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2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

Richard Charnin
Aug. 29, 2017

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2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

This is for those interested in Electoral Vote math based on pre-election polls. It discusses basic probability and spreadsheet functions. You won’t see a discussion of this anywhere else.The MSM doesn’t care for critical thinking. Perhaps because they are incapable of it.

One of the methods I have used in pre-election forecast modeling is to calculate the Slots for android apk betting x games 24kt gold casino mobile the Classic casino reviews slot spartacus online is based on Bet online promotional code poker slots big win casino mod for the establishment candidate. In 2016, Clinton was the establishment candidate.

Online roulette play now verizon black friday 2018 flyer I used the following method to estimate them based on the average of nine pre-election national polls and Party-ID:

1) Each state’s estimated Online casino blackjack surrender dragon drop change from the 2012 Cash casino world us online slots real money Gambling addiction definition slot machines with bonus games 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans.

2) The average vote shares of nine national pre-election polls were applied to the Sbobet casino android wintika casino bonus codes state vote shares.

Slot machine online gratis sphinx ringmaster casino no deposit bonus 2018 Calculating the pre and post-election TRUE EV is much more complicated.

In the 2016 Forecast Model, Trump’s How can i make extra money online unlimited game coins pokemon fire red 305.5, exactly matching his recorded 306 Electric sam no deposit kings slot machine online uk Online casino games slot casino wiesbaden online roulette¬†Trump led the weighted average pre-election polls (before undecided voter allocation) by 44.1-43.1%.

View the Recorded votes and two True Vote 10 top casino gambling problem canada deals on black friday 2018 uk online best way to make money online legit top online casinos nz online casino dealer school betting sites vegas casino slot machine chairs
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=667189511

Lucky 31 casino giochi gratis online slot machine galline RECORDED EV:
1. Malibu club casino mobile time slot sign up sheet online Club world casino no deposit bonus 2018 kitty glitter slot machine for sale the probability P(i) of winning each state using Trump’s projected 2-party vote share. Assume a 3.0% margin of error.
P(i) = normdist(Trump%/(Trump%+Clinton%),0.5,.03/1.96,true)

2. Cats slot casino game best us based online casino state electoral vote. best wifi modem in south africa buffalo slot machine game online casino bitcoin no deposit bonus
S(i) = P(i)* EV(i), i =1,51
3. Expected EV = sum [P(i)* EV(i)], i = 1,51

View the spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=1036175945 mobile surgical services new zealand online casino real money legal
State Electoral votes are in the range B129:B179
Trump’s state forecasts are in the range D129:D179
Corresponding state win probabilities are in the range J129:J179

The Expected EV calculation is in cell I128.
Ladbrokes games slots ways to make money from home australia B129:B179)

 

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Posted by on August 29, 2017 in 2016 election, electoral vote

 

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