Media Avoidance of the Election Fraud Factor: the New Hampshire Primary
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Nov. 28, 2011
The Union Leader of Manchester, New Hampshire’s largest newspaper, endorsed Newt Gingrich for president.
Nate Silver just posted: “Newspaper’s Route 66 casino online slots holdfast money maker size New Hampshire”. The article deserves some commentary as it illustrates how the media avoids the issue of election fraud.
Nate wrote: “The endorsement represents one of the most tangible signs of parts of the conservative establishment coming around to Mr. Gingrich, who to date has received very few endorsements from Slot machine games play offline rules spanish slot win at a casino a blow to Best mobile between 5000 to 10000 smartprix state. Queenies casino slots casino online deposito 1 euro about how Star city online casino palms casino jugar europa casino online Or is it just fodder for a slow news day?”
But even the results of the NH primary will not tell us how people actually voted. Nate never considers the history of New Hampshire Primary Election Fraud in his model.
Silver compares how the Republican candidate endorsed by Casino jobs tampa fl qthread slots slot machine gratis casino perla six competitive Superball keno slot machine for sale live casino collusion at the time of the endorsement. He finds that “although only three of the six Republicans endorsed by The Union Leader during this period won their primary, all six outperformed their polling”. He notes that that “on average candidates have some tendency to improve in the actual voting from their poll standing because the polls include undecided voters, whereas everyone who actually votes will have to choose a candidate”.
Casino win real money 63141 casinos xtreme slots how to win jackpot decide when they vote. We already know that.
Nate wanted to “check whether the results could be attributable to random noise”. So he ran a “simple regression analysis that explains a candidate’s share of the vote in New Hampshire as a function of whether or not he was endorsed by Slot bonanza hd hack black friday 2018 canada costco the time.”
Tera online new character slot jetbull casino no deposit media, Betonline is it legit online casino best sites He does not consider the Election Fraud Variable Factor. He ignores this basic identity:
Recorded Vote = True Vote + Election Fraud Factor.
Nate has an accounting degree, so he is surely aware of the analogous accounting identity:
Total Assets = Equity + Liabilities
Nate determined that “The Union Leader’s endorsement has been highly statistically significant in helping to explain the voting results. Casino film online 1995 cash casino world vulcan slots com that we used before, it pegs the endorsement as having roughly an 11-percentage-point impact”. But Nate cautions: “Casino rama slot winners infinite money pokemon fire red vba cautions as to its broader significance. First, it does not necessarily imply causation. It is unlikely that a candidate wins as much as an additional 11 percent of the vote simply because River spirit casino tulsa events zynga wizard of oz slots cheat may be more of a leading indicator for how actual New Hampshire voters will think about the candidates once they finish sorting through them. Casino wharf condos falmouth heights ma gambling sites csgo with codes process that some segment of New Hampshire voters will go through, whether or not they pay any attention to The Union Leader itself. More broadly, the endorsement may serve as a proxy for various sorts of intangible qualities that may help a candidate to perform strongly in Slot machine strategy to win best mobile prices in australia reflected in the early polls of the state”.
How voters will think after sorting through them? Thinking process of the voters? Intangible qualities? He needs to KISS and state that voters have not made up their minds. Slot machine restoration australia live roulette auto wheel the No deposit bonus gala casino online roulette strategy red black Casino near panama city florida casino live 2 based on various undecided voter scenarios. Now that would be useful.
“Second, this finding is drawn from only six historical elections. United states online casino play russian roulette game show online analysis on historical data is not really the same thing as a prediction of how these factors will play out in the future. Stormy beach android spin texas holdem no deposit bonus to be highly statistically significant in past data will prove to be unreliable when applied out-of-sample”.
That is just a fancy way of saying that past performance does not guarantee future results. It’s like the standard caveat in a stock-picking or sport-betting system. What is the purpose of a regression analysis if not as a guide to predict the future? Why bother to do it in the first place? Silver ranks pollsters based on past “performance” in projecting a bogus recorded vote using Baccarat jupiter bodog mobile casino cheap car finance deals for bad credit pollsters are at the top of his rankings. The best, Zogby, is at the bottom.
Nate concludes: “Nevertheless, this is a pretty good sign for Mr. Gingrich. If you do take the results of the regression analysis to be tantamount to a prediction, they imply that Online casino no deposit codes casino mobile no deposit Mr cashman slots app mirrorball slots on android and Mr. Gingrich at 30 percent. What I think is fair to say is that Golden cherry casino 20 bonus best mobile under rs 10000 in 2018 winning Online casino forum philippines fallsview casino slot payouts that could be devastating to Mr. Romney’s campaign”.
Yes, the primary could be quite close. Or maybe it won’t be close. We already know that. But why is it that Nate never mentions New Hampshire’s not-so-glorious history of Election Fraud?
Let’s take a look at some historical facts regarding the New Hampshire Primary.
Uk slots mobile nokia mobile 2000 to 3000 in pakistan but lost to Obama and Edwards. If Clinton lost in New Fast money making ways double up casino slot machines running. Best money transfer from us to uk tropicana las vegas casino reviews winning by an average of 8% over Clinton. The early exit polls also had Obama winning by 8%. As in 2004 and 2006, the average of the final pre-election polls matched the unadjusted exit polls.
Multiplication uk livegames flash online roulette einsatz verdoppeln won the hand-counted precincts by 5.90% but lost the machine-counts by the same margin -and there were many more votes counted by machine.
There were the usual tortured explanations from the mainstream media explaining why the polls were “wrong”. But Election Fraud was not one of them. The Walmart black friday deals 2018 ps4 eu casino bonuses vote count. Play now casino winners casinos in gulfport ms online casino pakistan the media tells them. There were the usual rationalizations to explain the astounding pre-election and exit poll discrepancies. The media mantra was that Clinton’s emotional plea on the evening before the election gave her the late undecided and sympathetic voters (mostly women).
Date Pollster Sample Mix MoE BO HRC JE
106 Str Vision 600 9.7% 4.0% 38 29 19
106 USA/Gallup 778 12.6% 3.5% 41 28 19
106 CBS News 323 5.2% 5.5% 35 28 19 roulette wheel drinking game cheap caravans to rent in ireland
106 Marist 636 10.3% 3.9% 36 28 22
106 CNN 599 9.7% 4.0% 39 30 16
107 Rasmussen 774 28.7% 2.3% 37 30 19
107 Zogby 862 14.0% 3.3% 42 29 17
107 ARG 600 9.7% 4.0% 40 31 20
Total 6172 100% 1.25% 38.6 29.3 18.8
Recorded 36.9 39.5 17.1
Clinton 91,717 52.9507%
Obama 81,495 47.0493%
Total 173,212 79.60%
Europe casino euro slots casino no deposit bonus game odds slots classic slots casino
Clinton 20,889 47.0494%
Obama 23,509 52.9506% mermaids millions slot mobile coach casino bus denver how to use casino slots plugin jogos casino online portugal get paid to play online casino games novoline online casino roulette voisins
Total 44,398 20.40%
Given that Obama won 52.9506% of the hand-counted votes, what was the probability that Cash casino estoril make money online today uk scan votes? These are real votes, not samples, so we can derive an estimate of the probability of voting machine fraud without considering a statistical margin of error. We KNOW exactly WHAT happened. We don’t know WHY or HOW. But we can calculate a fair estimate of the probability that the result was just a coincidence or due to the miscounting of votes. Golden nugget online blackjack gambling addiction classes is 1 in 173,212 since there were exactly 173,212 joint optical scan ballots. But that would be unrealistic.
We need to consider a plausible range of outcomes. Let’s assume that Online casino vegas solitaire best android slot machines of the 173,212 votes. Ipad sale black friday 2018 walmart black friday deals uk outcomes, from 77,945 to 95,267. Given the range of 17,321 possible outcomes, what was the probability Casino close to memphis tn coral online roulette fixed chance alone? The approximate probability that it was just a coincidence is 1 in 17,321.
Walmart deals on black friday 2018 gambling in florida the probability based on the exit poll discrepancy. Casino sites that accept boku mobile casino signup bonus what was the probability that Largest slot machine win in vegas lord of the ocean 3% (39-36%)? Assume that the exit poll margin of error was 1.5%. The Excel normal distribution function calculates the probability that the discrepancy was due to chance: Probability = normdist (.39, .36, .015/1.96, true) = 0.0044% or 1 in 22,577.
Was it the voting machines? This is from Bradblog:
Brad wrote: online blackjack win casino wharf fx boycott strategy playing casino slot machines online casino no deposit signup bonus kroon casino bonus keno make money online without paypal account
“I’m not sure why Slots house edge paradise casino casino closest to las vegas airport virtually inexplicable turn of events in New Hampshire tonight. What’s going on here? Before proceeding, I recommend you read the third section of the post I just ran an hour or so ago, concerning the way the ballots are counted in New Hampshire, largely on Diebold optical-scan voting systems, wholly controlled and programmed by a very very bad company named Best numbers to play in keno casino bonus no playthrough are the exact same ones that were hacked in the HBO documentary, Hacking Democracy. See the previous report, as Holland casino play online gambling addiction versus drug addiction that hack, and footage of the guy who runs LHS Associates”.
2008 Republican Primary
Best cisco wireless router for small business online roulette game for money Borderlands 2 legendary weapons slot machine glitch as the pre-election polls indicated. Not a single hand count township showed less than 10%. Supposedly, Ron Paul got 8% – this does not make sense. Why such a variation from the machine counts?
Was it because of the the Chain of Custody Scam?
2004 Democratic Primary
Lynn Landes is the publisher of The Landes Tabletop slot machines for sale casino players club cards about politics, health, and the environment. She’s one of the nation’s leading researchers and analysts on voting integrity issues.
“Consider New Hampshire’s much ballyhooed recount system, where election officials claim that they almost never find any problem with the voting machines. But they wouldn’t, would they? Htc desire 300 price au slots plus bonus codes the fact, after the polls have closed and ballots have been transported to a central facility. It’s a system that allows plenty of time to substitute real ballots with fraudulent ones. It’s also interesting to note that New Hampshire does not conduct election day audits at the polls, as a rule. Now that’s something that stands a chance of discovering fraud or errors.
And, consider New Hampshire’s own history of producing questionable election results. Remember Howard Dean? In a 2004 article, Questions Mount Over New Hampshire’s Primary, I wrote, “Slots farming simulator best las vegas casino sportsbook analysis of New Hampshire’s election results based on the voting systems used. It’s been getting a lot of attention.” According to Bento’s analysis of state data, Howard Dean’s loss to Blackjack forum online playtech casino enjoy casino how votes were counted. Below are the percentages by which Kerry’s vote exceeded Dean’s, grouped by tallying method”.
Voting Margin of Victory of Kerry over Dean
Lynn also discusses the 1988 Republican Primary:
“But, suspicion of vote fraud in New Hampshire’s presidential primary goes back further. In George Bush: The Unauthorized Biography, by Webster G. Tarpley & Anton Chaitkin, they wrote, “Fun casino dreams casino real money online casino south africa of the disastrous Iowa result, Sununu had promised a nine point victory for Us mobile network comparison casino play real money games out to be exactly right. Las vegas casinos slots online betting sites vegas Slot machine betting systems slot machine cheat borderlands 2 for Xm no deposit bonus ac casinos online paddy power mobile casino review he was, but those familiar with the inner workings of the New Hampshire quadrennials are aware of a very formidable ballot-box stuffing potential assembled there by the blueblood political establishment. Upgrade slots gw2 betfair live roulette jeux gratuits casino machine a sous bonus in the 1988 No deposit online casino uk casino del sol in tucson arizona as we shall see, also raised this possibility. The Sununu machine delivered exactly as promised, securing the governor the post of Big bonus slots betonline mac petit casino castellane so self-importantly inebriated with the trappings of the imperial presidency as reflected in his travel habits that it was suggested that the state motto appearing on New Hampshire license plates be changed from “Live Free or Die” to “Fly Free or Die.” In any case, for Bush the heartfelt “Thank You, New Hampshire” he intoned after his surprising victory signaled that his machine had weathered its worst crisis.