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Golden nugget casino lake charles address imperial dragon slot machine online of Dealey Plaza Witnesses

JFK Probability Analysis: Suspicious Deaths of Dealey Plaza Witnesses

Richard Charnin
June 4, 2014
Updated: Oct. 30, 2017

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

The 1977 House Select Committee on Assassination (HSCA) claimed that the London Sunday Times actuary’s 1 in 100,000 trillion probability calculation that 18 material witnesses would die (13 unnaturally) in the three years following the assassination was invalid. Casino slots 7 casino games 300 internet casino cleveland ohio was unknown. But the HSCA did not consider Dealey Plaza witnesses or other knowable witness groups (Warren Commission, Garrison/Shaw trial, Church Senate hearings – and the HSCA itself).

It is an interesting exercise to calculate the probabilities of suspicious deaths of 28 Betway mobile casino review juegos de blackjack online gratis deaths, 14 were officially ruled unnatural (5 homicides, 7 accidents, 2 suicides).

Assuming there were 600 Dealey Plaza witnesses, the probability of 14 ruled unnatural deaths during the period 1963-1978 is 1 in 230 million. But the nine accidents and suicides were likely homicides.

Gambling problem quotes make money online fast reviews and 1000 witnesses:
400: 1 in 900 trillion
600: 1 in 4 trillion
1000: 1 in 5 billion

Cats slot machine igt online gambling nigeria the Warren Commission, 3 were sought to testify at the Garrison trial, 3 at the Church Senate hearings and 3 at the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA).

The probabilities of JFK witness deaths for various groups have been previously posted: Warren Commission, London Times actuary,Garrison/ Canadian online casinos that accept paypal slot online tanpa deposit JFK-related 1400+ witness reference “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”.

1 6311 Lee Harvey Oswald
2 6311 J.D. Tippit
3 6512 William Whaley
4 6606 Frank Martin caribbean casino yakima wa star trek slot machine las vegas
5 6608 Lee Bowers
6 6611 James Worrell
7 6701 Jack Ruby
8 6901 Charles Mentesana
9 6901 Buddy Walthers
10 7001 Merriman Smith slots strategies how much does 0 pay in roulette la riviera casino no deposit bonus betway casino bonus code union western usa casino gambling online games
11 7008 Bill Decker
12 7101 Mac Wallace
13 7109 Roscoe White
14 7109 Cliff Carter
15 7309 Thomas E. Davis
16 7402 J.A. Milteer
17 7501 Allen Sweatt
18 7502 Ira (Jack) Beers
19 7505 Roger Craig
20 7509 Earl Cabell
21 7604 James Chaney
22 7608 Johnny Roselli
23 7703 Charles Nicoletti
24 7707 Ken O’Donnell
25 7801 Clint “Lummie” Lewis used slot machines for sale uk mills slot machine parts funny slots casino roulette online via android best paying slots at winstar casino best wifi modem in south africa
26 7805 David Morales
27 7901 Billy Lovelady buzzluck casino mobile 888 casino hot bonus real slots casino online slots gratis online para jugar
28 8403 Roy Kellerman

Dealey Plaza witness deaths:

Quick JFK Witness death Calculator:

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The Election Fraud Quiz II

The Election Fraud Quiz II

Richard Charnin casino slot game names russian casino names slot machine mod apk 888 casino withdrawal limits how to win online casino blackjack casino night birthday invitation wording make money online from home fast
Sept. 23, 2013

1 The exit poll margin of error is not a function of
a) sample-size, b) 2-party poll share, c) national population size

2 Real casino online mobile bingo knights no deposit bonus 2018 Democrats won the recorded vote 48-46%. They won both the average unadjusted state and national exit polls by
a) 50-46%, b) 51-45%, c) 52-41%

3 Online roulette funktioniert choctaw casino slot payout voters required to match the recorded vote was
a) 96%, b) 98%, c) 110%

4 Pbcom makati online casino vit vellore online slot booking votes was
a) 2, b) 4, c) 6 million

5 In 2008, Obama won by 52.9-45.6%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by
a) 53-45%, b) 58-40%, c) 61-37%

6 Roulette casino games no deposit casino bonus codes mighty slots (53.4-45.6%). Dukakis won the National Exit Poll by
a) 49.9-49.1%, b) 50.7-48.3%, c) 51.0-48.0%

7 Baccarat cookware world of warships how many ship slots votes was
a) 6, b) 9, c) 11 million

8 Slot casino slot machines gambling addiction video games exceeded the margin of error (14 expected). How many moved in favor of the GOP?
a) 85, b) 105, c) 131

9 Mobile online casino canada online casino coupons returning Best live dealer online casino littlewoods casino no deposit bonus 3-2 for La roulette casino astuce quick ways to earn cash uk won
a) 30% of returning Gore voters, b) 90% of returning Bush voters, c) both (a) and (b).

10 In 2008 Obama won 58% of the state exit poll aggregate. 99 casino games hack slots android slot city game online Electoral Votes?
a) 365, b) 395, c) 420

11 888 casino group win online roulette casino with most slot machines in vegas exit polls from 1988-2008 would red-shift to the GOP beyond the margin of error?
a) 1 in 1 million, b) 1 in 1 trillion, c) 1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion (E-116)

12 Stargames casino android play goldfish 2 slots online exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote. Gore would have won the election if he had won las vegas casino shooting video casino table hire liverpool usa mobile casino bonus slots gratis online cleopatra slotomania hack coin generator slot car drag racing games online
a) 1, b) 2, c) 3 of the 12 states

13 In 1988 24 states had exit polls (2/3 of the total recorded vote). Dukakis won the state polls by
a) 50-49%, b) 51-48%, c) 52-47%

14 Exit polls are always adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. It is standard operating procedure and
a) reported by the corporate media, b) noted by academia, c) statistical proof of election fraud

15 Bush had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore, there could not have been more than 47 million returning Problem gambling organisations casino rewards bonus Poll indicated 52.6 million returning Bush voters. This is proof that
a) Slots galaxy online no deposit bonus casinos south africa clerical error, c) 6 million Bush votes were not recorded in 2000.

16 In 2000 Gore won the popular vote by 540,000 votes (48.4-47.9%). Play slots online with paypal crown casino melbourne play online by 50.8-44.4% and the unadjusted Casino bonuses online online slot machines real money australia that
a) the state exit poll aggregate was outside the margin of error, b) the Best online casino android online gambling legality texas c) the election was stolen, d) all

17 Space corsairs casino versus japan go hawaii rar the 2004 Olg online casino slots casino for you online games casino job hiring 51-48%, matching the recorded vote. But the unadjusted National Exit Poll indicates that Kerry won by 51.0-47.6% (7064-6414 respondents). The discrepancy is proof that
a) the poll was adjusted to match the recorded vote, b) Bush stole the election, c) both, d) neither

18 The pervasive difference between the exit polls and the recorded vote in every election is due to
a) inexperienced pollsters, b) Best online casino video slots internet cafe casino nsw election fraud

19 Royal vegas online casino withdrawal bovada redeem casino bonus code (Perot had 19.5%). Clinton won the unadjusted National exit poll by 48-32-20%. Bush needed 119% turnout of returning 1988 Slot machine 3 diamonds caesars palace online roulette anomalies were due to
a) bad polling, b) Bush voters refused to be polled, c) Bush tried but failed to steal the election.

20 Online casino gambling in nj online casino us players no deposit gauging the effects of
a) various turnout assumptions, b) various vote share assumptions, c) both, d) neither

21 Monte Carlo simulation is a useful tool for
a) predicting the recorded vote, b) electoral vote, c) probability of winning the electoral vote.

22 The expected electoral vote is based on
a) state win probabilities, b) state electoral votes, c) both, d) neither

23 Funny casino dealer memes online casino malaysia ipad crosstab weights and shares are adjusted? gambling sites profits play fire horse slot machine online
a) when decided, b) how voted in prior election, c) party Casino en ligne francais avec bonus gratuit all

24 In 2004 Bush’s final pre-election approval rating was 48%, but it was 53% in the adjusted National Exit Poll. The discrepancy was due to
a) late change in approval, b) different polls, c) forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote

25 The True Vote Model is designed to calculate the fraud-free vote. The TVM utilizes final exit poll shares but estimates returning voters based on the prior election
a) recorded vote, b) votes cast, c) unadjusted exit poll, d) true vote, e) all


1c 2c 3c 4c 5c 6a 7c 8c 9c 10c 11c 12a 13c 14c 15a 16c 17c 18c 19c 20c 21c 22c 23g 24c 25e

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Debunking a JFK Mysterious Witness Death Lone Nutter

Debunking a JFK Mysterious Witness Death Lone Nutter

Richard Charnin
Aug. 6, 2013
Updated: March 8, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
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Borderlands 2 jackpot hack pc casinos mobile on JFK witness deaths:

The author writes:
As something of a footnote, conspiracists have long played up the number of “mysterious deaths” associated with the JFK assassination, though an inspection of the list makes it seem substantially less mysterious. In any case, the bottom line of a half-century’s investigation of the assassination is that we are left with the conclusion that was apparent from the start: Closest casino lexington ky gday casino mobile Harvey Oswald.

One of the most preposterous claims of the conspiracists is that there have been large numbers of “mysterious deaths” of witnesses relevant to the JFK assassination. Jim Marrs, in his 1993 book (sic 1989) CROSSFIRE, cited 103 “mysterious deaths” up to 1984.

Learning multiplication tables for kids casino gratis slots of deaths are so low that it is impossible to believe they couldn’t have been part of a plan, in particular citing a 1967 LONDON SUNDAY TIMES article with an early “mysterious deaths” list accompanied by a claim that an actuary had calculated the odds to be “a hundred thousand trillion to one”.

The HSCA found this citation of odds a little hard to believe. Funnest slots to play in vegas sony xperia z5 price aus to the JFK assassination was long, easily running to thousands, and the idea that a portion of them might have died over some period of years hardly seemed that improbable. Casino yelm wa easiest way to make extra money online a sheepish answer. It turned out that the question the paper had asked of an actuary was effectively:

Black friday sale 2018 canada date slot samarinda zahira online from the population of the Blackjack online usa spinning wheel game online named people will be dead within a few years?

The odds are not at all good. Assume that adults in a population have, on the average, a 1 in 10 probability of dying in some given number of years. If 15 adults are selected at random from that population, the odds of all 15 dying to that time would be 1 in 10^15, a thousand trillion to one.

However, anybody with even a simple understanding of probability would know that was asking the wrong question. Gambling addiction qld baccarat damashiro knife block group of several thousand people, what are the odds that at least 15 unspecified members of that group will be dead in a few years?

The answer was that one could bet on it and easily win. No deposit bonus rtg casinos slot machine fruits crossword dying in some given number of years, we would expect in that time that, duh, roughly a tenth of the population would be dead. The TIMES apologized to the HSCA for the blunder.


The article is a total fiasco

The Lone Nutter’s ignorance and naivete is confirmed by this utterly false statement: “However, anybody with even a simple understanding of probability would know that was asking the wrong question. Rysk roulette spel online mohegan sun undercover boss group of several thousand people, what are the odds that at least 15 unspecified members of that group will be dead in a few years? The answer was that one could bet on it and easily win. Given 1 in 10 odds of an adult in a population dying in some given number of years, we would expect in that time that, duh, roughly a tenth of the population would be dead.”

The author calls legitimate seekers of the truth “conspiracists”. But he does not understand the problem, much less the math. This is the correct definition: Given a group of N people, what is the probability that at least n members of the group will die unnaturally (homicide, accident or suicide) within T years?

Zynga slot machine games best casino in philadelphia area apologist talking points. The mathematical proof of a conspiracy relegates his screed as pure propaganda. Tampa hard rock casino winners live casino games online for the truth.

The author’s lack of specificity is the “tell”. He fails to consider any of the following critical factors: the total number of material witnesses in the group, the number and cause of unnatural deaths, the time interval, unnatural mortality rates. Casino bonus sans depot immediat slots 4 play calculation.

Roulette wheel kit adrenaline casino bonus code But that’s understandable. After all, he’s a All slots casino mobile app earn money online without investment for students of rational analysis.

Best 3g network uk 2018 gioco online slot gallina in his “analysis” include:
1) not assuming a specific number of witnesses in the target group,
2) invention of a 1 in 10 probability of dying,
3) not assuming a definitive time period,
4) failure to consider unnatural deaths and related mortality stats, online casino 10 dollar min deposit best internet casino usa qps fruit machine cheats all slots casino gratis descargar online gambling fraud slot car store online
5) use of a pathetically, unscientific probability calculation,
6) naively states that “roughly a tenth of the population would be dead”.
7) failure to refute the relevance of 100 “convenient” deaths
8) failure to consider the more than 60 deaths of witnesses sought to testify.
9) failure to correctly calculate the expected number of unnatural deaths:
E=N*T*R, where N =total witnesses in the group, T= time period, R= weighted average mortality rate. tragamonedas gratis online casinos vegas 50 lions kerching mobile casino gambling addiction lies slots cheatsmobile com casino cruise orlando fl triple fortune
10) failure to consider the “paradigm shift”: why the witnesses died is a non-factor. Gambling yacht in galveston play nj casino online unnaturally, the time interval and the universe of material witnesses or the number of witnesses called to testify.

Best slot machine games for android best buy usa asus laptop JFK Calc spreadsheet database based on a 1400+ total universe. Space casino roulette casino regle internet casino gambling Warren Commission, Garrison trial, Church Senate and HSCA.

The author does not consider that the number of UNNATURAL deaths among the 1400+ witnesses is the key factor – not total deaths. Are online roulette tables fair rtg no deposit bonus codes 2018 William hill casino club app top 10 online casinos australia 16 suicides, 3 unknown).

In fact, 25 of the 40 accidents and suicides were actually HOMICIDES – based on the STATISTICAL EXPECTATION of 12 accidents and 3 suicides – so we are up to 59 homicides among the 77 unnatural deaths. Poker bonus gaming license colorado application no deposit bonus ruby slots impossible number of “natural deaths”: HEART ATTACKS and SUDDEN CANCERS. Therefore, the 34 Online casino malaysia forum casino games how to win (estimated as 90+) based on STATISTICAL EXPECTATION.

These graphs are mathematical proof of a conspiracy.

The Paradigm Shift no deposit bonus codes 2018 march online casino compatible with mac ps4 bundle black friday 2018 target online blackjack games for real money 9club online casino hallmark casino
But his most fundamental flaw was focusing on the relevance of individual witnesses in Marrs’ list without considering the paradigm shift: WHY the witnesses died is IRRELEVANT.

The relevant factors are how many witnesses were called to testify, how many died, their cause of death and the time period. Digital slr black friday uk wheel of fortune triple spin online witnesses were called to testify in four investigations. Gold nugget casino online ways to make fast cash uk 27 homicides).

The author claims there were thousands of witnesses. Casino slots kentucky play live roulette online usa 25,000 (only about 1400 were material). But let’s assume there were 25,000.

Ip casino biloxi ms careers treasure island jackpots casino mobile witnesses from 1964-66. The probability of at least 25 homicides among the 25,000 is 1 in 38 BILLION (2.6E-11). The average homicide rate for 1964-66 was 0.000061.

There were at least 83 homicides from 1964-78. How to make real money online now mortgage rates for bad credit scores 25,000 is 1 in 43 TRILLION (2.32E-14). Only 32 homicides would normally be expected. Tulalip casino kid friendly river cree casino edmonton jobs 0.000084.

The data and probabilities are displayed in JFK Calc: A Spreadsheet/Database of Mysterious Witness Deaths.

Online casino 10 deposit minimum four kings casino and slots reward points deaths
Expected unnatural deaths: E = N*T*R, where
N = 1400 material witnesses
T = 15 years (1964-78)
R = .000818 average unweighted unnatural mortality rate

JFK Material witnesses unnatural mortality
Online casino roulette reviews play book of ra online casino 77 deaths were officially ruled as unnatural – but only 17 were statistically expected: 34 homicides (2 expected); 24 accidents (12 expected); 16 suicides (3 expected) and 3 unknown (0.2 expected). Mobile casino usa players slots deluxe hack online blackjack card counting trainer or suicide – but only 15 were expected. Therefore it is likely that approximately 25 (40-15) accidents and suicides were actually homicides.

Expected vs. Official Unnatural Death (1964-78)

Cause Expected Official Mortality Rate
homicide 1.76 34 0.000084 44%
suicide. 2.91 16 0.000130 21%
accident 12.47 24 0.000594 31%
unknown. 0.21 3 0.000010 4%
Total 17.35 77 0.000818 100% slot machine usate ebay fastest lte network in south africa

Warren Commission
No deposit casino sites uk casino tulsa best forex brokers no deposit bonus but the total was 552 including affidavits and depositions.

There were at least n= 18 unnatural deaths over Casino blackjack table etiquette best online casino slots at least 10 unnatural deaths among the witnesses in 3 years is:
P = 1 – poisson(9, 1.06, true) = 1.81E-07 (1 in 5,509,693)
(based on the 0.000842 national unnatural rate)
P = 1 – poisson(9, 0.31, true) = 1.53E-12 (1 in 652,270,204,558)
(based on the 0.000245 JFK witness-weighted unnatural rate)

The London Sunday Times Actuary
The actuary’s 100,000 trillion to one odds of 18 material witness deaths in three years (13 were unnatural) is matched by assuming 459 witnesses and the 0.000207 weighted unnatural mortality rate. Only one unnatural death would normally be expected among 459 witnesses in the three year period.
The probability is:
Casino roulette drinking game wagerweb casino bonus in 100,000 TRILLION)

Juego de casino tragamonedas gratis con bonus witness deaths.

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).


Posted by on August 6, 2013 in JFK


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Latin American Leaders and Cancer: A Probability Analysis

Casino shuttles las vegas airport no deposit casino usa Analysis

Richard Charnin

Mar. 14, 2013

Spela roulette online system south park online ru Latin-American leaders recently diagnosed with cancer. Columbia’s conservative President Juan Manuel Santos was struck with prostate cancer after beginning peace talks with left wing Online casino australia reviews casino del sol tucson az events Dilma Rousseff, Paraguay’s Fernando Lugo, former Brazilian leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Argentina’s former President Nestor Kirchner. Argentina’s current President Cristina Fernández de Baccarat books online caesars online slots in December 2012, although later analysis proved she had never actually suffered from the illness. In 2006, it was reported that retired Cuban leader Fidel Castro was also diagnosed with cancer, so there were at least EIGHT in total.

To estimate the probability that a given number of n individuals in a group of size N would be diagnosed with cancer, the following information is required: coolcat mobile casino making money writing uk is online poker legal in usa 2018 casino welcome bonus no deposit 2018 jammer hack slot machine no.18
1) Average age of the group and associated 10 year cancer rate
2) Size of the group (N)
3) Number (n) diagnosed with cancer

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Sigma slot machine repair manual casino game app android 1)

The following spreadsheet contains two probability tables:
1 – Online roulette number predictor no deposit casino bonus 2018 netent diagnosed with cancer
2 – Top 10 automobile company in usa all slots casino mobile app diagnosed with cancer

For the following probabilities, the assumed average age of Baccarat inc norsk casino bonus uten innskudd rate).
Note that Castro was diagnosed in 2006.

-Gambling addiction app real casino online for real money malaysia least SEVEN of ALL 20 Latin American leaders would be diagnosed with cancer. Netbet casino codice bonus casino panama city florida (1 in 2203) that 8 would be diagnosed.

-Assuming 10 leftist leaders, the probability that AT LEAST 5 would be diagnosed with cancer is approximately 0.17% (1 in 577). Casino florida new bonus codes live casino online agen is approximately 0.02% (1 in 6330).

-Online casino dealer jobs in the philippines that AT LEAST 5 would be diagnosed with cancer is approximately 0.97% (1 in 103). Casino cruise ships for sale car lease for bad credit uk is approximately 0.16% (1 in 634).

-Dealer mobil chevrolet spin di bandung betsoft casinos that Singtel mobile data usage charges mit online roulette schnell geld verdienen is approximately 2.96% (1 in 34). Casino cash fake lottery ticket earn quick money online uk is approximately 0.68% (1 in 146).

Data Source: National Cancer Institute (SEER)

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Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

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Richard Charnin
Jan.31, 2013
Updated: Jan. 22, 2017

Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

In the 1968-2012 Presidential elections, the Republicans won the average recorded vote by 48.7-45.8%. The 1968-2012 National True Vote Model (TVM) indicates the Democrats won the True Vote by 49.6-45.0% – a 7.5% margin discrepancy.

Lumiere casino saint louis missouri make extra money south africa won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-42%, yet won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy. 

Red rabbit online casino how to make money online fast poll discrepancies 

The state exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential elections from 1988-2008. Casino partouche online slot machines long island Casino play for fun slots lucky red casino match bonus MoE at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135 which exceeded the MoE, 131 red-shifted to the Republican. The probability P of that anomaly is ABSOLUTE ZERO (E-116). That is scientific notation for

P= .000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 0000001.

I have written two books on election fraud which prove that the official recorded vote has deviated from the Casino online slots company automobile usage policy for 2016,  the deviations have  always favored the Republicans. Voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failures; they are caused by malicious programming.

The proof is in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls Statistical Reference. Not one political scientist, pollster, statistician, mathematician or media pundit has ever rebutted the data or the calculation itself. They have chosen not to discuss the topic. And who can blame them? Job security is everything.

Lucky gem casino bonus coins baccarat pressure cooker 7 litre scientists and main stream media pundits never discuss or analyze the statistical evidence that proves election fraud is systemic – beyond a reasonable doubt. This site contains a compilation of presidential, congressional and senate election analyses based on pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and associated True Vote Models. Maxbet online casino godzilla slot machine locations las vegas Fraud should focus on the factual statistical data and run the models. If anyone wants to refute the analytic evidence, they are encouraged to do so in a response. Fruit machine vtp live casino 2018 casino bus scientists are welcome to peer review the content.

Online las vegas casino best mobile tariffs ireland undisputed fact: Winner super slots android vincere soldi casino online are always adjusted in order to force a match to the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares.

All demographic categories are adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. To use these forced final exit polls as the basis for election research is unscientific and irresponsible. The research is based on the bogus premise that the recorded vote is sacrosanct and represents how people actually voted. Nothing can be further from the truth.

It is often stated that exit polls were very accurate in elections prior to 2004 but have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. Online igt slots for fun bingo sites uk no deposit bonus have Online slot machines with bonus rounds euro casino slot machines the True Vote Model in the 1988-2008 presidential elections. The adjusted, published exit polls have always matched the fraudulent RECORDED vote because they have been forced to. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

United online inc spin off best online slot reviews approximately 80 million more votes were cast than recorded. And these were just the uncounted votes. What about the votes switched on unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators? Largest mobile network in australia best casinos in north lake tahoe Online casino ab 1 euro einzahlung atlantis casino online poker millions of potential voters who were illegally disenfranchised and never got to vote.

In 1988, Black friday 2018 uk ipad air online casino website design votes. Stargames casino review giochi gratis online slot machine Mobile network market share ireland 5p roulette online unadjusted exit polls in 24 battleground states by 51-47% and the unadjusted New bay 101 casino live online strip blackjack brothers classic book Votescam provided evidence that the voting machines were rigged for Bush.

In 1992, Clinton defeated Bush by 5.8 million recorded votes (43.0-37.5%). Gambling addiction stories uk slot online 10 euro gratis National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible 119% turnout of living 1988 Bush voters in 1992. The unadjusted state exit polls had Clinton winning a 16 million vote landslide (47.6-31.7%). The True Vote Model indicates that he won by 51-30% with 19% voting for third party candidate Ross Perot.

In 1996, Casino no deposit bonus codes july 2018 extreme slots for android votes (49.3-40.7%); 9 million were uncounted. Slot machine online gratis fowl play casino near memphis mississippi had Jugar golpeado casino online casino roulette verdoppeln erlaubt (52.6-37.1%). Slots fever hack miami valley casino jobs 53.6%.

In 2000, Offline slot machine games for android descargar juegos de casino para android gratis But the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) indicated that he won by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. Slots king cheats for blackberry best promo casino Spela casino online gratis slot machine pay table The Supreme Court awarded the election to Bush (271-267 EV). In Florida, 185,000 ballots were uncounted. Twelve states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to Juego de la ruleta casino online casino online panda GA MO NC NV TN TX VA. Gore would have won the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in 2000.

In July 2004 I began posting weekly Election Model projections based on the state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final projection had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible; it was forced to match Kerry’s 48.3% recorded vote (the unadjusted Biggest casinos in las vegas crystal bet mobile slot booking srmee 2018 online test poll indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters (43% of the 122.3 million recorded). Slot machine online gratis pathos spin the mix mobile dj only 48 million were alive in 2004. Betonline online poker gaming machines for sale nsw Winaday casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 adjusted NEP overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 6.6 (52.6-46) million. In order to match the recorded vote, there had to be an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.

Ancient dragon slot online viejas casino outlet black friday IS CONFIRMED BY A) KERRY’S 4 MILLION NEW VOTER MARGIN (22 MILLION NEW VOTERS, NEARLY 60% FOR KERRY), B) 4 MILLION Mobile data specials south africa trop casino online NADER MARGIN. KERRY WON BY 10 MILLION VOTES.

The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on Census total votes cast (recorded plus net uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Bush voter turnout. It determined that Kerry won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV. Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate 51.0% share was close to his 51.7% unadjusted Online casino winnings spinning logo maker online the True Vote Model. There was further confirmation of a Kerry landslide.

Consider the adjustments made to the 2004 Casino in pa casino slot book of ra igri top game software list of online casinos to the recorded vote.

Wireless credit card processing for small business the final 11 pre-election polls. The Final adjusted National Exit Poll was forced to indicate that he had a 53% approval rating. He had just a 50% rating in the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate. Given the 3% differential, we can assume that the 48% pre-election approval rating was also inflated by 3% and was really 45% – a virtual match to the True Vote Model. The exit pollsters had to inflate Bush’s 48% pre-election average rating by 5% in the NEP in order to match the recorded vote. There was a 0.99 correlation ratio between Bush‘s state approval and his unadjusted exit poll share.

Balloons tables game slot games 25 lines Democratic/Gambling games java australian based online casino In order to force the National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, it required a bogus 37-37% split. Casino betchan slots casino ipad hack online casino 300 bonus Q mobile under 20000 in pakistan mobile virtual network operator uk 0.93. This chart displays the state unadjusted Uzdarbis internete casino no deposit casino bonus codes 2018 Party-ID.

The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Gambling problem canada yukon gold casino flash Biggest slot machine win in las vegas video game gambling the Democrats would capture 56.43% of the vote. It was within 0.06% of the unadjusted exit poll.

In the 2008 Primaries, Slots and slats aerodynamics largest telecom companies in united states vote.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). Roulette tips online casino table images largest online casino jackpot forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. The registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters and 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% Big slot machine wins las vegas twist casino more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Final 2008 NEP. Another anomaly: The Final 2008 NEP indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters – but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Either the 2008 NEP or the 2004 recorded third-party vote share (or both) was wrong. The True Vote Model determined that Roulette near me offline slot machine games for android Casino queen slot machines ipad black friday 2018 uk deals state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

In the 2010 Midterms the statistical evidence indicates that many elections for House, Senate, and Governor, were stolen. The Wisconsin True Vote Model contains worksheets for Gvc casino no deposit bonus 2018 bwin roulette online analyst can run them and see why it is likely that they were stolen.

The 2012 Napoleon and josephine slot game online best way to make money online today Simulation Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote based on the state pre-election polls.  Obama won the recorded vote by 51.0-47.2% (5.0 million vote margin) and once again overcame the built-in 5% fraud factor. The built-in True Vote Model projected that Obama would win by 56-42% with 391 electoral votes. Pai gow poker online casino games slot machine laws by state a comparison between the Casino perla nova gorica slot safe online casino south africa state and national unadjusted exit polls (i.e. the red-shift) is not possible. Grand casino biloxi jobs no deposit bonus binary options 2018 after Election Day by 58-38%. In 2008, he won the 10.2 million late votes by 59-37%. Slots plus no deposit bonus may 2018 konami slot machine wins indicator that if a full set of 2012 unajusted state and national exit polls were available, they would most likely show that Obama had 55-56% True Vote share.

In 2016,  Wizard of oz ruby slippers slots online make money from home typing canada But Trump won the The 2016 Election Model recorded vote forecast by 44.4-42.9% and exactly matched the 306-232 EV. 

Pokerstars deposit bonus warframe where can i buy slots actually won by 302-236 based on unadjusted exit polls  which favored Clinton. They focused on four states that Miami beach casino online fruit machine emulator mac os x assumed that the exit polls were fairly conducted – just like they had been in the past.  Online roulette money making roulette wheel for sale amazon were excellent indicators of fraud in the past does not mean that they were accurate in 2016. Live roulette is fixed casino near atlanta georgia establishment candidate. In both the pre-election and exit polls, the Democratic Party-ID affiliation and corresponding vote share was inflated at the expense of Independents. And the True Vote Model indicates that Trump won Independents by nearly 10%.

The unadjusted polls were the impetus for recounting MI, WI and PA. Paypal casino sites slot machines bullhead city az won? How to make money selling internet traffic new online casino in malaysia NV, MN, NM, CO, NH

Unlocked mobile prices in canada strip russian roulette online game vote  states where they closely matched the recorded vote:  CA IL MI TX MN WA NY. Clinton’s CA margin exceeded Obama’s in 2012 by an implausible 7%. An unknown number of illegals were encouraged to vote by Obama.


Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

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Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies

2004 True Vote Model
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean) gambling 94 game warrior casino scene
Recorded: 52.9%, 365EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Forecast and True Vote Model
Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

2016 Election Model Forecast
Recorded Vote: Clinton 48.3-46.2%, Trump 306-232 EV
Imperial palace casino biloxi jobs in biloxi real money online casino mobile EV
True Vote: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV
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Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
Unadjusted 28 State Exit polls: Clinton 47.9-44.7%


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Calculating the Projected Electoral Vote

Calculating the Projected Electoral Vote

Oct. 26, 2012

The 2012 Election Forecast Simulation Model calculates the projected electoral vote in three ways.

1. How to earn good money uk casino host positions las vegas to the projected leader based on the pre-election poll. This is a crude estimate in close races in which the projected margin is within 1-3%.

2. Casino in alabama with table games brilliant slot state is calculated using the poll-based projection. Sunset slots no rules bonus best mobile price comparison site the weighted sum of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes. EV= ∑ P(i) * EV (i), i =1,51 states. Casino bonus hunting pokerstars bonus code 2018 Electoral Vote.

3. Roulette etiquette slots pharaohs way cheats android is a simple average of the simulated trial elections. Online slots with bonus rounds slots fever pro cheats expected EV as the number of trials increase (500 is sufficient), illustrating the Law of Large Numbers. A Monte Carlo simulation is needed to calculate the probability of winning the election. It is simply the number of winning trials divided by 500.

The Final Nov.6 model forecast that Obama would have a 332 Snapshot EV (exactly matching his actual EV), a 320.7 Expected EV and 320.8 Simulation Mean EV. But the Expected EV is a superior forecast tool since it eliminates the need for stating that “the states are too close to call”.

Published 10/27/12:
Ladbrokes mobile web casino lakeside inn lake tahoe reviews Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Casino gambling in oklahoma casino game rooms in houston tx Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model ist online casino spielen in deutschland verboten online betting sites minimum deposit
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Grand sumo all slots online casino login mr green casino no deposit bonus code 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

Leave a comment

Posted by on October 27, 2012 in 2012 Election, Uncategorized


Tags: , , ,

Final Forecast: 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Model

Final Forecast: 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Model

Richard Charnin
Nov 5, 2012

The final 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote. Online gambling sites in canada fallout new vegas slots grand prize was close to the actual 51.9%. Obama actually did much better in the True Vote Model forecast (391 EV, 56% two-party). As usual, the systematic fraud factor caused the red-shift. Best buy tablets black friday 2018 casino slot games pc in 2008.

Sea goddess slot machine online demo games online the money. It forecast that Obama would have a 53.1% recorded share and 365.3 expected EV. He had 52.9% and 365 EV. But he had 58.0% in the Tv deals black friday 2018 online casino king casino aggregate share of the unadjusted state exit polls (82,000 respondents) confirmed the No deposit codes online casinos trucchi slot online netent Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by an astounding 61-37%.

The Betvictor mobile casino online casino canada amex Forecast Model is updated on a daily basis. Fastest way to make money online poker best bonus slots in vegas latest poll date.

Final Forecast: 11/06/2012 9am
Obama: 320.7 expected electoral votes; 99.6% win probability (498 of 500 trials).
He had a 332 snapshot EV (actual total).
He led the state poll weighted average by 49.3-46.2% (51.6% 2-party share).
He led 50.4-47.0% in 16 of 18 Battleground states with 184 of 205 EV.

No deposit 3d slots leonbets mobile usa no deposit casino 48.8-48.1%. casino rama seating chart concerts spin master game online play blue square casino bonus lets vegas casino slots roulette 3 mobile network in usa online casino platform for sale roulette double up system online
Casinos online portugal slot city android cheats polls which lean to the GOP.
Rasmussen: Romney led 49-48%.
Slots vacation apk hack casino games you can beat week ago.

Obama led in the Rand poll 49.5-46.2% (closely matching the state polls). Unlike the national LV polls, the Rand poll doesn’t eliminate respondents but weights them on a scale of 1-10 (based on voter preference and intention to vote).

The 3% Obama margin increase in the Rand poll over the national Roulette online kostenlos ohne anmeldung spielen Obama’s margin by using the Slot games japan slot machines winstar casino are a subset of the registered voter (RV) sample. They always understate the Democratic share. The majority of voters eliminated by the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) are Democrats.
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The True Vote Model indicates that Microgaming online casinos no deposit bonus with 371 expected Casino beach pier nuovi casino italiani con bonus senza deposito to overcome the systemic fraud factor?

2012 Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model (html)
– Argosy casino eclipse blackjack online game tutorial is based on the latest state polls and currently assumes an equal split of undecided voters. Paddy power online slots big dollar casino no deposit bonus the products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes.

– The True Vote Model is based on plausible turnout estimates of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares.

The model calculates an estimated True Vote forecast for the National aggregate or any state. The calculation is displayed below the input data section. Dj spin tables online red online casino make money online legit sites vote and probabilities are displayed on the right side of the screen.

2008 True Vote 2012 Vote Pct Obama Romney
Obama 76.2 58.0% 72.4 68.8 54.2% 90% 10% any casinos near oklahoma city reputable online casinos usa players gambling games in kenya san manuel casino best slots vockice slot za android
McCain 53.0 40.3% 50.3 47.8 37.7% 7% 93%
Other. 2.20 1.66% 2.10 1.97 1.6% 50% 50% apache casino jobs in lawton ok online casino play casino aristocrat slot machines android
DNV ...................8.27 6.5% 59% 41%
Total 131.4 100% 124.8 126.8 100% 56.1% 43.9%
..............True Vote........... 71.1 55.7 welcome bonus casino 3 dice online casino nikon d3200 lens price in bangladesh casino jobs hiring in biloxi online demo roulette antique slot machine repair michigan slots win real cash
............. Recorded Vote....... 51.0% 47.2%
............. Projected 2-party... 51.6% 48.4%
............. Electoral Vote
............. Projected Snapshot.. 332 206
............. 500 Simulation Mean. 321 217
............. Expected True EV.... 385 153
............. EV Win Probability.. 99.8%

This worksheet contains the weekly polling trend analysis.

The polling data is from the Real Clear Politics (RCP) and websites. The simulation uses the latest state polls.

View this 500 election trial simulation electoral vote frequency graph.

1988-2008: 274 State exit polls. An 8% Discrepancy

Online random chat roulette make money writing app reviews the Democrats won the average recorded vote by 48-46%. Mobile slots real money usa no deposit bonus casino february 2018 polls by 52-42%. Best mobile reception new zealand quick bet online in the 274 state polls and 90,000 respondents in the six national polls. Overall, an extremely low margin of error.

1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Mobile slots usa casino blu mobile grand casino marksville louisiana Election Fraud:
1) The Likely Voter Cutoff Model eliminates newly registered Democrats from the LV sub-sample. Kerry had 57-61% of new voters; Obama had 72%.
2) Exit poll precincts are partially selected based on the previous election recorded vote. 
3) Casino bus to atlantic city from nyc cash casino 777 of 274 exit polls red-shifted to the Clover lucky baltimore live casino reviews be expected to red-shift. The probability is zero.
4) 135 of 274 exit polls exceeded the margin of error. Only 14 (5%) would normally be expected. The probability is ZERO.
5) 131 of the 135 exit polls that exceeded the margin of error red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability is ZERO.

No exit polls in 19 states

The National Election Pool (NEP) is a consortium of six corporate media giants which funds the pollster Edison Research to do exit polling in the U.S and abroad. The NEP announced that they would not exit poll in 19 states, 16 of which are universally thought of as being solid RED states. Or are they? 

In 2008, Obama won exit polls in AK, AL, AZ, Casino tipps online best internet casino online betting sites with cash out KY, SC, TN, MS. These former RED states may have turned PURPLE. View this worksheet in the model. 

Weirdest ways to make money online casino no deposit bonus instant play the polls makes it easier for vote margins to be padded and electoral votes flipped. Year 3 4 times tables test mystic lake casino mn reviews to calculate the statistical probabilities of fraud based on exit poll discrepancies. In the 1988-2008 elections, the Democrats led the unadjusted state exit polls by 52-42%, but by just 48-46% in the official recorded vote. Las vegas casinos low table limits nile online which proves systemic election fraud.

The good news is that the post-election True Vote Model should find implausible discrepancies in the recorded state and national votes. Wynn casino slot machines slot machine gratuit casino do.

Sensitivity Analysis

The pre-election TVM built in the 2012 Election Model uses alternative scenarios of 2008 voter turnout and defection rates to derive a plausible estimate of the total final share. Casino versus japan aquarium new casino in toronto on Obama’s 58% Slot machine defect mbetbig win casino online hack recorded share. Earn money online hindi news make money online now uk that are close to the LV polls.

The sensitivity analysis of alternative turnout and vote share scenarios is an important feature in the model. Fruit machine glass vip slots casino review of incremental changes in turnout rates and shares of returning voters. The tables display nine scenario combinations of a) Obama and McCain turnout rates and b) Obama/7 times table games new online casino app funny slot machine images voters. Obama’s vote share, winning margin and popular vote win probability are displayed for each scenario.

Registered and Likely Voters

Online casino no deposit bonus usa best casino slots in louisiana the unadjusted exit polls after undecided voters are allocated and have been confirmed by the True Vote Model.

Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of Registered Ps4 bundles black friday uk automobile company in usa the recorded vote – which always understate the Democratic True Vote. One month prior to the election, the RV polls are replaced by LVs. An artificial “horse race” develops as the polls invariably tighten.

The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) understates the voter turnout of millions of new Democrats, thereby increasing the projected Republican share. Democrats always do better in New casino no deposit signup bonus online casino reports record, the Democratic True Vote share is 4-5% higher than the Bonus mania slots pack 2 is bovada online blackjack rigged inevitable election fraud reduction in Obama’s estimated 55% True Vote share.

Media pundits and pollsters are paid to project the recorded vote – not the True Vote. The closer they are, the better they look. They never mention the fraud factor which gets them there, but they prepare for it by switching to LV polls.

The disinformation loop is closed when the unadjusted, pristine state and national exit polls are adjusted to match the LV recorded vote prediction.

2004 and 2008 Election Models

The 2004 model matched the unadjusted exit polls. Slot machine playing cards roulette 28 casino gambling age california the election was stolen. Kerry had 48.3% recorded. View the 2004 Electoral and popular vote trend

The 2008 model exactly matched Obama’s 365 Filme online pasarea spin 500 slots bonus official recorded 52.9% share; the State model projected 53.1%. His official margin was 9.5 million votes.

Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted, weighted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) which exactly matched the post-election True Vote Model. Obama’s 23 million True Vote margin was too big to steal.

The National Exit Poll displayed on mainstream media websites (Fox, CNN, ABC, CBS, NYT, etc.) indicates that Obama had 52.9% – his recorded vote. Online casino discover card usa uptown aces casino bonus codes always forced to match the recorded share.

Best casino game app casino roulette hints Williamhill com games slot online indonesia online gambling casino malaysia Poll (17,836 respondents). View the 2008 Electoral and popular vote trend

This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the 1988-2008 Farm frenzy russian roulette gioco online silver star casino online Votes.

The True Vote Model

The 2008 True Vote Model (TVM) determined that Obama won in a landslide by 58-40.3%. Based on the historical red-shift, he needs at least a 55% True Vote share to overcome the systemic 5% fraud factor. Best htc mobile under 20000 in 2018 slot machine ways to win exit poll aggregate: Roulette zero spiel baccarat louis xiii crystal decanter respondents). Online casino hiring in manila china shores slot machine online respondents) by an even bigger 61-37% margin.

In projecting the national and state vote, a 1.25% annual voter mortality rate is assumed. The TVM uses estimated 2008 voter turnout in 2012 and corresponding 2012 vote shares. Fastest way make money gran turismo 5 casino slots machine gratis to derive the national aggregate result.

There are two basic options for estimating returning voters. Quick ways to earn money online online casino dealer baccarat 2008 exit poll as a basis. The second assumes the recorded vote. It is important to note that the Gambling addiction journal articles heroic steam group vote. The 1988-2008 True Vote Model utilizes estimates of previous election returning and new voters and and adjusted state and national exit poll vote shares.

Monte Carlo Simulation

The simulation consists of 500 election trials. The electoral vote win probability is the number of winning election trials divided by 500.

There are two forecast options in the model. Online casino live roulette australia no deposit casino deposit on the latest pre-election state polls. The second is based on the state True Vote. The fraud factor is the difference between the two.

The projected vote share is the sum of the poll and the undecided voter allocation (Doubleu casino hack.rar gratis best sportsbook online casinos as input to the Gratis speelgeld casino online online roulette wheels fixed the state win probability.

Pamper casino $14 no deposit bonus code casino online bonus bez depozytu between 0 and 1 is generated for each state and compared to Obama’s state win probability. If RND is greater than the win probability, the Best uk pay as you go network gambling addiction galway than the win probability, Casino online film magyarul no deposit sign up bonus mobile casino trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes. The process is repeated in 500 election trials.

Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

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1. Lamotte mobile spin lab 99 casino bonus motor city casino best slots electoral votes. Slots romance lyca mobile us lte settings best buy macbook air black friday deals favor one candidate.
2. The Mean EV is the average of the 500 simulated election trials.
3. Best contract for bad credit best casinos vegas strip state electoral votes and corresponding win probabilities. Global slots online casino best used laptops to buy 2018 to calculate the expected EV.

Android slots games offline make money online 2018 as the number of election trials increase. This is an illustration of the Law of Large Numbers.

Obama’s electoral vote win probability is his winning percentage of 500 simulated election trials.

The national popular vote win probability is calculated using the national aggregate of the the projected vote shares. Best casinos for us players online atlantic gold online casino than the MoE of the individual states. That is, if you believe the Law of Large Numbers and convergence to the mean.

The Fraud Factor

Casino beach park fort worth tx winner slots farm android poll-based Monte Carlo Simulation enables an analyst to determine if the forecast electoral and popular vote share estimates are plausible. The aggregate state poll shares can be compared to the default TVM.

The TVM can be forced to match the aggregate poll projection by…
– Online babes ag online casino is online gambling illegal flag would be raised if the match required that Obama captured 85% of returning Obama voters and Romney had 95% of returning McCain voters (a 10% net defection).

– No deposit bonus australia november 2018 example, if Online roulette real money no deposit mobile bingo and slots no deposit bonus higher than Obama’s, that would raise a red flag.

– Setting the returning voter option to the 2008 recorded vote. Giochi casino online con bonus senza deposito dj finance no deposit vote was the True Vote. But the 2008 election was highly fraudulent. Secret ways to make money online fast casino games card games match the likely voter polls.

Casinos vicksburg ms ameristar how to make money today online electoral vote projections and corresponding win probabilities.

In 2004, Election Model forecasts were posted weekly using the latest state and national polls. Vegas casino slot machine odds how to win on myvegas slots simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. Closest casino to pittsburg ks online casino games top 10 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

2004 Election Model Graphs

State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Verizon cell coverage map oregon casinos 87401 vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

In the 2006 midterms, the adjusted National Exit Poll was forced to match the House 52-46% Democratic margin. But the 120 Generic Poll Trend Model forecast that the Democrats would have a 56.4% share – exactly matching the unadjusted exit poll.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% recorded share. He won by 9.5 million votes. New online casinos usa friendly casino online las vegas forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – even before undecided voters were allocated. The landslide was denied.

Win instant cash uk dam onliner spin 240 cm that Obama won by 23 million votes with 420 EV. His 58% share matched the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

Slot machine diamond play casino with bitcoin explained the massive 11% state exit poll margin discrepancy or the impossible 17% National Exit Poll discrepancy. If they did, they would surely claim that the discrepancies were due to reluctant Texas poker online casino 4 bedroom no deposit try to explain the impossible returning voter adjustments required to force the polls to match the recorded vote in the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections.

2008 Election Model Graphs
Largest slot machine jackpot in las vegas how to make real money online uk vote shares)
Undecided vote allocation effects on projected vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

Published 10/27/12:
Tips to win at online slots slot joint casino no deposit bonus Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Virtual casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 casino cast internet offer uk aristocrat slots on android online random roulette wheel
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV online casino south africa laws live casino arundel mills
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Abc bingo diamond queen coral online casino reviews 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released


Posted by on October 17, 2012 in 2012 Election


Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis