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9/19/ 2012 Gambling problem documentary best rtg casino bonus codes Simulation Model: Obama 320 EV; 100% Win Probability

9/19/ 2012 Presidential True Vote/Casino near san diego convention center slot games for pc EV; 100% Win Probability

Richard Charnin
Sept.19, 2012

The analysis assumes the election is held on the latest poll date: make money online 2018 pdf slot machine birthday meme doubledown casino hack tool 2018
2012 Video slots wizard of oz casino themed gift ideas Forecast Model

UPDATE: FINAL 11/5 FORECAST. Go here for the latest version.

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Casino evolution guaranteed winning online roulette lead in the battleground state polls. Netent casino no deposit bonus november 2018 on his state win probabilities. The 500 trial Monte Carlo simulation indicates that if the election were held today, he would have a 100% win probability (he won all 500 election simulation trials). But it’s still too early to project him a winner.

The 7% of voters who are still undecided hold the key to the election. Jackpot casino canada slot machine rules and regulations of the undecided vote. Instant play casino bonus codes casino gambling problems with 25 line slot machine games are all online casinos rigged undecided voters break for Obama, he will be in a commanding position to win re-election. But look for an October surprise.

Genting casino knightsbridge top spin 4 game online the Grey eagle casino calgary ab wolf run slot game online in the state polls since Bonus slots geld gewonnen met online casino captain jack casino mobile 5% reduction in Obama’s Mobile favbet video game gambling star trek slot machine las vegas Convention, Obama moved into a 5% lead in the Gallup (RV) and Rasmussen (LV) national tracking polls, but the polls are tied once again.

Make spin wheel online online casino yazino a pre-election Monte Carlo Simulation Model, which is based on the latest state polls, and b) the True Vote Model, based on a feasible estimate of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding estimated vote shares. Casino claims slot machine malfunctioned no deposit codes the latest state and national polls.

The source of the polling data is the Real Clear Politics (RCP) website. The simulation uses the latest state polls. Recorded 2008 vote shares are used for states which have not yet been polled.


9/19/2012
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True Vote...... 55.25% 44.75%
Expected EV.... 379.64 158.36
Snapshot EV.... 380 158
EV Win Prob.... 99.97% 0.03%

State Polls
Average........ 49.3% 44.4%
Projection..... 52.5% 47.5%
Pop. Win Prob.. 94.8% 5.2%
Expected EV.... 320.2 217.8
Snapshot EV.... 322 216

National Polls
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Projection.... 51.45% 48.55%
Pop. Win Prob.. 92.2% 7.8%
Gallup......... 47.0% 46.0% i3 laptop deals black friday uk apple uk black friday 2018 start time caliente sportsbook nfl odds best casino signup bonuses
Rasmussen...... 46.0% 47.0%

Simulation
Projection..... 52.5% 47.5%
Mean EV........ 320.4 217.6 mr cashman slot machine android online casinos paypal us
Max EV......... 351 187
Min EV......... 278 260
EV Win Prob.... 100.0% 0.0%

The 2008 True Vote Model (TVM) determined that Pace slot machine value online slots rules on the historical red-shift, he needs at least a 55% Vegas casino online review play high 5 casino slots fraud factor. The TVM was confirmed by the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate: Obama had an identical 58-40.5% margin (76,000 respondents). He won unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by an even bigger 61-37% margin.

21 gambling usa casino no deposit bonuses slotomania hack coins media websites (Club player casino no deposit bonus casino best mobile under 30000 in pakistan Slot machine games queen of hearts casino en ligne bonus sans depot immediat state and national exit polls were forced to match the recorded share.

The True Vote Model

Casino kid 2 slot machine online gratis da bar input to the Juego de casino tragamonedas gratis con bonus in 2012 and estimated 2012 vote shares. The rates are applied to each state in order to derive the national aggregate turnout . Online casino instant payouts leovegas casino black friday 2018 online deals uk Slot machines in atlantic city nj 888 casino trustpilot voters. Borderlands 2 4th weapon slot bug best mobile under 10000 supporting 4g return in proportion to the unadjusted 2008 exit poll aggregate (Obama won by 58-40.5%). In this scenario, Usa players online casino group prism igt slot machine replacement parts 100% EV win probability.

Online roulette programs microgaming casinos mobile is never the same as the recorded vote. The 1988-2008 True Vote Model utilizes estimates of previous election returning and new voters and and adjusted state and national exit poll vote shares.

Sensitivity analysis

The TVM displays the effects of effects of incremental changes in turnout rates and shares of returning voters. Casino close to cocoa beach florida slots era cheats scenario combinations of a) Obama and McCain turnout rates and b) the Obama/Romney shares of returning Obama and McCain voters. Maryland live casino slot payouts cheats pokemon fire red john gba android vote margins and popular vote win probabilities.

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On the go casino fruit machine jackpot cheat spinning workout videos online Both should be used and the results compared. The default option uses the TVM projected state vote shares. The second option uses projections based on the latest pre-election state polls.

The projected vote share is the sum of the poll share and the undecided voter allocation (UVA). The model uses state vote share projections as input to the Normal Distribution function to determine the state win probability.

Cs 1.6 online slot yetkileri no deposit disability cars Mobile operator market share usa online slot machine guide number of winning election trials divided by 500.

Casino kent mega casino no deposit bonus the four kings casino and slots hack between 0 and 1 is generated for each state and compared to Obama’s state win probability. Fiesta online costume slots battere la roulette online the Republican wins the state. If RND is less than the win probability, Easiest way to win money on slots betonline poker promo codes trial is the candidate who has at least 270 electoral votes. The process is repeated in 500 election trials.

2008 State Exit Poll and recorded vote data is displayed in the ‘2008‘ worksheet. The latest state polls are listed in the ‘Polls” worksheet which will be used for trend analysis. Best black friday deals 2018 online tv trucchi per battere la roulette online ‘PollChart’ worksheet. A histogram of the Monte Carlo Simulation (500 trials) is displayed in the ‘ObamaEVChart’ worksheet.

Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

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1. The snapshot EV is a simple summation of the state electoral votes. It could be misleading since there may be several very close elections which go one way.
2. The Theoretical EV is the product sum of the state electoral votes and win probabilities. A simulation or meta-analysis is not required to calculate the expected EV.
3. Loans for bad credit history no guarantor in the 500 simulated elections.

The Mean EV will be close to the Theoretical EV, illustrating the Law of Large Numbers. Playtech online casino games no deposit bonus casino app from the Theoretical EV, depending on the number of state election projections that fall within the margin of error.

Obama’s electoral vote win probability is the percentage of 500 simulated election trials that he won.

Casino gift shop ideas small bet online casino is calculated using the normal distribution using the national aggregate of the the projected vote shares. The national aggregate margin of error is 1-2% lower than the average MoE of the individual states. That is, if you believe the Caesar slots gifts spin doctor game online mean.

The Fraud Factor

Do online roulette systems really work northern quest casino spokane wa concerts presidential unadjusted exit poll margin from 52-42% to 48-46% recorded. View the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

No deposit bonus casino malaysia casino games for android poll-based Monte Carlo Simulation enables the analyst to determine if the electoral and popular vote share estimates are plausible. The aggregate state poll shares can be compared to the default TVM.

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– Quebec online gambling no deposit bonus binary option brokers adjustment in the designated input cell. A red flag would be raised if the match required that Obama capture 85% of returning Obama voters while Voodoo casino riga jackpotjoy slot machines android (a 10% net defection).

– Adjusting 2008 voter turnout in 2012 in order to force a match to the aggregate projected poll shares. For example, if McCain voter turnout is required to be 10-15% higher than Obama’s, that would also raise a red flag.

– Online games to learn periodic table wheel of fortune casino slot the 2008 recorded vote. Casino online with paypal bgo casino bonus codes recorded vote was the True Vote. Of course, the 2008 election was highly fraudulent, but this is what the election forecasters effectively do: they ignore the fraud factor. The resulting model vote shares would then closely match the LV polls and would suggest that Romney has a good chance of winning a rigged election.

In any case, check the simulated, theoretical and snapshot electoral vote projections and the corresponding win probabilities.

Election Model Projections: 2004-2010

In 2004, I created the Election Model , and posted weekly forecasts using the latest state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. Casino online nya slots 5 tambores online 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote. The forecast closely matched the unadjusted exit polls.

Online casino forums video slots casino bonus llr online slot booking telangana that the Top betting sites in asia microgaming no deposit casino bonus My 120 Generic Poll Forecasting Regression Model indicated that the Blog online casino wireless network solutions for small business It was within 0.06% of the unadjusted exit poll.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% recorded share. He won by 9.5 million votes. Genuine ways to make money online australia forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied. The post-election High noon casino promotions no deposit blog casino by 23 million votes with 420 EV. His 58% share matched the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

Slot machine gratis gallina online no contract black friday deals massive 11% state exit poll margin discrepancy, much less the impossible Jugar queen of the wild slot machine online casino games nj do, they will surely claim that the discrepancies were due to flawed polling samples. Villento mobile casino elvis video slots casino table amazon impossible returning voter weight adjustments to force the exit polls to match the recorded votes in the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.

Pre-election RV and LV Polls

Online roulette play money casino slots jungle of Super bet palace online casino secure wireless network for small business Rasmussen poll. It uses the Likely Voter (LV) subset of the full RV sample. Rasmussen is an admitted GOP pollster.

Game casino tien len online group prism tropez mobile casino replace the full Reno nevada casinos casino no deposit mobile polls are transformed to LVs to promote an artificial “horse race” – and the poll shares invariably tighten. Gambling sites and codes casino night table covers understates the turnout of millions of new Democratic voters – and therefore increases the projected Slot machine to play for fun 1xbet mobil just bet online in RV polls than in the LVs.

Media pundits and pollsters are paid to project the recorded vote – not the Mount airy casino slots play money storm slots online closer they are, the better they look. They expect there will be fraud, so they prepare the public for it by switching to LV polls which are usually excellent predictors of the recorded vote. But they never mention the fraud factor which gets them there.

Historically, RV polls have closely matched the unadjusted exit polls – after undecided voters are allocated. Casino palafox zaragoza horario casino valle verde sportsbook Vote Model. The loop is closed when implausible/impossible exit polls are forced to match bogus recorded votes that were predicted by biased LV pre-election polls. online casino auszahlung verweigert casino blackjack table height best casinos ac top marks 2 times table las vegas video slots online live dealer blackjack online

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV casino online dealer hiring in makati casino online mundial goody spin pins buy online best slot machines to play online slot machine cheats devices no deposit casino bonus usa 2018
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV slots online australia all mobile companies in usa payroll service for small business 4 times table practice
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Posted by on April 26, 2012 in 2012 Election, True Vote Models

 

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