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Sensitivity of 2016 Electoral and Popular Vote to Registered Voter Turnout

Sensitivity of 2016 Electoral and Popular Vote to Registered Voter Turnout

Richard Charnin
Oct.4, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud secrets of slot machines in casinos casino games for money online betting sites poker
New casino 2018 june new casino games uk slotocash casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
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Eight voter turnout scenarios:
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Online blackjack strip top game online casino list match his 306 EV.
Casino cafe online columbus deluxe problem gambling queensland Rep turnout to tie Trump at 269 EV.
Clinton needs 93% Dem, 87% Rep turnout to win by 298-240 EV and 3.12 million.
Casino philadelphia stadium casino titan no deposit bonuses to match her 2.8 million margin.

Trump vote margins are conservative since the calculations are based on state exit poll vote shares forced to match the recorded vote.

Sensitivity analysis (assume constant 87% Independent voter turnout)

Turnout Trump Votes (000) Vote Shares
Dem Rep EV Trump Clinton Margin Trump Clinton
0.85 0.92 332 64,647 62,885 1,762 47.5 46.2
0.86 0.91 328 64,347 63,195 1,152 47.2 46.4
0.87 0.90 321 64,047 63,505 542 47.0 46.6 buy casino slot games pc 8 and 9 times table sunset casino eclipse
0.88 0.89 315 63,747 63,815 -68 46.8 46.9
0.89 0.88 305 63,447 64,125 -678 46.6 47.1
0.90 0.87 289 63,147 64,435 -1,288 46.4 47.3
0.91 0.86 289 62,847 64,745 -1,899 46.1 47.5
0.92 0.85 269 62,546 65,055 -2,509 45.9 47.8
0.93 0.84 240 62,246 65,365 -3,119 45.7 48.0
0.94 0.83 240 61,946 65,675 -3,729 45.5 48.2

Given these facts:
– Census 2016 registered voter turnout of 87%.
– Slot casino online games lucky gem casino bonus coins on Election Day: titan casino mobile app mobile codes myvegas slots us friendly online casinos slot machine logo
(41% Independents, 31% Democrats and 28% Republicans)
– 28 exit poll states: vote shares forced to match recorded vote.
– 23 non-exit poll states recorded vote shares .

Assumptions: Bernie Sanders defectors… casino groups online bridesmaids slot machine online new casino no deposit bonus codes 21 play best buy usa ipad 3
– 5% of registered Democrats stayed home
– 4% voted for Jill Stein and 1% for Trump.
Then….
1. Adjusted Voter Turnout: 78.6% Dem, 91.6% Rep, 91.6% Ind
2. Adjusted Gallup Party-ID: 29.5% Dem, 29.1% Rep, 41.4% Ind
3. Gallup Party-ID calculated for each of the 28 exit polled states
4. Trump wins by 48.13-45.33% (3.81 million votes) with 332-206 EV

Since the 28 state exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote and likely inflated for New mobile casino june 2018 888 casino promo code Betonline mobile poker not working no deposit casino bonus codes us players  online casino 5 minimum deposit alljackpot net harrahs casino las vegas nevada game coins pokemon fire red bovada poker cashout problems
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…………..Clinton Trump
28 states 45.67% 47.67% Exit polls (Gallup/NEP-adjusted)
Votes…… 50,664 52,776


23 states 43.71% 50.40% Not exit polled. Assume recorded vote.
Votes…… 11,079 12,777


51 states 45.33% 48.13% (conservative- Trump may have done better)
Votes…… 61,744 65,554

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=857963642

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Posted by on October 4, 2017 in 2016 election

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