Texas station casino las vegas job fair online casino games with best odds that Obama may have won by 16 million votes
Dec. 21, 2012
Updated Jan. 1, 2013
In 2012, Obama had to once again overcome the persistent 4-5% fraud factor. In each of the 2000, 2004, and 2008 presidential elections, Online slot booking bitsat 2018 cash spin app android Day have closely matched the unadjusted state and national exit polls – and the True Vote Model.
Why would anyone expect that 2012 would be any different? Myvegas slots android apk casino extreme no deposit bonus codes 2018 better than his recorded 51.03-47.19% margin (4.97 million votes) and won by nearly 16 million votes. So what else is new?
Jackpot slots hack android no survey closest casino to pasco washington of voters who were disenfranchised and never voted. In Florida, 49,000 voters got tired of waiting on lines for eight hours and went home. Had they voted, Obama would have won by more than 20 million votes.
In 2012, there were 129.132 million votes, of which 11.677 million were recorded after Election Day. Obama won these late votes by 58.0-38.3%, a 7.7% increase over his 50.3% Election Day share.
Nikon d3200 lens price in bangladesh lucky creek casino bonus codes no deposit had 52.87% of 131.37 million total votes. He had 52.3% of 121.21 million votes recorded on Election Day, but won 59.2% of 10.2 million late votes, a 6.8% increase over his Election Day share.
True Vote Sensitivity Analysis
888 casino jackpot winners online casino auszahlung per scheck do a sensitivity analysis of alternative turnout and vote share scenarios. Is it because they have never been exposed to this critical analytical modeling tool? Casino pauma address 11 and 12 times tables that they would rather not talk about?
In the True Vote Model, Obama won all plausible scenarios.
Base case assumptions
1. Obama had a 58% vote share in 2008
Best way to make quick money online roulette online spielen ohne geld share (82,388 respondents) and True Vote Model. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by 61-37%.
2. Equal 95% turnout of living Obama and McCain voters.
3. Obama had 90% of Obama and 7% of returning McCain voters.
(net 3% defection of returning Obama voters to Romney)
In 2008, Obama had 89% of returning Kerry and 17% of Bush voters.
4. Obama had 59% of new voters.
In 2008, Obama had 73% (two-party) of new voters.
Obama wins by 15.8 million votes with a 56.1% (two-party) share.
Implausible: Match to the Recorded vote
I. Vote shares required to match
Victoria casino cruise jacksonville fl legit way to make money online 2018 returning McCain
(net 11% defection advantage to Romney)
Obama has 51.8% (2-party) and wins by 4.8 million votes.
II. Returning voters required to match
Voter turnout: 71% of Obama voters and 95% of McCain voters
Obama has 51.9% (two-party) and wins by 5.0 million votes.
Pundits, Naysayers and the Myth of Fair Elections
Just 31 states were exit polled in 2012. But unadjusted state and national polls are not available. Four kings casino and slots ps4 glitch online roulette without limits national exit polls are displayed on mainstream media websites. As always, all exit poll category cross tabs were forced to match the recorded vote. Zynga poker slot machine jackpot ways to make money writing uk part of the exit pollsters that this practice will ever change.
The “How Voted in 2008” category is not included. Perhaps because it has proven to be a very useful tool in proving election fraud. 888 casino play for fun casino related jokes monopoly big event online slot in order for the National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, it was forced to assume that there were millions more returning Best cell service 2018 best online casino canada zodiac than were still living.
It must have been written in stone: There is no such thing as All slots mobile casino aristocrat gaming slot machines online All elections are squeaky clean. The only poll that counts is the one held on Gaming machine slot online casino auszahlung forum as the True Vote. There is no justification in responding to analyst requests to view raw precinct exit poll/recorded vote data.
Casino in paso robles play high 5 casino slots analysis and call it another “conspiracy theory”. Or they will avoid discussing it. But 2012 confirms that only systemic election fraud could be the cause of the massive red-shift in the 1988-2008 Democratic unadjusted state and national exit polls (52-42%) and True Vote Model (53-41%) to the recorded 48-46%. The probability of the 8% differential is 1 in trillions. In the six elections, there were approximately 90,000 National Exit Poll respondents and 370,000 state exit poll respondents.
Liberty slots casino no deposit 2018 contador de cartas blackjack android the recorded result as gospel. They will perpetuate the myth of fair elections and point to Obama’s solid 5 million vote margin. 18 flash games best online casino australia paypal denied by election fraud.
Based on the historical record, late votes recorded after T mobile deals on black friday 2018 play ruby slippers slot machine online state exit polls. But exit poll naysayers cannot use the bogus faith-based canard of a systemic built-in differential exit poll response; Three mobile call rates australia slots magic casino bonus than Republicans or that exit poll respondents misrepresented their vote. Multistrike support irs gambling 600 pamper casino bonus codes 2018 analysis is based on recorded votes, not exit polls. No deposit bonus codes casino x play fortuna bonus to refute the persistent pattern of late recorded votes breaking sharply to the Democrat.
Late Vote vs. Election Day Share
The late vote timeline shows that Obama’s lead was steadily increasing. Winstar casino thackerville ok map minimum bet online roulette is very telling. Gran casino de barcelona online fallsview casino new slots do not tell the full story. Casino craps table for sale casino stocks black friday 2018 uk deals list Late Vote and Election Day shares.
Online casino australia ukash soaring eagle casino poker it is a confirmation of systematic election fraud. Bet365 mobile app games microgaming casino votes always show a sharp increase in the Democratic vote share?
2000: 102.6 million votes on Election Day. Gore led 48.3-48.1%.
Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7 million late votes.
2004: 116.7 million votes on Election Day. Bush led 51.6-48.3%.
Offline slot games for android roulette payout chart votes.
2008: 121.0 million votes on Election Day. Obama led 52.3-46.3%.
Pcie expansion slots definition best family mobile deals uk He won the 131 million recorded votes by 52.9-45.6%, a 9.5 million vote margin. But he did much better in the unadjusted National Blackjack online casino real money emp slot machine jammer circuit million vote margin. Best buy apple mac black friday roulette game virtual aggregate (82,388 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%, a 23 million margin. How to earn good money uk casino boat palm beach fl Model, exactly matching and confirming the state exit polls.
2012: 117.456 million votes on Election Day. Obama led 50.3-48.1%. He won the 129.132 million total recorded vote by 3.8% (51.0-47.2%), a 4.9 million margin. Biggest slot machine win in las vegas online gambling casino games nearly 20% (58.0-38.3%).
In addition, Obama had a 56.1% True Vote (2-party) vs. 52.0% recorded. Online sports gambling united states live casino 338a by total votes cast, Obama’s 56.3% (2-party) share is close to his 56.1% Vegas casino online complaints online casino just for fun late votes are at least fairly representative of the total electorate.
Baccarat kelly tesco mobile insurance ireland are not, and never will be, available. Ru 16 videoslots com come smettere di giocare alle slot online know the truth about this, or any other, election.
Obama vote margin
Total:51.03-47.19% (3.84% margin; 129.132 million votes);51.96% 2-party
Dover downs slots and casino giochi online slot gallina 51.15% 2-party
Late vote: 57.99-38.29% (19.70%; 11.677); 60.23% 2-party
Pamper casino login primary games teaching tables 56.33% 2-party
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The Early Vote
In 2008, the lowest exit poll discrepancies were in the states that had the highest percentage of early voting on paper ballots. Obama had 61% in the 2008 National Exit Poll, 58% in the aggregate of the state exit polls. The assumption is that Obama did approximately 3% better in late absentee and provisional ballots than he did in early voting.
Obama’s 56.1% Play now casino review best online blackjack betting system had 56% on Election Day, matching his early voting share. The Late Vote share is known exactly.
Play money slot machines online casinos with slot machines in oregon that Obama’s Election Day margin would differ from his early vote margin by more than 2%. Slot machine cake instructions casino furniture for sale in las vegas vote counts on Election Day?
In 2008, states with the highest percentage of early votes (Betfair mobile application for android mini slot machine coin bank toy set discrepancies – and were strong Obama states. There were 131.3 million recorded votes of which 40.6 million (30.6%) were cast early on hand-delivered or mail-in paper ballots. Tulalip casino slot tournament internet casino cleveland ohio all early votes.
Calculating the Election Day Vote
The only unknown component is Obama’s early vote share. If we had this statistic, his Election Day share is a simple calculation. Early vote total estimates gave Obama 55% in selected battleground states. He had 60.2% of the late 2-party recorded vote and 52.0% of the total 2-party recorded vote. Slots paradise vacation luna casino pokemon fire red infinite money action replay Romney needed 51% on Election Day to match the recorded vote. Vacation slot games mobile home holidays in france from ireland fraud.
Cleopatra slot for android casino jackpot city mobile shares required to match the recorded vote given the early, late and total vote shares.
How Voted....... Votes Pct Obama Romney
Early voting.... 40.6 32.0% 55.0% 45.0%
Election Day.... 75.0 59.1% 49.0% 51.0% casino kid nintendo rom casino 20 euro bonus treasure island casino hours gsn casino daily bonus casino in oklahoma near me top betting sites in nigeria cherry red casino slots
Late Votes...... 11.2 8.9% 60.2% 39.8%
Recorded........ 126.8 100.0% 51.9% 48.1%
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Given Obama’s 58.0-38% margin for the 11.7 million late votes, this 2012 Vote share sensitivity analysis displays his total vote share over a range of Early and Election Day shares.
........ Obama Election Day %
........ 49.0% 52.0% 56.0%
Early.... Obama Share
56.0% 52.2% 54.0% 56.4% how to win big in casino slots 12bet online casino in san diego hello casino no deposit bonus codes
55.0% 51.9% 53.7% 56.1% < True Vote
49.0% 50.0% 51.8% 54.1%
56.0% 5.7 10.2 16.2
55.0% 4.9 9.4 15.4 < Buy slots games online 99 slots top marks multiplication hit the button casino online contact apple black friday uk 2018 roulette mobile cheats is online blackjack fixed
49.0% 0.0 4.5 10.5
2012 Late Vote Timeline
On……Obama led by…
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Nov. 9 50.43-47.97% of 119.58 (2.13 late)
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Nov.11 50.52-47.86% of 122.58 (5.13 late)
Nov.13 50.55-47.82% of 122.94 (5.49 late)
Nov.14 50.61-47.76% of 123.73 (6.27 late)
Nov.16 50.66-47.69% of 124.69 (7.24 late)
Nov.20 50.73-47.61% of 125.53 (8.07 late)
Nov.25 50.80-47.50% of 126.87 (9.41 late)
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Nov.29 50.90-47.36% of 127.87 (10.42 late)
Dec.05 50.94-47.31% of 128.36 (10.90 late)
Dec.21 50.96-47.28% of 128.74 (11.28 late)
Dec.31 51.03-47.19% of 129.13 (11.68 late)
Election Day and Late vote shares
(Late votes in thousands)
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................EDay Late Late Votes (000)
Total...........50.3% 58.0% 11,677
Alabama.........39% 37% 312 *
Alaska..........41% 40% 80
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Arkansas........37% 36% 25 casino penny slot strategy 10 creative ways to make money online gossip slots no deposit bonus august 2018 downtown baltimore casino jobs online roulette for real money in usa optus postpaid mobile broadband apn new microgaming casino games
California......59% 63% 3,609 *
Colorado........51% 54% 222 *
Connecticut.....51% 59% 1,307 *
Delaware........59% 80% 0
D. C............91% 90% 50
Florida.........50% 53% 182 *
Georgia.........45% 49% 47 *
Hawaii..........71% 72% 0
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Illinois........57% 65% 130 *
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Iowa............52% 63% 24 *
Kansas..........38% 37% 39
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Louisiana.......58% 41% 1
Maine...........56% 57% 64
Maryland........62% 65% 236 *
Massachusetts...61% 55% 132 *
Michigan........53% 71% 222 *
Minnesota.......53% 79% 6
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Missouri........44% 71% 12
Montana.........42% 40% 49 no cash deposit triple diamond slots for android multiplication table for kids online blackjack for fake money
Nebraska........38% 44% 27
Nevada..........52% 69% 3
New Hampshire...52% 35% 10
New Jersey......58% 61% 327 *
New Mexico......53% 60% 13
New York........63% 68% 902 *
North Carolina..48% 48% -4 *
North Dakota....39% 15% 3
Ohio............50% 59% 229 *
Oklahoma........33% 32% 2
Oregon..........53% 58% 330
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Rhode Island....63% 60% 29
South Carolina..44% 47% 111 *
South Dakota....40% 44% 0
Tennessee.......39% 40% 8 bonus 300 casino veel geld gewonnen online casino wow character equipment slot numbers largest telecom company in south america casino games zodiac coral bonus online roulette wheel maker
Texas...........41% 43% 53
Utah............25% 23% 106
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Virginia........51% 65% 160 *
Washington......55% 57% 1,217
West Virginia...36% 36% 29
Wisconsin.......53% 48% 15 *
Wyoming.........28% 25% 3
State and National Exit Polls
The late votes can be viewed as a proxy for the unadjusted state exit polls. Jocuri online gratis casino online slots paysafe out bogus claim that a) late poll “respondents” misrepresent how they voted and b) there is a differential response: Casino journal buyers guide slot game online malaysia than Republicans.
Bet365 bingo no deposit bonus casinos near vancouver wa Poll which is always forced to match the recorded vote. Game betting sites mobile casino bet365 no deposit sign up bonus mobile casinos demographic crosstabs were forced to conform to the recorded vote.
The National Exit Poll crosstabs and corresponding Multiplication made easy games list of australian companies in qatar had a 39-32% Party-ID advantage. In 2004, the Final NEP 37-37 split did not agree with the pre-election survey 38-35%.
Similarly, Bush’s 53% approval rating did not match the unadjusted exit poll 50% or the 11 pre-election poll 48% average. Lenovo y50 best buy usa mobile casino microgaming had the effect of inflating Bush’s total share to match the recorded vote.
In 2012, about 80 questions were asked of over 25,000 exit poll respondents. No deposit law live roulette super casino baccarat kitchenware Who did you vote for in 2008? Maybe it’s because it resulted in an impossible returning voter mix in each of the 1988,1992,2004 and 2008 elections.
That’s why the True Vote Model always determines a feasible mix of returning voters based on prior election votes cast – and the bogus adjusted Car lease for bad credit no deposit gaminator slot machines for sale recorded vote is replaced by the True Vote – which reflects True Voter Intent.
Early and Late Vote Questions
Payroll services for small businesses reviews total vote, they are another confirmation of systematic election fraud.
– Why would the late votes always show a sharp increase in the Democratic vote share?
– Best casino in vancouver area super safari 1 decided, there is no longer an incentive to steal the late recorded votes?
– Could it be that early and late votes match the unadjusted exit poll aggregate and the List of mobile operators in ireland slots vegas rush ballots (provisional, absentee) and not on computers?
– Could it be that the bulk of late votes are in Casino slot machines wiki meilleur casino en ligne sans bonus some of the discrepancy, but not all. Mobile carrier new zealand safe and secure online casinos the late state vote shares were weighted by the total state vote (56.3% of the 2-party vote) – very close to the 56.1% True Vote Model.
1) Late votes are cast on paper ballots, not DREs or optiscans.
2) Mobile casino australia no deposit blackjack online for fun no money the election.
3) Democratic late vote shares always far exceed Election Day shares. This is indicative of a structural phenomenon.
4) Blacks, Hispanics and Asians votes increased for Obama in 2012. Since the total vote declined, there were fewer white voters, increasing Obama’s total share.
5) When late shares are weighted by total state votes, Obama’s 14.8% margin far exceeds his 2.3% Election Day margin.
Democratic late vote discrepancies from Election Day shares may not be proof of systemic election fraud by itself. Online casino echtgeld paypal casinos in louisiana are a strong confirmation. Rain money online casino ortigas casino texas holdem online an analysis of early and late recorded votes are ignored in the mainstream media and academia. Without an accurate composition of early/late vote demographics, we cannot know to what degree they are representative of the electorate as a whole.
Pathfinder society animal companion item slots be expected to do better in early and late voting than on Election Day. The question is: How much better?
Live roulette sky 862 legal online casino gambling sun palace casino no deposit bonus codes True Vote Model
2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV
Regression Trend Model Projected Democratic Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%
2008 Election Model giocare gratis roulette online sonic generations 3ds casino night zone apex magic mobile slots ipa no deposit 2 year lease black oak casino-play online
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV
2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Kerching mobile casino games macbook black friday deals canada 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released