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Implausible: the PA Unadjusted Exit Poll

Richard Charnin
Nov. 18, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud gala casino bonus code 2018 mobile network coverage australia comparison creative ways to make money online safe online casino games
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
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Netbet casino no deposit bonus legal online betting sites by 48.8-47.7%.
Casino epoca bonus codes 2018 ograblenie casino smotret online  49.1-48.0% (2:56 pm Nov.15).
Clinton won the PA exit poll  by 50.5-46.1%

PA Recorded Vote
Trump wins: 48.8-47.7% (68,000 vote margin)
Trump won Independents: 56.6-33.5%
Party ID: 41.5D- 38.5 R- 20I

PA Unadjusted exit poll how to win online slots uk slot games book ra play online magnum slot machine 01sc084 dragon era slots adventure hack pci bus slots definition
Clinton wins: 50.5-46.1% (262,000 vote margin)
Clinton won Independents: 50-43%  (implausible)
Party ID: 41.5D- 38.5R- 20I

PA True Vote Model
Trump wins 48.6-47.7% (54,000 vote margin)
Trump wins Independents: 62-32%
Party ID: 39.1D -29.2R -31.7I

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Clinton wins 47.8-47.4%
Trump won Independents: 48-42%
National Party ID: 37D- 33R- 30I

National True Vote Model 
Gallup Party-ID:  32D- 28R- 40I (8% Party ID  advantage to Independents)

Before Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA)
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Trump wins the recorded Electoral vote: 306-232

True Vote: After Undecided Voter Allocation
Trump wins  48.5%-44.3% (5 million vote margin)
Trump wins the  Electoral Vote: 351-187

 

2016-presidential-election-table_nov-10-2016

Election Model: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1141167047

Gender Vote Clinton Trump
Avg 45.90% 49.65%
Diff   3.75%
OH 42.89% 52.11%
NC * 46.64% 50.06%
NJ 54.64% 41.88%
PA * 47.95% 49.05%
MI 47.24% 47.28%
MO 37.83% 57.23%
IA 42.54% 51.99%
FL * 46.71% 48.82%
WI * 46.63% 48.39%

SUMMARY COMPARISON (based on Party-ID)

Unadj   Reported   True Vote  
Vote Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Avg 48.39% 45.80% 46.15% 49.65% 46.47% 49.65%
Diff   -2.59%   3.51%   3.18%
OH 47.0% 47.1% 43.5% 52.1% 43.9% 51.1%
NC * 48.6% 46.5% 46.7% 50.5% 46.6% 50.5%
NJ 59.8% 35.8% 55.0% 41.8% 50.7% 46.4%
PA * 50.5% 46.1% 47.7% 48.8% 47.7% 48.6%
MI 46.8% 46.8% 47.5% 47.8% 47.5% 47.8%
MO 42.8% 51.2% 38.0% 57.1% 47.2% 56.8%
IA 44.1% 48.0% 42.2% 51.8% 42.4% 50.2%
FL * 47.7% 46.4% 47.8% 49.1% 45.9% 47.7%
WI * 48.2% 44.3% 46.9% 47.9% 46.5% 48.0%
Unadj   Reported   True Vote  
%Ind Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Avg 47.33% 40.30% 38.61% 52.67% 35.00% 55.23%
Diff   -7.03%   15.06%   20.23%
OH 50.0% 34.0% 38.0% 52.0% 38.0% 51.0%
NC 44.0% 44.0% 38.5% 56.0% 36.5% 58.5%
NJ 67.0% 28.0% 51.0% 48.0% 46.0% 52.0%
PA 50.0% 43.0% 36.0% 56.0% 32.0% 62.0%
MI 32.0% 52.7% 35.0% 56.0% 33.5% 56.6%
MO 45.0% 40.0% 28.0% 62.0% 30.0% 60.0%
IA 42.0% 41.0% 35.0% 51.0% 35.0% 51.0%
FL 48.0% 43.0% 43.0% 47.0% 32.0% 53.0%
WI 48.0% 37.0% 40.0% 50.0% 32.0% 53.0%

Pennsylvania

 Unadj EP Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 41.5% 90% 6% 1% 3%
Rep 38.5% 8% 91% 1% 0%
Ind 20.0% 50% 43% 3% 3%
Calc 100% 50.4% 46.1% 1.4% 1.8%
Unadjusted 100% 50.5% 46.1% 1.8% 1.6%
Votes (000) 5,950 3,005 2,743 107 95
Margin -262
Margin -4.4%
Reported Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 41.5% 90% 6% 1% 3%
Rep 38.5% 8% 91% 1% 0%
Ind 20.0% 36% 56% 5% 3%
Calc 100.0% 47.63% 48.73% 1.80% 1.85%
Reported 100.0% 47.65% 48.79% 1.90% 1.66%
Votes (000) 5,950 2,835 2,903 113 99
Margin 68
Margin 1.1%
True Vote Model Adjusted Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 39.1% 90% 6% 1% 3%
Rep 29.2% 8% 91% 1% 0%
Ind 31.7% 32% 62% 4% 2%
True Vote 100.0% 47.7% 48.6% 2.0% 1.8%
Votes (000) 5,950 2,836 2,890 116 108
Margin 54
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Posted by on November 18, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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