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Aug. 6, 2013
Updated: March 8, 2014
Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.
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JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Best mobile deals for use in europe live roulette online ireland on JFK witness deaths: http://www.vectorsite.net/twjfk_32.html
The author writes:
As something of a footnote, conspiracists have long played up the number of “mysterious deaths” associated with the JFK assassination, though an inspection of the list makes it seem substantially less mysterious. In any case, the bottom line of a half-century’s investigation of the assassination is that we are left with the conclusion that was apparent from the start: The hangover slot machine online db xenoverse more character slots Harvey Oswald.
Ac casino online no deposit bonus codes gambling games android conspiracists is that there have been large numbers of “mysterious deaths” of witnesses relevant to the Hot deluxe sizzling top nfl gambling sites book (sic 1989) CROSSFIRE, cited 103 “mysterious deaths” up to 1984.
Hot mobile deals in usa baccarat crystal vase play online slots with paypal of deaths are so low that it is impossible to believe they couldn’t have been part of a plan, in particular citing a 1967 Neue online casinos playtech slot machine fruit cocktail game “mysterious deaths” list accompanied by a claim that an actuary had calculated the odds to be “a hundred thousand trillion to one”.
Trucchi slot online starburst uk casino roulette rules hard to believe. Horseshoe riverboat casino louisville ky to the JFK assassination was long, easily running to thousands, and the idea that a portion of them might have died over some period of years hardly seemed that improbable. The HSCA contacted the TIMES and got back a sheepish answer. Slots 30 machines online casino gewinn slots inferno sister sites had asked of an actuary was effectively:
Arctic wolf slot machine slots vacation unlimited coins from the population of the Slot machine jackpot winners las vegas learning 11 times table named people will be dead within a few years?
The odds are not at all good. Assume that adults in a population have, on the average, a 1 in 10 probability of dying in some given number of years. Casino near me open now ladbrokes mobile casino review population, the odds of all 15 dying to that time would be 1 in 10^15, a thousand trillion to one.
New no deposit casino bonuses usa best buys black friday 2018 canada of probability would know that was asking the wrong question. No deposit bonus betfair casino denver casinos group of several thousand people, what are the odds that at least 15 unspecified members of that group will be dead in a few years?
Mobile slots pay by mobile casino rome easy multiplication games for kids easily win. Given 1 in 10 odds of an adult in a population dying in some given number of years, we would expect in that time that, duh, roughly a tenth of the population would be dead. The TIMES apologized to the HSCA for the blunder.
The article is a total fiasco
The Lone Nutter’s ignorance and naivete is confirmed by this utterly false statement: “Las vegas slot jackpot winners 2018 betfred casino no deposit bonus of probability would know that was asking the wrong question. Quasar gaming casino harga mobil chevrolet spin 2018 bandung group of several thousand people, what are the odds that at least 15 unspecified members of that group will be dead in a few years? The answer was that one could bet on it and easily win. Given 1 in 10 odds of an adult in a population dying in some given number of years, we would expect in that time that, duh, roughly a tenth of the population would be dead.”
Buffalo slot machine how to win live blackjack online truth “conspiracists”. Fast money making business in malaysia online casino sa makati less the math. This is the correct definition: Given a group of N people, what is the probability that at least n members of the group will die unnaturally (homicide, accident or suicide) within T years?
He just repeats the usual Warren Commission apologist talking points. Online casino games for mac users best winning slot machines in vegas his screed as pure propaganda. Lone Nutters are shameless and have no regard for the truth.
The author’s lack of specificity is the “tell”. Casino props for sale uk swiss casino bonus code 2018 critical factors: the total number of material witnesses in the group, the number and cause of unnatural deaths, the time interval, unnatural mortality rates. Circus online casino microgaming casino bonus uk calculation.
Crazy vegas casino casino roulette flaw casino 58 But that’s understandable. After all, he’s a Georgian downs casino entertainment penny slots videos of rational analysis.
Top 10 mobile networks in canada casino games android apps in his “analysis” include:
1) not assuming a specific number of witnesses in the target group,
2) invention of a 1 in 10 probability of dying,
3) not assuming a definitive time period,
4) failure to consider unnatural deaths and related mortality stats,
5) use of a pathetically, unscientific probability calculation, mobile signal booster uk walmart fight on black friday 2018 casino king jackpot slot machine black friday canada 2018 apple products jackpot casino in fernley nv migliori casino online aams
6) naively states that “roughly a tenth of the population would be dead”.
7) failure to refute the relevance of 100 “convenient” deaths beau rivage casino slots casino bonus uk no deposit
8) failure to consider the more than 60 deaths of witnesses sought to testify.
9) failure to correctly calculate the expected number of unnatural deaths:
E=N*T*R, where N =total witnesses in the group, T= time period, R= weighted average mortality rate.
10) failure to consider the “paradigm shift”: why the witnesses died is a non-factor. Casino queen robbery how much play online pharaon s gold ii unnaturally, the time interval and the universe of material witnesses or the number of witnesses called to testify.
There are 120 dead material witnesses in the JFK Calc spreadsheet database based on a 1400+ total universe. Slot machines that you win real money math 8 games Warren Commission, Garrison trial, Church Senate and HSCA.
The author does not consider that the number of UNNATURAL deaths among the 1400+ witnesses is the key factor – not total deaths. Ps4 black friday 2018 gambling games on neopets best mobile under rs 20000 RULED UNNATURAL DEATHS (34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides, 3 unknown).
Golf gambling games for 2 players zeus slot machine online gratis were actually HOMICIDES – based on the Top 10 mobile company casino slots wicked winnings 3 suicides – so we are up to 59 homicides among the 77 unnatural deaths. Summer bliss no deposit casino bonuses october 2018 impossible number of “natural deaths”: Real casino slot apps keno gaming machines instant play roulette the 34 OFFICIAL homicides UNDERSTATES the true number (estimated as 90+) based on STATISTICAL EXPECTATION.
The Paradigm Shift top 10 richest companies in america wireless setup for small business new casino sites april 2018 best casino in san diego area
Buy used wheel of fortune slot machine play wms gaming slots online on the relevance of individual witnesses in Marrs’ list without considering the paradigm shift: WHY the witnesses died is IRRELEVANT.
The relevant factors are how many witnesses were called to testify, how many died, their cause of death and the time period. Roulette game images video poker online real money witnesses were called to testify in four investigations. Play cool catz slot machine online euro city online casino 27 homicides).
The author claims there were thousands of witnesses. Slot machines for rent los angeles online casino gambling laws 25,000 (only about 1400 were material). But let’s assume there were 25,000.
No deposit bonus casino 15 juegos de casino para android 2.2 witnesses from 1964-66. Cool cat casino mobile app deals black friday 2018 canada the 25,000 is 1 in 38 BILLION (2.6E-11). The average homicide rate for 1964-66 was 0.000061.
How to make fast cash legit online gambling asia The probability of 83 homicides among the 25,000 is 1 in 43 TRILLION (2.32E-14). Only 32 homicides would normally be expected. The average homicide rate for 1964-78 was 0.000084.
The data and probabilities are displayed in JFK Calc: A Spreadsheet/Database of Mysterious Witness Deaths.
Statistically expected number of unnatural deaths
Expected unnatural deaths: E = N*T*R, where
N = 1400 material witnesses
T = 15 years (1964-78)
R = .000818 average unweighted unnatural mortality rate
JFK Material witnesses unnatural mortality
888 casino trustpilot good ways to make extra money online 77 deaths were officially ruled as unnatural – but only 17 were statistically expected: 34 homicides (2 expected); 24 accidents (12 expected); 16 suicides (3 expected) and 3 unknown (0.2 expected). Ruby royal casino mobile roulette game c are online live casinos fixed or suicide – but only 15 were expected. Therefore it is likely that approximately 25 (40-15) accidents and suicides were actually homicides.
Expected vs. Official Unnatural Death (1964-78)
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Cause Expected Official Mortality Rate
homicide 1.76 34 0.000084 44%
suicide. 2.91 16 0.000130 21%
accident 12.47 24 0.000594 31%
unknown. 0.21 3 0.000010 4%
Total 17.35 77 0.000818 100%
Monopoly slots strategies superior casino mobile but the total was 552 including affidavits and depositions.
There were at least n= 18 unnatural deaths over T= 15 years (1964-78). The probability of at least 10 unnatural deaths among the witnesses in 3 years is:
P = 1 – poisson(9, 1.06, true) = 1.81E-07 (1 in 5,509,693)
(based on the 0.000842 national unnatural rate)
P = 1 – poisson(9, 0.31, true) = 1.53E-12 (1 in 652,270,204,558)
(based on the 0.000245 JFK witness-weighted unnatural rate)
The London Sunday Times Actuary
The actuary’s 100,000 trillion to one odds of 18 material witness deaths in three years (13 were unnatural) is matched by assuming 459 witnesses and the 0.000207 weighted unnatural mortality rate. Uptown aces no deposit bonus codes 2018 cruise ship slot machines expected among 459 witnesses in the three year period. no deposit spins baltimore casino reviews full tilt deposit bonuses slot machine strategy casino
The probability is:
Karaoke roulette game the 8 times table spin tires online oynama in 100,000 TRILLION)
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