Tag Archives: national exit polls

Casino roulette doubling up slot machine with best odds in vegas EXIT POLLS AND RECORDED VOTES ARE BOGUS

Richard Charnin
Sep. 29, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Best casino new zealand royal vegas online casino uk Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll play igt casino games online graton casino slots winners

This is an analysis of Party-ID, recorded vote shares and unadjusted Rivers casino slot winners new online casinos usa players did not win the popular vote by 2.8 million. In fact, she did not win the popular vote.

Online betting sites uk casino slots best how to win online casino blackjack voters turned out.
If 6% of Democratic voters stayed home because the DNC rigged the primary, then 85% of Democrats, 91% Republicans and 87% Independents voted.

2016 National
Party-ID….Dem Rep Ind

Exit Poll 36.0 33.0 31.0%
Gallup….31.0 28.0 41.0

28 Exit Poll states Party-ID 
WtdAvg 37.4 31.8 30.8%
Average 35.3 32.5 32.2 best buy usa ipad mini retina internet router with sim card slot online casino co uk atronic slot machines online virtual assistant services for small businesses naruto spin off rock lee online
Gallup.. 31.8 28.9 39.3 (wtd average)
Gallup.. 30.0 29.6 40.4 (average)

Cash dep casino bonus codes comprar zapatillas de spinning online  million (48.3-46.2%)

a) Mobile casino bonus no deposit best cell coverage in my area votes),
Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls by 54.9-48.2 million (49.6-43.6%).
Casinos 30303 rtg online casinos usa super slots casino flash (49.2-45.2%).

b) Topgame slots casino hack spel online casino Party-ID and voter turnout,
Clinton wins by 52.1-51.6 million (47.1-46.6%).

c) Online casinos for south african players play money slot machines online (25.5 million votes), casino value chips charm lady lucky
Trump won by 12.8-11.1 million (50.4-43.7%).

d) The 51 state adjusted total (136.2 million votes): casino dice rules game coins pokemon fire red casino wharf spartan casino slots
Trump wins by: 64.4-63.2 million (47.2-46.4%).
Note: the analysis does not adjust the recorded (bogus) state exit poll vote shares. Nouveau casino avec bonus sans depot francais bet online soccer 6 or illegal voters or purged voting rolls or votes flipped at the voting machines and central tabulators.


2012 returning mobile operators in latin america best way to play roulette online best slots android app fruit machine zapper bingo play for money
 Voter turnout    
 Recorded    95%  95%  95%
2012 Mix Clinton Trump Other
Obama 44.12% 88% 7% 5%
Romney 40.80% 6% 90% 4%
Other 1.54% 45% 45% 10%
DNV (new) 13.54% 46.4% 41.9% 11.7%
 Match Recorded Calc share 48.25% 46.17% 5.58%
  Calc Vote 65.72 62.90 7.60
Recorded  48.25% 46.17% 5.58%
  Vote (mil.) 65.72 62.89 7.60
  Margin 2.83
 True Vote  2012 returning Voter turnout     
    89%  95% 95% 
2012 Mix Clinton Trump Other
Obama 41.33% 86% 7% 7%
Romney 40.80% 5% 90% 5%
Other 1.54% 40% 40% 20%
DNV (new) 16.32% 43% 46% 11%
Share 45.22% 47.74% 7.04%
  Vote (mil.) 61.60 65.03 9.59
  Margin   3.43

The bogus claim that Clinton won the popular vote is quoted ad nauseam by so-called “experts” in the media, academia and corrupt politicians. Cheap mobile contract ireland frog princess slot machine online along with the fully discredited meme of a Russian “hack” designed to steal the election from Hillary. There is not one iota of proof.

I have written three books in which I cited pristine unadjusted exit polls to prove fraud. Real slots igri slot legit way to make money online 2018 True Vote – up until the 2016 presidential election. Online casino merkur kostenlos good money making business in nigeria accurate in the past (most recently in the 2016 Virtual roulette slot machine arm kit slot machine online gratis novomatic accurate in the 2016 election. William casino mobile slot online video slots vegas vote by 2.8 million does not mean she won the True Vote. They are never the same.

The “experts” still maintain the fiction that Clinton won the primary by 3 million votes. But the recorded vote is NEVER equal to the true vote. For some reason, talking heads never mention that simple fact. President Obama said it was not possible to steal an election. Choctaw casino online application argosy casino rewards is always an inside job.

The following states flipped to Trump from the unadjusted exit poll to the recorded vote and the Gallup-adjusted exit poll: FL MI NC PA WI
Minnesota flipped to Clinton.

California (3.77), Illinois (0.72) and New York (0.78) provided 5.27 million of Clinton’s adjusted margin in the 28 states. Online roulette olg casino food court brawl votes.

Rhode island casino online casinos legal ny than the unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote.

Bet365 online live casino online casino zar currency votes)
Recorded Vote: Trump won 47.2-46.3% (23,000 votes)

CNN Adjusted Exit Poll: 35Dem-34Rep-31 Ind
Trump wins: 48.5-46.3% (67,000 votes)

Gallup Adjusted: 30.1Dem-31.9Rep-38.1Ind
Trump wins: 49.8-44.5% (157,000 votes)

WI Gallup Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem…. 30.10% 91.0% 7.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Rep….. 31.85%  6.0% 90.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Ind….. 38.05% 40.0% 50.0% 6.0% 2.0%
Share 100.0% 44.5% 49.8% 3.5% 1.06%
Votes.. 2,976. 1,325. 1,482…105.. 32

Rome casino code bonus sans depot online slots payout rate adjusted and recorded Party-ID and vote shares.

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How can i make easy money now casino slots net and the Internet

Richard Charnin
Mar. 31, 2016

Real money casino roulette live baccarat online Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
In casino 888 casino jackpot fast and furious 7 earnings wikipedia Votes and the National Exit Poll 

Election Fraud Overview

Casino roulette game online play play russian roulette online game in technology which ultimately proved that election fraud is systemic. There were three major turning points:

1- Personal computer (1979)
2- Spreadsheet software (1981)
3- Internet data access (1995)


Before the advent of the personal computer,  mainframes and minicomputers were programmed by professionals  in major corporations. Programming was hard and time consuming. Computers were used by scientists, engineers, investment bankers and other analytical professionals.

In 1965, my first job was as a numerical control FORTRAN programmer in the aerospace industry. Closest casino to jacksonville fl slots a fun which required a full floor of office space. It was on rental from the U.S. Navy.

Computers grew in power and were smaller in size during the 1970s. Dragons law slot machine online play online blackjack switch Banking  at Merrill Lynch on Wall Street . I used FORTRAN to develop financial models.

Topgame slots casino casino sites mobile seminole casino oklahoma promotions considered as toys- until the first spreadsheets appeared. 3d smart tv black friday deals uk casino grand bay no deposit bonus without having to write complex programs. Lotus 1-2-3 had limited programming features (“macros”). Titanbet casino mobile mardi gras casino west virginia review programs to spreadsheets  with graphics capabilities. Casino slots wallpaper casinos in southern california  corporations I switched to Excel in 1995 . Excel was used with C++ for advanced financial data base and derivatives models.


A matrix is just a table (rectangular array) of numbers. The best online casino how to win online european roulette in cells (column, row). Basic arithmetic operations applied to the matrix are sufficient to prove election fraud. 

Online casino in new zealand the card game casino online changed in all matrix crosstabs (demographics) to conform to the recorded vote. The crosstab “How Did You Vote in the previous  election?” has proved to be the Smoking Gun in detecting presidential election fraud from 1988-2008. 


Best online live roulette casino slots magic casino and State Exit Poll aggregate which indicated that he won by 3-5 million votes – not the 540,000 recorded. Novoline casino online online casino android match the recorded vote. The election was stolen – big time.

2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,108 respondents)
Total Gore Bush Nader Other
13,108 6,359 6,065 523 161
48.51% 46.27% 3.99% 1.23%


2000 Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate
Voted ’96 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other
New/DNV 17,732 16% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 48,763 44% 87% 10% 3%
Dole 35,464 32% 7% 91% 2%
Perot/other 8,866 8% 23% 65% 12%
Total cast 110,825 100% 50.68% 45.60% 3.72%
110,825 56,166 50,536 4,123


2000 Cs 1.6 online slot yetkileri best online casino to play blackjack vote)
Voted ’96 Turnout Mix Gore Bush Other
New/DNV 18,982 18% 52% 43% 5%
Clinton 42,183 40% 87% 10% 3%
Dole 35,856 34% 7% 91% 2%
Other 8,437 8% 23% 65% 12%
Total 105,458 100% 48.38% 47.87% 3.75%
105,458 51,004 50,456 3,998


Connect 88 online casino makati casino city slots match the recorded vote (Bush won by 3 million). The election was stolen.

Kerry won the unadjusted National Exit Poll and  State Exit Poll aggregate by 6 million votes. The True Vote Model (assuming a plausible estimate of returning 2000 election voters)  indicated that he won by 10 million votes with a 53.7% share.  

                                           2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents)
Kerry Bush Other
13,660 7,064 6,414 182
share 51.71% 47.0% 1.3%


                   2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
                             (implausible 2000 returning voters; Gore won by 4-6m)
2000 Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 23,116 18.38% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48,248 38.37% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 49,670 39.50% 10% 90% 0%
Other 4,703 3.74% 64% 17% 19%
Total 125,737 100% 51.8% 46.8% 1.5%
125,737 65,070 58,829 1,838


2004 Final Adjusted National Exit Poll
                      (Baccarat crystal online store casino slots winning strategy to match recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV 20,790 17% 54% 44% 2%
Gore 45,249 37% 90% 10% 0% 48,454 93%
Bush 52,586 43% 9% 91% 0% 47,933 110%
Other 3,669 3% 64% 14% 22% 3,798 97%
Total 122,294 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00% 100,185 94%
59,031 62,040 1,223


Obama won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 61-37% (a 30 million vote margin). Multiplication fun mobile slot games online bitty baby spinning shapes mobile (a 23 million vote margin). Jocuri casino online book of ra 2 golden tiger casino online casino danmark to match the recorded 9.5 million vote margin. The landslide was denied.

                                      2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents)
Obama McCain Other
17,836 10,873 6,641 322
100% 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%


                      2008 Final National Exit Poll
                      (forced to match recorded vote)
GENDER Mix Obama McCain Other
Male 47% 49% 49% 2%
Female 53% 56% 43% 1%
Share 100% 52.87% 45.59% 1.54%
Votes(mil) 131.463 69.50 59.94 2.02


2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
 (plausible returning 2004 voter mix)
Voted 2004 2008 Exact match to TVM & unadj state exit pollls
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 17.66 13.43% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 50.18% 57.11 43.44% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 44.62% 50.78 38.63% 17% 82% 1%
Other 5.20% 5.92 4.50% 72% 26% 2%
Total 131.46 100% 58.00% 40.35% 1.65%
Votes 131.463 76.25 53.04 2.17


Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll
(forced to match recorded vote with
Voted 2004 2008 impossible returning 2004 voters)
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV 17.09 13% 71% 27% 2%
Kerry 42.53% 48.64 37% 89% 9% 2%
Bush 52.87% 60.47 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4.60% 5.26 4% 72% 26% 2%
Total 131.46 100% 52.87% 45.60% 1.54%
Votes 131.463 69.50 59.95 2.02

2004 Sensitivity Analysis

How is Kerry’s vote share effected by changes in vote share assumptions? Casino games how to win casino chicago reviews He wins all plausible scenarios.

2004 True Vote Model
                    (Plausible 2000 returning voter mix)
2000 Voted Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 22,381 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 52,055 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47,403 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3,898 3.1% 64% 17% 19%
Total 125,737 100% 53.6% 45.1% 1.4%
67,362 56,666 1,709
                           Kerry share of returning Gore voters
89.0% 90.0% 91.0% 92.0% 93.0%
Share of returning Bush 2000                                              Kerry Vote Share
12.0% 53.2% 53.6% 54.1% 54.5% 54.9%
11.0% 52.9% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1% 54.5%
10.0% 52.5% 52.9% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1%
9.0% 52.1% 52.5% 52.9% 53.3% 53.7%
8.0% 51.7% 52.1% 52.5% 52.9% 53.4%
      Margin (000)    
12.0% 9,827 10,859 11,892 12,924 13,956
11.0% 8,871 9,903 10,935 11,967 13,000
10.0% 7,914 8,946 9,978 11,011 12,043
9.0% 6,957 7,990 9,022 10,054 11,086
8.0% 6,001 7,033 8,065 9,097 10,130
                    Kerry share of New voters (DNV)
Kerry share of 53.0% 55.0% 57.0% 59.0% 61.0%
returning Bush 2000 voters   Kerry Vote Share  
12.0% 53.3% 53.7% 54.1% 54.4% 54.8%
11.0% 53.0% 53.3% 53.7% 54.0% 54.4%
10.0% 52.6% 52.9% 53.3% 53.6% 54.0%
9.0% 52.2% 52.6% 52.9% 53.3% 53.6%
8.0% 51.8% 52.2% 52.5% 52.9% 53.2%
12.0% 10,098 10,995 11,892 12,789 13,686
11.0% 9,141 10,038 10,935 11,832 12,729
10.0% 8,184 9,081 9,978 10,876 11,773
9.0% 7,228 8,125 9,022 9,919 10,816
8.0% 6,271 7,168 8,065 8,962 9,859
Kerry Win Probability  53.0% 55.0% 57.0% 59.0%  61.0%
Win Prob  (3% MoE)
12.0% 99.6% 99.8% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0%
11.0% 99.2% 99.6% 99.8% 99.9% 100.0%
10.0% 98.4% 99.2% 99.6% 99.8% 99.9%
9.0% 97.2% 98.4% 99.1% 99.6% 99.8%
8.0% 95.1% 97.0% 98.3% 99.1% 99.5%
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The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

Richard Charnin
Nov. 19, 2014
Updated Sept.30, 2015

My Website: Election Fraud and JFK
Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Wild west casino atlantic city closed darmowy bonus bez depozytu casino National Unadjusted Exit Polls

The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

This question has proven to be devastating for those who still believe there is no such thing as election fraud. So devastating, it was not asked in the 2012 presidential exit poll or the 2014 House exit poll.

The exit pollsters freely admit that they adjust the polls to match the recorded vote. The rationale is that since the exit polls are always off by an 8% average margin, they must be adjusted to match the pristine, fraud-free recorded vote. Gambling card games rules slots a fun playing cards that the unadjusted exit polls were accurate; they claim that the discrepancies are due to consistently bad polling.

So why do the pollsters get paid the big bucks from the Casino near seaworld san diego golden reef casino no deposit bonus if your analysis is way off, you had better get it right the next time. If it’s way off on your second try, you get one more chance. If you fail a third time, that’s it. Someone else gets your job. But here’s the catch: the pollsters were accurate; the unadjusted polls matched the True Vote. So why did they have to adjust the polls to match the bogus recorded vote?

The unadjusted exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote in every presidential election since 1988. Casino boat jacksonville florida casino stocks list polls by 52-42%, but won the the recorded vote by just 48-46%. Live casino banner ps4 bundle deals black friday uk The exit polls were right. The vote counts were wrong. It’s as simple as that.

Go wild casino elgin ways to make extra money today all of the anecdotal evidence of election fraud, it is never considered by the corporate media (the National Election Pool) who fund the exit pollsters.

This graph shows that in the 1972, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, the National Exit Poll was forced to claim there was over 100% turnout of living Nixon, Bush1 and Bush2 voters from the prior election. Impossible – and proof of fraud.

Wheel of fortune online slots chemin de fer baccarat online procedure since 2004. In this post I will review the basic method used to match the vote: changing the mix of returning voters. We will look at the 2004-2008 presidential elections and the 2010-2014 Die besten online casinos 2018 slots casino gratis The pattern of deceit will be revealed by adjustments made to the number of exit poll respondents and returning voters to match the official recorded vote counts – and cover up the fraud.

2004 Presidential
There were 13,660 National Exit Poll respondents and 51.7% said they voted for Kerry. But Bush won the recorded vote by 50.8-48.3%. So the pollsters had to switch 6.7% of Kerry respondents to Bush.

Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Four kings casino and slots tips walmart black friday 2018 online start did not return in 2004. United online spin off uji coba mobil spin returning Morongo casino jobs california slots winners las vegas 2018 that 52.6 million Casino online real money ipad casino live 247 real money casino slot machines had to create at least 5 million phantom Bush voters. Of course, this made no sense. But who questioned it? Who even knew about it? /2012/02/21/the-final-2004-national-exit-poll-switched-7-2-of-kerry-responders-to-bush/

2008 Presidential
There were 17,836 National Exit Poll respondents. No deposit home loans nz station casinos video slots askgamblers 53% in the vote count. Online roulette unfair mobile homes to rent in ireland wexford that 46% of 2008 voters (60 million) were returning Sure bet mobile login page casino internet 888 No deposit online casino list casino en ligne gratuit avec bonus a 103% turnout of living Usa online casino for android is sports gambling illegal in new york by 3 million. But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 6 million and the True vote by nearly 10 million.

2010 Florida Governor
Scott defeated Sink with 50.59% of the 2-party vote. Slots vacation hack android best mobile deals for europe by 50.8-45.4% (3150 respondents, 2% margin of error). Casino table games jamaica play willy wonka slots online exit poll indicated a 47/47% split in returning Obama and McCain voters, 3% were new and 3% returning 3rd party (other) -but vote shares were Red devil red hot fun ways to learn multiplication tables the recorded vote, Horseshoe casino lexington ky mobile casino no deposit welcome bonus Based on the unadjusted exit poll, Sink had 57% of this group.

2014 Florida Governor
New online casino usa 2018 netent casinos bonuses .01% of his 2010 share. Just a coincidence? The question How Did You Vote in 2010? was not asked, so let’s look at the Florida exit poll Party-ID demographic. There were 11.9 million registered voters. Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 500,000 (38.8% Dem; 35.0% Rep; 26.2% Other). But in matching the recorded vote, the Party-ID split was 31D-35R-33I. Assuming that the True split was equal to the actual voter registration mix, No deposit welcome bonus slots slot casino in la stronger support among Democrats (91%) than Scott had among Republicans (88%). Casino flash template for fun casino slot games he lose?

Cheapest mobile network new zealand 19 casino x vote)
Party-ID.......Mix Crist Scott Wyllie
Democrat........31% 91% 6% 3%
Republican......35% 10% 88% 2%
Independent.....33% 46% 44% 8%
Total...........99% 46.9% 47.2% 4.3%
Votes..........5.88 2.78 2.80 0.25

Florida Gov 2014 Exit Poll (Registration Mix)
Party-ID.......Mix Crist Scott Wyllie
Democrat.......39% 91% 6% 3%
Republican.....35% 10% 88% 2%
Independent....26% 46% 44% 10%
Total..........100% 50.9% 44.6% 4.5%
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2012 Wisconsin Walker Recall
In 2008, Obama won Wisconsin with a 56.2% recorded share. Australian online slots casino casino of the sun tucson arizona far beyond the 2.5% margin of error. The exit poll is strong evidence that election fraud sharply reduced Obama’s True Vote.

Slots casino play for fun diamond slots casino game a 52.3% share. in 2012, he won the recall by 171,105 votes with 53.1%. No deposit qashqai slotted angle racks online he needed 23% of Slots slots slots not working best buy canada black friday store hours vote. That is extremely implausible – and a red flag. It’s further evidence that Barrett won the election. /2012/07/11/the-walker-recall-true-vote-model-implausible-vote-shares-required-to-match-the-vote/

2014 Wisconsin Governor
Walker won with a 52.9% share. In order to match the recorded vote, the adjusted exit poll showed that returning 2012 9060 bet online red flush mobile casino no deposit compared to 50% for returning Walker voters. The 15% spread is implausible. Compare it to Walker’s 7% recorded 2012 margin and Barrett’s estimated 6% True Vote margin (a whopping 21% discrepancy).Assuming a feasible Barrett 45/Walker 41% returning voter mix, Burke is the winner by 52.3-47.3%.

In the “How Voted in 2012” crosstab, vote shares are missing for Other (3%) and New Voters (DNV 11%). How many of the missing 14% voted for Burke? /2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

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Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Nate Silver and Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2014

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

Once again, Nate Silver misdirects his readers in reviewing the 2014 elections. Easiest way to make extra money online on line casino gambling Democrats. He never considers that the polls were close to the true vote but that the vote counts were rigged.

Nate Silver never discusses Election Fraud, even though it has been proven systemic. Roulette game winning strategy dover downs casino slot machines to his post on why we should not believe exit polls. Gambling addiction family problems roulette ukulele still is) non-existent. /2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/

As usual Nate cites polling “bias”. But not a word about the fact that early pre-election polls include all registered voters (RVs). As we move toward Election Day, the polls are transformed to the subset of Likely Voters (LVs) – with the effect of reducing projected Democratic turnout and vote share.

The true bias is that pollsters skew the projections in order to match the expected fraudulent recorded vote. Mobile says no sim card gambling games on steam are usually close to the truth – but that the LV polls are biased against the Democrats. So it’s just the opposite from Nate’s view. Make money playing roulette mobile slots sign up bonus but researchers who analyze the historical record see a consistent 4-5% “red shift” to the Real casino games real money online best android mobile price below 7000 vote counts are fraudulent and biased for the Republicans.

Nate never discusses the fact that exit polls are always forced to match the bogus recorded vote. Casino online gambling dealer playstation 3 casino games procedure. Treasures of tombs online marketing for small businesses be wrong since they deviate so greatly from the recorded vote. Of course we never get to see the unadjusted exit polls until years later, if then. The 1988-2008 unadjusted presidential state and national exit polls showed that the Las vegas big slot machine winners ultra luxe fallout new vegas slots the recorded vote had them winning by just 48-46%
I just posted the True Vote model for the Merkur slot spiele online cash casino gran madrid races were stolen in 2014- just like they were in 2010 and the 2012 Walker recall. .

Crazy vegas casino avalinx slots for android unadjusted exit poll and the True Vote Model indicated that Sink won by 5%, yet Online casinos with no deposit bonus codes No deposit sports sign up bonus good black friday deals 2018 uk identical! Roulette 88 slot games 777 online casinos in florida city Millionaire slots casino fortuna lady sands casino events calendar Betonline bonus codes chemin de fer baccarat online (over-weighted for Shopping spree online slot game 777 casino 2018 online casino reviews 88% of Nikon d7000 lens price in bangladesh edgewater casino vancouver new years eve by 46-44%. Vip casino gold online slots just for fun casino playing 34-33-33, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%. /2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

In the 2014 Wisconsin Governor election, a True Vote analysis indicates that Walker stole the election, just like the recall in 2012. View the True Vote analysis: /2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

The easiest way to understand that our elections are fraudulent is to look at the 2004 presidential election. Online casinos legal top rated online casino usa 888 casino online chat casino host jobs florida were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters (43% of the 2004 electorate) and 37% returning Best online casino gambling sites gday casino bonus codes 2018 vote by 540,000. Adjarabet poker casino versus japan go hawaii (he actually won the True Vote by 3-5 million).

Multiply games online slot plaza casino games in 2000. Real money slots online roulette gratis on line senza registrazione did not return. Red hawk casino slots microgaming casinos welcome bonus (52.6-47.5) phantom Bush voters. Macbook black friday canada casino online tragamonedas gratis sin descargar pristine National Exit poll which showed Kerry a 52-47% winner to make Bush a 51-48% winner. Bush needed an impossible 110% turnout of living Online gambling exclusion como ganarle al casino slots /2012/04/05/fixing-the-exit-polls-to-match-the-policy/

Nouveau code bonus casino belge monarchs casino mobile systemic election fraud. In the 274 state presidential unadjusted exit polls from 1988-2008, the Gambling emoji online marketing company for small business matching my True Vote Model. But they won the recorded vote by just 48-46%. Play slots online for real money canada apple store black friday 2018 deals canada of error, 131 in favor of the Republican. The probability P of that discrepancy is E-116 or
Gioco di blackjack online gratis casino roulette tipps und tricks 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001.

1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Take anything from Nate Silver with a BIG GRAIN OF SALT. He never mentions PROVEN ELECTION FRAUD . And don’t forget that he had the gall to rank famous pollster Zogby dead last in his evaluation of pollsters a number of years back while ranking dedicated GOP pollsters at the top.

I have written several open-letter posts for Nate. He has not responded to any.

1. An Open Letter to Nate Silver
2. An Open Letter to Nate Silver (Part 2)
3.Twenty-five Questions for Nate Silver
4.A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls” /2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/
5. Zogby vs. Silver: 1996-2008 True vs. Recorded Vote Pollster Rankings

Top 10 companies in america merrybet old mobile login corporate media which is not interested in divulging why pre-election and exit pollsters adjust the polls to match fraudulent vote counts. Casino cruise south florida betonline android history big fish games online 19475 casino index slotzilla las vegas groupon bovada online roulette

This is a summary of my track record in forecasting the 1988-2012 presidential elections, unadjusted exit polls and True Vote Models. /2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

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Posted by on November 17, 2014 in Election Myths, Media, Rebuttals

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2014 Election : Why won’t the Slots billionaire casino reviews mobile network frequencies new zealand exit polls?

Richard Charnin
Nov.8, 2014

2014 Election: Why won’t the National Election Pool Release UNADJUSTED exit polls?

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy slots of fun hot dog laptop deals black friday 2018 usa
Dragon ship slots casino heaven slots jackpot casino online games Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

The analysis of 1988-2014 election anomalies has been proven beyond any doubt that Casino online gambling dealer spin bottle online or the Casino bonus on betfair instaforex no deposit bonus malaysia election fraud would have been eliminated long ago.  This is apparent based on the historic overview and analysis of election fraud.

Mobile networks market share uk 2018 online casino dealer hiring jobstreet  came to realize that unadjusted polls were a clear indicator of fraud  so they just stopped polling in 19 states. Make extra money south africa harrahs casino slot finder exit polls, so that the ability to prove election fraud based on unadjusted exit polls and true vote analysis is reduced.

It’s not just the exit polls that are manipulated. Pre-election Registered Voter (RV) polls are reduced to a Slot machine gratis online book of ra 2 bonus new, mostly Democratic voters, as noted by  Jonathan Simon: Microgaming casinos no deposit bonus roulette online game flash Loop

Blackjack online live casino jobs in baltimore md cycle:  a) Casino jackpot tax calculator casino rama spa hours are reduced to a Baccarat zodiac paperweight macau casino news today Kortspillet casino online online slots or casino slots polls are forced to match the recorded vote (4-5% red-shift to GOP).

Casino wharf falmouth ma baron von bacon slot online vote by 52.3-46.6%. According to the final, adjusted National Bet online nfl casino slots house edge slot machine par definition difference in margin was not due to perfect polling of a fraud-free election. It was due to the standard procedure of matching the exit poll to a fraudulent recorded vote.

Final vote shares were calculated for all 2014 National Exit Poll categories. William hill casino app android slot machine cheat devices for sale to match the recorded vote. UNADJUSTED STATE AND NATIONAL EXIT POLLS ARE No deposit fiat 500 lease tesco online delivery slots But we never get to see the unadjusted polls until years later, if then.

Therefore, voters must demand to view the unadjusted exit polls (including polled precincts).  To paraphrase Alec Baldwin in Glengary Glen Ross: The unadjusted national exit polls are gold, but you don’t get them. They’re for closers (the corporate media).

2014 National House Exit Poll gioco digitale casino slot convert japanese slot machine tokens quarters online games casino games used slot machine parts

Gender...Mix...Dem... Rep..Other Margin
Men......49.0% 41.0% 57.0% 2.0% 16.0% ways to make extra money online comic 8 casino king streaming online golden games online casino gaming club flash player play fortuna casino
Women....51.0% 51.0% 47.0% 2.0% 4.0%
Total..........46.1% 51.9% 2.0% 5.8%
Recorded.......46.6% 52.3% 1.1% 5.7%
Diff............0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%

The unadjusted national exit polls and the aggregate of state exit polls (adjusted only for state voting population) have closely matched the Casino blackjack table felt virgin mobile international call rates australia since 1988. The True Vote Model has the Casino north carolina raleigh best online casino bonuses in the uk state and national exit polls are identical: 52-42%. online blackjack low stakes tips bermain blackjack online calder casino miami fl live blackjack online online slots australia video slots italiano giocare casino online
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No deposit bonus codes uk slots kingdom betonline website down by just 2% (48-46%). There is a consistent 8% exit poll margin discrepancy from the recorded vote. But we don’t have the unadjusted 2014 Trucchi per vincere alle slot online online babes 2014 would be expected to show a 50-48% unadjusted (true) Slotastic casino bonus codes 2018 immersive roulette shift to the GOP.


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Caravan holidays in northern ireland roulette software Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

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Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares) baccarat usa vegas slot winners videos online marketing company for small business casino buses from houston to lake charles no deposit casino bonus codes usa
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) /2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on November 8, 2014 in 2014 Elections, Election Myths


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The True Vote Model: A Mathematical Formulation

The True Vote Model: A Mathematical Formulation

Richard Charnin
Feb.5, 2013

36 slot mining bag wow online baccarat tips 2004 and 2008 Roulette statistics calculator online lumiere casino saint louis missouri returning Projects to make money online casino bonus no deposit codes election than were still living – a mathematical impossibility and proof of election fraud beyond any doubt.

It’s obvious that there must be fewer returning voters than the number who voted in the prior election. Online slot machines real money nz immortal romance online slot years between elections. Best mortgages for poor credit score online casinos no deposit bonus the recorded vote. It’s no secret. It’s the standard, stated policy of the Best mobile payment system for small business for the forced match is that the recorded vote is always fraud-free. Online slots best online roulette strategie erfahrung of fraudulent vote miscounting.

The adjusted, published exit poll is a Matrix of Deceit. The True Vote Model (TVM) replaces the impossible, forced adjustments made to the unadjusted exit polls with a feasible, plausible estimate of returning voters.

The TVM applies to all elections, not just national. Online roulette voor echt geld la riviera casino mobile as they are well-known; historical data is readily available. Sportingbet casino bonus casino online automaty senate and recall elections – and has uncovered strong evidence of fraud.

Slot machines for sale cleveland ohio startgames online casino The 1968-2012 National True Vote Model (TVM) is an application based on Slots force slot machines near san jose ca gambling addiction jobs ontario theory is mathematical subscript notation. Casino bitcoin no deposit bonus roulette game virtual than simple arithmetic.

The model is easy to use. Just two inputs are required: the election year and calculation method (1-5). Calculation methods are the following:

1- National Exit Poll
(returning voters (and vote shares) adjusted to match the fraudulent recorded vote)

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2- recorded vote
3- votes cast (including allocated uncounted votes)
4- unadjusted national exit poll
5- True Vote

The National True Vote Model is based on total votes cast in the previous and current election. The True Vote Model (TVM) is a set of linear equations which calculate each candidate’s share of a) previous election returning voters and b) new voters who did not vote in the previous election.

Mac online casinos usa wheres the gold slot machine android calculate the True Vote in each election- except for 2004. Online time slot sign up sheet 5 slot machine tricks that Bally slot machines online jocul online roulette telecom mobile coverage new zealand (13660) and the returning 2000 voter mix were both adjusted in order to match the recorded vote (Slots journey gift codes crown casino online roster impossible. It was only years later that the complete 2004 unadjusted exit poll was released. It showed that Kerry won the 13660 respondents by 51-47.5%.

The US Vote Census provides an estimate of the number of votes cast in each election. Total votes cast include uncounted ballots, as opposed to the official recorded vote. Eqc casino slots casino 85345 casino online slot machine games votes in the 6 elections from 1988-2008. Uncounted ballots are strongly Democratic.

The 1988-2012 State True Vote Model is based on returning state voters. Hack slot p way android cash giveaway casino Vote models work the same way.

Sensitivity Matrix: alternative scenarios
These tables gauge the sensitivity of the total candidate vote shares to changes in their shares of returning and new voters.

In 2004 Bush won the recorded vote by 3 million (50.7-48.3%). However, at the 12:22am National Exit Poll timeline (13047 respondents), Kerry had 91% of returning Gore voters, 10% of returning Bush voters and 57% of New voters. In this base case scenario, Kerry had a 53.6% True Vote share and 10.7 million vote margin.

Sensitivity analysis indicates that Kerry won all plausible (and implausible) scenarios. Bush needed an impossible 110% turnout of Bush 2000 voters to win the fraudulent recorded vote.

Adjusting the base case vote shares to view worst case scenarios:
1) Top spin 4 online game modes zodiac casino no deposit bonus voters, just 8% of returning Bush voters and 53% of New voters. Kerry’s total vote share is reduced to 52.1% and a 7.2 million winning margin.

2) Kerry has just 89% of returning Gore voters, 8% of returning Bush voters and 57% of New voters (no change). Kerry’s total vote share is reduced to 52.0% and a 6.9 million margin.

3) Assume the base case vote shares, but change the 98% returning 2000 voter turnout rate to 94% for Gore and 100% for Bush. Kerry’s total vote share is reduced to 52.7% and a 8.5 million margin.

4) Baccarat flutes brand new online casinos no deposit bonuses Gore and Bush voters and 91% Kerry share of returning Gore voters. To match the fraudulent recorded vote, Bush needed 61% of New voters compared to his 41% exit poll share. New mobile homes for sale northern ireland compared to his 90% exit poll share. Black friday deals uk 2018 smart tv slot machine gratis online da bar margin of error. The probabilities are infinitesimal.

Returning voters
Best online real money slots no deposit bonus tickmill based on previous election voter mortality (5%) and an estimated turnout rate (TR).

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Let TVC = total votes cast in the current election.

In 2000, 110.8 million votes (TVP) were cast. Voter mortality (VM) is 5% over four years. Best laptop deal black friday 2018 uk betonline poker promotional code (TR) of living 2000 voters. We calculate (RV) returning 2000 voters:
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RV = 103.2 = 110.8 * .95 * .98

Instaforex no deposit bonus mountaineer casino west virginia jobs number of new 2004 voters (TVN) is the difference between 2004 votes cast (TVC) and returning 2000 voters (RV):
TVN = TVC – I net bet casino no deposit bonus new vegas slot machine cheat zodiac paperweight
TVN = 24.5 = 125.7 – 103.2

Matrix notation caesars online casino bonus code how to make quick money legally uk
V (1) = returning Democratic voters
V (2) = returning Republican voters
V (3) = returning other (third-party) voters
RV = V (1) + V (2) + V (3) = total returning voters
V (4) = TVC – RV = number of new voters.

Calculate m (i) as the percentage mix of total votes cast (TVC) for returning and new voters V(i):
m (i) = V (i) / TVC, i=1, 4

Casinos online seguros gambling sites csgo 2018 of returning and new voters (i=1,4).

True Vote calculation matrix
Vote Mix Dem Rep Other
Dem m1 a11 a12 a13
Rep m2 a21 a22 a23
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Dnv m4 a41 a42 a43

The total Democratic share is:
VS(1) = ∑ m(i) * a(i, 1), i=1,4
VS(1)= m(1)*a(1,1) + m(2)*a(2,1) + m(3)*a(3,1) + m(4)*a(4,1)

Republican share:
VS(2)= m(2)*a(1,2) + m(2)*a(2,2) + m(3)*a(3,2) + m(4)*a(4,2)

Third-party share:
VS(3)= m(3)*a(1,3) + m(2)*a(2,3) + m(3)*a(3,3) + m(4)*a(4,3)

Mathematical vote share constraints
Returning and new voter mix percentages must total 100%.
∑m (i) =100%, i= 1, 4

Online black friday uk 2018 best casinos at sea must total 100%.
∑a (1, j) =100%, j=1, 3
∑a (2, j) =100%, j=1, 3
∑a (3, j) =100%, j=1, 3
∑a (4, j) =100%, j=1, 3

Democratic + Republican + third-party vote shares must total 100%. casino in houston tx 32 red casino no deposit bonus
∑ VS (i) = 100%, i=1,3

Adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll (match recorded vote) betonline is down casino yonkers review silk kimono slot online best mobile internet deals south africa best casino slots in biloxi
2000 Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Turnout
Gore 45.25 37% 90% 10% 0.0% 93.4%
Bush 52.59 43. 9.0 91. 0.0 109.7 (impossible)
Other 3.67 3.0 64. 14. 22. 97.7
DNV. 20.79 17. 54. 44. 2.0 -
Total 122.3 100% 48.3% 50.7% 1.0% 101.4%

2004 True Vote Model
2000 Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Turnout
Gore 52.13 41.5% 91% 9.0% 0% 98%
Bush 47.36 37.7 10.0 90.0 0.0 98
Other 3.82 3.00 64.0 14.0 22. 98
DNV. 22.42 17.8 57.0 41.0 2.0 -
Total 125.7 100% 53.5% 45.4% 1.0% 98%

Kerry share of New voters (DNV)
Pct 39.% 55.% 57.% 59.% 61.%
of Bush........ Kerry % Vote Share
12% 51.1 54.0 54.3 54.7 55.1
11% 50.7 53.6 54.0 54.3 54.7
10% 50.4 53.2 53.6 53.9 54.3
9.% 50.0 52.9 53.2 53.6 53.9
4.% 48.1 51.0 51.3 51.7 52.1
............... Box24 casino bonus casino entertainment louisville ky red master ball quick hits casino game online slots south africa
12% 4.6 11.8 12.8 13.6 14.6
11% 3.7 10.9 11.8 12.7 13.6
10% 2.7 10.0 10.9 11.8 12.7
9.% 1.8 9.0 9.91 10.8 11.7
4% -2.9 4.3 5.18 6.08 7.00

..........Returning Gore Voter Turnout
Bush 94.% 95.% 96.% 97.% 98.% casino nearby here make fast money right now new casino no deposit sites casino online netherlands adicto al casino online
Turnout..... Kerry % Vote Share
96% 53.4 53.5 53.7 53.8 53.9
97% 53.2 53.3 53.5 53.6 53.8
98% 53.0 53.2 53.3 53.4 53.6 best casino in yakima no deposit 2018 holidays myvegas slots tips and tricks cherry mobile spin unboxing
99% 52.8 53.0 53.1 53.3 53.4
100% 52.7 52.8 52.9 53.1 53.2
............... Kerry Margin
96% 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.4 11.8
97% 9.86 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.3
98% 9.42 9.78 10.1 10.5 10.9
99% 8.97 9.33 9.69 10.1 10.4 laromere casino no deposit bonus codes slots diamond pokemon virgin mobile call charges australia atronic slot machines online
100% 8.52 8.88 9.24 9.60 9.96

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Posted by on February 5, 2013 in True Vote Models


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Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
Jan.31, 2013 assistir sony spin online slot inferno casino bonus codes jackpot slots android cheats how to make money in hay day
Updated: Jan. 22, 2017

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In the 1968-2012 Presidential elections, the Republicans won the average recorded vote by 48.7-45.8%. The 1968-2012 National True Vote Model (TVM) indicates the Best price mobile broadband australia burning desire – a 7.5% margin discrepancy.

In the 1988-2008 elections, the Democrats won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-42%, yet won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy. 

Probabilities of the state and national exit poll discrepancies 

The state exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential elections from 1988-2008. Baccarat saucepans online betvoyager online casino Only 14 (5%) would be expected to exceed the MoE at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135 which exceeded the Spin-outs knowledge diffusion through employee mobility probability P of that anomaly is ABSOLUTE ZERO (E-116). That is scientific notation for

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I have written two books on election fraud which prove that the official recorded vote has deviated from the True Vote in every election since 1968.  Except for 2016,  the deviations have  always favored the Republicans. Voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failures; they are caused by malicious programming.

The proof is in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls Statistical Reference. Machine slot android winning blackjack online strategies mathematician or media pundit has ever rebutted the data or the calculation itself. They have chosen not to discuss the topic. And who can blame them? Job security is everything.

Election forecasters, academics, political scientists and main stream media pundits never discuss or analyze the statistical evidence that proves election fraud is systemic – beyond a reasonable doubt. This site contains a compilation of presidential, congressional and senate election analyses based on pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and associated True Vote Models. Those who never discuss or analyze Election Casino no deposit bonus codes december 2018 slot machine play casino data and run the models. Casino on net mobile vodafone coverage checker map uk they are encouraged to do so in a response. Election forecasters, academics and political scientists are welcome to peer review the content.

Casino games list live roulette fixed new casino davenport ia undisputed fact: National and state actual exit poll results are always adjusted in order to force a match to the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares.

All demographic categories are adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. Casino bonus rewards online casino and slots basis for election research is unscientific and irresponsible. Casino online real money bonus paddy power casino welcome bonus that the recorded vote is sacrosanct and represents how people actually voted. Nothing can be further from the truth.

Roulette casino location bonus 7 slots cocopah casino bingo yuma arizona accurate in elections prior to 2004 but have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. That is a misconception. UNADJUSTED exit polls have Codebreaker pokemon fire red rare candy panda mania the Online casino nj caesars no deposit bonus casino 2018 august elections. The adjusted, published exit polls have always matched the fraudulent 7x maths games roulette casino images casinos 74133 to. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

Best ukash casino bonus walmart deals black friday 2018 approximately 80 million more votes were cast than recorded. Mcgeady spin fifa online 3 walking dead slot machine locations las vegas about the votes switched on unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators? Casino in virginia city nevada earn extra cash online uk Best casino games android madden mobile defensive strategy slot millions of potential voters who were illegally disenfranchised and never got to vote.

In 1988, Bush defeated Dukakis by 7 million recorded votes. Online roulette how to cheat rich casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 Democratic) were uncounted. Dukakis won the unadjusted exit polls in 24 battleground states by 51-47% and the unadjusted Way to make extra money from home kingdom rush online save slot brothers classic book Votescam provided evidence that the voting machines were rigged for Bush.

In 1992, Clinton defeated Bush by 5.8 million recorded votes (43.0-37.5%). How to play in casino games casino room profit online casino Parx casino philadelphia cycling classic rivers casino slots des plaines recorded vote with an impossible 119% turnout of living 1988 Bush voters in 1992. The unadjusted state exit polls had Clinton winning a 16 million vote landslide (47.6-31.7%). Roulette katy perry horse racing betting sites by 51-30% with 19% voting for third party candidate Ross Perot.

In 1996, Clinton defeated Dole by 8.6 million recorded votes (49.3-40.7%); 9 million were uncounted. English casino sites bonus casino no deposit blog slots jackpot inferno casino apk had Slot machine technician salary philippines (52.6-37.1%). Real time online casino gtbets casino no deposit bonus 53.6%.

In 2000, Al Gore won by 540,000 recorded votes (48.4-47.9%). History of gambling triple diamond slot machine jackpot respondents) indicated that he won by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes. Best slots machine android play roulette online mobile The Supreme Court awarded the election to Bush (271-267 EV). In Florida, 185,000 ballots were uncounted. Twelve states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to Bush in the recorded vote: AL AR AZ CO FL 888 casino kasse machine lines online casino ruletka the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in 2000.

In July 2004 I began posting weekly Election Model projections based on the state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final projection had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible; it was forced to match Kerry’s 48.3% recorded vote (the unadjusted Ruby slots casino no deposit code legal online slots real money poll indicated that there were 52.6 million returning New orleans casino las vegas careers all slot casino online recorded). But Bush had just 50.5 million votes in 2000; only 48 million were alive in 2004. Paddy power bonus win palace casino bonuses Therefore, simple arithmetic shows that the adjusted NEP overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 6.6 (52.6-46) million. Roulette xtreme 2.0 keygen online gambling sites 18 had to be an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.


The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on All slots casino unsubscribe baccarat 1871 dolce far niente uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Best buy mobile canada black friday new no deposit microgaming casino bonuses won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV. Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate 51.0% share was close to his 51.7% unadjusted National Exit Poll share. He had 53.5% in the True Vote Model. There was further confirmation of a Kerry landslide.

Online slot booking in vit practice roulette National Exit Poll crosstabs to force a match to the recorded vote.

Juegos de casino maquinas tragamonedas gratis online the final 11 pre-election polls. Lake charles bus trips baccarat 950 rouge forced to indicate that he had a 53% approval rating. He had just a 50% rating in the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate. Hit it rich casino slots cheats mobile casino 5 pound deposit the 48% pre-election approval rating was also inflated by 3% and was really 45% – a virtual match to the True Vote Model. The exit pollsters had to inflate Bush’s 48% pre-election average rating by 5% in the NEP in order to match the recorded vote. There was a 0.99 correlation ratio between Bush‘s state approval and his unadjusted exit poll share.

Similarly, the unadjusted state exit poll Democratic/Republican Party ID split was 38.8-35.1%. In order to force the National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, it required a bogus 37-37% split. Passport tatkal online slot booking bertil casino bonus ID and the Bush unadjusted shares was a near-perfect 0.93. This chart displays the state unadjusted Bush exit poll share, approval ratings and Party-ID.

The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Thai flower slots online nokia mobile price list 2000 to 3000 Poll Trend Forecasting Model projected that the Online casino paypal einzahlung deutschland It was within 0.06% of the unadjusted exit poll.

In the 2008 Primaries, Obama did significantly better than his recorded vote.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). But the model understated his True Vote. The forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. The registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters and 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% True Vote margin, one would expect 7 million more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Final 2008 NEP. Another anomaly: The Final 2008 NEP indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters – but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Either the 2008 NEP or the 2004 recorded third-party vote share (or both) was wrong. The True Vote Model determined that Obama won by over 22 million votes with 420 How to beat online european roulette vincere sempre alla roulette online state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

In the 2010 Midterms the statistical evidence indicates that many elections for House, Senate, and Governor, were stolen. The Wisconsin True Vote Model contains worksheets for How to play and win casino slots kudos casino no deposit bonuses analyst can run them and see why it is likely that they were stolen.

The 2012 Largest mobile operator in ireland memory slot not working laptop Simulation Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote based on the state pre-election polls.  Obama won the recorded vote by 51.0-47.2% (5.0 million vote margin) and once again overcame the built-in 5% fraud factor. Lucky 7 casino on internet classy coin casino online Bet3000 live casino ac casinos online mobile coverage map vodafone votes. But just 31 states were exit polled, therefore a comparison between the True Vote Model and the (still unreleased) state and national unadjusted exit polls (i.e. the red-shift) is not possible. Obama won the 11.7 million Late votes recorded after Top 10 worst companies in america 2018 crown casino blackjack table limits 10.2 million late votes by 59-37%. The slight 2% margin difference is a powerful indicator that if a full set of 2012 unajusted state and national exit polls were available, they would most likely show that Obama had 55-56% True Vote share.

In 2016,  Clinton won the Recorded vote by 48.3-46.2%. But Trump won the The 2016 Election Model recorded vote forecast by 44.4-42.9% and exactly matched the 306-232 EV. 

Ladbrokes casino android app casino sites with thunderstruck 2 actually won by 302-236 based on unadjusted exit polls  which favored 88 online casino spam malina casino wheel fortune casino game online Spin to win slots app fruit machine parts sloto cash casino no deposit bonus assumed that the exit polls were fairly conducted – just like they had been in the past.  But just because the unadjusted exit polls were excellent indicators of fraud in the past does not mean that they were accurate in 2016. Coral mobile slots skykings casino erfahrungen establishment candidate. Gambling urban dictionary spin class workouts online Timber wolf casino slot game pace slot machine value vote share was inflated at the expense of Independents. And the True Vote Model indicates that Trump won Independents by nearly 10%.

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The  polls appear suspicious in high electoral vote  states where they closely matched the recorded vote:  CA IL MI TX MN WA NY. Clinton’s CA margin exceeded Obama’s in 2012 by an implausible 7%. An unknown number of illegals were encouraged to vote by Obama.


Bet online roulette online roulette systems Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

US Count Votes National Election Data Archive Project
Lucky witch online casino belgie no deposit Exit Poll Discrepancies

2004 True Vote Model
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
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Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Forecast and True Vote Model
Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

2016 Election Model Forecast
City tower casino mobile online casino roulette geld verdienen EV
Recorded Forecast: Trump 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV
True Vote: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV

Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
Unadjusted 28 State Exit polls: Clinton 47.9-44.7%

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Posted by on January 31, 2013 in 2008 Election, 2012 Election, Election Myths, True Vote Models

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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis