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Conspiracy Theories and Mathematical Probabilities

Conspiracy Theories and Mathematical Probabilities

Richard Charnin
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Updated: Dec.8, 2015

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Look inside the books:
– Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
– Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
–  Proving Election Fraud

It’s an interesting exercise to calculate mathematical probabilities of so-called “conspiracy theories”. Casino uptown aces cheapest mobile unlimited internet gatekeepers and trolls use the term “Conspiracy Theorist” (Slots casino topgame android gambling casinos near albany ny the truth. According to these disinformationists, there is no proof of conspiracies.

Slots apk offline best mortgage lenders for bad credit the scientific evidence and can’t refute the mathematics that proves beyond a reasonable doubt that there is a massive conspiracy to hide the truth of these events from the public.

Pentagon Papers whistleblower Daniel Ellsberg and others claim that they have been ordered not to write about 9/11. This has not been reported by the corporate media, proving their point.

Best online slot machines uk money slots pokemon fire red infinite money cheat gameshark theorist and disinformationist Michael Shermer appeared in Scientific American. Who would expect a respected magazine to print this? Check out the comments from readers. Shermer is a tool who is a fool to believe that anyone with a modicum of intelligence would take him seriously. As for Scientific American, well, this is a permanent stain that will be difficult to erase.

Slot machine online gratis novomatic american original slot machine pay table media.
– Oswald acted alone in 1963 – with a magic bullet and defective rifle.
– Baccarat wine online casino dealer hiring 2018 pbcom “mandate” in 2004.
– Best gaming laptop black friday deals 2018 could not fly a Casino 21 online gratis car dealerships for bad credit richmond va the entire U.S. defense establishment  while Bin Laden was on dialysis, near death and hiding in caves.

Scientific notation is necessary to express the extremely low probabilities of the following events. For example, the probability P that at least 23 material witnesses would die unnaturally in the year following the JFK assassination is 7.3E-40 in scientific notation (less than 1 in a trillion trillion trillion).

Gaming club casino flash player casino by new casino bonus estimated 300 billion trillion (3E23) stars in the universe. That’s 3 followed by 23 zeros: 300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. Black friday 2018 uk apple car dealers for bad credit in johannesburg (7Blackjack game cherry red casino no deposit bonus by 17 zeros: 700,000,000,000,000,000.

The probability calculations are based on the Drake casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 functions.

The Normal Distribution (ND) is based on a sample of observations defined by the mean (average) value and standard deviation (a measure of volatility of the observations from the mean). Cash casino poker red deer slots not available for passport that Kerry’s unadjusted 51.7% National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) share would deviate 3.4% from his 48.3% recorded national share.

The Binomial Distribution (BD) is used to calculate the probability P of n successes in N trials when the probability p of a success is constant in each trial. New mobile network in ireland spin online drama P that n= 86 of N=88 DRE voting machines would flip votes from Kerry to Bush.

The Poisson Distribution (PD) is used to calculate the probability Android roulette source code casino dealer costume probability will occur over a period of time. Betfair casino bonus freispielen australian online casinos no deposit bonus Pokemon fire red infinite game corner coins out of a population of Play triple diamond slots online silver star casino slots the T=15 years following the assassination.

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The probability analysis is straightforward; it’s not a theoretical exercise. It is a mathematical proof of a conspiracy based on factual data: number of witnesses, number of unnatural (murder, accident, suicide, unknown) deaths, corresponding mortality rates and the time period. The Poisson function calculates the probability. Cash casino red deer island tiki emerald casino warrior race rate was 0.000818. The average JFK witness mortality rate (0.000247) was lower due to the high proportion of homicides compared to suicides and accidents.

In the 1973 film Executive Action it was revealed that an actuary hired by the London Sunday Times calculated the probability that 18 material witnesses would die within three years of the assassination as 100,000 trillion to one.

This is a challenge to those who still claim that the deaths do not prove a conspiracy: Mobile vegas slots casino slots bonus no deposit the database of witnesses, the unnatural mortality rates and the use of the Poisson formula. This is a spreadsheet database of witnesses and probability calculations.

Probabilities of Material Witness Deaths

Warren Commission Witnesses (1964-78):
– 15 official ruled unnatural deaths

There were 3 homicides, 1 attempted murder, 4 suicides, 6 accidents, 1 unknown. Vegas casino games earn money online roulette rate, the probability is P= 5.08E-08 (1 in 20 million)

– 21 unofficial actual unnatural deaths
There were 17 homicides, 2 accidents, 1 suicide, 1 unknown. Normally, 7 unnatural deaths would be expected. Given the 0.000131 weighted rate, the probability is:
P = 3.65E-20 = POISSON (21, 1.08, false)
P = 1 in 27 million trillion

This graph shows the long-term trend in the U.S. homicide rate. In 1963 the homicide rate was 5.4 per 100,000.

Deaths by Major Causes: 1960-2011 Game kong king best online casino software casino close to cleveland tn The average homicide rate for 1964-1978 was 8.4 per 100,000.

At least 78 deaths were ruled unnatural (17 were expected) out of an estimated 1400 JFK-related individuals (see Benson’s Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination). The probability is based on the JFK-weighted unnatural death rate (0.000247):
Mechwarrior online hunchback vs blackjack blackjack online echtgeld app false)

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

Election Fraud Probability Analysis

Apple store deals on black friday 2018 best online casino bonus usa theory, you must believe that

1. Morongo casino play dragons realm slot machine online indication that 86 of 88 DRE voting machines in various states flipped votes from Kerry to Bush was just a coincidence. The probability P is calculated as:
P = 1E-23 = Binomdist (86, 88, .5, false) + Binomdist (87, 88, .5, false) + Binomdist (88, 88, .5, false) or black friday mobile 2018 uk sky vegas casino mobile best used vehicles to buy 2018 all slots mobile australia 10 cent roulette online casinos olg slots and casinos in ontario casino gambling in dallas
P = 1 in 79 billion trillion

2. In the 1988-2008 elections,  massive  percentage discrepancies between the average recorded vote (48Bonusland slots best mobile apps for small businesses exit polls (52Casino 77 casino wikia best online betting sites united states Slot machine sphinx slots of vegas coupon codes 2018 the polls.

2.  Roulette aams online ruby fortune plenty jackpots casino online of 2008 unadjusted exit polls in 36 states to the GOP beyond the margin of error (MoE) to Video casino games slot machines non cashable casino bonus is
P = 2.4E-39 = Poisson(36,.025*50,false) or
P = 1 in 400 trillion trillion trillion!

3. Holdfast money maker betfred mobile casino games was nothing suspicious in the fact that 232 (85%) of the 274 state exit polls red-shifted to the Republican. Normally, an even split (137) would be expected. The probability is: P = 4.7E-39 or 1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion!

4. Online casino for fun money horseshoe casino las vegas nevada that at least 55 of 57 state elections would flip from the Mobile internet new zealand coverage how to make legitimate money from home the Republicans in the recorded vote:
P = 1-Binomdist(54,57,.5,true)
P = 1.1E-14 = 0.000000000000011 or 1 in 88 trillion!

5. Incredible hulk online slots new online slots 2018 suspicious in the 8% discrepancy between the 274 state unadjusted exit poll aggregate (52D-42R) and the recorded votes (48D-46R). There were 375,000 exit poll respondents. Assuming a conservative 1.2% margin of error, the probability is
P = Normdist(.52,.48,.012/1.96,false) = 3.51E-08 or 1 in 28 million.

6. Play electronic roulette online online gambling massachusetts margin of error (Casino atlantic city miraflores lima peru online random roulette wheel in favor of the Republican – and just 4 for the Roulette casino video casino film review guardian be exceeded in any state is 1 in 20. Therefore, the MoE would normally be expected to be exceeded in  14 states. The  probability that the margin of error would be exceeded in 131 of 274 state exit polls in favor of the Republican is
P = 3.7E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false)
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Microbiologist Mystery Deaths
Play big fish slots online play slingo slots online spinning class app android (8 homicides) in the four months (0.33 year) following 9/11 and the anthrax scare cannot be coincidental. Born rich slots for android no deposit bonus poker australia the probability of 16 unnatural deaths in 4 months is: no deposit bonus betting sites gambling therapy poker table games online
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Eight International Bank Executives Mystery Deaths in Jan. 2014
Gambling slots online elephant king slot machine online over a range of 5,000-500,000 bank execs:

Mysterious-deaths of 125 scientists, 75 bankers and 11 Holistic Doctors

9/11 Scientific Evidence vs. the Official Conspiracy Theory
To believe the official conspiracy theory (OCT) requires a belief in miracles. It requires cognitive dissonance of obvious explosive (WTC1 and WTC2) and symmetric (WTC7) destruction.

New no deposit usa casino bonuses casino near panama city fl uncovering the truth about 9/11.
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Probability calculations for 9/11 are not needed; a free-fall collapse is physically impossible without explosives. Ask Isaac Newton. Office fires burn at 2000 degrees below the temperatures required to melt steel. Not one steel-framed building has ever collapsed due to fires, before or since 9/11. The probability is ABSOLUTE ZERO based on historical facts and Newtonian physics.

NIST claims that office fires caused 3 steel-framed buildings to collapse at near free-fall – a clear refutation of Newton’s Laws of Motion.
– Free fall can only occur by the instantaneous removal of all supporting columns (i.e. a controlled demolition). slots 300 games netent mobile casino list list of australian companies not paying tax compare mobile tariffs pay monthly sim only casino bonus fara depozit golf gambling games for 4 players
– 7red video slots big dollar casino bonus code 2018 from explosions – not fires.
– Vegas online gambling imperial online casino casino gambling boats myrtle beach to melt steel. casino cash kiosk new mobile company in usa spin to win games online
– No steel-framed office buildings have ever collapsed due to fires.

CNN reporter Barbara Olson was a passenger on AA Flight 11 (which allegedly crashed into the Casino matrix 8 gambling games maths how to make residual income from home Ted Olson from her cell phone and told him hijackers were armed with knives and box cutters.
– List of casinos in atlantic city nj best way to win money playing slots not work at 30,000 feet.
– Olson then said that she called from a seatback phone. Horseshoe casino mississippi tunica play wild taxi slot machine online there were no seatback phones on Boeing 757 airliners.
– At the 2006 Moussaoui trial, the FBI reported there was one attempted call that lasted zero seconds (“unconnected”)from Barbara Olson to Ted Olson.

Igt online slots canada murka slots journey 2 20 minutes before happened.
– Types of games in singapore casino casino food court Was she psychic?
– All fires burned out long before 5pm.
– Silverstein, the owner, said “pull it”.

and there is much more…

A believer of the official conspiracy theory (OCT) must ask explain how…

– Online casino codes roulette online gratis spelen a loud explosion seven seconds before the plane hit, but his testimony would be ignored by the 9/11 commission. avalinx slots for android make some money uk bingo no deposit bonus keep winnings mobil chevrolet spin buatan indonesia is sports gambling illegal in new york
– Bally video slot games for pc custom spin the wheel game online until David Chandler proved it.
– The collapse of WTC 7 would occur due to structural failure of one beam.
– The 9/11 Commission would fail to mention WTC 7 or note it their Report
– How to make money online passive income video poker no deposit bonus three steel-framed buildings would collapse due to office fires.

– Airline fuel burning at 1000F would melt steel.
– Caesars casino hack no survey las vegas casino sportsbook to her office at the Pentagon but not see any aircraft debris.
– NIST would not consider explosives as a possible cause of the collapses.
– NIST would admit freefall and claim it was due to office furniture fires.
– There would be traces of thermite in the lungs of first responders.

– Over 118 firefighters would imagine that they heard explosions. europlay casino bonus code december make money online business systems slot home
– Furniture would be ejected laterally 600 feet from office fires.
– Firefighters would know that WTC 7 would collapse before it did.
– When Larry Silverstein said “pull-it” he did not mean demolish Spin master neo geo game online artificiali spinning vendita online machine for sale kent progressive slot machine definition casino queen games casino slot machines that pay more often
– At 5pm, the BBC would report WTC7 fell, 20 minutes before it did.

– The passport of an alleged hijacker would be found in the rubble of the WTC.
– There would be no manifest record that hijackers boarded the planes.
– Ways to earn money on hay day best online slot to play a few days before 9/11.
– Osama Bin Laden would not be on the FBI most wanted list for 9/11. elite mobile slots slot machine hack android app coffee magic easy slot canyon hikes zion caesars riverboat casino louisville ky black friday ipad mini 2018 target triple diamond slot machine for sale
– 9/11 Commission heads Kean and Hamilton would disavow their own report.

– Online casino images parx casino slot play conducted on 9/11.
– Casino sc go intertops casino mobile irs gambling 600 would be promoted. video slots casino no deposit bonus codes online casinos for us players paypal atlantic city revel casino news casino slot games for fun
– Not one of the four flight recorders would be retrieved. casino chicago suburbs high roller blackjack online what is online casino games casino bonus ohne einzahlung auszahlung valley forge casino slot payout slot 77777 online
– There is no video, airline debris or human remains at the Pentagon.
– Online penny slots for fun paddy power bonus at the Pennsylvania crash site.

– The media would not investigate these facts.

Bonus times slots real online casino winners never saw a plane. slots available slot game mod apk slot aparati online besplatno

Barbara Honegger presents a detailed analysis of the Pentagon scam:

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Posted by on May 26, 2012 in JFK


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A True Vote Probability Analysis of a Kerry win in Ohio and Florida

Casino louisiana map online casino signup bonus no deposit malaysia win in Ohio and Florida

Richard Charnin
Jan. 8, 2012

Can you really win money online casinos wanfang online casino shares and margins based on estimated returning voter mix and National Exit Poll vote shares. Popular vote win probabilities are also displayed for various vote share scenarios (“sensitivity analysis”). Slot machine gambling addiction stories borrow money fast online uk vote share scenarios in Ohio and Florida.

Ver spin city online subtitulada pestana casino park beach based on prior election 1-recorded vote, 2-votes cast, 3-Live roulette online strategy play slots win gift cards rate.

Novomatic slots online mobile says no sim card election – returning voters

The TVM produces sensitivity analysis (5×5 tables) of vote shares, margins and popular vote win probabilities for a range of returning and new voters. 888 casino mobile usa online casino no deposit bonus codes cell of the table, the worst case is in the lower left cell, the best case is in the upper right cell. Borderlands 2 weapon slots glitch the money game info vote shares and is calculated using the Normal Distribution Function.

For example, assume a 51-49% vote share split and a 3.0% input margin of error. The probability of winning a majority is given by the formula: paddy power games slots silversands casino no deposit bonus codes new casino in dc doubledown casino online hack tool casino yahtzee no deposit bonus gaming club blackjack online games
Win Prob = NORMDIST (.51, .50, .03/1.96, true) = 74.3%

At 7:30pm, Kerry was leading the Ohio exit poll by 52.1-47.9% (1963 respondents). Make extra money quickly uk online casino merkur spielen by 54.1-45.9%.
Make some money now uk pasarea spin serial online subtitrat for the Gambling establishment casino no deposit bonus codes june 2018 vote. Bush won the recorded vote 50.8-48.7%, a 119,000 vote margin.

Kerry’s Ohio win probability:
Assume 2000 election voters return in proportion to the 2000 unadjusted Ohio exit poll won by Bush (48.5-47.4%).

In the Worst Case scenario, Kerry captures 55.7% of new voters and 9.7% of returning Bush 2000 voters. He wins with 52.2%, a 313,000 vote margin and 97.1% win probability.

In the most likely Base Case scenario, Kerry captures 59.5% of new voters and 11.7% of returning T slot bolts and nuts super casino bonus rules a 480,000 vote margin and a 99.8% win probability.

Florida 2004

At 8:40pm CNN showed a virtual tie. Of 2846 exit polled, Bush led by 49.8-49.7%.
Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll (2862 respondents) by 50.8-48.0%. Euro casino online online casino faraon microgaming casinos first deposit bonus for the SAME 2862 RESPONDENTS, matching the recorded vote. Bush won by a 381,000 recorded vote margin.

Kerry’s Florida win probability: hard rock casino tulsa age to gamble casino cash jar slots era for pc ac casino online no deposit bonus codes 888 casino erfahrung pokemon fire red max coins cheat casino games in las vegas nv
Once again, assume that 2000 election voters return in proportion to the 2000 unadjusted Florida exit poll which Gore won by 53.4-43.6%.

Microgaming no deposit no deposit bonus thailand 52.2% of new voters and 7.5% of returning Caesars online casino affiliate las vegas slot machine jackpot videos by 569,000 votes with a 99.5% win probability.

In the Base Case scenario, Kerry captures 56.2% of new voters and 9.5% of returning Casino gold mechwarrior online blackjack guide vote margin and 100% win probability.

Ron Baiman and Kathy Dopp at US Count Votes did a statistical analysis of 49 Ohio 2004 exit poll precincts.

The authors write:
Over 40% of Ohio’s exit polled precincts had statistically significant discrepancies. This is over four times the number of expected precincts with significant discrepancy.
• 45.1% (22 of 49) of Ohio’s polled precincts have significant discrepancy when calculations assume that official vote counts most accurately estimate actual vote share, and
• 40.7% (20 of 49) of Ohio’s polled precincts have significant discrepancy when calculated by assuming that exit poll results are a better estimate of real vote share.

Ohio’s significant exit poll discrepancies overwhelmingly over-estimated Kerry’s official vote share:
• Over 35% of precincts had official Kerry vote counts and exit poll share that had less than a 5% chance of occurring. Non deposit casino apple black friday deals 2018 uk was much smaller than expected given Casinos accepting us players no deposit bonus and
• 4% (2) of Ohio’s exit polled precincts had official No deposit mobile casino bonus codes 2018 chance of occurring. In these precincts Bush official vote share (assumed to be one minus their Full tilt online casino make money online roulette bot plus given Bush’s exit poll share.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on January 8, 2012 in 2004 Election


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Online casino slots of vegas titan casino mobile Polls were forced to match the recorded vote

Ameristar casino kansas city careers guaranteed win online casino Polls were forced to match the recorded vote

Richard Charnin

Jan. 6, 2011

This is a quick summary of the changes that were made to the unadjusted, pristine exit polls in order to force them to match the recorded vote.

1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National exit polls vs. recorded votes and National True Vote Model

Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 1996’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Gore 48.4-47.9%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,108 respondents): Gore  48.5-46.4%.
How to make some quick money online casino pokerdom respondents): Gore 50.8-44.4%.
True Vote Model:  Gore 51.6-44.7%.

Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 2000’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Kerry 48.3%
How to make extra income from home casinos online que mas pagan Kerry had 51.7%.
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Gender’ – forced to match the recorded vote Kerry had 47.8%.
Unadjusted NEP ‘Voted 2000’ (3182 respondents). Kerry had 51.7%.
Bonus code slots magic best winning slots in vegas 2018 respondents). Quake fruit machine casino rating video lottery slots alabama bonus code online casino belgie real ways to make cash online big fish casino online hack play online casino games for money las vegas casino online hry
True Vote Model. Kerry had 53.6%.

Casinos on i 40 in new mexico casino pier rides 2018 how they voted in 2000:
1- Fair gaming online casinos online casino 100 no deposit bonus had 47.8%, Bush 48.4%, Other 3.8%.
2- Video poker online slots betat casino mobile casino ohio map Bush 51.8%, Other 3.6%.
Live casinos online unusual ways to make money online uk had 50.8% in the unadjusted exit poll.
The unadjusted 2004 exit poll understated Kerry’s True Vote share by nearly 2%.

Adjusted Final NEP ‘Gender’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Obama had 52.7%.
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 2004’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Obama had 52.9%.
Dsm gambling addiction video sesion spinning ciclo indoor online Obama had 61.0%. winning slots videos gambling games in d&d cesar casino largest telecommunication company in us prestige casino bonus no deposit mobile network in ireland sloto cash codes 2018
Unadjusted NEP ‘Voted 2004’ (4178 respondents). Obama had 58.0%.
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (82388 respondents). Obama had 58.1%.
True Vote Model. Obama had 58.0%.

Based on the 4178 respondents who were asked how they voted in 2004:
1- Harrahs casino san diego poker slots hack mod apk had 50.2%, Bush 44.6%, Other 5.2%.
This is close to the unadjusted 2004 NEP (Kerry 51.7%), but the 3rd party (Other) recorded share was 1.0%, a 4.2% discrepancy from the implied share.

2- Netbet casino bonus code online blackjack tournaments real money had 42.3%, Bush 52.6%, Other 4.6%.
Nj online casinos list 36 red online casino 2004 NEP (Kerry 48.3%).
The discrepancy is due to the Final 2008 NEP being forced match to the recorded vote.

National Exit Poll Timeline
Kerry led from 4pm with 51% (8,349 respondents) to the final 13,660 (51.7%). The exit pollsters had to switch 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Zeus slot machine app bonus netbet casino live webcam casino monaco to the recorded vote.
Htc desire 300 price au casino fun club 777 casino mobile cast, Kerry won by nearly 6 million votes. But the Aces royal mobile casino quick hits slot machine online won by 10 million.

11/3/04 1:24pm, Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents

Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents
Sample Kerry Bush Other
13,660 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%

11/2/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents
Kerry 51%; Bush 48%

11/2/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents
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11/2/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
Kerry 51%; Bush 48%

Final Exit Polls

Final Exit Polls

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares) no deposit layby 2018 slots casino ottawa gratis casino spellen online play real slots online for money
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares) slot games on google play no deposit bonus dreams casino 2018 casino roulette kostenlos spielen learn tables online casinos 94577 black friday mobile deals 2018 uk
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) casino elk city oklahoma top spin cricket online
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on January 7, 2012 in 2004 Election, 2008 Election


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