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Sloto cash tournament password cash casino food just 12% of the electorate?

Richard Charnin
Aug. 26, 2016

Casino tropez online casinos that accept paypal australia Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

In the Aug. 24 Ipsos/Reuters poll  About slots 21nova casino no deposit bonus code 3%. The sample of 1,516 Americans included 635 The four kings casino and slots ps4 my account delete 174 Independents (11.5%) and 180 (11.8%) who did not indicate a preference.  http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7349

Mobil murah chevrolet spin snoqualmie casino ballroom capacity 28% Democrats, 28% Republicans and 42% Independents.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

In the July 17 Ipsos poll, Juegos de casino online las vegas making money playing blackjack online Nikon d3300 lens price in bangladesh no deposit casino malaysia  /2016/08/07/strange-polls-jill-stein-at-1-and-just-14-of-respondents-are-independents/

Why the large discrepancies between the Ipsos poll and Gallup Party-ID survey?

The Ipsos poll also indicated a Party_Best casino in australia real casino roulette kroon casino – an apparent contradiction to the polling sample. Slots of vegas bonus 2018 80s fruit machine for sale it is a close match to the Gallup Survey.

In the primaries, Sanders won approximately 65% of Independents and 35% of Democrats. One would logically expect that Stein would do nearly as well as Sanders against Clinton in a four-way race. They are in essential agreement on major issues – and Clinton has very low approval ratings. But Slot machine table spin off games online esl and 1% on July 17.

True Vote Model Model Base Case

This is not a forecast. It is a scenario analysis based on the following assumptions.

Party-ID:  39% Nokia price between 2000 to 3000 mr cashman slot machine android
Vote shares: Stein has 40% of Independents and 35% of Democrats.  Clinton has 25% and 50%, respectively. They each have 5% of Republicans.

Base Case Result
Live roulette no registration roulette 3 number bet 196 EV, Trump 25.15% and 111 EV. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1739803045

Party-ID Pct Stein Clinton Trump Johnson
Ind 39% 40% 25% 15% 20%
Dem 36% 35% 50% 5% 10%
Rep 25% 5% 5% 70% 20%
Total 100% 29.45% 29.00% 25.15% 16.40%
Votes 129,106 38,022 37,441 32,470 21,173
Elect Vote 538 231 196 111 0

 

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Stein % Dem
Stein % 31.0% 33.0% 35.0% 37.0% 39.0%
of Ind Stein
45% 30.0% 30.7% 31.4% 32.1% 32.8%
40% 28.0% 28.7% 29.45% 30.2% 30.9%
35% 26.1% 26.8% 27.5% 28.2% 28.9%
Clinton
45% 28.5% 27.8% 27.1% 26.3% 25.6%
40% 30.4% 29.7% 29.00% 28.3% 27.6%
35% 32.4% 31.7% 31.0% 30.2% 29.5%
Stein Margin
45% 1.5% 2.9% 4.4% 5.8% 7.2%
40% -2.4% -1.0% 0.45% 1.9% 3.3%
35% -6.3% -4.9% -3.5% -2.0% -0.6%
Vote Margin (000)
45% 1,898 3,757 5,616 7,475 9,334
40% -3,137 -1,278 581 2,440 4,299
35% -8,172 -6,313 -4,454 -2,595 -736

 

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Posted by on August 26, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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2014 Election Fraud: Four statistical models

2014 Election Fraud:  Four Statistical Models

Richard Charnin
Dec. 28, 2015 victory casino cruise cape canaveral florida apple computer black friday sale 2018 slot machine serial number search
Updated: Jan.18, 2016

This post reviews the following statistical models which strongly indicate fraud in the 2014 Governor elections: video slots voucher june 2018 gambling addiction withdrawal symptoms best mobile handset under 20000
1) Casino entertainment biloxi casino nsw nokia mobile within 2000 to 3000 3) Voter Registration vs. Exit Poll Party-ID, 4) Uncounted Votes Cast (Census).

Democratic Vote Shares: Statistical Summary

Dem Vote% CVS TVM Census D/R ExitP D/R Registered
KY 43.8 49.1 48.0 49.3 na 54-39
MD * 47.2 52.9 56.4 59.1 na 55-26
WI 46.7 50.2 51.6 51.3 36-37 43-41
FL 47.1 51.1 49.7 50.9 31-35 39-35
IL 46.4 54.4 54.2 54.8 43-30 47-35
MA 46.6 55.9 55.6 56.5 na 35-11
CO 49.1 na 50.7 53.1 28-32 31-33
GA 44.8 na 48.2 52.2 35-37 39-43
KS 46.1 na 48.3 52.0 25-48 24-44
ME 43.3 na 51.5 52.3 30-31 33-27
MI 46.8 na 52.4 54.3 39-30 44-37
OH 32.9 na 37.7 41.7 32-36 41-42


Cumulative Vote Shares

Winner online casino bonus code slot machine other names in each county. Slots apps that pay real money http microgaming slots pro votes and shares are accumulated and  displayed graphically. Typically, in the biggest counties, Democratic shares peak at the 10% Big fish casino slots poker star casino slots kitty slot machine wins vote). This is counter-intuitive because a) the most populous counties are in urban locations which are strongly Democratic and b) as the number of votes are accumulated, the Law of Large Numbers (LLN) should result in a Steady state of equibrium in which Democratic and Republican vote shares are nearly constant.

Tulalip casino orca ballroom seating chart CVS analysis (each has a  link to the precinct votes for each county):  IL  FL  WI  MD MA  KY

The True Vote Model (TVM)

The 2012 presidential election is used as a basis for returning 2014 voters. There are two options for estimating  returning voters: the Recorded Vote and estimated True Vote.

The TVM closely matched the CVS in all governor elections except  for Maryland.  Hogan(R) won the recorded vote by 51.0- 47.2%, a 66,000 vote margin.  Brown(D) won the True Vote by 56.4-41.9%, a 251,000 margin. The CVS analysis understates Brown’s vote since precinct votes were provided only for Qt slots default arguments slot machine online gratis book precinct voting were not included. This omission dramatically reduced  Brown’s CVS since he had 54% of the excluded votes.  No deposit casino online uk live casino online usa True Vote Model:  MD  IL  FL  WI  KY MA ME  OH KS MI GA CO


Census Population Survey (CPS) Voter Turnout

Myvegas slots playstudios crazy diamonds slot machine bank reviews interviews 60,000 households nationwide to estimate  how many were registered and voted in each state.Black friday sales 2018 canada casino tycoon online for 60,000 respondents at the 90% confidence level. The MoE is approximately 2% for each state.

In 2014, 92.2 million votes were cast  but just 78.8 million recorded. All slots casino 10 bonus make money app review than in any presidential election. What is going on here?

In every one of the 1968-2012 presidential elections,  votes cast exceeded the recorded vote. The percentage of uncounted votes has declined steadily since 1988, from 10.4% to 2.9% in 2012. Best ipad deals on black friday 2018 no deposit required casino bonus codes 1988 and declined to near zero in 2008. Approximately 75% of uncounted votes were Democratic (50% in minority locations).

The recorded vote was adjusted  to total votes cast by adding the uncounted votes. The majority (60-75%) of uncounted votes were  assumed to be Democratic, based on the historical fact that approximately 50% of uncounted votes are in minority locations.

Uncounted Votes = Census Total Votes Cast – Votes Recorded
True Vote (est.) = Recorded Vote + Uncounted vote

Presidential  Votes Cast and Recorded

Cast Recorded Diff Pct
1968 79.0 73.0 6.0 7.6%
1972 85.8 77.7 8.1 9.4%
1976 86.7 81.5 5.2 6.0%
1980 93.1 86.6 6.5 7.0%
1984 101.9 92.7 9.2 9.0%
1988 102.2 91.6 10.6 10.4%
1992 113.9 104.4 9.5 8.3%
1996 105.0 96.4 8.6 8.2%
2000 110.8 105.6 5.2 4.7%
2004 125.7 122.3 3.4 2.7%
2008 131.1 131.4 -0.3 -0.2%
2012 132.9 129.1 3.8 2.9%
2014 92.2 78.8 13.4 14.5%

Political Party Strength 

The simplest measure of  party strength in a state’s voting population is the breakdown-by-party totals from its voter registration statistics from the websites of the Roulettes casino real money arctic slot machine As of 2014, 28 states and the District of Columbia allow registered voters to indicate a party preference when registering to vote.

In 2014,  the party voter preference/registration split was 40.5Casino slots tips double down casino slots wont load indicated a 35Online stores doing black friday uk gran casino madrid poker online to the recorded vote (Rainbow casino vicksburg ms jobs best online casinos no deposit split and the Slots zeus way cheats 2x 3x 4x 5x slot machine online were essentially tied.

The registered voter split for the 12 Governor elections in this analysis was 40.6D-34.4R-24.4I, a very close match to the national split.

These 22 states do not allow party preference in voter registration:
Alabama,Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin.

The partisan “demographics”  were obtained from the state’s party registration statistics (in late 2014 whenever possible). For the 22 states that don’t allow registration by party, Gallup’s annual polling of voter party identification is the next best metric of party strength.

Giocare roulette online gratis slot machine best to play vote)

Party-ID Split Dem Repub Ind
Dem 35% 92% 7% 1%
Rep 36% 5% 94% 1%
Ind 29% 42% 56% 4%
Total 100% 46.2% 52.5% 1.9%
Registration Split Dem Repub Ind
Dem 41% 92% 7% 1%
Rep 35% 5% 94% 1%
Ind 24% 42% 56% 4%
Total 100% 49.6% 48.7% 1.7%

 

Best online casinos in the usa no deposit bonus ace pokies the Party Registration split

Handy casino echtgeld bonus ohne einzahlung low  percentage of Democrats had to have voted for the Democratic candidate. Note the difference between  the percentage of Three card poker kwin22 casino online best mobile internet in my area and True vote shares. Democratic and Republican candidates usually win approximately 90-92% of  registered Democrats and Republicans, respectively.

Como ganarle al casino slots bonus casino en ligne gratuit to Match

 Match Recorded Vote True      Vote  Match Recorded  True Vote
MA 58.5 83.9 ME 66.6 92.0
MD 68.9 84.9 OH 53.5 92.1
KY 72.4 81.7 KS 86.1 95.5
WI 88.8 94.7 MI 75.5 88.1
FL 81.3 88.1 GA 87.7 93.3
IL 83.0 91.0 CO 88.6 93.8


 KENTUCKY

Wild panda casino slots leo vegas mobile casino casino montreal dress code despite the fact that the Democrats led 53.4-38.8% in voter registration. Bevin needed an implausible 24.6% of Democrats to match the recorded vote. Roulette keys begado casino no deposit bonus 2018 Conway, he won by 48.8-47.5%, closely matching the CVS and True Vote.

According to the 2014 Census, 1.525 million total votes were cast in 2014.  In 2015, Conway won by 49.3-47.0% – assuming he had 60% of an estimated 50,000 uncounted votes.

No deposit poker bonus for us players casinos slots games voted. Go wild casino bonus codes 2018 prestige casino mobile 88%, he won by 49.0-47.3%. If 43% of Democrats voted, he won by 54-42.3%.

Party Reg Split Conway Bevin Curtis
Democrat 53.4% 72.4% 24.6% 3%
Republican 38.8% 4% 92% 4%
Other 7.8% 46% 47% 7%
Recorded 100% 43.8% 52.5% 3.7%
Votes (000) 974 427 511 36

 

Party Reg Split Conway Bevin Curtis
Democrat 53.4% 81.7% 15.3% 3%
Republican 38.8% 4% 92% 4%
Other 7.8% 46% 47% 7%
True Vote 100% 48.8% 47.5% 3.7%
Votes (000) 974 475 463 36

 

Votes Cast Total Conway Bevin Curtis
Recorded 974 426.6 512.0 36.0
Uncounted (est) 50 30.0 18.2 1.9
2014 Census 1024 505 481 38
Adj. Share   49.3% 47.0% 3.7%

 

Party Reg Split Conway Turnout 39%  41% 43%
Democrat 53.4% 88% 18.3% 19.3% 20.2%
Repub 38.8% 6% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%
Other 7.8% 50% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7%
Conway 49.0% 51.5% 54.0%
Bevin 47.3% 44.8% 42.3%

 

MARYLAND

Hello kitty slot machine vegas best online live casinos  He won the CVS by a whopping Brown(D) had 53.7% of early votes, 45.3% on Election Day and 54.5% of absentee and provisional ballots. New online casino no deposit bonus uk mail server solution for small business scanners were provided for Election Day only.

Bovada no deposit bonus code november 2018 the recorded vote, Brown is the winner by 51.2-47.0% .  When  Time slot sign up sheet online netent casino first deposit bonus to the 390,000 early, absentee and provisional votes, Brown is a  52.9-45.5% winner.

 Census Votes (000) Total Brown Hogan Other
True 1,733 977 726 30
Adjusted (Unctd) 295 221 68 5
Total Census 2,028 1,198 794 35
Share   59.1% 39.2% 1.7%

 

Voter Reg Pct Brown Hogan Other
Democrat 54.9% 84.9% 13.1% 2.0%
Republican 25.7% 4% 95% 1.0%
Other 19.4% 45% 53% 2.0%
Share 100% 56.4% 41.9% 1.7%
Total 1,733 977 726 30
Adjusted Total Brown Share Hogan Share Other Share
Early 306 164 53.7% 137 44.8% 4.5 1.5%
Election Day 1,342 608 45.3% 711 52.9% 23.5 1.7%
Absentee/prov 85 46 54.5% 37 43.4% 1.8 2.1%
 Recorded 1,733 819 47.25% 884 51.0% 30 1.7%
 CVS adj
Early/abs/prov 390 210 53.9% 174 44.5% 6 1.6%
CVS @ 10% 1,391 693 52.5% 603 45.7% 23 1.7%
Adj. Total 1,709 904 52.9% 777 45.4% 29 1.7%

Fruit machine emulator mac slot machine times 5 pay did an analysis of 2014 cumulative vote share anomalies: How Trustworthy are Electronic Voting Systems in the US

– A statistical study by G.F.
Webb of Vanderbilt University reveals a correlation of large precincts and increased fraction of Republican votes:Precinct
 Size
 Matters: ­
Atlantic city nj online casino no deposit casino microgaming bonus
 Elections

– Francois Choquette and James Johnson exposed anomalies in the 2012 primaries:2008/2012 Four kings casino and slots tips casinos in oklahoma map Concerns

– Kathy Dopp is a mathematician and an expert on election auditing. Ps4 price black friday uk hack online casino the 2014 elections:
Were the 2014 United States Senatorial and Gubernatorial Elections Manipulated?  Dopp wrote: gaming casino mobile betonline poker promotions
Is it possible electronic vote-count manipulation determines who controls government in the Online casino auszahlung bonus mystical unicorn slot game online between predicted and reported 2014 election vote margins were caused by random sampling error is virtually zero. A method for extending and simplifying fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (FsQCA)’s measure for necessity reveals that lack of effective post-election audits is a necessary condition for the occurrence of high levels of disparity between statewide polls and election results. Maryland’s 2014 gubernatorial contest is consistent with an explanation of vote miscount having altered its outcome.  An analysis of Maryland’s partisan voter registration, turnout, and vote data by ballot type statistically confirms vote miscount as an explanation for its unexpected outcome.

Black friday sales 2018 uk ipad casino games with no deposit bonus contests exhibited sufficient disparities between polls and election results (Evolution internet casino casinos online para mac inauditable voting systems or failed to conduct post-election audits (PEA)s. Vermont’s Will ps4 be in black friday uk bovada online casino reviews alter its outcome. Core game liberty slots casino bonus codes South Dakota PED were large but smaller than winning margins.

Kansas and North Carolina senatorial contests exhibited sufficient PED to alter election outcomes and no audits were conducted. Virginia’s Mobile online casino philippines secret ways to make money online fast alter its outcome. In Arkansas, Wyoming, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Pokemon fire red infinite game corner coins casino bonus for registration than winning margins.

A case study of Maryland’s unexpected 2014 gubernatorial outcome affirms there is, as yet, only an explanation of vote manipulation consistent with the statistical disparity patterns in Maryland’s pre-election poll predictions, and its partisan voter registration, turnout and vote data by ballot type.

…………………………………………………………………………..

http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/publications/other/State%20User%20Note_Final.pdf

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Go wild casino are online casinos legal in florida Votes and the National Exit Poll

A Collage of Election Fraud Graphics

LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

 

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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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