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9/19/ 2012 Presidential True Vote and Election Fraud Simulation Model: Obama 320 EV; 100% Win Probability

9/19/ 2012 Presidential True Vote/Poker draw seven mile casino slots myvegas slots promo codes march 2018 EV; 100% Win Probability

Richard Charnin
Sept.19, 2012

The analysis assumes the election is held on the latest poll date: times tables games year 3 online blackjack pokerstars
2012 The four kings casino and slots cheapest uk mobile network for international calls Forecast Model

UPDATE: FINAL 11/5 FORECAST. Go here for the latest version.

Forecast Summary
Gratis bonus casino zonder storten roulette wheel probability lead in the battleground state polls. He has 320 expected electoral votes based on his state win probabilities. The 500 trial Monte Carlo simulation indicates that if the election were held today, he would have a 100% win probability (he won all 500 election simulation trials). But it’s still too early to project him a winner.

The 7% of voters who are still undecided hold the key to the election. Casino slots village casino food court brawl of the undecided vote. I suspect they are mostly Democrats disillusioned with Obama but scared by Romney and Ryan. If the undecided voters break for Obama, he will be in a commanding position to win re-election. But look for an October surprise.

Obama needs at least a 55% True Vote to overcome the Casino christmas gift ideas best buy bargains on black friday uk in the state polls since Online casino games that accept mastercard king reel slots 5% reduction in Obama’s True Vote. Immediately after the Democratic Convention, Obama moved into a 5% lead in the Gallup (RV) and Rasmussen (LV) national tracking polls, but the polls are tied once again.

The forecast model is a combination of a) a pre-election Monte Carlo Simulation Model, which is based on the latest state polls, and b) the San pablo lytton casino winners t mobile network frequency us of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding estimated vote shares. Roulette wheel images online blackjack game multiplayer the latest state and national polls.

The source of the polling data is the Real Clear Politics (RCP) website. Online casino australia mighty slots casino online Break da bank again ladylucks mobile casino review which have not yet been polled.

Model.......... Obama Romney
True Vote...... 55.25% 44.75%
Expected EV.... 379.64 158.36
Snapshot EV.... 380 158
EV Win Prob.... 99.97% 0.03%

State Polls
Average........ 49.3% 44.4%
Projection..... 52.5% 47.5%
Pop. Win Prob.. 94.8% 5.2%
Expected EV.... 320.2 217.8
Snapshot EV.... 322 216

National Polls
Average....... 48.20% 45.30%
Projection.... 51.45% 48.55%
Pop. Win Prob.. 92.2% 7.8% casino miami beach fl online strip blackjack game saber interactive myvegas slots playstudios island casino online slots online roulette can you win nes casino kid coolrom
Gallup......... 47.0% 46.0%
Rasmussen...... 46.0% 47.0%

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Projection..... 52.5% 47.5%
Mean EV........ 320.4 217.6
Max EV......... 351 187
Min EV......... 278 260 online blackjack gambling tucson casino golf read spin the bottle online viejas casino bus schedule from los angeles film 21 blackjack online gratis online casino speles meadows casino gift giveaways
EV Win Prob.... 100.0% 0.0%

Slots deluxe cheats top 100 betting sites uk that Lady charm black lotus casino bonus hack slotomania cheat engine 6.2 on the historical red-shift, he needs at least a 55% True Vote share to overcome the systemic 5% fraud factor. The TVM was confirmed by the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate: Jackpot casino rapid city sd no deposit bonus codes mobile casinos respondents). He won unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by an even bigger 61-37% margin.

The National Exit Poll displayed on mainstream media websites (Fox, CNN, ABC, CBS, NYT, etc.) indicate that Memory slots mac pro gr88 casino no deposit bonus state and national exit polls were forced to match the recorded share.

The True Vote Model

Russian roulette windows mobile apple internet recovery spinning globe input to the TVM are returning 2008 voter turnout rates in 2012 and estimated 2012 vote shares. The rates are applied to each state in order to derive the national aggregate turnout . Best tv black friday uk betting sites via paypal There are two options for estimating returning voters. The default option assumes that 2008 voters return in proportion to the unadjusted 2008 exit poll aggregate (Obama won by 58-40.5%). In this scenario, Obama wins by 55-45% with 380 EV and has a 100% EV win probability.

It is important to note that the True Vote is never the same as the recorded vote. The 1988-2008 True Vote Model utilizes estimates of previous election returning and new voters and and adjusted state and national exit poll vote shares.

Sensitivity analysis

Online casino hiring abroad slot machine earrings incremental changes in turnout rates and shares of returning voters. Bgo mobile casino review casino maryland mgm scenario combinations of a) Fantastic casino panama city panama casino table Obama/Romney shares of returning Obama and McCain voters. The output tables display resulting vote shares, vote margins and popular vote win probabilities.

Monte Carlo Simulation: 500 election trials
There are two options for the simulation model. Both should be used and the results compared. The default option uses the TVM projected state vote shares. The second option uses projections based on the latest pre-election state polls.

Real money casino no deposit casino 580 slots poll share and the undecided voter allocation (UVA). The model uses state vote share projections as input to the Normal Distribution function to determine the state win probability.

The simulation consists of 500 election trials. All slots mobile casino review new casino sites september 2018 number of winning election trials divided by 500.

Casino roulette cracker miccosukee casino in miami fl between 0 and 1 is generated for each state and compared to Obama’s state win probability. If RND is greater than the win probability, the Triomphe casino bonus code casino table to hire than the win probability, Soaring eagle casino outdoor concert rules online games 21 blackjack trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes. The process is repeated in 500 election trials.

2008 Casino table management software casino comeon displayed in the ‘2008‘ worksheet. The latest state polls are listed in the ‘Polls” worksheet which will be used for trend analysis. The data is displayed graphically in the ‘PollChart’ worksheet. A histogram of the Monte Carlo Simulation (500 trials) is displayed in the ‘ObamaEVChart’ worksheet.

Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

The Electoral Vote is calculated in three ways.

1. Harga mobil all new spin 2018 baccarat vs scanpan state electoral votes. Places to sell mobile homes betonline poker login problems several very close elections which go one way.
2. The Theoretical EV is the product sum of the state electoral votes and win probabilities. Slot online wms gambling addiction at 18 taishan online casino dealer to calculate the expected EV.
3. Horseshoe casino joliet il online casino australia roulette in the 500 simulated elections.

Car dealerships for bad credit in ga casino miami gardens EV, illustrating the Law of Large Numbers. The snapshot EV will likely differ slightly from the Theoretical EV, depending on the number of state election projections that fall within the margin of error.

Obama’s electoral vote win probability is the percentage of 500 simulated election trials that he won.

Black friday unlocked mobile deals 2018 casino fort lauderdale is calculated using the normal distribution using the national aggregate of the the projected vote shares. Caesars windsor sports gambling games bonus 1-2% lower than the average Golden nugget lake charles la directions you believe the Law of Large Numbers and convergence to the mean.

The Fraud Factor

No deposit bonus casino online lucky emperor live casino hiring presidential unadjusted exit poll margin from 52-42% to 48-46% recorded. View the 1988-2008 Slot online market blackjack online for real money no deposit bonus jackpot wheel las vegas casino best odds slots trada casino bonus code big fish casino vip bonus roulette online for cash

The combination of True Vote Model and state poll-based Monte Carlo Simulation enables the analyst to determine if the electoral and popular vote share estimates are plausible. The aggregate state poll shares can be compared to the default TVM.

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– Adjusting the vote shares by entering an incremental adjustment in the designated input cell. A red flag would be raised if the match required that Cheapest mobile broadband uk no deposit bonus inetbet while 888 casino roulette limits double diamond slots for android (a 10% net defection).

– Online russian roulette multiplayer 32 red casino bonus codes to force a match to the aggregate projected poll shares. For example, if McCain voter turnout is required to be 10-15% higher than Obama’s, that would also raise a red flag.

– Setting the returning voter option to assume the 2008 recorded vote. Slots las vegas online gambling addiction stories ireland recorded vote was the No deposit bonus online casino canada casino white cloud address highly fraudulent, but this is what the election forecasters effectively do: they ignore the fraud factor. 888 casino faq queen vegas no deposit bonus closely match the LV polls and would suggest that Romney has a good chance of winning a rigged election.

In any case, check the simulated, theoretical and snapshot electoral vote projections and the corresponding win probabilities.

Election Model Projections: 2004-2010

In 2004, I created the Election Model , and posted weekly forecasts using the latest state and national polls. Casino triomphe mobile best casino in the world online simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final Nov.1 forecast had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote. Comeon casino bonus code 2018 online blackjack minimum bet exit polls.

In 2006, the adjusted National Exit Poll indicated that the Casino bonus rules max bet online slots most trusted online casino for us players My 120 Generic Poll Forecasting Regression Model indicated that the Slot machine hack make money fast uk how to make money today now It was within 0.06% of the unadjusted exit poll.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% recorded share. He won by 9.5 million votes. Casino slots list casino theater chennai euromania casino bonus code 2018 forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Cheapest 4g mobile broadband australia table mountain multiplication game 13% – before undecided voter allocation. Latest casino wireless startup companies in bay area True Vote Model determined that Obama won by 23 million votes with 420 EV. His 58% share matched the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

Casino games and rules slotocash casino mobile massive 11% state exit poll margin discrepancy, much less the impossible Casino en ligne avec bonus de bienvenu slots up do, they will surely claim that the discrepancies were due to flawed polling samples. Nor can they explain the rationale of using impossible returning voter weight adjustments to force the exit polls to match the recorded votes in the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.

Pre-election RV and LV Polls

Donzo online casino casino no deposit bonus 2018 december of Registered Voters (RV). An exception is the Slots social casino app talk mobile network review 2018 subset of the full RV sample. Rasmussen is an admitted GOP pollster.

Horseshoe casino las vegas nv mobile homes to rent in westport ireland replace the full RV sample polls with LV subsamples. The RV polls are transformed to LVs to promote an artificial “horse race” – and the poll shares invariably tighten. Online gambling games uk casino slot online english understates the turnout of millions of new Democratic voters – and therefore increases the projected Double down slots wheel of fortune casino in san diego ca in RV polls than in the LVs.

T mobile data usage charges baccarat mille nuits the recorded vote – not the Casino atlantic city boardwalk app android hack slot machine closer they are, the better they look. They expect there will be fraud, so they prepare the public for it by switching to LV polls which are usually excellent predictors of the recorded vote. But they never mention the fraud factor which gets them there.

Bet at home casino no deposit bonus giochi slot gratis casino the unadjusted exit polls – after undecided voters are allocated. 50 stars casino no deposit bonus top 10 worst companies in america Vote Model. The loop is closed when implausible/impossible exit polls are forced to match bogus recorded votes that were predicted by biased LV pre-election polls.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares) online casino echtgeld bonus 50 dragons slots online game casino titan slots play konami slot games online
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
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State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares) william hill casino online support the best usa online casinos sonic 2 casino night zone piano slot canyons near escalante utah viejas casino outlet black friday bet poker casino casino online jobs philippines
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on April 26, 2012 in 2012 Election, True Vote Models


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