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ELECTION MODEL VS. RECORDED VOTE

Richard Charnin
Nov.9, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Pretty kitty 888 casino keeps popping up casinos in louisiana Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

The 2016 Election Model  forecast exactly matched the 306-232  electoral vote – just like it did in 2008 and 2012. But  Obama did much better in the True Vote.  Slots vegas casino promotions new player gossip slots no deposit bonus august 2018 the post:  2016 Election Model Forecast

Final poll and recorded votes shares
Clinton 47.7, Trump 47.5, Johnson 3.3, Stein 1.0 vip room casino no deposit bonus codes treasure island casino players club casino spellen online gratis top mobile companies 2018 wikipedia online casino pakistan latest casino bonus no deposit bonus igt slots for android tablet
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Before Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA):
Vote………..Clinton….Trump…..Margin…..Evote
Model………..42.9%…..44.4%…..1.5%…….306
Model………..45.4%…..46.9%…..1.5%…….306 (adjust to 100%)
Recorded……47.7%…..47.5%…..-0.2%……306

75% UVA to Trump:
Model………..44.3%…..48.5%…..4.2%…….351
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Trump wins the EM by 1.5%.
Clinton wins the NEP by 0.4% (forced to match the recorded vote). 

Forecast vs. Actual 

Election Model Gallup Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Democrats 32% 89% 6% 2% 1%
Republicans 28% 5% 89% 3% 1%
Independents 40% 32.6% 43.9% 8.0% 5.0%
Total 94.6% 42.9% 44.4% 4.7% 2.6%
Total-100% 100.0% 45.4% 46.9% 4.9% 2.7%
Electoral Vote   232 306  
National Exit Poll  Pct Clinton Trump Other
Democrats 36.5% 89% 9% 2%
Republicans 32.5% 7% 90% 3%
Independents 31.0% 42% 48% 10%
Total 100.0% 47.8% 47.4% 4.8%
Electoral Vote   232 306

Election Model: Track Record
Exact EV forecast:
2008: Obama 365
2012: Obama 332
2016: Trump 306

 But the recorded votes were fraudulent.
They won the TRUE VOTE by much more…
2008: Obama 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV
2012: Obama 55.2%, 380 EV dragonara casino malta online borgata atlantic city poker tournaments best buy canada black friday ps4
2016: Trump 48.5-44.3%%, 351 EV ( 75% UVA to Trump):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president

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Posted by on November 9, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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2016 ELECTION MODEL -10/30 UPDATE – TRUMP SURGING

Richard Charnin
Oct. 30, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

The 2016 Election Model uses eight recent polls adjusted for party-ID weights and undecided voters.

Clinton leads the 8-poll average 45.4-42.5% with 309 S&h casino slots 50 lions slot slot machine jackpot winners las vegas party-Cheap mobile carriers australia new casino kennewick washington  survey and 75% of undecided voters are allocated to Slot machine player demographics birthday bonus online casino EV lead..

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8-Poll…………………………….. Electoral Vote….. Trump Popular Vote
Average….. Clinton Trump….. Clinton.. Trump…Win Prob (3% MoE).
Poll………… 45.4%… 42.5%……. 309…… 229……..14%
Adjusted….. 42.8%… 44.2%…… 225……. 313……..70%
Undec……… 44.1%… 48.2%…….202…… 336……..92%

% Ind ……… 32.5%… 45.1%

Party ID.. Ind…. Dem…. Rep harveys casino south lake tahoe nevada no deposit poker bonuses 2018 online slots win real money reviews
Avg Poll.. 27.5% 39.0% 31.9%
Gallup…. 40.0% 32.0% 28.0% (adjusted)

ABC/Washington Post

 ABC/WP Party-ID Stein  Clinton  Trump  Johnson
Ind 29% 1% 38% 58% 3%
Dem 37% 1% 94% 5% 0%
Rep 29% 0% 4% 91% 2%
Total 95% 0.7% 47.0% 45.1% 1.5%
Poll 97% 2.0% 46.0% 45.0% 4.0%
Gallup Adj. 99.2% 0.7% 46.4% 50.3% 1.8%
Gallup Adj.  Party-ID Stein Clinton Trump Johnson
Ind 40% 1% 38% 58% 3%
Dem 32% 1% 94% 5% 0%
Rep 28% 0% 4% 91% 2%
Total 99.2% 0.7% 46.4% 50.3% 1.8%
Votes 128,021 930 59,905 64,914 2,272
EVote 538 0 187 351 0

Sensitivity Analysis: Adjusted Gallup-ID

Trump % Rep
Trump 87.0% 89.0% 91.0% 93.0% 95.0%
% Ind Trump
62% 50.8% 51.3% 51.9% 52.4% 53.0%
58% 49.2% 49.7% 50.3% 50.8% 51.4%
54% 47.6% 48.1% 48.7% 49.2% 49.8%
Clinton
62% 45.9% 45.4% 44.8% 44.2% 43.7%
58% 47.5% 47.0% 46.4% 45.8% 45.3%
54% 49.1% 48.6% 48.0% 47.4% 46.9%
Margin
62% 4.8% 6.0% 7.1% 8.2% 9.3%
58% 1.6% 2.8% 3.9% 5.0% 6.1%
54% -1.6% -0.4% 0.7% 1.8% 2.9%
Vote Margin (000)
62% 6,196 7,630 9,064 10,498 11,932
58% 2,100 3,533 4,967 6,401 7,835
54% -1,997 -563 871 2,304 3,738

 

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Posted by on October 30, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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