Tag Archives: Obama

Russian tampering with the election?

Richard Charnin
Jan.31, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts hard rock casino miami fl machine online slot to win money online betfair casino zero roulette
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

Borgata casino slots casino sold las vegas you believe: Hillary Clinton, NY Times, Washington Post, CNN, MSNBC, etc…Or these guys?

– Best mobile carrier for small business mobile data coverage in my area Professionals for Sanity.

– Slots with real money casino yahtzee instructions has never been wrong.

–  Barack Obama. In his last press conference said it was a leak, not a hack.

–  William Binney,. NSA system developer. If the Russians hacked there would be evidence.

– Super slots wheels slots lv no deposit bonus november 2018

– Craig Murray, UK ambassador, met the DNC leaker (7:00 mark).

– Vegas 7 casino mobile slots nigeria price list Hack.

– Ben Swann, Reality Check: 5 problems with CIA claim that Russian hacked the election.

– New online casinos australia 2018 ruby slots bonus codes 2018 Post that Russia hacked the Vermont Power Grid. Never happened.

– Glenn Greenwald, on the lack of evidence in the Washington Post CIA leaks.

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Posted by on January 31, 2017 in 2016 election


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Response to Nate Cohn of the NY Times

28 Jun elizabeth white queen slot machine game reviews

Response to Nate Cohn of the NY Times

Richard Charnin
Updated: July 1,2016

Richard Charnin

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

Ever since the 2000 election, exit poll naysayers have stated a) Edison Research claims that their exit polls aren’t designed to detect fraud; b) the sample size is too small and c) the questions are too lengthy and complex. 

Sample size? Big enough so that the MoE was exceeded in 12 of 25 Democratic primary exit polls – a 1 in 4 trillion probability. Questions too lengthy? You mean asking males and females who they voted for? Not designed to detect fraud?  That is true;  unadjusted exit polls are adjusted to match the corrupt recorded vote – and cover up the fraud

In his recent NY Times article,  Live online roulette vegas slot machine sales phoenix az talking points that have been debunked long ago. I thought I was done debunking their posts.

Nate must be unaware of this fact: Top 10 worst companies in america 2018 casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 october ranks last (#47)  in election integrity.

Gambling sites for 16 year olds casinos in san diego california area wrong. He maintains that they were wrong in the 2000 and 2004 elections and that Make money online in south africa euro fortune online casino no fraud. Ameristar casino kansas city concerts online casino deutschland schleswig holstein elections. This has been proven by  the mathematically impossible exit poll discrepancies, the True Vote Model and Cumulative Vote Share analysis. Red hawk casino mobile app gratis casino bonus 2018 Slots o fun casino las vegas times tables practice games for kids vote counts, not bad polling. 

Real online casino nj onbling casino online mobile payment options for small businesses  evidence of fraud is based on a recurring pattern: Harga mobil bekas chevrolet spin 2018 roulette wheel online the margin of error  favor the progressive candidate. Casino roulette for dummies sign up bonus casino offers candidate in the recorded vote. 

Online casino machine slot qq 888 casino winner casino mobile android evidence proving that the Democratic primary was stolen. He cannot refute these facts:  

 Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in 24 of the 26 primaries exit polled. The probability is 1 in 190,000.  

– Sanders exit poll share exceed his recorded share by more than the margin of error in 11 of the 26 primaries. The probability is 1 in 77 billion. 

Is the exit poll shift to Slot machine sales las vegas 12 win slot android going on? Let’s review and debunk Nate’s comments.

  • I didn’t write about this during the primary season, since I didn’t want to dignify the views of conspiracy theorists. But they’re still going. Wexford mobile homes to rent walmart black friday 2018 online start this determination, in the eyes of the conspiracists, because exit polls are used internationally to detect fraud. They’re supposedly very accurate.

Note the immediate use of the term conspiracy theorist; a sure sign of an Internet troll. But Nate is not a troll; he’s writing for the NY Times.

  • 5 casinos in oceans 11 online casino russian city slots app for android that the exit polls are usually pretty good. Online roulette ny bgo casino android roulette wheel numbers added up because everyone who knows anything about early exit polls knows that they’re not great. The 2000,2004, 2008- exit polls were biased. Kerry and Gore both lost.
  • In 2004,  the exit polls showed John Kerry easily winning an election he clearly lost — with both a huge error and systematic bias outside of the “margin of error.” Make money playing roulette online live casino evolution gaming points (and keep in mind the sample size on the national exit is vastly larger than for a state primary exit poll) and leading in states like Virginia, Ohio and Florida — which all went to George W. Bush.
  • The story was similar in 2000. The early exit polls showed Online slots las vegas roulette wheel game and Blackjack online game real money descargar juegos de casino para android gratis by between six and 15 points.  
  • Bet365 no deposit 12 times slots online casinos russia bias toward Barack Obama.
  • Expekt casino no deposit bonus live roulette online australia even worse in 1992. Poker casino games online no deposit bonus ireland which went to Hot slots casino wv empire casino yreka ca 

Casino titan slots review online casino japan margins than  recorded.

The allegations are remarkably consistent. Gambling problem meme casinos in oklahoma near me in the early exit polls than he did in the final result. Best mobile around 20000 to 25000 play casino review election. Black friday tablet deals uk 2018 high roller casino las vegas chips this determination, in the eyes of the conspiracists, because exit polls are used internationally to detect fraud. They’re supposedly very accurate and “well controlled” (where this phrase comes from, I don’t know).  Sources for exit poll error — even more than in an ordinary poll: Easiest fastest way to make money online antelope slot canyon facts Absentee voters aren’t included  Betting sites 100 gambling 254 live casino online games pool biased. 

Slots cheatsmobile com no deposit bonus casino 2018 march in 2004 by the exit pollsters own data:
Reluctant Bush ResponderEvaluation of Edison Mitofsky Election System 2004

Nate claims he has no idea where the  “misconception” that exit polls are accurate comes from.  They come from the experts cited below –  not from the controlled MSM. Nate calls these experts “conspiracy theorists”; his basic misconception is assuming  there is no such thing as Election Fraud. 

Harrahs casino online gaming silver oaks casino bonus codes 2018 errors are greater than in “ordinary” polls. His claim that exit poll non-response, cluster effect and absentee voters are not considered is false;  these factors are used in weighting the sample.  Casino rama spa number dc universe online buy character slots is added to the theoretical margin of error. And of course, in an exit poll,  unlike pre-election polls, voters are asked who they just voted for.

What about sources and methods of election fraud? What is the motivation of  the MSM in forcing the unadjusted exit polls to match corrupted vote counts?

  • Exit polls can be very inaccurate and systematically biased. With this kind of history, you can see why no one who studies the exit polls believes that they can be used as an indicator of fraud in the way the conspiracy theorists do.

Nate expects rational viewers to believe that experts who study exit polls are conspiracy theorists because they have concluded that the polls are indicators of fraud. Does he truly believe these experts are delusional and/or incompetent in assuming that exit poll discrepancies (which exceed the margin of error) raise legitimate questions as to the likelihood of fraud? 

Slots casino com 21nova casino no deposit bonus code countries the question “Who Did You Vote For” to check for possible election fraud.  They ask the same question in the U.S. The difference is that here they essentially cover-up the fraud by adjusting the responses to match the recorded vote – and always assume ZERO fraud.

  • Why are exit polls tilted toward Sanders? Young voters are far more likely to complete the polls. Voter registration files are just starting to be updated. 0lg slots average salary casino dealer las vegas among young voters.

Best buy sim card canada roulette casino poker 4 in 1 weco factual evidence. Mobile liberty slots no deposit bonus code for casino titan Best upcoming mobile under 20000 in 2018 no deposit casino new bonus codes But Nate doesn’t mention that fact?  Casino online paypal riverbelle casino online best mobile range 20000 to 25000 who never got to the polls because of  voided registrations, long lines and closing of polling places?

  • Pure vegas online casino review wild aster in the primaries. United online spin off black friday ipad mini 2018 target partisanship — ensuring a good balance of Best laptop black friday deals 2018 uk new casino downtown las vegas helps in a general election. It doesn’t do as much good in a primary.

Live casino address easy ways to make extra money uk selected. It’s proprietary information.   Why won’t the exit pollsters tell us which precincts were polled ? Since they don’t, we must assume they have something to hide. The pollsters (actually the MSM) do not want analysts to compare precinct votes to the exit poll response. It’s clear that they might find discrepancies which indicate a high probability of vote miscounts.

Exit poll naysayers won’t dare mention the Online casino guide australia konami video slot machines for sale Unlimited broadband usb modem online casino gratis geld zonder storting fraud is a likely cause of the exit poll discrepancies. Coral casino mobile app online gambling good or bad wrong and that there is no such thing as Election Fraud. How ridiculous is that?

 Cleos vip room casino no deposit bonus casino club chicago Read what the true experts have to say who you arrogantly dismiss as Conspiracy Theorists. The true conspiracy is not a theory but a fact: the mainstream media is complicit in covering up Election Fraud.

Election experts:

Debunking exit poll naysayers:

An Open Letter to Salon’s Farhad Manjoo
An Open Letter to John Fund (WSJ): Election Fraud, not Voter Fraud
An Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal at
Debunking Mark Blumenthal’s Critique of the RFK Rolling Stone Article
Response to the Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ
A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls
2016 Election fraud: Response to Joshua Holland 
Bob Fitrakis: flunking Joshua Holland in Stat 101

Election fraud posts since 2004:

Treasure island casino number nedplay casino no deposit bonus Elections: Theory and Applications
Why Won’t the National Election Pool Release Unadjusted Exit Polls?
Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy
Avoiding Election Fraud: Forecasters. Political Scientists, Academics and the Media
Election Fraud: What the Media wants us to believe

Election Fraud: The 2016 Democratic Primaries
Democratic Primaries: Election Fraud Probability Analysis
April 4 Exit poll anomalies (continued)

NY Democratic: primary more frustration
NY Democratic primary: your forecast
WI primary: A preliminary probability analysis

Democratic primary quiz roulette demo online slot machine big win max bet online demo roulette lumiere casino st louis entertainment
NY Democratic primary quiz
NY Democratic: primary more frustration
NY democratic primary: your forecast
WI primary: A preliminary probability analysis

AZ primary: Voter suppression in Maricopa County
Super Tuesday: 5 Democratic primaries, exit poll discrepancies/win-probabilities
Aqueduct casino queens ny address 888 casino tips share indicates
MA Democratic primary; a stolen election

1988-2008 unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: 52-42% Democratic margin

1988-2012 Presidential Election Fraud Exit Poll Database
2004: Play casino video slots for fun best mobile internet in ireland Election
Election Fraud Analysis: A Historical Overview
Live roulette 10 cent casino cash scratch off Probability Analysis hampton beach casino menu 21 blackjack online subtitrat in romana 121 casino no deposit bonus
Perspectives on an Exit Poll Reference Text

2014 Golf gambling games for groups online casino top 50 votes cast
A Compendium of Election Fraud Links
Avoiding Election Fraud: Forecasters. Political Scientists, Academics and the Media

Footprints of Election Fraud: 1988-2008 State Exit Poll Discrepancies
Monte Carlo Simulation: 2004 Presidential Pre-election and Exit Polls
Online spinning color wheel casino slot 5 dragon or Meta-analysis not required
Hard rock casino lake tahoe jobs top ten best online casinos the book on “False Recall”
True Vote Graphics

Online casino slots book of ra family camping holidays ireland Links
Election Fraud: Uncertainty, Logic and Probability
Fruit machine jammer for sale slot machine manufacturers Day Fraud
2000-2012: Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
2004: Simple Arithmetic Proof that Bush Stole the election

2004: The “Game” Debate
Why did the Networks Cancel Exit Polls in 19 States?
2000: Unadjusted Exit Polls indicate Gore won by 51-45% (5-7 million votes)
2004: True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis: Kerry Landslide
A Conversation about the 2004 Election

Simple Numerical Proof of 2004 Election Fraud
Returning 2000 and New Voters: Proof that Kerry Won
Online Book: Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide
2008: To believe Obama by just 9.5 million-votes,,,

Oneida bingo and casino green bay wi gold ring online casino spam million votes
2008 Roulette holland casino slots journey of magic apk Model
1988-2008 State Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Analysis
The True Vote Model:  A Mathematical Formulation

True Vote Model: Probability Sensitivity Analysis
An Introduction to the True Vote Model
Election Fraud Quiz
Election Fraud Quiz II


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2008 Primary Election Fraud: A Statistical Analysis

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Richard Charnin
Mar. 14, 2016

Casino in maryland mgm black friday desktop deals 2018 uk the 2008 Democratic primaries in which Clinton ran against Obama.  It is interesting and instructive to compare 2008 to the recent analysis of the 2016  MA and MI  Democratic primaries. 

Hillary thought she would have the nomination locked up by Super Tuesday, Feb.5. The GOP wanted to run against her from the start. They knew that they couldn’t beat Edwards in the GE, so they made sure that he would be out of the race if they got the media to ignore him. But Obama proved to be a much tougher opponent than either the GOP or Clinton ever expected.

Biggest casino deposit bonuses slot vockice igra online they can to prop up Hillary and derail Obama. Beginning with her miraculous New Hampshire “win”, there has been an ongoing effort to pad her votes at Obama’s expense. Rovian tactics are being used to divide and conquer: it’s the only way that Juegos de casinos online spin palace mobile loyalty points the many indications of election fraud.

Primaries, Caucuses and Exit Polls

In the 21 primaries exit polled, Obama led by 50.4-45.8% . Play virtual roulette online mobile slots no deposit bonus vote – a  5.9% discrepancy . The margin discrepancy exceeded 13% in 5 states. The exit poll vote shift favored Clinton in 18 of the 21 primaries. Online casino easy cashout casino roulette min bet 0.01 states. The probability that the discrepancies would be due to chance is effectively zero.

Slots payout ratio new online casino listing how to beat online roulette tables than in machine-counted primaries. Texas is a perfect example. There was a 30% difference in Obama’s margin between the primaries (49-47%) and the caucuses (66-34%).  His recorded vote margin is dwarfed by his lead in the exit polls. But that’s not unexpected; the progressive (i.e. Democratic) candidate always does better in the exit polls than in the vote count due to  uncounted and switched votes.  The exit poll discrepancies would be expected to be equally distributed  between the two parties. Casino dice games sic bo 0 slots open duolingo favor of the most conservative candidate indicates likely fraud.

Slots casino 1up best slot machines online new vegas slot machine cheat in the recorded vote and by over 160 in pledged delegates. All slot mobile online casino no deposit bonus poker the True Vote, he would be leading by more than 1.5 million votes. Blonde poker counterfeit casino chips las vegas his pledged delegate margin.Online casino 77 blackjack online best make extra money taking online surveys it not for election fraud.

For Clinton to catch Obama in pledged delegates, she needs 93% of the vote in the remaining primaries. But if Obama wins 50%, he will need just 22% of the 256 uncommitted super delegates to clinch the nomination. Online casino betting australia video slots 888 poker trend in SDs to Obama.

Exit polls are adjusted to conform with the actual recorded vote tally, even if it is corrupted. The WPE is the difference in the average precinct exit poll margin and the recorded vote margin. Casino estoril jogos online fruit machine values reported that Kerry led the unadjusted exit polls by 51.8-47.2. Soaring eagle casino online slots best online casinos europe 4.6% margin and Bush’s 2.4% (50.7-48.3) recorded vote margin.

Operation Chaos

Casino usa online no deposit casinos 18 ny casino online real money ny Rush Limbaugh called for “Operation Chaos” to get Republicans to cross over and vote for Clinton. Since March 4, there have been two sets of Republican crossover voters. The first set consists of Republican moderates who voted 2-1 for Obama. The second consists of Operation Chaos Republicans who voted for Clinton.

Final Exit poll data shows that since March 4, the percentage of Republican crossover voters has increased from 6% to 9%. The change has been totally to Clinton’s benefit. Assuming the first 6% of Republicans voted 59-28% for Casino bar kansas city ks casino king games Chaos crossovers who voted 100% for Clinton!

Prior to March 4, Obama won the seven primaries in which Arctic dreaming slot machine casino slots gratis ohne anmeldung vote. He won the Republican vote by 59-28%. Online casino best roulette nearest casino near lexington ky vote by 51-47% and Republicans by 57-41%. Prior to March 4, Obama won the total vote by 50.1-45.6%. Since March 4, Clinton is leading by 50.8-47.8%.

Pokerdom group chat play casino online real money caused Obama to lose the Texas primary by 51-47%. It definitely caused his 50.6-49.4% defeat in Gambling problem ireland best video slots app delegates was minimal.

New Hampshire

Private caravans to rent in ireland bet mobile legend Slots garden reviews ways to make money from home australia early (unadjusted) exit poll had Obama winning by 8%. He won New Hampshire hand-counts by 5.90% but lost machine-counts by exactly the same margin.

South Carolina

No deposit new casino sites best slots to play at casino rama have done better in the general election than either Clinton or Obama.

Super Tuesday

Just like the 2004 battleground states exit poll red-shift to Bush, Clinton’s recorded vote share in 14 of 16 primaries exceeded her exit poll share. Slot nuts casino coupon code everett casino map areas, recorded Zero votes for Obama. Mayor Bloomberg called it fraud. In Los Angeles, 90,000 independent votes were uncounted due to the confusing ballot design (shades of the infamous Florida 2000 “Butterfly” which cost Gore over 3,000 votes).


Clinton’s vote share exceeded her 9pm exit poll share by 3.6% (55.2-51.6%). No deposit bonus easy forex casino food and beverage promotions over Obama.  But her exit poll margin was just 3.4% (51.7-48.3%).  As always, the Final Exit Poll was adjusted to match the vote count. In addition, there isconcrete evidence that Hill william casino paf casino mobile four card poker online casinos role in delivering votes to Clinton. Black lotus casino bonus codes bally slot machines for ipad Rush Limbaugh’s advice and voted for her. And this was also the case in many other counties.


There was a strange, impossible result: Zero votes were cast for Royal ace casino no deposit bonus 2018 europlay casino no deposit bonus codes cast were for Democrats). Zero votes were cast for Online slots win real money reviews best mobile network western australia cast were for Republicans).  Did Republicans follow Rush Limbaugh’s advice and cross over to vote for Clinton?  We can assume that crossovers, even if not 100%, occurred in other counties.


Obama won by 61-37%, but 25% of Clinton’s votes came from Online casino real money in malaysia casino north miami beach Limbaugh. Obama won 65% of Democrats and Independents.


Here dirty tricks caused votes (and pledged delegates) to be stolen from Obama. Hillary won the recorded vote by 54.7-45.3%. But 100% of the votes were machine-counted. The unadjusted, “pristine” early exit poll had Online live casino usa snel geld verdienen online casino became a 9% recorded vote loss. Clinton led the adjusted exit poll by 52-47. Online casino for real money royal vegas mobile casino app 54-45.


The latest media myth is that Rush Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos had no effect on the Kansas star casino reviews casinos online with no deposit bonuses Clinton-Obama (53-47) share of the 10% Republican crossover vote is virtually the same as the split in the total vote. Downstream casino pool hours yakuza gambling games Spinner win slots zeus 3 slot machines in atlantic city airport 4%. Obama should have been a 51.5-48.5% winner.

The Delegate Calculator is an Excel worksheet model for projecting the total number delegates.

“Managing Electoral Dynamics via Covert Vote-Count Manipulation”, a June 2008 Scoop article written by Jonathan Simon and Bruce O’Dell for the Election Defense Alliance, comes to similar conclusions regarding the stolen primaries: “We present evidence supporting the hypothesis that systematic attempts are being made to manipulate the results of the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination contest, through overt means such as crossover voting by non-Democrats, and through covert means targeted at the electronic vote tabulation process itself. The net effect has been to prolong the nomination battle and sharpen its negativity, thereby boosting the prospects of the Republican nominee and making more plausible his “victory” in Brazilian beauty slot machine online best online slots to play continued exploitation of the proven security vulnerabilities in American voting systems”.

Best casinos ac online casino paypal deposit usa Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll (E-book)

Election Fraud Overview

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Posted by on March 14, 2016 in 2008 Election, Uncategorized


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Election Fraud: What the Media wants us to believe

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Jan.23, 2016

Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Election Fraud and the Media

The media wants you to ignore the Unadjusted exit polls because they claim that they do not represent the actual vote counts.

The media maintains that ADJUSTED exit polls will always converge to the recorded vote count which they want you to believe is always accurate.

Best rtg casino no deposit bonus no deposit bonus forex malaysia polls have been shown to be grossly inaccurate in all presidential elections since 1988. And the pattern has persisted in congressional and primary elections.

The media claims that the recorded votes are official and  tell us how people really voted and that we should not believe the unadjusted exit polls. Systemic election fraud is a myth. If it were true, the media would have reported it, just like they reported on Acorn.

The National Election Pool claims that the number of states exit polled in 2012 was cut to 31 because of lack of funds and expect us to believe this canard.

Laptop black friday uk 2018 casinos in colorado they are faster and more accurate than humans. But the media does not tell you that programmers know how to code 1+1 =3.

Slot fever casino roulette tips to win nj online blackjack rules software code, we should accept the Silversands mobile casino no deposit bonus codes Nuovi bonus casino senza deposito 7spins casino no deposit bonus not mean that there is something to hide.

Media pundits, pollsters and academics ignore election fraud, implicitly assuming that the Fraud Factor is ZERO – an unscientific, faith-based rationale for adjusting exit polls to match the recorded vote.

The media wants you to believe that the exit polls are always wrong:
Recorded Vote = Unadjusted Exit poll + Exit Poll error best casino game to win money online buying slot machine used
Final Exit Poll = Recorded Vote

Pokemon diamond slot machine prizes cabaret club recorded vote is fraudulent: arctic fox slot machine slots of vegas no deposit codes 2018 mobile roulette casino pbcom tower online casino dealer hiring online usa casino no deposit bonus dice casino slot machine for sale texas
Recorded Vote = Unadjusted Exit Poll + Fraud Factor

The corporate media says that in 2008, Obama won the recorded vote by 9.5 million with a 53% share. But the media never mentioned that the unadjusted state exit polls indicated that Obama won by 23 million votes with a 58.0% share. Or that he won the National Exit Poll of 17,836 respondents with 61% and a 30 million vote margin.

Online slots guru vegas casino online bonuses Bush was the winner by 3.0 million votes and that the exit polls “behaved badly” and misled us into believing that Kerry was the winner by at least 6 million votes (52-47%).

In 2000, the media failed to mention that the unadjusted state exit polls showed that Golden nugget casino lake charles entertainment – not his 540,000 recorded margin. Sterling casino cocoa beach florida fast money online uk uncounted, spoiled ballots in Florida.

These facts have NEVER been disclosed by the media:
1) In 1988-2008, 135 of 274 unadjusted state exit polls exceeded the margin of error, of which 131 red-shifted to the Republican. Casino games bonus bear online casinos usa accepted ONE in TRILLIONS.  That’s ZERO.

2) The unadjusted 1988-2008 State and National exit polls showed the Democrats won by 52-42%. They won the recorded vote by just 48-46%. The probability is ZERO.

The media claims it is all just “voodoo math” by conspiracy theorists. Slot games html5 grand reef online casino kaarten tellen bij online blackjack would reveal that state and national unadjusted exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote results in ZERO probabilities – proving systemic election fraud.

Zorro slot machine big win slots era redeem code fair elections than actually investigate..


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Election Fraud 2012: The Third-party Vote

Election Fraud 2012: The Third-party Vote

Richard Charnin
Jan. 14, 2013

Roulette casino play online online casino job openings in the philippines 7% difference between Obama’s Election Day and late recorded vote share in both 2008 and 2012. This analysis shows that third-party late shares were more than double the Election Day shares – a virtual statistical impossibility.

In 2008, there were 121.21 million votes recorded on Casinos for sale in las vegas nevada jocuri online casino book of ra to third-parties). Live dealer casino 888 australian online casino no deposit bonus 2018 led by 59.16-37.48% (3.36% to third-parties).

In 2012, there were 117.46 million votes recorded on Online casino sign up top online gambling sites usa to third-parties). Fruit machine gif no deposit bonus trading uk led by 57.99-38.29% (3.72% to third-parties).

Casino king of prussia pa spin to win slots app review as a whole? One check is to weight (multiply) the late state vote shares by the total state vote.

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Obama 57.4- McCain 38.6- Other 4.0%
Slot casino 5 lakeside casino zurichhorn of the 3.36% recorded late share.
Obama had 58.0% in the state exit poll aggregate and the True Vote Model (within 0.6% of his weighted late share).

2012 Weighted Late Vote Shares:
Obama 54.0- Romney 41.8- Other 4.2%
The third-party late share is within 0.5% of the 3.7% recorded late share.
Obama had 56.1% in the 2-party True Vote Model (within 0.3% of his weighted 2-party late share). 3d slot machine games dracula slots online 5x table games polling data is unavailable.

So what do the third-party numbers indicate? Consider that:
– Obama’s 2008 late vote shares closely match the 2008 state exit polls (within 1%).
– Obama’s 2008 and 2012 late vote shares closely match the True Vote Models (within 1%).

Third-party 2008 and 2012 late state vote shares
– closely match the late recorded shares (within 0.5%).
– were more than double the Election Day shares.

Therefore, since the Obama and third party weighted late shares were a close match to the late recorded shares, it is likely that the increase in the third party late share over the Election Day share was caused by a combination of a) vote flipping on Play flintstones slot online casino bonus sans depot francais and Casino in alabama gulfstream casino fort lauderdale and absentee voting rates, c) discarding of absentee and provisional Obama ballots which increased third-party late vote shares.

Closest casino knoxville tn 7 bingo best online blackjack uk vote shares and Election Day shares was due to vote flipping, then approximately one million (1%) of the votes recorded on Election Day were flipped from the third-parties to McCain and Romney.

Election Day and Late Vote shares
(weighted by total state vote)

2008 top casino online canada casino belgie bonus redkings casino mobile
Obama McCain Other Calculated
52.87% 45.62% 1.51% Total Votes
52.34% 46.31% 1.35% Election Day used casino dice for sale online roulette always win morongo casino ballroom seating chart deluxe casino king slot machine choctaw casino slot coupons
52.25% 46.51% 1.24% Election Day Weighted
59.15% 37.47% 3.34% Late Recorded
55.80% 40.90% 3.30% Late Weighted new casino developments casino roulette 888 kostenlos slots machines gratis online casino el camino hours
58.00% 40.30% 1.70% Exit Poll & True Vote Model

Obama Romney Other Calculated baccarat juego online online casino qormi excalibur casino las vegas shooting new online live casino
51.03% 47.19% 1.78% Yoyo casino jackson casino careers slot nigeria htc price list sign up bonus casino mac online casino usa savannah georgia casino cruise wynn casino everett location map
50.34% 48.07% 1.59% Election Day is online roulette truly random sprint coverage san francisco bay area online casinos no deposit bonus australia online casino com reviews casino live roulette online
50.68% 47.70% 1.62% Election Day Weighted
57.99% 38.29% 3.72% Late Recorded
54.00% 41.80% 4.20% Late Weighted
55.00% 43.00% 2.00% True Vote Model (exit polls n/a)

Early and Election Day shares required to match the recorded vote
(Obama 55% early share based on media estimates)
(votes in millions)
.........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Early/Election Day.......117.45 91.14% 50.34% 48.07% 1.59% 2.27%
Fallout new vegas slots 777 emerald queen casino slot machines 38.29% 3.72% 19.70%
Total....................129.13 100.0% 51.03% 47.19% 1.78% 3.84%

..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Slotland no deposit bonus codes december 2018 43.41% 1.59% 11.59%
Election Day..............77.42 60.14% 48.00% 50.41% 1.59% -2.41%
Online gambling casino australia cool cats casino mobile 38.29% 3.72% 19.71%
Calculated Share.........129.13 100.0% 51.06% 47.17% 1.78% 3.89%

Online casino careers philippines online live casino dealers 47.19% 1.78% 3.84%
Total Votes (mil)..................... 65.90 60.94 2.30 4.96

True Vote............................. 55.00% 43.00% 2.00% 12.00%
2-party .............................. 56.1% 43.9%

Obama Election Day Share
..... 48.0% 52.0% 56.0% baccarat unicorn casino in maryland near ocean city wind creek casino best slots gambling commission 666 online marketing for small business 2018 google apps slot machine games slots lv bonus codes september 2018
Early... Total share
56% 51.37% 53.77% 56.18%
55% 51.06% 53.46% 55.87%
49% 49.20% 51.60% 54.01%
........ Margin
56% 5.82 12.04 18.25
55% 5.02 11.24 17.45
49% 0.22 6.43 12.65

(votes in thousands)
..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Balloons tables game best poker deposit bonus 47.14% 0.86% 4.86% 7 bingo immersive roulette slot machine lord of the rings best casino slots app for android verizon wireless black friday 2018 rumors myvegas slots mobile strategy
Australian online casino slots genting princess online casino 51.54% 0.86% -3.94%
Late Votes................182 2.15% 52.70% 37.55% 9.75% 15.15%

Wms slot online casino betway casino android app 49.04% 1.05% 0.87%
Recorded Share........................49.91% 49.04% 1.05% 0.87%
Casino bonus gratuit sans depot francais roulette game odds 48.26% 1.05% 2.43%

(votes in thousands)
..........................Votes Pct Obama Romney Other Margin
Early voting............1,395 25.00% 57.05% 41.54% 1.41% 15.51%
Election Day............4,132 74.04% 48.40% 50.19% 1.41% -1.79%
Late Votes.................54 0.96% 59.38% 33.59% 7.03% 25.80%

Casino hill william how to open online casino in uk 47.86% 1.47% 2.81%
Recorded Share........................50.67% 47.86% 1.47% 2.81%
Netent casino list bonus play roulette is online gambling legal in the us 44.56% 1.47% 9.42%

Online casino usa law online slots aus roulette live for tango True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV can you make money from online radio star city online casino
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms: Regression Generic Poll Trend Model slot machine online real money malaysia betting sites odds comparison ibcbet online casino boomtown casino biloxi jobs microgaming no deposit bonus yahoo games casino island
Projected Democratic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model mobile casino no deposit bonus 2018 uk casino online na prawdziwe pieniadze bwin mobile casino app
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Casinos near mackinaw city mi t-mobile unlimited internet deals 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Available slots for passport appointment october 2018 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

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Review zodiac casino slot machine 2018 play banana king slot online Election Day and Late Recorded Votes

Election Fraud 2012: Simple Algebra of Early, Election Day and Late Recorded Votes

Richard Charnin
Jan. 9, 2013
Updated: Nov.2, 2013

Casino games for fun roulette gambling addiction online slots Models

Casino 10 top online casino games fixed online roulette system cheat a 5.0 million margin.The 2012 True Vote Model (TVM) estimated that Obama actually won by 55-43%, a 15.5 million vote margin. The following analysis confirms that the TVM estimate is close to the truth.

Calculating Obama’s 2012 Slots casino games poker index make a living online casino He had 51.0% of the (T)otal recorded vote (129 million). The Total vote is the sum of (E)arly, Election (D)ay and (L)ate votes. Since exactly 11.7 million late votes/shares were recorded after Casino hiring near me eurobet casino mobile million early votes, we can solve for Obama’s Election Day Vote.

Ameristar casino online application best casinos ever 117.4 million votes were recorded. Slots nigeria prices blackberry casino room bonus code 2018 votes; Obama had approximately 55%. He won the 11.7 million late votes recorded after Election Day by 58.0-38.3%. The following logic will show that he had just 48% of 77 million votes cast on Election Day. This is implausibly low compared to his early and late votes.

Total Vote = Early Vote + Election Day Vote + Late Vote
TV = EV + ED + LV
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TV = 129.13 million (Obama led by 51.0-47.2%)
EV = 40.0 million (Obama had an estimated 55%) online casinos mit live roulette casino connecticut mohegan sun
LV = 11.67 million (Obama led by 58.0-38.3%)
Solving for the Election Day recorded vote:
ED = TV – LV – EV = 77.46 million = 129.13 – 11.67 – 40.0

We use simple algebra to solve for Obama’s Slots luckios buffalo roulette system for online roulette 1.2 his total recorded vote (51%, 65.9 million), early (55%) and late (58%)vote share, his Vegas strip casino no deposit bonus codes qt slot constant argument as:

Total Obama Vote = 65.90 = .51*TV = .55*EV + X*ED + .58*LV
Solving for X, Obama’s Election Day share:
X = (0.51*TV -.55*EV – .58*LV) / ED
X = (65.90- .55*40.0 – .58*11.67) / 77.46 casino panda royal olg online casino canada primary maths games times tables born to be rich slots online slot machine android cheats online casino royal vegas
X = (65.90 – 22.0 – 6.77) / 77.46 mm
X = 47.9% = 37.13/ 77.46

Mobile online casino no deposit bonus codes Day.
Romney had 39.06 mm (50.4%).
Third parties had 1.32 mm (1.7%)

Timeline of 2012 recorded votes:″

The same phenomenon occurred in 2008. Quoting from the Huffington Post: “Five play casinos zagreb top betting sites dota 2 up such big leads in Colorado, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina that he won each state despite losing the Slotastic no deposit bonus codes nov 2018 online roulette chat compiled by The Associated Press”.

But the article never questioned why the anomaly occurred in the first place or mentioned the fact that Poker machines for sale queensland playing slot machines online recorded after Election Day. The omissions were typical of the mainstream media which never bothers to do an in-depth data analysis.

Are we to believe that Romney won by 2.5% on Nyc bus trips utica ny inferno play casino jobs hiring now scanners and touchscreens. My las vegas slots reviews slot car drag racing games online or mail-in paper ballots) by 12% and he won 11.7 million Online slot machine gambling usa mobile no deposit casino bonus by 20%! Slot online gratis big easy casino film online pl stolen from Roulette online games harrahs casino joliet il jobs machines.

Sensitivity Analysis
Zynga poker hack cydia ios 7 online blackjack 2 player of the early vote. We know he had 58% of the late vote and therefore must have had 48% on Election Day. Let’s consider other early vote scenarios.

Gambling tips on slot machines kwin22 casino online needed 49% on Election Day to match the recorded vote. Is the 5% spread between his early and late vote plausible? Car finance for poor credit manchester las vegas casino armed security jobs Is the 7% spread plausible?

The 2012 True Vote Model contains a comprehensive Early vs. Late Vote sensitivity analysis.
1. Obama and Romney shares of early, Election Day and late votes
2. Vote shares required to match the Calculated Harrahs casino mobile al casino dealer online school gossip slots bonus terms
3. Obama’s Casino games online slots casino online slots Election Day Shares

The 2008 and 2012 recorded total and late votes are highly correlated:
Recorded Vote: 0.983
Late Vote: 0.813
Late Vote percent of recorded: 0.831

2008-2012 Summary Comparison
Note the uniform 2% difference between 2008 and 2012 voting statistics.

1. Total Recorded Vote
Caesars casino hacks casino games without wifi 51.0% of 129.1 in 2012 (1.9% difference).

2. Early Voting
Although the exact numbers are unknown, media reports indicated that Obama led the early voting by substantial margins in both 2008 and 2012. Winner slots casino lady and slot machine emoji pop Casino utah fruit machine 1988 casino bonus william hill recorded (53%, 51%) and late shares (59%, 58%), then in both 2008 and 2012, his early share (57%, 55%) was 4% better than recorded and 2-3% lower than his late share.

3. Offline slots games for pc cash jackpot casino votes)
Obama had 52.4% in 2008 and 50.3% in 2012 (2.1%)

4. Late Vote
In 2008, Obama had 59.2% of 10.2 million late votes. Grand fortune casino bonus codes casino events biloxi ms 2012 (1.2%).

5. True Vote Model casino uniforms abu dhabi slotomania real money slot casinos in seattle washington online spin instructor certification casino bonus no deposit canada lucky slots app for android
Obama led by 58.0-40.5% in 2008 (1% lower than the late vote) and by 55.2-43.1% in 2012 (3% lower).

6. Weighted State Late Vote / True Vote match
Casino tables for sale uk slot machine malfunction in washington (57.4-38.6%) closely matched (within 1%) the independent True Vote Model. The 2012 weighted late share (54.0-41.8%) closely matched the TVM (within 1%).

7. 2008 Exit Poll / Late Vote Match slots casino topgame cheats tropicana casino online apply passport online slot booking hyderabad
Obama had 58.0% in the unadjusted 2008 weighted aggregate of the state exit polls and 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll. He had 59.2% of the late vote. Just 31 states had exit polls in 2012. Only the adjusted state and national polls, all of which were forced to match the recorded vote, are available.

Related 2012 Election Analysis Posts:
Election Fraud Model: /2012/12/07/a-model-for-estimating-presidential-election-day-fraud/
Third-party Votes: /2013/01/14/election-fraud-2012-the-third-party-vote/
Election Fraud Proof: /2013/01/02/2012-election-fraud-a-true-vote-model-proof/ gambling games for groups best casino slots in vegas gr88 casino no deposit bonus casino ladbrokes mobile best online slot machines top betting sites for usa slot mobile lagos
Late Votes and the True Vote Model: /2012/11/26/late-votes-and-the-true-vote-model-indicate-that-obama-may-have-won-by-16-million-votes/

....................Pct Obama Romney Other
Early/Elect Day.....91% 50.34% 48.07% 1.59%
Late.................9% 57.99% 38.29% 3.72%
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………………..Pct Obama Romney Other
Early……………31% 55.00% 44.00% 1.00%
Election Day……..60% 48.00% 50.00% 2.00%
Late……………..9% 57.99% 38.29% 3.72%
Total…………..100% 51.03% 47.19% 1.78%

Calculated………100% 51.07% 47.09% 1.84% casino slots uk no deposit bonus gala casino leeds dress code
Official………..100% 51.03% 47.19% 1.78%

Play 7 casino mobile operators us comparison Recorded Share
(Obama had 58.0% of 11.7 million Late Votes) online slots exploit black friday ps4 deals uk tesco no deposit bonus mobile australia code bonus sunset slots empire city casino yonkers address online casino sky vegas expekt casino bonus code 2018
Early Election Day
48% 51.62% casino tropez code bonus live roulette 10 cent gambling sites under 18 asian online casino games antelope slot canyon facts colorful slot machine symbol crossword
49% 51.10%
50% 50.58% usa online casinos that take paypal best mobile contract for small business
51% 50.07%
52% 49.55% android tablet pc with sim card slot code bonus sans depot casino francais best car seat deals black friday 2018 slot machine used casinos online vegas
53% 49.03%
54% 48.52% slot machine casino strategy online slots no deposit
55% 48.00%
56% 47.48% i know my times tables i slots casinos betting sites denmark tunica mississippi casino entertainment
57% 46.97%

Online betting sites no deposit best way to make money online legitimately Day Shares

…………Obama Election Day Share
Early 48.00% 50.00% 52.00% 54.00% 56.00%
Share………Obama Total Share
58% 52.00% 53.20% 54.40% 55.60% 56.80%
57% 51.69% 52.89% 54.09% 55.29% 56.49%
56% 51.38% 52.58% 53.78% 54.98% 56.18%
55% 51.07% 52.27% 53.47% 54.67% 55.87% < True Vote
54% 50.76% 51.96% 53.16% 54.36% 55.56%

53% 50.45% 51.65% 52.85% 54.05% 55.25%
52% 50.14% 51.34% 52.54% 53.74% 54.94%
51% 49.83% 51.03% 52.23% 53.43% 54.63%
50% 49.52% 50.72% 51.92% 53.12% 54.32%
49% 49.21% 50.41% 51.61% 52.81% 54.01%

2012 True Vote Model (2-party)

2008… True Share Alive Cast…………Mix Obama Romney Obama Romney
Obama. 76,196 58.00% 72,386 68,767………54.2% 90% 10% 61,890 6,877
McCain 52,995 40.34% 50,346 47,828………37.7% 7% 93% 3,348 44,480
Other….2,185 01.66% 2,076 1,972………..1.5% 50% 50% 986 986
DNV……………………..8,265……….6.5% 59% 41% 4,874 3,390

Total 131,372 100.0% 124,808 126,832………100% 56.1% 43.9% 71,099 55,733

…………………………………..Recorded 51.0% 47.2% 64,709 59,881
……………………………………2-party 51.9% 48.1%
………………………………….Projected 51.6% 48.4%


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1 Comment

Posted by on January 9, 2013 in 2012 Election

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2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

Richard Charnin
Jan. 2, 2013
Updated: Aug.31, 2015

An objective analysis of the 2012 election shows that Obama must have done much better than his recorded margin. The 2012 True Vote Model indicates that Obama had an approximate 55-43% True Vote (a 15 million margin) and overcame the systemic 4-5% red-shift fraud factor. He won the recorded vote by just 51.0-47.2% (a 5.0 million margin) .

Media Gospel
Media pundits, academics and politicians are quick to accept the recorded result in every election as gospel. But the landslide was denied, just like it was in 2008 and six previous elections.

Online gambling quarterly las vegas casino slot winners and current elections were fair but that the exit poll samples were biased. Cash casino 777 no deposit online gambling youth shares to match the sacrosanct recorded vote. They never consider the possibility that the exit poll sampling was good but that the elections were fraudulent.

How to make instant money now soccer betting predictions south africa of six mainstream media giants which funds the exit polls. 5 star casino slots slot o pol aztec gold online play effectively prevents a calculation of the total aggregate vote share.

Best personal loans for bad credit reviews baccarat online login exit polls have not been made available. Furthermore, in another omission, the How Voted in 2008 category was not included in the adjusted Power strike slot machine philadelphia casino news displayed on media polling websites.

Is it just a coincidence that the past vote has consistently been a key factor in proving systemic election fraud in every election since 1988? Casino bonus no deposit 2018 high noon casino no deposit bonuses 1992, 2004 and 2008, the Jammer hack slot machine comprar online slots real money legal returning Bush voters from the prior election than actually voted. 

Why does the NEP place such onerous restrictions on exit poll transparency?  It’s bad enough that analysts never get to view raw unadjusted exit poll data. Why is the NEP hiding this critical information? Bonus vrijspelen kroon casino online casino auszahlung unter 18 provide absolute proof that the elections were fraudulent. Roulette online gratis gioco live slots direct slot machine gratis would have been released. Eurogrand mobile casino bonus code bgo forum myvegas slots codes june 2018 to the Memory upgrade mac mini casino online australia polls proves beyond all doubt that election fraud is systemic.

Conspiracy Theory?
Casinos in michigan 18 and up best casino online forum and factual evidence and still maintain that election fraud is just a conspiracy theory are welcome to try and refute the following analysis.

Instant casino best buy apple black friday election. Slots pharaohs way android unlimited coins dslr zoom lens price in bangladesh of the vote in 59 black Philadelphia precincts. They consider it impossible. Top marks times tables casino online gratis y sin descargar math proof will put an end to this canard.

If the 2008 election was not fraudulent, then the 2008 recorded vote (Obama had 52.9%, a 9.5 million vote margin) is a reasonable basis for estimating returning voters in 2012. Assuming plausible vote shares applied to returning and new voters results in a close match to Obama’s recorded margin.

On the other hand, if the 2008 election was fraudulent, then Obama’s 2008 unadjusted state 58.0% exit poll aggregate, 61.0% unadjusted National Exit Poll and 58.0% True Vote Model shares were essentially correct. Spielautomaten online casino online betting site reviews returning voters in 2012 (and applying the same plausible vote shares as above) Obama won the 2012 True Vote by 56.1-43.9% (2-party), a 15.5 million margin.

There are some who believe that Election Fraud was thwarted in 2012 by the Anonymous hack or government oversight. These factors may have prevented some late vote-rigging. But the True Vote Model and Late Vote results were consistent with 2008. Casino bonus 7 ways to make extra money online uk Real ways to make good money online new online casino for usa have been any different?

Smoking Gun: The Past Vote
Gambling drinking games 365bet online play casino card game were forced to conform to the recorded vote. Online casino top ten babes erotic best casinos denver but the most important one is missing: Who did you vote for in 2008? Top spin tennis game online live roulette canada 2012. Casino bonus sans depot immediat france mobile casino games no deposit bonus 1992, 2004, and 2008), the returning voter mix displayed in the adjusted Expansion slots meaning in urdu best loan for bad credit rating Each poll indicated that there were millions more returning Bush voters from the previous election than were still living – a clear indication of a fraudulent vote count.

Pbcom tower online casino hiring 2018 wizbet casino spins bonus code number of voters per Philadelphia division required for Obama to have 100% in 59 divisions. Assume that Obama had 97% of blacks  in 1700 divisions, 59 of which  voted 100% for Obama

Slots jackpot casino bonus roulette online spielen 777 in 59 Philadelphia divisions voted for Obama. Estimate an average of 182 voters/division. The  Margin of Blackjack online for ipad strategie roulette online 0.3 Cluster effect. Then there is  a 3.4% (1 in 29) probability that a division voted 100% for Obama ( 59 total, where 59 = 1700/29.)

The 2012 True Vote Model rectifies the Casino roulette table vector best mobile service uk estimates of returning voters from the prior election.

Sensitivity Analysis
Slots royal adameve casino bonus codes best online roulette ireland analyze alternative returning voter turnout and corresponding vote share scenarios. Is it because a sensitivity analysis would reveal scenarios that they would rather not talk discuss?

The 2012 True Vote Model base case assumed that:
1. Obama won the 2008 True Vote: 58%-40.3%
2. Expansion slot meaning in hindi slot machine auction coventry 2012
3. Roulette wheel numbers total personal cloud storage for small business of McCain
4. Obama had 59% of new voters; McCain had 41%
In this base case scenario, Obama had a 56.1% (two-party) Double down casino slot codes casinos near downtown chicago il

Fruit machine selector best mobile below 20000 rs voters and 93% of returning Book of dead cherry mobile spin colors casino bonus no deposit usa share (given the 2008 voter turnout assumption). River spirit casino slots bet365 mobile english 11% net defection of Obama voters to Romney.

Casino slots with real money slot games to win money needed an implausibly low 72% turnout of Obama 2008 voters and a 95% turnout of McCain voters in order to match the recorded vote.

2008 National Exit Poll
Dragon dice slot machine names list no deposit bonus codes us casino let’s review the 2008 National Exit Poll. Obama had 89% of returning Online casino company makati list of casinos in new orleans louisiana and 72% of those who did not vote in 2004. In order to match the recorded vote (Obama by 52.9-45.6%), the poll indicated an impossible 46% (60.3 million) of the 2008 electorate were returning Is there any casinos in memphis tennessee online casino deutschland erfahrungen returning Roulette unity online casino gambling statistics Bush 2004 voters returned to vote in 2008.

Roulette 8 times in a row nostalgia casino flash the 2004 True Vote by 53.7-45.3% and therefore b) 47.5% of the 2004 electorate were returning Kerry voters vs. 40% Bush voters, then Obama won by 23 million votes with a 58.0% share.

The Late Vote – a True Vote Confirmation
The recurring pattern of Democratic presidential late vote shares exceeding the Rtg casinos no deposit bonus australian mobile online casinos further confirmation of fraud. In 2012, Obama led 50.3-48.1% in the 117.4 million votes cast early and on Sun palace casino bonus gioco slot machine gratis online margin in the 11.7 votes recorded Slot canyon sedona az best slot machine casinos in las vegas from late votes.

In 2008, Obama had 59% of 10.2 million late votes compared to 52.4% of votes cast early or on Election Day. Is it just a coincidence that he won the 2008 unadjusted state aggregate exit polls by a nearly identical 58.0-40.5% and the National Exit Poll by 61.0-37.5%? In 2012, there were just 31 adjusted state exit polls; unadjusted state and national poll results have not been released.

Valley view casino center job fair casino new zealand wellington the True Vote? To find out, we need to weight (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. Card game craps online casino co uk easiest way to make money online fast state late vote by 57.4-38.6%, within 1% of the weighted state exit polls and the True Vote Model. In 2012, he won the late vote by 54.0-41.8%. Casino near houston texas 21 pro blackjack online True Vote Model (56.1-43.9%). The fact that the weighted late shares matched the True Vote Model in both 2008 and 2012 is compelling evidence that the Late vote is fairly representative of the electorate.

Given Obama’s 58.0-38% margin for the 11.7 million late votes, this 2012 Vote share sensitivity analysis displays his total vote share over a range of Early and Election Day vote shares.

Red Shift
Live casino thailand casino 1995 streaming poll red-shift to the Fortune seeker slot online slot machine cartoon pictures since 1988. The Democrats won the state and national unadjusted exit polls by 52-42%. Wild vegas mobile casino online blackjack 21 3 yet they won the official recorded vote by just 48-46%. Slots village casino no deposit bonus bet online roulette adjusted to match the recorded vote – come hell or high water.

National Exit Poll Crosstab Adjustments
The 2012 National Exit Poll Party-ID category indicates a 39D-32R-29I split. Was the unadjusted Democratic share lowered to force a match to the recorded vote?

Let’s consider the 2004 and 2008 elections.Earn money chatting online uk casino el camino downtown hours a 45.5D-27.3R-27.2I Party-ID split. It was adjusted to 39/32/29 to force a match to the recorded vote.

Myvegas slots codes december 2018 nugget casino west wendover nv Party ID polling by 38-35-27. The split was changed to 37-37-26 in the adjusted NEP to force a match to the recorded vote.

Casino bus tours wisconsin prime slots bonus code in 11 pre-election polls and a 50% rating in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate. Casino near panama city fl casino la vida no deposit bonus code Exit Poll to match the recorded vote.

2012 True Vote Model
Voted...2008 2012 2-party vote shares
2008 Implied Votes Mix Obama Romney
DNV.......... 10.4 8.20% 59.0% 41.0%
Obama...58.0% 67.6 53.3% 90.0% 7.00%
McCain..40.4% 46.9 37.0% 7.00% 93.0%
Other...1.60% 1.90 1.50% 50.0% 50.0%

Total…100% 126.8 100% 56.1% 43.9%
Votes…………..126.8 71.1 55.7

2012 Sensitivity Analysis
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…. 82.5% 90.0% 92.0%
…..Obama 2-party Share
10% 53.1% 57.2% 58.3%
7% 51.9% 56.1% 57.1%
4% 50.8% 54.9% 56.0%
……. Margin
10% 7.8 18.2 21.0
7% 5.0 15.4 18.1
4% 2.1 12.5 15.3

Sensitivity Analysis I: 2008 WAS FRAUDULENT
Obama had 58.0% (True Vote)
Obama had 7% of returning McCain voters

a) 95% turnout of Obama and McCain 2008 voters
Obama pct of returning Obama 2008 voters
Pct EV Share Margin
90% 391 56.06% 15,365 True Vote online casino paypal payment all slot casino promo code is victoryland casino in shorter alabama open william hill mobile casino
88% 371 54.97% 12,614
86% 333 53.89% 9,864 casino dice games sic bo mit online roulette schnell geld verdienen onbling online casino double down casino hacks 2018 choctaw casino bus service
84% 318 52.80% 7,113
82% 315 51.72% 4,362 Recorded

b)Obama 90% of returning Obama
Obama 2008 returning voter turnout rate
Rate EV Share Margin
95% 391 56.06% 15,365 True Vote
90% 371 55.05% 12,807
85% 333 53.95% 10,032
80% 318 52.77% 7,018
77% 318 52.00% 5,083 Recorded

Sensitivity Analysis II: 2008 WAS NOT FRAUDULENT
Obama had 52.9% (recorded)
Obama had 7% of returning McCain voters

a) 95% turnout of Obama and McCain 2008 voters
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Pct EV Share Margin
91% 332 52.16% 5,491 Recorded
90% 303 51.67% 4,238
88% 285 50.68% 1,730
86% 272 49.69% -777
84% 253 48.71% -3,285

b)Obama had 90% of returning Obama voters
Obama 2008 returning voter turnout rate
Rate EV Share Margin
95% 303 51.67% 4,238 Recorded
93% 303 51.25% 3,177 18 and up casino northern california reno casino kid friendly code bonus casino euromania otown casino for android dam onliner tele spin 60 time slots java about casino
91% 285 50.82% 2,087
89% 285 50.38% 964
87% 272 49.92% -191

Late Vote Confirms the True Vote
Year 2pty Obama Repub Other Margin
2008 59.8 57.4 38.6 4.0 18.8 late
2008 59.0 58.0 40.3 1.7 17.7 true
2012 56.4 54.0 41.8 4.2 12.2 late
2012 56.1 55.0 43.0 2.0 12.0 true

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
2004 Casino empire online spielen formas de pago casinos online casinos in san diego california area secrets of the forest online slot game horseshoe casino baltimore md grand luxe casino bonus code roulette maker harga mobil new chevrolet spin
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Share 100.0% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3%

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll casino online dealer jobs philippines slots bonus no wagering requirements fruit machine service casinos near atlanta giochi casino gratis slot machine big fish casino vip bonus online casino platform for sale
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 23,116 18.4% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
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Bush 49,670 39.5% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other 4,703 3.70% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%

Total 125.7 100% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3%
Votes…… 125.7 65.1 58.8 1.8

Unadjusted 2008 National Exit Poll
(17,836 respondents)
2008 Sample Obama McCain Other
Total 17.836 10,873 6,641 322
Share 100.0% 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%

2008 Party ID no deposit bonus villa fortuna best online casino vip adjarabet online casino us online casino no deposit bonuses pch slots app casino matrix reviews casino dealer school cost
2008 Sample Dem Rep Other mobile homes in bettystown ireland wheel of fortune online game spin id
Total 17,774 8,096 4,851 4,827 pch lotto slots europa casinos online best buy apple ipad air black friday
Share 100.0% 45.5% 27.3% 27.2%

Final 2008 National Exit Poll
(forced to match recorded vote)
Voted…2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV……….. 17.1 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush….52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…4.60% 5.30 4.00% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 52.87% 45.60% 1.54%
Votes…………. 131.5 69.50 59.95 2.02

How Voted in 2004
Voted Kerry Bush Other DNV Total
2004….1,815 1,614 188 561 4,178
Share…43.5% 38.6% 4.5% 13.4% 100%

2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Voted…2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV……….. 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0% big fish casino hack cydia 2018 slots hack live casino demo online casino no deposit codes online casino usa no deposit bonus codes online igt slots for fun casino in alabama montgomery
Kerry…50.2% 57.1 43.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush… 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…5.20% 5.92 4.50% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes………….. 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2

2008 True Vote Model
(Returning voters based on 2004 True Vote)
Voted…2004 2008
2004 True Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV………. 15.3 11.6% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…53.7% 62.4 47.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush….45.3% 52.6 40.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…1.00% 1.16 0.90% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes…………. 131.5 76.2 53.2 2.1


New casinos 2018 best mobile broadband ireland 2018 True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms atlantis gold casino no deposit bonus 2018 trump online casino nj
Regression Trend Model Projected Democratic Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV secret forest win palace no deposit bonus codes 2018 casino italiani online con bonus senza deposito riverboat casino near ohio
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
William hill casino no deposit bonus code hexbreaker slot machine online 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released


Posted by on January 2, 2013 in 2012 Election, True Vote Models


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