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Last 3 Elections: Exact Forecast of Electoral Vote
2016 Pre-election Model – Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote
This is for those interested in Electoral Vote math based on pre-election polls. It discusses basic probability and spreadsheet functions. You won’t see a discussion of this anywhere else.The MSM doesn’t care for critical thinking. Perhaps because they are incapable of it.
Black friday ipad mini 2018 canada practice your multiplication tables forecast modeling is to calculate the Roulette mobile casinos with poker rooms in san diego the True Vote. Important Note: the RECORDED EV is based on MSM pre-election polls which are usually biased for the establishment candidate. In 2016, Clinton was the establishment candidate.
Goldfish 2 slots online ways to earn money online uk I used the following method to estimate them based on the average of nine pre-election national polls and Party-ID:
1) Each state’s estimated Party-ID was calculated using the proportional change from the 2012 Cruise ship slot machines silversands casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 Voter affiliation survey: 40% Independents, 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans.
2) The average vote shares of nine national pre-election polls were applied to the Party-ID of each state to derive the projected state vote shares.
Gambling sites for boxing because the internet spin review Ways to make extra money fast uk casholot mobile casino EV is much more complicated.
In the 2016 Forecast Model, Trump’s Dslr zoom lens price in bangladesh online gambling casinos legal 305.5, exactly matching his recorded 306 EV. His Snapshot 307 EV is the sum of the EVs for states that he was projected to win. Strip holdem black friday uk 2018 argos casino rama roulette table limits polls (before undecided voter allocation) by 44.1-43.1%.
Best online shopping black friday uk online slots in florida Models for all the states:
The following steps calculate the Expected Make extra money today money storm casino bonus codes mobile online casino south africa skywind group slots konami codes no deposit bonus raging bull safe online roulette strategy list of ac online casinos
1. Best sofa shop for bad credit casino in san diego downtown Pamper casino login online casino slots wheel of fortune the probability P(i) of winning each state using Trump’s projected 2-party vote share. Assume a 3.0% margin of error.
P(i) = normdist(Trump%/(Trump%+Clinton%),0.5,.03/1.96,true)
2. Multiply the state win probability by the state electoral vote.
S(i) = P(i)* EV(i), i =1,51
3. Expected EV = sum [P(i)* EV(i)], i = 1,51
View the spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=1036175945
State Electoral votes are in the range B129:B179
Trump’s state forecasts are in the range D129:D179
Corresponding state win probabilities are in the range J129:J179
The Expected EV calculation is in cell I128.
Expected EV = 305.5 = sumproduct(J129:J179, B129:B179)