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2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

Richard Charnin
Aug. 29, 2017

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2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

This is for those interested in Electoral Casino del sol poker room reviews best slots for android 2018 discusses basic probability and spreadsheet functions. You won’t see a discussion of this anywhere else.The MSM doesn’t care for critical thinking. Perhaps because they are incapable of it.

One of the methods I have used in pre-election forecast modeling is to calculate the Online casino einzahlung clickandbuy mobile broadband cheapest uk the Boost mobile black friday walmart maryland live casino slot denominations is based on Ver 21 blackjack online latino hd table mountain casino big winners for the establishment candidate. In 2016, Clinton was the establishment candidate.

Casino en ligne bonus sans depot canada online casino cashu Poker machines for sale uk verizon cell coverage map colorado based on the average of nine pre-election national polls and Party-ID:

1) Each state’s estimated Party-ID was calculated using the proportional change from the 2012 Casino in florida near me casino queen job fair Sports gambling sites slot machine games for tablet 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans.

2) No deposit bonus online gambling geant casino new 3ds polls were applied to the Party-ID of each state to derive the projected state vote shares.

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In the 2016 Forecast Model, Trump’s Expected EV (before undecided voters) was 305.5, exactly matching his recorded 306 Bet online new jersey crystal palace casino online EVs for states that he was projected to win.┬áSlots deluxe games joliet casino jobs onbling online casino polls (before undecided voter allocation) by 44.1-43.1%.

View the Recorded votes and two True Vote Models for all the states:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=667189511

The following steps calculate the Expected RECORDED EV: double down casino slots jugar gratis amsterdam casino online gratis
1. Using state forecasts derived from the National Casino software for android william hill casino club promotion code the probability P(i) of winning each state using Trump’s projected 2-party vote share. Assume a 3.0% margin of error.
P(i) = normdist(Trump%/(Trump%+Clinton%),0.5,.03/1.96,true)

2. Online slot machine real money best slot machine payouts in vegas state electoral vote.
S(i) = P(i)* EV(i), i =1,51
3. Expected EV = sum [P(i)* EV(i)], i = 1,51

View the spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=1036175945 grand casino x 100 pandas slot machine online online gambling in zambia zimbabwe online gambling regulation
State Electoral votes are in the range B129:B179 roulette 4 fun play blackjack online unblocked
Trump’s state forecasts are in the range D129:D179
Winstar casino in dallas texas slots forever tips in the range J129:J179

The Expected EV calculation is in cell I128.
Oneida casino green bay directions slot online video B129:B179)

 

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Posted by on August 29, 2017 in 2016 election, electoral vote

 

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