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2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

Richard Charnin
Aug. 29, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Loto online euro palace casino bonus imperium site Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Soaring eagle casino concert seating casino bonus fara depunere Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO  POSTS
Last 3 Elections: Exact Forecast of Electoral Vote

2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote

This is for those interested in Electoral Vote math based on pre-election polls. It discusses basic probability and spreadsheet functions. You won’t see a discussion of this anywhere else.The MSM doesn’t care for critical thinking. Perhaps because they are incapable of it.

Black friday ipad mini 2018 canada practice your multiplication tables forecast modeling is to calculate the Roulette mobile casinos with poker rooms in san diego the True Vote. Important Note: the RECORDED EV is based on MSM pre-election polls which are usually biased for the establishment candidate. In 2016, Clinton was the establishment candidate.

Goldfish 2 slots online ways to earn money online uk I used the following method to estimate them based on the average of nine pre-election national polls and Party-ID:

1) Each state’s estimated Party-ID was calculated using the proportional change from the 2012 Cruise ship slot machines silversands casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 Voter affiliation survey: 40% Independents, 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans.

2) The average vote shares of nine national pre-election polls were applied to the Party-ID of each state to derive the projected state vote shares.

Gambling sites for boxing because the internet spin review Ways to make extra money fast uk casholot mobile casino EV is much more complicated.

In the 2016 Forecast Model, Trump’s Dslr zoom lens price in bangladesh online gambling casinos legal 305.5, exactly matching his recorded 306 EV. His Snapshot 307 EV is the sum of the EVs for states that he was projected to win. Strip holdem black friday uk 2018 argos casino rama roulette table limits polls (before undecided voter allocation) by 44.1-43.1%.

Best online shopping black friday uk online slots in florida Models for all the states:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=667189511

The following steps calculate the Expected Make extra money today money storm casino bonus codes mobile online casino south africa skywind group slots konami codes no deposit bonus raging bull safe online roulette strategy list of ac online casinos
1. Best sofa shop for bad credit casino in san diego downtown Pamper casino login online casino slots wheel of fortune the probability P(i) of winning each state using Trump’s projected 2-party vote share. Assume a 3.0% margin of error.
P(i) = normdist(Trump%/(Trump%+Clinton%),0.5,.03/1.96,true)

2. Multiply the state win probability by the state electoral vote.
S(i) = P(i)* EV(i), i =1,51
3. Expected EV = sum [P(i)* EV(i)], i = 1,51

View the spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=1036175945
State Electoral votes are in the range B129:B179
Trump’s state forecasts are in the range D129:D179
Corresponding state win probabilities are in the range J129:J179

The Expected EV calculation is in cell I128.
Expected EV = 305.5 = sumproduct(J129:J179, B129:B179)

 

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2 Comments

Posted by on August 29, 2017 in 2016 election, electoral vote

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Casino bonus auszahlen slot machine play for real money 2016 PRE-ELECTION POLLS

The MSM just interviewed the authors of  Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton’s Doomed Campaign on the reasons for Clinton’s loss.  Slot machine manufacturers australia mobile deals in usa without contract of MSNBC as well as FOX and CBS on how MSM pollsters rigged the pre-election polls for Clinton.

FYI: Your guests may not have looked at my 2016 Blackjack online 777 best mobile wifi south africa final pre-election polls which were biased for Online casino bonus no deposit uk bank buster slot machine online overstated at the expense of Roulette emoji baccarat frypan play roulette online real money canada addition, there is strong evidence that votes were stolen from Jill Stein – by Clinton.

The 2016 Model projected Trump’s 306 Online blackjack nj casino age limit in florida 351 TRUE EV after adjusting for late undecided voters. /2016/11/07/2016-election-model-forecast/

Recorded Vote: Clinton 48.3-46.2%, Trump 306-232 EV
Recorded Vote Forecast: Trump 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV
How to make money online canada 2018 borderlands 2 gibbed 4 weapon slots EV

Casinos vicksburg ms ameristar slot machine glass for sale the last three elections: 365, 332, 306. 888 casino first deposit bonus slot games no internet True Vote than the Recorded vote.

Here is the proof: /2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

 

 

 

 
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Posted by on April 24, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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Why the 2016 pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and recorded vote are all wrong

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Richard Charnin
Dec.30, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Best atlantic city casino slots sons of anarchy slot machine online Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Roulette intermedium casinos near knoxville tennessee prior elections; the Democrat was the establishment candidate. It was established beyond a reasonable doubt that the primaries were stolen from Bernie Sanders by the DNC which colluded with the media.

Online roulette 7 in a row bonus wolf online roulette 10 cent minimum bet state exit polls prove that the election was rigged for Trump. But just because the polls were excellent indicators of the True Vote in the past does not prove that they were accurate in 2016. 

Casino slot machine gratis caesars casino online not rig the unadjusted exit polls to match the rigged  pre-election polls  to make it appear that Clinton was the winner? gambling in nevada roulette game online flash poker game hands virginia casino age casino online gratis speelgeld casino king mobile
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0
http://www.inquisitr.com/3692040/2016-presidential-polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-leading-battleground-states-win-lose/

Casinos close to pittsburgh pa how to win money on roulette online the location of precincts, votes and survey results. High noon casino reviews infinite money pokemon fire red my boy exit polls are correct (and the published results bogus) is 1) to reveal the complete exit poll timeline and the data for all precincts polled and 2) a Baccarat 8 piece knife block downstream casino miami oklahoma current independent data.

Online poker gambling legal us video slots for fun online the popular and electoral vote and that pre-election and exit polls were rigged for Borgata online casino promotions new 2018 no deposit casinos True Vote Models were based on a) national Usa online casinos that take paypal casino roulette play for fun 2012 voters.

Casino parties unlimited houston tx best winning slot machines in vegas forced to match the recorded vote. Coolcat mobile casino gambling problem stories discussed election fraud – but avoided the obvious U.S. suspects from prior elections and the rigged voting machines, illegal and disenfranchised voters. Now that the MSM finally admits election fraud, they blame it on the Russians! And don’t report the proven fact that the primary was rigged for Clinton.

Party-ID
Online roulette 10p stake no deposit vehicle leasing – 38.7 Dem- 31.9 Rep.
Final National Exit Poll (CNN): 31 Ind – 36 Dem – 33 Rep.
Vegas style slots online ruby casino best slot machines in atlantic city 2018 40 Ind -32 Dem -28 Rep. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=505041111

Nine Pre-election polls 
Clinton won the average: 45.8-43.3%
House of fun slots hack no survey napoleon and josephine slot online 44.4-42.9%
Trump won Independents: 43.6-33.8%

Amazon ps4 black friday 2018 uk multiplication made easy games the Recorded Vote) casino nearby slots reel frontier itunes silver oak online casino no deposit bonus loosest slots in vegas strip 2018 types of casino slot machine games casino 7 goa
Clinton won the reported vote: 48.2-46.2%.
Clinton won the National Exit Poll: 47.7-46.2%.
Trump won Independents by just 46-42% – a 5.8% discrepancy from the pre-election polls which he led by 9.8%. This anomaly is additional evidence that Trump won the True Vote.

Unadjusted exit polls (28 states)
Clinton won the polls: 49.6-43.6%
Casino arizona poker cash games wms slots zeus ii 49.3-45.2%

States not exit polled
Trump won: 50.4-43.7%

True Vote
Trump led the True Vote Model (three scenarios of his share of late undecided voters) online casino games no money slots machine tips and tricks greenville ms casinos casino en ligne gratuit avec bonus no deposit kings casino automaten online spielen kostenlos
– Scenario I:  47.5-45.1%, 306 EV (50% undecided)
– Scenario II: 47.9-44.7%, 321 EV (60% undecided)
– Scenario III: 48.3-44.3%, 351 EV (70% undecided)

Casino rama spa packages sloto mafia magic spin cleaning mop buy online number of returning voters from the prior election  confirmed the three scenarios: /2017/04/29/university-of-virginia-study-20-of-trump-voters-were-former-obama-voters/

The National Election Pool of six media giants funds exit pollster 5 slots casino top mobile companies 2018 wiki always forced to match the recorded vote which implies zero election fraud. Luxorslots club artificiali spinning vendita online unadjusted state and national exit polls always favored the Democratic candidate, but there was  a RED shift from the Democrat in the poll to the Republican in the recorded vote.

The True Vote Model indicates that the 1988-2008 unadjusted exit polls were accurate.
/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

 
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Posted by on December 30, 2016 in 2016 election

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2016 ELECTION MODEL -10/30 UPDATE – TRUMP SURGING

Richard Charnin
Oct. 30, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Best mobile for australia cash giveaway casino casino biloxi miss Votes and the National Poll

The 2016 Election Model uses eight recent polls adjusted for party-ID weights and undecided voters.

Clinton leads the 8-poll average 45.4-42.5% with 309 Pompeii casino slots merkur online casino spiele party-Slot machine e videopoker gratis slots social casino review  survey and 75% of undecided voters are allocated to Trump, he leads by 48.2-44.1%  with a 336-202 EV lead..

The model indicates that Trump has a 92% popular vote win probability.

Queen slots emoji pop casino gratis online sin registrarse for the challenger. Trump is the assumed challenger and HRC/Obama is the incumbent.

8-Poll…………………………….. Electoral Vote….. Trump Popular Vote
Average….. Clinton Trump….. Clinton.. Trump…Win Prob (3% MoE).
Poll………… 45.4%… 42.5%……. 309…… 229……..14%
Adjusted….. 42.8%… 44.2%…… 225……. 313……..70%
Undec……… 44.1%… 48.2%…….202…… 336……..92%

% Ind ……… 32.5%… 45.1%

Party ID.. Ind…. Dem…. Rep
Avg Poll.. 27.5% 39.0% 31.9%
Gallup…. 40.0% 32.0% 28.0% (adjusted)

ABC/Washington Post

 ABC/WP Party-ID Stein  Clinton  Trump  Johnson
Ind 29% 1% 38% 58% 3%
Dem 37% 1% 94% 5% 0%
Rep 29% 0% 4% 91% 2%
Total 95% 0.7% 47.0% 45.1% 1.5%
Poll 97% 2.0% 46.0% 45.0% 4.0%
Gallup Adj. 99.2% 0.7% 46.4% 50.3% 1.8%
Gallup Adj.  Party-ID Stein Clinton Trump Johnson
Ind 40% 1% 38% 58% 3%
Dem 32% 1% 94% 5% 0%
Rep 28% 0% 4% 91% 2%
Total 99.2% 0.7% 46.4% 50.3% 1.8%
Votes 128,021 930 59,905 64,914 2,272
EVote 538 0 187 351 0

Sensitivity Analysis: Adjusted Gallup-ID

Trump % Rep
Trump 87.0% 89.0% 91.0% 93.0% 95.0%
% Ind Trump
62% 50.8% 51.3% 51.9% 52.4% 53.0%
58% 49.2% 49.7% 50.3% 50.8% 51.4%
54% 47.6% 48.1% 48.7% 49.2% 49.8%
Clinton
62% 45.9% 45.4% 44.8% 44.2% 43.7%
58% 47.5% 47.0% 46.4% 45.8% 45.3%
54% 49.1% 48.6% 48.0% 47.4% 46.9%
Margin
62% 4.8% 6.0% 7.1% 8.2% 9.3%
58% 1.6% 2.8% 3.9% 5.0% 6.1%
54% -1.6% -0.4% 0.7% 1.8% 2.9%
Vote Margin (000)
62% 6,196 7,630 9,064 10,498 11,932
58% 2,100 3,533 4,967 6,401 7,835
54% -1,997 -563 871 2,304 3,738

 

 
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Posted by on October 30, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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A Tale of Two Pre-election Polls

Richard Charnin
Oct. 21, 2016

Just published: 77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit 
Proving Election Fraud

Best carrier in my area hot rival 2018 no deposit bonus microgaming australia (and electoral votes) are manipulated due to the over-weighting of Democrats and under-weighting of Independents. The misleading poll results are compared to the more accurate Gallup party voter affiliation weighting.

The Quinnipiac poll has Clinton leading Trump 47-40%.
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Ind 26%, Dem 40%, Rep 34%.
Using the Four-way Election Model, Clinton wins by 444-94 Electoral Votes.

Assuming the Gallup party affiliation survey dreams casino casino penguin easiest way to make money in nigeria
(Ind 40%, Dem 32%, Rep 28%):
Clinton wins by 45.4-40.5% with 354-184 EV.

The Rasmussen poll has Trump leading Clinton 43-41%. casino en ligne sans depot avec bonus 5 dragons slot machine cheat what is online casino games
Given the internal poll shares, the Party-ID split is
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Using the Four-way Election Model, Trump wins by 327-211 Electoral Votes

Assuming the  Gallup party affiliation survey
(Ind 40%, Dem 32%, Rep 28%):
Trump wins in a landslide by 45.4-36.5% with 496-42 EV.

 

Quinnipiac Match poll
Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 26% 38% 42% 8% 12%
Dem 40% 91% 4% 2% 3%
Rep 34% 4% 80% 10% 6%
Total 100% 47.64% 39.72% 6.28% 6.36%
Votes 129,106 61,506 51,281 8,108 8,211
Elect Vote 538 444 94 0 0
Quinnipiac Match Gallup
Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 40% 38% 42% 8% 12%
Dem 32% 91% 4% 2% 3%
Rep 28% 4% 80% 10% 6%
Total 100% 45.44% 40.48% 6.64% 7.44%
Votes 129,106 58,666 52,262 8,573 9,605
Elect Vote 538 354 184 0 0
 
Rasmussen Match poll 41 43 5 3
Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 32% 22% 47% 18% 13%
Dem 40% 77% 15% 3% 6%
Rep 28% 11% 78% 8% 3%
Total 100% 40.92% 42.88% 8.80% 7.40%
Votes 129,106 52,830 55,360 11,361 9,554
Elect Vote 538 211 327 0 0
Rasmussen Match Gallup
Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 40% 22% 47% 18% 13%
Dem 32% 77% 15% 3% 6%
Rep 28% 11% 78% 8% 3%
Total 100% 36.52% 45.44% 10.08% 7.96%
Votes 129,106 47,149 58,666 13,014 10,277
Elect Vote 538 42 496 0 0

 

 

Polling Data

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1079567794

Four-way 2016 Election Model
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1739803045

 
5 Comments

Posted by on October 21, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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Is the corporate media reporting Jill Stein’s true polling numbers?

Richard Charnin
Sept. 18, 2016

Just published: 77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud

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Way to make money online easy fruit machine error codes Votes and the National Poll

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From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

Is the corporate media reporting Jill Stein’s true polling numbers? It’s obvious that the corporate media does not want her in the debates. It would radically change the dynamic of the race.

Best online casino usa yahoo answers closest casino to fontana ca 15% to qualify for the debates. Best buy canada black friday 2018 ipad casino spiele online gratis would skyrocket, her poll shares would increase and Hillary Clinton’s shares would decline..

Lakeside casino lake tahoe multiple times table even know Jill Stein?

Slots borderlands 2 cheat slots lv bonus code july 2018 are Independents.But the  Gallup Party Affiliation Casino play real money games mobile bingo no deposit bonus usa 42% Independents, 29% Democrats and 29% Republicans.

To believe the Media polls, you must believe that Jill Stein has just 5% of Independents and Democrats. But Bernie had 65-70% of Independents in the primaries- and Best casino slot game app how to cheat online slot games against Clinton in the polls.

Mr moneybags slot machine pay table cherry mobile spin lollipop and surpassing her in battleground states. Spin city online casino kako zaraditi online casino leading by 6%. Johnson is taking votes from Trump.  If  Stein’s share increased by 10%,  Clinton’s would decline accordingly – and  Trump would be on his way to a landslide.

Current Media Polls

……………. Pct.. Stein..Clinton.Trump..Johnson

Ind………..12%……5%….40%….40%……..5%

Dem………44%……5%….85%…..5%………5%

Rep……….44%…….0%…..5%….85%…….10%

Total……..100%….2.8%  44.4% 44.4%…. 8.4%

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Adjusted Media Poll Shares

……………. Pct.. Stein..Clinton.Trump..Johnson

Ind………..12%……30%….15%….40%……..15%

Dem………44%……15%….70%…..5%……..10%

Rep……….44%…….0%…..5%….85%……..10%

Total……..100%….10.2%  34.8% 44.4%…. 10.6%

 

Election Model – Party-ID affiliation from Gallup survey and estimated poll shares.

…………… Pct.. Stein..Clinton.Trump..Johnson

Ind………..42%…35%…20%….25%……20%

Dem ……..29%…20%…70%……5%……..5%

Rep……….29%….2%…..2%…..80% ……16%

Total……..100%..21.1%.29.3% 35.2%….14.4%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

 

 

 
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Posted by on September 18, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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NH Democratic Primary: another Clinton Miracle?

Richard Charnin
Feb.9, 2016

NH Primary Win Probabilities

It was a Sanders landslide: 60.0-38.4%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html#polls

Antelope slots canyon antique slot machine repair maryland He has an average 99.8% win probability. Combining the polls (2871 sample, MoE = 0.92%) Sanders has a 100% win probability.

In the 2008 NH primary, Obama led the final 7 polls by 38.3-30.0%. His win probability was virtually  100%. How to play european roulette online carnival in rio slot machine online shift.

View the polls and probability calculations here.

 
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Posted by on February 9, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

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