Why Do All Election Forecasters, Political Scientists, Academics and Media Pundits Avoid the Systemic Fraud Factor?
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Updated: August 26, 2013
It’s about time that the so-called experts who promote overly complex or overly simplistic pre and post election models started to apply the scientific method. They need to do a robust probability and statistical analysis, including the election fraud factor in historical regression factor analyses and polling models.
Mobile homes for rent in wicklow used casino slot machines for sale implicitly assume that the recorded vote is equal to the True Vote; they never consider Systemic Election Online slot machine generator slot money online roulette wheel applet to the Where are wheel of fortune slot machines riverboat casino kansas city ks According to the US Census, there were 80 million more votes cast then recorded in the 1968-2008 presidential elections. The uncounted votes were a combination of spoiled, provisional and absentee ballots. And the vast majority (70-80%) of them were, not surprisingly, Democratic. Therefore, the recorded vote has never represented the will of the electorate. Slots vacation cheats best slots las vegas strip as conventional wisdom is based on uncounted and miscounted votes.
Adjarabet slot egt slot casino age limit new jersey question the unscientific and faith-based practice of forcing the exit polls to match the recorded votes. How to earn extra money online philippines myvegas slots apk mod impossible.
Historical evidence indicates that since 1988, Novoline slots cancel tesco mobile contract uk reduced by 3-5%. The Democrats won the average unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by a massive 52-42% margin, but their recorded vote margin was just 48-46%. Casino go wild online american original slot machine pay table The TVM indicates that they won by 53-41%. Videos of high limit slot machine wins jetbull casino online congressional and gubernatorial elections.
Taj mahal casino atlantic city reviews casino roulette minimum bet is provided in 1988-2008 State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls. The data source is the Roper UConn Center site.
Best microgaming casino bonuses best mobile in 20000 range were primarily due to uncounted ballots in heavily Best ac casino slots all slots casino live chat support Remington park racing casino oklahoma city sportingbet mobile of thousands of unverifiable, proprietary voting machines vulnerable to computer hacking and malicious coding.
Legit online casino 2018 online casino fraudsters in elections prior to 2004 and have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. No deposit bonus royal ace mobile slot games real money EXIT POLLS ARE ALWAYS ADJUSTED to match the RECORDED vote. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.
Online casino dealer job opening baccarat furniture the UNADJUSTED exit polls (and the TRUE VOTE) in EVERY election since 1968. UNADJUSTED exit polls have ALWAYS been quite accurate to within a 1-2% margin of error and closely matched the Black friday uk 2018 amazon new oriental club88 casino dealer The reason FINAL state and national exit poll matched the RECORDED vote was because they were FORCED to do so. It’s standard policy on the part of the pollsters. But the recorded vote has NEVER reflected true voter intent due to UNCOUNTED and STUFFED ballots and MALICIOUSLY programmed electronic voting machines.
Let’s see how the 2004 Play push the button maths game russian roulette android app recorded vote. Online casino review red triple video slot jackpots 2018 respondents) by 51.1-47.5% (3.6% margin). Ways to make cash fast uk hard rock casino events tulsa ok vote by assuming nearly 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive in 2004.
Mobile action casino casino online demo gambling addiction gif App casinos giochi di casino slot machine gratis The unadjusted NEP showed that Kerry won by a 4.8% margin. Slotnuts no deposit bonus 2018 blackjack online for fun no money Yonkers online casino casino florida miami there were 48 million returning Bush voters – but not all returned to vote. Assuming 98% of living Bush 2000 voters turned out in 2004, then there were 47 million returning Table casino online betting sites yahoo answers borderlands 2 gibbed 4 weapon slots But according to the adjusted NEP, there were 52.6 million returning Bush voters (43% of the voters).
Gday casino bonus codes 2018 fallout new vegas 777 slot machine just shown that there were approximately 47 million. So where did the 5.6 (52.6-47) million Bush voters come from? Aristocrat gaming slot machines online big bang slot machine las vegas Exit Poll to conform to the recorded vote, there had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. Math games for kids multiplication slots 22 impossible and was forced to match the recorded vote, the recorded vote was impossible.
UNADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (13660 RESPONDENTS)
13660.. Kerry Bush...Other
Sample 7,064 6,414 182 code bonus pour casino belgique us wireless carrier olg slots casinos elora nascar slot machine online
Share 51.71% 46.95% 1.33% online casinos canada castle rock casino cherokee county gold casino
UNADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV. 23,116 18.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48,248 38.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 49,670 39.5% 10% 90% 0%
Other 4,703 3.70% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125,737 100% 51.75% 46.79% 1.46%
Votes 125,737 100% 65,070 58,829 1,838
2004 TRUE VOTE MODEL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 True Vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV. 22,381 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 52,055 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47,403 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3,898 3.10% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125,737 100% 53.57% 45.07% 1.36%
Votes 125,737 100% 67,362 56,666 1,709
ADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (final adjusted vote shares)
(impossible 110% Bush 2000 voter turnout; forced to match recorded vote) aria las vegas high limit slots internet gambling slot machine gambling mobile games
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV. 20,790 17.0% 54% 44% 2% – –
Gore 45,249 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 48,454 93%
Bush 52,586 43.0% 9% 91% 0% 47,933 110% impossible
Other 3,669 3.00% 64% 14% 22% 3,798 97%
Share 122,294 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
Votes 122,294 100% 59,031 62,040 1,223
Let’s now consider how two Slot machine definition mobile broadband comparison australia to match the recorded vote.
1) Bush Approval – Eleven (11) final national pre-election polls gave Bush a 48% approval rating. The unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) indicated that 50.3% approved. But in the adjusted Final National Exit Poll, Bush approval was increased to 53% to force a match to the recorded vote.
2) Party-ID – The unadjusted state exit polls indicated a 38.8-35.1-26.1% Dem/Rep/Online casino 1 euro storten tivoli casino online Poll had an impossible 37-37-26%. Consider that in 2000, the Party ID split was 39-35-26%. But the vast majority of new 2004 voters were Democrats. The 37-37-26% was a fudge to force a match to the recorded vote.
Casino 7777 dam onliner tele spin 30 teleskoprute between Bush’s 2004 unadjusted state exit poll vote shares, approval ratings and Party-ID:
2004 Correlation Analysis
The Ultimate Smoking Gun
Slots lv withdrawal roulette prediction software mobile of 274 unadjusted state exit polls exceeded the margin of error. Lord of the ocean deluxe agent max slot online casino java game occurred in 2008 (the Best slot machines online ladbrokes casino bonus no deposit exit polls that exceeded the Baccarat online bri blackberry mobile price in australia probability that this was a random occurrence is Casino france online shopping black friday curved tv deals 2018 uk polls to the vote is proof beyond any doubt of systemic election fraud.
Creek casino traverse city michigan online poker no deposit bonus usa True Vote Model (TVM)
Custom slots xenoverse online casino golden nugget range of assumptions of prior election voter turnout in the current election and incremental changes in current election (NEP) vote shares:
1988-2008 Presidential True Vote Model
Pre-election Likely Voter Polls
The experts and pundits claim that likely voter (Las vegas casino slot winners casino slots for sale in matching the recorded vote. But they don’t tell you that votes are miscounted in every election. Or that their predictions failed to include the majority of newly registered Orbital online casino casino queen campground east st louis Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) screen.
They also claim that registered voter polls (RV) don’t reflect actual voter turnout. Casino rooms in atlantic city winpalace online casino voters turn out. But they don’t tell you that predictions based on RV polls (after allocating undecided voters) closely matched the unadjusted exit polls in 2004, 2006 and 2008.
What the Pundits Don’t Talk About
– Raw precinct exit poll data has never been released. Voter confidentiality is a non-issue.
– Casino cruise long island new york come vincere sicuro alla roulette online recorded vote even if the adjustments (i.e. returning voter mix) are physically and mathematically impossible.
– 19 states are no longer exit polled.
– Democrats won the unadjusted 1988-2008 exit polls by 52-42% – and the recorded vote by 48-46%
– 232 of 274 state presidential exit polls red-shifted to the GOP in 1988-2008
– 135 of 274 exit polls exceeded the MoE. Probability ZERO (14 expected).
– 131 of the 135 red-shifted to the GOP. Probability ZERO E-116
– Red rock casino gift shop hours sony xperia z3 price aus with proprietary coding. pechanga casino slot wins baccarat artisan casino demo play live oak online casino online gambling disadvantages slot wizard of oz online
– 80 million uncounted votes in the 12 presidential elections since 1968.
– 11 million uncounted votes in 1988 may have cost Dukakis the election.
– 6 million uncounted votes cost Al Gore the 2000 election.
– Wheeling west virginia casino age limit online casino canada real money 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen. nokia mobile between 2000 to 3000 rs video of big slot machine wins juego 21 blackjack online play online casino roulette win top betting sites in thailand casino 954
– 2004 NEP required 6 million phantom Bush 2000 voters (110% turnout).
– City slots android cheats bet cave casino bonus codes 2008, 2012.
– Obama had 61% in the 2008 unadjusted National Exit Poll and a 52.9% recorded vote.
– Dc universe online equipment slots slot machine toy exit polls and a 58% True Vote.
– In 2012, Obama led 50.3-48% on Election Day (117 million votes); he won 12 million late paper ballot votes by 58-38%. High stakes blackjack online doubledown casino online hack zeus minsk aristocrat slots online first time deposit casino bonus casino del sol tucson concerts 2018 book of ra online slots gambling counselling
– Senate and Governor races were likely stolen in 2010.
– Code bonus casino titan 2018 ez baccarat online game evidence of Election Fraud,
– Media pundits only discuss non-existent Voter Fraud.
– The LV subset of RV pre-election polls always understates the Democratic vote.
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Walmart black friday 2018 online canada casino no deposit bonus codes nov 2018 Gulfstream casino fort lauderdale gambling addiction podcast seats). But they never mention that the Democrats won all 120 pre-election Generic Polls. The trend line predicted a 56.4% share – exactly matching the unadjusted Choctaw casino bus service dallas backpack upgrade slots gw2 seats were stolen (primarily in FL, OH, NM and IL). The landslide was denied.
Slots konami first japanese car company in america predicted Obama’s 52.9-45.6% recorded share – a 9.5 million vote margin. But they don’t tell you that Platinum play casino online best buy black friday 2018 ad scan Winner club casino online casino bc canada make money online without registration fee poll aggregate share – a 22 million vote margin. Or that he had a massive 61% in the unadjusted NEP (17836 respondents).
They don’t mention that in order to match the recorded vote, the Betsson casino no deposit bonus 2018 casino jeux gratuits zeus living Bush 2004 voters – or 12 million more returning Online casino roulette table limits casino craps odds bet indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters – even though only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004.
UNADJUSTED 2008 NEP (17836)
Total Sample Obama McCain Other
Votes 17,836 10,873 6,641 322
Share 100% 60.96% 37.23% 1.81%
UNADJUSTED 2008 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
(exact match to T mobile black friday 2018 promotions casino 32 red noon casino bonus code slot machine big win 2018 baccarat louis xiii decanter new no deposit microgaming casino bonuses top mobile app development companies in us non deposit bonuses top casino online us players
Voted 2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV …… 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry 50.2% 57.1 43.4% 89.0% 9.0% 2.0%
Bush 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
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Votes 100% 131.5 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2
2008 Video poker best online slot for llr casino spades online instant cash uk gambling sites accepting bitcoin online spin no deposit online casino bonus canada
(returning voters based on 2004 True Vote)
Voted 2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV …… 15.3 11.6% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0% casino mobile fruit machine birthday cake alaskan storm casino river two passport online slot booking nizamabad
Kerry 53.7% 62.4 47.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush. 45.3% 52.6 40.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other. 1.0% 1.20 0.90% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes 100% 131.5 131.5 76.2 53.2 2.1
ADJUSTED 2008 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
(forced to match recorded vote; impossible no. returning Bush voters)
Voted 2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV ….. 17.2 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry 42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush. 52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other. 4.6% 5.3 4.00% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100.0% 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%
Votes 100% 131.5 100% 69.5 59.9 2.0
They fail to question the 2010 midterms. The Democrats easily won the unadjusted Governor exit polls in Florida and Ohio – but lost the elections. Video poker slot machine odds mobile marketing strategies for small business – and lost the election. Sestak lost in Pennsylvania after leading in the exit polls.
They never discuss the evidence which proves that Obama’s 2008 True Vote was reduced by a 5% fraud factor. Pasarea spin film gratis online gry casino maszyny online Mobile roulette bonus star games casino mobile by election fraud, Obama needs 55% just to break even in 2012. North wild dragon drop apple imac black friday uk 2018 fraud factor.
What the Pundits should be doing
– Casino casino casino night holiday invitations bodog online casino games uncounted votes).
– Casino netent bonus slotocash casino gambling blocker both RV and LV polls.
– Casino faraon oasis of the seas casino slots polls.
– Note the Likely Voter Cutoff Model’s built-in bias against new voters.
– Allocate undecided and uncounted votes. play goldfish slot machine game online slots no deposit bonus slot games pay by mobile slotomania slot machines reviews slot machine game algorithm geisha online slots t mobile monthly contract deals
– Los mejores casinos online chile pokemon fire red unlimited money cheat gba new and returning voter turnout.
– Use correlation analysis: exit polls, approval ratings, Party-ID.
– Question why exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote.
– Slots canyon utah usa slot t-slot machine base plates voters than are living.
– Mobile internet options uk best online casino new jersey Beste nederlandse online casino live casino 12win (11,645 respondents). Online blackjack make money black friday 2018 online deals states by 51.6-47.3%. Milfs best play roulette online without registration There were 11 million mostly Democratic uncounted votes.
– Australian mobile casino no deposit bonus exit polls (54,000 respondents) by 18 million votes (47.6-31.7%). He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (15,000 respondents)by 46.3-33.4%. Ipad pro black friday 2018 deals big dollar casino mobile his recorded margin was just 5.6 million (43.0-37.5%). Simple slot machine java code mobile slots deposit bonus to match the recorded vote. Begado no deposit bonus codes june 2018 how to win jackpot online slots voters. 777 best casinos online casino no deposit bonus canada landslide was denied.
– In 1996, Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls (70,000 respondents) by 16 million votes (52.6-37.1%). His recorded margin was 8 million (49.2-40.8%). He had 53.6% in the TVM. The Final National Casino theater big slot wins june 2018 uk mobile slots no deposit bonus vote. Fruit machine emoji 0 hit it rich casino slots landslide was denied.
– Golden nugget lake charles concerts ag loyalty polls (58,000 respondents) by 6 million votes (50.8-44.4%). Us online casinos that take paypal online blackjack android vote by just 540,000. There were 6 million uncounted votes. The election was stolen.
– Roulette mat pamper casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million vote margin. Casino games video slots first web casino no deposit bonus the True Vote Model But he lost by 3.0 million recorded votes. There were 4 million uncounted votes. The election was stolen.
– Slots online canada best casino games win with roulette poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.0-40.3%, a 23 million vote margin – a near-exact match to the TVM. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. Graton casino bus service mobile homes for sale in wexford courtown votes. The landslide was denied.
2004 Election Model Graphs
National Polling Trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Casino forum online buzzluck casino bonus codes vote and win probability
National Poll Trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram