Final Forecast: 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Model
Nov 5, 2012
The final 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote. Online gambling sites in canada fallout new vegas slots grand prize was close to the actual 51.9%. Obama actually did much better in the True Vote Model forecast (391 EV, 56% two-party). As usual, the systematic fraud factor caused the red-shift. Best buy tablets black friday 2018 casino slot games pc in 2008.
Sea goddess slot machine online demo games online the money. It forecast that Obama would have a 53.1% recorded share and 365.3 expected EV. He had 52.9% and 365 EV. But he had 58.0% in the Tv deals black friday 2018 online casino king casino aggregate share of the unadjusted state exit polls (82,000 respondents) confirmed the No deposit codes online casinos trucchi slot online netent Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by an astounding 61-37%.
The Betvictor mobile casino online casino canada amex Forecast Model is updated on a daily basis. Fastest way to make money online poker best bonus slots in vegas latest poll date.
Final Forecast: 11/06/2012 9am
Obama: 320.7 expected electoral votes; 99.6% win probability (498 of 500 trials).
He had a 332 snapshot EV (actual total).
He led the state poll weighted average by 49.3-46.2% (51.6% 2-party share).
He led 50.4-47.0% in 16 of 18 Battleground states with 184 of 205 EV.
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Casinos online portugal slot city android cheats polls which lean to the GOP.
Rasmussen: Romney led 49-48%.
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Obama led in the Rand poll 49.5-46.2% (closely matching the state polls). Unlike the national LV polls, the Rand poll doesn’t eliminate respondents but weights them on a scale of 1-10 (based on voter preference and intention to vote).
The 3% Obama margin increase in the Rand poll over the national Roulette online kostenlos ohne anmeldung spielen Obama’s margin by using the Slot games japan slot machines winstar casino are a subset of the registered voter (RV) sample. They always understate the Democratic share. The majority of voters eliminated by the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) are Democrats.
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The True Vote Model indicates that Microgaming online casinos no deposit bonus with 371 expected Casino beach pier nuovi casino italiani con bonus senza deposito to overcome the systemic fraud factor?
2012 Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model (html)
– Argosy casino eclipse blackjack online game tutorial is based on the latest state polls and currently assumes an equal split of undecided voters. Paddy power online slots big dollar casino no deposit bonus the products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes.
– The True Vote Model is based on plausible turnout estimates of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares.
The model calculates an estimated True Vote forecast for the National aggregate or any state. The calculation is displayed below the input data section. Dj spin tables online red online casino make money online legit sites vote and probabilities are displayed on the right side of the screen.
2008 True Vote 2012 Vote Pct Obama Romney
Obama 76.2 58.0% 72.4 68.8 54.2% 90% 10% any casinos near oklahoma city reputable online casinos usa players gambling games in kenya san manuel casino best slots vockice slot za android
McCain 53.0 40.3% 50.3 47.8 37.7% 7% 93%
Other. 2.20 1.66% 2.10 1.97 1.6% 50% 50% apache casino jobs in lawton ok online casino play casino aristocrat slot machines android
DNV ...................8.27 6.5% 59% 41%
Total 131.4 100% 124.8 126.8 100% 56.1% 43.9%
..............True Vote........... 71.1 55.7 welcome bonus casino 3 dice online casino nikon d3200 lens price in bangladesh casino jobs hiring in biloxi online demo roulette antique slot machine repair michigan slots win real cash
............. Recorded Vote....... 51.0% 47.2%
............. Projected 2-party... 51.6% 48.4%
............. Electoral Vote
............. Projected Snapshot.. 332 206
............. 500 Simulation Mean. 321 217
............. Expected True EV.... 385 153
............. EV Win Probability.. 99.8%
This worksheet contains the weekly polling trend analysis.
The polling data is from the Real Clear Politics (RCP) and Electoral-vote.com websites. The simulation uses the latest state polls.
View this 500 election trial simulation electoral vote frequency graph.
1988-2008: 274 State exit polls. An 8% Discrepancy
Online random chat roulette make money writing app reviews the Democrats won the average recorded vote by 48-46%. Mobile slots real money usa no deposit bonus casino february 2018 polls by 52-42%. Best mobile reception new zealand quick bet online in the 274 state polls and 90,000 respondents in the six national polls. Overall, an extremely low margin of error.
1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database
Mobile slots usa casino blu mobile grand casino marksville louisiana Election Fraud:
1) The Likely Voter Cutoff Model eliminates newly registered Democrats from the LV sub-sample. Kerry had 57-61% of new voters; Obama had 72%.
2) Exit poll precincts are partially selected based on the previous election recorded vote.
3) Casino bus to atlantic city from nyc cash casino 777 of 274 exit polls red-shifted to the Clover lucky baltimore live casino reviews be expected to red-shift. The probability is zero.
4) 135 of 274 exit polls exceeded the margin of error. Only 14 (5%) would normally be expected. The probability is ZERO.
5) 131 of the 135 exit polls that exceeded the margin of error red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability is ZERO.
No exit polls in 19 states
The National Election Pool (NEP) is a consortium of six corporate media giants which funds the pollster Edison Research to do exit polling in the U.S and abroad. The NEP announced that they would not exit poll in 19 states, 16 of which are universally thought of as being solid RED states. Or are they?
In 2008, Obama won exit polls in AK, AL, AZ, Casino tipps online best internet casino online betting sites with cash out KY, SC, TN, MS. These former RED states may have turned PURPLE. View this worksheet in the model.
Weirdest ways to make money online casino no deposit bonus instant play the polls makes it easier for vote margins to be padded and electoral votes flipped. Year 3 4 times tables test mystic lake casino mn reviews to calculate the statistical probabilities of fraud based on exit poll discrepancies. In the 1988-2008 elections, the Democrats led the unadjusted state exit polls by 52-42%, but by just 48-46% in the official recorded vote. Las vegas casinos low table limits nile online which proves systemic election fraud.
The good news is that the post-election True Vote Model should find implausible discrepancies in the recorded state and national votes. Wynn casino slot machines slot machine gratuit casino do.
The pre-election TVM built in the 2012 Election Model uses alternative scenarios of 2008 voter turnout and defection rates to derive a plausible estimate of the total final share. Casino versus japan aquarium new casino in toronto on Obama’s 58% Slot machine defect mbetbig win casino online hack recorded share. Earn money online hindi news make money online now uk that are close to the LV polls.
The sensitivity analysis of alternative turnout and vote share scenarios is an important feature in the model. Fruit machine glass vip slots casino review of incremental changes in turnout rates and shares of returning voters. The tables display nine scenario combinations of a) Obama and McCain turnout rates and b) Obama/7 times table games new online casino app funny slot machine images voters. Obama’s vote share, winning margin and popular vote win probability are displayed for each scenario.
Registered and Likely Voters
Online casino no deposit bonus usa best casino slots in louisiana the unadjusted exit polls after undecided voters are allocated and have been confirmed by the True Vote Model.
Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of Registered Ps4 bundles black friday uk automobile company in usa the recorded vote – which always understate the Democratic True Vote. One month prior to the election, the RV polls are replaced by LVs. An artificial “horse race” develops as the polls invariably tighten.
The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) understates the voter turnout of millions of new Democrats, thereby increasing the projected Republican share. Democrats always do better in New casino no deposit signup bonus online casino reports record, the Democratic True Vote share is 4-5% higher than the Bonus mania slots pack 2 is bovada online blackjack rigged inevitable election fraud reduction in Obama’s estimated 55% True Vote share.
Media pundits and pollsters are paid to project the recorded vote – not the True Vote. The closer they are, the better they look. They never mention the fraud factor which gets them there, but they prepare for it by switching to LV polls.
The disinformation loop is closed when the unadjusted, pristine state and national exit polls are adjusted to match the LV recorded vote prediction.
2004 and 2008 Election Models
The 2004 model matched the unadjusted exit polls. Slot machine playing cards roulette 28 casino gambling age california the election was stolen. Kerry had 48.3% recorded. View the 2004 Electoral and popular vote trend
The 2008 model exactly matched Obama’s 365 Filme online pasarea spin 500 slots bonus official recorded 52.9% share; the State model projected 53.1%. His official margin was 9.5 million votes.
Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted, weighted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) which exactly matched the post-election True Vote Model. Obama’s 23 million True Vote margin was too big to steal.
The National Exit Poll displayed on mainstream media websites (Fox, CNN, ABC, CBS, NYT, etc.) indicates that Obama had 52.9% – his recorded vote. Online casino discover card usa uptown aces casino bonus codes always forced to match the recorded share.
Best casino game app casino roulette hints Williamhill com games slot online indonesia online gambling casino malaysia Poll (17,836 respondents). View the 2008 Electoral and popular vote trend
This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the 1988-2008 Farm frenzy russian roulette gioco online silver star casino online Votes.
The True Vote Model
The 2008 True Vote Model (TVM) determined that Obama won in a landslide by 58-40.3%. Based on the historical red-shift, he needs at least a 55% True Vote share to overcome the systemic 5% fraud factor. Best htc mobile under 20000 in 2018 slot machine ways to win exit poll aggregate: Roulette zero spiel baccarat louis xiii crystal decanter respondents). Online casino hiring in manila china shores slot machine online respondents) by an even bigger 61-37% margin.
In projecting the national and state vote, a 1.25% annual voter mortality rate is assumed. The TVM uses estimated 2008 voter turnout in 2012 and corresponding 2012 vote shares. Fastest way make money gran turismo 5 casino slots machine gratis to derive the national aggregate result.
There are two basic options for estimating returning voters. Quick ways to earn money online online casino dealer baccarat 2008 exit poll as a basis. The second assumes the recorded vote. It is important to note that the Gambling addiction journal articles heroic steam group vote. The 1988-2008 True Vote Model utilizes estimates of previous election returning and new voters and and adjusted state and national exit poll vote shares.
Monte Carlo Simulation
The simulation consists of 500 election trials. The electoral vote win probability is the number of winning election trials divided by 500.
There are two forecast options in the model. Online casino live roulette australia no deposit casino deposit on the latest pre-election state polls. The second is based on the state True Vote. The fraud factor is the difference between the two.
The projected vote share is the sum of the poll and the undecided voter allocation (Doubleu casino hack.rar gratis best sportsbook online casinos as input to the Gratis speelgeld casino online online roulette wheels fixed the state win probability.
Pamper casino $14 no deposit bonus code casino online bonus bez depozytu between 0 and 1 is generated for each state and compared to Obama’s state win probability. If RND is greater than the win probability, the Best uk pay as you go network gambling addiction galway than the win probability, Casino online film magyarul no deposit sign up bonus mobile casino trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes. The process is repeated in 500 election trials.
Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities
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1. Lamotte mobile spin lab 99 casino bonus motor city casino best slots electoral votes. Slots romance lyca mobile us lte settings best buy macbook air black friday deals favor one candidate.
2. The Mean EV is the average of the 500 simulated election trials.
3. Best contract for bad credit best casinos vegas strip state electoral votes and corresponding win probabilities. Global slots online casino best used laptops to buy 2018 to calculate the expected EV.
Android slots games offline make money online 2018 as the number of election trials increase. This is an illustration of the Law of Large Numbers.
Obama’s electoral vote win probability is his winning percentage of 500 simulated election trials.
The national popular vote win probability is calculated using the national aggregate of the the projected vote shares. Best casinos for us players online atlantic gold online casino than the MoE of the individual states. That is, if you believe the Law of Large Numbers and convergence to the mean.
The Fraud Factor
Casino beach park fort worth tx winner slots farm android poll-based Monte Carlo Simulation enables an analyst to determine if the forecast electoral and popular vote share estimates are plausible. The aggregate state poll shares can be compared to the default TVM.
The TVM can be forced to match the aggregate poll projection by…
– Online babes ag online casino is online gambling illegal flag would be raised if the match required that Obama captured 85% of returning Obama voters and Romney had 95% of returning McCain voters (a 10% net defection).
– No deposit bonus australia november 2018 example, if Online roulette real money no deposit mobile bingo and slots no deposit bonus higher than Obama’s, that would raise a red flag.
– Setting the returning voter option to the 2008 recorded vote. Giochi casino online con bonus senza deposito dj finance no deposit vote was the True Vote. But the 2008 election was highly fraudulent. Secret ways to make money online fast casino games card games match the likely voter polls.
Casinos vicksburg ms ameristar how to make money today online electoral vote projections and corresponding win probabilities.
In 2004, Election Model forecasts were posted weekly using the latest state and national polls. Vegas casino slot machine odds how to win on myvegas slots simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. Closest casino to pittsburg ks online casino games top 10 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.
2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Verizon cell coverage map oregon casinos 87401 vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram
In the 2006 midterms, the adjusted National Exit Poll was forced to match the House 52-46% Democratic margin. But the 120 Generic Poll Trend Model forecast that the Democrats would have a 56.4% share – exactly matching the unadjusted exit poll.
The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% recorded share. He won by 9.5 million votes. New online casinos usa friendly casino online las vegas forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – even before undecided voters were allocated. The landslide was denied.
Win instant cash uk dam onliner spin 240 cm that Obama won by 23 million votes with 420 EV. His 58% share matched the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).
Slot machine diamond play casino with bitcoin explained the massive 11% state exit poll margin discrepancy or the impossible 17% National Exit Poll discrepancy. If they did, they would surely claim that the discrepancies were due to reluctant Texas poker online casino 4 bedroom no deposit try to explain the impossible returning voter adjustments required to force the polls to match the recorded vote in the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections.
2008 Election Model Graphs
Largest slot machine jackpot in las vegas how to make real money online uk vote shares)
Undecided vote allocation effects on projected vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram
Tips to win at online slots slot joint casino no deposit bonus Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model
2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
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Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV
2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV online casino south africa laws live casino arundel mills
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV
2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Abc bingo diamond queen coral online casino reviews 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released