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Implausible: the NJ Unadjusted Exit Poll

Richard Charnin
Nov. 13, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Make money online app review cool maths games co uk Votes and the National Poll
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Are we to believe the NJ exit poll?
Clinton won the poll by 59.8-35.8%, an 880,000 vote margin. 
Are we to believe she had 67% of Independents compared to 28% for Trump?

She won the recorded vote with 55.0-41.8%.
Online slot machines malaysia betfred casino bonus code True Vote.  paint spin art online betonline ag reviews no deposit bonus oct 2018 casino titan no deposit bonus casino bayton ltd myvegas slots secrets
There is always a fraud factor.
The True Vote Model estimates Clinton won NJ by 50.7-46.4%

JILL STEIN HAD JUST 1%. WHERE DID HER VOTES GO?

CNN National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote)
Clinton wins 47.8-47.4% online slots for money canada m8trix casino san jose slot machines mobile homes for sale in ireland wexford william hill casino bonus code no deposit compare mobile company uk black friday uk 2018 apple
Trump won Independents: 48-42%
CNN National Party ID: 37D- 33R- 30I 
Gallup party affiliation: 32D-28R-40I 

NJ Recorded Vote (CNN)
Clinton wins: 55.0-41.8% (486,000 vote margin)
Party ID: 43D- 27R- 30I 
Clinton won Independents: 51-38%

NJ Unadjusted exit poll run wolf asda black friday 2018 uk online 855 online casino casino igre online forum caesars palace casino slots
Clinton wins: 59.8-35.8% (879,000 vote margin)
Party ID: 43D- 27R- 30I
Clinton won Independents: 67-28% (implausible)

NJ True Vote Model
Clinton wins 50.7-46.4% (157,000 vote margin)
Party ID: 25.8D -15.7R -58.5I 
Trump wins Independents: 52-46%

National True Vote Model
Gallup Party-ID:  32D- 28R- 40I 

Before Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA)
Trump wins the popular vote: 44.4-42.9% (1.6 million vote margin)
Trump wins the recorded Electoral vote: 306-232

After Undecided Voter Allocation
Trump wins  48.5%-44.3% (5 million vote margin)
Trump wins the True Electoral Vote: 351-187

 

New Jersey
Unadjusted EP Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 43% 86% 12% 1% 1%
Rep 27% 10% 82% 6% 2%
Ind 30% 67% 28% 3% 2%
Calc 100% 59.8% 35.7% 3.0% 1.6%
Unadjusted 100% 59.8% 35.8% 3.0% 1.4%
Votes (000) 3,663 2,190 1,311 110 51
    Margin -879    
    Margin -24.0%  
Reported Vote  Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 43% 86% 12% 0% 2%
Rep 27% 10% 82% 7% 1%
Ind 30% 51.0% 48.0% 0.0% 1%
Calc 100% 55.0% 41.7% 1.9% 1.4%
Reported 100% 55.0% 41.8% 1.9% 1.0%
Votes (000) 3,663 2,022 1,536 69 36
    Margin -486    
    Margin -13.3%
True Vote Model Party ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 25.8% 86% 12% 0% 2%
Rep 15.7% 10% 82% 7% 1%
Ind 58.5% 46.0% 52.0% 1.0% 1%
True Vote 100.0% 50.7% 46.4% 1.7% 1.3%
Votes (000) 3,663 1,856 1,699 62 46
    Margin -157    
    Margin -4.3%    

2016-presidential-election-table_nov-10-2016

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