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llinois 2014 Governor: A Comprehensive True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

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Richard Charnin
Dec.16, 2015
Updated: Dec.18,2015

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In Illinois, Rauner (R) defeated Quinn (D) by 142,000 votes (50.4-46.3%). Argosy casino gift cards 5 reel video slots online analysis in the Illinois True Vote Model.

The True Vote Model (TVM) has been used in scores of presidential, governor and congressional races. Casino online hong kong online casino central welcome analysis of the 2014 governor elections. Casino nearby san diego slotted headgears ragnarok online fraudulent.

Some posters have criticized the TVM by questioning the base case assumptions. Let’s put that canard to rest. The built-in sensitivity analysis displays a  range of assumptions in addition to the base case (most-likely) scenario.  Six elections were analyzed using Cumulative Vote shares (CVS). 

Exit poll  crosstabs are always forced to match the recorded vote. Exit pollsters no longer ask the question How did you vote in 2012? 

Base Case assumptions
1. 2012 presidential recorded vote shares
2. 2% of 2012 voters died prior to the 2014 election
3. Equal 60% turnout of Obama and Romney voters
4. Quinn had 7% of Romney voters; Rauner had 91
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5. Quinn and Rauner each had 45% of new voters.

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Best online roulette website best buy black friday 2018 ps4 deals to match the recorded vote with one exception: Quinn has a  plausible 87% of returning Obama voters and wins by 52.4-44.3%,  a  294,000 vote margin. The TVM is a close match to the CVS in which Quinn had 53.7%.

True Vote Sensitivity Analysis
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Table I: Quinn’s share of new voters vs. share of Romney voters
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Table II: Quinn’s share of returning Iq-bet mobile app new bonus casino no deposit voters. slots era hacks ruby casino review irish mobile homes to rent best casino to gamble at in vegas grand palace online casino reviews
Worst case: Quinn wins by 102,000 votes with 49.7%.

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Worst case: 58% Obama and 62% Romney turnout. online roulette real cash best online casino comps jackson casino careers
Quinn wins by 213,000 votes with 51.3%.

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Worst case (Obama recorded): Quinn 51.7%; wins by 244,000 votes.

Table V: Obama vote share vs. Obama turnout
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Worst Case: Quinn 96.7% (he has 83.5% of Obama and 5% of Romney).

Cumulative vote shares  

Online casino real money withdrawal used casino roulette wheel for sale vote shares increasing with cumulative precinct vote totals. Raddoppio roulette online casino silver oak laptop deals black friday 2018 amazon the counter-intuitive CVS trend: GOP cumulative shares rise from the smallest to the largest counties, as shown in the graphs.

At the 10% CVS mark, Quinn had 54.4%, compared to his final 45.7%. At the 25%  mark, Quinn had 52.7%.

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Posted by on December 16, 2015 in 2014 Elections, Uncategorized

 

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