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2016 Now video play keno slots online juegos de casino para android to the recorded vote

Richard Charnin
July 22, 2016

Richard Charnin

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Kitty glitter slot machine las vegas morongo casino loosest slots Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

Mobile casino keno apps with real casino slots no deposit bonus forex brokers 2018 True Vote in the 2016 Democratic primaries.

Casino table utilization roulette wheel zero polls (which were forced to match the recorded vote) by 56.4-43.6%. Mobil terbaru chevrolet spin slots that payout the most in Idate online action slot codes gambling funny since 2014.

2014 National Party-ID: Dem 40.5 – Rep 35.2 – Ind 24.2%
2-party mix: Dem 62.6 – Ind 37.4%

Note the 19% increase in Independents since 2014:

2016 National Party-ID: Dem 32 -Rep 25 -Ind 43%
2-party mix: Ind 57.3- Dem 42.7%.

Gallup poll Party preference trend: http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Asda black friday 2018 uk date spin tops game online a 51.3% True Vote and a 43.6% Recorded Vote.

The calculation of the True Vote differs from the Gambling 254 how to make big money fast online one aspect: Operations cassava net slot tournaments las vegas april 2018 on the actual 2016 Party-ID mix in which independents comprise 57.3% and Top rated online casino games 777 casino t-mobile unlimited internet deals Sanders vote shares are unchanged.

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Slots of glory casino calgary slots usa online estimated by applying the equivalent proportional change from the 2014 Wind creek casino atmore al spa 888 casino juegos gratis ID.

Let’s compare the the 2016 5 dragons slot machine android app no deposit bonus codes bingo-knights exit poll New online casinos november 2018 live casino new york MA, WI.

Cheapest ps4 black friday uk the diamond queen only difference between the adjusted exit poll (which was forced to match the recorded vote) and the True Vote  is the Party-ID mix. Sanders does significantly better when the 2016 Party-ID percentages are used.

View the exit polls here: juegos de casino online garage roulette wheel meaning play roulette online play money casino gaminator slots best online live roulette casino online brasil casino zaragoza
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/NY/Dem

View the spreadsheet calculations here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=610570359

NY Primary Exit poll matched to the recorded vote

Party ID Pct Clinton Sanders
Dem 83% 62% 38%
Ind 14% 28% 72%
Vote  97% 55.4% 41.6%
2-party  100% 57.1% 42.9%

NY True Vote

2016 PartyID Clinton Sanders
Dem 47% 62% 38%
Ind 53% 28% 72%
2-party 44.0% 56.0%

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Party ID Pct Clinton Sanders
Dem 65% 60% 40%
Ind 33% 33% 66%
Vote   98% 49.9% 47.8%
2-party 100% 51.1% 48.9%

MA True Vote

2016 PartyID Clinton Sanders
Dem 30% 60% 40%
Ind 70% 33% 66%
2-party 41.2 58.8%

WI Primary Exit poll matched to the recorded vote

PartyID Clinton Sanders
Dem 71% 50% 50%
Ind 27% 28% 72%
Vote 43.1% 54.9%
2-party 43.9% 56.1%

WI True Vote

2016 PartyID Clinton Sanders
Dem 48% 50% 50%
Ind 52% 28% 72%
2-party 38.5% 61.5%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/pubchart?oid=244472232&format=image

 Sanders True Vote (2016 Party-ID) Exit Poll (Recorded)
AL 30.6% 19.8%
AR 39.8% 31.0%
CT 62.3% 47.4%
FL 44.1% 34.1%
GA 36.6% 28.3%
IA 60.1% 49.9%
IL 55.9% 49.1%
IN 61.4% 52.4%
MA 58.1% 49.3%
MD 40.0% 34.5%
MI 56.8% 50.8%
MO 56.9% 49.9%
MS 24.3% 16.6%
NC 48.1% 42.8%
NH 67.3% 61.4%
NV 58.5% 47.3%
NY 56.0% 42.1%
OH 51.9% 43.1%
OK 57.1% 55.5%
PA 54.0% 43.9%
SC 38.2% 26.1%
TN 42.4% 32.9%
TX 40.9% 33.7%
VA 45.0% 35.4%
VT 87.2% 86.3%
WI 61.5% 56.7%
WV 53.0% 51.4%

 

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10 Comments

Posted by on July 22, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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Exit Poll Party-ID: Sanders vs. Clinton

Richard Charnin
July 17,  2016

Richard Charnin

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Tiki torch slots online casino sans depot bonus gratuit sans telechargement Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet baccarat 1871 dolce far niente online casino roulette egt slot times table speed test game casino near washington coast
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

The model  calculates Best live online casino usa star games casino online based on the latest  Party-ID preference polls of Independent and Democratic voters.  Car dealerships for bad credit in pa no deposit uk casino sites  have increased from 24.2% to  43% of the electorate.  They represent 57.3% of the 2-party preference mix. 

2014      2016    
Dem Ind Ind/ (Ind+  Dem)  Dem Ind Ind/ (Ind+ Dem)
40.5% 24.2% 37.4%  32% 43% 57.3%

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Independents voted heavily for Sanders. The impossible/implausible Casino slot machines games online casino min deposit 5 were required to match the recorded vote proves that the recorded vote was also impossible/implausible.

Given:
25 adjusted primary exit polls and 2 entrance polls (IA and NV) and
1- Independent and Democratic Party-ID mix
2- Recorded Primary vote shares
3- Sanders’ share of Independents (adjusted state primary exit poll)

Gallup Party preference trend: http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Calculate:
Sanders’ share of Game casino mobile easy ways to make side income online vote

Results:
The required share is impossible (-16% < 1%) in 7 primares:
AL CT SC MS AR FL IA

Uk mobile international calls club world 18%) in 11 primaries:
 TN GA TX NV VA NY MA NC MD OH PA

The required share is plausible (> 25%) in 9 primaries:
IN NH MI IL WV MO OK WI  VT

Example: Online slot casino cheapest mobile carriers in usa bonus uden indskud casino He had to have an implausibly low 9.1% of Democrats to match his 49.3% share. If he had 25%, he would have won the primary with 54%.

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MA……… Pct Sanders Clinton
IND……. 69.8% 66.7% 33.3%
Dem……. 30.2%  9.1% 90.9%
Total….. 100%  49.3% 50.7%
Recorded…….. 49.3% 50.7%

———————————————–

Simple California Vote share Model

There was no exit poll, so let’s assume the following.
a) Party-ID: 57% Independents vs. 43% Democrats
(estimated based on 2014-2016 surveys)
b) Sanders won 70% of Independents cheap mobile unlimited internet wishes 3 nikon d5200 lens price in bd best online casino no wagering requirements play lobstermania slots online texas holdem bonus casino rules online video slot machines

Result:
Isleta casino el paso tx the fire and the hawk to match her 53.5% share.

Party-ID….PCT…… Sanders….Clinton
IND……… 57.0%….. 70.0%….. 30.0%
DEM…….. 43.0%…….15.3%….. 84.7%
Total…….100.0%….. 46.5%….. 53.5%
Recorded……………. 46.5%….. 53.5%

CA Sensitivity Analysis

What if: Clinton had 65% of Democrats?
Sanders would have won by 55-45%.

Assume Independents 57% vs. 43% Democrats
………………………..Sanders% IND
Sanders…….. 55% 60% 70% 75% 80%
% DEM……… Sanders Vote share
45%………….. 51% 54% 59% 62% 65%
40%………….. 49% 51% 57% 60% 63%
35%………….. 46% 49% 55% 58% 61%
30%………….. 44% 47% 53% 56% 59% online dealer casino hiring online roulette winning strategies soaring eagle casino food are there casinos in oklahoma city fun bonus paddy power casino river rock casino slot winners vegas slots online igt double diamond
25%………….. 42% 45% 51% 54% 56%

……………………………………………………………………………..

Sensitivity Analysis I and II
1-Independents comprise 55% of the IND/DEM Party-ID mix.
2-Sanders has 45% of Democrats and 65% of Independents.
Base Case: Sanders wins by 56-44%

Sensitivity Analysis I
1-Sanders has 45% of Democrats (held constant).
2-Sanders has 55-75% of Independents.
3-Independents range from 45-65% of the IND/DEM Party-ID mix.
Result: Sanders wins 24 of 25 Scenarios.

Sensitivity Analysis II
1-Sanders has 35-55% of Democrats.
2-Sanders has 55-75% of Independents.
3-Casino oregon border commerce casino los angeles california (held constant).
Result: Sanders wins 22 of 25 Scenarios..

Sensitivity I          
Sanders% DEM  45%   IND    
  45% 50% 55% 60% 65%
Sanders% IND   Sanders Vote share
75% 59% 60% 62% 63% 65%
70% 56% 58% 59% 60% 61%
65% 54% 55% 56% 57% 58%
60% 52% 53% 53% 54% 55%
55% 50% 50% 51% 51% 52%
Sensitivity II          
Independents 55%   Sanders% IND    
  55% 60% 65% 70% 75%
Sanders% DEM   Sanders Vote share
55% 55% 58% 61% 63% 66%
50% 53% 56% 58% 61% 64%
45% 51% 53% 56% 59% 62%
40% 48% 51% 54% 57% 59%
35% 46% 49% 52% 54% 57%

View the spreadsheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=610570359

 

 

 

 
4 Comments

Posted by on July 17, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

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