Jan. 27, 2016
2014 VT Governor: The Democrat won, but why was it so close?
Three election models indicate that the 2014 Vermont governor election was almost stolen. Shumlin (D) defeated Milne (R) by just 2,000 votes (46.4-45.3%)
Obama won Vermont in 2012 by 95,000 recorded votes (66.1-31.0%).
True Vote Model
Base Case Assumptions
1) 55% turnout of Obama and 65% turnout of Romney voters ice age video game best led tv deal black friday 2018 casino bonus no deposit cashable bonus sans depot casino francais en ligne
2) Shumlin had 86% of returning Obama voters
3) Milne had 93% of Romney voters
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Shumlin won by 27,000 votes: 54.3-40.2% top gambling cities world easy ways to make fast cash online aristocrat gaming slot machines online
In order to match the recorded vote, Milne needed 22.4% of Obama voters.
Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares
Worst case scenario: Shumlin has 82% of returning Casino share casino galabingo co k virgin mobile data usage app android business sun palace casino online bonus codes for dreams casino fruit machine tips
Shumlin wins by 16,000 votes with 51.5%.
Best case scenario: Shumlin has 90% of Obama and 6% of Romney voters.
Shumlin wins by 38,000 votes with 57.1%.
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Worst case scenario: 53% of Obama and 67% of Romney voters return in 2014.
Shumlin wins by 22,000 votes with 53.0%.
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Shumlin wins by 32,000 votes with 55.6%.
Voter Turnout Model
Party registration: Democrats 47%- Republicans 31%- Independents 22%
59.9% of registered voters turned out.
7 play casino gmbh online casinos for us players Republicans turned out.
Shumlin wins by 53.4-39.2%
To match the recorded vote, Milne needed 19% of Democrats, 89% of Republicans and 40% of Independents.
Uncounted Vote Model
Given: 11,000 of 205,000 votes cast were uncounted.
Assumption: Shumlin had 75% of the uncounted votes.
Shumlin won by 55.4-38.9%.
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Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll trucchi video slot online live casino online roulette
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004