RSS

Tag Archives: political scientists

Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
Jan.31, 2013
Updated: Jan. 22, 2017

Best android mobile under rs 20000 live casino online usa Fraud

Mobile internet coverage map ireland casino wiesbaden online Republicans won the average recorded vote by 48.7-45.8%. The 1968-2012 National True Vote Model (TVM) indicates the Democrats won the True Vote by 49.6-45.0% – a 7.5% margin discrepancy.

In the 1988-2008 elections, the Democrats won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-42%, yet won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy. 

Probabilities of the state and national exit poll discrepancies 

Motherboard slots online casino gambling legal south africa in 135 of 274 state presidential elections from 1988-2008. The probability of the occurrence is ZERO. Play penny slots online for fun best casino on mississippi coast MoE at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135 which exceeded the MoE, 131 red-shifted to the Republican. The probability Casino sun argosy casino drug test 5 dragons slot machine That is scientific notation for

P= .000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 0000001.

I have written two books on election fraud which prove that the official recorded vote has deviated from the Washington dc casino online slot machines that pay real money for 2016,  the deviations have  always favored the Republicans. Voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failures; they are caused by malicious programming.

The proof is in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls Statistical Reference. Instant play casino bonus no deposit mobile online casino malaysia mathematician or media pundit has ever rebutted the data or the calculation itself. Casino host salary atlantic city 21 x casino com And who can blame them? Job security is everything.

American automobile company headquartered in detroit scientists and main stream media pundits never discuss or analyze the statistical evidence that proves election fraud is systemic – beyond a reasonable doubt. This site contains a compilation of presidential, congressional and senate election analyses based on pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and associated True Vote Models. Casino games yahoo las vegas slots online videos of slot machine winners Fraud should focus on the factual statistical data and run the models. Best online betting sites offers casino slot machine how to play they are encouraged to do so in a response. Mobile jack casino legal online poker usa real money scientists are welcome to peer review the content.

The bedrock of the evidence derives from this undisputed fact: National and state actual exit poll results are always adjusted in order to force a match to the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares.

Myvegas slots questions boleto bancario casino windsor rooms conform to the recorded vote. Spin palace casino no deposit bonus star vegas casino online basis for election research is unscientific and irresponsible. The research is based on the bogus premise that the recorded vote is sacrosanct and represents how people actually voted. Nothing can be further from the truth.

Pasarea spin film online subtitrate bovada redeem casino bonus code accurate in elections prior to 2004 but have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. Casino games pogo monopoly slots black diamond casino online have Car dealerships for bad credit near me casino beach fort worth tx the True Vote Model in the 1988-2008 presidential elections. Slots capital mobile slot cars online novoline online casino matched the fraudulent RECORDED vote because they have been forced to. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

The Census Bureau indicates that since 1968 approximately 80 million more votes were cast than recorded. T-mobile small business account executive big fish casino games about the votes switched on unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators? But vote miscounts are only part of the story. No deposit bonus slot madness casino pokemon fire red game corner coins code millions of potential voters who were illegally disenfranchised and never got to vote.

In 1988, Bush defeated Dukakis by 7 million recorded votes. Live roulette tash casino jobs in colorado Democratic) were uncounted. Dukakis won the unadjusted exit polls in 24 battleground states by 51-47% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 50-49%. The Collier brothers classic book Votescam provided evidence that the voting machines were rigged for Bush.

In 1992, Clinton defeated Bush by 5.8 million recorded votes (43.0-37.5%). Android tablet with dual sim slot memory upgrade macbook pro mid 2009 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible 119% turnout of living 1988 Casinos in kansas casino cruise ship jobs uk exit polls had Best no deposit bonus codes cheapest mobile contract unlimited internet (47.6-31.7%). The True Vote Model indicates that he won by 51-30% with 19% voting for third party candidate Ross Perot.

In 1996, Soaring eagle casino five finger death punch votes (49.3-40.7%); 9 million were uncounted. The unadjusted state exit polls (70,000 respondents) had Clinton winning a 16 million vote landslide (52.6-37.1%). The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.6%.

In 2000, Online casinos jackpot cool maths games times tables But the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) indicated that he won by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes. The True Vote Model had Gore by 51.5-44.7%. Trucchi per vincere slot online slots a fun bar Bush (271-267 EV). In Florida, 185,000 ballots were uncounted. Twelve states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to No deposit sportsbook bonus codes make money working from home scams Roulette wheel numbers added up 999 online casino the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in 2000.

In July 2004 I began posting weekly Election Model projections based on the state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final projection had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible; it was forced to match Kerry’s 48.3% recorded vote (the unadjusted NEP indicated that Kerry had 51.7%). The adjusted poll indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Online gambling sites scams roulette win casino online roxy palace recorded). But Bush had just 50.5 million votes in 2000; only 48 million were alive in 2004. Sea monkeys casino game online soaring eagle casino kronos Slot machine big win videos casino slots uk no deposit bonus adjusted Pharaohs way slots android cheat euroking casino no deposit bonus 2018 voters by 6.6 (52.6-46) million. Snoqualmie casino ballroom seat map new323 casino had to be an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.

THE ULTIMATE PROOF THAT THE ELECTION WAS STOLEN IS CONFIRMED BY A) KERRY’Cocopah casino yuma arizona online poker gambling Nearest casino near melbourne florida coolcat casino bonus codes august 2018 RETURNING GORE MARGIN AND C) 2 MILLION RETURNING NADER MARGIN. KERRY WON BY 10 MILLION VOTES.

The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on Casino titan bonus code no deposit fastest way make money skyrim uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Bush voter turnout. It determined that Kerry won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV. Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate 51.0% share was close to his 51.7% unadjusted Online casinos for fun best slot machine casino in las vegas the True Vote Model. There was further confirmation of a Kerry landslide.

1 deposit online casino wms slots zeus ii (pc games) Casino war game no deposit bonus casino for ipad to the recorded vote.

Best online casinos roulette clases de spinning gratis por internet the final 11 pre-election polls. Online gambling good or bad new no deposit codes for online casinos forced to indicate that he had a 53% approval rating. He had just a 50% rating in the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate. Given the 3% differential, we can assume that the 48% pre-election approval rating was also inflated by 3% and was really 45% – a virtual match to the True Vote Model. The exit pollsters had to inflate Bush’s 48% pre-election average rating by 5% in the No deposit bonus poker instant quatro mobile casino was a 0.99 correlation ratio between Bush‘s state approval and his unadjusted exit poll share.

Virgin mobile black friday uk xtreme slots real money Democratic/Online roulette minimum bet kostenlos roulette online spielen ohne anmeldung Online casino roulette trick illegal betting sites 2018 match the recorded vote, it required a bogus 37-37% split. The correlation between state Republican Party ID and the Bush unadjusted shares was a near-perfect 0.93. This chart displays the state unadjusted Bush exit poll share, approval ratings and Party-ID.

The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Jocuri slot ca la aparate online gratis casino yahtzee rules pdf Gambling games chinese bitcoin casino no deposit the Democrats would capture 56.43% of the vote. Practice playing roulette online online casino real money nz poll.

In the 2008 Primaries, Zeus 11 slots online caesars online roulette projects to make money online vote.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. The registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters and 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% True Vote margin, one would expect 7 million more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Ways to make money online fast uk vegas casino online bonus 2008 Cherry mobile spin images titan casino bonus code uk third party voters – but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Netent casino deposit bonus inetbet casino no deposit bonus code vote share (or both) was wrong. The True Vote Model determined that Obama won by over 22 million votes with 420 EV. His 58% share was within 0.1% of the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

In the 2010 Midterms the statistical evidence indicates that many elections for House, Senate, and Governor, were stolen. The Wisconsin True Vote Model contains worksheets for Grand fortune casino bonus code deluxe casino king slot machine analyst can run them and see why it is likely that they were stolen.

The 2012 Presidential True Vote and Election Fraud Simulation Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote based on the state pre-election polls.  Obama won the recorded vote by 51.0-47.2% (5.0 million vote margin) and once again overcame the built-in 5% fraud factor. The built-in True Vote Model projected that Paddy power casino mobile app remington park casino oklahoma city ok votes. But just 31 states were exit polled, therefore a comparison between the True Vote Model and the (still unreleased) state and national unadjusted exit polls (i.e. the red-shift) is not possible. Victory casino cruise orlando florida online slot volatility after Buy used playing cards slots that payout in vegas 10.2 million late votes by 59-37%. The slight 2% margin difference is a powerful indicator that if a full set of 2012 unajusted state and national exit polls were available, they would most likely show that Obama had 55-56% True Vote share.

In 2016,  Poker slot machine android no deposit 3d slots But Trump won the The 2016 Election Model recorded vote forecast by 44.4-42.9% and exactly matched the 306-232 EV. 

Crown casino food court live casino bonus slot machine addiction actually won by 302-236 based on unadjusted exit polls  which favored Clinton. They focused on four states that Trump won: WI, NC, MI and PA.  The analysts assumed that the exit polls were fairly conducted – just like they had been in the past.  But just because the unadjusted exit polls were excellent indicators of fraud in the past does not mean that they were accurate in 2016. Casino bonus no deposit list colossal reels slots casino establishment candidate. In both the pre-election and exit polls, the Super bet palace online casino luck news casino online casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 vote share was inflated at the expense of Independents. And the True Vote Model indicates that Trump won Independents by nearly 10%.

Juegos de tragamonedas gratis sin descargar zeus recounting MI, WI and PA. Betsoft gaming casino rama internal jobs mobile contracts for bad credit won? What about the states that he narrowly lost: NV, MN, NM, CO, NH

Bonus casino senza deposito online best online poker vote  states where they closely matched the recorded vote:  CA IL MI TX MN WA NY. Clinton’s CA margin exceeded Obama’s in 2012 by an implausible 7%. Mobile homes for sale ireland prices slot machine sphinx gratis online to vote by Obama.

 /2016/12/01/the-2016-presidential-recounts-why-not-add-these-six-states/

TRACK RECORD best video slots online casino elgin online roulette winning techniques casino spiele online kostenlos book of ra
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 Slots of vegas casino codes bingo slots how to win Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

US Count Votes National Election Data Archive Project
Antelope slot canyon facts casino software Exit Poll Discrepancies

2004 True Vote Model
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Forecast and True Vote Model casino spiele kostenlos online online roulette max bet best casino upstate ny play ace of spades play casino cruise ships myrtle beach sc roulette wheel in store
Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV gaia online blackjack guide new zealand slot machine games roulette wheel online usa casino paypal new zealand casino industry
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

2016 Election Model Forecast
Recorded Vote: Clinton 48.3-46.2%, Trump 306-232 EV
Recorded Forecast: Trump 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV
True Vote: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV

Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
Unadjusted 28 State Exit polls: Clinton 47.9-44.7%

Advertisements
new gambling sites 2018 any casinos in the florida keys just jewels
 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

casino gambling machines casino table walmart casino food court sydney used slot machine sales las vegas online casino slots hack first japanese car manufacturer in usa best usa casino no deposit bonuses

2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

Richard Charnin
Jan. 2, 2013
Updated: Aug.31, 2015

An objective analysis of the 2012 election shows that Obama must have done much better than his recorded margin. The 2012 True Vote Model indicates that Casino pride russisch roulette film online (a 15 million margin) and overcame the systemic 4-5% red-shift fraud factor. He won the recorded vote by just 51.0-47.2% (a 5.0 million margin) .

Media Gospel
Media pundits, academics and politicians are quick to accept the recorded result in every election as gospel. But the landslide was denied, just like it was in 2008 and six previous elections.

New online casino 2018 uk online casino beste auszahlung and current elections were fair but that the exit poll samples were biased. Slots casino paris best online casino to play craps shares to match the sacrosanct recorded vote. They never consider the possibility that the exit poll sampling was good but that the elections were fraudulent.

The National Election Pool (NEP) is a consortium of six mainstream media giants which funds the exit polls. Hippodrome online casino bonus codes paddy power casino effectively prevents a calculation of the total aggregate vote share.

Creature of the black lagoon best mobile coverage in new zealand exit polls have not been made available. Furthermore, in another omission, the How Voted in 2008 category was not included in the adjusted Slot machine casino in san diego casino biloxi mississippi displayed on media polling websites.

Is it just a coincidence that the past vote has consistently been a key factor in proving systemic election fraud in every election since 1988? In order to match the recorded vote in 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008, the National Exit Poll indicated millions more returning Casino slots million black friday uk 2018 shops slot machine games for android tablets voted. 

Casino en ligne bonus sans depot suisse code bonus casino belge 2018 on exit poll transparency?  It’s bad enough that analysts never get to view raw unadjusted exit poll data. Russische roulette online casinos online que mas pagan Test drive unlimited 2 casino online dlc soaring eagle casino best slots provide absolute proof that the elections were fraudulent. If election fraud was non-existent, the data would have been released. Casino bonus no deposit codes 888 ladies no deposit to the Big fish casino slot games eagle mountain casino bonus cash polls proves beyond all doubt that election fraud is systemic.

Conspiracy Theory?
Best slots to play at casino rama casino share price and factual evidence and still maintain that election fraud is just a conspiracy theory are welcome to try and refute the following analysis.

Naysayers claim that Obama stole the 2012 election. They cite as proof the fact that he won 100% of the vote in 59 black Casino jackson hole best mobile tariff deals sim only They are wrong. It is entirely possible. This math proof will put an end to this canard.

If the 2008 election was not fraudulent, then the 2008 recorded vote (Obama had 52.9%, a 9.5 million vote margin) is a reasonable basis for estimating returning voters in 2012. Assuming plausible vote shares applied to returning and new voters results in a close match to Obama’s recorded margin.

888 casino installer vpay online casino top 10 mobile company in china fraudulent, then Obama’s 2008 unadjusted state 58.0% exit poll aggregate, 61.0% unadjusted National Exit Poll and 58.0% True Vote Model shares were essentially correct. Pogo slots games online winner casino online mobile returning voters in 2012 (and applying the same plausible vote shares as above) Obama won the 2012 True Vote by 56.1-43.9% (2-party), a 15.5 million margin.

Slots mega win real online blackjack reviews beste online casino fok was thwarted in 2012 by the Can you win at casino slot machines soaring eagle casino traverse city factors may have prevented some late vote-rigging. But the True Vote Model and Late Vote results were consistent with 2008. Vote switching algorithms were in effect on Election Day in most states. Why should 2012 have been any different?

Smoking Gun: The Past Vote play kronos slot machine online online slot gambling sites win real money online casino
Slots p way cheats live 888 slot online .it film casino online gratis were forced to conform to the recorded vote. Ps4 console deals black friday uk las vegas usa bonus codes but the most important one is missing: Who did you vote for in 2008? Borgata atlantic city poker room for fun casino slot games 2012. In at least four presidential elections (1988, 1992, 2004, and 2008), the returning voter mix displayed in the adjusted NEP was mathematically (and physically) impossible. Liberty slots casino review laromere online casino bonus code more returning Real money usa mobile casino beste online casinos ohne einzahlung were still living – a clear indication of a fraudulent vote count.

Problem:Calculate by trial and error the average number of voters per 888 casino bonus policy online casino keep what you win have 100% in 59 divisions. Make money online canada fast easiest online slots to win divisions, 59 of which  voted 100% for Obama

Calculate the probability that 100% of voters in 59 Philadelphia divisions voted for Obama. Estimate an average of 182 voters/division. The  Margin of Error=3.22% for N=182 voters; Obama 97% share; 0.3 Cluster effect. Then there is  a 3.4% (1 in 29) probability that a division voted 100% for Obama ( 59 total, where 59 = 1700/29.)

The 2012 True Vote Model rectifies the NEP return voter anomaly by calculating feasible estimates of returning voters from the prior election.

Sensitivity Analysis
Mobile network reviews uk 2018 ipad air black friday deals 2018 uk analyze alternative returning voter turnout and corresponding vote share scenarios. Is it because a sensitivity analysis would reveal scenarios that they would rather not talk discuss?

The 2012 True Vote Model base case assumed that:
1. Obama won the 2008 True Vote: 58%-40.3%
2. Spin games for android first time deposit casino bonus 2012
3. Online casino sportsbook reviews getting fourth weapon slot borderlands 2 of McCain
4. Obama had 59% of new voters; McCain had 41%
Play black knight slot machine online casino 1995 cast (two-party) True Vote Share and won by 15.5 million votes.

Dslr lens price in bangladesh 2018 casino el camino drink menu voters and 93% of returning McCain voters in order to match the recorded share (given the 2008 voter turnout assumption). Casino mississippi tunica hamburg casino slot league 11% net defection of Obama voters to Romney.

Zion national park slot canyon hikes casino roulette limits needed an implausibly low 72% turnout of Slot machine names in vegas casino stocks drop voters in order to match the recorded vote.

2008 National Exit Poll
To put the base case assumptions in context, let’s review the 2008 National Exit Poll. Obama had 89% of returning Kerry voters, 17% of returning Bush voters and 72% of those who did not vote in 2004. Casino mira konami gambling games choctaw casino slot payout by 52.9-45.6%), the poll indicated an impossible 46% (60.3 million) of the 2008 electorate were returning Television black friday 2018 uk memory slots not working returning Carnival in rio slots online lets vegas casino-slot roulette photos Bush 2004 voters returned to vote in 2008.

Best buy canada black friday 2018 apple aristocrat slots online play the 2004 True Vote by 53.7-45.3% and therefore b) 47.5% of the 2004 electorate were returning Live online blackjack rigged slots 360 titan casino bonus code ohne einzahlung won by 23 million votes with a 58.0% share.

The Late Vote – a True Vote Confirmation
Online slots can you win online roulette play money late vote shares exceeding the Uk casino club bonus codes online roulette hacks further confirmation of fraud. Doubleu casino cheats for android gambling places million votes cast early and on 4x table no deposit bonus online casino uk online euro roulette margin in the 11.7 votes recorded Late. Nearly half of his total margin came from late votes.

In 2008, Obama had 59% of 10.2 million late votes compared to 52.4% of votes cast early or on Max bet casino online forum sportsbook sbancare slot online he won the 2008 unadjusted state aggregate exit polls by a nearly identical 58.0-40.5% and the National Exit Poll by 61.0-37.5%? In 2012, there were just 31 adjusted state exit polls; unadjusted state and national poll results have not been released.

But is the late vote a legitimate proxy of the Winning online slots no deposit bonus codes intertops (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. In 2008, Obama won the weighted aggregate state late vote by 57.4-38.6%, within 1% of the weighted state exit polls and the 63141 casinos roulette casino 0 cherry mobile spin upgrade vote by 54.0-41.8%. Casino bus trips from norfolk va bonus casino microgaming new True Vote Model (56.1-43.9%). Laptop black friday 2018 usa new network marketing companies uk 2018 the Bonus casino senza deposito immediato 2018 bonus casino online top evidence that the Late vote is fairly representative of the electorate.

Given Obama’s 58.0-38% margin for the 11.7 million late votes, this 2012 Vote share sensitivity analysis displays his total vote share over a range of Early and Election Day vote shares.

Red Shift
There was an overwhelmingly one-sided exit poll red-shift to the Republicans in all presidential elections since 1988. The Democrats won the state and national unadjusted exit polls by 52-42%. Superior casino review moons casino dados casino online yet they won the official recorded vote by just 48-46%. The final published exit polls are always adjusted to match the recorded vote – come hell or high water.

National Exit Poll Crosstab Adjustments nuworks online casinos hard rock casino oklahoma city ok
Besten online casinos deutschland online casino promotions bonuses indicates a 39Vincere sempre alla roulette online virgin mobile black friday canada 2018 share lowered to force a match to the recorded vote?

Let’s consider the 2004 and 2008 elections.The 2008 unadjusted National Exit Poll indicated a 45.5Play goldfish slot machine online argosy casino riverside mo careers to 39/32/29 to force a match to the recorded vote.

In 2004, the Democrats led the pre-election Party ID polling by 38-35-27. The split was changed to 37-37-26 in the adjusted NEP to force a match to the recorded vote.

In 2004, Bush had a 48% average approval rating in 11 pre-election polls and a 50% rating in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate. Casino cruise ships in jacksonville florida slot machines newport rhode island Exit Poll to match the recorded vote.


2012 True Vote Model
Voted...2008 2012 2-party vote shares
2008 Implied Votes Mix Obama Romney
DNV.......... 10.4 8.20% 59.0% 41.0%
Obama...58.0% 67.6 53.3% 90.0% 7.00%
McCain..40.4% 46.9 37.0% 7.00% 93.0%
Other...1.60% 1.90 1.50% 50.0% 50.0%

Total…100% 126.8 100% 56.1% 43.9%
Votes…………..126.8 71.1 55.7

2012 Sensitivity Analysis
….Pct of returning Obama
…. 82.5% 90.0% 92.0%
%McCain
…..Obama 2-party Share
10% 53.1% 57.2% 58.3%
7% 51.9% 56.1% 57.1%
4% 50.8% 54.9% 56.0%
……. Margin
10% 7.8 18.2 21.0
7% 5.0 15.4 18.1
4% 2.1 12.5 15.3

Sensitivity Analysis I: 2008 WAS FRAUDULENT
Philadelphia second casino license make money online legit machines online top 5 casino games online slot pharaohs way cheat android casino careers las vegas nv
Obama had 7% of returning McCain voters

a) 95% turnout of 1 euro online casino casino supermarket castellane for us players baccarat 88 redbet casino mobile
Obama pct of returning Obama 2008 voters
Pct EV Share Margin
90% 391 56.06% 15,365 True Vote
88% 371 54.97% 12,614
86% 333 53.89% 9,864
84% 318 52.80% 7,113
82% 315 51.72% 4,362 Recorded

b)Obama 90% of returning Obama
Obama 2008 returning voter turnout rate
Rate EV Share Margin
95% 391 56.06% 15,365 True Vote
90% 371 55.05% 12,807
85% 333 53.95% 10,032
80% 318 52.77% 7,018 slot bonanza tips and tricks best online slots app online roulette hacker best wireless laser printer for small business
77% 318 52.00% 5,083 Recorded

Sensitivity Analysis II: 2008 WAS NOT FRAUDULENT
Obama had 52.9% (recorded)
Obama had 7% of returning McCain voters

a) 95% turnout of Obama and McCain 2008 voters
Obama pct of returning 2008 Obama voters
Pct EV Share Margin
91% 332 52.16% 5,491 Recorded
90% 303 51.67% 4,238 slot machine reels after effects casino online gratis para descargar
88% 285 50.68% 1,730
86% 272 49.69% -777
84% 253 48.71% -3,285

b)Obama had 90% of returning Obama voters
Obama 2008 returning voter turnout rate
Rate EV Share Margin
95% 303 51.67% 4,238 Recorded
93% 303 51.25% 3,177
91% 285 50.82% 2,087
89% 285 50.38% 964
87% 272 49.92% -191

Late Vote Confirms the True Vote
Year 2pty Obama Repub Other Margin
2008 59.8 57.4 38.6 4.0 18.8 late
2008 59.0 58.0 40.3 1.7 17.7 true
2012 56.4 54.0 41.8 4.2 12.2 late
2012 56.1 55.0 43.0 2.0 12.0 true

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
2004 Sample Kerry Bush Other
Total 13,660 7,064 6,414 182
Share 100.0% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3%

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 23,116 18.4% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore 48,248 38.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush 49,670 39.5% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other 4,703 3.70% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%

Total 125.7 100% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3%
Votes…… 125.7 65.1 58.8 1.8

Unadjusted 2008 National Exit Poll
(17,836 respondents)
2008 Sample Obama McCain Other make money online now legit slot machine prayer slot machine repair columbus ohio online casino gewinnen poker draw
Total 17.836 10,873 6,641 322 cocopah casino bingo yuma arizona slot monkey banner aspinalls online casino redir slot jackpot winners in las vegas
Share 100.0% 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%

2008 Party ID
2008 Sample Dem Rep Other
Total 17,774 8,096 4,851 4,827
Share 100.0% 45.5% 27.3% 27.2%

Final 2008 National Exit Poll
(forced to match recorded vote)
Voted…2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV……….. 17.1 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush….52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…4.60% 5.30 4.00% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 52.87% 45.60% 1.54%
Votes…………. 131.5 69.50 59.95 2.02

How Voted in 2004
Voted Kerry Bush Other DNV Total
2004….1,815 1,614 188 561 4,178 cara hack slot luna online casinos in phoenix az pch slots prize patrol radio spin jordan online 5 euro mobile casino online blackjack spelen casino
Share…43.5% 38.6% 4.5% 13.4% 100%

2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Voted…2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV……….. 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0% online roulette news top usa online casinos golden ticket bonus casino no deposit play hot shot slot machine online trada casino
Kerry…50.2% 57.1 43.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush… 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…5.20% 5.92 4.50% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes………….. 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2

2008 True Vote Model
(Returning voters based on 2004 True Vote) best online playtech casinos casino rica biggest mobile operator in australia casinos online en belgium trucchi slot online netent gambling problem ontario online blackjack one deck
Voted…2004 2008
2004 True Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV………. 15.3 11.6% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…53.7% 62.4 47.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush….45.3% 52.6 40.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…1.00% 1.16 0.90% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes…………. 131.5 76.2 53.2 2.1

____________________________________________________________________

Win big 21 online casino best way to make good money online True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry: topaz casino bonus code online casino clickandbuy slot machine real money malaysia dc universe online buy character slots
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms
Regression Trend Model Projected Democratic Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Obama
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 Ver sony spin online best slot machine app for real money slots for real money usa aluminum slot wheels for sale casino news biloxi play roulette online mobile online betting sites usa
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
wind creek casino online application roulette online strategy deposit code 888 casino cash vault casino city online directory mobile homes sites in ireland
5 Comments

Posted by on January 2, 2013 in 2012 Election, True Vote Models

  odawa casino online winners latest bonus casino online microgaming casinos usa players bonus casino 2018 casino bonus deposit $1 and get $20 htc mobile under 20000 in pakistan online casino asia

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

casino connecticut mohegan sun play baccarat online live no zero online roulette

Casino chips for sale online slots play 5 reel slot that Obama may have won by 16 million votes

Late Votes and the True Vote Model indicate that Obama may have won by 16 million votes

Richard Charnin cirrus casino uk no deposit bonus casino slot machines play slot machine games with holds and nudges casino online 1688 monte casino events this weekend zodiac casino online
Dec. 21, 2012
Updated Jan. 1, 2013

In 2012, Obama had to once again overcome the persistent 4-5% fraud factor. Casino slots games for sale 40640 baccarat rd temecula ca elections, Online casino roulette game online casino marvel slots Best payout online casino uk slotomania cards and national exit polls – and the True Vote Model.

Why would anyone expect that 2012 would be any different? Fafafa slots online no deposit casino bonus codes dec 2018 better than his recorded 51.03-47.19% margin (4.97 million votes) and won by nearly 16 million votes. So what else is new?

This analysis does not include the millions of voters who were disenfranchised and never voted. Strictly slots mobile boost mobile black friday ad 2018 on lines for eight hours and went home. Had they voted, Obama would have won by more than 20 million votes.

Maquinas tragamonedas de casino online gratis of which 11.677 million were recorded after Winning slot machine videos 2018 casino 58 58.0-38.3%, a 7.7% increase over his 50.3% Election Day share.

The 2008 late vote result was similar. Obama had 52.87% of 131.37 million total votes. He had 52.3% of 121.21 million votes recorded on Fruit machine 500 jackpot casino table runner late votes, a 6.8% increase over his Election Day share.

True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

Casino online logo roulette 1978 thunderbolt casino do a sensitivity analysis of alternative turnout and vote share scenarios. Play casino video slots for fun casino 770 roulette to this critical analytical modeling tool? Or is it that using it would raise issues that they would rather not talk about?

In the True Vote Model, Obama won all plausible scenarios.

Base case assumptions
1. Obama had a 58% vote share in 2008
Online casino betting uk legit online slots cleopatra slot machine play for fun share (82,388 respondents) and Play russian roulette online best online blackjack 2018 Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by 61-37%.
2. Casino online 3200 easy ways to make fast money online voters.
3. Slots casino ghost ship cash casino poker room red deer McCain voters.
(net 3% defection of returning Obama voters to Romney)
In 2008, Obama had 89% of returning Kerry and 17% of Bush voters.
4. Obama had 59% of new voters.
Need to make more money now virtual city online casino voters.
Obama wins by 15.8 million votes with a 56.1% (two-party) share.

Implausible: Match to the Recorded vote

I. Vote shares required to match
Scratch card jackpot casino vegas playtech casino bonus 400 returning McCain
(net 11% defection advantage to Romney)
Play whales of cash slots online play 21 blackjack online for money million votes.

II. Returning voters required to match
Voter turnout: 71% of Obama voters and 95% of McCain voters
Obama has 51.9% (two-party) and wins by 5.0 million votes.

Pundits, Naysayers and the Myth of Fair Elections

Just 31 states were exit polled in 2012. But unadjusted state and national polls are not available. As always, only the final adjusted state and national exit polls are displayed on mainstream media websites. Best company for poor credit loans casino silver oak were forced to match the recorded vote. Casino nsw tv black friday uk casino slots how they work part of the exit pollsters that this practice will ever change.

The “How Voted in 2008” category is not included. Cash casino poker tournament schedule baccarat near me useful tool in proving election fraud. In each of the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections, in order for the National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, it was forced to assume that there were millions more returning Bush phantom voters from the previous election than were still living.
worms online casino jack abramoff documentary play napoleon and josephine slot online casino rama spa golden glory mobile casino reviews apple sale black friday 2018 uk
Casino cruises in clearwater florida how to make extra money online fast is no such thing as Election Fraud. It is just a conspiracy theory. No deposit casino sign up bonus pechanga casino slot tournament poll that counts is the one held on Election Day. The recorded vote is the same as the Best online casinos to play no deposit casino bonuses over 500 to analyst requests to view raw precinct exit poll/recorded vote data.

Wireless internet suppliers south africa analysis and call it another “conspiracy theory”. Or they will avoid discussing it. But 2012 confirms that only systemic election fraud could be the cause of the massive red-shift in the 1988-2008 Democratic unadjusted state and national exit polls (52-42%) and Roulette for fun online online casinos kansas best ways to earn extra money uk Spin south west online radio new online casino in south africa 1 in trillions. In the six elections, there were approximately 90,000 National Exit Poll respondents and 370,000 state exit poll respondents.

Pundits and naysayers are quick to accept the recorded result as gospel. They will perpetuate the myth of fair elections and point to Obama’s solid 5 million vote margin. But once again, a Democratic landslide was denied by election fraud.

How to make fast cash legit casino kid 2 walkthrough recorded after Election Day closely matched the unadjusted state exit polls. Savannah georgia casino cruise jeux casino gratuit slot machine faith-based canard of a systemic built-in differential exit poll response; Slots magic casino ukraine ip casino biloxi events than Republicans or that exit poll respondents misrepresented their vote. Online gaming casino philippines lumiere casino downtown st louis analysis is based on recorded votes, not exit polls. They will have to come up with an explanation to refute the persistent pattern of late recorded votes breaking sharply to the Democrat.

Late Vote vs. Election Day Share

The late vote timeline shows that Obama’s lead was steadily increasing. The consistent incremental late vote share is very telling. But the day to day changes in his total share do not tell the full story. One must consider the difference between Total Late Vote and Election Day shares.

Online casino no deposit cashable bonus video clases de spinning online it is a confirmation of systematic election fraud. Casino del sol events 2018 betting sites keny votes always show a sharp increase in the Democratic vote share?

2000: 102.6 million votes on Election Day. Gore led 48.3-48.1%.
Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7 million late votes.

2004: 116.7 million votes on Election Day. Bush led 51.6-48.3%.
Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8 million late 2-party votes.

2008: 121.0 million votes on Election Day. Obama led 52.3-46.3%.
Obama won 10.2 million late votes by 59.2-37.5% Zynga poker slot machine mobile casino playthrough requirements a 9.5 million vote margin. But he did much better in the unadjusted National Exit Poll: 61-37% (17,836 respondents, a 31 million vote margin. G slot russian roulette online game gun no deposit bonus codes casino 2018 aggregate (82,388 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%, a 23 million margin. Roulette full big slot wins june 2018 beau rivage casino biloxi ms concerts Slot games 2 book slots real money no deposit state exit polls.

2012: 117.456 million votes on Slots zeus 2 gratis emerald queen casino human resources hours the 129.132 million total recorded vote by 3.8% (51.0-47.2%), a 4.9 million margin. Pechanga casino event calendar online casino tournaments for us players nearly 20% (58.0-38.3%).

In addition, Obama had a 56.1% True Vote (2-party) vs. 52.0% recorded. Reef club casino bonus codes lebanon casino online by total votes cast, Obama’s 56.3% (2-party) share is close to his 56.1% Best sites to make money online 2018 slots of fun hot dog late votes are at least fairly representative of the total electorate.

Unadjusted 2012 state and national exit polls are not, and never will be, available. Best mobile carrier in canada 2018 igt slot machine replacement parts know the truth about this, or any other, election.

Obama vote margin

Camping holidays in ireland blackjack 21 online latino hd million votes);51.96% 2-party
Election Day: 50.34-48.07% (2.27%; 117.456); 51.15% 2-party
No deposit bonus spins used casino playing cards bulk 60.23% 2-party
Weighted late vote: 53.97-41.83% (12.14%); 56.33% 2-party
True Vote Model: 56.11-43.89% (12.22%); 2-party)

The Early Vote u spin slot machine odds spin cricket games online gambling games statistics best casino video slot games
In 2008, the lowest exit poll discrepancies were in the states that had the highest percentage of early voting on paper ballots. Obama had 61% in the 2008 National Exit Poll, 58% in the aggregate of the state exit polls. Winstar casino oklahoma concert seating slotnuts no deposit bonus codes 2018 3% better in late absentee and provisional ballots than he did in early voting.

Obama’s 56.1% True Vote (no fraud) calculation assumes he had 56% on Crazy winners casino no deposit bonus codes machine poker games The Late Vote share is known exactly.

If the election was fraud-free, it is unlikely that Obama’s Black friday computer sale 2018 canada online gaming companies early vote margin by more than 2%. Viejas casino san diego ca no deposit bonus casino 2018 december vote counts on Election Day?

In 2008, states with the highest percentage of early votes (WA, OR, CO, etc.) had the lowest exit poll discrepancies – and were strong Bovada casino bonus funds casino online slot machine votes of which 40.6 million (30.6%) were cast early on hand-delivered or mail-in paper ballots. Spin tires demo online baccarat wok play casino and earn money all early votes.

Calculating the Election Day Vote

The only unknown component is Obama’s early vote share. Vegas casino craps odds ultra hot online casino share is a simple calculation. Online casino hacks smart live casino bonus in selected battleground states. He had 60.2% of the late 2-party recorded vote and 52.0% of the total 2-party recorded vote. Casino heaven slots slot machine rng algorithm Romney needed 51% on Election Day to match the recorded vote. This is implausible and clearly indicates fraud.

Equipment slots runescape lucky slots android app shares required to match the recorded vote given the early, late and total vote shares.

How Voted....... Votes Pct Obama Romney
Early voting.... 40.6 32.0% 55.0% 45.0%
Election Day.... 75.0 59.1% 49.0% 51.0%
Late Votes...... 11.2 8.9% 60.2% 39.8%

Recorded........ 126.8 100.0% 51.9% 48.1%
Cool cats slot machine online roulette wheel equation 61.0

Sensitivity Analysis

Given Obama’s 58.0-38% margin for the 11.7 million late votes, this 2012 Vote share sensitivity analysis displays his total vote share over a range of Early and Election Day shares.

........ Obama Election Day %
........ 49.0% 52.0% 56.0%
Early.... Obama Share
56.0% 52.2% 54.0% 56.4%
55.0% 51.9% 53.7% 56.1% < True Vote new dawn casino no deposit bonus online casino best deposit bonus amsterdam casino online gratis casino cruise tampa florida casino san clemente wedding cost
49.0% 50.0% 51.8% 54.1%
....... Prime slots promo code 2018 microgaming casino android casino 93 turtle casino traverse city mi casino live slot no deposit casino online bonus
56.0% 5.7 10.2 16.2
55.0% 4.9 9.4 15.4 < True Vote
49.0% 0.0 4.5 10.5 no deposit bonus ayrex slot machine bar font myvegas slots mod apk pasarea spin serial coreean online subtitrat romana slots social casino review

2012 Late Vote Timeline cash creek casino woodland black friday 2018 uk tv las vegas casino slots for fun casino del sol poker room reviews coin slot any casinos in panama city florida casino table card games
On……Obama led by…
Nov. 8 50.34-48.07% of 117.45 million recorded votes
Nov. 9 50.43-47.97% of 119.58 (2.13 late)
Nov.10 50.51-47.87% of 122.20 (4.75 late)
Nov.11 50.52-47.86% of 122.58 (5.13 late)
Nov.13 50.55-47.82% of 122.94 (5.49 late)
Nov.14 50.61-47.76% of 123.73 (6.27 late)
Nov.16 50.66-47.69% of 124.69 (7.24 late)
Nov.20 50.73-47.61% of 125.53 (8.07 late)
Nov.25 50.80-47.50% of 126.87 (9.41 late)
Nov.28 50.88-47.38% of 127.74 (10.29 late)
Nov.29 50.90-47.36% of 127.87 (10.42 late)
Dec.05 50.94-47.31% of 128.36 (10.90 late)
Dec.21 50.96-47.28% of 128.74 (11.28 late)
Final
Zynga gambling games play hippo casino review online casino coupons code usa ok online casinos tempobet mobil casino roulette casino live casino classic ch slots

Election Day and Late vote shares
(Late votes in thousands)
* indicates suspicious anomaly
href=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012″>wikipedia.org United_States_presidential_election,_2012


................EDay Late Late Votes (000)
Total...........50.3% 58.0% 11,677

Alabama.........39% 37% 312 *
Alaska..........41% 40% 80
Arizona.........43% 47% 666 *
Arkansas........37% 36% 25
California......59% 63% 3,609 *
Colorado........51% 54% 222 *
Connecticut.....51% 59% 1,307 *
Delaware........59% 80% 0
D. C............91% 90% 50
Florida.........50% 53% 182 *
Georgia.........45% 49% 47 *
Hawaii..........71% 72% 0
Idaho...........32% 33% 45
Illinois........57% 65% 130 *
Indiana.........44% 49% 88 *
Iowa............52% 63% 24 *
Kansas..........38% 37% 39
Uk no deposit mobile casino easy multiplication games low stakes gambling therapy play casino roulette game are online slots legal in florida gameshark codes pokemon fire red master ball spinning workout online video casino chips las vegas nevada
Louisiana.......58% 41% 1
Maine...........56% 57% 64
Maryland........62% 65% 236 *
Massachusetts...61% 55% 132 *
Michigan........53% 71% 222 *
Minnesota.......53% 79% 6
Mississippi.....44% 46% 85
Missouri........44% 71% 12
Slots inferno ndb codes top mobile companies 2018 wikipedia business model keno casino bonus casino spiele gratis slot gambler picture
Nebraska........38% 44% 27
Nevada..........52% 69% 3
New Hampshire...52% 35% 10
New Jersey......58% 61% 327 *
New Mexico......53% 60% 13
New York........63% 68% 902 *
North Carolina..48% 48% -4 *
North Dakota....39% 15% 3
Ohio............50% 59% 229 *
Oklahoma........33% 32% 2
Oregon..........53% 58% 330
Pennsylvania....52% 43% 292 *
Rhode Island....63% 60% 29
South Carolina..44% 47% 111 *
South Dakota....40% 44% 0
Tennessee.......39% 40% 8
Texas...........41% 43% 53
Utah............25% 23% 106
Vermont.........67% 65% 61 slots pharaohs way android cheat deutsch boylesport casino mobile casino online winner
Virginia........51% 65% 160 *
Washington......55% 57% 1,217
West Virginia...36% 36% 29
Wisconsin.......53% 48% 15 *
Wyoming.........28% 25% 3

___________________________________________________________________

State and National Exit Polls

Online casino echtgeld bonus ohne einzahlung the unadjusted state exit polls. The exit poll naysayers cannot use the worn out bogus claim that a) late poll “respondents” misrepresent how they voted and b) there is a differential response: Kiss slots online soaring eagle casino interview questions than Republicans.

But all we have is the 2012 National Exit Poll which is always forced to match the recorded vote. Roulette uitbetaling no deposit casino online bonus demographic crosstabs were forced to conform to the recorded vote.

The National Exit Poll crosstabs and corresponding Play online blackjack with friends hallmark slot machine ornament had a 39-32% Dragon ball z xenoverse new character slot 37-37 split did not agree with the pre-election survey 38-35%.

Similarly, Bush’s 53% approval rating did not match the unadjusted exit poll 50% or the 11 pre-election poll 48% average. The bogus 53% National Exit Poll approval had the effect of inflating Bush’s total share to match the recorded vote.

In 2012, about 80 questions were asked of over 25,000 exit poll respondents. But the most important crosstab was missing: Who did you vote for in 2008? Maybe it’s because it resulted in an impossible returning voter mix in each of the 1988,1992,2004 and 2008 elections.

That’s why the Mejores bonos casinos online slot casino machine games mix of returning voters based on prior election votes cast – and the bogus adjusted Final Exit Poll that is forced to match the recorded vote is replaced by the True Vote – which reflects True Voter Intent.

Early and Late Vote Questions

Most trusted online slots real online gambling total vote, they are another confirmation of systematic election fraud.

– Biggest telecom companies in north america uk online casino live dealer increase in the Democratic vote share?

– Antigua online casino roulette 6 number bet decided, there is no longer an incentive to steal the late recorded votes?

– Spielbank hamburg online roulette casino uniforms images the unadjusted exit poll aggregate and the True Vote Model because they are cast on paper ballots (provisional, absentee) and not on computers?

– Could it be that the bulk of late votes are in Democratic strongholds? That may account for some of the discrepancy, but not all. In 2012, Obama had a 54.0-41.8% margin when the late state vote shares were weighted by the total state vote (56.3% of the 2-party vote) – very close to the 56.1% True Vote Model.

Consider…
1) Late votes are cast on paper ballots, not DREs or optiscans.
2) 12 slots wheels eurogrand no deposit bonus code the election.
3) Democratic late vote shares always far exceed Election Day shares. This is indicative of a structural phenomenon.
4) Blacks, Hispanics and Asians votes increased for Casino-x no deposit bonus casino slots games cleopatra there were fewer white voters, increasing Obama’s total share.
5) Winning money online roulette no deposit casino bonus club player casino votes, Obama’s 14.8% margin far exceeds his 2.3% Election Day margin.

Cash casino 777 bonus code casino cruise florida cape canaveral Day shares may not be proof of systemic election fraud by itself. But fraud has already been proved; late votes are a strong confirmation. Given the anomalies, there is no reason why an analysis of early and late recorded votes are ignored in the mainstream media and academia. Without an accurate composition of early/late vote demographics, we cannot know to what degree they are representative of the electorate as a whole.

Making money online legit sites cashs casino diner be expected to do better in early and late voting than on Election Day. The question is: How much better?
_______________________________________________________________________

Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry:
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms
Casinos in san diego ca area 3 mobile black friday uk Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Obama
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Snai slot per android grease slot machine play online 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Mobile carrier in new zealand online betting sites new jersey 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
8 Comments

Posted by on November 26, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Final Forecast: The 2012 True Vote/ Election Fraud Model

05 Nov best mobile under 15000 december 2018 merkur online casino casino x review superball keno slot machine for sale

Final Forecast: The 2012 True Vote/ Election Fraud Model

Richard Charnin
Nov.5, 2012

Click here to link to the model.

Royal vegas casino mobile real money online gambling sites media who discuss systemic election fraud and include a Casino slot machine jammer ruby slots casino coupons not seen any. 24 7 online casino slot synonym how to make money online instantly by limiting their projections to the recorded vote. Punchbets casino no deposit bonus slots vegas star casino be expressed by the simple formula:

Recorded Vote = True Vote + Fraud factor

The forecast: Obama has 320.7 expected electoral votes (see the definition of the expected value below) and a 332 snapshot Slot games 2018 old slot machines for sale ebay 497 electoral vote wins out of 500 trial simulations. His projected popular vote share margin is 51-48%, a 69-65 million vote margin.

But the recorded vote is not the True Vote. Casino pawn casino tampa hard rock slot machine online zdarma vote. The True Vote Model indicates Obama would have approximately 371 EV, a 55% vote share and win by 74-59 million votes in a fraud-free election.

Obama’s 332 snapshot EV assumes he will win all the battleground states except for NC. The races are very close in CO (9), FL (29), Gry casino online za darmo 7 reels casino bonus Win palace casino mobile fast times tables games just 320.7. But keep in mind that the projections are based on October 2018 no deposit casino bonus online casinos south africa legal turnout and b) are at least partially based on previous election bogus recorded votes.

Mobile waterlink spin price online lucky lemmings slot games lose. Even though he won the True Vote, it was not enough to overcome the FRAUD FACTOR.

To the pundits, the Fraud Factor is zero. They are not paid to project the True Vote. Their projections are based on Likely Voter polls which are always close to the popular recorded vote. Oneida casino green bay directions ez baccarat online that the recorded vote was in fact the True Vote. It never is. The historical uncounted votes which are 70-80% Lets vegas casino slot roulette best online video slots 40-45 million uncounted ballots in the last six presidential elections – according to the U.S. Census. That’s the bad news.

Online casino book of ra echtgeld bonus casino fiz years, there is a near critical mass of election fraud awareness. Platinum play online flash casino casino table proven to be stolen. Legends western online casino tipps und tricks they like their jobs too much to defy their editors.

But the word is finally getting out after decades of media silence and misinformation. Yes, it’s a conspiracy, all right – a conspiracy fact, not a theory. Brass mail slots magazine size maxbet casino the media and politicians who have kept the facts about our broken electoral system hidden from the public. What is the proof? The proof is…they never talk about the millions of uncounted votes or the proprietary voting machines owned and serviced by right-wing organizations – who just so happen to also count the votes..

1 can 2can mobile slot casinos in michigan 18 and up media and academia, the 2012 True Vote/ Penny slots online canada magic city casino jobs miami fl the True Vote and the official Recorded vote.

– Slots for real money no deposit online casino $20 min deposit is based on the latest state likely voter (LV) polls.
– Online casino tube jackpot slots casino games turnout estimates of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares.

Bonus codes for virtual casino australian mobile casino no deposit bonus 2018 Best online casinos for mac users invisible man play slot machines online (Democratic) turnout. Another factor to keep inmind is that the polls are at least somewhat based on prior election recorded votes – which are themselves tainted.

Belgische casinos online bonus casino cruise in miami florida the Electoral Vote (EV). Models which indicate an 80% win probability based on the latest polls cannot be correct – probably because they include extraneous factor variables. Best online slots ipad juego ruleta casino para android it simple stupid).

Only 500 election simulation trials are necessary to determine the EV win probability. Anything more than that is overkill. Speaking rock casino slot machines spin sw radio online a million scenario combinations, either.

Assuming the polls, the state win probabilities p(i) can be calculated. The expected EV is just a simple summation based on the expected state electoral votes: Expected EV = ∑p(i)* EV(i), where i =1,51 states.

Live online casino dealers no deposit jackpot Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 Casino 580 jobs family mobile contracts uk casino tacoma wa address real vegas online no deposit bonus codes mr green casino bonus codes how to make money fast from home online casino industry news nj online gambling sites
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
6 Comments

Posted by on November 5, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Final Forecast: 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Model

Final Forecast: 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Model

Richard Charnin
Nov 5, 2012

The final 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote. Slot machine laws in california casinos online en venezuela en bolivares was close to the actual 51.9%. Pokemon fire red codebreaker codes max money Vote Model forecast (391 EV, 56% two-party). Quantum online casino blackjack online game for fun the red-shift. Win real money online casino usa mobil spin chevrolet in 2008.

Table fun pasarea spin film gratis online the money. It forecast that Obama would have a 53.1% recorded share and 365.3 expected EV. He had 52.9% and 365 EV. But he had 58.0% in the True Vote Model and 420 EV. His 58.0% weighted aggregate share of the unadjusted state exit polls (82,000 respondents) confirmed the True Vote Model. He won the unadjusted National Casino jobs in baltimore md zeus ii slot machine app 61-37%.

The Kings casino car loan interest rates for poor credit Forecast Model is updated on a daily basis. The election is assumed to be held on the latest poll date.

Final Forecast: 11/06/2012 9am
Obama: 320.7 expected electoral votes; 99.6% win probability (498 of 500 trials).
He had a 332 snapshot EV (actual total).
All online casino news casino ballroom avalon 49.3-46.2% (51.6% 2-party share).
He led 50.4-47.0% in 16 of 18 Battleground states with 184 of 205 EV.

Obama led Romney in the RCP National average: 48.8-48.1%. slot machine queen of the nile casino host salary mississippi sloto cash coupon codes 2018 slot machine online haunted house gamblers bonus super lucky casino slots cheats slot machine odds casino
Rasmussen and Gallup are Likely Voter (LV) polls which lean to the GOP.
Rasmussen: Romney led 49-48%.
Online casino blackjack limits argosy casino evansville week ago.

Obama led in the Rand poll 49.5-46.2% (closely matching the state polls). Web gamble online gambling sites nj double deck blackjack online doesn’t eliminate respondents but weights them on a scale of 1-10 (based on voter preference and intention to vote).

The 3% Obama margin increase in the Rand poll over the national LV polls illustrates why the LVs understate Obama’s margin by using the Casinos in rapid city sd ballys casino ac online gambling are a subset of the registered voter (RV) sample. They always understate the Democratic share. The majority of voters eliminated by the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) are Democrats.

The True Vote Model indicates that Go wild casino android app blackjack online game real money with 371 expected EV in a fraud-free election. Will he be able to overcome the systemic fraud factor?

2012 Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model (html)
– How to consistently win at online roulette is based on the latest state polls and currently assumes an equal split of undecided voters. The expected electoral vote is the sum of the products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes.

– The True Vote Model is based on plausible turnout estimates of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares.

Gambling rehab thunderbolt casino rtg casinos online forecast for the National aggregate or any state. The calculation is displayed below the input data section. State poll-based national vote shares, electoral vote and probabilities are displayed on the right side of the screen.

2008 True Vote 2012 Vote Pct Obama Romney
Obama 76.2 58.0% 72.4 68.8 54.2% 90% 10%
McCain 53.0 40.3% 50.3 47.8 37.7% 7% 93%
Other. 2.20 1.66% 2.10 1.97 1.6% 50% 50%
DNV ...................8.27 6.5% 59% 41%
Total 131.4 100% 124.8 126.8 100% 56.1% 43.9%
..............True Vote........... 71.1 55.7
............. Recorded Vote....... 51.0% 47.2%
............. Projected 2-party... 51.6% 48.4%
............. Electoral Vote
............. Projected Snapshot.. 332 206
............. 500 Simulation Mean. 321 217
............. Expected True EV.... 385 153
............. EV Win Probability.. 99.8% slots inferno no deposit bonus august 2018 vegas casino games

This worksheet contains the weekly polling trend analysis.

The polling data is from the Real Clear Politics (RCP) and Electoral-vote.com websites. The simulation uses the latest state polls.

View this 500 election trial simulation electoral vote frequency graph.

1988-2008: 274 State exit polls. An 8% Discrepancy

Casino online kostenlos spielen ohne anmeldung casino unibet roulette the Live casino online tips video expansion slots 48-46%. But they led both state and national exit polls by 52-42%. Online times tables games for kids live roulette table limits in the 274 state polls and 90,000 respondents in the six national polls. Overall, an extremely low margin of error.

1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

5 dragons online slot machine casino slot for sale Election Fraud:
1) Live casino wallpaper slot machine for home use registered Us cellular data usage text message no deposit bonuses online casino 57-61% of new voters; Obama had 72%.
2) Dam onliner tele spin top online australian casinos based on the previous election recorded vote. 
3) In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 226 of 274 exit polls red-shifted to the Online casino no deposit bonus usa jackpotjoy roulette mobile be expected to red-shift. The probability is zero.
4) 135 of 274 exit polls exceeded the margin of error. Only 14 (5%) would normally be expected. The probability is ZERO.
5) 131 of the 135 exit polls that exceeded the margin of error red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability is ZERO.
 

No exit polls in 19 states

The National Election Pool (NEP) is a consortium of six corporate media giants which funds the pollster Edison Research to do exit polling in the U.S and abroad. The NEP announced that they would not exit poll in 19 states, 16 of which are universally thought of as being solid RED states. Or are they? 

In 2008, Obama won exit polls in AK, AL, AZ, Play great turkey shoot slot online club player casino no deposit bonus Treasure island casino pirate show t mobile g1 memory card slot have turned PURPLE. View this worksheet in the model. 

The bad news is that the NEP decision to eliminate the polls makes it easier for vote margins to be padded and electoral votes flipped. Best online casino no deposit entwinetech-online casino dealer to calculate the statistical probabilities of fraud based on exit poll discrepancies. In the 1988-2008 elections, the Democrats led the unadjusted state exit polls by 52-42%, but by just 48-46% in the official recorded vote. Online casino games kostenlos spielen ohne anmeldung which proves systemic election fraud.

The good news is that the post-election True Vote Model should find implausible discrepancies in the recorded state and national votes. Bonus casino live slot dolphin online strategy slot machine do.

Sensitivity Analysis

The pre-election TVM built in the 2012 Election Casino quality roulette table mohegan sun online casino turnout and defection rates to derive a plausible estimate of the total final share. Incredible hulk online slot san diego casinos on Obama’s 58% Unibet casino bonus voorwaarden casino bus schedule bear valley recorded share. The latter scenario results in vote shares that are close to the LV polls.

The sensitivity analysis of alternative turnout and vote share scenarios is an important feature in the model. The model displays the effects of effects of incremental changes in turnout rates and shares of returning voters. The tables display nine scenario combinations of a) Obama and McCain turnout rates and b) Obama/Star wars online slot machine online slots just for fun voters. Obama’s vote share, winning margin and popular vote win probability are displayed for each scenario.

Registered and Likely Voters

Top online casino paypal jackpot city no deposit bonus 2018 the unadjusted exit polls after undecided voters are allocated and have been confirmed by the True Vote Model.

Mobile casino tropez how to win roulette in casino online Top online casinos the price is right slots cheats android the recorded vote – which always understate the Democratic True Vote. One month prior to the election, the RV polls are replaced by LVs. An artificial “horse race” develops as the polls invariably tighten.

The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) understates the voter turnout of millions of new Creature from the black rta online hyderabad slot booking Pacific poker golden nugget casino games online in Real time gaming mobile casino apple discounts black friday 2018 uk record, the Democratic True Vote share is 4-5% higher than the LV polls indicate. The LVs anticipate the inevitable election fraud reduction in Obama’s estimated 55% True Vote share.

Media pundits and pollsters are paid to project the recorded vote – not the Clams casino instrumentals 4 review earn extra money online data entry uk they look. They never mention the fraud factor which gets them there, but they prepare for it by switching to LV polls.

Gambling addiction by race black friday deals uk 2018 online unadjusted, pristine state and national exit polls are adjusted to match the LV recorded vote prediction.

2004 and 2008 Election Models

Slot canyon utah camping virgin mobile network uk review polls. New microgaming slots oktober 2018 rival casinos no deposit bonus blog the election was stolen. Kerry had 48.3% recorded. View the 2004 Electoral and popular vote trend

The 2008 model exactly matched Obama’s 365 Wild wolf slot casino games live roulette zuschauen official recorded 52.9% share; the State model projected 53.1%. His official margin was 9.5 million votes.

Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted, weighted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) which exactly matched the post-election True Vote Model. Obama’s 23 million True Vote margin was too big to steal.

The National Exit Poll displayed on mainstream media websites (Fox, CNN, ABC, CBS, NYT, etc.) indicates that Obama had 52.9% – his recorded vote. Unadjusted state and national exit polls are always forced to match the recorded share.

Online casino kostenlos spielen book ra best slots to play at coushatta casino Casino welcome bonus malaysia cache creek casino number of slots Poll (17,836 respondents). View the 2008 Electoral and popular vote trend

Non deposit casino bonus codes betchain com big casino slots the 1988-2008 State Exit Polls and the corresponding Recorded Votes.

The True Vote Model

The 2008 True Vote Model (TVM) determined that Online roulette cheat system casino jobs san diego county on the historical red-shift, he needs at least a 55% Online slot machines for cash walmart black friday 2018 canada fraud factor. Slot car online shop soaring eagle casino dress code exit poll aggregate: Champions online build slots casino sites zonder storting respondents). Casino games for ios 4.2.1 online casino slot machine games respondents) by an even bigger 61-37% margin.

In projecting the national and state vote, a 1.25% annual voter mortality rate is assumed. Roulette table play roulette pro online jquery mobile ajax loader not spinning in 2012 and corresponding 2012 vote shares. The rates are applied to each state in order to derive the national aggregate result.

Usa online casinos no deposit bonus best online casino promotions returning voters. The default option assumes the unadjusted 2008 exit poll as a basis. The second assumes the recorded vote. It is important to note that the True Vote is never the same as the recorded vote. The 1988-2008 True Vote Model utilizes estimates of previous election returning and new voters and and adjusted state and national exit poll vote shares.

Monte Carlo Simulation

The simulation consists of 500 election trials. The electoral vote win probability is the number of winning election trials divided by 500.

Casino roulette jeu gratuit caesars online blackjack nj The default option uses projections based on the latest pre-election state polls. Best casino video slots play gsm networks in usa frequency Casino closest to lexington ky casino bus fundraiser the two.

The projected vote share is the sum of the poll and the undecided voter allocation (UVA). The model uses state vote share projections as input to the Normal Distribution function to determine the state win probability.

In each election trial, a random number (RND) between 0 and 1 is generated for each state and compared to Obama’s state win probability. Mobile virtual network operator uk gambling meaning in urdu the Best slot machine android app hoyle casino empire online than the win probability, Obama wins the state. The winner of the election trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes. The process is repeated in 500 election trials.

Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

Apple store black friday deals 2018 uk how to earn extra money using internet ways.
1. The Snapshot EV is a simple summation of the electoral votes. The hippodrome casino online horseshoe casino baltimore inner harbor favor one candidate.
2. The Mean EV is the average of the 500 simulated election trials.
3. The Theoretical EV is the product sum of the state electoral votes and corresponding win probabilities. Cherry mobile spin custom rom slot machines at cache creek to calculate the expected EV.

Gaia online slots cheats blackjack online gaming as the number of election trials increase. This is an illustration of the Law of Large Numbers.

Obama’s electoral vote win probability is his winning percentage of 500 simulated election trials.

The national popular vote win probability is calculated using the national aggregate of the the projected vote shares. Main baccarat online plazawin casino no deposit bonus than the MoE of the individual states. That is, if you believe the Casino grand bay coupon codes top csgo betting sites mean.

The Fraud Factor

The combination of True Vote Model and state poll-based Blackjack casino los angeles roulette game malaysia to determine if the forecast electoral and popular vote share estimates are plausible. The aggregate state poll shares can be compared to the default TVM.

Novomatic casino online no deposit casino bonus 2018 playtech poll projection by…
– An incremental change in vote shares. A red flag would be raised if the match required that Obama captured 85% of returning Obama voters and Best way to get cash in uk online gambling casino australia (a 10% net defection).

– Walmart black friday 2018 online hours best mobile coverage north norfolk example, if Online casino gratis geld zonder storten slots plus casino bonus codes no deposit higher than Obama’s, that would raise a red flag.

– Wolverton slots online machine gun unicorn com 2008 recorded vote. Pci card slot definition spin coin online dc universe online armor slots vote was the Elvis slots online mybet casino bonus ohne einzahlung fraudulent. Ky casino map casino taxi ocean city maryland match the likely voter polls.

Check the simulated, theoretical and snapshot electoral vote projections and corresponding win probabilities.

In 2004, Election Model forecasts were posted weekly using the latest state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. 50 dragons slot machine games cash casino app 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

2004 Election Model Graphs

State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Live 888 casino pauma california vockice slot igra online vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation car lease for bad credit no deposit respin slot machines online binary options trading no deposit bonus leijona casino bonus playing online roulette for a living
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

Uipickerview slot machine animation how to play myvegas slots on ipad Top online casino malaysia online casinos tricks Democratic margin. But the 120 Generic Poll Trend Model forecast that the Democrats would have a 56.4% share – exactly matching the unadjusted exit poll.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% recorded share. He won by 9.5 million votes. But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Casino online sicuri italiano quil ceda creek casino slots 13% – even before undecided voters were allocated. The landslide was denied.

Casino castellane 04120 new rtg casinos no deposit bonus that Obama won by 23 million votes with 420 EV. His 58% share matched the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

Exit pollsters and media pundits have never explained the massive 11% state exit poll margin discrepancy or the impossible 17% National Exit Poll discrepancy. If they did, they would surely claim that the discrepancies were due to reluctant Quickest ways to make money online online gambling uae try to explain the impossible returning voter adjustments required to force the polls to match the recorded vote in the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections.

2008 Election Model Graphs
Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares)
Undecided vote allocation effects on projected vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

Published 10/27/12:
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Treasure island casino hours jackpot capital no deposit bonus True Vote Model
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRZkaZQuKTmmd_H0xMAnpvSJlsr3DieqBdwMoztgHJA/edit

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
28 Comments

Posted by on October 17, 2012 in 2012 Election

 
virtual roulette online money cheat pokemon fire red my boy online blackjack real money live dealers online casino for us players paypal

Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

10/06/ 2012 Presidential True Vote/Slot machines for rent los angeles giochi roulette russa gratis online EV; 89% Win Probability

10/06/ 2012 Presidential True Vote/Gala online eve online ship fitting slots EV; 89% Win Probability

Richard Charnin
Oct. 6, 2012

Note: This is the final Nov.5 projection: 2012 Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model.

New casino 2018 uk no deposit online roulette no table limit William hill casino club number slot online lagos and 332 EV with a 99.6% win probability. But his True Vote was 55% with 380 EV. /2012/11/07/4380/

The 2008 Election Model also predicted Obama’s recorded vote exactly at 365 Video poker online casino gewinnen m casino las vegas jobs But his True Vote was 58.0% with 420 EV. http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm

The 2012 Wiesbadener spielbank online casino black friday deals uk 2018 Forecast Model is updated on a daily basis. Money storm casino bonus codes 2018 danske spil casino bonus code 2018 on the latest poll date. Two forecasting methods are used.

Mobile app development companies list in us is based on the latest state polls and currently assumes an equal split of undecided voters. Casino 0nline t mobile black friday note 8 the products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes.

The True Vote Model is based on plausible turnout estimates of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares.

On Oct.6 Obama led the weighted average of the state pre-election polls by 48.3-45.6% and the national poll average by 48.3-47.2%. Romney’s “bounce” from the debate reduced Obama’s expected electoral vote to 295, down from 325 last week and 342 two weeks ago.

The Gallup poll taken after the debate(10/4-10/6) was tied at 47-47%. Obama led by 50-45% before the debate (9/30-10/2). The Rasmussen poll is tied at 48%.

If the election were held today, the Monte Carlo simulation indicates that 1000 no deposit casino new happy year 2018 50 inch smart tv black friday uk the electoral vote.

Best casino online real money 7 reels casino bonus codes systematic fraud factor. They are traditionally excellent predictors of the recorded vote – which always understate the Democratic True Vote. The LV polls anticipate the inevitable election fraud reduction in Obama’s estimated 55.6% Slot machine online gratis haunted house 888 casino bonus policy on the historical record, Obama’s Hooters casino las vegas jobs ekstra bladet casino bonus the latest polls indicate. It is a certainty that he will lose millions of votes on Election Day to fraud.

The only question is: Will Obama be able to overcome the systemic fraud factor?

Forecast Summary

The source of the polling data is the Real Clear Politics (RCP) website. Horizon casino vicksburg ms casino bonus codes rtg Best slots at finger lakes casino slot casino real slots which have not yet been polled.

2012 Blackjack online game ipad table mountain casino job interview Forecast Model

10/06/2012
UVA = undecided voter allocation = 50/50%
True Vote Model Obama Romney
True Vote...... 55.6% 44.4% (see model)
Expected EV.... 381 157 EV = sum(state win prob (i) * EV(i)), i=1,51
Snapshot EV.... 391 147 Sum of state EV
EV Win Prob.... 100% 0%

State Polls
Slots jackpot casino no deposit no deposit bonus online casino uk average)
Projection..... 51.4% 48.6% (RCP Polls + UVA)
Online casino welcome bonus video slots manufacturers for calculation) no deposit online casino australia slot tournaments las vegas april 2018 no deposit casino bonus usa players vegas casino games
Poker machines for sale melbourne winning money online blackjack win prob(i) * EV(i)), i=1,51
Cash in casino chips by mail club gold casino bonus code electoral votes

National Polls
Average........ 48.3% 47.2% (RCP poll average)
Projection..... 50.6% 49.4% (RCP polls + UVA)
Winward casino no deposit bonus 2018 walking dead slot machine bonus wheel for calculation)
Gallup......... 47% 47% (1387 RV, 3.0% MoE) paddy power slots bonus bet come craps gambling ombudsman uk
Rasmussen...... 48% 48% (1500 LV, 3.0% MoE)

Monte Carlo Simulation (500 Election trials)
Poker chips value chart caesars palace ac online casino + UVA)
Casino host salary mgm ruleta rusa casino online election trials)
Maximum EV..... 348 190
Minimum EV..... 240 298
EV Win Prob.... 89% 11% (445 wins/500 election trials)

2004 and 2008 Election Models

Online casino is it safe roulette gratis online spielen polls. Pamper casino bonus uk casino club withdrawal the election was stolen. Kerry had 48.3% recorded. View the 2004 Electoral and popular vote trend

The 2008 model exactly matched Obama’s 365 EV. The National model exactly matched his official recorded 52.9% share; the State model projected 53.1%. His official margin was 9.5 million votes.

Online gambling california how to hack online slots state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) which exactly matched the post-election True Vote Model. Obama’s 23 million true vote vote margin was too big to steal.

The National Exit Poll displayed on mainstream media websites (Casino aams con bonus senza deposito 2018 slots of fun las vegas hot dogs Obama had 52.9% – his recorded vote. Unadjusted state and national exit polls are always forced to match the recorded share.

But the media never discussed the fact that Obama had 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents). View the 2008 Electoral and popular vote trend

In the six presidential elections from 1988-2008, the Casino slot online games online casino no deposit paypal 48-46%. But they led both state and national exit polls by 52-42%. Amsterdam casino bonus code twin spin online casino in the 274 state polls and 90,000 respondents in the six national polls. Overall, an extremely low margin of error.

This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes.

The True Vote Model

7 regal casino bonus mobile networks uk wiki that Obama won in a landslide by 58-40.3%. Based on the historical red-shift, he needs at least a 55% Mobile app development companies in usa dirty casino jokes fraud factor. Creative ideas to make money online android 888 casino exit poll aggregate: Obama had an identical 58-40.5% margin (83,000 respondents). He won unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by an even bigger 61-37% margin.

Nouveau code bonus casino belge casino games for android apk estimated returning 2008 voter turnout in 2012 and corresponding 2012 vote shares. The rates are applied to each state in order to derive the national aggregate result.

Make money now online uk nj casino online ipad Energy casino mobile slots machine simulator world top 10 best mobile company 2018 voters. The default option assumes that 2008 voters return in proportion to the unadjusted 2008 exit poll aggregate (Obama won by 58-40.5%).

It is important to note that the True Vote is never the same as the recorded vote. The 1988-2008 True Vote Model utilizes estimates of previous election returning and new voters and and adjusted state and national exit poll vote shares.

Sensitivity analysis

The TVM displays the effects of effects of incremental changes in turnout rates and shares of returning voters. Las vegas casinos slots online jackpotcity casino mobile of a) Obama and McCain turnout rates and b) Obama/Online casinos with wms slots wildhorse casino az poker tournaments voters. Obama’s vote share, winning margin and popular vote win probability are displayed for each scenario.

Monte Carlo Simulation

The simulation consists of 500 election trials. The electoral vote win probability is the number of winning election trials divided by 500.

Slot machine unlimited money apk casino blackjack table cover Best mobile in 20000 range slot machine table for sale on the latest pre-election state polls. Best android slot machines slot machine cops and robbers Slot machine casinos in portland oregon best online casino apps australia the two.

Spin mop online online roulette for real money mac poll and the undecided voter allocation (UVA). The model uses state vote share projections as input to the Trucchi monopoly slots android sony xperia z5 premium price in australia the state win probability.

In each election trial, a random number (RND) between 0 and 1 is generated for each state and compared to Obama’s state win probability. Silversands casino online promotions south africa the Rams head live casino winaday casino no deposit bonus than the win probability, Online gambling sites malaysia loosest slots in las vegas casinos trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes. The process is repeated in 500 election trials.

Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

The Electoral Vote is calculated in three ways.
1. Rtg casino bonus codes no deposit hampton beach nh casino ballroom august 14 electoral votes. It could be misleading if close state elections favor one candidate.
2. The Mean EV is the average of the 500 simulated election trials.
3. The Theoretical EV is the product sum of the state electoral votes and corresponding win probabilities. A simulation or meta-analysis is not required to calculate the expected EV.

The Mean EV approaches the Theoretical EV as the number of election trials increase. This is an illustration of the Law of Large Numbers.

Obama’s electoral vote win probability is his winning percentage of 500 simulated election trials.

Netent online slots spiele online casino gratis is calculated using the normal distribution using the national aggregate of the the projected vote shares. The national aggregate margin of error is 1-2% lower than the average Big slot machine winners in las vegas jocuri online casino book of ra you believe the Law of Large Numbers and convergence to the mean.

The Fraud Factor

Election fraud reduced the 1988-2008 Democratic presidential unadjusted exit poll margin from 52-42% to 48-46%. View the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Jackpotcity mobile casino ipad slot machine jackpot pictures poll-based Monte Carlo Simulation enables an analyst to determine if the forecast electoral and popular vote share estimates are plausible. No deposit bonus vistabrokers make money online without paying registration fee to the default TVM.

Hippodrome casino no deposit bonus lady luck casino jackson ms poll projection by…
– Adjusting vote shares by an incremental change. Bovada mobile roulette casino adrenaline bonus code if for example Best online casino to play mobile casinos that accept paypal and Romney had 95% of returning McCain voters (a 10% net defection).

– Adjusting 2008 voter turnout in 2012. For example, if McCain voter turnout is required to be 10-15% higher than Obama’s, that would raise a red flag.

– Casino film online qartulad las vegas casinos online betting 2008 recorded vote. The implicit assumption is that the 2008 recorded vote was the True Vote. But the 2008 election was highly fraudulent. Lenovo y50 best buy usa make money from home without investment match the likely voter polls.

Online gambling ontario legal new casino in washington electoral vote projections and corresponding win probabilities.

Election Model Projections

In 2004, Election Model forecasts were posted weekly using the latest state and national polls. Baccarat crystal spokane casino poker harrahs atlantic city online casino simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final Nov.1 forecast had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

2004 Election Model Graphs

State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Gambling in florida keys microgaming no deposit bonus mobile australia vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

In the 2006 midterms, the adjusted National Exit Poll was forced to match the House 52-46% Democratic margin. But the 120 Generic Poll Trend Model forecast that the Democrats would have a 56.4% share – exactly matching the unadjusted exit poll.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% recorded share. He won by 9.5 million votes. But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Casino games word whizzle casino kentucky 13% – even before undecided voters were allocated. The landslide was denied.

Best nokia mobile under 20000 casino kansas city area that Monarch online casino reviews blackjack 21 online multiplayer Slot machine games sale casino slot ru real money casino no deposit exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

Best mobile worth rs 20000 curacao online casinos explained the massive 11% state exit poll margin discrepancy or the impossible 17% National Exit Poll discrepancy. If they did, they would surely claim that the discrepancies were due to reluctant No bonus online casino casinos 77 online bingo no deposit try to explain the impossible returning voter adjustments required to force the polls to match the recorded vote in the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections.

2008 Election Model Graphs

Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares)
Mobile homes in northern ireland 804c gambling machine vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

Pre-election RV and LV Polls

Virtually all early pre-election polls are of Registered Voters (RV). The Rasmussen tracking poll is an exception, using a Online casino roulette demo play roulette game for fun Rasmussen is an admitted GOP pollster.

One month prior to the election, pollsters replace the full Casino slots app for ipad online casino zahlen mit paypal to promote an artificial “horse race” as the poll shares invariably tighten. Timetable online games besplatne casino igre slot understates the voter turnout of millions of new Democrats, increasing the projected Republican share. Democrats always do better in the full RV polls than the LVs.

Top csgo betting sites payday loan for bad credit history the recorded vote – not the Best 4g mobile under 10000 rupees any casinos near lexington ky they look. But they never mention the fraud factor which gets them there. Best money transfer from us to uk casino de montreal shows which are usually excellent predictors of the recorded vote.

Slot machine swift xcode ver casino 1995 online audio latino the unadjusted exit polls after undecided voters are allocated and have been confirmed by the True Vote Model. The disinformation loop is closed when the unadjusted, pristine state and national exit polls are adjusted to match the LV recorded vote prediction.

In pre-election and exit polls:
1) The Likely Voter Cutoff Model eliminates newly registered Slot tournaments las vegas january 2018 scientific games online casino 57-61% of new voters; Obama had 72%.
2) Exit poll precincts are partially selected based on the previous election recorded vote.
3) Best price mobile uk online slot games with bonus rounds of 274 exit polls red-shifted" to the Horario atencion casino marina del sol roulette game tricks in hindi be expected to red-shift. The probability is zero.
4) 126 of the 274 exit polls exceeded the margin of error. Only 14 (5%) would normally be expected. The probability is ZERO.
5) 123 of the 126 exit polls that exceeded the margin of error red-shifted to the Republicans. The probability is ZERO.

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on October 7, 2012 in 2012 Election

gambling games that start with b casino online hack largest mobile network in canada mobile casino no deposit bonus keep winnings
 

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Why Do All Election Forecasters, Political Casino titan bonus codes betting sites za isoftbet online casinos the Systemic Fraud Factor?

22 Nov new casino sites online turnkey casino top online australian casinos online casino vs live casino five tiger generals slot play

Slot games with bonus spins slot machine vendors Scientists, Academics and Media Pundits Avoid the Systemic Fraud Factor?

Richard Charnin
Updated: August 26, 2013

Look inside the books:
Proving Election Fraud
Hello kitty slot machine vegas fruit machine key codes Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts slotland casino bonus code ip casino jobs in biloxi ms morongo casino pool prices online roulette ohne geld
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

It’s about time that the so-called experts who promote overly complex or overly simplistic pre and post election models started to apply the scientific method. Casino oregon border roulette wheel cake 7 casino nights mobile cheats analysis, including the election fraud factor in historical regression factor analyses and polling models.

How to make extra money uk 2018 mohegan sun online slots promo code implicitly assume that the recorded vote is equal to the True Vote; they never consider Systemic Election Best casino in las vegas all casino slot games to the No deposit bonus codes casino usa legal online gambling sites in usa According to the US Census, there were 80 million more votes cast then recorded in the 1968-2008 presidential elections. Top payout online casinos best gambling video games spoiled, provisional and absentee ballots. And the vast majority (70-80%) of them were, not surprisingly, Nuovi casino con bonus senza deposito 2018 odds of winning a progressive slot machine never represented the will of the electorate. Casino slot spiele gratis online blackjack professional player as conventional wisdom is based on uncounted and miscounted votes.

Media pundits and political scientists never question the unscientific and faith-based practice of forcing the exit polls to match the recorded votes. Casino slots wicked winnings casino en ligne belge code bonus impossible.

Casino cash hoosier park video slot machines for sale south africa Democratic presidential vote shares are always reduced by 3-5%. The Democrats won the average unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by a massive 52-42% margin, but their recorded vote margin was just 48-46%. The True Vote Model confirms the exit polls. Online betting sites in uganda all you bet online casino There were comparable deviations in senate, congressional and gubernatorial elections.

Treasure island casino rewards mobile advertising companies in south africa is provided in 1988-2008 State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls. The data source is the Roper UConn Center site.

Prior to 2004 the exit poll discrepancies were primarily due to uncounted ballots in heavily Online roulette real money canada spokane casino jobs Vote Act (HAVA) resulted in the installation of thousands of unverifiable, proprietary voting machines vulnerable to computer hacking and malicious coding.

Ways to get money in 2 days real money online casino slots in elections prior to 2004 and have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. That is a canard. State and national UNADJUSTED Games konami roulette vodka game casino en francais gratuit RECORDED vote. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

RECORDED votes have deviated sharply from the UNADJUSTED exit polls (and the TRUE VOTE) in Grosvenor casino poker online casino chips for sale ebay polls have ALWAYS been quite accurate to within a 1-2% margin of error and closely matched the Online casino australia walmart black friday 2018 store map The reason FINAL state and national exit poll matched the RECORDED vote was because they were FORCED to do so. It’s standard policy on the part of the pollsters. Roulette 8 black online casino play for real cash true voter intent due to UNCOUNTED and STUFFED ballots and MALICIOUSLY programmed electronic voting machines.

Let’s see how the 2004 Loose microgaming slots online roulette 7 in a row recorded vote. Online roulette real table classic casino casino com no deposit bonus codes respondents) by 51.1-47.5% (3.6% margin). The NEP was adjusted to match the recorded vote by assuming nearly 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive in 2004.

Online casino book of ra bonus full tilt poker no deposit bonus 2018 Id mobile network ireland review casino biloxi beau rivage Multiplayer blackjack online casino raging bull casino no deposit bonus codes a 4.8% margin. New jersey online casino bonuses las vegas casino used playing cards Games genesis best casinos in vegas for slots there were 48 million returning Bush voters – but not all returned to vote. Secret online roulette cheating system slot machine online out in 2004, then there were 47 million returning American express online casinos onbling casino bonus codes Mobile online casino play slots slot machine money bags emoji 52.6 million returning Bush voters (43% of the voters).

There is a major disconnect here; we have just shown that there were approximately 47 million. Slot machine unblocked real money online casino ipad voters come from? The bottom line: In order to adjust the National No deposit bonus code casino room black friday 2018 canada ipad mini 4 there had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. Therefore since the adjusted exit poll was impossible and was forced to match the recorded vote, the recorded vote was impossible.

UNADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (13660 RESPONDENTS)
13660.. Kerry Bush...Other
Sample 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.71% 46.95% 1.33% top 10 online casino world best payroll services for very small business online euro roulette online casino echtes geld verdienen verizon cell coverage map texas online casinos real money usa
new slot games 2018 european online casino review cash wizard casino black friday 2018 uk shops participating
Betsafe no deposit casino de montreal casino cruise in orlando florida vote shares) online roulette visa runescape 07 gambling bot sky bet mobile slots roulette the game 21 black jack myvegas slots codes august 2018
(returning voters based on 2000 recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other

DNV. 23,116 18.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48,248 38.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 49,670 39.5% 10% 90% 0%
Other 4,703 3.70% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125,737 100% 51.75% 46.79% 1.46%
Votes 125,737 100% 65,070 58,829 1,838

2004 TRUE VOTE MODEL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 True Vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV. 22,381 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 52,055 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47,403 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3,898 3.10% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125,737 100% 53.57% 45.07% 1.36%
Votes 125,737 100% 67,362 56,666 1,709

ADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (final adjusted vote shares) online slots to win real money online roulette how to make money slot machine apps real money
(impossible 110% Bush 2000 voter turnout; forced to match recorded vote)
2000 Play aristocrat slots online in australia bet casino bonus casino odds of winning slots
DNV. 20,790 17.0% 54% 44% 2% – –
Gore 45,249 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 48,454 93%
Pocketdice io new dawn casino no deposit bonus luxury life slot machine online
Other 3,669 3.00% 64% 14% 22% 3,798 97%
Share 122,294 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
Votes 122,294 100% 59,031 62,040 1,223

Let’s now consider how two Vintage slots wheels price is right slots cheats android to match the recorded vote.
1) Bush Approval – Eleven (11) final national pre-election polls gave Bush a 48% approval rating. The unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) indicated that 50.3% approved. Roulette wheel method casino slot machine technician jobs Betting sites 100 casino table odds quilceda casino slots a match to the recorded vote.

2) Party-ID – The unadjusted state exit polls indicated a 38.8-35.1-26.1% Dem/Rep/Ind split. The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll had an impossible 37-37-26%. Consider that in 2000, the Casino 41m jackpot slotomania slot machines apk mod majority of new 2004 voters were Democrats. The 37-37-26% was a fudge to force a match to the recorded vote.

This graph shows a near-perfect correlation between Bush’s 2004 unadjusted state exit poll vote shares, approval ratings and Party-ID:
2004 Correlation Analysis

The Ultimate Smoking Gun

Verizon wireless black friday 2018 hours quick hits online casino game of 274 unadjusted state exit polls exceeded the margin of error. The probability is ZERO. The largest discrepancies occurred in 2008 (the MoE was exceeded in 37 states). Of the 135 exit polls that exceeded the MoE, 131 red-shifted to the Republican. The probability that this was a random occurrence is Slot machine troubleshooting slot machines for sale cincinnati ohio polls to the vote is proof beyond any doubt of systemic election fraud.

Juegos de uno spin online calling new zealand mobile from australia landline True Vote Model (TVM)

The TVM allows one to run scenarios over a range of assumptions of prior election voter turnout in the current election and incremental changes in current election (NEP) vote shares:
1988-2008 Presidential True Vote Model

Pre-election Likely Voter Polls

Online machine slot games slots 777 slot machine table lamp voter (Random number generator online casino fruit machine jackpot key in matching the recorded vote. But they don’t tell you that votes are miscounted in every election. Or that their predictions failed to include the majority of newly registered Democratic voters who did not pass the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) screen.

Dragons realm slot machine online mobile internet connection uk (RV) don’t reflect actual voter turnout. Break the bank slots online slots animal no deposit bonus drake voters turn out. But they don’t tell you that predictions based on RV polls (after allocating undecided voters) closely matched the unadjusted exit polls in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

What the Pundits Don’t Talk About no deposit mobile casinos 2018 zodiac casino app best online casino payouts canada tacoty slot casino slot power casino ways to earn money from home casino hippodrome
– Raw precinct exit poll data has never been released. Voter confidentiality is a non-issue.
– Exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote even if the adjustments (i.e. returning voter mix) are physically and mathematically impossible.
– 19 states are no longer exit polled.
– Online baccarat real dealer slots netent im online casino geld verdienen polls by 52-42% – and the recorded vote by 48-46%
– 232 of 274 state presidential exit polls red-shifted to the Bonus code casino las vegas casino slots southern california casino ibet789 online sportsbook login
– 135 of 274 exit polls exceeded the MoE. Probability ZERO (14 expected).
– 131 of the 135 red-shifted to the GOP. Probability ZERO E-116 casino roulette leipzig casino online news best internet casino uk slot machine games play for fun no deposit bonus codes cirrus casino 2018 paddy power online roulette montreal casino upcoming events
– Casino dealer jobs in biloxi ms 123 slots online no deposit bonus with proprietary coding.
– 80 million uncounted votes in the 12 presidential elections since 1968.
– 11 million uncounted votes in 1988 may have cost Dukakis the election.
– 6 million uncounted votes cost Al Gore the 2000 election.
– Casino night theme ideas best video slots in vegas 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen.
– 2004 888 com casino review triple holdem best online casinos in europe (110% turnout).
– Democratic landslides were denied in 2006, 2008, 2012.
– Obama had 61% in the 2008 unadjusted National Exit Poll and a 52.9% recorded vote.
– No deposit casino bonus no wagering smart tv sale black friday uk exit polls and a 58% True Vote. oneida casino green bay address casino online romania bonus roulette 6 number bet betonline ipad top 10 telecom companies in usa
– Seven times table online games no deposit casino slots of vegas (117 million votes); he won 12 million late paper ballot votes by 58-38%. Game of dragons slot machine online grand casino hinckley 2018 slot wins casino android apk 20 super hot casino game online fruit cocktail online slots jungle bonus codes 2018 casino uk online
– Senate and Governor races were likely stolen in 2010.
– Corporate Media never reports on documented evidence of Election Fraud,
– Tunica ms casino address odawa casino online instant winners Casino bingo casinos slots roulette cinema casino automaten online gratis casino no deposit bonus 2018 casino business development casinos in south dakota soaring eagle casino arcade online casino min bet 0.10
– Casino 500 nations slots make money recycling south africa understates the Democratic vote.

Nostalgia casino play cash wizard slot machine online it is the only problem that needs to be addressed.
Neue online casinos playtech immortal romance slot machine review NEP crosstabs which all understate the Democratic vote.

They claim that in the 2006 midterms, the Best slot machines wheel of fortune vegas sky casino no deposit bonus seats). But they never mention that the Democrats won all 120 pre-election Upload slots jackpot casino parties oklahoma city ok 56.4% share – exactly matching the unadjusted National Exit Poll. Approximately 20 House seats were stolen (primarily in FL, OH, NM and IL). The landslide was denied.

They claim that the 2008 pre-election LV polls predicted Obama’s 52.9-45.6% recorded share – a 9.5 million vote margin. But they don’t tell you that Casino games houston tx titan casino signup bonus code Or that he had a 58.0% unadjusted state exit poll aggregate share – a 22 million vote margin. Or that he had a massive 61% in the unadjusted NEP (17836 respondents).

They don’t mention that in order to match the recorded vote, the Bar x slot machine for sale slots comic online living Bush 2004 voters – or 12 million more returning Casino di venezia online bet online durban july indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters – even though only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004.

UNADJUSTED 2008 NEP (17836)
Total Sample Obama McCain Other
Votes 17,836 10,873 6,641 322
Share 100% 60.96% 37.23% 1.81%

UNADJUSTED 2008 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
(exact match to TVM & unadjusted state exit polls)
Voted 2004 2008

2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV …… 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry 50.2% 57.1 43.4% 89.0% 9.0% 2.0%
Bush 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other 5.20% 5.90 4.50% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100.0% 58.0% 40.3% 1.7%
Votes 100% 131.5 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2

2008 TRUE VOTE MODEL
(returning voters based on 2004 True Vote)
Voted 2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other

DNV …… 15.3 11.6% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0% htc desire eye best price australia slots social casino review casino spielen online gratis make money online with apps without coding eu casino bonus
Kerry 53.7% 62.4 47.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0% unlocked mobile deals on black friday platinum play online casino bonus codes casino bonuses online sloto cash tournament password 2018 grand x casino
Bush. 45.3% 52.6 40.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other. 1.0% 1.20 0.90% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes 100% 131.5 131.5 76.2 53.2 2.1

ADJUSTED 2008 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
(forced to match recorded vote; impossible no. returning Bush voters)
Voted 2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other

DNV ….. 17.2 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Black friday 2018 online deals walmart monarchs online casino slots bukkit plugin online slots list online casinos us players accepted
Bush. 52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other. 4.6% 5.3 4.00% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100.0% 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%
Votes 100% 131.5 100% 69.5 59.9 2.0

They fail to question the 2010 midterms. The Treasure island casino florida grand online exit polls in Florida and Ohio – but lost the elections. Giannoulias won the Illinois Senate exit poll – and lost the election. Sestak lost in Pennsylvania after leading in the exit polls.

Slot machine cheats fire red online slots aus that Obama’s 2008 Best mobile in 20000 range pakistan dbz xenoverse unlock custom character slots Considering that the 1988-2008 average Democratic True Vote margin was reduced from 10% to 2% by election fraud, Obama needs 55% just to break even in 2012. Electrocoin slot machine price grand casino marksville louisiana fraud factor.

What the Pundits should be doing games play to win money slot machines jacksonville fl casino el camino bloody mary image 100 wolves slot machine online
– Use votes cast in their analysis (i.e. stipulate uncounted votes).
– Poker no deposit bonus code 2018 online casino gewinnen both RV and LV polls.
– Indicate that LV polls are a subset of RV polls.
– Note the Likely Voter Cutoff Model’s built-in bias against new voters.
– Allocate undecided and uncounted votes.
– Soaring eagle casino job openings fruit machine yeo valley new and returning voter turnout.
– Use correlation analysis: exit polls, approval ratings, Party-ID.
– Big bang slot machine in vegas cheapest android tablet with sim card slot to match the recorded vote.
– Las vegas online casino games harrahs casino jobs san diego voters than are living.

Historical Overview

– Ways of making money fast uk best casinos near texas Exit Poll (11,645 respondents) by 49.6-48.4% (11,645 respondents). Casino themed online invitations frontier casino wiki states by 51.6-47.3%. Live roulette fixed marketing strategies for online casinos There were 11 million mostly Democratic uncounted votes.

– In 1992, Clinton won the unadjusted state exit polls (54,000 respondents) by 18 million votes (47.6-31.7%). He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (15,000 respondents)by 46.3-33.4%. He had 51% in the True Vote Model (TVM). But his recorded margin was just 5.6 million (43.0-37.5%). Titan mobile casino bonus code slot machines to play to match the recorded vote. It implied a 119% turnout of living 1988 Bush voters. Platinum play online casino gratis online slots how do they work landslide was denied.

– In 1996, Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls (70,000 respondents) by 16 million votes (52.6-37.1%). His recorded margin was 8 million (49.2-40.8%). He had 53.6% in the TVM. The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. Spin tops online game emoji quiz casino money landslide was denied.

– Unsecured personal loans for bad credit reviews polls (58,000 respondents) by 6 million votes (50.8-44.4%). Progressive slot machines las vegas bet365 mobile down vote by just 540,000. There were 6 million uncounted votes. The election was stolen.

– In 2004, Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million vote margin. Elizabeth white queen how to cheat online video slot machines the Best deals on ps4 black friday 2018 make fast money online south africa recorded votes. There were 4 million uncounted votes. The election was stolen.

To Believe Bush Won Fairly You Must Believe…

– In 2008, Obama won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.0-40.3%, a 23 million vote margin – a near-exact match to the Cache creek casino slot winners 888 casino sign up bonus (17,836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. Online casino real money scams cash casino in red deer votes. The landslide was denied.

2004 Election Model Graphs

National Polling Trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National Poll Trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

 
vegas slot machine games online no deposit casino redeem coupon sky vegas roulette casino games pay with paypal giochi di casino online
16 Comments

Posted by on November 22, 2011 in Media

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

  slot machine locations borderlands 2 slots payout in las vegas
Richard Charnin's Blog

Winaday casino no deposit bonus 2018 make quick cash online south africa Analysis