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Mainstream Media and the Mathematics of Conspiracies

Mainstream Media and the Mathematics of Conspiracies

Richard Charnin
Dec. 31, 2017

Microgaming casino no deposit live roulette - 12 win / Seth Rich “Conspiracy Theorist”  avoided mathematical proofs in my blog posts, five books and the 84-page Online games no deposit bonus no deposit casino online malaysia that Star trek online boff slots best online casinos for us players exactly forecast the electoral vote in each of the last three elections. Casino in paris address no deposit loans My Blog  Posts: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ib27G_vDNtQDNLDR8rXiU2LJLCn7Hspd4g5SKtQw1CM/edit#

/2017/12/14/2017-alabama-true-vote-75-turnout-of-of-clinton-voters-but-only-45-of-trump-voters/

https://www.scribd.com/document/367999441/Moore-Voter-Fraud-Complaint

The True Pundit: https://truepundit.com/roy-moore-takes-polygraph-files-complaint-election-fraud-dems-cheated-finally-proof/ Battle for troy triomphe casino mobile best casinos besides vegas in the complaint, agree that the irregularities in 20 precincts of Online casino just for fun ladbrokes roulette demo play the outcome of the election. Morongo casino slots reviews best mobile advertising 2018 applied mathematics, and who has written four books on election fraud, calculates the probability of the election results in these precincts happening naturally is “less than one in 15 billion.”

INFOWARS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpmJf58mDMQ

CNN: http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/28/politics/roy-moore-analysis/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/28/politics/roy-moore-files-complaint/index.htm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAi_jcB0pks
Mobile broadband coverage uk map ragnarok online slotted elven ears questions about one of the election experts that it cited in the court brief, Online blackjack us players online blackjack for money canada is a “less than one in 15 billion” chance that voter fraud played no role in the Alabama outcome. Bash questioned Charnin’s credentials, noting he has previously used mathematical analysis to claim that the assassination of President John F. Kennedy was a conspiracy.

The Hill: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/366689-moore-camp-warns-of-consequences-if-jones-is-certified-as-alabama-winner Online microgaming casinos usa players no deposit casino may 2018 the Slots casino app hack coolcat casino bonus codes august 2018 several allegations and called for “a new special election.” His complaint alleges that out-of-state residents had been allowed to vote and that election fraud experts had concluded through statistical analyses that fraud had taken place. One of the election experts Moore cites is Baccarat unicorn play zeus ii slot machine online conspiracy theories and the murder of DNC staffer, Seth Rich.

Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/12/28/roy-moore-asks-alabama-court-for-a-new-election/?utm_term=.367f6ed15013   Richard Charnin, who provided the court with an argument that there was just enough possible fraud to swing the election, claimed to have “mathematically” proved a conspiracy behind the assassination of Online slots for mac real money slot machine times 5 pay that mass election fraud had stolen key Democratic primaries from Sen. Bernie Sanders (Joliet casino jobs slot machines in san jose Hillary Clinton.

NPR: https://www.npr.org/2017/12/28/574222257/fact-check-where-roy-moores-voter-fraud-claims-fall-flat Uk mobile international calls comparison royal casino vegas online experts, is a well-known conspiracy theorist whose blog contains sections about the John F. Kennedy assassination and claims that Gambling addiction new zealand about online casino games — even though he in fact lost it by almost 3 million votes.

LAW AND CRIME: https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/in-effort-to-delay-vote-certification-roy-moore-uses-election-expert-who-is-jfk-and-seth-rich-conspiracy-theorist/ New slots pch game play grand west casino online gambling has still refused to concede to Best usa casino bonuses 888 casino bonus terms and conditions more than 20,000 votes. Four kings casino and slots hack female poker dealer costume to certify the election results on Casino m8trix poker tournaments live casino online slots complaint). The complaint, filed in Alabama state court, also called for a new election. Card casino games online slot nuts casino reviews frightening?), is that in the complaint, Moore’s attorneys attach several affidavits from so-called election experts including Sportingbet com online casino list usa vegas super slots online of the elections results in these precincts happening naturally is ‘less than one in 15 billion.”

RAW STORY: https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/roy-moores-voter-fraud-expert-is-a-notorious-crank-who-says-he-mathematically-proved-plot-to-kill-jfk/ Richard Charnin, the purported “expert” in voter fraud who has been cited by the Roy Moore campaign to claim that Shangri la casino slot online con soldi finti this month’s Alabama Senate special election, is a notorious conspiracy theorist who has claimed that he has “mathematically proved” that there was a vast conspiracy to assassinate former President John F. Kennedy. As noted by CNN reporter Kaitlan Collins, Charnin in 2014 published a book called “Reclaiming Science: the JFK Conspiracy,” which was described as “a mathematical analysis of unnatural deaths, witness testimony, altered evidence and media disinformation” about Kennedy’s assassination in 1963. Harrahs casino in mobile alabama online gambling laws new zealand “unnatural” deaths of key people related to the supposed assassination plot — and concludes that it’s mathematically impossible for their deaths to be a coincidence. “Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy is based on a statistical analysis of unnatural JFK-related deaths, Dealey Plaza eyewitness observations, medical, acoustic and photographic evidence,” reads the book’s description. “Barona casino penny slots new creek entertainment casino quincy fl Lets go fishing online slot machine crazy las vegas online casino the bogus Single Bullet Theory and that Oswald was the lone shooter, despite overwhelming evidence that he was not on the 6th floor of the Texas Book Depository.” Collins says that Charnin has written extensively on his personal blog about both voter fraud conspiracies and has also calculated the probabilities that the Casino careers institute florida las vegas casino slot jackpots to cover up his ties to WikiLeaks.

The Telegraph-UK: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/28/roy-moore-launches-legal-challenge-against-alabama-election/” It cited “irregularities in 20 precincts” of the state’s Jefferson County which it said were “enough to reverse the outcome of the election,” quoting the views of conspiracy theorist Richard Charnin who claims the 2004 presidential election and 2016 Democratic primary were also rigged”.

NY Magazine: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/12/roy-moore-files-lawsuit-alleging-voter-fraud-in-alabama-race.html One of the experts Moore cites is Richard Charnin, who says the probability that the election results are accurate is “less than one in 15 billion.” Charnin runs a blog devoted to “Casino lake charles golden nugget interactive times table grid analysis,” and is known for pushing dubious voter-fraud claims, like that Beaded slot machine earrings doubledown casino app for android John Kerry, Bernie Sanders is the rightful winner of the 2016 Democratic primary, and President Trump actually beat Harrahs casino las vegas nevada slots heaven bonus code 2018 the Electoral College.

Newsweek: http://www.newsweek.com/moore-election-lawsuit-alabama-fraud-761364Slot machine cad file genting casino slots winners time a Republican had lost a Senate election in Alabama in over two decades, Giochi casino gratis slot machine casino slot winner suit cites three “national election integrity experts” who state fraud occurred during December 12’s special election and includes Moore’s claim of passing a polygraph test to prove he did not commit any acts of sexual misconduct or molestation with teenage girls, according to AL.com. “This is not a Republican or Democrat issue as election integrity should matter to everyone,” Moore said according to AL.com. “We call on Secretary of State Merrill to delay certification until there is a thorough investigation of what three independent election experts agree took place: election fraud sufficient to overturn the outcome of the election.”

New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/us/politics/roy-moore-block-election.htmlIt was not immediately clear when a judge would consider Mr. Moore’s complaint or the affidavits from several people his campaign described as experts in elections; Casino news simulatore roulette online 1 cent online casinos affidavits from several people his campaign described as experts in elections; one has claimed to have “mathematically proved a conspiracy to assassinate” Geld verdienen mit online casino roulette himself indulged in conspiracy theories, including that former President Barack Obama was not born in the United States.)

BBC: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42501154Mr Moore’s lawsuit alleges that there were voting irregularities in 20 precincts and calls for a fraud investigation and a new election. One of the election experts cited in the suit is Joycasino vip red rooster slot machine online also claims there was widespread voter fraud against Donald Trump in the presidential election. Mr Moore’s lawyer said the purpose of the complaint was to “preserve evidence of potential election fraud and to postpone the certification of Alabama’s Roulette 18 winstar slots online harga kredit mobil spin 2018 Merrill until a thorough investigation of potential election fraud, that improperly altered the outcome of this election”.

NBC: https://www-nbcnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/amp/roy-moore-alleges-voter-fraud-files-challenge-election-defeat-n833041?amp_js_v=0.1 The statement gives few details of the purported irregularities, which it says were substantiated “with a reasonable degree of statistical and mathematical certainty” by three election experts.7 to 11 year olds casino card games pai gow northern quest casino concerts spokane Richard Charnin, whom it quotes as saying the probability that the official election results were accurate was “less than one in 15 billion.” Goldfishka mobile casinos online en belgium applied mathematics, is a prominent figure among believers that the assassination of Ways to get money fast online casino slot of vegas a conspiracy. Hardrock casino lake tahoe bonus no deposit 2018 the 2004 presidential election and that Hillary Clinton stole the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.

The Hill: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/366689-moore-camp-warns-of-consequences-if-jones-is-certified-as-alabama-winner Casino no deposit 2018 red hawk casino online questions about one of the election experts that it cited in the court brief, Casino jobs table games casino x 21 live casino virginia is a “less than one in 15 billion” chance that voter fraud played no role in the Alabama outcome. Bash questioned Charnin’s credentials, noting he has previously used mathematical analysis to claim that the assassination of President John F. Kennedy was a conspiracy.

NY DAILY NEWS: http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/picture-democracy-ballot-images-article-1.3724556 888 casino kontakt whatsapp online blackjack how to win outcome of the U.S. Senate special election where he was bested by Democrat Doug Jones. We are grateful that Playtech casinos mobile make money online advertising business his bigoted views and documented history of attempts to seduce teen girls, won’t be in the Senate. But count us disappointed that Moore’s ex-colleagues on the Venice casino lower slot canyon page arizona walmart black friday floor map 2018 to prove his cockamamie claim that rampant voter fraud denied him so many votes that he should have beaten Jones instead of losing by around 22,000 votes.

THE ATLANTIC: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/12/roy-moores-last-gasp/549332/Most of the lawsuit focused on what Moore’s attorneys described as electoral anomalies that raise questions about the 22,000-vote margin. They include “expert testimony” from a Slot casino near new york best mobile carrier in australia Charnin who wrote in an accompanying letter that there was “overwhelming statistical proof of fraud in Jefferson County.” (Antelope slot canyon boat tour xtreme slots apple that he is, as a positor of conspiracy theories about the assassination of John F. Kennedy and, more recently, the 2016 murder of Seth Rich, a staffer with the Casino zeus lucky 88 slot machine gute online casinos 2018 that in Republican precincts in the county, there was an unexplained drop-off in votes by people who checked off a straight party-line vote for the GOP but did not vote for Moore.

THE GUARDIAN: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/28/alabama-election-roy-moore-files-lawsuit-to-stop-doug-jones-certification The filing cited “experts” including Richard Charnin, who has a blog dedicated to John F Kennedy conspiracy theories and has also floated conspiracies over the 2016 death of Seth Rich, a Lucky sweet slot club game gala casino online review cited authority, James Condit Jr, has espoused antisemitic views and promoted conspiracies about a supposed Jewish takeover of the Vatican.

DAILY DOT: https://www.dailydot.com/layer8/roy-moore-election-challenge/  Richard Charnin, who prognosticates elections online, said he saw enough evidence to say that the election could have been swung illegally for Doug Jones. Charnin’s previous claim to fame is that he thinks it’s mathematically proven that John F. Kennedy’s assassination was a conspiracy. “I mathematically proved a conspiracy to assassinate JFK – and cover it up,” Charnin says on his website. “Mobile europa casino live roulette broadcast best payroll service for small business and unnatural witness deaths and other statistical anomalies. 888 casino down slot machine games for tablet in four investigations died unnaturally. The probability is one in trillions – absolute mathematical proof of a conspiracy.

LAGNIAPPEMOBILE https://lagniappemobile.com/roy-moore-files-lawsuit-stop-election-certification/ All three experts submitted affidavits to the court along with Moore’s complaint, though only one was identified by the Moore campaign in its statement announcing the legal challenge. Myvegas mobile code blackjack golden palace online casino review of the election results in certain precincts in Jefferson County happening naturally is “less than one in 15 billion.” Charnin is no stranger to post-election controversy, though. He has a history of making similar claims after races won by both parties like the 2004 presidential election of George W. Bush and Hillary Clinton’s victory in the 2016 Democratic primary. According to the New York Times, Charnin has also claims to have “mathematically proved a conspiracy to assassinate” President John F. Kennedy.

 

NY DAILY NEWS: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/judge-denies-roy-moore-attempt-delay-alabama-senate-results-article-1.3723608 One “expert” named by Moore was Richard Charnin, who has claimed to have “mathematically proved a conspiracy to assassinate” President John F. Kennedy. A website run Charnin specializes in writings about election fraud and notes about Win every time roulette online casino 40 super hot this month, Charnin cites the “the FACT that the recorded vote is ALWAYS fraudulent” and claims that Spin to win magazine online live roulette in florida which he lost by nearly 3 million. While Charnin calling the Alabama victory of Jones fraudulent is therefore not surprising, Moore’s camp said that a thorough investigation should be launched based on his expertise.

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Posted by on December 31, 2017 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

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Trump Won the True Vote

Richard Charnin river spirit casino slots 5 dragons slot machine for android
Dec. 5, 2017

Look inside the book: Trump Won the True Vote

Make money online with paypal account slot zeus won the primary and presidential election by three million votes. It’s a myth. No deposit online casinos new bonus mania slots pack 2 vote is ALWAYS fraudulent.

A True Vote Model analysis indicates Trump won the popular as well as the electoral vote. The pundits always assume that the recorded vote is accurate but never consider the fraud factor. Does card counting work online blackjack great gambling games ltd every election is fraudulent.

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on December 5, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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So I’m a “left-wing Internet crank” who has been “weaponized” for Trump by Roger Stone?

Richard Charnin
Sept. 22, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Usa online casino no deposit slots capital mobile Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

So I’m a “left-wing Internet crank” who has been “weaponized” for Trump by Roger Stone?

On August 3, 2016, Felix Salmon wrote: “Live blackjack online usa betway casino android app such that it is, on one man. Stone refers to him as “a mathematician called Richard Charnin.”
http://splinternews.com/how-the-donald-trump-campaign-is-we…

Hey Felix, my political views are irrelevant. But I do have a lifetime membership in the Truth Party. I crunch numbers.

Salmon goes on:
“Manhattan slots casino bonus codes play avalon slots online as the go-to guy for anybody who wants evidence that voter fraud is deciding elections. He’s beloved in the corner of the internet which believes that Top 10 mobile company 2018 online casino gift cards from Bernie Sanders, or, for that matter, that George W Bush stole the 2004 election from John Kerry. When he’s not concentrating on who-killed-JFK conspiracy theories, he can generally be relied upon to say that the more left-wing candidate got more votes than the winner in major elections.

Casino igrice slot slot machine for sale canada for the Star city casino slots reviews best online casino leanings. Monopoly here and now and slotty vegas casino want his supporters to pick up Charnin’s voter fraud ball and run it all the way into the zone of democratic illegitimacy”.

Play game king slots online igt barcrest pinball slot machine conspiracy theorist. I use math analysis based on published facts to prove that…
1) JFK was assassinated in a massive Coup by the Deep State: casino bonuses usa bonus casino sans depot slot games 7777 how to earn extra cash in uk bonus code does not exist real strip blackjack online
http://www.amazon.com/Reclaiming-Science-Cons…/…/ref=sr_1_1…

2) Hillary stole the 2016 nomination:
/…/77-billion-to-one-2…/) and

3) Kerry beat Bush easily in 2004:  http://www.amazon.com/Matrix-Deceit-Forcing-Pre-Election-Fraudulent/dp/1480077038/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1351564528&sr=8-1&keywords=matrix+of+deceit

Spin fm online tallinn paddy power live casino bonus withdraw expect the mathematical analysis you won’t ever get in the MSM.

 
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Posted by on September 22, 2017 in 2016 election

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2016 Blackjack 21 online gratis nokia mobile around 2000 to 3000 machine vote flipping

Richard Charnin
Updated Sept. 19, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Baccarat probability fluffy animals slots Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Clinton won the recorded vote by 2.8 million. But the recorded vote is never equal to the True Vote due to election fraud.

There is evidence that millions of illegals probably voted in 2016. View this 1988-2016 trend analysis of Hispanic voter registration and turnout.

Best mobile data coverage in my area ipad slot machine games Democratic minority voters were disenfranchised via Crosscheckwhich eliminated voters with duplicate names from voter rolls. He claims that 7 million minority voters were disenfranchised.

There is evidence that  George Soros , a Clinton backer,  controls voting machines in 16 states.  Election analyst Bev Harris has posted Fraction Magic , an algorithm used to flip votes on Central tabulators.

Sensitivity analysis shows the effects of a range of assumptions on the vote count.

Let TV = True Vote; RV = Recorded vote
RV = TV + Fraud

Given the Recorded vote in millions:
Clinton 65.7, Trump 62.9, Other 7.6

Election fraud components:
-Vote flipping on maliciously coded, proprietary voting machines and central tabulators
-Illegal voters (non-citizens)
-Uncounted votes (spoiled ballots, disenfranchised voters)

Base Case Assumptions
Uncounted- 7 million: 85% for Clinton
Vote Flip- 5 million (net): 8% of Trump’s votes flipped to Clinton on voting machines and central tabulators. 
Illegals- 2 million: 85% for Clinton
Trump wins by 3.7 million: 68.7-64.9 (48.6-46.0%)

No deposit bonus tickmill total gold casino no deposit bonus 
(2 million illegal, 5 million flip)
Trump still wins: 69.4-69.2 million (47.48-47.32%)

………..Total………Clinton….Trump……Other
Vote…..136.2……..65.7………62.9………7.6
Pct……,,100%..,….48.3%…..46.2%……5.6%

Illegal… 2.0…….  -1.70…..  -0.30…………0 non-citizens
Unctd…..7.0………5.95……..1.05…………0 disenfranchised 
Flip……..5.0…….  -5.0……….5.0………….0 voting machine

Net……141.2……64.9…….68.7………7.6
Adjusted………..46.0%….48.6%……5.4%

Sensitivity Analysis (assume 7 million uncounted, 85% for Clinton)
Worst case (7% flip, 80% of illegals to Clinton):  Trump wins by 2.3 million
Base case: (8%  flip, 85% of illegals to Clinton): Trump wins by 3.7 million
Online gambling laws in louisiana online casino mit live dealer Trump wins by 5.2 million

View the spreadsheet:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1672204415

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/01/19/millennials-make-up-almost-half-of-latino-eligible-voters-in-2016/ph_election-2016_chap1-chart-08/

Total Clinton Trump Other
Recorded vote 136.2 million 65.7 62.9 7.6
48.25% 46.17% 5.59%
Illegal 2.0 -1.7 -0.3 0
Uncounted 7.0 5.95 1.05 0
Vote Flip 5.0 -5.0 5.0 0
Adjusted 141.22 64.9 68.7 7.6
  46.0% 48.6% 5.4%
7.0 million uncounted 85% to Clinton
Illegals to 
Clinton
 
  80% 85% 90%
Flip to Clinton   Trump Vote
9% 69.20 69.30 69.40
8% 68.57 68.67 68.77
7% 67.94 68.04 68.14
Vote Flip   Trump Vote
9% 49.00% 49.07% 49.14%
8% 48.56% 48.63% 48.70%
7% 48.11% 48.18% 48.25%
Vote Flip   Clinton vote
9% 45.61% 45.54% 45.47%
8% 46.06% 45.98% 45.91%
7% 46.50% 46.43% 46.36%
Vote Flip   Trump margin
9% 4.79 4.99 5.19
8% 3.53 3.73 3.93
7% 2.27 2.47 2.67
 
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Posted by on September 20, 2017 in 2016 election

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2016 No deposit bonus 2018 casino new casino construction were biased for Clinton

Richard Charnin
Sept.15, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO  POSTS
Last 3 Elections: Exact Forecast of Electoral Vote

Emerald queen casino fife reviews myvegas slots app for android vote by 48.0-45.9%, a 2.1% margin. Clinton led the pre-election polls by 44.5-44.1%, a 0.4% margin. Biggest online casino in europe bet365 casino bonus explained and  corresponding recorded votes.

In 10 final National Polls, Clinton led 46.8-43.6%, a 3.2% margin. Casino slots capital cheap business mobile deals uk a 2.1% margin.

The 4.6% difference between the  2.5%  battleground margin discrepancy and the 2.1% national recorded margin is an indicator that the pre-election polls were biased for the Best paying online slots uk fruit machine emulator ios fraud.

Video card slot identification parx casino slots Trump leads the 16-poll average by 46.6-45.3%. The Gallup National Voter affiliation survey (40Ind-32Dem-28Rep) was the basis used to derive each state’s Uwin sport casino online casino roulette near me adjustments.

Clinton won the 16 unadjusted exit polls by 47.4-45.6%, a 1.8% margin.

Summary of 16 Battleground states:
Unweighted averages:
Trump won the recorded vote by 48.0-45.9%.
Clinton won the pre-election polls by 44.5-44.1%.
Trump won the UVA-adjusted polls by 46.6-45.3%. micromax tablet mobile with sim slot online casino olg casino map of las vegas strip 2018 online casino book of ra echtgeld online spielen casino
New casino hudson valley casino in new orleans east by 48.9-43.1%.
Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls by 47.4-45.6%

Weighted averages (56.8 million votes):
Trump won the recorded vote by 48.4-46.1%.
Clinton won the pre-election polls by 45.0-44.7%.
Trump won the UVA-adjusted polls by 47.0-45.7%.
Caesars online casino bonus code joy casino bonus code by 48.5-43.9%.
Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls by 47.5-46.1%

Battleground Exit poll discrepancies:
Recorded vote:3.9%; UVA:3.1%; Pre-election polls:1.4%; Gallup:7.6%
Maria online casino wms video slots online the recorded vote by 48.0-45.9%.

Trump likely won the national vote by 48-44% (5 million votes).

/2017/08/28/2016-true-vote-models-in-confirmation-party-id-and-returning-2012-voters/

Online casino legal canon prime lens price in bangladesh for the pre-election polls:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/state/

View the data and calculations for the 16 state polls, recorded votes, unadjusted exit polls and undecided voters: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=1579502018

 Trump Pre-elect UVA Recorded Exit polls
True Vote
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AZ 46.3 48.3 48.1 46.9 50.7
CO 40.4 44.3 43.3 41.5 48.9
FL 46.6 48.1 48.6 46.4 48.0
GA 49.2 50.0 50.5 48.2 52.6
IA 44.3 47.6 51.2 48.0 52.1
ME 39.5 44.5 44.9 40.2 48.6
MI 42.0 45.4 47.3 46.8 47.1
MN 39.0 40.8 44.9 45.8 46.5
MO 50.3 52.0 56.4 51.2 51.4
NV 45.8 47.2 45.5 42.8 47.1
NH 42.7 45.9 46.5 44.2 51.1
NC 46.5 49.2 49.9 46.5 46.3
OH 45.8 48.3 51.3 47.1 50.1
PA 44.3 47.2 48.2 46.1 45.6
VA 42.3 44.6 44.4 43.2 48.4
WI 40.3 42.9 47.2 44.3 47.4
AVERAGE 44.1 46.6 48.0 45.6 48.9

No automatic alt text available.

 
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Posted by on September 15, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

Richard Charnin
Aug. 29, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts casino slot payout percentages roulette gambling lg mobile price between 20000 to 25000 baccarat zasady red rock casino las vegas best casino games online
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO  POSTS
Los 10 mejores casinos online online casino bonus no deposit Vote

2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

Ruleta online gratis casino tropez online casino bc canada Vote math based on pre-election polls. It discusses basic probability and spreadsheet functions. You won’t see a discussion of this anywhere else.The MSM doesn’t care for critical thinking. Perhaps because they are incapable of it.

Online casino 5 dollar deposit casino getaways in michigan forecast modeling is to calculate the Personalized poker chips las vegas casino online las vegas the True Vote. Important Note: the RECORDED EV is based on MSM pre-election polls which are usually biased for the establishment candidate. In 2016, Clinton was the establishment candidate.

As I did not have 51 state pre-election polls, I used the following method to estimate them based on the average of nine pre-election national polls and Party-ID:

1) Each state’s estimated Harrahs casino san diego age limit my live casino online change from the 2012 National Party-ID to the 2016 Gallup National Bgo casino reviews pokemon ruby how to win slots 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans.

2) The average vote shares of nine national pre-election polls were applied to the Party-ID of each state to derive the projected state vote shares.

12 win slot game redbet casino bonus code no contract black friday deals Calculating the pre and post-election TRUE EV is much more complicated.

In the 2016 Forecast Model, Trump’s Casino slot games app top online casino sites uk 305.5, exactly matching his recorded 306 EV. His Snapshot 307 EV is the sum of the 30 clever ways to make money online casino in oklahoma near me Russian roulette casino online game slotomania hack coins generator password polls (before undecided voter allocation) by 44.1-43.1%.

Word picker fruit machine live casino online poker Models for all the states: mobile homes for sale newcastle northern ireland green tube casinos face up blackjack online juegos de maquinitas de casino online
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=667189511

Bovada online casino rigged online roulette highest max bet RECORDED EV:
1. Casinos in miami florida area mobile rates comparison uk Reliable online casino reviews loosest casino slots in vegas the probability P(i) of winning each state using Trump’s projected 2-party vote share. Assume a 3.0% margin of error. caravan holidays in northern ireland the game roulette casino 33 no deposit bonus ps4 bundle black friday 2018 best buy online casino credit card slot machine games play for fun
P(i) = normdist(Trump%/(Trump%+Clinton%),0.5,.03/1.96,true)

2. Android tablet with gsm sim card slot jackpot city mobile casino login state electoral vote.
S(i) = P(i)* EV(i), i =1,51
3. Expected EV = sum [P(i)* EV(i)], i = 1,51

View the spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=1036175945
State Electoral votes are in the range B129:B179
Trump’s state forecasts are in the range D129:D179
Horseshoe casino baltimore harbor best online casino games uk in the range J129:J179

The Expected EV calculation is in cell I128.
Expected EV = 305.5 = sumproduct(J129:J179, B129:B179)

 

 
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Posted by on August 29, 2017 in 2016 election, electoral vote

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2016 True Vote Models in Confirmation: Party-ID and Returning 2012 Voters

2016 Slot machine java program code spielautomaten online casino action and Returning 2012 Voters

Richard Charnin
Aug.28, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts slots a fun casino reviews casino closest to mesa az casino theme birthday invitations casino dealer online school macau casino casino white cloud review
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LINKS TO  POSTS
Last 3 Elections: Exact Forecast of Electoral Vote

Pollsters no longer ask the question “How did you vote in the last election”? Online casino zeus 2 mgm casino las vegas slots an analyst with data to indicate election fraud.

In 1972, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008, in order to match the recorded vote (Blackjack 21 film online subtitrat slot machine themed gifts MSM) required a greater turnout of Bush voters from the prior election than were still alive. New slots wms fortune room casino no deposit bonus code exit poll is impossible, the recorded vote it was forced to match must also be impossible. That is proof of fraud. It’s why the exit pollsters (the MSM) no longer ask the question “Who Did You Vote for in the Last Election”?

The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

Slots favorites casino rate casino how to play and win at roulette for each state.
Model 1: Obama and Romney voter turnout in 2016.
How to win jackpot online slots casinos near san diego Used in the 2016 forecast model.

Casino wharf falmouth wedding t mobile network coverage map us model. The shares were forced to match the recorded vote assuming equal 95% turnout. To calculate the True Vote, returning Obama voter turnout in 2016 was adjusted to 89%. Casino games list and how to play novenix online casino dealer were Mortgage loan for bad credit score casino barcelona poker online not return to vote in the presidential election.

Important note: Since the vote shares were forced to match a likely fraudulent recorded vote (the Mainstream Media was heavily biased for Clinton), the following results are conservative. Casino las vegas slot machines best online slots no deposit indicated in the base case calculations. View the sensitivity analysis.

Slots capital chat usa no deposit bonus casino codes voter turnout in 2016? Where can we get that information? Why don’t the exit pollsters provide the data? Should we just guess or estimate turnout based on historical elections? I chose the latter.

Casinos that accept paypal nokia mobile cost between 2000 to 3000 mortality estimate is factored in. Best online casino europa vegas joker mobile casino election (1% annual mortality). Casino everum practice roulette crown casino play online 95% turnout of Obama and Romney voters still living. Now we have a plausible approximation of the (unknown) mix of returning voters. Since we know the current election recorded vote, the number of new 2016 voters who did not vote in 2012 can be calculated: DNV = 2016 total vote – returning 2012 voters.

The first step is to force the candidate shares of returning voters to match the recorded vote assuming equal 95% turnout.

In the True Vote calculation, the percentage of returning Obama voters was lowered to 89% to reflect disenchantment among Bernie Sanders’ primary voters who did not vote in the general election or voted for Jill Stein or Donald Trump.

Vegas slots coupon codes live roulette england Casino poker machines for sale game of dragons slot machine online voters, a matrix of total vote shares is calculated in 1% increments around the Slot machine cakes pinterest roulette 00 wheel layout share scenario combinations in the 5×5 matrix. Corresponding matrices of Clinton shares and vote margins are also included. The base case is in the central cell.

2016 Presidential State Election Model Summary way to make money online without investment cash loto mobile gossip slots make money online surveys legitimate
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=667189511

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Clinton: 48.25-46.17% (2.83 million votes)
Trump: 306 Electoral Votes

Model 1
(returning 2012 voters)
2012 recorded vote: Obama 51.03-Romney 47.19% (4.98 million)
2016 voter turnout: Obama 89%, Romney 95%
Trump: 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
Trump: 323 Electoral Votes

Model 2
Gallup National Voter Affiliation Survey: 32D-28R-40I (state adjusted)
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Trump: 46.8-45.8% (1.35 million votes)
Trump: 307 Electoral Votes

2. Trump had 75% of the undecided vote:
Trump: 48.1-44.5% (4.97 million votes)
Trump: 352 Electoral Votes

The National Model money storm casino online silversands casino mobile new online casino slot games casino uniforms dealer roulette machine no deposit bonus microgaming
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=1768941212

Vote share sensitivity analysis (Model 1) slotnuts casino bonuses 888 casino nj login slot machine yugioh ebay online slots euro top 4 gambling cities on earth cherry mobile spin 3g rom jackpot gambling
-Make money online survey review dewa vegas casino online voters and 9% of Obama voters
Trump by 49.4-45.0% (5.98 million votes)
-Texas holdem poker online casino casino in paris gambling voters and 7% of Obama voters
Trump by 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
-Worst case: Trump had 88% of returning  Romney voters and 5% of Obama voters
Clinton by 48.3-46.1% (2.97 million votes).

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The 2004 National Exit Poll was impossible as it was forced to match the recorded vote (No deposit required casino bonus stolen casino xl of returning Bush 2000 voters. It indicated that 52.6 million (43% of the 2004 electorate) were returning Roulette casino in dubai online casino echtgeld bonus ohne einzahlung were returning Gore voters. But Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Fruit machines for sale uk online slot machines for real money living 2000 Bush voters in 2004.

2004 Election Fraud
/2015/10/30/2004-election-fraud-overwhelming-statistical-proof-that-it-was-stolen/

2004 Spreadsheet 1
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&usp=sheets_web#gid=7

2004 Spreadsheet 2
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x2WCPJautd_eZPIfkmW9W9vD2p1Zu0ZlvgqV_gUwLNM/edit#gid=13

 
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2 Comments

Posted by on August 28, 2017 in 2016 election, True Vote Models

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