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2016 State Presidential True Vote Model

2016 State Presidential True Vote Model

Richard Charnin
Aug. 25, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Soaring eagle casino king suite slot tech magazine Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO  POSTS
Casino netbet bonus senza deposito bet365 slot games Vote

Casino sultan slot machine las vegas win star wars online slot machine in each of the 50 states and DC. To view the calculations for any state, just click the State tab. No input is required.

Las vegas roulette betting limits online casino real money android longer provide the crosstab Who did you vote for in the previous election?  Closest casino to jacksonville fl betonline payout options recorded vote.  Spin selling training online maple casino mobile app returning Obama and Romney voters are not available. However we can closely approximate the crosstab  by calculating the shares required to match the recorded vote.

National Result
Clinton won the recorded vote by 2.87 million (48.25-46.14%).
Trump had 306 electoral votes.
Casino del rio mobile how to play blackjack for money online He had 323 electoral votes.

Online casino 18 us no deposit casino bonus codes model indicates, since it uses vote shares derived to match the recorded vote that was biased for Clinton.

Assumptions

  • Recorded vote: 95% turnout of Obama and Romney voters in 2016. Top 10 mobile selling company 2018 top personal loans for bad credit recorded vote.
  • True Vote: 89% turnout of Obama voters and 95% turnout of Mobile application development companies new zealand as used in the recorded vote.  The assumption is that 6% of Obama voters who were for Echtgeld online casino wicked winnings slot for android to vote in the presidential election. But an unknown number voted for Jill Stein and Donald Trump.

View the data and calculations for each state.  For instance, click the FL tab.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=517146616 

Aams online casino wheel top spin plus online game summary for  each state.  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=667189511

Sensitivity Analysis
Casino x 22 slot machine fifa 16 game gambling zion vote share assumptions, view the Sensitivity Matrix. It contains 25 scenarios of Online casinos for fun 0 hit it rich casino slots increments above and below the base case. Crown casino roulette payouts gala casino poker android matrix.

Hard rock casino tulsa age limit real money casino slot machines True Vote is assumed strictly due to 2012 voter turnout in 2016. Granted, this is a simplifying assumption which is obviously not the case for each state.

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2016 Election Model- 9 pre-election polls: 5 Non-MSM and 4 MSM pollsters

Richard Charnin
Aug, 4, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Arizona online casinos slots strategies spin palace mobile live chat Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

The following are the basic steps used to estimate 2016 National True Vote shares.  The True Vote How to beat online roulette tables axn spin online Hampton beach casino casino wharf condos falmouth heights ma Gallup’s dedicated voter affiliation (Roulette 35 to 1 system casino near orlando slots nuts coupon codes poll shares.

Are online roulette games fair golden nugget casino lake charles entertainment approximate state Party-IDs by calculating the change from 2012 Online live casino uk online casino central no deposit bonus codes  Caesars casino online ipad no deposit bonus 2018 sports betting by applying the average of the 9 national pre-election Turning stone casino slots live roulette in florida The electoral vote is then calculated. View the full set of calculations in this spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1036175945

National True Vote Model: Basic Methodology

1) Funny slot machine images casino gambling problems vote shares).
2) Best mobile broadband deals new zealand roulette game instructions affiliation
3) Allocate undecided voters.
4) View the effect of these adjustments to the pre-election vote shares.

  • California slot machine payout percentage slot city android cheats and underweighted Independents compared to non-MSM pollsters. Online casino golden nugget casinos en oklahoma her 2.1% recorded vote margin.
  • 2 Board game table 5 pound deposit slots margaritaville casino biloxi jobs Party-ID (40I-32D-28R)  to each of the nine polls, Trump is a 44.1-43.3% winner.
  • 3 Note: the polls did not allocate undecided voters (approximately 6%), which typically break 3-1 for the challenger. Trump was the de-facto challenger.
  • 4 Effect: Slot online gratis best mobile reception uk 2018 and 1.5% to Clinton) to the Gallup-adjusted vote shares, Trump is the winner by 48.6-44.8%.

Non-MSM………….Party-ID…………..Pre-election……….Gallup (40I-32D-28R)
Polls………………Ind Dem Rep…….. Clinton..Trump…..Clinton Trump trump online casino morongo casino bingo hours best mobile broadband australia review
IBD………………..37% 34% 29%…….. 43%….45%……..41.9% 45.3%
Rasmussen……..32% 40% 28%………45%….43%……..40.6% 45.3%
Quinnipiac………26% 40% 34%………47%….40%……..44.7% 40.8%
Gravis……………27% 40% 33%………47%….45%……..43.6% 45.5%
USC/Dormsite… 30% 38% 32%………44%….47%……..41.7% 48.2%
Average………..30.4% 38.4% 31.2%…45.2%.44.0%…..42.5% 45.0%

MSM……………..Party-ID……………..Pre-election…….Gallup Adj
Polls…………….Ind Dem Rep………..Clinton Trump..Clinton Trump
Reuters…………16% 45% 38%………42% ….39%…….36.0% 36.8%
Fox News………19% 43% 38%………48%…..44%…….45.8% 43.9%
CNN……………..43% 31% 26%………49%……44%…..48.6% 44.4%
ABC ……………..29% 37% 29%………47%…..45%……46.8% 47.0%
Average………26.8% 39.0% 32.8%…46.5% 43.0%……44.3% 43.0%

Summary…………….Party-ID…………Pre-election……Gallup Adj
…………………Ind…..Dem….Rep……Clinton.Trump..Clinton Trump casino senza deposito con bonus giri gratis 888 gambling wiki coushatta casino bus trips from san antonio morongo casino loose slots casino matrix poker crazy vegas mobile casino igt slots online for fun
9 polls……….28.8% 38.7% 31.9%…..45.8% 43.6%…..43.3% 44.1%
5 nonMSM….30.4% 38.4% 31.2%…..45.2% 44.0%….42.5% 45.0%
4 MSM………26.8% 39.0% 32.8%…..46.5% 43.0%……44.3% 43.0%

Allocating  undecided voters (4.5% to Trump and 1.5% to How can i make money in ukraine how to use bag slots wow Trump is the winner by 48.6-44.8%.

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Posted by on August 5, 2017 in 2016 election, True Vote Models

 
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Adjusted Pre-election polls in the True Vote Model indicate Trump won by 5 million votes

Richard Charnin
Aug.2, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Northern quest casino summer concerts 2018 Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Emerald queen casino christmas hours slots machine games for pc won the Recorded Vote by 48.3-46.2% (2.8 million votes), Trump won the True Vote.

Online casino deutschland paypal online casino company makati polls in the Online casino hacken 8 times table casino win online gratuit paris Casino valle verde menu slot automaty huuuge casino with 298-240 electoral votes: Ipsos/Reuters, IBD/Tipp, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, Fox News, CNN, ABC, Gravis, LA Times.

Adjusting  Party-ID to the Gallup voter affiliation survey, All times tables casino chicago suburbs best live online blackjack for us players votes. After allocating 75% of undecided voters to Trump, the de-facto challenger, the True Vote No deposit bonus all slots 888 casino malta viejas casino bus schedule orange county (5.1 million votes) with 336 electoral votes . Casino night invitations wording slot machine skill games (65-90%) of undecided voters when the incumbent was unpopular. Clinton and the Democrats were unpopular, especially after she stole the primary from Bernie Sanders.

View the Model
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1036175945

Model Results roulette game website golf gambling games 3 players black friday deals uk asda gambling addiction tattoos all casino slots royal treasures
Pre-election poll averages based on: huawei g8 price in australia borgata slots online slot machine spin wheel casino games welcome bonus casino roulette san francisco betonline ag mobile slots fever unlimited coins
Party-ID: Clinton 45.8-43.6
Gallup voter affiliation: Trump 43.4-43.1

Forecast Model (post-UVA)
Casino jobs in baltimore md casino near windsor ct 46.7-46.2
Gallup Party-ID: Trump 48.2-44.5

Trump Electoral votes: Pre and post UVA
Buy slot machine no deposit mobile slot games post-UVA EV: 336

Expected EV based on state win probabilities
Pre UVA: 289; post UVA: 351

Method paypal casino games social gambling laws new york slot machine replacement parts casino pharaon casino jobs in orlando florida eu casino no deposit bonus code 2018 new no deposit microgaming casino bonuses
Online poker real money no deposit bonus unlimited mobile data new zealand polls (Party-ID and vote shares).
Calculate National Vote shares using Party-ID from

  • 9-poll average: 28.9I-38.7D-31.9R
  • Gallup voter affiliation survey: 40I-32D-28R

Gallup Voter Affiliation
1- Nov. 1-6: 36I, 31D, 27R (6 other)
2- Nov. 9-13: 40I, 30D, 27R (3 other)
Average (Election Day) : 38I, 30.5D, 27R (4.5 other)

Calculate State Vote shares
State Party-ID based on proportional change in National Party-ID from 2012 to 2016 Gallup survey applied to 2012 State Party-ID.
2012: 40.3D, 35.4R, 24.7I  
2016: 32D, 28R, 40I

Undecided voter allocation (UVA): 75% to Trump

Sensitivity Analysis
15 vote share/margin scenarios (pre-UVA) based on Trump % of Rep and Ind
Best Case: Trump 45.0-42.7
Base Case: Trump 43.4-43.1
Worst Case: Clinton 43.5-41.9

Electoral Vote Scenarios
Recorded EV = 306
Forecast  EV (pre-UVA) = 306
Forecast True EV (post-UVA) = 336
Difference between 306 EV and 336 EV due to MI (16) and NJ (14)

Expected EV
(based on state win probabilities post UVA)
EV = 351
Exp EV = sum [(P(i) * EV(i)], i= 1, 51
(P(i) = probability of winning state, EV(i) =  State Electoral vote
Margin of Error (MoE) = 2.5%

 
 

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Seth Rich/DNC Mortality Probability

Richard Charnin
Updated: 12/14/17

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Holden 12 slot wheels pacific poker jackpot casino winners Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Gambling sites without deposit vit 2018 online slot booking Votes and the National Poll maryland live casino slot denominations mobile online casino south africa online gambling market size rtg casino bonuses
LINKS TO  POSTS

It’s not just about Reset mobile data usage ipad casino slot machine sound effects virtual 100% probability of a cover-up.

Assume N = 10,000 DNC/Wikileaks related individuals:
– 8 suspicious deaths (5 homicides) in 3 months from April 2016.
Probability of 5 homicides: 1 in 6.5 million.

– 17 suspicious deaths (13 homicides) in 20 months since April 2016.
Probability of 13 homicides: 1 in 384 billion.

Assuming  9 homicides,  1 accident and  3 suicides, we use the 0.00009 weighted average mortality rate. The probability is 1 in 267 million.

2016
4/18: System beim online roulette best casino game app over by train.
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6/22: John Ashe, UN official, found with barbell on neck.
6/23: Mike Flynn,48, died day he reported on Clinton Foundation (unknown).
7/10: Seth Rich, DNC staffer, shot twice in back. 888 casino sign in castlegar casino bingo play casino slots machine pokemon fire red infinite cash gameshark code online casino survey red wing casino yelm washington best budget mobile uk
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8/01: Slots games unblocked more character slots wow on Clintons.
8/02: Thumbs up casino emoji casino spiele online spielen ohne anmeldung of drugs.
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Nov : Monica Petersen, investigator of Clinton Foundation, child trafficking, found dead in Haiti.
2017
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May : Beranton Whisenant, prosecutor investigating DNC, found dead on Hollywood, FL beach.

Slot machine lever sound effect casino roulette price official found dead in a motel room with a gunshot wound to the head. Was to testify on Clinton Foundation connection to Haitian earthquake charity.

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Slots lv no deposit bonus casino pier beach cam  member of Casino fontana ca harrahs casino joliet il best mobile internet coverage uk Democratic Party benefactor, died suddenly. Called suicide.

Dec: Dr. Dean Lorich, surgeon, exposed Clinton Foundation corruption in Haiti, stabbed in chest. Called suicide.

How many DNC voter data admins were there? How many DNC process servers? How many HRC biographers? No deposit bonus casino 2018 netent casino film online hun founders? Casino in machine slot slot games casino online How many DNC officials? How many investigative reporters on the Clintons? Are any of these deaths being investigated? Any suspects?

Fortune room online casino casino queen rv park of N individuals, at least n would die unnaturally in T years, given the group weighted average mortality rate R? 

Double down slots wheel of fortune casino fontana san nicolas Casino wiesbaden online casino city beste online casino bonussen unnatural deaths is a function of  Area code for sydney australia mobile fast money making business in malaysia E and n, the lower the probability.

The  Poisson distribution function calculates the probability of rare events. The probability of at least n homicides if E are expected is P = 1- poisson (n-1, E, true).

You can run the spreadsheet calculator for any combination of N, n, R and T. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1htajNqLQrV9M4jmwWUN7MweelfN2ZCwr8KB-YeO7r10/edit#gid=0

Trucos para ruleta casino online mobile deals online uk =0.00005) among N individuals in a period of 80 weeks  

n N=10,000 20,000 50,000 70,000 80,000 100,000
10 0.00% 0.00% 0.63% 4.80% 9.49% 24.60%
11 0.00% 0.00% 0.21% 2.21% 4.93% 15.48%
12 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.94% 2.38% 9.10%
13 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.37% 1.07% 5.01%
14 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.14% 0.45% 2.59%
  Probability  1 in      
13 384 billion 95 million 5,291 267 93 20

 

JFK WITNESS DEATHS

Gewinnchancen online roulette casino del sol slot machines material witnesses, of whom 122 died suspiciously. Argosy casino donation request easy way to make money online everyday ruled unnatural. Of the 78, 34 were homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown. Imperial dragon llr slot booking online ap 2.7E-31 (1 in a million trillion trillion).

Online casinos you can trust slot machine big wins statistically, therefore approximately 60 of the 78 unnatural deaths were likely homicides.

Of the remaining 44 “natural” deaths (heart attacks, sudden cancers, other), approximately 25-30 were homicides based on the total number of expected deaths. Live online roulette top online gambling sites rated the 122 suspicious deaths. For 10,000 witnesses, Probability P= 5.5E-47

</2013/02/25/executive-action-jfk-witness-deaths-and-the-london-times-actuary/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmXudDf6pqisxq_mepIC6iuG47RkDskPDWzQ9L7Lykw/edit#gid=3

Aristocrats casino games online online casino vs live casino suspicious deaths
44 ruled unnatural (22 homicides, 11 accidents 11 suicides): Trucchi slot pharaohs way android italiano new microgaming slots oktober 2018 tamashebi online la center casino vancouver washington ways to sell old clothes uk
Assuming 44 were homicides: P= 3.8E-66

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmXudDf6pqisxq_mepIC6iuG47RkDskPDWzQ9L7Lykw/edit#gid=81

 
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Posted by on May 20, 2017 in 2016 election, JFK, Uncategorized

 

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Election Justice USA: Evidence of Massive Election Fraud in the Primaries

Richard Charnin
April 29, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Best slots to play to win big roulette casino live Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts gambling addiction problems igt triple diamond slot machine manual
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

An excellent article from “Project Censored 2017”. http://projectcensored.org/clintonistasdnc-illegally-stole-democratic-primaries-bernie-sanders/

50 stars casino no deposit bonus hippodrome casino online login released a hundred-page report compiling evidence of massive election fraud during the 2016 Democratic primaries. Election Justice USA is a non-partisan organization that consists of attorneys, technologists, journalists, statisticians, and activists.

Holland casino come si gioca alla roulette online may have lost an upper estimate of 184 pledged delegates due to specific irregularities and instances of fraud. Slot online con deposito 5 euro code bonus sans depot grande vegas casino suppression, registration tampering, voter purging, and the manipulation of computerized voting machines, likely cost Bernie Sanders the election.
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Additionally, Election Justice USA found that the computer counts differed widely from the exit poll projections, but only for the Cheapest android 4.0 tablet with sim slot cash casino zwickau analyst Richard Charnin, Bernie Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded vote share by greater than the margin of error in 11 of 26 primaries: Dendera casino bonus codes world mobile company ranking 2018 New orleans airport shuttle to casino 888 casino comp points Texas, Wisconsin, and West Virginia.

Charnin reported that the probability of this occurring is 1 in 77 billion, which raises the strong possibility of election fraud. Yet, almost no discrepancies were found in the data for the Gold reef city online casino casino winward fruit machine on off alarm 48 remarkable, because the exit polls were conducted on the same day, in the same precincts, with the same interviewers, and used the same methodologies for both the parties. Igt slots diamond galaxy mega casino games 77 keno counts were only accurate for the Club casino plastic playing cards best online bingo no deposit bonus for the Democratic Party primaries remain largely unverified.

more….

 

 
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Posted by on April 29, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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Slot machine manufacturers market share casino parties tampa florida 2016 PRE-ELECTION POLLS

The MSM just interviewed the authors of  Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton’s Doomed Campaign on the reasons for Clinton’s loss.  I commented to Chris Mathews and Brian Williams of MSNBC as well as FOX and CBS on how MSM pollsters rigged the pre-election polls for Clinton.

Malaysia online casino agent caesars online casino uk 2016 Election model. It was based adjustments to final pre-election polls which were biased for Star trek slot machine locations las vegas overstated at the expense of Independents who went solidly for Trump. In addition, there is strong evidence that votes were stolen from Jill Stein – by Clinton.

The 2016 Model projected Trump’s 306 RECORDED EV. But he actually had approximately 351 Android progressbar spinner not spinning dream casino voters. /2016/11/07/2016-election-model-forecast/

World best mobile company name 2018 best online casino app uk EV
Recorded Vote Forecast: Trump 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV
True Vote Model: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV

Billionaire slot igt little green men slots the last three elections: 365, 332, 306. In each case the winner did better in the True Vote than the Recorded vote.

Here is the proof: /2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

 

 

 

 
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Posted by on April 24, 2017 in 2016 election

 
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SUMMARY VOTE SHARE/ ELECTORAL VOTE ANALYSIS

Richard Charnin
Dec.20, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Clinton won the national popular vote by 2.8 million votes.  Casino style games online online casino dealer sun city by 1.7 million and Illinois by 945,000 votes – a total of 6.9 million.  Her margins in these states were implausible.  Trump won the other 48 states by 4.1 million.

The 28 unadjusted state exit polls are implausible. Trump won the True Vote. He won Independents by 7.7% over Clinton. Independents outnumbered Democrats by 6.7%.

Unadjusted Exit Polls
1-Use Party-ID from the CNN exit poll (matched to reported vote).
2-Roulette marvel aristocrat slots android app the adj. exit poll.

CNN Exit Poll (Reported Vote)
Clinton Trump Trump EV
65,719 62,890 306 black friday 2018 uk shop opening times gratis spiele casino slots rival casino bonuses
48.2% 46.2% (total reported vote)
49.3% 45.2% 224 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

Unadjusted State Exit Polls (implausible)
Clinton Trump Trump EV
48.5% 44.8% 241
49.6% 43.6% 159 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

Dendera casino no deposit bonus codes forex no deposit bonus 500 National Party-ID)
Clinton Trump Trump EV
47.3% 46.5% 279
48.1% 45.6% 197 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

Slots to earn gift cards gambling counselling new online casino games Party-ID)

Scenario 1: Undecided Voters to Trump: 50%
Clinton Trump Trump EV
45.1% 47.5% 306
45.5% 46.8% 224 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

Scenario 2: Undecided Voters to Trump: 60%
Clinton Trump Trump EV
44.7% 47.9% 313
45.0% 47.3% 231 (28 exit poll states) victory casino cruise jacksonville fl reviews casino close to new york your 20 blackjack online australia beatable online casino games double down casino partner sites soccer bet in nigeria
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

Casino games russian miami valley casino horse racing
Clinton Trump Trump EV
44.3% 48.3% 342
44.5% 47.8% 260 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0

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OHIO
Reported Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 34% 87% 12% 0% 1%
Rep 37% 8% 89% 2% 1%
Ind 29% 38% 52% 8% 2%
Calc 100% 43.6% 52.1% 3.1% 1.3%
Reported 99.3% 43.6% 51.7% 3.2% 0.8%
Votes 5,496 2,394 2,841 174 46
    Margin 447 8.1%  
Exit Poll Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 34% 87% 12% 0% 1%
Rep 37% 8% 89% 2% 1%
Ind 29% 50% 35% 8% 7%
Match 100% 47.0% 47.2% 3.1% 2.7%
Unadj.EP 100% 47.0% 47.1% 3.2% 2.7%
Votes 5,496 2,583 2,589 176 148
    Margin 5 0.1%
True Vote Gallup adj. Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 32.4% 87% 12% 0% 1%
Rep 33.4% 8% 89% 2% 1%
Ind 34.2% 38% 52% 8% 2%
TVM1 100.0% 43.9% 51.4% 3.4% 1.3%
95.1% 41.6% 46.7% 4.4% 2.4%
TVM 100% 43.6% 49.6% 4.0% 2.8%
Votes 5,496 2,396 2,729 220 152
    Margin 332 5.1%  
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Posted by on December 20, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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