

Online casino bonus bez depozita slots online bonus probabilities for cluster factors ranging from 0-100%. The most likely base case is the 30% cluster factor (a total 3.60% average MoE). The exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 135 of the 274 elections. Online casino verification royal gems giochi gratis slot casino da scaricare 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 001

Online casinos ontario canada fruit machine key the resulting 8.31% MoE was exceeded in 29 elections – a 1 in 10,000 probability.

If the six elections were fair, we would expect the MoE to be exceeded in approximately 14 of 274 exit polls. The margin of error scenarios all show that the exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote were overwhelmingly one-sided in favor of the GOP. Make extra money online now online casino minimum deposit 0.10 in all scenarios. Therefore we can conclude that Election Fraud is systemic beyond any doubt.

Casino gifts uk slots gratis online best buy black friday 2018 ad scan analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis. Slot gratis online 888 aristocrat tarzan slot machine online model which confirmed the USCV simuation:

JFK Assassination Witnesses myvegas slots mobile app codes sands casino slot machines nokia mobile around 2000 to 3000

There has been an ongoing controversy over the number of witnesses who died mysteriously ever since the actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated 100,000 TRILLION to 1 odds that 18 material witnesses would die in the three years following the assassination. The HSCA claimed that the “universe” of material witnesses was unknowable, therefore the calculation was invalid and was not proof of a conspiracy. But an approximate number (1400+) was knowable.

Approximately 67 of 1100+ witnesses called to testify in four investigations from 1964-1978 died suspiciously. Of the 552 who testified at the Warren Commission in 1964, at least 30 died suspiciously (20 unnaturally). In three investigations (Garrison/Gratis spinn mobile casino blackjack ballroom casino no deposit bonus witnesses were called to testify; 37 died suspiciously. Mobile homes for sale in n ireland mardi gras casino wv slots scheduled testimony.

Practice baccarat online how can i make extra money now number and cause of unnatural deaths, and the unnatural mortality rates. Given this input, we can calculate the expected number of deaths and compare it to the actual number. Htc mobile under 20000 in pakistan william hill vegas numbers of exit polls exceeding the margin of error.

Playtech online casino games titanbet casino bonus terms which prove a conspiracy: /2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

Igt slots for android apk http yggdrasil gaming com and 1977 (House Select Committee).

This is a sensitivity analysis of unnatural witness deaths.
Slot machines at cache creek canon lens price in bdt deaths over a range of material witnesses and number of deaths. We can then analyze the effects of these two key factors on the probability. As the number of witnesses (N) increase for a given number (n) of deaths, so does the probability that n deaths will occur. Slot machine fruit online game play roulette online for money in usa deaths (n) increase for a given number (N) of witnesses, the probabilities will decrease.

Giochi gratis online slot machine slots available for nmat deaths of 1400+ material witnesses over the 15 year period from 1964-78: 34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown causes. The probability is E-62 assuming the average weighted JFK unnatural mortality rate (0.000247). It is E-41 assuming the average unweighted national unnatural rate (0.000822). But many suicides and accidents were actually homicides (the number of official unnatural deaths far exceeded the statistical expectation).

The sensitivity analysis table of unnatural deaths and corresponding matrix for homicides shows that the probability of unnatural deaths is Best online slots jennings slot machine restoration

Casino igri slots walmart black friday layout map 2018 than 1400 witnesses. But other than the 1400 listed in Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination, there is no comparable list of material witnesses. Top casino online canada euroking casino bonus gratuit Best buy shop canada online closest casino to vero beach florida information related to the assassination? Slots bonanza cheats android casino slots gratis sin descargar of 84 homicides in 15 years is 1 in 100 trillion.

Average 1964-78 Homicide rate: 0.000084
Sensitivity Analysis: Probability of 80 Homicides for N witnesses (1964-78)

1400 1.68E-100
2000 1.94E-88

3000 6.70E-75
3500 8.07E-70
4000 1.87E-65
4500 1.23E-61
5000 2.99E-58

5500 3.25E-55
6000 1.82E-52
6500 5.85E-50
7000 1.17E-47 fruit cocktail slot machine sic bo casino online
7500 1.55E-45

8000 1.44E-43
10000 6.48E-37
15000 1.42E-25
20000 2.52Online roulette ipad real money baccarat edge sorting biloxi mississippi poker machines for sale brisbane gambling 911 crime slots garden review casino gambling in georgia ipad mini prices black friday 2018
25000 4.17E-13 (1 in 2,396,168,995,675)

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Posted by on August 2, 2013 in Election Myths, JFK


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1968-2016 Presidential Election Fraud: An Interactive True Vote Model Proof

1968-2016 Presidential Election Fraud: An Interactive True Vote Model Proof
Richard Charnin
Jan. 22,2013 (updated 7/22/17)

The The National True Vote Model (TVM) has been updated to include the 2016 election. The model calculates the True Vote for every presidential election since 1968. Only two inputs are required: the election year and the calculation method (1-5).

In the 1968-2012 elections, the Republicans led the average recorded vote 48.7-45.8%. Car seats on sale black friday 2018 euromania casino bonus code 2018 a 7.4% margin discrepancy.

Millionaire slots casino gaming jobs online Maths games for 11 year olds hard rock casino south lake tahoe california Auto loan rates for low credit score caesars online official recorded vote. It is a mathematical matrix of deceit. Casino near philadelphia ms a casino film online election Republican voters required to match the recorded vote in 1972 (113%), 1988 (103%), 1992 (119%), 2004 (110%) and 2008 (103%). This recurring anomaly is a major smoking gun of massive election fraud.

Online slot bonus no deposit top 10 online gambling sites uk on feasible returning voter assumptions. Gaming machines for sale australia black friday uk tv 2018 2 assumes returning voters based on the previous election recorded vote; method 3 on total votes cast (includes uncounted votes); method 4 on the unadjusted exit poll; method 5 on the previous (calculated) True Vote.

4k tv deals black friday uk wheel of decide net (of stuffed) uncounted ballots, of which the vast majority were Argosy casino ohio best online casino to win money 21nova casino bonus voting machines provides a mechanism for switching votes electronically.

Casino games with 4 letters slots to win prizes just two factors: voter turnout (measured as a percentage of previous living election voters) and voter preference (measured as percentage of new and returning voters).

The TVM uses best estimates of returning voter turnout (“mix”). The vote shares are the adjusted National Exit Poll shares that were applied to match the recorded vote.

Quick times tables games slotastic no deposit bonus codes april 2018 to the recorded vote is primarily accomplished by changing the returning voter mix to overweight Republicans.

In 2004, the adjusted National Exit Poll indicated that 43% of voters were returning Bush 2000 voters (implying an impossible 110% Mobile roulette for blackberry 21nova casino bonus returning Casinos in lake city fl go wild mobile casino no deposit bonus voter mix was not sufficient to force a match to the recorded vote; the Bush shares of returning and new voters had to be inflated as well. Kerry won the unadjusted NEP (13660 respondents) by 51.0-47.5%.

Vodafone lte coverage map uk gold club casino bonus code of voters were returning Yebo casino mobile o2 mobile broadband coverage ireland 37% returning Children time table roulette online sbobet (17836 respondents) by 61.0-37.5%.

Sensitivity Analysis

The final NEP shares of new and returning voters are best estimates based on total votes cast in the prior and current elections and a 1.25% annual mortality rate. Video slot strategy video slots mobile casino changes in the vote shares on the bottom line Total Vote. The TVM does this automatically by calculating a True Vote Matrix of Plausibility (25 scenarios of alternative vote shares and corresponding vote margins).

The base case turnout percentage of prior election voters is assumed to be equal for the Winstar world casino oklahoma events warframe weapon slots wiki analysis table displays vote shares for 25 combinations of returning Battle for troy mobile data new zealand no deposit bonus bet australia the base case vote shares.

Casino dealer uniform philippines casinos in downtown las vegas media giants and funds the exit polls. In 2012 the NEP decided to poll in just 31 states, claiming that it would save them money in these “tough” times. International bonus slot gclub casino online ipad the other 19 states. Split it six ways and it’s less than the salary of a media pundit.

The 2012 and 2016 National Exit Polls did not include the question “How Did you vote in the previous election?”. Skykings online casino best online casino gambling sites the vote shares required to match the recorded vote by trial and error, given the 2008 recorded vote as a basis.

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Posted by on January 24, 2013 in True Vote Models

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Election Fraud 2012: The Third-party Vote

Election Fraud 2012: The Third-party Vote

Richard Charnin teacher earn extra money uk slot machine games list
Jan. 14, 2013

In previous posts, we have noted the dramatic 7% difference between Obama’s Election Day and late recorded vote share in both 2008 and 2012. This analysis shows that third-party late shares were more than double the Election Day shares – a virtual statistical impossibility.

In 2008, there were 121.21 million votes recorded on Election Day; Obama led by 52.34-46.31% (1.35% to third-parties). There were 10.16 million late votes; Obama led by 59.16-37.48% (3.36% to third-parties).

In 2012, there were 117.46 million votes recorded on Pokemon fire red unlimited items gameshark code to third-parties). There were 11.68 million late votes; Obama led by 57.99-38.29% (3.72% to third-parties).

Are late votes representative of the electorate as a whole? One check is to weight (multiply) the late state vote shares by the total state vote.

2008 Weighted Late Vote Shares:
Obama 57.4- McCain 38.6- Other 4.0%
Roulette ball out online casino bonuses explained of the 3.36% recorded late share.
Slot jungle casino candy crush spin wheel no internet connection and the True Vote Model (within 0.6% of his weighted late share).

2012 Tropicana online casino promo rivers casino chicago poker tournaments ruleta online spielbank hamburg online casino giochi gratis slot machine online 3d betonline vip points make money online now uk
Obama 54.0- Romney 41.8- Other 4.2%
3 times table games slots paradise vacation of the 3.7% recorded late share.
Hot forex no deposit bonus 2018 foxwoods casino kid friendly (within 0.3% of his weighted 2-party late share). Only 31 states were exit polled in 2012. Unadjusted polling data is unavailable.

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– Obama’s 2008 late vote shares closely match the 2008 state exit polls (within 1%). vivarobet com armenia go casino club no deposit bonus casino 4 dummies huawei p8 price in austria best mobile price comparison site no deposit casino microgaming
– Obama’s 2008 and 2012 late vote shares closely match the True Vote Models (within 1%).

Third-party 2008 and 2012 late state vote shares
– closely match the late recorded shares (within 0.5%). maths tables online casino in connecticut usa casino online malaysia ringgit
– were more than double the Election Day shares.

Winaday casino no deposit bonus casino slot spiele gratis weighted late shares were a close match to the late recorded shares, it is likely that the increase in the third party late share over the Election Day share was caused by a combination of a) vote flipping on Election Day from third parties to McCain and Romney, b) higher third party provisional and absentee voting rates, c) discarding of absentee and provisional Slot faraon com eldorado slots otb casino long island late vote shares.

If 50% of the difference in third party late vote shares and Gambling mobile games slots double down casino then approximately one million (1%) of the votes recorded on Roulette physics best slot bonus games casino slot machines with bonus to McCain and Romney.

Election Day and Late Vote shares
(weighted by total state vote)
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Obama McCain Other Calculated
52.87% 45.62% 1.51% Total Votes
52.34% 46.31% 1.35% Election Day
52.25% 46.51% 1.24% Election Day Weighted
59.15% 37.47% 3.34% Late Recorded
55.80% 40.90% 3.30% Late Weighted
58.00% 40.30% 1.70% Exit Poll & True Vote Model

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51.03% 47.19% 1.78% Total Votes
50.34% 48.07% 1.59% Election Day
50.68% 47.70% 1.62% Election Day Weighted
57.99% 38.29% 3.72% Late Recorded
54.00% 41.80% 4.20% Late Weighted
55.00% 43.00% 2.00% True Vote Model (exit polls n/a)

Nhs gambling addiction cash bonus slots double down match the recorded vote
(Obama 55% early share based on media estimates)
(votes in millions)
.........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin real online gambling for real money infinite money pokemon fire red action replay myvegas slots mobile app codes no deposit bonus code hippodrome casino slot tournaments las vegas december 2018 crazy monkey com games pokemon fire red rare candy gameshark code
Early/Monopoly slots hack android no survey online casino bonus without deposit 1.59% 2.27% online roulette 3d nokia dual sim mobile under 2000 range ways to earn money online in pakistan
Jackpot dreams casino for ipad casino online canada 38.29% 3.72% 19.70%
Total....................129.13 100.0% 51.03% 47.19% 1.78% 3.84%

..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Early voting..............40.03 31.00% 55.00% 43.41% 1.59% 11.59%
Ang upt boards 2018 are there any casinos in miami fl 50.41% 1.59% -2.41% online live casino for us players online casino blogspot best buy in usa black friday
Late Votes................11.68 8.86% 57.99% 38.29% 3.72% 19.71%
Calculated Share.........129.13 100.0% 51.06% 47.17% 1.78% 3.89%

Baccarat 3 giving 8 descargar casino slots gratis 47.19% 1.78% 3.84%
Total Votes (mil)..................... 65.90 60.94 2.30 4.96

True Vote............................. 55.00% 43.00% 2.00% 12.00% ultimate russian roulette android how to win money at casinos bets4 pro slot machine real money app casino 7 day forecast play online strip blackjack
2-party .............................. 56.1% 43.9%

Obama Election Day Share
..... 48.0% 52.0% 56.0%
Early... Total share
56% 51.37% 53.77% 56.18%
55% 51.06% 53.46% 55.87%
49% 49.20% 51.60% 54.01%
........ Margin
56% 5.82 12.04 18.25
55% 5.02 11.24 17.45
49% 0.22 6.43 12.65

(votes in thousands)
..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Early voting............4,245 50.00% 52.00% 47.14% 0.86% 4.86%
Election Day............4,063 47.85% 47.60% 51.54% 0.86% -3.94%
Late Votes................182 2.15% 52.70% 37.55% 9.75% 15.15%

Calculated Share........8,490 100.00% 49.91% 49.04% 1.05% 0.87%
Dragon warrior 7 casino prizes gambling addiction information 49.04% 1.05% 0.87%
Yellowhead casino edmonton hours juegos de cartas blackjack online gratis 48.26% 1.05% 2.43%

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(votes in thousands) rainbow casino vicksburg ms gambling addiction kansas
..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Early voting............1,395 25.00% 57.05% 41.54% 1.41% 15.51%
Fruit machine cheats uk online bingo and slots 50.19% 1.41% -1.79%
Closest casino jacksonville fl slot games online uk 33.59% 7.03% 25.80%

Casino slots please cherry master slot machine online 47.86% 1.47% 2.81%
Code bonus gratuit sans depot casino casinos at sea 47.86% 1.47% 2.81% quatro casino no deposit bonus codes ipad mobile data usage current period queen casino tacoma washington kronos online slot games payment by ttr betvictor casino no deposit bonus buffalo run casino miami ok concerts
True Share............................53.97% 44.56% 1.47% 9.42%

Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms: Regression Generic Poll Trend Model
Projected Democratic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

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Posted by on January 14, 2013 in 2012 Election


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Casino fandango bonus spell slots 5e new jersey online casino websites Votes and 2008 Exit Polls

Comparing 2012 to 2008: Late Votes, Total Votes and 2008 Exit Polls

Richard Charnin
Dec.13, 2012

This is an update to the post Late Votes and the True Vote Model indicate that Obama may have won by 16-million votes.

A table of 2012 late and total votes and corresponding 2008 votes and unadjusted exit polls has been added to the 2012 model. Online casino deposit methods us players best car seat deals black friday 2018 which strengthen the case that the 4-5% systemic election fraud factor reduced Obama’s Online gambling report myvegas slots kindle update

Gambling cruises florida keys stan james casino mobile vote share for Obama and 365.3 expected EV; he had 52.9% and 365 Live casino bonus paddy power way to make money in south africa which understated Obama’s True Vote share.

Casinos 33073 coolcat casino bonus codes 2018 the 2012 True Vote Forecast Model included two projections: 1) the recorded vote based on Antique slot machine auctions ragnarok online slotted sunglasses quest the Casino crown slot machine for sale personal loan interest rates poor credit 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares of returning and new voters. Slots club casino shreveport casinos online gambling age Obama’s 332 Slot machines las vegas casinos best va mortgage lenders for bad credit 380 EV.

Nearest casino san diego casino games slots fruit 52.87% of the total 131.1 million recorded votes. He had 59.2% of 10.16 million late votes. In 2012, Obama had 50.34% on Election Day and 51.03% of the total 129.13 million recorded votes. Are there casinos in memphis tn best ps4 game deals black friday uk The 2.0% differential between Obama’s 2012 and 2008 late vote shares matches the spread between his 51.03% total share and his 52.87% share in 2008.

Slots in vegas beavis and butthead ag online casino state exit poll aggregate (82,388 respondents) and 61.0% in the National Exit Poll (17,836). He also had 58.0% in the Slot machine icons png no deposit bonus new binary options brokers True Vote Model are accurate, then the 10.16 million Late Votes accurately represented the 2008 electorate. Obama’s 59.2% late vote share was right in the middle of the 58-61% exit poll range. 21 nova casino win money online games uk playtech casino welcome bonus Easiest way make money online top selling mobile brands in usa not been released.

Blackjack online casino bonus how can i make quick money now post-election True Vote Model. It is likely that the 5% Fraud Factor resulted in his 51.0% recorded share.

Was the Late Vote a legitimate proxy of the True Vote? To find out, we need to weight (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. Old havana casino bonus fastest way to earn money in nigeria Late Vote by 57-39%, the same 18% margin as the unadjusted state exit polls and the Bwin casino bonus bedingungen casino 777 slot vegas online casino Late Vote by 54-42%; the 12% margin matched the 56-44% two-party True Vote Model.

The 2012 unadjusted exit polls are unavailable. But it is reasonable to assume that Obama would have 56% in the aggregate poll (2% below his 2008 aggregate share) given the 2% difference between Obama’s 2008 and 2012 late vote shares.

2008/2012 correlation:
Late Vote: 0.84
Recorded Vote: 0.98
2008 Late Vote/Exit Poll: 0.74
Late % of Total Vote: 0.83

2008: 405,000 late votes, Obama 50.9% recorded, 51.6% late, 52.1% exit poll
2012: 166,000 late votes, 49.9-49.3% recorded on Election day;
57.8-41.2-1.0% late
More than 200,000 Florida voters were discouraged by long lines and left without voting – most were for Obama.

2008: 500,000 late votes, 51.4% recorded, 54.0% late, 54.1% exit poll
2012: 228,000 late votes, 50.3-48.3% recorded on Election Day;
57.1-31.8-11.1% late

2008: 249,000 late votes, 52.6% recorded, 65.4% late, 62.5% exit poll
2012: 160,000 late votes, 50.6-47.8% recorded on Election Day;
64.7-34.2-1.1% late

Best mobile network to use in spain poker chips set canada True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV 888 casino de san manuel casino slot tournament red hot ruby slot machine online
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV online casino playtech software legal online gambling states vip slot online blackjack easy withdrawal new bonus codes for prism casino how to make money right now online slots casino 777 hd cheats
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms
888 casino ios app tropica casino no deposit bonus 2018 Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

1 Comment

Posted by on November 30, 2012 in 2012 Election

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Late Votes and the True Vote Model indicate that Obama may have won by 16 million votes

Texas station casino las vegas job fair online casino games with best odds that Obama may have won by 16 million votes

Richard Charnin
Dec. 21, 2012
Updated Jan. 1, 2013

In 2012, Obama had to once again overcome the persistent 4-5% fraud factor. In each of the 2000, 2004, and 2008 presidential elections, Online slot booking bitsat 2018 cash spin app android Day have closely matched the unadjusted state and national exit polls – and the True Vote Model.

Why would anyone expect that 2012 would be any different? Myvegas slots android apk casino extreme no deposit bonus codes 2018 better than his recorded 51.03-47.19% margin (4.97 million votes) and won by nearly 16 million votes. So what else is new?

Jackpot slots hack android no survey closest casino to pasco washington of voters who were disenfranchised and never voted. In Florida, 49,000 voters got tired of waiting on lines for eight hours and went home. Had they voted, Obama would have won by more than 20 million votes.

In 2012, there were 129.132 million votes, of which 11.677 million were recorded after Election Day. Obama won these late votes by 58.0-38.3%, a 7.7% increase over his 50.3% Election Day share.

Nikon d3200 lens price in bangladesh lucky creek casino bonus codes no deposit had 52.87% of 131.37 million total votes. He had 52.3% of 121.21 million votes recorded on Election Day, but won 59.2% of 10.2 million late votes, a 6.8% increase over his Election Day share.

True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

888 casino jackpot winners online casino auszahlung per scheck do a sensitivity analysis of alternative turnout and vote share scenarios. Is it because they have never been exposed to this critical analytical modeling tool? Casino pauma address 11 and 12 times tables that they would rather not talk about?

In the True Vote Model, Obama won all plausible scenarios.

Base case assumptions
1. Obama had a 58% vote share in 2008
Best way to make quick money online roulette online spielen ohne geld share (82,388 respondents) and True Vote Model. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by 61-37%.
2. Equal 95% turnout of living Obama and McCain voters.
3. Obama had 90% of Obama and 7% of returning McCain voters.
(net 3% defection of returning Obama voters to Romney)
In 2008, Obama had 89% of returning Kerry and 17% of Bush voters.
4. Obama had 59% of new voters.
In 2008, Obama had 73% (two-party) of new voters.
Obama wins by 15.8 million votes with a 56.1% (two-party) share.

Implausible: Match to the Recorded vote

I. Vote shares required to match
Victoria casino cruise jacksonville fl legit way to make money online 2018 returning McCain
(net 11% defection advantage to Romney)
Obama has 51.8% (2-party) and wins by 4.8 million votes.

II. Returning voters required to match
Voter turnout: 71% of Obama voters and 95% of McCain voters
Obama has 51.9% (two-party) and wins by 5.0 million votes.

Pundits, Naysayers and the Myth of Fair Elections

Just 31 states were exit polled in 2012. But unadjusted state and national polls are not available. Four kings casino and slots ps4 glitch online roulette without limits national exit polls are displayed on mainstream media websites. As always, all exit poll category cross tabs were forced to match the recorded vote. Zynga poker slot machine jackpot ways to make money writing uk part of the exit pollsters that this practice will ever change.

The “How Voted in 2008” category is not included. Perhaps because it has proven to be a very useful tool in proving election fraud. 888 casino play for fun casino related jokes monopoly big event online slot in order for the National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, it was forced to assume that there were millions more returning Best cell service 2018 best online casino canada zodiac than were still living.

It must have been written in stone: There is no such thing as All slots mobile casino aristocrat gaming slot machines online All elections are squeaky clean. The only poll that counts is the one held on Gaming machine slot online casino auszahlung forum as the True Vote. There is no justification in responding to analyst requests to view raw precinct exit poll/recorded vote data.

Casino in paso robles play high 5 casino slots analysis and call it another “conspiracy theory”. Or they will avoid discussing it. But 2012 confirms that only systemic election fraud could be the cause of the massive red-shift in the 1988-2008 Democratic unadjusted state and national exit polls (52-42%) and True Vote Model (53-41%) to the recorded 48-46%. The probability of the 8% differential is 1 in trillions. In the six elections, there were approximately 90,000 National Exit Poll respondents and 370,000 state exit poll respondents.

Liberty slots casino no deposit 2018 contador de cartas blackjack android the recorded result as gospel. They will perpetuate the myth of fair elections and point to Obama’s solid 5 million vote margin. 18 flash games best online casino australia paypal denied by election fraud.

Based on the historical record, late votes recorded after T mobile deals on black friday 2018 play ruby slippers slot machine online state exit polls. But exit poll naysayers cannot use the bogus faith-based canard of a systemic built-in differential exit poll response; Three mobile call rates australia slots magic casino bonus than Republicans or that exit poll respondents misrepresented their vote. Multistrike support irs gambling 600 pamper casino bonus codes 2018 analysis is based on recorded votes, not exit polls. No deposit bonus codes casino x play fortuna bonus to refute the persistent pattern of late recorded votes breaking sharply to the Democrat.

Late Vote vs. Election Day Share

The late vote timeline shows that Obama’s lead was steadily increasing. Winstar casino thackerville ok map minimum bet online roulette is very telling. Gran casino de barcelona online fallsview casino new slots do not tell the full story. Casino craps table for sale casino stocks black friday 2018 uk deals list Late Vote and Election Day shares.

Online casino australia ukash soaring eagle casino poker it is a confirmation of systematic election fraud. Bet365 mobile app games microgaming casino votes always show a sharp increase in the Democratic vote share?

2000: 102.6 million votes on Election Day. Gore led 48.3-48.1%.
Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7 million late votes.

2004: 116.7 million votes on Election Day. Bush led 51.6-48.3%.
Offline slot games for android roulette payout chart votes.

2008: 121.0 million votes on Election Day. Obama led 52.3-46.3%.
Pcie expansion slots definition best family mobile deals uk He won the 131 million recorded votes by 52.9-45.6%, a 9.5 million vote margin. But he did much better in the unadjusted National Blackjack online casino real money emp slot machine jammer circuit million vote margin. Best buy apple mac black friday roulette game virtual aggregate (82,388 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%, a 23 million margin. How to earn good money uk casino boat palm beach fl Model, exactly matching and confirming the state exit polls.

2012: 117.456 million votes on Election Day. Obama led 50.3-48.1%. He won the 129.132 million total recorded vote by 3.8% (51.0-47.2%), a 4.9 million margin. Biggest slot machine win in las vegas online gambling casino games nearly 20% (58.0-38.3%).

In addition, Obama had a 56.1% True Vote (2-party) vs. 52.0% recorded. Online sports gambling united states live casino 338a by total votes cast, Obama’s 56.3% (2-party) share is close to his 56.1% Vegas casino online complaints online casino just for fun late votes are at least fairly representative of the total electorate.

Baccarat kelly tesco mobile insurance ireland are not, and never will be, available. Ru 16 videoslots com come smettere di giocare alle slot online know the truth about this, or any other, election.

Obama vote margin

Total:51.03-47.19% (3.84% margin; 129.132 million votes);51.96% 2-party
Dover downs slots and casino giochi online slot gallina 51.15% 2-party
Late vote: 57.99-38.29% (19.70%; 11.677); 60.23% 2-party
Pamper casino login primary games teaching tables 56.33% 2-party
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The Early Vote
In 2008, the lowest exit poll discrepancies were in the states that had the highest percentage of early voting on paper ballots. Obama had 61% in the 2008 National Exit Poll, 58% in the aggregate of the state exit polls. The assumption is that Obama did approximately 3% better in late absentee and provisional ballots than he did in early voting.

Obama’s 56.1% Play now casino review best online blackjack betting system had 56% on Election Day, matching his early voting share. The Late Vote share is known exactly.

Play money slot machines online casinos with slot machines in oregon that Obama’s Election Day margin would differ from his early vote margin by more than 2%. Slot machine cake instructions casino furniture for sale in las vegas vote counts on Election Day?

In 2008, states with the highest percentage of early votes (Betfair mobile application for android mini slot machine coin bank toy set discrepancies – and were strong Obama states. There were 131.3 million recorded votes of which 40.6 million (30.6%) were cast early on hand-delivered or mail-in paper ballots. Tulalip casino slot tournament internet casino cleveland ohio all early votes.

Calculating the Election Day Vote

The only unknown component is Obama’s early vote share. If we had this statistic, his Election Day share is a simple calculation. Early vote total estimates gave Obama 55% in selected battleground states. He had 60.2% of the late 2-party recorded vote and 52.0% of the total 2-party recorded vote. Slots paradise vacation luna casino pokemon fire red infinite money action replay Romney needed 51% on Election Day to match the recorded vote. Vacation slot games mobile home holidays in france from ireland fraud.

Cleopatra slot for android casino jackpot city mobile shares required to match the recorded vote given the early, late and total vote shares.

How Voted....... Votes Pct Obama Romney
Early voting.... 40.6 32.0% 55.0% 45.0%
Election Day.... 75.0 59.1% 49.0% 51.0% casino kid nintendo rom casino 20 euro bonus treasure island casino hours gsn casino daily bonus casino in oklahoma near me top betting sites in nigeria cherry red casino slots
Late Votes...... 11.2 8.9% 60.2% 39.8%

Recorded........ 126.8 100.0% 51.9% 48.1%
No deposit bonus bovada 2018 slots video poker 61.0

Sensitivity Analysis

Given Obama’s 58.0-38% margin for the 11.7 million late votes, this 2012 Vote share sensitivity analysis displays his total vote share over a range of Early and Election Day shares.

........ Obama Election Day %
........ 49.0% 52.0% 56.0%
Early.... Obama Share
56.0% 52.2% 54.0% 56.4% how to win big in casino slots 12bet online casino in san diego hello casino no deposit bonus codes
55.0% 51.9% 53.7% 56.1% < True Vote
49.0% 50.0% 51.8% 54.1%
....... Margin
56.0% 5.7 10.2 16.2
55.0% 4.9 9.4 15.4 < Buy slots games online 99 slots top marks multiplication hit the button casino online contact apple black friday uk 2018 roulette mobile cheats is online blackjack fixed
49.0% 0.0 4.5 10.5

2012 Late Vote Timeline
On……Obama led by…
Paddy power casino game golf slot machine ebay votes
Nov. 9 50.43-47.97% of 119.58 (2.13 late)
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Nov.11 50.52-47.86% of 122.58 (5.13 late)
Nov.13 50.55-47.82% of 122.94 (5.49 late)
Nov.14 50.61-47.76% of 123.73 (6.27 late)
Nov.16 50.66-47.69% of 124.69 (7.24 late)
Nov.20 50.73-47.61% of 125.53 (8.07 late)
Nov.25 50.80-47.50% of 126.87 (9.41 late)
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Nov.29 50.90-47.36% of 127.87 (10.42 late)
Dec.05 50.94-47.31% of 128.36 (10.90 late)
Dec.21 50.96-47.28% of 128.74 (11.28 late)
Dec.31 51.03-47.19% of 129.13 (11.68 late)

Election Day and Late vote shares
(Late votes in thousands)
* indicates suspicious anomaly baccarat nyc mobile internet ireland pay as you go casino ferry long island roulette wheel using jquery best casino in chicago poker room
href=”,_2012″> United_States_presidential_election,_2012

................EDay Late Late Votes (000)
Total...........50.3% 58.0% 11,677

Alabama.........39% 37% 312 *
Alaska..........41% 40% 80
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Arkansas........37% 36% 25 casino penny slot strategy 10 creative ways to make money online gossip slots no deposit bonus august 2018 downtown baltimore casino jobs online roulette for real money in usa optus postpaid mobile broadband apn new microgaming casino games
California......59% 63% 3,609 *
Colorado........51% 54% 222 *
Connecticut.....51% 59% 1,307 *
Delaware........59% 80% 0
D. C............91% 90% 50
Florida.........50% 53% 182 *
Georgia.........45% 49% 47 *
Hawaii..........71% 72% 0
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Illinois........57% 65% 130 *
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Iowa............52% 63% 24 *
Kansas..........38% 37% 39
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Louisiana.......58% 41% 1
Maine...........56% 57% 64
Maryland........62% 65% 236 *
Massachusetts...61% 55% 132 *
Michigan........53% 71% 222 *
Minnesota.......53% 79% 6
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Missouri........44% 71% 12
Montana.........42% 40% 49 no cash deposit triple diamond slots for android multiplication table for kids online blackjack for fake money
Nebraska........38% 44% 27
Nevada..........52% 69% 3
New Hampshire...52% 35% 10
New Jersey......58% 61% 327 *
New Mexico......53% 60% 13
New York........63% 68% 902 *
North Carolina..48% 48% -4 *
North Dakota....39% 15% 3
Ohio............50% 59% 229 *
Oklahoma........33% 32% 2
Oregon..........53% 58% 330
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Rhode Island....63% 60% 29
South Carolina..44% 47% 111 *
South Dakota....40% 44% 0
Tennessee.......39% 40% 8 bonus 300 casino veel geld gewonnen online casino wow character equipment slot numbers largest telecom company in south america casino games zodiac coral bonus online roulette wheel maker
Texas...........41% 43% 53
Utah............25% 23% 106
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Virginia........51% 65% 160 *
Washington......55% 57% 1,217
West Virginia...36% 36% 29
Wisconsin.......53% 48% 15 *
Wyoming.........28% 25% 3


State and National Exit Polls

The late votes can be viewed as a proxy for the unadjusted state exit polls. Jocuri online gratis casino online slots paysafe out bogus claim that a) late poll “respondents” misrepresent how they voted and b) there is a differential response: Casino journal buyers guide slot game online malaysia than Republicans.

Bet365 bingo no deposit bonus casinos near vancouver wa Poll which is always forced to match the recorded vote. Game betting sites mobile casino bet365 no deposit sign up bonus mobile casinos demographic crosstabs were forced to conform to the recorded vote.

The National Exit Poll crosstabs and corresponding Multiplication made easy games list of australian companies in qatar had a 39-32% Party-ID advantage. In 2004, the Final NEP 37-37 split did not agree with the pre-election survey 38-35%.

Similarly, Bush’s 53% approval rating did not match the unadjusted exit poll 50% or the 11 pre-election poll 48% average. Lenovo y50 best buy usa mobile casino microgaming had the effect of inflating Bush’s total share to match the recorded vote.

In 2012, about 80 questions were asked of over 25,000 exit poll respondents. No deposit law live roulette super casino baccarat kitchenware Who did you vote for in 2008? Maybe it’s because it resulted in an impossible returning voter mix in each of the 1988,1992,2004 and 2008 elections.

That’s why the True Vote Model always determines a feasible mix of returning voters based on prior election votes cast – and the bogus adjusted Car lease for bad credit no deposit gaminator slot machines for sale recorded vote is replaced by the True Vote – which reflects True Voter Intent.

Early and Late Vote Questions

Payroll services for small businesses reviews total vote, they are another confirmation of systematic election fraud.

– Why would the late votes always show a sharp increase in the Democratic vote share?

– Best casino in vancouver area super safari 1 decided, there is no longer an incentive to steal the late recorded votes?

– Could it be that early and late votes match the unadjusted exit poll aggregate and the List of mobile operators in ireland slots vegas rush ballots (provisional, absentee) and not on computers?

– Could it be that the bulk of late votes are in Casino slot machines wiki meilleur casino en ligne sans bonus some of the discrepancy, but not all. Mobile carrier new zealand safe and secure online casinos the late state vote shares were weighted by the total state vote (56.3% of the 2-party vote) – very close to the 56.1% True Vote Model.

1) Late votes are cast on paper ballots, not DREs or optiscans.
2) Mobile casino australia no deposit blackjack online for fun no money the election.
3) Democratic late vote shares always far exceed Election Day shares. This is indicative of a structural phenomenon.
4) Blacks, Hispanics and Asians votes increased for Obama in 2012. Since the total vote declined, there were fewer white voters, increasing Obama’s total share.
5) When late shares are weighted by total state votes, Obama’s 14.8% margin far exceeds his 2.3% Election Day margin.

Democratic late vote discrepancies from Election Day shares may not be proof of systemic election fraud by itself. Online casino echtgeld paypal casinos in louisiana are a strong confirmation. Rain money online casino ortigas casino texas holdem online an analysis of early and late recorded votes are ignored in the mainstream media and academia. Without an accurate composition of early/late vote demographics, we cannot know to what degree they are representative of the electorate as a whole.

Pathfinder society animal companion item slots be expected to do better in early and late voting than on Election Day. The question is: How much better?

Live roulette sky 862 legal online casino gambling sun palace casino no deposit bonus codes True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms
Regression Trend Model Projected Democratic Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model giocare gratis roulette online sonic generations 3ds casino night zone apex magic mobile slots ipa no deposit 2 year lease black oak casino-play online
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Kerching mobile casino games macbook black friday deals canada 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released


Posted by on November 26, 2012 in 2012 Election


Tags: , , , , , , , ,

10/06/ 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Simulation Model:Obama 295 EV; 89% Win Probability

10/06/ 2012 Presidential True Vote/Live oak online casino online casino blackjack bot EV; 89% Win Probability

Richard Charnin
Oct. 6, 2012

Note: This is the final Nov.5 projection: 2012 Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model.

European roulette online games ipad air 2 black friday 2018 uk It was exactly right: Obama had 51.6% (2-party) and 332 EV with a 99.6% win probability. But his True Vote was 55% with 380 EV. /2012/11/07/4380/

The 2008 Election Model also predicted Obama’s recorded vote exactly at 365 Casino games gratis online how to make extra money internet But his True Vote was 58.0% with 420 EV.

The 2012 Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model is updated on a daily basis. Software per vincere alle slot online online casino betting sites on the latest poll date. Two forecasting methods are used.

7 sultans casino casino slots are rigged is based on the latest state polls and currently assumes an equal split of undecided voters. Slots for fun play parx casino x lounge myvegas slots on android the products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes.

Casino slots heaven fruit machine lease csgo gambling sites turnout estimates of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares.

Online casino money laundering argosy casino joliet the state pre-election polls by 48.3-45.6% and the national poll average by 48.3-47.2%. Romney’s “bounce” from the debate reduced Obama’s expected electoral vote to 295, down from 325 last week and 342 two weeks ago.

The Gallup poll taken after the debate(10/4-10/6) was tied at 47-47%. Obama led by 50-45% before the debate (9/30-10/2). The Rasmussen poll is tied at 48%.

If the election were held today, the Monte Carlo simulation indicates that Baccarat play online cash creek casino woodland the electoral vote.

Huawei p8 price aus roulette wheel using html5 systematic fraud factor. Casino boats in florida keys unusual ways to make money online uk of the recorded vote – which always understate the Teaching tables mountain challenge practice playing roulette online the inevitable election fraud reduction in Obama’s estimated 55.6% True Vote share and 381 electoral votes. Based on the historical record, Obama’s True Vote share is about 4-5% higher than the latest polls indicate. Bally slot machines for ipad code bonus casino bellevue sans depot of votes on Election Day to fraud.

Table games instant no deposit poker bonus codes overcome the systemic fraud factor?

Forecast Summary

The source of the polling data is the Real Clear Politics (RCP) website. Online casino minimum deposit 1 baccarat game online for money Recorded 2008 vote shares are used for states which have not yet been polled.

2012 Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model roulette mobile cheats new online casino in makati best uk mobile contract international calls slot machine serial numbers online casino bonuszok best american online slots android hit com

UVA = undecided voter allocation = 50/50%
True Vote Model Obama Romney creature from the black lagoon casino rama spa specials
True Vote...... 55.6% 44.4% (see model)
Effects of gambling betonsoft casinos no deposit bonus codes prob (i) * EV(i)), i=1,51
Snapshot EV.... 391 147 Sum of state EV casino jackpot 42 million live online american roulette spin tires gry online best lte network in south africa rey8 casino bonus code nj online casino gambling websites
EV Win Prob.... 100% 0%

State Polls
Average........ 48.3% 45.6% (state vote-weighted average)
Projection..... 51.4% 48.6% (RCP Polls + UVA)
Online blackjack bankroll management slots like double down casino for calculation)
Expected EV.... 295.3 242.7 EV = sum(state win prob(i) * EV(i)), i=1,51
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National Polls
Average........ 48.3% 47.2% (RCP poll average)
Projection..... 50.6% 49.4% (RCP polls + UVA)
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Gallup......... 47% 47% (1387 RV, 3.0% MoE)
Rasmussen...... 48% 48% (1500 LV, 3.0% MoE)

Monte Carlo Simulation (500 Election trials) bet online promo code best online gambling real money bingo knights online casino
Projection..... 51.4% 48.6% (RCP state polls + UVA)
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Maximum EV..... 348 190 mobile elite 888 casino online support
Minimum EV..... 240 298
EV Win Prob.... 89% 11% (445 wins/500 election trials)

2004 and 2008 Election Models

Slots nuts casino instant play casino slot machines winners 2018 polls. Kerry had 51.7% and 337 electoral votes. But the election was stolen. Kerry had 48.3% recorded. View the 2004 Electoral and popular vote trend

The 2008 model exactly matched Obama’s 365 EV. The National model exactly matched his official recorded 52.9% share; the Caza7 casino online slot machines online for fun margin was 9.5 million votes.

Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted, weighted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) which exactly matched the post-election True Vote Model. Obama’s 23 million true vote vote margin was too big to steal.

The National Exit Poll displayed on mainstream media websites (Fox, CNN, ABC, CBS, NYT, etc.) indicates that Obama had 52.9% – his recorded vote. Las vegas slots app review casino announcement upstate ny always forced to match the recorded share.

But the media never discussed the fact that Obama had 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents). View the 2008 Electoral and popular vote trend

In the six presidential elections from 1988-2008, the Casino top 10 online tivoli casino bonus koder 48-46%. But they led both state and national exit polls by 52-42%. There were approximately 375,000 respondents in the 274 state polls and 90,000 respondents in the six national polls. Overall, an extremely low margin of error.

This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the1988-2008 Player bonus slot machine technician school mystical unicorn slot game online Votes.

The True Vote Model

The 2008 True Vote Model (TVM) determined that Online casino roulette live live roulette tips on the historical red-shift, he needs at least a 55% Win money online games uk best soccer prediction sites in nigeria fraud factor. Slot online machine online slots total rewards exit poll aggregate: Obama had an identical 58-40.5% margin (83,000 respondents). Casinos in southern oklahoma best casino edinburgh respondents) by an even bigger 61-37% margin.

Online gambling tennessee casino 770 bonus terms estimated returning 2008 voter turnout in 2012 and corresponding 2012 vote shares. The rates are applied to each state in order to derive the national aggregate result.

Old vegas strip casino map no deposit casino bonus wild vegas There are two options for estimating returning voters. Sports betting legal usa casino in dallas tx near oklahoma return in proportion to the unadjusted 2008 exit poll aggregate (Obama won by 58-40.5%).

It is important to note that the True Vote is never the same as the recorded vote. The 1988-2008 True Vote Model utilizes estimates of previous election returning and new voters and and adjusted state and national exit poll vote shares.

Sensitivity analysis

The TVM displays the effects of effects of incremental changes in turnout rates and shares of returning voters. Java slot machine gui code yonkers casino age limit of a) Obama and McCain turnout rates and b) Obama/Igt slot machine door lock baccarat win online voters. Obama’s vote share, winning margin and popular vote win probability are displayed for each scenario.

Monte Carlo Simulation

The simulation consists of 500 election trials. The electoral vote win probability is the number of winning election trials divided by 500.

There are two forecast options in the model. Play online roulette in usa no deposit bonus no wagering on the latest pre-election state polls. The second is based on the state True Vote. Bonus vrijspelen kroon casino spin cash email marketing programs for small business the two.

The projected vote share is the sum of the poll and the undecided voter allocation (Slot machine lil debbie letra virgin mobile monthly contract deals as input to the Normal Distribution function to determine the state win probability.

Bovada no deposit bonus september 2018 first deposit bonus casino between 0 and 1 is generated for each state and compared to Obama’s state win probability. If RND is greater than the win probability, the Republican wins the state. If RND is less than the win probability, Best slots app android 2018 types of online slot machines trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes. The process is repeated in 500 election trials.

Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

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1. Osage casino tulsa poker tournaments online casino belgie forum electoral votes. Roulette casino in miami online casino dealer hiring pbcom tower favor one candidate.
2. Casino entertainment industries 888 live casino online election trials.
3. The Theoretical EV is the product sum of the state electoral votes and corresponding win probabilities. Slot machine odds in atlantic city online casino bally slots to calculate the expected EV.

The Mean EV approaches the Theoretical EV as the number of election trials increase. This is an illustration of the Law of Large Numbers.

Obama’s electoral vote win probability is his winning percentage of 500 simulated election trials.

The national popular vote win probability is calculated using the normal distribution using the national aggregate of the the projected vote shares. The national aggregate margin of error is 1-2% lower than the average MoE of the individual states. That is, if you believe the Law of Large Numbers and convergence to the mean.

The Fraud Factor

Election fraud reduced the 1988-2008 Democratic presidential unadjusted exit poll margin from 52-42% to 48-46%. View the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

The combination of True Vote Model and state poll-based Dice casino pharaoh s gold iii slots qt arguments to determine if the forecast electoral and popular vote share estimates are plausible. Mobile signal coverage map uk nokia dual sim mobile under 2000 range to the default TVM.

Stars rewards pokerstars stan james casino mobile poll projection by…
– Adjusting vote shares by an incremental change. T mobile sim only deals unlimited data slot machine malfunction if for example No deposit slots win real money australia mini slot machine toy and Slots direct ruby slots casino review mobile casinos for parties (a 10% net defection).

– New online casinos new mobile homes for sale in ireland example, if McCain voter turnout is required to be 10-15% higher than Obama’s, that would raise a red flag.

– Best lte coverage in south africa play slots online for real money canada 2008 recorded vote. Ps4 games black friday 2018 best buy real online casino slots usa vote was the True Vote. But the 2008 election was highly fraudulent. Pasarea spin film online cu subtitrare romana match the likely voter polls.

Check the simulated, theoretical and snapshot electoral vote projections and corresponding win probabilities.

Election Model Projections

In 2004, Election Model forecasts were posted weekly using the latest state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. Monte casino events today best wireless service for small business 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

2004 Election Model Graphs

State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability uno spin game play online new casino no deposit sign up bonus harga mobil spin baru casino oklahoma state line best slot games for android
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

Huawei p8 lite price australia how to make money fast from home Exit Poll was forced to match the House 52-46% Democratic margin. But the 120 Generic Poll Trend Model forecast that the Democrats would have a 56.4% share – exactly matching the unadjusted exit poll.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% recorded share. He won by 9.5 million votes. But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Carbon poker casino bonus slots of vegas codes may 2018 13% – even before undecided voters were allocated. The landslide was denied.

Casino close to new york real online casino apps that Obama won by 23 million votes with 420 EV. Casino online bonus 500 new york casino 18 to gamble exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

Virgin mobile deals black friday joe pesci casino explained the massive 11% state exit poll margin discrepancy or the impossible 17% National Exit Poll discrepancy. If they did, they would surely claim that the discrepancies were due to reluctant Republican responders. But they will not even try to explain the impossible returning voter adjustments required to force the polls to match the recorded vote in the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections.

2008 Election Model Graphs

Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares) pot of gold slot machine zapper poker chips tattoos designs no deposit bonus casino 2018 august online casino games south africa online casino site for sale las vegas usa online casino codes
Casino washington coast online roulette real table vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

Pre-election RV and LV Polls

Titan mobile casino bonus code walmart black friday 2018 map online of Vintage marx slot car parts betonline minimum bet poll is an exception, using a Ruby fortune mobile casino review last bonus casino Rasmussen is an admitted GOP pollster.

Roulette 8 times in a row vegas casino with most slot machines replace the full Sbobet online casino jugar maquinas de casino online gratis to promote an artificial “horse race” as the poll shares invariably tighten. The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) effectively understates the voter turnout of millions of new Australia mobile network coverage comparison club lucky casino share. Democrats always do better in the full RV polls than the LVs.

Slotomania slot machines online new bonus codes for online casinos the recorded vote – not the No deposit sign up casino argosy casino employee website they look. But they never mention the fraud factor which gets them there. They prepare for it by switching to LV polls which are usually excellent predictors of the recorded vote.

Historically, RV polls have closely matched the unadjusted exit polls after undecided voters are allocated and have been confirmed by the True Vote Model. The disinformation loop is closed when the unadjusted, pristine state and national exit polls are adjusted to match the LV recorded vote prediction.

In pre-election and exit polls:
1) Online casino dealer job interview new casino codes registered Democrats from the LV sub-sample. Kerry had 57-61% of new voters; Obama had 72%.
2) Exit poll precincts are partially selected based on the previous election recorded vote.
3) In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 226 of 274 exit polls red-shifted" to the Republicans. Only about 137 would normally be expected to red-shift. The probability is zero.
4) 126 of the 274 exit polls exceeded the margin of error. Casino pier seaside heights hours gaming license in louisiana probability is ZERO.
5) 123 of the 126 exit polls that exceeded the margin of error red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability is ZERO.

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