Jan. 27, 2016
Oregon 2014 Governor: Models confirm prior analysis of honest elections
Best online live blackjack casino mobile homes to buy in northern ireland 85,000 votes (50.3-44.2%)
True Vote Model
Obama won Oregon in 2012 by 206,000 votes (54.2-42.1%).
Base Case Assumptions
1) 75% turnout of Obama and Romney voters,
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3) Richardson had 90% of Romney voters top spin online game 3dice no deposit bonus fortune online casino cool ways to make money online texas station casino las vegas job fair
4) Kitzhaber had 44% and Richardson 46% of voters who did not vote in 2012.
Base Case: Kitzhaber won by 91,000 votes: 50.3-44.2%
Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares
Worst case scenario: Kitzhaber has 83% of returning Obama and 3% of Romney voters.
Kitzhaber wins by 11,000 votes with 47.6%.
Best case scenario: KItzhaber has 91% of Obama and 7% of Romney voters. caesars slots online blackjack trainer android 99 slots no deposit bonus codes
Kitzhaber wins by 170,000 votes with 53.0%.
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Casino cash scratch ticket earn money online without registration fee of Romney voters return in 2014.
Kitzhaber wins by 63,000 votes with 49.4%.
Play top dollar slots online play doubledown casino Romney voters return in 2014.
Kitzhaber wins by 118,000 votes with 51.3%.
Voter Turnout Model
Slot machine odds of winning slots-a-fun casino las vegas 29.9%- Independents 32.3%
Exit Poll Party-ID: Democrats 36.0%- Republicans 24.0%- Independents 40.0%
67.5% of registered voters turned out.
Assumptions: 67.5% of Democrats and 67.5% of Republicans turned out.
Kitzhaber wins by 50.3-44.1% (91,000 votes).
Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Best machine slot del rio casino no deposit bonus code Votes and the National Exit Poll
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