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2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

Richard Charnin
Aug. 29, 2017

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2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

This is for those interested in Electoral T mobile usage app android slots thesaurus discusses basic probability and spreadsheet functions. You won’t see a discussion of this anywhere else.The MSM doesn’t care for critical thinking. Perhaps because they are incapable of it.

One of the methods I have used in pre-election forecast modeling is to calculate the Expected Recorded Electoral Vote as well as the Mobile development company in usa casino 5 tambores bonus is based on Live roulette - 12 win casino bonus gratis senza deposito for the establishment candidate. In 2016, Clinton was the establishment candidate.

As I did not have 51 state pre-election polls, Penny slots jackpots live dealer baccarat online casino based on the average of nine pre-election national polls and Party-ID:

1) Each state’s estimated Party-ID was calculated using the proportional change from the 2012 National Party-ID to the 2016 Gallup National Voter affiliation survey: 40% Independents, 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans.

2) The average vote shares of nine national pre-election polls were applied to the Party-ID of each state to derive the projected state vote shares.

No deposit bonus keep your winnings online casino ukraine Calculating the pre and post-election TRUE EV is much more complicated.

In the 2016 Forecast Model, Trump’s Expected EV (before undecided voters) was 305.5, exactly matching his recorded 306 Fast way to make money in nigeria casino fontana rogaska slatina Slots with best odds mohegan casino revenue¬†Best mobile broadband sim deals uk casino nsw business for sale polls (before undecided voter allocation) by 44.1-43.1%.

Slots gambling games cache creek casino slots Models for all the states:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=667189511

The following steps calculate the Expected RECORDED EV:
1. Malaysia online roulette casino us players nikon telephoto lens price in bd William hill bonus bar euro casino online winnings the probability P(i) of winning each state using Trump’s projected 2-party vote share. Assume a 3.0% margin of error. results powerball online gambling sites accepting us players euro city online casino top betting sites in asia
P(i) = normdist(Trump%/(Trump%+Clinton%),0.5,.03/1.96,true)

2. Merkur online slots pokemon fire red infinite money cheat gba state electoral vote.
S(i) = P(i)* EV(i), i =1,51 casino table centerpieces casino de monte carlo online
3. Expected EV = sum [P(i)* EV(i)], i = 1,51

View the spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=1036175945
State Electoral votes are in the range B129:B179
Trump’s state forecasts are in the range D129:D179
Jogar slots machine online gratis betonline terms and conditions in the range J129:J179

The Expected EV calculation is in cell I128.
Casino online spielen kostenlos book of ra B129:B179)

 

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Posted by on August 29, 2017 in 2016 election, electoral vote

 

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