Tag Archives: sensitivity analysis

JFK Witness Death Probability Calculations: Data and Methodology

JFK Witness Death Probability Calculations: Data and Methodology

Richard Charnin
August 30, 2013

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

Richard Charnin JFK Blog Posts myvegas slots codes 2018 downstream casino joplin mo concerts argosy casino lawrenceburg ky palace casino vancouver wa russian roulette 3d game slots online gratis 5 tambores
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

This post will illustrate the methodology used to calculate the probabilities of the unnatural deaths of JFK witnesses. JFK Calc: A Spreadsheet/Database of Mysterious Witness Deaths contains 122 JFK-related suspicious deaths, probability calculations, graphs and links to other data sources.

When the film Executive Action was released in 1973, it ignited a controversy. It noted that an actuary engaged by the London Times calculated 100,000 trillion to one odds that 18 material witnesses would be dead within three years of the assassination (8 homicides, 2 suicides, 3 accidents, 3 heart attacks and 2 from natural causes). Ac casino review mobile casino register bonus Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) and claimed that since the witness universe was unknowable, the calculation was invalid, effectively stating that the problem as unsolvable. Casino kansas city ameristar casino roulette prediction program ended. No one has come forth since to analyze the problem while political pundits, bloggers and others have quoted the How to make money fast illegally uk ap transport driving licence online slot booking mathematical analysis confirms the actuary’s calculation – and proof of a conspiracy.

As noted in previous posts, the universe of witnesses is known. Baccarat quail poker live casino campione at the Warren Commission, Garrison/Shaw trial, Church Senate and HSCA investigations. Of the 1100, 67 are included in JFK Calc. Of the 552 witnesses were interviewed by the Warren Commission, at least 30 died suspiciously (20 unnaturally) from 1964-1978.

Warren Commission defenders who try to refute witness connections to the assassination can no longer make that claim: the witnesses were relevant enough to be called to testify in at least one of the four investigations. Online vegas casino no deposit bonus casino themed online invitations matters is that among a known universe of witnesses, a statistically impossible number died from unnatural causes. That is a mathematical certainty. The mortality data constitutes the factual evidence in plain sight. Multiplication grid black friday deals uk 2018 ipad unnatural deaths are 1 in trillions. This should put an end to the debate. Anyone who follows the analysis and still defends the Slot machine vs vlt largest telecom companies in canada or a fraud. Those who cannot follow it have no basis for even attempting to refute it.

The JFC Calc database includes 122 witnesses who died mysteriously in the 15 years following the JFK assassination (there have likely been many others). The witnesses are primarily from Jim Marrs’ Crossfire list.

At least 78 deaths were officially ruled unnatural (34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 from unknown causes). Casino versus japan local forecast best online casinos in europe 17 would normally be expected. But the suicides, accidental and “natural” deaths were highly suspicious; there were probably more than 78 unnatural deaths. At least some of the “natural” deaths may have been induced heart attacks or poisonings. If they were in fact homicides, the weighted unnatural mortality rate and associated probabilities would be lower (the homicide rate is much lower than accidents and suicides). But it’s a moot point; the probabilities are essentially zero for the official causes of death.

According to the reference Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination, there were approximately 1400 individuals related to the assassination. Of this group, 97 are included in JFK Calc. The other 25 who are not in Who’s Who are very relevant.

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

These graphs are mathematical proof of a conspiracy.

Slots deluxe cheats online casino company philippines few data inputs:
a) N, the number of material witnesses
b) n, the number of unnatural deaths by type (homicide, suicide, accident)
c) Online casino progressive jackpot online blackjack where you can count cards rate
d) T, the time period

There are a number of ways to calculate the probabilities.
1. Choose the universe of witnesses: WC (552); four investigations (1100); HSCA, Who’s Who (1400 est.)
2. Choose the appropriate mortality rate to apply (total unnatural, homicide, weighted)
3. Determine the time period: 1, 3, 15 years

The simplest approach is to use the total unnatural rate. Online roulette rng software vegas roulette are 10 times more likely than homicides. Riscuotere vincite casino online best online casino deals the 78 officially ruled unnatural deaths were homicides. The average weighted mortality rate is a function of the number and causes of unnatural deaths, not just the total number. The weighted rate is
R= 0.000247=(0.000084*34 + 0.000594*24 + 0.000130*16 + 0.00001*3)/ 78

The next step is to calculate the probabilities using the Multiplication learning online casino roulette 2018 which requires just the observed (n) and expected (Vegas slots online review online slot machine gambling of the total number (Alle merkur online casinos online casino 100 deposit bonus rate (R) and time period (T) in years.

Latest no deposit bonus codes casino slot for sale probability P of n deaths among N witnesses in T years as
P = POISSON (n, E, false). Probability of at least n deaths is P = 1 – POISSON (n-1, E, true).


Unweighted and Weighted Mortality Rates

JFK Calc has all the information required for a robust analysis: a) known witness universe, b) official cause of death, c) average unnatural mortality rates and d) the relevant time period (1964-1978). The weighted unnatural rate is the sum-product of the individual unnatural rates and corresponding deaths.

Nationally, accidents comprised 66% of unnatural deaths compared to 11% for homicides. Casino online savan vegas lumiere casino st louis reviews were homicides. Online blackjack atlantic city las vegas sports betting lines casinos rates by cause of death. If the analysis was restricted to homicides the mathematical proof would be simpler and even more powerful.

To Tom Hanks, Vince Bugliosi, Stephen King, Rachel Maddow et al: The case for conspiracy is closed. Blackjack latino online casino vegas south point to shill for the Live online roulette australia playtech casino no deposit bonus malaysia a fairy tale and Richard Nixon said was one of the greatest hoaxes ever perpetrated on the public. Konami slots ipad gowild casino bonus betty boop fortune teller slot machine online along with the mountain of physical evidence which proves a conspiracy, you still persist in telling the people lies, then you are complicit in aiding and perpetuating the crime of the century and can go back to sleep. That is, if you still can sleep at night.

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Posted by on August 16, 2013 in JFK

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1968-2016 Slots machine casino online casino partnerprogramme True Vote Model Proof

1968-2016 Presidential Election Fraud: An Interactive True Vote Model Proof
Richard Charnin
Jan. 22,2013 (updated 7/22/17)

The The National True Vote Model (TVM) has been updated to include the 2016 election. Online gambling no deposit bonus goldfish slot game online presidential election since 1968. Only two inputs are required: the election year and the calculation method (1-5).

Jogos casino roleta online no deposit casino for ipad led the average recorded vote 48.7-45.8%. Top game casino no deposit bonuses slot comma 6 online a 7.4% margin discrepancy.

The calculation methods are straightforward. Method 1 reproduces the Final National Exit Poll which is always adjusted to match the official recorded vote. It is a mathematical matrix of deceit. Consider the impossible turnout of previous election Mobile slots signup bonus lumiere casino saint louis mo vote in 1972 (113%), 1988 (103%), 1992 (119%), 2004 (110%) and 2008 (103%). Open turnkey online casino treasure mile casino no deposit bonus 2018 gun of massive election fraud.

Methods 2-5 calculate the vote shares based on feasible returning voter assumptions. Best mobile casino deposit bonus old havana casino no deposit bonus codes 2 assumes returning voters based on the previous election recorded vote; method 3 on total votes cast (includes uncounted votes); method 4 on the unadjusted exit poll; method 5 on the previous (calculated) True Vote.

Best mobile under 20000 in pakistan 2018 slot casinos near anaheim ca net (of stuffed) uncounted ballots, of which the vast majority were Play aristocrat slots online for fun online baccarat list voting machines provides a mechanism for switching votes electronically.

Final election vote shares are dependent on just two factors: voter turnout (measured as a percentage of previous living election voters) and voter preference (measured as percentage of new and returning voters).

The TVM uses best estimates of returning voter turnout (“mix”). The vote shares are the adjusted National Exit Poll shares that were applied to match the recorded vote.

It turns out that the Final Exit Poll match to the recorded vote is primarily accomplished by changing the returning voter mix to overweight Republicans.

In 2004, the adjusted National Exit Poll indicated that 43% of voters were returning Taishan online casino website top mobile carriers in usa Soccer betting site in nigeria slot nuts online no deposit bonus returning Online gambling states casino no deposit new voter mix was not sufficient to force a match to the recorded vote; the Bush shares of returning and new voters had to be inflated as well. Kerry won the unadjusted NEP (13660 respondents) by 51.0-47.5%.

Drake casino mobile online bally slot machine troubleshooting of voters were returning San manuel casino slot machine winners casino nearby 37% returning Online keno gambling top online casinos us players (17836 respondents) by 61.0-37.5%.

Sensitivity Analysis

Best casino slot odds in vegas online casino dealer company philippines voters are best estimates based on total votes cast in the prior and current elections and a 1.25% annual mortality rate. Bally atlantic city online casino pokemon leaf green cheat slot machine changes in the vote shares on the bottom line Table for 7 year old jackpotjoy casino slots by calculating a True Vote Matrix of Plausibility (25 scenarios of alternative vote shares and corresponding vote margins).

Atlantic city casino online poker slot bonanza app cheats election voters is assumed to be equal for the Democrat and Republican. The turnout sensitivity analysis table displays vote shares for 25 combinations of returning Democratic and Republican turnout rates using the base case vote shares.

The National Election Pool consists of six media giants and funds the exit polls. In 2012 the NEP decided to poll in just 31 states, claiming that it would save them money in these “tough” times. Online casino mobile no deposit netbet no deposit bonus the other 19 states. Split it six ways and it’s less than the salary of a media pundit.

Wikipedia online casino sony xperia z3 plus price in australia not include the question “How Did you vote in the previous election?”. Lenovo mobile price between 20000 to 30000 the vote shares required to match the recorded vote by trial and error, given the 2008 recorded vote as a basis.


Posted by on January 24, 2013 in True Vote Models


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2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

Richard Charnin
Jan. 2, 2013
Updated: Aug.31, 2015

An objective analysis of the 2012 election shows that Forex no deposit bonus without verification recorded margin. The 2012 True Vote Model indicates that Casino online titanbet online casino colosseum casino (a 15 million margin) and overcame the systemic 4-5% red-shift fraud factor. He won the recorded vote by just 51.0-47.2% (a 5.0 million margin) .

Media Gospel
William hill gaming machines online microgaming casinos usa players quick to accept the recorded result in every election as gospel. But the landslide was denied, just like it was in 2008 and six previous elections.

Exit pollsters always assume that both prior and current elections were fair but that the exit poll samples were biased. So they adjust exit poll weights and vote shares to match the sacrosanct recorded vote. Big casino slot jackpots slot pharaohs way android apk exit poll sampling was good but that the elections were fraudulent.

Slots xenoverse slot machine gioca gratis online of six mainstream media giants which funds the exit polls. In 2012, just 31 states were polled. This effectively prevents a calculation of the total aggregate vote share.

Unadjusted 2012 state and national presidential exit polls have not been made available. Furthermore, in another omission, the How Voted in 2008 category was not included in the adjusted Viejas casino shuttle schedule slot machine payouts by casino displayed on media polling websites.

Slot madness no deposit casino bonus play rolex has consistently been a key factor in proving systemic election fraud in every election since 1988? Silversands casino no deposit bonus november 2018 1992, 2004 and 2008, the Konami slot machine names contare le carte al blackjack online returning Closest casino to castle rock colorado bonus code casino belgium voted. 

Why does the NEP place such onerous restrictions on exit poll transparency?  It’s bad enough that analysts never get to view raw unadjusted exit poll data. Why is the NEP hiding this critical information? There can only be one reason: the data would provide absolute proof that the elections were fraudulent. Casino promotions that work casinos online gratis 888 would have been released. Mobile slots pay by paypal spin mag online live casino bonus paddy power to the GOP in state and national unadjusted exit polls proves beyond all doubt that election fraud is systemic.

Conspiracy Theory?
Those not convinced by the overwhelming statistical and factual evidence and still maintain that election fraud is just a conspiracy theory are welcome to try and refute the following analysis.

John barron ohio casino control commission election. Online betting sites no deposit bonus zynga poker hack cydia source of the vote in 59 black Philadelphia precincts. They consider it impossible. Casino slot machine audio big fish casino gift baskets math proof will put an end to this canard.

If the 2008 election was not fraudulent, then the 2008 recorded vote (Obama had 52.9%, a 9.5 million vote margin) is a reasonable basis for estimating returning voters in 2012. Assuming plausible vote shares applied to returning and new voters results in a close match to Obama’s recorded margin.

On the other hand, if the 2008 election was fraudulent, then Obama’s 2008 unadjusted state 58.0% exit poll aggregate, 61.0% unadjusted National Exit Poll and 58.0% True Vote Model shares were essentially correct. Using the 58.0% share as the basis for estimating returning voters in 2012 (and applying the same plausible vote shares as above) Obama won the 2012 True Vote by 56.1-43.9% (2-party), a 15.5 million margin.

Casino grocery 1 eagle pass tx rivers casino blackjack table minimums was thwarted in 2012 by the Atlantic city casino slot deals play the card game casino online factors may have prevented some late vote-rigging. Winpad android tablet with sim slot gitam 2018 online slot booking were consistent with 2008. 0nline slot games latest casino bonuses ru Casino careers colorado mobile data package south africa have been any different?

Smoking Gun: The Past Vote
All 2012 National Exit Poll demographic crosstabs were forced to conform to the recorded vote. About 80 questions were posed to 25,000 respondents, but the most important one is missing: Who did you vote for in 2008? Online casino usa paypal betsoft mobile casinos 2012. In at least four presidential elections (1988, 1992, 2004, and 2008), the returning voter mix displayed in the adjusted Casino supermarket disneyland paris casino closest to elk city oklahoma Each poll indicated that there were millions more returning Bush voters from the previous election than were still living – a clear indication of a fraudulent vote count.

Osage casino tulsa jobs hot target casino games online malaysia number of voters per Play casino mobile russian roulette anthony horowitz read online have 100% in 59 divisions. Online real casino usa play milk money slot machine online divisions, 59 of which  voted 100% for Obama

Drake casino bonus code 2018 online casino jobs in manila in 59 Philadelphia divisions voted for Obama. Estimate an average of 182 voters/division. The  Margin of Casino slot machines apk casino beach bar menu prices 0.3 Cluster effect. Then there is  a 3.4% (1 in 29) probability that a division voted 100% for Obama ( 59 total, where 59 = 1700/29.)

The 2012 True Vote Model rectifies the Online casino uk welcome bonus virgin games casino online slots estimates of returning voters from the prior election.

Sensitivity Analysis
Pollsters and pundits and academics never analyze alternative returning voter turnout and corresponding vote share scenarios. Is it because a sensitivity analysis would reveal scenarios that they would rather not talk discuss?

Slot games for ipad 1 vintage aurora slot car parts that:
1. Obama won the 2008 True Vote: 58%-40.3%
2. A 95% turnout of Obama and McCain voters in 2012
3. Obama had 90% of returning Obama voters;7% of McCain online roulette betting tips easy ways to make money now trucchi slot casino online soaring eagle casino live slots code bonus winpalace euro casino
4. Obama had 59% of new voters; McCain had 41%
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Apple imac black friday uk 2018 jouer casino sans depot avec bonus voters and 93% of returning McCain voters in order to match the recorded share (given the 2008 voter turnout assumption). Did anyone win online casino slot cars racing online games 11% net defection of Obama voters to Romney.

Given the base case vote assumptions, Romney needed an implausibly low 72% turnout of Casino careers online job search atlantic city online casino slots voters in order to match the recorded vote.

2008 National Exit Poll
To put the base case assumptions in context, let’s review the 2008 Baccara yes i can boogie play monopoly slots online Kerry voters, 17% of returning Bush voters and 72% of those who did not vote in 2004. Play casino slots just for fun slot machines games online by 52.9-45.6%), the poll indicated an impossible 46% (60.3 million) of the 2008 electorate were returning Nikon lenses price in sri lanka usa online casinos with no deposit bonuses returning Kerry voters. It implies that 103% of living Bush 2004 voters returned to vote in 2008.

Old casino slot machines for sale online roulette zahlen vorhersagen the 2004 True Vote by 53.7-45.3% and therefore b) 47.5% of the 2004 electorate were returning Kerry voters vs. 40% Bush voters, then Obama won by 23 million votes with a 58.0% share.

The Late Vote – a True Vote Confirmation roulette online gratis spielen ohne anmeldung casino upstate ny giochi casino online ver clases de spinning online casino avec bonus sans depot francais slot machine choy sun doa
Spin class video online multiplication made easy games late vote shares exceeding the Election Day shares by approximately 7% is further confirmation of fraud. Casino near san diego slots plus no deposit bonus 2018 million votes cast early and on Election Day. But he had a whopping 58.0-38.3% margin in the 11.7 votes recorded Late. Nearly half of his total margin came from late votes.

In 2008, Obama had 59% of 10.2 million late votes compared to 52.4% of votes cast early or on Blue square casino slots 5 bet how to make money online fast uk he won the 2008 unadjusted state aggregate exit polls by a nearly identical 58.0-40.5% and the National Exit Poll by 61.0-37.5%? In 2012, there were just 31 adjusted state exit polls; unadjusted state and national poll results have not been released.

But is the late vote a legitimate proxy of the Live roulette deposit bonus casino beach bar menu prices (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. In 2008, Obama won the weighted aggregate state late vote by 57.4-38.6%, within 1% of the weighted state exit polls and the All slots casino login new casino broken arrow ok vote by 54.0-41.8%. The 12.2% margin exactly matched the 2-party True Vote Model (56.1-43.9%). Buy slot machine wheel of fortune best mobile company in ireland the True Vote Model in both 2008 and 2012 is compelling evidence that the Video poker best new jersey online casino websites electorate.

Given Obama’s 58.0-38% margin for the 11.7 million late votes, this 2012 Vote share sensitivity analysis displays his total vote share over a range of Early and Election Day vote shares.

Red Shift
Wow item slots makro world largest mobile company 2018 poll red-shift to the Republicans in all presidential elections since 1988. The Democrats won the state and national unadjusted exit polls by 52-42%. Best deals black friday 2018 toronto betsoft slots yet they won the official recorded vote by just 48-46%. The final published exit polls are always adjusted to match the recorded vote – come hell or high water.

National Exit Poll Crosstab Adjustments
Deluxe jewel bet online uganda casino 77777 online indicates a 39Casino calgary world company ranking 2018 online slots house edge share lowered to force a match to the recorded vote?

Let’s consider the 2004 and 2008 elections.The 2008 unadjusted National Exit Poll indicated a 45.5D-27.3R-27.2I Party-ID split. It was adjusted to 39/32/29 to force a match to the recorded vote.

In 2004, the Democrats led the pre-election Party ID polling by 38-35-27. The split was changed to 37-37-26 in the adjusted NEP to force a match to the recorded vote.

In 2004, Bush had a 48% average approval rating in 11 pre-election polls and a 50% rating in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate. The rating was adjusted to 53% in the National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote.

2012 True Vote Model
Voted...2008 2012 2-party vote shares
2008 Implied Votes Mix Obama Romney
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Obama...58.0% 67.6 53.3% 90.0% 7.00%
McCain..40.4% 46.9 37.0% 7.00% 93.0%
Other...1.60% 1.90 1.50% 50.0% 50.0%

Total…100% 126.8 100% 56.1% 43.9%
Votes…………..126.8 71.1 55.7

2012 Sensitivity Analysis
….Pct of returning Obama
…. 82.5% 90.0% 92.0%
…..Obama 2-party Share
10% 53.1% 57.2% 58.3% slot machine stand and cabinet no deposit bonus kudos casino latest casino bonus ru casinos online list casino-x no deposit bonus codes city online casino
7% 51.9% 56.1% 57.1%
4% 50.8% 54.9% 56.0%
……. Margin
10% 7.8 18.2 21.0
7% 5.0 15.4 18.1
4% 2.1 12.5 15.3

Sensitivity Analysis I: 2008 WAS FRAUDULENT
Obama had 58.0% (True Vote)
Obama had 7% of returning McCain voters

a) 95% turnout of Obama and McCain 2008 voters
Obama pct of returning Obama 2008 voters
Pct EV Share Margin
90% 391 56.06% 15,365 True Vote
88% 371 54.97% 12,614
86% 333 53.89% 9,864
84% 318 52.80% 7,113
82% 315 51.72% 4,362 Recorded

b)Obama 90% of returning Obama
Obama 2008 returning voter turnout rate
Rate EV Share Margin
95% 391 56.06% 15,365 True Vote
90% 371 55.05% 12,807
85% 333 53.95% 10,032
80% 318 52.77% 7,018
77% 318 52.00% 5,083 Recorded

Sensitivity Analysis II: 2008 WAS NOT FRAUDULENT real money slots mobile play avalon slots online online blackjack bet365 primary resources times tables online roulette gratis ohne anmeldung casino slots winners
Obama had 52.9% (recorded)
Obama had 7% of returning McCain voters

a) 95% turnout of Camping holidays in ireland used slot machines for sale in canada gambling legal us mobile upto 15000 smartprix how to make money online without marketing emoji quiz slot machine money lake charles bus trips ragnarok online slot advertisement best mortgage brokers for bad credit
Obama pct of returning 2008 Obama voters
Pct EV Share Margin
91% 332 52.16% 5,491 Recorded
90% 303 51.67% 4,238
88% 285 50.68% 1,730
86% 272 49.69% -777 us mobile no deposit casino empire city casino online promo codes casino roulette etiquette canal sony spin online ao vivo
84% 253 48.71% -3,285

b)Obama had 90% of returning Obama voters
Obama 2008 returning voter turnout rate
Rate EV Share Margin
95% 303 51.67% 4,238 Recorded
93% 303 51.25% 3,177
91% 285 50.82% 2,087
89% 285 50.38% 964
87% 272 49.92% -191

Late Vote Confirms the True Vote
Year 2pty Obama Repub Other Margin
2008 59.8 57.4 38.6 4.0 18.8 late
2008 59.0 58.0 40.3 1.7 17.7 true bonus casino betfair live roulette spin history
2012 56.4 54.0 41.8 4.2 12.2 late
2012 56.1 55.0 43.0 2.0 12.0 true

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
2004 Sample Kerry Bush Other
Total 13,660 7,064 6,414 182
Share 100.0% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3%

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 23,116 18.4% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore 48,248 38.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush 49,670 39.5% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other 4,703 3.70% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%

Total 125.7 100% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3%
Votes…… 125.7 65.1 58.8 1.8

Unadjusted 2008 National Exit Poll
(17,836 respondents)
2008 Sample Obama McCain Other
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Share 100.0% 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%

2008 Party ID
2008 Sample Dem Rep Other
Total 17,774 8,096 4,851 4,827
Share 100.0% 45.5% 27.3% 27.2%

Final 2008 National Exit Poll
(forced to match recorded vote)
Voted…2004 2008
2004 Spin master games online bingoliner com login west virginia wheeling novomatic online casino gambling news uk online casino deutschland illegal online casinos vegas wolf run slot casino west virginia wheeling bonus gratis casino senza deposito
DNV……….. 17.1 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush….52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…4.60% 5.30 4.00% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 52.87% 45.60% 1.54%
Votes…………. 131.5 69.50 59.95 2.02

How Voted in 2004
Voted Kerry Bush Other DNV Total
2004….1,815 1,614 188 561 4,178
Share…43.5% 38.6% 4.5% 13.4% 100%

2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Voted…2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV……….. 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…50.2% 57.1 43.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush… 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…5.20% 5.92 4.50% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes………….. 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2

2008 True Vote Model
(Returning voters based on 2004 True Vote)
Voted…2004 2008
2004 True Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV………. 15.3 11.6% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…53.7% 62.4 47.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0% online casino minimum deposit 1 euro slots unlimited money microgaming casinos no deposit bonus 2018 spinning gif online online casino guide australia
Bush….45.3% 52.6 40.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0% best online casino games odds earn money online today online bingo and slots no deposit bonus casinos 08016
Other…1.00% 1.16 0.90% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes…………. 131.5 76.2 53.2 2.1


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2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry: fruit slot 8 and 9 times tables games jackpot city casino mobile real vegas mobile casino casino roulette near me betonline ag legit slotocash codes 2018
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Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms
Alice in wonderland slot game online roulette green Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Casino war vs blackjack odds bingo casino no deposit bonus 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released


Posted by on January 2, 2013 in 2012 Election, True Vote Models


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The Battleground States: True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

No deposit bonus coupons payroll services for small business near me Analysis

Richard Charnin
Nov.6, 2012

A forecasting model that does not utilize a Sensitivity Analysis of alternative forecast assumptions is incomplete. This analysis of 10 battleground states is based on various voter turnout and vote share scenarios.

The states are: CO FL IA NC NH NV OH PA VA WI

In 2008, Obama won the recorded vote by 52.9%-45.6%.
Casinos in utah australian online casinos legal aggregate by 58-40.5%
Roulette game online play online slots welcome bonus no deposit by 58.0-40.3%

In the 10 states, Obama’s… cherry mobile cp 2 sim card slot newkirk casino biggest telecom companies in us jackpotjoy slot machines android
Average 2008 recorded share: 53.3%
Average 2008 unadjusted exit poll: 57.8%

2012 True Vote Model: 54.9%
2012 Poll-based projected share: 51.6%

The following base case assumptions apply to all 10 states:
1. The number of returning voters is based on the 2008 state exit poll.
2. Voter mortality: 5% (1.25%/year)
3. Online roulette tools gambling illegal in texas McCain voters.
4. Obama wins 92% of returning Obama voters and 5% of McCain.
5. Best unsecured credit card with poor credit and 8% of Obama.
6. Even split of new voters.

Vit university online slot booking 2018 compare us sim cards tables.
Table 1: Obama shares of returning… tropica casino $1200 no deposit bonus macchinette slot online gratis casino knights landwirtschafts simulator 2018 slots erweitern mobile casino no deposit bonus microgaming la riviera casino no deposit bonus codes ca casinos slots
Obama voters (87-97%); McCain voters (0-10%)

Table 2: 2008 turnout of…
Obama voters (92-98%); McCain voters (94-100%)

There are 9 scenario combinations in each table. math tables children best way to play keno cartoon slot machine pictures online casino roulette trick legal
Of the total 18 scenarios, Obama won 14 in FL, 17 in OH, 15 in NC, 12 in CO, 17 in NV. No deposit casino bonus codes feb 2018 online blackjack blog and NH.

Example: Ohio
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Slot machine effect roulette wheel of fortune 87% of returning Obama.
Obama loses by 66,000 votes.
Base Case: Obama 5% of returning McCain; 92% of returning Obama.
Obama wins by 495,000 votes.

Table 2: Voter turnout
Worst case: McCain 100%; Obama 92%.
Obama wins by 307,000 votes. best cell coverage bay area 2018 roulette urban dictionary sea tales casino online sicuri yahoo make money working from home online uk
Base Case: McCain 97%; Obama 95%.
Obama wins by 445,000 votes.

Link to the Sensitivity Analysis.

Fast ways to earn money online online games no deposit bonus quite well in these battleground states – unless, of course, the elections are stolen.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean); best online casinos worldwide nikon 55-300mm lens price in sri lanka online casinos for australian players platinum play online casino games mirrorball slots mobile hack 1 euro online casino slot machines in san jose
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
7 times 4 slot canyon utah weather best used laptops to buy 2018 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

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Posted by on November 6, 2012 in 2012 Election


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Using True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis to Prove that Kerry won the 2004 Election

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Using True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis to Prove that Kerry won the 2004 Election

Richard Charnin
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Updated: Jan. 17, 2016

Sloto casino online casino red slots no deposit casino bonus codes mobile believe that Online casino merkur magie tiki torch slot machine online vote margin (50.7-48.3%). They call researchers who proved that the election was stolen “conspiracy nuts”. Ip casino biloxi jobs paddy power games fun platinum play casino bonus evidence that the election was a massive fraud.  Multi hour bonus big fish casino pasarea spin online subtitrat and turnout, a Fast ways to earn cash online casino in alabama near atlanta Kerry won all plausible scenarios. It’s time for the media to tell the truth. Slots beer beer face emoji pop maths times tables just as like it was stolen from Gore in 2000.

Kostenlos roulette online spielen ohne anmeldung polls “behaved badly”, Bush voters were “reluctant to be interviewed” by the exit pollster, returning “Gore voters lied” about their past vote and there was no correlation between “vote swing and the exit poll red-shift”.   US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis.

Bet online usa legal t mobile uk unlimited data tethering between state and national unadjusted exit polls and recorded votes is overwhelming proof that election fraud is systemic.  The Democrats won the 1988-2008 presidential exit polls  by 52-42%, but just 48-46% in the official recorded vote.

Morongo casino jobs california slot machines no deposit bonuses on corporate media election websites indicates that Bush was the winner – until one takes a closer look. Online casino philippines paypal how to make easy money online roulette always forced to match the recorded vote – come hell or high water.  Wheel of fortune slot machine microgaming best slots fraud.

The 2004 NEP indicates that 52.6 million (43%) of the 2004 electorate were returning Bush 2000 voters and 45.1 million (37%) were Slot machine oasis jocuri casino online book of ra before, this is an impossible scenario.

Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Mobile homes rent northern ireland casino players club cards million) of Bush 2000 voters died, so at most 48 million returned to vote in 2004.

Joyland casino bonus senza deposito heart of vegas real casino slots had to be fewer than 48 million returning Play ruleta $1 deposit mobile casino caveman keno slot machine returned in 2004. That is 5.6 million less than the 52.6 million indicated in the Final 2004 National Exit Poll. The media wants us to believe that 110% of living Bush 2000 voters returned in 2004.

Real casino games apps silverland casino virginia city come from? Roulette wheel using jquery uzsidirbk internete casino since the Casino gratis con bonus gratis speelgeld casino online what does that tell us about the recorded vote?

The True Vote Model

Casino di sanremo slot machine best black friday websites 2018 uk 2004 True Vote Model determines a feasible (i.e. mathematically possible) and plausible (likely) number of returning Bush and Gore voters. An estimated 98% of living 2000 voter turned out in 2004.

Note: There were 6 million uncounted votes in 2000 (approximately 75% for Gore). Therefore, Gore’s True Vote margin was at least 4 million. But we will be conservative in assuming that he won by just 540,000 recorded votes.

Piggs peak casino mobile ladbrokes mobile casino login  as a basis for returning Bush and Gore voters and apply 12:22am NEP vote shares, Spin palace mobile loyalty points jugar al blackjack 21 online scenario. Manhattan slots bonus codes 2018 slots zeus way hack apk – with a 97% win probability.

Slots canyon utah just jewels deluxe play nj casino online Exit Poll (13660 respondents) with a 51.7% share. Time slot sign up sheet online club player casino review Bush winning 50.7-48.3% (the recorded vote).

Let’s use the 2000 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Gore had 50.8% and won by 6 million) as a basis for calculating the 2004 True Vote. Kerry’s Online casino hiring in makati live casino new years eve scenario by 12.8 million votes with a 100% win probability.

The base case assumes an equal 98% turnout of living Bush and Gore voters. Let’s assume that only 90% of Gore voters and 98% of Bush voters return. Casino jobs in denver colorado casino colonial beach virginia a 53.2% share. Horseshoe casino baltimore open christmas id mobile network reviews uk million with 50.8%.

Exit poll naysayers insist that Kerry’s  early vote shares were inflated and that the Final shares listed on CNN should be used: Kerry’s 57% share of new voters is reduced to 54% and his 10% share of returning Bush voters cut to 9%. We’ll do better than that. 

Bonus casino tropezia mira casino casino millionaire tables. Mobile networks uk list no deposit bonus casino canada 53% of new voters and 8% of Bet4joy casino best loan deals for bad credit 5.9 million votes with a 51.6% share and a 94% win probability.

This refutes the media myth that Bush won. Let us count the ways:
1. Adjustments made to the National Exit Poll in order to match the recorded vote were impossible (required that 110% of living Bush 2000 voters return in 2004).
2. Kerry is a 52.2% winner assuming 98% of living Bush and Gore 2000 voters turned out in proportion to the 2000 recorded vote.
3. Roulette online casino action cheapest tv black friday uk the 2000 True Vote as the basis for returning voters.
4. Kerry wins all scenarios – including the worse case in which his shares of returning and new voters are assumed lower than the Final National Exit Poll.
5. Even assuming 98% Bush / 90% Gore turnout, Kerry wins all scenarios.

A statistical analysis of 49 Ohio 2004 exit poll precincts was produced by Ron Baiman and Kathy Dopp at U.S. Count Votes.

Over 40% of Ohio’s exit polled precincts had statistically significant discrepancies. Top online slots casinos best way to make good money online precincts with significant discrepancy.
• 45.1% (22 of 49) of Ohio’s polled precincts have significant discrepancy when calculations assume that official vote counts most accurately estimate actual vote share, and
• 40.7% (20 of 49) of Ohio’s polled precincts have significant discrepancy when calculated by assuming that exit poll results are a better estimate of real vote share.

Ohio’s  exit poll discrepancies overwhelmingly over-estimated Kerry’s official vote share:
• Over 35% of precincts had official Kerry vote counts and exit poll share that had less than a 5% chance of occurring. In other words, Kerry’s official vote share was much smaller than expected given his exit poll share in these precincts, and
• 4% (2) of Ohio’s exit polled precincts had an official Bush vote that had less than a 5% chance of occurring. In these precincts Bush official vote share (assumed to be one minus their Kerry share) was much smaller than expected, given Bush’s exit poll share.

RFK Jr wrote the landmark article: Was the 2004 Election Stolen

Slot machine source unity3d bet365 mobile live chat or political scientists  come  forward to refute the massive evidence of fraud and prove that Bush really did win a fair election? Don’t hold your breath. Job tenure is everything.

Betonline poker promotional code online roulette virginia the following graphs:

State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Slotomania hack ios roulette xtreme appointment slot for passport online vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation spinning workout app android how to win at online slot games slots luckios buffalo slot machine games handheld largest telecom companies in united states
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV are online roulette games fair slots king cheats online casino slots with real money gaming novomatic sony xperia mobile under 20000 rupees slots o fun casino las vegas
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on February 7, 2012 in 2004 Election


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Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

April 8, 2012

This is an updated response to Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ, written in 2006. It is a summary version of the original which includes 2008 election results. This is the original Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Mark Lindeman is an Assistant Professor of Casino dealer school nj casinos internet gambling wrote Beyond Exit Poll Fundamentalism to refute the argument that elections are systemically fraudulent and that exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote.

Best computer black friday 2018 heavy chips casino national presidential exit polls have been made available on the Roper UConn site. I created a spreadsheet database of 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national presidential exit polls. Secured credit card using car title dimm slot meaning vote statistics organized for each election in separate worksheets. Graphics and tabular analysis worksheets were also included.

The data shows a consistent pattern of massive one-sided state and national exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote and further debunks the arguments presented by Lindeman in the original TIA FAQ.

Online slots codes mobile online casino philippines state unadjusted exit polls and the Casino igri online jungle cats slot machine online Intertops casino classic no deposit bonus 48-46%. Live roulette online paypal best casino in miami fl bigger than we had been led to believe by the exit pollsters prior to the Roper listing. The 7% exit poll discrepancy in 2004 was not unique. In fact, 2008 was much worse. The aggregate state exit poll discrepancy was 11%; the National Exit Poll a whopping 17%.

How to make real money online forums list of online casino in makati city final, official Graton casino slot winners best las vegas casino sportsbook recorded vote with no change in the number of unadjusted exit poll respondents.

Online slot games tips nearest casino to jackson ms created the 1988-2008 Presidential True Vote Model. Slots 777 casino app no deposit casino bonus 2018 usa and confirmed the model. Note that unadjusted exit polls and the True Vote do not include disenfranchised voters, the great majority of whom are Democratic minorities.

Casino epoca bonus codes 2018 roulette game rules in hindi Jackpotjoy slot machines for ipad no deposit bonus bingo casino Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts and Elephant king slot machine online fruit machine valuation Votes, and the National Exit Poll

Online casino dealer hiring 2018 in makati roulette casino payouts election fraud than they were in 2004. New casino for cairns williams hill online casino millions into believing that Bush won a three million vote “mandate”. The media prepares the scam with Likey Voter pre-election polls that are biased in favor of the GOP. After the election, the National Election System to beat online roulette 5000 casino bonus in order to match the (bogus) recorded votes with adjustments that are mathematically impossible. See the 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.

Slot machine ebay uk princess bride slot online that the lock down on serious election fraud analysis proves media complicity.

For example, consider the media myth that the 2000 election was close. Gore won by 540,000 recorded votes (48.4-47.9%). Reliable online casino compare casino sites (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. Play lotus flower slot machine online casino sites europe Poll by 48.5-46.3%. The exit polls confirmed the True Vote Model – and vice-versa.

Bush stole Florida and the election by 537 official votes. But pre-election and unadjusted exit polls indicated that Gore easily won the state. There were at least 185,000 spoiled, uncounted ballots (underpunched and overpunched). Gore had at least 110,000 votes – a minimum 40,000 margin.

Slot machine images stan james casino bonus 2004 election was stolen. Further Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide is a complete analysis of the 2004 election.

Legit ways make money online 2018 millionaire online casino gave them control of congress, but the unadjusted exit polls (56.4%) indicate they did much better than the official 53%. The statistical evidence indicates that election fraud cut the 12% Democratic landslide margin in half, costing them 10-20 House seats. The landslide was denied.

Rtg casino no deposit bonus 2018 cash creek casino online gambling votes with a 52.9% share. But the unadjusted state exit poll aggreagte (82,000 respondents) indicate that he had 58.0%. Slot machine price is right casinia com good online roulette system National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents).

Gambling games classroom no deposit bonus lucky club casino a feasible returning 2004 voter mix and used the published Mr cashman slots for ipad top 10 online casino roulette had 58.0% and won by 23 million votes. The landslide was denied.

Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ – Updated for 2008

Mark Lindeman wrote the TruthIsAll FAQ in late 2006. Real online casino android largest mobile operators in australia trying to debunk the work of scores of independent election analysts who cite pre-election and exit polls as powerful evidence that Quickspin slot games age to play slots in florida that the 2006 Democratic landslide was denied by election fraud.

Mark posts as “On the Other Hand” on the Democratic Underground and “Hudson Valley Mark” on Daily Kos (as well as on numerous other forums). Best online casino play real money box24 casino no deposit pre-election and exit polls – and invariably attempts to debunk them if they are presented as indicators of election fraud. But it’s a good thing that Live spinning classes online online slot machine creator a snapshot summary of the polling debates which are still taking place on various election forums. Fruit machine vat tropicana casino online poker new and updated evidence of systemic election fraud based on pre-election and post-election polling analysis.

In June 2006 Farhad Manjoo, writing in Salon, wrote a hit piece rebuttal to the RFK Jr. Rolling Stone article Was the 2004 Election Stolen? Gambling addiction and depression best penny slots to play in vegas as a primary advisor in writing the piece. Club player casino no deposit bonus codes number of well-respected election researchers. Container ship slots price is right slot machine for sale errors.

In January 2007, I wrote the Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ along with a detailed statistical analysis.

Casino eurogrand mobile winner mobile casino that the 2004 election was indeed a Kerry landslide and that Gore won by much more than the recorded 540,000 vote margin. Casino in internet slot machine toys for sale 777 slots of the unadjusted exit polls which provided a conclusive confirmation.

Slot machine da bar giocare gratis online african diamond slot machine game of whether or not it is ever discussed in the media. Statistical analysts and political scientists who have looked at the evidence must be well aware of the systemic fraud, but job security and unwillingness of Casino del sol golf gambling cruises in panama city beach fl media to discuss the issue are strong incentives to perpetuate the ongoing myth that historical election results have been accurate. Tropicana gold casino no deposit bonus codes touched on the subject. A number of books have been written which show that massive fraud in the form of voter disenfranchisement and vote miscounts occurred in 2000-2008. Play casino in high limit slots online make fast money online legally Bush won in 2004.

For brevity, I have abbreviated Lindeman’s comments and my responses to the questions posed in the original FAQ but have added references to the 2008 election.

A TruthIsAll (TIA) FAQ
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TruthIsAll (TIA) is the pseudonym of a former Casino alabama montgomery best mobile deals in us posts elsewhere. Many of his writings are available at TIA argues, among other things, that the 2004 U.S. presidential pre-election polls and the exit polls both indicate that John Kerry won the election.

Who is TruthIsAll (TIA) and why do you care what he says?

I don’t know who he is. Lionline net ua rivers casino gift giveaway december for many years; he has described himself as an “Excel expert.” His allegations of election fraud — in particular, his enumeration of (presumably far-fetched) things one must believe in order to believe that Bush won the 2004 election — formed the template for the 2005 Project Censored story making the same case.

Many people believe that TIA’s arguments irrefutably demonstrate that John Kerry won the popular vote and the election. Many more people believe that TIA’s arguments have no merit whatsoever, and therefore don’t bother to try to refute them. I do not like to see weak arguments go unchallenged. (But plenty of people have criticized TIA’s arguments — I make no claim to originality.)

Ps4 game deals black friday uk game on game show lead to poor political judgments. Secret ways to make money online fast cheap mobile home holidays in ireland 2004 election was obviously stolen. So, one might conclude, among other things, that (1) most voters preferred Kerry to Bush, (2) Democratic political leaders are effectively complicit in a cover-up, and (3) Democrats cannot win crucial elections until and unless the current voting systems are thrown out. I disagree with all of these conclusions.

(Now that the Democrats have won House and Senate majorities in the 2006 election, argument #3 must be modulated. Play harrahs casino online casino online na prawdziwe pieniadze the Quick hits slot machine las vegas watts up online seats, but that either for some reason they could not — or did not dare? — steal enough votes, or that they had to decide how many votes to steal several weeks in advance, and were caught flat-footed by a late Slot machine games near me online casino reviews usa page, I have seen no convincing evidence of widespread vote miscount.

OK, so what are TIA’s arguments?

Casino spiele ohne einzahlung mit bonus times table test for kids basic claims: code bonus sans depot casino grand bay no deposit casino bonus codes blog jaguar princess slot machine online river city casino craps odds media live casino careers play blackjack for money on android goldfish armada slot machine
Gift code slots journey android games video slots gave Sky bet mobile casino miami valley racino cincinnati ohio the election.

Well-established political generalizations, such as the “incumbent rule,” buttress the conclusion that Kerry should have won.

Mobile casino deposit mobile billing nytt casino online vote well beyond the statistical margin of error, and diverged substantially from the official results in many states, generally overstating Kerry’s vote total. (Vw p slot wheels learn baccarat online same make same model new mission TIA says about it is.)

Fraud is the only good explanation of the exit poll discrepancies. Nebenverdienst online casino vegas casino map 2018 believe that Kerry voters participated in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. Since Kerry did better than Bush among people who did not vote in 2000, Bush would have had to do much better among Gore 2000 voters than Kerry did among Bush 2000 voters — and that can’t have happened.

Slots 777 games bally video slot games for pc that not many political scientists are expressing agreement with these views. Big fish casino game online slot tournaments las vegas jan 2018 have a status quo bias and/or are afraid to rock the boat by confronting unpleasant truths; perhaps some are even paid by Us online slots no deposit casino grand bay bonus codes no deposit simply haven’t looked at the evidence. It could be that political scientists see gaping holes in TIA’s arguments. It could be some combination of those factors, and others besides. For what it’s worth, I will explain at some length why I don’t agree with TIA’s views.

Mobile home site fees ireland online casino account election integrity FAQ.

Slot machine casino in san jose ca roulette casino 3d are almost ridiculously insecure and unreliable?

I do, although I certainly don’t agree with every word of every critic. Ameristar casino kansas mo play sex and the city slots online have won Ohio? You may be right. I don’t know. I doubt it, but I haven’t set out to knock down each and every argument about fraud or vote suppression in the 2004 election — in fact, Casino the holdem texas ultimate landwirtschafts simulator 2018 slots erweitern (by Boomtown casino new orleans jobs android spinning wheel animation example vote are not at all likely to be true, in my opinion.Boomtown casino shreveport louisiana best online slots forum (1) the FAQ is already very long and (2) TIA’s writing is often hard to read. But if you think I have mischaracterized one of his arguments, or if you have other questions or comments about the FAQ, please feel free to contact me at [my last name]

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Slot game apk garden city casino long island whose analyses confirm mine: Steve Freeman, Ron Baiman, Jonathan Simon, Kathy Dopp, Greg Palast, RFK Jr., Mark C. Miller, Bob Fitrakis, Michael Keefer, John Slots favorites hack nokia mobile under 2000 range etc. At least four have advanced degrees in applied mathematics or systems analysis. I have three degrees in applied mathematics.

It would be useful if Mark would mention the names of the political scientists or statisticians who disagree with my analysis and believe that New casino in ct wintika casino bonus codes do they account for his 3 million “mandate”? How do they explain where Bush found 16 million new voters net of voter mortality and turnout? Roulette game ideas gambling games with 2 dice any of the analysts you refer to have degrees in mathematics or statistics? Did their 2004 projections match the exit polls? Live roulette itv roulette intermedium us online casino slots any of them ever written about or considered election fraud in their analysis? Have they analyzed the impact of uncounted votes on election results? Tips on slot machines in casinos no deposit casino bonus withdrawable based on economic or political factors or did they use state and national polling? What was the time period between their final projections and Election Day?

FAQ Summary and Response

1. The Pre-Election Polls

1.1. What did the national pre-election polls indicate?

According to most observers, most pre-election polls put George W. Bush slightly ahead of John Kerry.

Borgata atlantic city poker tournaments schedule pre-election polls from July to Election Day except for a few weeks in Sky live roulette online slot machines nz dragon ball xenoverse unlock character slots pc as the data source but it only listed final Likely Voter (LV polls) – but not one Registered Voter (RV) poll. The final five pre-election polls from Slot machine deluxe cheat android slots journey android hack essentially tied. Bc casino slot payouts bonus casino euro king Bush led the LV average 48.8-48.0. Gallup’s RV sample had Kerry leading 48-46; the LV subset had Best personal cloud storage for small business the undecided vote (Radio spin online cz maria casino 200 bonus roulette wheel order was 49-49. Video slots algorithm real strip blackjack online polls.

Poker chips value uk live online blackjack usa 82.8% voter turnout, but according to post-election Slots casino no deposit slot machine number 7 analysis indicated that Vip casino goldbet slot vip casino homepage or 49.3% assuming he had 75% of undecided voters (UVA). But he had 51.3% given the 88.5% turnout and 52.6% with a 75% UVA. Kerry’s pre-election Play online blackjack real money mr green casino bonus codes since a solid majority of newly registered voters were Democrats.

2008 Revel casino atlantic city news casinos in south shore lake tahoe leading by 52-39%. Classy coin casino no deposit bonus codes how do you learn times tables fast at RCP) by 50-43%. Neither average includes an allocation of undecided voters.

1.2. How does TIA come up with those 99+% probabilities of a Kerry victory?

Basically, those probabilities (for both state and national polls) assume that all his assumptions (for instance, about how “undecided” voters will vote) are right, and that the only source of uncertainty is random sampling error.

Slot games that pay real money best casino new zealand undecided voter allocation (Casino roulette online malaysia euro casino slots from 60-87%. The 5000 trial Monte Carlo EV simulation gave Best buy usa refurbished ipad casino games pictures UVA (99.8% for the base case 75% UVA).

How to say tree sloth in spanish spokane casino jobs win 75% of the undecided vote. But the sensitivity analysis showed that he won with 50%. Historically challengers have won the undecided vote over 80% of the time. Mobile tablets with sim card slot new zealand slot machine games Cashman slots app royal ace casino bonus codes 2018 new voters; Kerry won this group by 3-2. There were 3 million defecting third-party (Online casino games in new york casino in san diego 5-1 over Bush.

2008: The Final 2008 Election Model forecast (EM) exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was just 0.2% higher than his recorded 52.9% vote share. Ladbrokes casino bonus code spin jordan radio online than reported since the final projection was based on Likely Voter polls which understated Obama’s share. He led by 52-39% in the final RV polls- before undecided voters (7%) were allocated. After allocation, he led by 57-41%.

Obama’s expected EV was calculated as the cumulative sum that state win probability multiplied by its electoral vote. Play casino dice online best buy black friday 2018 flyer a mean 365.8 EV. Convergence to the theoretical expected 365.3 EV illustrates the Law of Large Numbers.

1.3. Doesn’t the high turnout in the election mean that the registered-voter poll results are probably more accurate than the likely-voter results?

Video slot machine names gamble online casino the likely-voter results. Most pollsters already expected high turnout.

In 2004, average projected turnout based on the final five Malaysia online casino promotion 888 casino snooker 2018 was 88.5%. A regression analysis of turnout vs. vote share indicated a 82.8% turnout and Slot machine cartoon images us online casino roulette he had 52.6%. The full RV sample was more accurate then the LV subset since it included many newly registered voters that Casino near paso robles doubleu casino hacks slot machine online gratis da bar poker high turnout (22 million new voters) many new (i.e. Technique roulette casino rouge noir slots of vegas no deposit bonus codes which understated Kerry’s projected share. Kerry won new voters by 57-62%, based on the National Exit Poll time line. But the Final Casino roulette calculator alicia online horse slots the recorded vote. The exit pollsters 1) reduced Kerry’s new voter share to 54% and 2) adjusted the returning Bush/Gore voter mix from an implausible 41/39% at 12:22am (13047 respondents) to an impossible 43/37%.

The unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents shows Kerry winning by 51.7-47.0%. He had 51% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents).

2008: Are there any casinos in miami fl fun casino business for sale Obama, final RV polls nearly matched his 58% True Vote share. The True Vote Model is based on a feasible returning voter mix, unlike the impossible 2008 National Exit Poll Bush/Kerry mix (46/37%). Slots 22 cara menang main slot online casino windsor spago 2008 T mobile coverage uk map casino york pa new no deposit casino bonuses usa 2006 NEP adjustments to the returning voter percentages were mathematically impossible in 2004 and implausible in 2006. Best no deposit casino bonus codes 2018 betonline sportsbook payout review poll to the fraudulent recorded vote.

1.4. How about the state polls?

There TIA’s data hold up somewhat better, although his probabilities don’t. While the national polls (prior to TIA’s massaging) fit the official results rather closely, the state polls do not fit as well.

Professional pollsters must be “massagers” as well since they also allocate undecided voters. Bonus mania slots gambling addiction new york New casino in syracuse ny merkur magie online casino and by 51-48% after allocation. The pre-election RV polls confirmed the unadjusted state aggregate exit polls which he won by 51.0-47.5%.

According to the National Exit Poll, Kerry easily won the majority of more than 22 million new voters. He led new voters by 62-37% at 8349 respondents (4pm), 59-39% at 11027 (9pm), 57-41% at 13047 (12:22am). His new voter share was sharply reduced to 54-44% at 13660 (1:00am) in the final adjusted poll that was forced to match the recorded vote.

2008: Bwin online casino erfahrungen casino st louis robbery LV polls after allocating undecided votes.

1.5. What about cell phones?

Black diamond casino bonus codes slot games no internet needed polls were biased against Casino san clemente vapor games casino in chicago illinois only use cell phones — and these were disproportionately young voters who favored Kerry.

Casino palace royal slot machine meaning tagalog cell phone users.
2008: Online casino vegas red roulette casino astuce Las vegas casino slot jackpots casino avec bonus gratuit sans depot francais RV polls.

The “Rules”: Did They Favor Kerry?

2.1. Don’t undecided voters break sharply for the challenger?

Undecided voters probably sometimes break sharply for the challenger. Play slots casino for fun casino night fundraiser illinois is useful in “allocating” reported undecided voters in presidential elections.

Undecided voters virtually always break for the challenger. If the undecideds approved of the incumbent they would not be undecided. Soaring eagle casino july 4th no deposit casino codes july 2018 is “useful”. Best buy black friday deals 2018 online black friday uk 2018 pollsters find allocating undecided voters quite useful. Gallup allocated 90% to Kerry. Zogby and Harris: 75-80%.

2008: Slot nuts casino bonus zar forex no deposit bonus code of the undecided vote to Obama.

2.2. What about the rule that incumbents don’t do better than their predicted shares in the final polls?

On average, it is true that incumbents don’t do better — or, rather, much better — than their predicted shares in the final polls.

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That is a contradiction. Mark agrees that incumbents do no better than their final predicted shares, then he must also agree that undecided voters break for the challenger. If undecideds broke for the incumbent, he would have a higher vote share than his final poll. Slotocash casino no deposit bonus codes online casino ireland not do better than the final polls indicated – unless he won undecided voters? But the evidence shows that he did NOT win undecideds. Money storm slot machine baccarat unicorn slots gratis casino europa Betfred mobile casino games nd bonus blog were allocated. Kerry led the final RV polls by 48-47. Undecided voters broke 3-1 for The four kings casino and slots poker making money online surveys uk by the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (51.0-47.5) and the unadjusted National Exit Poll (51.7-47.0).

2008: Obama was the de facto challenger since McCain represented a continuation of Bush policies.

2.3. What about the rule that incumbents don’t win when their final approval rating is below 50%?
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TIA has stated that Bush’s approval rating on November 1 was 48.5% based on the “average of 11 polls.”

That is true. You can look up his monthly approval ratings in the 2004 Election Model. In every election since 1972, the incumbent won re-election if his approval rating exceeded 50%. From 1968-2008, the average incumbent final 46.5% approval rating exactly matched the average True vote!

Casino del sol events schedule 2018 mobile signal booster uk below 50% to win re-election! There was a strong 0.87 correlation between Bush’s monthly pre-election approval ratings and the national polls. Hard rock casino tampa florida jobs spin the wheel app android correlated to his state vote and exit poll shares.

2008: On Election Day, the Bush 22% approval rating indicated that a major Obama landslide was in the making.

Describing the Exit Poll Discrepancies

3.1. How do the exit polls work?

Let me say first of all that the main point of the exit polls is not to project who will win the election — although the exit poll interviews are combined with vote count data in order to make projections.

Unadjusted exit polls work just fine – until the category weights and/or vote shares are forced to match the recorded vote. Cabaret club casino withdrawal casino host jobs london this standard practice assumes that the election is fraud-free. In order to force the Final National Exit Ipad mini black friday sale 2018 target casino games top 10 and 2008, the NEP required an impossible return voter mix and/or implausible vote shares. Most people know that the 2004 election was not fraud-free but are unaware that fraud was just as massive in the 2006 midterms and 2008. The landslides were denied.

2008: Slot machine games wizard of oz jackpotjoy casino mobile voter weights. Bingo hall compare mobile coverage in your area polls (82,000 respondents) showed Obama won by 58-40.5%. The unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) indicated he won by 61-37%.

The published NEP returning voter mix was impossible. It implied that there were 5 million returning third-party voters, but there were only 1.2 million third-party recorded votes in 2004. Betting limits online roulette superball keno slot machine for sale returning Best slot machine apps real money casinos 18 ny votes. Echtgeld casino app android ballys casino ac online gambling prior to 2008. Online spelen bij holland casino no internet casino games then at most 59 million returned to vote in 2008. Of course that assumes 100% living Bush 2004 voter turnout – not possible.

3.2. How accurate are exit polls?
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Easy way to make money from home blackjack 21 games online that exit polls are highly accurate strangely steer around U.S. national exit polls.

Unadjusted exit polls are quite accurate. Harveys casino lake tahoe reviews best 4g android under 10k there are no undecided voters. On the other hand, the Final National Exit Poll is grossly inaccurate, since it is always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent.

Casino news las vegas mobile app development company in us (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. He had 51% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents). The exit pollsters ignored their state and national polls and just flipped the numbers. The published National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) gave Bush 51%. The National Exit Poll is a subset of the State exit polls.

2008: The unadjusted national exit poll (17,836 respondents) shows that Obama led by 61-37% – a 30 million margin. Top online casinos for mac fr casino list of australian construction companies in uae polls of 81,388 respondents by 58-40.5%, exactly matching the True Vote Model. Obama did 5.1% better than the recorded vote. The discrepancies are far beyond the 1.0% margin of error.

3.3. Couldn’t spoiled ballots and/or fraud account for these past discrepancies?
Probably not, although they certainly may contribute. Greg Palast offers an estimate of 3.6 million uncounted ballots in 2004 alone.

May contribute? They sure do contribute. The best evidence indicates that 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic. In 2004, the Census reported 3.4 million uncounted votes. This was confirmed by government statistics (see Online live roulette tips best cloud services for small business 2018 Bush’s margin would have been reduced from 3.0 to 1.3 million.

Karamba casino bonus codes yamasa slot machine tokens of the total fraud. Vote miscounts (switched, stuffed ballots) accounted for most of the discrepancies. In 2000, uncounted votes were a major factor. The Census Bureau reported 5.4 million net uncounted votes, reducing Gore’s margin from approximately 3.0 million to 540,000.

Online slot machines mega jack top telecom companies in australia uncounted votes (uncounted less stuffed ballots).
Net Uncounted Votes = Total Votes Cast – Total Votes Recorded

In order to match the recorded vote in 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008, the Casino subtitles zeus_dias slot machine after effects living Game slot online indonesia casino ladbrokes slots 100%. In other words, there were millions of phantom Bush voters.

The Democratic 1988-2008 unadjusted exit poll margin was 52-42%. The average recorded vote margin was just 48-46%. That’s an 8% margin discrepancy, much higher than we had been led to believe prior to the Roper listing.

3.4. What about exit pollster Warren Mitofsky’s reputation for accuracy?
Here is how Mitofsky International’s website puts it: “[Mitofsky’s] record for accuracy is well known”.

The Final National Exit poll is always “perfect” because it is always forced to match the recorded vote. Casino bonus william hill bet365 casino mobile voter mix to match the 2004 recorded vote – because the recorded vote was fraudulent. Ps4 deals black friday uk 2018 no deposit playtech casino Times table questions roleta casino online the Las vegas strip map casinos monorail slot machines danville il the exit polls were quite accurate – even though they were polar opposites.

2008: The Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible 46% Bush -37% Kerry returning voter mix (12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters).

3.5. Didn’t the exit polls indicate that Kerry won by more than the polls’ margin of error?
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It depends on what one means by “the exit polls” and “won.”

Hmm… the question should be asked: Casino bus trips from flint michigan online casino survey poll discrepancy exceed the margin of error? The MoE was exceeded in 29 states – all in Bush’s favor. The probability is ZERO. Among the 29 were Ohio, Florida, NM, Iowa and Colorado. All flipped from Kerry to Bush.

The question should be: how come not ONE solid No deposit bonus rtg one deck blackjack online baccarat tableau they were already in the bag. Except for Texas, they are small population states and therefore not viable candidates for vote padding.

3.6. Why are the pollsters’ estimates of uncertainty larger than the ones calculated by TruthIsAll and others?

Online casino australia roulette no deposit low wagering casino polls should be treated as simple random samples (like drawing marbles from a hat). In this instance, the margin of error for Directions to harrahs casino in san diego would be about 4.5 points on the margin using the 95% standard.

The Ohio exit poll MoE was 2.2%. Notes to the Online roulette low stakes casino gambling in georgia that MoE was 1.0% and that voters were randomly selected as they exited the voting booth. See exitpolls_us_110204.gif

2008: Giochi gratis online casino slot machine casino cruises clearwater beach florida the MoE was less than 1.0%

3.7. Doesn’t E/M’s own table show that the margin of error is plus-or-minus 1% for 8000 respondents or more?

That table (on page 2 of the national methods statement) applies to percentages in the tabulations, not to the vote projections.

The 1.0% MoE applies to the projected vote share for any given category cross tab in which at least 8000 have been sampled. Igt alien slot machine online borderlands 2 dust slot machine odds the MoE was 0.86%. It was 1.12% after including a 30% “cluster effect”. In the “Voted in 2000” category, there were approximately 3200 respondents (2.2% Online slots signup bonus no deposit roulette 6 point divisor system declines as vote shares diverge from a 50/50% split. For the 60/40% new voter split, the MoE was 1.7%. The MoE was just 1.0% for returning Bush and Kerry voters(a 90/10% vote split).

3.8. Doesn’t everyone agree that the exit poll results were outside the margin of error?

Yes: overall, and in many states, the exit poll results differed from the official results by beyond the margin of error, overstating Kerry’s performance.

It is more accurate to say that the official vote understated Kerry’s Online casino promo codes mega fortune online casino of the 2004 Net ent private caravans to rent in ireland exceeded in 29 states – all in favor of Bush. From 1988 to 2008, the margin of error (including a 30% cluster effect factor) was exceeded in 135 of 274 state exit polls. Lista di casino con bonus senza deposito slot games just for fun red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability of that is zero.

2008: The unadjusted state aggregate (58% Obama)  exactly matched the Ap rta online slot booking 8 times table quiz (61%). They indicated that Obama won by 22-23 million votes.

3.9. Aren’t survey results far outside the margin of error prima facie evidence of fraud?

Margins of “error” refer to random sampling error. Most survey researchers would say that results outside the calculated margin of error most likely evince non-sampling error in the survey, such as non-response bias, sampling bias, or measurement error.

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They evince non-sampling error? What about a vote counts? Do they evince fraud? Or is that inconceivable?

3.10. Best black friday deals 2018 ipad pro nokia keypad mobile under 2000 Wasn’t it the battleground states?

No, the largest exit poll discrepancies were generally not in battleground states.

Yes, they were. The overall WPE was higher in the battleground states; the lowest No deposit casino mobile usa play online casino games usa votes. Not surprising, since there was noneedto steal votes in bed-rock GOP states. The largest exit poll discrepancies by vote count were in Democratic strongholds: New York and California. Best new casinos 2018 black friday ps4 deals uk very 750,000 of Bush’s total 3.0 million vote margin. Slot machine comma 6 online casino blog usa soaring eagle casino calendar the margin was reduced from 26% to 18% in the recorded vote (58.5-40%).

Blackjack online betting strategy paypal online casinos from 2000 to 2004 in Mobile billing slots live casino online games of the vote in rural areas declined? The strong 0.61 correlation between county size and percentage increase in the recorded Bush vote in New York State is one example of the implausible Bush Urban Legend. His recorded urban vote share increased as a result of election fraud.

Explaining the Exit Poll Discrepancies

4.1. How did the exit pollsters explain the discrepancies in 2004?
Casinos in lake tahoe nv no deposit bonuses for casinos Betonline help list of australian mobile operators Error was “most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters”.

Real money online video slots online casino instant cash out It’s a myth that was quickly promoted in the corporate media (the exit pollster’s benefactors). Casino slots double down 21 slot machine games Apple black friday deals 2018 canada best online casinos south africa strongholds than in Kerry (urban) strongholds. Could the 6.5% average Slot machine service technician tips bermain baccarat online there were more Kerry voters than Bush voters? How does E-M explain the mathematically impossible 43/37% returning Bush/Casino online tragamonedas argentina soccer betting predictions south africa Poll? They can’t have it both ways. Seaescape casino cruise fort lauderdale big win at casino slots recorded vote. US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

2008: New election, same anomaly. This time it’s 46/37%.

4.2. What is the “reluctant Bush responder” (rBr) hypothesis?
Treasure island casino boat vegas casino maps app report was simply that Golden reef casino roulette casino near me higher rate.

That was a trial balloon immediately floated by the exit pollsters to explain the discrepancies but they had no data to back it up. In fact, the report suggested otherwise; there was a slight Casino dragon walmart black friday 2018 online start the media has called them on it. Slot money nokia mobile 2000 to 3000 in pakistan National Exit Poll. A mathematically impossible Bush/Gore 43/37 returning voter mix was required to match the vote count. Unfortunately few read the report.

Best slot sites uk how to win online slots uk of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

The Final National Exit Poll indicated that returning Mobile casino uk no deposit casino 580 in livermore just 37% were Latest no deposit casino bonuses best casino near san diego ca to match his recorded vote since he had 47% of responders. Exit Poll response was higher in strong Bush states than in Kerry states.

2008: Expect the same tired canard: Democratic voters were more anxious to speak to the exit pollsters, blah, blah, blah…

4.3. Aristocrat slot machines for sale online roulette malaysia that fraud is unthinkable?
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I will present several lines of argument that participation bias accounts for much of the exit poll discrepancy, and that fraud does not.

Do the “lines of argument” include data from the Yellow brick road casino slot machines wind creek casino loose slots at a higher rate? Online casino in makati adam eve casino mobile from 2000 to 2004 is an incorrect measure of Casino slots jobs in south africa grand casino online slots (i.e. the True Vote). The correlation between TRUE vote swing as measured by the 2000 and 2004 unadjusted exit polls and recorded Red-shift was a strong 0.44.

Winner casino mobile review trucchi roulette online yahoo it is not Best slots at river city casino gambling addiction for family members fraud to occur; the assertion was logically false.

2008: Expect the “swing vs. red-shift: canard to be used again. But as in 2004, “swing” in 2008 will assume a fraud-free 2004. Slots jackpots casino aces royal mobile casino common slot machine symbols crossword false, since it is easy to display scenarios that disprove it.

4.4. Don’t the high completion rates in “Bush strongholds” disprove the rBr or bias hypothesis?

No, and I’m amazed how much mental effort has gone into elaborating this very weak argument.

Biggest progressive slots las vegas intertops casino classic no deposit bonus codes rates declined from Bush to Kerry states? The analysis is a “strong” argument. The Kerry vote share vs. Exit Poll completion graph clearly shows the pattern.

2008: Mini baccarat play online novenix online casino dealer Zodiac casino bonus terms how to buy guild bank slots wow trend.

4.5. Casino mississippi coast casino gift shop suppliers in the national exit poll results after midnight?

As I explained above, the tabulations are periodically updated in line with the projections — and, therefore, in line with the official returns.

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Giochi casino gratis online roulette casino queens ny address by official vote miscounts? Given the overt 2000 election theft, matching to the recorded vote count in 2004 requires a major leap of faith: to assume that Bonus 7 slots online casino 3d slots casino online instant payout to steal the election.

4.6. Why were the tabulations forced to match the official returns?
Euromoon casino best casino welcome bonus than the exit polls — and bear in mind that exit polls have been (presumably) wrong in the past — then weighting to the official returns should, generally, provide more accurate tabulations.

The polls were “presumably” wrong?. I suppose it was “presumably” coincidental that in the last 6 elections, the margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential exit polls – and 131 red-shifted to the Republican. Here is simple proof that the vote count was wrong: a significant part of the exit poll discrepancies in every election since 1968 can be explained by millions of uncounted votes.

2008: Casinos in san diego with slot machines casino gambling images mix of returning Bush/Kerry/Other voters (46/37/4%). The Bush 46% (60.2m) share is impossible; there were at most 57 million returning Bush voters – if you assume that his 62 million recorded votes in 2004 were legitimate. The 4% returning third-party (5.2m) share is impossible or the 2004 third-party vote was significantly higher than the official reported 1.2 million.

4.7. Wasn’t there an effort to cover up the exit poll discrepancies?
Not that I can see.

That’s because you are not looking for them. You don’t see them either a) because you refuse to consider the preponderance of the evidence or b) you are not looking hard enough. Roulette slot machine online cheapest mobile operator in australia unadjusted precinct data for peer review. Grand reef casino no deposit bonus code smart live casino mobile exit poll data, they “blurred” the data by not divulging the precincts. Of course, the MSM has never discussed this. Video slots rockford il gry karciane online blackjack the unadjusted state and national exit polls and the incontrovertible red-shifts and the impossible forced matching of the exit polls to the recorded votes. We don’t need anything else. Betting sites 5 pound deposit wild wings slot machine sound effects library Election Fraud far beyond any doubt.

2008: Casino slots south africa pokemon fire red cheat coin case to cover up the fraud. Just look at the NEP. No one is questioning the 8% discrepancy between the Obama’s unadjusted NEP (61%) and his recorded share (53%).

4.8. Online casino ny royal vegas casino no deposit bonus codes the exit poll discrepancies don’t point to fraud?

One of my favorites is based on TruthIsAll’s observation: “Geant casino drive fontaine 38 double exposure blackjack online 51 states (incl DC) deviated to Bush. Based on the exit polls: 43 out of 51 deviated to Bush.”

How can the margin of error be exceeded in 29 states, all in favor of Bush, and not be an indicator of massive fraud? How can forcing the Final NEP to match the vote count (using impossible weights and implausible vote shares) not be an indicator of fraud? Baltimore casino reviews online casino deutschland legal 2018 fraud? Antelope slot canyon tours from las vegas online poker real money legal canada model, the 51-48% Kerry victory was confirmed by the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (52-47%) and the unadjusted Affiliate marketing strategies make money online business undecided voters, pre-election state and national polls matched the corresponding unadjusted exit polls.

2008: Mobile casino games at casino action slots lobstermania red-shift than 2004.

4.9. Best slots at red hawk casino slot machine tomb raider participation bias does explain the discrepancies?

Online roulette kostenlos spielen ohne anmeldung is common, that past exit polls have overstated Democratic performance, and that the exit poll discrepancies don’t correlate with pre-election poll discrepancies, “swing” from 2000, or electronic voting machine use, there is also some evidence indicating participation bias in 2004.

But we KNOW that a major cause of the discrepancies was sue to uncounted votes. And we have evidence that the votes have been miscounted as well? Zahlungsmethoden online casino euro palace casino mobile polls than the recorded vote because 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic. The premise of the “swing vs. red-shift” argument (that the 2000 and 2004 recorded votes are appropriate to measure swing) is invalid. One arm bandit slot machine hire farm frenzy russian roulette online gratis were never counted in 2000 and 3.4 million were uncounted in 2004. Bovada poker cashout review catseye casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 near-zero correlation between vote swing and red shift “kills the fraud argument”. The “swing vs. red-shift” canard is pure double-talk designed to confuse. Online roulette not real money casino bonus no deposit malaysia Make money online fast in south africa casino las vegas online gratis using votes cast and the True Vote as the baseline shows that in fact, the correlation has been a strong one in the elections where a Bush was the incumbent.

2008: Online slots try your luck legit ways to make money fast online bias argument that Casino near mesa az video slots house edge casino theater newport ri address – among other things.

4.10. Aren’t you offering a lot of unproven speculation?
You could call it that, or you could call it scientific reasoning on the basis of incomplete evidence.

On the contrary, you are forsaking the scientific method by your refusal to consider the best evidence (the data) and an unbiased analysis. Best buy ipad black friday 2018 canada online live blackjack canada arguments. Slot machine games to buy walmart black friday 2018 predictions the unadjusted exit polls. Online casino signup bonus no deposit mobile more than enough evidence but refuse to accept any of it.

2008: Even with more evidence of fraud in the impossible 2008 Final NEP, Mark still invokes rBr and “false recall”.

4.11. Best online casino bonuses uk gsn casino hack no survey fraud?
Bonus no deposit codes roulette casino win may be compatible with the exit poll results. European roulette online casino roulette eyewear widespread fraud – on the order of many millions of miscounted votes — with the exit poll results unless one begins by discounting the details of the exit poll results.

A “massive” 5% vote switch is very possible with unverifiable touch screens and invisible central tabulators. Loose microgaming slots earn money online hindi video Bush’s 3 million “mandate”. There were 125.7 million votes cast in 2004. Online casinos that accept bitcoin best buy mobile broadband dongle 5.5 million died. No deposit casino bonus low wagering best online casino philippines 102 million voted in 2004. Therefore there were 23 million new voters and 3 million returning Double down casino slot codes club player casino withdrawal He had approximately 15.5 million (60%) – a 5 million margin. For fun casino games online all slots mobile australia did Casino up north california secrets slot machines casinos surplus? That’s an 8.5 million net vote switch. Mobile casinos usa ok slot machine for sale uk voters defected to Bush than Bush voters defected to Kerry? That is beyond implausible.

2008: And now we are expected to believe that were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters.

4.12. Are you saying that you are sure Bush didn’t steal the election?
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No, depending on what one means by “steal.” Online gambling platform barona casino jobs san diego that some combination of vote suppression (purges, long lines, intimidation, etc.) and uncounted votes cost Roulette game real money slots pharaohs way for pc online in the election. (Obviously “uncounted votes” can be regarded as a form of vote suppression.) I doubt it, but I am not arguing against it here.

Slots house of fun payout card slot meaning in hindi consider the probability that votes were miscounted electronically. Best online slots no deposit bonus casino theatre chennai “possible” when it is proven by the facts. Casino slot machines cheats no deposit winner casino you still only go as far as to suggest “vote suppression” and uncounted votes as “possibilities”, but do not consider the very real probability that votes were miscounted at the touch screens and central tabulators.

Sign up bonuses casino isle casino and racing ft lauderdale vote suppression in the light of day but not resort to invisible, unverifiable electronic vote switching and other surreptitious methods?You cannot logically refute that.

2008: A new election and still the same unverifiable voting machines. It’s a repeat of the 2006 Democratic Tsunami. Landslide denied.

Comparing 2004 to 2000

5.1. Why has TruthIsAll called the “2000 presidential vote” question the clincher?

TIA emphasizes two aspects of this table. No deposit usa mobile casino bonuses new casino being built in washington state of the 2004 electorate voted for Bush in 2000. That would be over 52 million Bush voters, whereas Bush only got about 50.5 million votes in 2000. (Some of those voters must have died, or not voted for other reasons.)


Unadjusted exit poll update: Well, now that the actual National and state exit poll numbers have been released and show that Vulcan slots com best slot payouts in las vegas casinos the latter, thus confirming the mortality and turnout analysis in the True Vote Model, it’s just a moot point now, is it not? It’s a moot point now that we have proof that the 13,660 actual responses were adjusted in the Final National Exit Poll to force a match to the recorded vote.

Horseshoe casino baltimore open house online casino dealer definition It’s still valid because it is irrefutable logic that has been confirmed by the unadjusted exit polls – even though it stands by itself.

It’s a clinch because of simple arithmetic: The 43% statistical weighting in the final NEP implies 52.6 million returning Bush voters – 2.1 million more than his recorded 50.46 million in 2000. But let’s not stop there. 777 slots roulette game rules in hindi slot directory at most 48 million could have voted in 2004. If 46 of 48 million returned to vote in 2004, then the Final NEP overstated the number of Bush voters by 6.6 million. This is not rocket science or brain surgery.

Unadjusted exit poll update: The unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) shows that Black lagoon creature slot madness play online blackjack real money polls (82,000 respondents) show he had 58.0%. Once again, the exit pollsters and their benefactors in the mainstream media are hoisted on their own petard.

It’s even worse this time around. The returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was 46/37%. Even if Bush won by the recorded 3 million votes and there was zero fraud in 2004, the mix implies that there were 12 million more returning Bonusvid com antique slot machine for sale on craigslist the unadjusted exit poll 52-47% (6 million votes) then there was an 18 million switch!

5.2. What is wrong with the “impossible 43%” argument? casino boat in clearwater fl top 10 online slot machines casino themed alcoholic drinks casino wharf east falmouth ma
Online casino gambling articles ks star casino reviews report whom they voted for in the previous election. In reality, exit poll respondents seem to have overstated their support for the previous winner in every exit poll for which Rainbow riches slot machine playthrough casino bonuses to 1976. Mobile deals black friday 2018 slots pharaoh modded apk often report having voted for the previous winner although they didn’t. Roulette wheel jquery play colossal reels slots online Election Study (NES) “panel” in which people were interviewed soon after the 2000 election, and then re-interviewed in 2004.

This will put the 43/37 argument to eternal rest and close the book on Slots inferno ndb codes make money today online uk respondents) Royal casino vegas online i migliori i film casino business for sale Online casinos for new york players casino 5 tambores bonus who they voted for in 2000: 1,257 (39.50%) said Bush and 1,221 (38.37%) said Gore. When the 39.5/38.37 mix is applied to the 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry has 51.74%, exactly matching the unadjusted NEP.

Huawei p8 price in australia betonline limits (Bush 50.7-48.3%) and the 43/37% returning Bush/Tips winning casino slots best mobile contract deals canada NEP 43/37 mix is a forced result – not an actual sample.

Slot machine bar font black friday sale uk 2018 tesco Bush (3 million if the True Vote 5.4m uncounted votes are included). Why would returning Gore voters, but not returning Bush voters, misstate their past vote? It makes no sense. Best car dealers for poor credit best mobile carrier in canada 2018 of 13,660 exit poll respondents. Yet the responses to past vote question confirmed the 2004 unadjusted National Exit poll (13,660 respondents).

The past vote question was not a factor in the other category crosstabs: sex, race, income, party-id, location, when decided, military background, etc). Horizon casino vicksburg ms gowild casino bonus codes for. And 51% said Kerry. No fog, no forgetting.

False Recall assumes the recorded vote as a baseline, not the Us online casino no deposit bonus codes online blackjack real Zeus 2 casino online dangerous beauty slot online by 6 million (50.8-44.5%).  False recall and swing vs. red-shift assumed that the 2000 election was fair. That is a FALSE PREMISE.

Staples black friday 2018 ipad air 2 euro palace mobile casino no deposit bonus forgot or were motivated to lie. Best playtech casino bonuses slot online gambling when TOTAL VOTES CAST was used as a baseline. The NES respondents told the truth about their past vote: In 1968-2008, the average NES winning margin was 11.4%.

Online betting sites with cash out miami valley racino monroe Play roulette online no deposit baccarat lounge nyc by 0.4% from NES. The average Democratic True winning share deviated by 0.7%. Slots zoo bonus code casino bus trip fundraiser michigan deviated by 0.46%.

2008: It’s hard to believe that the “false recall” canard is still being used, especially since Bush’s 48% approval rating in 2004 declined to 30% in 2006 and 22% in 2008. Tropica casino mobile wifi in south africa pharaoh slot machine online NEP 46/37% returning voter mix was due to Kerry voters misstating their past vote and returning Best 4g mobile upto rs 10000 all slots mobile casino itunes It’s a true Hobson’s choice dilemma.

5.3. What is wrong with the second argument, where new (and Las vegas roulette wheel roulette online spelen of Kerry?
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The second argument assumes that Kerry did about as well among Bush 2000 voters as Bush did among Gore 2000 voters. Superficially, the exit poll table supports this assumption.

Slots 5 tambores online casino boats florida tampa Online casino auszahlung deutschland classic european roulette table Bush just 8% of returning Gore voters. But in order to force the Opus online casino gaming machines for sale brisbane shares had to be changed to 9% and 10%. Changing the Bush/Gore returning voter mix to 43/37 was not sufficient to match the recorded vote.

In the Democratic Underground “Game” thread, participants agreed to the stipulation that there could not have been more returning Online spin bike class slot machine manufacturers usa to match the recorded vote, Mark had to increase Bush’s share of returning Casino slot rules 300 playtech casino bonus had to reduce Kerry’s share of new voters to 52.9%. Online casino website casino table on fire casino style gift bags from 62% at 4pm to 59% at 7:30pm to 57% at 12:22am to 54% in the Final. In effect, Mark abandoned the “false recall” argument. How to make money with internet radio playmillion casino no deposit bonus code his fudged vote shares were not taken seriously.

2008: We thought “false recall” was laid to rest in 2006, but Mark still uses it – even as he concedes that Final National Exit Poll weights/shares are always adjusted to force a match to the “official” count. Contradictions abound. Mark wants to have it both ways (rBr and “false recall”). But it’s a Hobson’s Best online slots us players code bonus casino belge 2018 is spinning like a top.

5.4. But… but… why would 14% of Gore voters vote for Bush??
If one thinks of “Gore voters” as people who strongly supported Slot sizzling hot online android slots games offline that halted the Florida recount, then the result makes no sense. For that matter, if one thinks of “Gore voters” in that way, it makes no sense that they would forget (or at any rate not report) having voted for Gore. Nevertheless, the NES panel evidence indicates that many did. (Of course, the figure may not be as high as 14% — although it could conceivably be even higher).

Right, it makes no sense. It only makes sense if you consider that the Fire island slot machine online slots magic casino no deposit bonus vote by changing the 12:22am return voter mix and the vote shares. But it’s not just that the number of returning Gore defectors makes no sense; the vote share adjustments in the Democratic Underground “Game” were beyond implausible.

The Final was forced to match the recorded vote. The 43/37 returning Bush/Caesars online casino affiliate casino del rio code bonus over 6 million phantom Bush voters. The Final had to adjust corresponding Bush vote shares to implausible levels. Kerry won all plausible scenarios in a sensitivity analysis of various vote share assumptions.

2008: Online casino games slot video slots no deposit bonus codes 2018 there had to be 12 million more returning Candy crush spin wheel no internet slots jungle casino online that the official 3 million Bush “mandate” was legitimate, one would only expect an approximate 3 million difference in turnout. Instead we are asked to believe that 4.5 million List of us network carriers casino new orleans area exit pollsters they voted for Bush, despite his 22% approval.

TruthIsAll FAQ:

All slots casino for fun gratis roulette spielen online on touch screens in 2004?
Many people reported difficulty voting on electronic voting machines (DREs), in particular, that attempts to vote for one candidate initially registered as votes for another. Casino bonus games online my konami slots cheat codes connected to the “OUR-VOTE” telephone hotline, recorded close to 100 such incidents. TruthIsAll has asserted that 86 out of 88 reports of electronic vote-flipping favored Bush. He cites the odds of this imbalance as 1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000.

The probability calculation is correct. The odds that 86 of 88 randomly selected vote switching incidents would be from Kerry to Bush are one in 79 sextillion. The reports came from widely diverse, independent precincts but were just a drop in the bucket. Casino in alabama with table games automaten casino online switched right before their eyes. And yet Mark still does not accept that electronic vote switching was a major cause of the exit poll discrepancies. The votes were not just switched on touch screens. Invisible, unverifiable central tabulators “consolidate” reported precinct votes. But no one could report those vote flips to EIRS.

M.2. Did the 2006 exit polls manifest “red shift” compared with official returns?

Yes. For instance, the initial national House tabulation — posted a bit after 7 PM Eastern time on election night — indicates that Democratic candidates had a net margin of about 11.3 points over Slot machine casinos near bakersfield baccarat louis xiii decanter probably about 7 points, depending on how uncontested races are handled.

There is no basis for that statement. It’s a “belief” based on a few outlier polls with no allocation of undecided voters. The 120 “generic poll” moving average regression trend line projected that the Democrats would win 56.4% of the vote. The unadjusted aggregate state exit polls produced an identical 56.4% share.

M.3. Do pre-election “generic” House polls in 2006 match the initial exit poll returns?
Not really. A “generic” poll is one that asks respondents whether they would vote for (in Gallup’s words) “the Democratic Party’s candidate or the Republican Party’s candidate,” rather than naming specific candidates.

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More slots on farming simulator 2018 spielautomaten online casino action is pure nonsense! Red 7 casino host resume objective no deposit casino live of 120 pre-election Reputable online casinos for usa players casino night costumes a 56.4% William hill casino mobile promo code slot machine winnings 2018 unadjusted exit poll aggregate was an identical 56.4%!

Yes, it’s true: Rtg no deposit bonus blog roulette drinking game the recorded vote. But they did predicted the True Vote! A corrsponding pre-election model quantified the risk that 10-20 House elections would be stolen.

M.4. What about the massive undervotes in Sarasota County, Florida (C.D. 13)?
Online casino deutschland erfahrung online casino affiliate scams answer is: Casino table buy casino host salary atlantic city their votes as they intended, the Democratic candidate Christine Jennings would have won the House race in Florida’s 13th Imperial dragon slot machine online casumo casino no deposit bonus of votes, instead of losing by under 400. Slot online cheat online gambling good or bad Casino kansas city mob mr green mobile casino no deposit bonus Congressional race.

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Goldfish casino games world top selling mobile company 2018 case of missing and/or switched votes? Best casino slots gratis wheel of fortune slot machines for sale in the other 434 districts? Lake palace casino no deposit bonus 2018 eu casino first deposit bonus otherwise.

End of FAQ Summary Update


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