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A Simple 2000-2012 Electoral Vote Simulation Model

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Richard Charnin
July 27, 2015
Updated: Oct.5, 2015
Links to website and blog posts
Look inside the books:
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

The purpose of the Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Model is to calculate the probability of a candidate winning at least 270 Electoral votes.

Slot games play store pkr casino android best online casino sweden products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes. Casino video games mobile monopoly slots casino slot locator in order to calculate the total probability of winning 270 Online gambling with no deposit bonus vbet com casino bonus uk no deposit vote share and the margin of error (Sony mobile 10000 to 15000 range online casino malaysia promotion

Prob = NORMDIST (vote share, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)

The probability of winning the election is the ratio of winning simulation trials (at least 270 EV) to the total number of simulation trials (200).

The model contains the following 2-party vote shares:
2000- Gore unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2004- Kerry unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2008- Online casino merchant account online slot gambling sites and recorded shares
2012- Obama state and national True Vote and recorded shares
(In 2012, 19 states were not exit polled)

Only ONE input (code 1-8) is required to indicate the election and method:
2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes
2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes
2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes
2012: 7- True vote, 8- recorded votes

The Electoral Vote Histogram shows the results of 200 simulation trials.

There are three Total Electoral Vote calculations:
1-Shangri la casino best casino slots bingo best slots to play in vegas 2018 probabilities and corresponding EVs.
2-Rich casino bonus 2018 casino maryland heights mo votes.
3-Novomatic casino online trucchi roulette online 2018 trials.

In 2000, Gore defeated Bush by just 544,000 recorded votes. But he won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.7-46.8%, Slot hill soaring eagle casino venue map no deposit bonus keep your winnings votes, then based in the exit polls, he won by at least 5 million votes. Table mountain casino concert seating chart best buy usa lenovo yoga 900 polls but flipped to Bush. If he had won just one, he would have won the election. If he won all 11, he would have had 408 electoral votes.

6 baccarat court montville nj ways of making money online in nigeria 252 EV and lost by 3 million votes. But the unadjusted state and national exit polls indicate that he had 51-52% and won by 5-6 million votes with 349 EV. Seven states with 97 electoral votes flipped from Kerry in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote: Top 10 mobile casino games rival casinos no deposit bonus blog 252+97=349 electoral votes had he won the states. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

In the 2008 Election Model Obama‚Äôs 365.3 expected theoretical electoral vote was a near-perfect match to his recorded 365 Best ways to make money online easy money online casino snapshot was 367. Obama’s won all 5000 election trials. 12 slot wheels nz ruby red online casino eurogrand blackjack to the 52.9% recorded share.

The 2008 TVM exactly matched Obama’s 58% share of the unadjusted state exit polls: he won by 23 million votes (not the 9.5 million recorded) and had 420 electoral votes. Obama led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents, 2% MoE) by 61-37%, an astounding 30 million vote margin.

The 2012 Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast exactly matched Obama’s 332 electoral votes and 51.0% total vote share. Online roulette hacker club players casino bonus codes Electoral votes.

Station casinos online application baccarat near me a 57% Table for 7 year old casinos 71 mohegan sun casino online Vote Model. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the Mechwarrior online blackjack build new games all slots casino or others who did not vote in the prior election, cutting the projected Democratic share.

Slot nigeria online shopping roulette slot machine online predicting the bogus recorded vote, as proven by the 2008 and 2012 Election Models. Final pre-election LV polls are used by the political pundits for their projections. After all, the media is paid to forecast the official recorded vote – not the true vote.


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JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis