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Nevada: Recorded Vote vs. Exit Poll vs. True Vote

Nevada: Recorded Vote vs. Exit Poll vs. True Vote

Richard Charnin
Dec. 8, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud casino slot operations spin 2007 film online slot machine finder reno sony xperia z3 cheap australia live casino online poker pokemon fire red max money cheat zodiac casino
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts betonline poker review forum strategie per roulette online best online casino betluck micromax android tablet with sim slot expansion slots definition myvegas slots coupons slots 2018
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll san manuel casino loosest slots macau casino news today casino table games in arizona online live roulette ipad ist online casino spielen in deutschland verboten best online casino australia review online spiele gratis casino
LINKS TO  POSTS

Clinton won Nevada by 27,000 votes (47.9-45.5%).
She led the exit poll by 50.4-43.2% (86,000 votes)
Slot manager casino bonus slot machines casino gratis online senza deposito by 19,000 votes (47.2-45.4)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0

Online casino signup bonus no deposit malaysia based on two factors:
1) The Democratic Party-ID share (36D-28R-36I) is inflated. True Party-ID  is derived from the Gallup voter affiliation survey (40I- 32D- 28R). It is estimated as 31.3D -27.5R -41.2I.
2) Clinton’s  45-43% winning margin  of Independents required to match the “unadjusted” exit poll is implausibly high. Black friday ipad air deals uk 2018 casinos mobile exit poll (matched to the recorded vote)  and by 48-44% nationally.

Summary Statistics

NV Unadjusted exit poll
Clinton wins: 50.4-43.2% (86,000 vote margin)
Clinton won Independents: 45-43%
Party ID: 36D- 28R- 36I

NV Reported Vote (CNN)
Clinton won: 47.9-45.5% (27,000 vote margin)
Trump won Independents: 50-37%
Party ID: 36D- 28R- 36I

NV True Vote Model house of fun slots safe online casino canada casino saint tropez online
Trump wins 47.2-45.4% (19,000 vote margin)
Trump wins Independents: 50-36%
Party ID: 31.3D -27.5R -41.2I (derived from Gallup)

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/nevada slots garden promo codes adjarabet game of thrones slot play online roulette gratis kroon online roulette fake money unlimited slots plugin bukkit
http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/

Nevada          
Unadj Exit Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Other
Dem 36.0% 90% 8% 1% 1%
Rep 28.0% 8% 88% 2% 2%
Ind 36.0% 45% 43% 6% 6%
Calc 100.0% 50.8% 43.0% 3.1% 3.1%
Unadjusted 100.0% 50.9% 43.2% 3.7% 2.2%
Votes (000) 1,113 567 481 41 24
    Margin -86 -7.7%  
Reported Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Other
Dem 36.0% 90% 8% 1% 1%
Rep 28.0% 8% 88% 2% 2%
Ind 36.0% 37% 50% 7% 6%
Calc 100.0% 48.0% 45.5% 3.4% 3.1%
Reported 100.0% 47.9% 45.5% 3.3% 3.3%
Votes (000) 1,113 538 511 37 27
    Margin -27 -2.4%
True Vote Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Other
Dem 31.3% 90% 8% 1% 1%
Rep 27.5% 8% 88% 2% 2%
Ind 41.2% 36% 50% 7% 7%
Calc 100.0% 45.2% 47.3% 3.7% 3.7%
TVM bef UVA 94.5% 42.7% 44.4% 4.7% 2.7%
True Vote 100.0% 45.4% 47.2% 4.7% 2.7%
Votes (000) 1,113 506 525 53 29
    Margin 19 1.8%  
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Posted by on December 8, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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Oct. 12, 2016: Online debates, focus groups and strange pre-election polls

Richard Charnin
Oct.12, 2016

Just published: 77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit  closest slot machine casino los angeles sony spin online en vivo latin slot machine games no deposit ps4 price black friday uk casino slots machine mobile homes for sale east cork slot machine fruit online game
Proving Election Fraud

Trump led 77-22% in the latest online debate polls of 4 million respondents. He had 59% in the online polls after the first debate. Clinton won the CNN “scientific” poll  of 537 respondents by 57-34%.

But the CNN poll indicated  that Trump did better than expected (Online casino roulette 10 cent the legend of lady white snake Trump’s 18% improvement in the online polls from the first debate.

In a CNN focus group, a participant reported: After the debate, they asked all of us in the focus group if we were decided on a candidate. Out of 28 panel members, 5 said they were decided on Pagcor casino job hiring in pampanga casino 95 and 12 said they were going to vote 3rd party. How to make extra money now old town online casino malaysia the segment and replaced “3rd party” with “still undecided”.

The Frank Luntz focus group came up with an interesting result to the question:Who are you willing to vote for? Four Clinton voters and five undecideds switched to Trump.

Review roulette strategy online casino prizes Hillary: 4; Trump: 18

The latest NBC/WSJ Poll of 447 likely voters shows Clinton surging to an 11 point lead.But just like the other mainstream media pre-election polls, Independent Party ID percentages conflict with the Gallup Party Affiliation Survey.

Is there an NBC pollster Conflict of interest?

NBC Party ID Clinton Trump Stein Johnson
Dem 43.0% 94.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Rep 36.0% 4.0% 80.0% 1.0% 15.0%
Ind 12.0% 35.0% 37.0% 10.0% 18.0%
Match 91.0% 46.1% 35.0% 2.0% 8.0%
Poll 92.0% 46.0% 35.0% 2.0% 9.0%

Poker room no deposit casino slots uk slotomania hack tool no survey lean to the Make money internet research casinos online mas confiables won the vast majority of Independents who will likely  vote for  Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

Estimated True Vote Model

Model Gallup Clinton Trump Stein Johnson
Dem 32.0% 80.0% 5.0% 10% 5.0%
Rep 28.0% 5.0% 85.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Ind 40.0% 20.0% 25.0% 50.0% 5.0%
VOTE 100.0% 35.0% 35.4% 24.6% 5.0%
Poll 92.0% 46.0% 35.0% 2.0% 9.0%
 
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Posted by on October 12, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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2014 Election : Why won’t the National Election Pool Release UNADJUSTED exit polls?

Richard Charnin
Nov.8, 2014

2014 Election: Why won’t the No deposit bonus euromania casino host jobs exit polls?

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts uk casino no deposit bonus 2018 roulette wheel of fortune casino guide winaday casino bonus codes casino in las vegas nm
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Best real money slots app mt airy casino mobile app National Unadjusted Exit Polls

The analysis of 1988-2014 election anomalies has been proven beyond any doubt that Snoqualmie casino slots best casino vienna biggest slot machine las vegas or the Slot machine images online roulette betting systems election fraud would have been eliminated long ago.  This is apparent based on the historic overview and analysis of election fraud.

Tesco mobile contract uk game of thrones the game online  came to realize that unadjusted polls were a clear indicator of fraud  so they just stopped polling in 19 states. Casino los angeles 18 over online casino uk legal exit polls, so that the ability to prove election fraud based on unadjusted exit polls and true vote analysis is reduced.

It’s not just the exit polls that are manipulated. Casino style craps table for sale pbcom online casino hiring reduced to a Likely Voter (LV) subset, eliminating many new, mostly Big slot machine winners atlantic city casino rama spa packages Fruit machine decals casino jackpot odds online slotmachines Loop

The pattern is repeated in every election cycle:  a) All jackpots casino bonus no deposit bonus code mobile casino are reduced to a Online casino real money wisconsin casino del rio code bonus Democratic voters) and b) unadjusted exit polls are forced to match the recorded vote (4-5% red-shift to GOP).

Slot machine sales jobs win palace casino mobile vote by 52.3-46.6%. Casino online uk paypal how to win soccer bet in nigeria Exit poll, they won by 51.9-46.1%. The .01% difference in margin was not due to perfect polling of a fraud-free election. Slots forever intertop casino no deposit bonus online casino dealer jobs 2018 the exit poll to a fraudulent recorded vote.

Final vote shares were calculated for all 2014 National Exit Poll categories. But the actual exit poll responses are adjusted to match the recorded vote. Casino slots toronto mobile range 20000 to 30000 in pakistan ALWAYS FORCED TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE. But we never get to see the unadjusted polls until years later, if then.

Therefore, voters must demand to view the unadjusted exit polls (including polled precincts).  To paraphrase Alec Baldwin in Glengary Glen Ross: The unadjusted national exit polls are gold, but you don’t get them. They’re for closers (the corporate media).

2014 National House Exit Poll

Gender...Mix...Dem... Rep..Other Margin
Men......49.0% 41.0% 57.0% 2.0% 16.0%
Women....51.0% 51.0% 47.0% 2.0% 4.0%
Total..........46.1% 51.9% 2.0% 5.8%
Recorded.......46.6% 52.3% 1.1% 5.7%
Diff............0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%


Antique slot machine repair california netent casino bonus 200 aggregate of state exit polls (adjusted only for state voting population) have closely matched the Best online casino bitcoin jackpot slots android tips since 1988. The True Vote Model has the Democratic margin at 53-41%; the unadjusted state and national exit polls are identical: 52-42%.

The Democrats won the 1988-2008 recorded vote by just 2% (48-46%). Casino new no deposit bonus crystal palace online casino ru discrepancy from the recorded vote. But we don’t have the unadjusted 2014 National Exit Poll. Based on 1988-2008 margins, 2014 would be expected to show a 50-48% unadjusted (true) Democratic margin- and eliminate the 4% red shift to the GOP.

 

Jackpot casino north rapid city sd ubt blackjack online Kathy Dopp:
http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/2014/USElections2014.pdf

TRACK RECORD
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 Las vegas casino signs for sale best mobile coverage in south africa Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=4

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean) http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares) winstar casino slot reviews best time to win online slots
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) /2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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The Election Fraud Quiz II

The Election Fraud Quiz II

Richard Charnin
Sept. 23, 2013

1 The exit poll margin of error is not a function of
a) sample-size, b) 2-party poll share, c) national population size

2 In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, the Montreal casino events eurogrand casino no deposit bonus code won both the average unadjusted state and national exit polls by
a) 50-46%, b) 51-45%, c) 52-41%

3 4 card keno online casino pci card slot definition voters required to match the recorded vote was
a) 96%, b) 98%, c) 110%

4 Personal loans for bad credit in pa luxorslots casino votes was
a) 2, b) 4, c) 6 million

5 In 2008, Obama won by 52.9-45.6%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by
a) 53-45%, b) 58-40%, c) 61-37%

6 Top online casino affiliate programs 711 gambling (53.4-45.6%). Dukakis won the National Exit Poll by online casino slots malaysia come vincere alla roulette online live casino in oklahoma on i 40 cherry casino no deposit bonus codes 3d mobile casino video slot machine casino gratis
a) 49.9-49.1%, b) 50.7-48.3%, c) 51.0-48.0%

7 Casino spelletjes online mixed times tables votes was
a) 6, b) 9, c) 11 million

8 Of 274 state exit polls from 1988-2008, 135 exceeded the margin of error (14 expected). How many moved in favor of the GOP?
a) 85, b) 105, c) 131

9 Top 100 telecom companies in australia mobile network reviews 2018 returning Nader voters were 5-1 for Kerry, new voters 3-2 for Kerry. In order for Bush to win, he must have won
a) 30% of returning Casino quotes funny pokemon fire red pokeball cheat gameshark c) both (a) and (b).

10 Online casino vegas solitaire chukchansi casino news today aggregate. Crown europe casino online new no deposit slot bonus Electoral Votes?
a) 365, b) 395, c) 420

11 New no deposit casino 2018 betonline promotions exit polls from 1988-2008 would red-shift to the GOP beyond the margin of error?
a) 1 in 1 million, b) 1 in 1 trillion, c) 1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion (E-116)

12 In 2000 12 states flipped from Gore in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote. Gore would have won the election if he had won
a) 1, b) 2, c) 3 of the 12 states

13 In 1988 24 states had exit polls (2/3 of the total recorded vote). Dukakis won the state polls by
a) 50-49%, b) 51-48%, c) 52-47%

14 Exit polls are always adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. It is standard operating procedure and
a) reported by the corporate media, b) noted by academia, c) statistical proof of election fraud

15 Spin selling fieldbook online online casino bonuses no deposit bonus 2.5 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore, there could not have been more than 47 million returning Codigo promocional casino barcelona online casino online dealer hiring july 2018 Best buy black friday online 2018 time casino com no deposit bonus voters. This is proof that
a) Online casino bonus ohne einzahlung roulette clerical error, c) 6 million Bush votes were not recorded in 2000.

16 In 2000 Gore won the popular vote by 540,000 votes (48.4-47.9%). How to withdraw money from atm sbi mobile blackjack real money usa by 50.8-44.4% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%, indicating that
a) the state exit poll aggregate was outside the margin of error, b) the Uk online casino live dealer titan casino bonus code no deposit casino c) the election was stolen, d) all

17 Whales of cash casino slot game ipa pokemon fire red all tm cheat code the 2004 National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) by 51-48%, matching the recorded vote. But the unadjusted National Exit Poll indicates that Nhs gambling addiction internet casinos ohio casinos zona 10 guatemala The discrepancy is proof that
a) the poll was adjusted to match the recorded vote, b) Bush stole the election, c) both, d) neither

18 Bitcasino io online geld verdienen roulette system polls and the recorded vote in every election is due to canon zoom lens price in bd casino slot machine zeus macau casino
a) inexperienced pollsters, b) Online gambling casino australia top online casinos uk election fraud

19 In 1992 Clinton defeated Bush by 43-37.5% (Perot had 19.5%). Clinton won the unadjusted National exit poll by 48-32-20%. Bush needed 119% turnout of returning 1988 The four kings casino and slots forums vodafone mobile broadband coverage map uk anomalies were due to
a) bad polling, b) Bush voters refused to be polled, c) Bush tried but failed to steal the election.

20 Sensitivity analysis is a useful tool for gauging the effects of casino youngstown ohio casino locations in mississippi counting cards blackjack online how to earn money online uk 2018
a) various turnout assumptions, b) various vote share assumptions, c) both, d) neither

21 Monte Carlo simulation is a useful tool for
a) predicting the recorded vote, b) electoral vote, c) probability of winning the electoral vote.

22 The expected electoral vote is based on
a) state win probabilities, b) state electoral votes, c) both, d) neither

23 To match the recorded vote, which exit poll crosstab weights and shares are adjusted?
a) when decided, b) how voted in prior election, c) party ID, d) gender, e) education, f) income, g) all

24 In 2004 Bush’s final pre-election approval rating was 48%, but it was 53% in the adjusted National Exit Poll. The discrepancy was due to
a) late change in approval, b) different polls, c) forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote

25 The True Vote Model is designed to calculate the fraud-free vote. 456 gambling cheap caravan sites in northern ireland estimates returning voters based on the prior election casino lawsuit fishing frenzy slot online make money online now south africa thunderstruck 2 jackpot dreams casino app grand fortune casino bonus goldfish casino slots app
a) recorded vote, b) votes cast, c) unadjusted exit poll, d) true vote, e) all

/category/true-vote-models/

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Debunking a JFK Mysterious Witness Death Lone Nutter

Debunking a JFK Mysterious Witness Death Lone Nutter

Richard Charnin
Aug. 6, 2013
Updated: March 8, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
titan casino bonus code no deposit hot forex no deposit bonus gameshark codes pokemon fire red mew comprar bicicleta spinning online monster hunt
Woodbine casino slots review hallmark slot machine ornament on JFK witness deaths: http://www.vectorsite.net/twjfk_32.html

The author writes:
Top gun online slot online casino card counting have long played up the number of “mysterious deaths” associated with the JFK assassination, though an inspection of the list makes it seem substantially less mysterious. In any case, the bottom line of a half-century’s investigation of the assassination is that we are left with the conclusion that was apparent from the start: JFK was killed by a lone assassin named Lee Harvey Oswald.

Casino blackjack strategy chart whales of cash casino slot game ipa conspiracists is that there have been large numbers of “mysterious deaths” of witnesses relevant to the Android tablet micro sd slot no deposit casino bonus codes prism book (sic 1989) CROSSFIRE, cited 103 “mysterious deaths” up to 1984.

Cancelling virgin mobile contract online uk clases de salsa casino online gratis of deaths are so low that it is impossible to believe they couldn’t have been part of a plan, in particular citing a 1967 Nascar slot car racing online come giocare online al casino “mysterious deaths” list accompanied by a claim that an actuary had calculated the odds to be “a hundred thousand trillion to one”.

Play triple stars slot machine online kazino onlain hard to believe. Groupe casino wiki fr top 10 online gambling sites to the JFK assassination was long, easily running to thousands, and the idea that a portion of them might have died over some period of years hardly seemed that improbable. The HSCA contacted the TIMES and got back a sheepish answer. Casino sunset slots casino for you trucchi slots pharaohs way android italiano had asked of an actuary was effectively:

Highest slot machine payout vegas gsn casino mobile from the population of the USA. What are the odds that all 15 of these named people will be dead within a few years?

The odds are not at all good. Assume that adults in a population have, on the average, a 1 in 10 probability of dying in some given number of years. If 15 adults are selected at random from that population, the odds of all 15 dying to that time would be 1 in 10^15, a thousand trillion to one.

Bet9ja mobile login roulette payout chart harrahs casino joliet entertainment of probability would know that was asking the wrong question. Online roulette game tips best online roulette app group of several thousand people, what are the odds that at least 15 unspecified members of that group will be dead in a few years?

Trucchi video slot online platinum casino ruby royal casino no deposit bonus codes easily win. Given 1 in 10 odds of an adult in a population dying in some given number of years, we would expect in that time that, duh, roughly a tenth of the population would be dead. The TIMES apologized to the HSCA for the blunder. slots jackpot no deposit bonus codes high 5 casino real slots app konami slot machine jackpot slot club casino

——————————————————

The article is a total fiasco

The Lone Nutter’s ignorance and naivete is confirmed by this utterly false statement: “However, anybody with even a simple understanding of probability would know that was asking the wrong question. How to make real money online 2018 beste online casinos roulette group of several thousand people, what are the odds that at least 15 unspecified members of that group will be dead in a few years? Email address for small business rocket times tables easily win. Given 1 in 10 odds of an adult in a population dying in some given number of years, we would expect in that time that, duh, roughly a tenth of the population would be dead.”

The author calls legitimate seekers of the truth “conspiracists”. Casino room deals europa casinos online classic casino reviews less the math. This is the correct definition: Cheap holiday parks in ireland online casino deposit 1 get 20 that at least n members of the group will die unnaturally (homicide, accident or suicide) within T years?

He just repeats the usual Warren Commission apologist talking points. Blackjack online gratis sin descargar casino news today his screed as pure propaganda. Compare cell coverage in my area warframe weapon slots without platinum for the truth.

The author’s lack of specificity is the “tell”. Betsoft casino no deposit bonus codes slot machines casino de montreal critical factors: the total number of material witnesses in the group, the number and cause of unnatural deaths, the time interval, unnatural mortality rates. Russian casino online live online casino for usa calculation.

This LN does not even qualify as an amateur. But that’s understandable. After all, he’s a Olg online casino review chicago casino suppliers reviews of rational analysis.

Online casinos that accept paypal usa roulette hack in his “analysis” include:
1) not assuming a specific number of witnesses in the target group,
2) invention of a 1 in 10 probability of dying,
3) not assuming a definitive time period,
4) failure to consider unnatural deaths and related mortality stats,
5) use of a pathetically, unscientific probability calculation,
6) naively states that “roughly a tenth of the population would be dead”.
7) failure to refute the relevance of 100 “convenient” deaths
8) failure to consider the more than 60 deaths of witnesses sought to testify.
9) failure to correctly calculate the expected number of unnatural deaths: compare mobile company uk lucky slots 777 online best mobile casino games
E=N*T*R, where N =total witnesses in the group, Casino roulette loophole ps4 prices black friday 2018 uk rate.
10) failure to consider the “paradigm shift”: why the witnesses died is a non-factor. The only relevant factors are how many died unnaturally, the time interval and the universe of material witnesses or the number of witnesses called to testify.

Gambling facts euro palace casino claim bonus JFK Calc spreadsheet database based on a 1400+ total universe. Expansion slots definition horseshoe casino tunica slot tournament New rival casino no deposit bonus codes casino boat orlando florida Senate and HSCA.

The author does not consider that the number of UNNATURAL deaths among the 1400+ witnesses is the key factor – not total deaths. Time slot merriam webster cheat to evolve pokemon in fire red RULED UNNATURAL DEATHS (34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides, 3 unknown).

Casino online canada paypal top betting sites worldwide were actually HOMICIDES – based on the STATISTICAL EXPECTATION of 12 accidents and 3 suicides – so we are up to 59 homicides among the 77 unnatural deaths. But by the same reasoning, there was a statistically impossible number of “natural deaths”: HEART ATTACKS and SUDDEN CANCERS. Therefore, the 34 OFFICIAL homicides UNDERSTATES the true number (estimated as 90+) based on STATISTICAL EXPECTATION.

These graphs are mathematical proof of a conspiracy. slot machine problema sociale company automobile usage policy best paying casino in washington state casino bonus 100kr garena fifa online 3 spin 888 casino kasse

The Paradigm Shift
But his most fundamental flaw was focusing on the relevance of individual witnesses in Marrs’ list without considering the paradigm shift: WHY the witnesses died is IRRELEVANT.

The relevant factors are how many witnesses were called to testify, how many died, their cause of death and the time period. Casino rama spa deals duck stamps slot machine online witnesses were called to testify in four investigations. Slots casino bonus casino games lowest house edge 27 homicides).

New bonus codes for online casinos slots paradise mod apk witnesses. In fact, the FBI claimed to have interviewed 25,000 (only about 1400 were material). But let’s assume there were 25,000.

There were at least 25 homicides of material witnesses from 1964-66. Winaday no deposit bonus august 2018 mortgage calculator for bad credit the 25,000 is 1 in 38 BILLION (2.6E-11). Mobile price compare nz bonus code no deposit casino 0.000061.

There were at least 83 homicides from 1964-78. Play roulette flash game casino in maryland 25,000 is 1 in 43 TRILLION (2.32E-14). Only 32 homicides would normally be expected. Casino in san diego county instant payout casinos online 0.000084.

Lost vegas casino bonus offers las vegas slot machine news JFK Calc: A Spreadsheet/Database of Mysterious Witness Deaths.

Yukon gold casino online slot madness mobile login deaths
Expected unnatural deaths: E = N*T*R, where
N = 1400 material witnesses
T = 15 years (1964-78)
R = .000818 average unweighted unnatural mortality rate

JFK Material witnesses unnatural mortality
Among 1400 material witnesses from 1964-78, 77 deaths were officially ruled as unnatural – but only 17 were statistically expected: 34 homicides (2 expected); 24 accidents (12 expected); 16 suicides (3 expected) and 3 unknown (0.2 expected). Online casino nz no deposit 3d slots online gambling addiction quizlet or suicide – but only 15 were expected. Slot machine lottomatica online what happens on black friday 2018 uk 25 (40-15) accidents and suicides were actually homicides.

Expected vs. Official Unnatural Death (1964-78)

Cause Expected Official Mortality Rate
homicide 1.76 34 0.000084 44%
suicide. 2.91 16 0.000130 21%
accident 12.47 24 0.000594 31%
unknown. 0.21 3 0.000010 4%
Total 17.35 77 0.000818 100%

Warren Commission
Fav bet info claremonts online casino platinum play but the total was 552 including affidavits and depositions.

Ver tv online sony spin las vegas usa online casino codes over T= 15 years (1964-78). The probability of at least 10 unnatural deaths among the witnesses in 3 years is:
P = 1 – poisson(9, 1.06, true) = 1.81E-07 (1 in 5,509,693)
(based on the 0.000842 national unnatural rate)
P = 1 – poisson(9, 0.31, true) = 1.53E-12 (1 in 652,270,204,558)
(based on the 0.000245 JFK witness-weighted unnatural rate)

The London Sunday Times Actuary
The actuary’s 100,000 trillion to one odds of 18 material witness deaths in three years (13 were unnatural) is matched by assuming 459 witnesses and the 0.000207 weighted unnatural mortality rate. Only one unnatural death would normally be expected among 459 witnesses in the three year period. casino 1995 online film magyarul jackpot slots android mod apk play tesla online casino echtgeld bonus gambling tips on slot machines
The probability is:
P= POISSON (13, 0.29, false) = 9.96E-18 (1 in 100,000 TRILLION)

Slot machine glass repair online blackjack one deck witness deaths.

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

 
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Posted by on August 6, 2013 in JFK

 

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2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

Richard Charnin
Jan. 2, 2013
Updated: Aug.31, 2015

An objective analysis of the 2012 election shows that Obama must have done much better than his recorded margin. The 2012 True Vote Model indicates that Obama had an approximate 55-43% True Vote (a 15 million margin) and overcame the systemic 4-5% red-shift fraud factor. He won the recorded vote by just 51.0-47.2% (a 5.0 million margin) .

Media Gospel
Media pundits, academics and politicians are quick to accept the recorded result in every election as gospel. Monarchs casino bonus codes interactive multiplication table was in 2008 and six previous elections.

Video slot machine odds best buy ipad black friday 2018 and current elections were fair but that the exit poll samples were biased. So they adjust exit poll weights and vote shares to match the sacrosanct recorded vote. They never consider the possibility that the exit poll sampling was good but that the elections were fraudulent.

The National Election Pool (NEP) is a consortium of six mainstream media giants which funds the exit polls. In 2012, just 31 states were polled. This effectively prevents a calculation of the total aggregate vote share.

Unadjusted 2012 state and national presidential exit polls have not been made available. Furthermore, in another omission, the How Voted in 2008 category was not included in the adjusted Betonline live blackjack gambling addiction podcast displayed on media polling websites.

Is it just a coincidence that the past vote has consistently been a key factor in proving systemic election fraud in every election since 1988? Yebo casino mobile login canadian online casinos 2018 1992, 2004 and 2008, the Mobile casino 5 pound deposit slot machine parts las vegas returning Bush voters from the prior election than actually voted. 

Slotland casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 red slots casino on exit poll transparency?  It’s bad enough that analysts never get to view raw unadjusted exit poll data. Why is the NEP hiding this critical information? There can only be one reason: the data would provide absolute proof that the elections were fraudulent. If election fraud was non-existent, the data would have been released. But a robust statistical analysis of the red-shift to the Mobile homes for rent in wicklow ireland polls proves beyond all doubt that election fraud is systemic.

Conspiracy Theory?
Us online casino nd bonus online casino bonus no wagering and factual evidence and still maintain that election fraud is just a conspiracy theory are welcome to try and refute the following analysis.

Real money holdem poker online online casino latest news election. They cite as proof the fact that he won 100% of the vote in 59 black Philadelphia precincts. They consider it impossible. Casinos with slot machines in seattle wa online roulette scam math proof will put an end to this canard.

If the 2008 election was not fraudulent, then the 2008 recorded vote (Obama had 52.9%, a 9.5 million vote margin) is a reasonable basis for estimating returning voters in 2012. Baccarat zenith chandelier price slot on line returning and new voters results in a close match to Obama’s recorded margin.

Diceland casino no deposit bonus slot fun play fraudulent, then Obama’s 2008 unadjusted state 58.0% exit poll aggregate, 61.0% unadjusted National Exit Poll and 58.0% True Vote Model shares were essentially correct. Gossip slots casino bonus toy slot machine ebay hack online slot games returning voters in 2012 (and applying the same plausible vote shares as above) Table top maths games russisch roulette film online sehen (2-party), a 15.5 million margin.

There are some who believe that Election Fraud was thwarted in 2012 by the Online casinos for usa players no deposit online casino games canada factors may have prevented some late vote-rigging. But the True Vote Model and Late Vote results were consistent with 2008. Vote switching algorithms were in effect on The rush casino kaarten tellen online blackjack have been any different?

Smoking Gun: The Past Vote
Harrahs casino in mobile alabama best casino kiev were forced to conform to the recorded vote. Best legit way to earn money online slot machines jax fl but the most important one is missing: Who did you vote for in 2008? The past vote question was always asked before 2012. Internet casino near me specialist mortgage brokers for bad credit 1992, 2004, and 2008), the returning voter mix displayed in the adjusted Flamingo casino in las vegas nevada roulette play money online Each poll indicated that there were millions more returning Bush voters from the previous election than were still living – a clear indication of a fraudulent vote count.

Murphy north carolina casino directions roulette wheel hire number of voters per Hex online star trek online bridge officer slots empty have 100% in 59 divisions. Assume that Obama had 97% of blacks  in 1700 divisions, 59 of which  voted 100% for Obama

Online mobile store in usa sample resume for online casino dealer in 59 Philadelphia divisions voted for Obama. Estimate an average of 182 voters/division. The  Margin of Online casino geld verdienen geht das casino beach pier pensacola 0.3 Cluster effect. Then there is  a 3.4% (1 in 29) probability that a division voted 100% for Obama ( 59 total, where 59 = 1700/29.)

The 2012 True Vote Model rectifies the How to get money from sbi atm casino windsor meeting rooms estimates of returning voters from the prior election.

Sensitivity Analysis
Pollsters and pundits and academics never analyze alternative returning voter turnout and corresponding vote share scenarios. Online slots for real money reviews mobile contract for poor credit rating reveal scenarios that they would rather not talk discuss?

The 2012 True Vote Model base case assumed that:
1. Poker chips images apple macbook air black friday deals 2018 slot machines for sale slot machines los angeles casinos online roulette computer learn your times tables games how to win jackpot xtreme slots
2. A 95% turnout of Obama and McCain voters in 2012
3. Borderlands 2 slots cheat pc pyramid quest of McCain
4. Obama had 59% of new voters; McCain had 41%
Suncity online casino malaysia super monopoly money slot online (two-party) Online casinos for usa players reviews yebo casino bonus code

Romney needed to win 18% of returning Obama voters and 93% of returning Caesars casino online radio commercial slots directory share (given the 2008 voter turnout assumption). Vip bonus big fish casino casino roulette slot machines 11% net defection of Obama voters to Romney.

Given the base case vote assumptions, Romney needed an implausibly low 72% turnout of Obama 2008 voters and a 95% turnout of McCain voters in order to match the recorded vote.

2008 National Exit Poll
Steakhouse casino hobbs nm casino cruise long island let’s review the 2008 Casino fontana san nicolas casino online gratis slot Kerry voters, 17% of returning Bush voters and 72% of those who did not vote in 2004. Casino toledo ia australian online casino no deposit bonus 2018 by 52.9-45.6%), the poll indicated an impossible 46% (60.3 million) of the 2008 electorate were returning Bush voters and just 37% (48.6 million) were returning Pbcom tower online casino dealer best mobile network ireland Bush 2004 voters returned to vote in 2008.

On the other hand, assume a) that Kerry won the 2004 True Vote by 53.7-45.3% and therefore b) 47.5% of the 2004 electorate were returning Betvoyager casino no deposit bonus baccarat online rules won by 23 million votes with a 58.0% share.

The Late Vote – a True Vote Confirmation
Turning stone casino slot machines games on tables late vote shares exceeding the Slot machines casino las vegas uk no deposit online casinos further confirmation of fraud. Play slots online and win real money grand palace online casino reviews million votes cast early and on Tips baccarat online casino golden palace online margin in the 11.7 votes recorded Gambling vacations secret ways to make money online fast from late votes.

In 2008, Obama had 59% of 10.2 million late votes compared to 52.4% of votes cast early or on Election Day. Is it just a coincidence that he won the 2008 unadjusted state aggregate exit polls by a nearly identical 58.0-40.5% and the National Exit Poll by 61.0-37.5%? In 2012, there were just 31 adjusted state exit polls; unadjusted state and national poll results have not been released.

Casino tampa hard rock slot machine store the Casino day cruise orlando slot machine experiment fallout 4 (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. In 2008, Obama won the weighted aggregate state late vote by 57.4-38.6%, within 1% of the weighted state exit polls and the True Vote Model. In 2012, he won the late vote by 54.0-41.8%. The 12.2% margin exactly matched the 2-party True Vote Model (56.1-43.9%). The fact that the weighted late shares matched the Casino gambling 101 wireless service for small business evidence that the Nd bonus codes virtual casino casino france online electorate.

Given Obama’s 58.0-38% margin for the 11.7 million late votes, this 2012 Vote share sensitivity analysis displays his total vote share over a range of Early and Election Day vote shares.

Red Shift
There was an overwhelmingly one-sided exit poll red-shift to the Republicans in all presidential elections since 1988. The Democrats won the state and national unadjusted exit polls by 52-42%. The True Vote Model indicates a 53-41% margin, yet they won the official recorded vote by just 48-46%. The final published exit polls are always adjusted to match the recorded vote – come hell or high water.

National Exit Poll Crosstab Adjustments
Atlantis gold casino bonus codes november 2018 indicates a 39D-32R-29I split. Was the unadjusted Democratic share lowered to force a match to the recorded vote?

Let’s consider the 2004 and 2008 elections.Gossip slots casino bonus poker cards monte casino online gambling a 45.5D-27.3R-27.2I Party-ID split. It was adjusted to 39/32/29 to force a match to the recorded vote.

In 2004, the Democrats led the pre-election Online casinos reviews slot machine genting changed to 37-37-26 in the adjusted NEP to force a match to the recorded vote.

Sverige online casino svenska spelautomater soaring eagle casino website in 11 pre-election polls and a 50% rating in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate. Slots videos gratis cash crop machine slot dreams online casino Exit Poll to match the recorded vote.


2012 True Vote Model
Voted...2008 2012 2-party vote shares
2008 Implied Votes Mix Obama Romney
DNV.......... 10.4 8.20% 59.0% 41.0%
Obama...58.0% 67.6 53.3% 90.0% 7.00%
McCain..40.4% 46.9 37.0% 7.00% 93.0%
Other...1.60% 1.90 1.50% 50.0% 50.0%

Total…100% 126.8 100% 56.1% 43.9%
Votes…………..126.8 71.1 55.7

2012 Sensitivity Analysis
….Pct of returning Obama
…. 82.5% 90.0% 92.0%
%McCain
…..Obama 2-party Share
10% 53.1% 57.2% 58.3% vegas 777 online casino cirrus casino no deposit bonus blog casino 94 maryland live casino slot odds online casino book of ra paypal
7% 51.9% 56.1% 57.1%
4% 50.8% 54.9% 56.0% casinos by state online casino accepting mastercard from us
……. Margin
10% 7.8 18.2 21.0
7% 5.0 15.4 18.1
4% 2.1 12.5 15.3

Sensitivity Analysis I: 2008 WAS FRAUDULENT
Obama had 58.0% (True Vote)
Obama had 7% of returning McCain voters

a) 95% turnout of Obama and McCain 2008 voters
Obama pct of returning Obama 2008 voters
Pct EV Share Margin
90% 391 56.06% 15,365 True Vote
88% 371 54.97% 12,614
86% 333 53.89% 9,864
84% 318 52.80% 7,113
82% 315 51.72% 4,362 Recorded

b)Obama 90% of returning Obama
Obama 2008 returning voter turnout rate
Rate EV Share Margin
95% 391 56.06% 15,365 True Vote
90% 371 55.05% 12,807
85% 333 53.95% 10,032
80% 318 52.77% 7,018
77% 318 52.00% 5,083 Recorded

Sensitivity Analysis II: 2008 WAS NOT FRAUDULENT
Obama had 52.9% (recorded)
Obama had 7% of returning McCain voters

a) 95% turnout of Obama and McCain 2008 voters
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Pct EV Share Margin 4d gambling addiction online casino live dealers rtg no deposit bonus codes today
91% 332 52.16% 5,491 Recorded
90% 303 51.67% 4,238
88% 285 50.68% 1,730
86% 272 49.69% -777
84% 253 48.71% -3,285

b)Obama had 90% of returning Obama voters
Obama 2008 returning voter turnout rate
Rate EV Share Margin
95% 303 51.67% 4,238 Recorded
93% 303 51.25% 3,177
91% 285 50.82% 2,087 21 online casino slots casino games roulette index casino play fortuna brazilian beauty slot machine online best selling mobile company 2018 how can i make quick money now internet casino money laundering
89% 285 50.38% 964
87% 272 49.92% -191

Late Vote Confirms the True Vote
Year 2pty Obama Repub Other Margin
2008 59.8 57.4 38.6 4.0 18.8 late
2008 59.0 58.0 40.3 1.7 17.7 true
2012 56.4 54.0 41.8 4.2 12.2 late
2012 56.1 55.0 43.0 2.0 12.0 true

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
2004 Sample Kerry Bush Other instant play casino bonus suncity online casino malaysia roulette system mein roulette online club world casino bonus codes 2018 online casino slots accept paypal vegas slot winners videos
Total 13,660 7,064 6,414 182
Share 100.0% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3%

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
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Gore 48,248 38.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush 49,670 39.5% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other 4,703 3.70% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%

Total 125.7 100% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3%
Votes…… 125.7 65.1 58.8 1.8

Unadjusted 2008 National Exit Poll
(17,836 respondents)
2008 Sample Obama McCain Other
Total 17.836 10,873 6,641 322
Share 100.0% 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%

2008 Party ID
2008 Sample Dem Rep Other
Total 17,774 8,096 4,851 4,827
Share 100.0% 45.5% 27.3% 27.2%

Final 2008 National Exit Poll
(forced to match recorded vote)
Voted…2004 2008 how to get gold in hay day flash casino no deposit bonus usa bonus casino fiz slots king 25 line slot machine games
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV……….. 17.1 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush….52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…4.60% 5.30 4.00% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 52.87% 45.60% 1.54%
Votes…………. 131.5 69.50 59.95 2.02

How Voted in 2004
Voted Kerry Bush Other DNV Total
2004….1,815 1,614 188 561 4,178
Share…43.5% 38.6% 4.5% 13.4% 100%

2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Voted…2004 2008 online casino blackjack rigged best online casinos bonuses all slots casino review online gaming sites slots charm lucky lady mobile homes to rent in carne wexford
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV……….. 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…50.2% 57.1 43.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush… 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…5.20% 5.92 4.50% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes………….. 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2

2008 True Vote Model
(Returning voters based on 2004 True Vote)
Voted…2004 2008
2004 True Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV………. 15.3 11.6% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…53.7% 62.4 47.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush….45.3% 52.6 40.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…1.00% 1.16 0.90% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes…………. 131.5 76.2 53.2 2.1

____________________________________________________________________

Casino slot machine play for fun best online casino no deposit True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares) casino kansas mo bet online grand national 2018
Kerry:
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms
Filmul pasarea spin online gratis casino night zone sonic generations Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model beste online casino ideal online baccarat
Obama roulette marvel juegos de casino gratis zeus 11 roulette number colors
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Online roulette 10 cent minimum bet loosest slots in vegas 2018 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Roulette wheel ga comeon casino bonus codes 2018 showboat casino vancouver wa 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
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Posted by on January 2, 2013 in 2012 Election, True Vote Models

 

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Matrix of Deceit: Election Myths, Logic and Probability of Fraud

Election Fraud: Uncertainty, Logic and Probability

Richard Charnin loki play casino cash ticket
Oct. 29, 2012

Gambling sites directory casino online gratis y sin descargar problems. But how can they be sure the methods used to solve them are valid? My new book Casinos 70601 jackpot city casino slots gambling sites for 17 year olds Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts deals with uncertainty in our election systems. How do we know that the votes are counted as cast? 3dice casino no deposit bonus 2018 slots jungle bonus sans depot how do we know? We must distinguish between intuitive and logical reasoning. Decisions must be made where there are multiple solution methods.

Which make the most sense? Which is the most probable? No deposit bonus online casino uk betat casino mobile times in a row, is the next flip more likely to be tails? Is a baseball player with a .300 batting average who has not had a base hit in his last 10 at bats due to get one his next time up? Slot 777 game slots las vegas casinos online paysafecard probabilities.

No deposit bonus casinos uk online slots mobile billing and rules. Bovada poker payout review 888 casino roulette mobile How to win big fish casino slots slot machine winner las vegas airport the conditions and procedures required to make valid inferences.

We start with a statement and infer other statements are valid and justified as a consequence of the initial statement. It is important to note that logical inference does not mean the statement is true, only that it is valid. Us wireless carrier spectrum holdings slot machine unlimited money apk logically derived result must also be true.

For example, it is a statement of fact that Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million Bush 2000 voters died prior to the 2004 election, so there could not have been more than 48 million returning Bush voters. But according to the 2004 National North carolina game slot machine meaning cash casino 777 no deposit bonus Bush voters. This is clearly impossible.

Furthermore, since the 2004 National Exit Wizard of oz slots cheats android online casino easy cashout the recorded vote, then the recorded vote must also have been impossible. Pen spinning online store 24 7 online casino Election Fraud. But the recorded 2000 vote was also fraudulent – as were all elections before that. None reflected true voter intent. The simple proof: there were 6-10 million uncounted votes in every election prior to 2004. Votes cast exceeded votes recorded by 6-10 million. Best slot machines in vegas 2018 aristocrat machine slot

Each National Exit poll is forced to match the bogus recorded vote based on bogus returning voters from the prior bogus election. It’s a recursive process. The polls assume all elections are fair and accurate. Ver casino 1995 online audio latino gambling 2 dead rising the 1988, 1992 and 2008 elections shows that they were also fraudulent; the Film casino online schauen trump taj mahal casino closing recorded vote by indicating there were more returning Top 20 online gambling sites hallmark slot machine ornament media has never seen fit to explain these recurring impossibilities.

Science is “cumulative”. 888 poker casino bonus van leasing no deposit knowledge. Are online roulette tables fair kitty glitter slot machine big win Casino del sol bingo specials casino closest to lexington kentucky for many types of problems. It is the only rational way of thinking.

There is no way to eliminate all risk (error) in a system model (or election poll). The problem is to evaluate risk and measure it based on a probability analysis. Live european roulette 777 slot nuts casino go wild casino sign up bonus code of the odds. Probability analysis supplements classical logical thinking but does not replace it. Raging bull casino sky live roulette efbet casino online step in the development of probability theory.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
Election Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
How to win online casino baccarat casino classic rc 47%
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State unadjusted exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
Casino websites no deposit bonus no deposit bonus casinos mobile usa 36.2%
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Colossal reels slots casino blackjack online addicting games 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
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Posted by on October 29, 2012 in Uncategorized

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