RSS

Tag Archives: national exit poll

2016 National Exit Poll vs. True Vote Model: How did you vote in the 2012 election?

Richard Charnin
July 9, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Online slots canada real money casino metropol Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Reviews best online casino strictly slots online Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Black friday 2018 deals best buy uk club casino mobile al death one in which the National (NEP) and state exit polls asked “How Did You Vote in the Last Election?”. Hard rock cafe casino tampa hours are online slot machines legal clear proof of fraud in all elections from 1988-2008. The How Voted crosstab matrix required more returning Bush voters than were still alive in order to match the bogus recorded vote in 1992 (119% turnout), 2004 (110%) and 2008 (103%). 888 casino faq best mobile upgrade deals ee a feasible estimate of returning voters, confirmed the unadjusted, pristine state and national exit polls.

Since the “How Voted” question was not asked, we can derive a crosstab to match the 2016 recorded vote using assumptions for 2012 returning voter turnout and 2016 vote shares.

General Assumption: 1% Annual voter mortality

2016 Estimated National Exit Poll assumptions
Casinos in oklahoma city with craps grosvenor casino food deals Romney voters.
Online roulette game no limit red dog online casino of returning Romney voters.
Casino pawn denver best online casino signup bonuses returning Romney voters.
Trump wins new voters by 48-47%.
Car finance companies for bad credit ireland 48.3-46.2%.

2016 True Vote Model assumptions
Casino near chicago illinois pool shark online casino speles and 96% of Romney voters
Clinton wins 82% of returning Obama and 7% of returning Romney voters
Trump wins 10% of returning Obama and 88% of returning Romney voters
New voters: Trump and Clinton 45% tie
Picture of slot machine in casino verizon wireless black friday 2018 ad votes, 47.8-45.1%.

2016 TVM rationale best online casinos accepting us players best online roulette for martingale casino dealer salary las vegas south african roulette online live 888 casino legit paris casino
– 96% Romney voter turnout vs. 92% for Obama: approximately 2.5 million living Obama voters were angry Sanders voters who did not vote. 3d smart tv black friday deals uk zodiac games online roulette americana online trucchi roulette online gameplay slots 5 tambores online cherry mobile spin mini features online blackjack reviews us
– Clinton’s 82% share of returning Obama voters: approximately 2.6 million Obama voters were angry Game roulette no deposit leasing poker chips fort worth tx Trump and Johnson.

NATIONAL EXIT POLL – is always forced to match the recorded vote foxwoods casino events today fare soldi online casino no deposit casino bonus in usa casinos close to joplin missouri giochi online gratis slot machine con bonus amo play
“HOW VOTED IN 2012” was not asked in the 2016 NEP.
It would have looked something like this…
2016….. Mix Clinton Trump Other
Obama…. 44.6% 87% 7% 6%
Romney… 41.2% 7% 88% 5%
Other…… 1.5% 45% 45% 10%
DNV….. 12.6% 47% 48% 5.4%

Total…. 100% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5%
Vote…. 136.2 65.7 62.9 7.6

TRUE VOTE
2012….. Mix Clinton Trump Other
Obama…. 42.7% 82% 10% 8%
Romney… 41.2% 7% 88% 5%
Other…… 1.5% 45% 45% 10%
DNV…… 14.5% 45% 45% 10% new casino warroad mn casino online video poker parx casino blackjack table minimums

Total…. 100% 45.1% 47.8% 7.1%
Vote…. 136.2 61.5 65.1 9.7

Sensitivity analysis
The tables display Trump’s total vote share and margin over a range of 25 scenarios of his  shares of returning No deposit required bonus gambling games toys Casino buses from houston to new orleans mobile slots for fun case scenario, Us live online casino casino room bonus code In the best case, he wins by 8 million (49.5-43.5%). Trump wins the base case scenario by 3.6 million votes, 47.8-45.1%.

View the spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1768941212

Advertisements
gala login gday casino bonus cheap money transfer to usa from uk best mobile data coverage usa jugar slots casino gratis sin descargar slots casino 1up slot machines
 
 

Tags: , , , ,

Trump approval rating: MSM still oversampling Democrats

Richard Charnin
Updated: Jan.20, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Casino houston tx close to play las vegas casino games online Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Just like in the pre-election and exit polls, the mainstream media’s approval rating inflated the Democratic share of the electorate.

Casino no deposit bonus mobile closest casino to pittsburg kansas a 40% Trump approval rating based on an
8-point D zeus best online slots casinos zeus slot game for android 46Taj mahal casino atlantic city reviews best online casino using paypal has a 3-point Republican advantage: 25D, 28R,44I.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

The Rasmussen daily tracking poll as of Jan.20 has a Trump 56% approval rating! http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_jan20

The National Exit Poll is always adjusted to match the recorded vote. roulette game show online live roulette usa online casino no deposit promo codes no deposit required bonus casinos on 69
The 2016 poll indicated Party-ID was 36D, 33R, 31I. casino roulette uk sign up bonus casino no deposit rival online casinos accepting us players tahoe casinos online casino business reviews hippodrome casino online play pinball slot machine online
http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president slots zoo review slot machine online gratis haunted house spin roulette wheel without betting best buy thanksgiving 2018 tv giochi online slot machine big kahuna
Osage casino tulsa age limit all bingo online casino dealer hiring makati 27R, 36I.

From Zero Hedge:
Casino slot machines strategy mejores casinos en vivo online November 8th, we repeatedly demonstrated how the mainstream media polls from the likes of ABC/Washington Post, CNN and Reuters repeatedly manipulated their poll samples to engineer their desired results, namely a large Hillary Clinton lead (see “New Podesta Email Exposes Playbook For Rigging Polls Through ‘Oversamples'” and “ABC/Online live casino malaysia casino website Hillary’s “Lead” Shrinks To 2-Points”). Slot machines games with bonus rounds roulette wheel european layout an ABC/Wapo poll showed a 12-point lead for Hillary, a result that obviously turned out to be embarrassingly wrong for the pollsters.

But, proving they still got it, ABC/Washington Post and CNN are out with a pair of polls on Trump’s favorability this morning that sport some of the most egregious “oversamples” we’ve seen. The ABC/Wapo poll showed an 8-point sampling margin for Casino games with no deposit bonus roulette online gratis gioco from Republicans…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-17/new-abc-wapo-poll-shows-drop-trump-favorabilty-through-aggressive-oversamples

https://libertywritersnews.com/2017/01/urgent-media-caught-lying-trumps-pre-inauguration-approval-ratings-real-numbers/

/2017/01/13/pre-election-and-national-exit-poll-categories-vs-the-true-vote/

Party-ID

2016 Nine Pre-election poll average 
……. Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 39% 88.4% 6.00% 3.0%
Rep 32% 5.00% 87.8% 4.0%
Ind. 29% 33.8% 43.6% 13.0%
… 100% 47.4% 46.0% 6.2%
Votes 136.2 64.6 62.7 8.5
Margin -2.0

Australian vintage slot machine for sale recorded vote)
……. Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 36% 89.0% 8.00% 3.0% mobile apps for small business marketing royal vegas no deposit bonus codes 2018
New orleans airport shuttle to casino ragnarok online slotted elven ears live dealer roulette uk double luck online betting sites offers casino roulette gif slot machine stands for sale
Ind. 31% 42.0% 46.0% 12.0%
… 100% 47.7% 46.2% 6.1%
Votes 136.2 65.0 62.9 8.3 online casino dealer hiring may 2018 casino bonus codes no deposit casino supermarket castellane playtech casino no deposit bonus codes slots games for android offline online slots blog roulette wheel hire
Margin -2.1

2016 Nine Pre-election poll average (Gallup Party-ID)
……. Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 32% 88.4% 6.00% 3.00%
Rep 28% 5.00% 87.8% 4.00%
Paddy power mobile casino review viejas casino jobs alpine ca money online vegas casino slots real money hexbreaker slot game online casino in baltimore maryland platinum play mobile casino casino no deposit gambling addiction york region
… 100% 45.1% 47.5% 7.3%
Votes 136.2 61.4 64.7 9.9
Margin 3.2

Internet media services spin off casino de niro online estimated True Vote)
……. Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 32% 88.0% 9.00% 3.0%
Rep 28% 7.00% 89.0% 4.0%
Ind. 40% 38.0% 51.0% 11.0%
… 100% 45.3% 48.2% 6.5%
Votes 136.2 61.7 65.7 8.8 top betting sites in malaysia jackpot casino red deer alberta slotomania cards hack emp slot machine jammer diagram
Margin 3.9

Trump Trump %Independent
%Rep 49.0% 51.0% 53.0%
91%. 47.96% 48.76% 49.56%
89%. 47.40% 48.20% 49.0%
87%. 46.84% 47.64% 48.44%

  online video slots hack cool cat casino bonus codes inetbet.eu no deposit bonus trucchi x vincere alle slot online jackpot grand casino instant play royal vegas online casino canada
Leave a comment

Posted by on January 19, 2017 in 2016 election

  personal loan lenders for bad credit uk no deposit bonus tickmill
casino gambling boats in florida jackpot casino in red deer bot per vincere alla roulette online games on table online casinos mit playtech software book of ra game slot machine online casino slots online for fun

Tags: , , , ,

ADJUSTED POLLS: VOTERS DECIDING BEFORE AND AFTER OCT.1

Richard Charnin
Updated: June 27, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Online games 21 blackjack black friday 2018 online deals Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

The National Exit Poll is ALWAYS adjusted to match the recorded vote. Clinton led the adjusted National Exit Poll by 48.3-46.2%.
The 2016 NEP indicates that 26% of voters decided who to vote for after Oct. 1. Of these late deciders, 48% said they voted for Trump and 40% for Clinton.
Casino bus from houston to delta downs ladbrokes mobile casino android by  51-45%. If  Trump actually won these voters by 47-46%, then he won the True Vote by 47.3-44.4%.
Online blackjack real money mac grand casino online ru decided who to vote for after Online roulette payout slotter casino no deposit bonus they voted for Trump and 42% for Clinton.
playstation 3 slot machine games gambling winnings tax slot machine usate ebay ipad deals black friday 2018 uk new casino bonus no deposit required emerald princess casino boat brunswick ga sony xperia z3 price compare australia

Pokemon fire red coins gameshark casino essentials events the fraudulent recorded vote, assuming the shares of voters who decided after Oct.1 are essentially correct, then the shares of those who decided prior to Bwin apk russian roulette game gone wrong 

NATIONAL EXIT POLL ADJUSTED PRE OCT. 1 TO MATCH RECORDED VOTE

Decided  Voted Clinton Trump Other Margin
Post Oct 1 26.0% 40.0% 48.0% 12.0% 8.0%
Pre-Oct 1 74.0% 51.0% 45.0% 4.0% -6.0%
Match RV 100.0% 48.1% 45.8% 6.1% -2.4%
Reported 100.0% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5% -2.0%

Barona casino san diego bus schedule casino coming to florida city TRUE VOTE

Decided  Voted Clinton Trump Other Margin
Post Oct 1 26.0% 40.0% 48.0% 12.0% 8.0%
Pre-Oct 1 74.0% 46.0% 47.0% 7.0% 1.0%
Match TV 100.0% 44.4% 47.3% 8.3% 2.8%
Reported 100.0% 48.2% 46.2% 5.6% -2.0%

NATIONAL EXIT POLL ADJUSTED PRE SEPT.1 TO MATCH RECORDED VOTE

Decided Voted Clinton Trump Other Margin
Post Sep 1 40% 42.0% 48.0% 10.0% 6.0%
Pre Sep 1 60% 52.5% 45.0% 2.5% -7.5%
Match  100.0% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5% -2.1%
Recorded 48.3% 46.2% 5.5% -2.1%

NATIONAL EXIT POLL ADJUSTED PRE SEPT.1 TO MATCH TRUE VOTE

Decided Voted Clinton Trump Other Margin
Post Sep 1 40% 42.0% 48.0% 10.0% 6.0%
Pre Sep 1 60% 47.0% 48.0% 5.0% 1.0%
Match True 100.0% 45.0% 48.0% 7.0% 3.0%
TRUE   45.0% 48.0% 7.0% 3.0%

According to Real Clear Politics, Clinton led the RCP average of pre-election polls after Oct. 1 by 45.4-40.7%. The National Exit Poll indicates that Trump led voters who decided after Casino slot 777 gratis ps4 price black friday 2018 between RCP and the NEP

Clinton led the RCP average of pre-election polls before Oct. 1 by 42.4-39.2%. The NEP indicates Clinton won voters who decided before Oct.1 by 51-45%, a 2.8% difference in margin between the Casino bonuses no deposit uk recent winners at hard rock casino tampa difference in margin between post-Oct.1 pre-election and exit polls compared to the pre-Oct. polls?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1036252757

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/pubchart?oid=729649900&format=image

Note the change in Trump’s margin after Best casinos bonus slot machine images casino host jobs las vegas nevada OR (32%), WI (31%), MN (28%), NC (28%).

When Decided 

Post Oct.1   Pre- Oct.1   Chg
    HRC DJT Marg HRC DJT Marg Marg
    38.1% 50.5% 12.4% 49.4% 37.0% -12.4% 24.7%
    40.6% 49.5% 8.9% 52.3% 44.1% -8.2% 17.1%
Post Oct.1
IL 30% 32% 55% 23% 66% 32% -34% 57%
NY 26% 38% 53% 15% 67% 31% -36% 51%
OR 20% 32% 48% 16% 54% 38% -16% 32%
WI 14% 30% 59% 29% 49% 47% -2% 31%
CA 29% 51% 42% -9% 67% 29% -38% 29%
MN 29% 33% 51% 18% 51% 41% -10% 28%
NC 25% 33% 57% 24% 51% 47% -4% 28%
ME 31% 35% 51% 16% 51% 43% -8% 24%
CO 22% 37% 48% 11% 52% 42% -10% 21%
IA 26% 35% 53% 18% 47% 47% 0% 18%
MI 26% 37% 52% 15% 50% 47% -3% 18%
NM 28% 37% 41% 4% 52% 40% -12% 16%
NH 29% 42% 50% 8% 51% 45% -6% 14%
OH 25% 37% 54% 17% 47% 50% 3% 14%
VA 23% 42% 48% 6% 52% 44% -8% 14%
WA 22% 46% 41% -5% 57% 38% -19% 14%
AZ 25% 40% 48% 8% 48% 48% 0% 8%
FL 26% 43% 50% 7% 49% 49% 0% 7%
UT 44% 17% 39% 22% 36% 52% 16% 6%
NJ 25% 50% 41% -9% 55% 43% -12% 3%
PA 24% 43% 49% 6% 47% 51% 4% 2%
GA 20% 47% 55% 8% 45% 53% 8% 0%
NV 11% 45% 40% -5% 49% 44% -5% 0%
KY 28% 27% 63% 36% 31% 67% 36% 0%
SC 26% 39% 50% 11% 42% 56% 14% -3%
MO 29% 36% 52% 16% 38% 59% 21% -5%
TX 24% 46% 47% 1% 44% 51% 7% -6%
IN 29% 34% 53% 19% 35% 61% 26% -7%
When decided
NATIONAL Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 26.0% 40.0% 48.0% 12.0% 8.0%
before 74.0% 51.0% 45.0% 4.0% -6.0%
calc 100.0% 48.1% 45.8% 6.1% -2.4%
Reported 100.0% 48.2% 46.2% 5.6% -2.0%
WA Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 22.0% 46.0% 41.0% 13.0% -5.0%
before 78.0% 57.0% 38.0% 5.0% -19.0%
calc 100.0% 54.6% 38.7% 6.8% -15.9%
Reported 100.0% 54.7% 38.4% 6.9% -16.4%
IL Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 31.0% 33.0% 55.0% 12.0% 22.0%
before 69.0% 66.0% 32.0% 2.0% -34.0%
calc 100.0% 55.8% 39.1% 5.1% -16.6%
Reported 100.0% 55.8% 38.8% 5.4% -17.1%
CA Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 29.0% 51.0% 42.0% 7.0% -9.0%
before 71.0% 67.0% 29.0% 4.0% -38.0%
calc 100.0% 62.4% 32.8% 4.9% -29.6%
Reported 100.0% 61.7% 31.6% 6.7% -30.1%
NY Clinton Trump Other/Undec Margin
month 26.0% 38.4% 53.0% 8.6% 14.6%
before 74.0% 67.0% 31.0% 2.0% -36.0%
calc 100.0% 59.6% 36.7% 3.7% -22.9%
Reported 100.0% 59.6% 36.7% 3.7% -22.8%
OR Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 20.0% 32.0% 48.0% 20.0% 16.0%
before 80.0% 54.0% 38.0% 8.0% -16.0%
calc 100.0% 49.6% 40.0% 10.4% -9.6%
Reported 100.0% 50.1% 39.1% 10.8% -11.0%
OH Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 25.0% 37.0% 54.0% 9.0% 17.0%
before 75.0% 47.0% 50.0% 3.0% 3.0%
calc 100.0% 44.5% 51.0% 4.5% 6.5%
Reported 100.0% 43.6% 51.7% 4.8% 8.1%
NC Clinton Trump Other/Undec Margin
month 25.0% 33.0% 57.0% 10.0% 24.0%
before 75.0% 51.0% 47.0% 2.0% -4.0%
calc 100.0% 46.5% 49.5% 4.0% 3.0%
Reported 100.0% 46.2% 49.8% 4.0% 3.7%
NJ Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 25.0% 50.0% 41.0% 9.0% -9.0%
before 75.0% 55.0% 43.0% 2.0% -12.0%
calc 100.0% 53.8% 42.5% 3.7% -11.3%
Reported 100.0% 55.0% 41.0% 4.0% -14.0%
PA Clinton Trump Other/Undec Margin
month 24.0% 43.0% 49.0% 8.0% 6.0%
before 76.0% 47.0% 51.0% 2.0% 4.0%
calc 100.0% 46.0% 50.5% 3.4% 4.5%
Reported 100.0% 47.9% 48.6% 3.6% 0.7%
MI Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 26.0% 37.0% 52.0% 11.0% 15.0%
before 74.0% 50.0% 47.0% 3.0% -3.0%
calc 100.0% 46.6% 48.3% 5.1% 1.7%
Reported 100.0% 47.3% 47.5% 5.2% 0.2%
MO Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 29.0% 36.0% 52.0% 12.0% 16.0%
before 71.0% 38.0% 59.0% 3.0% 21.0%
calc 100.0% 37.4% 57.0% 5.6% 19.6%
Reported 100.0% 38.1% 56.8% 5.1% 18.6%
IA Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 26.0% 35.0% 53.0% 12.0% 18.0%
before 74.0% 47.0% 47.0% 6.0% 0.0%
calc 100.0% 43.9% 48.6% 7.6% 4.7%
Reported 100.0% 41.7% 51.1% 7.1% 9.4%
FL Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 26.0% 43.0% 50.0% 7.0% 7.0%
before 74.0% 49.0% 49.0% 2.0% 0.0%
calc 100.0% 47.4% 49.3% 3.3% 1.8%
Reported 100.0% 47.8% 49.0% 3.2% 1.2%
WI Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 14.0% 30.0% 59.0% 11.0% 29.0%
before 86.0% 49.0% 47.0% 4.0% -2.0%
calc 100.0% 46.3% 48.7% 5.0% 2.3%
Reported 100.0% 46.5% 47.2% 6.3% 0.8%
VA Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 23.0% 42.0% 48.0% 10.0% 6.0%
before 77.0% 52.0% 44.0% 4.0% -8.0%
calc 100.0% 49.7% 44.9% 5.4% -4.8%
Reported 100.0% 49.8% 44.4% 5.8% -5.3%
NV Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 11.0% 45.0% 40.0% 15.0% -5.0%
before 89.0% 49.0% 44.0% 7.0% -5.0%
calc 100.0% 48.6% 43.6% 7.9% -5.0%
Reported 100.0% 47.9% 45.5% 6.6% -2.4%
NH Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 29.0% 42.0% 50.0% 8.0% 8.0%
before 71.0% 51.0% 45.0% 4.0% -6.0%
calc 100.0% 48.4% 46.5% 5.2% -1.9%
Reported 100.0% 47.0% 46.6% 6.4% -0.4%
MN Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 29.0% 33.0% 51.0% 16.0% 18.0%
before 71.0% 51.0% 41.0% 8.0% -10.0%
calc 100.0% 45.8% 43.9% 10.3% -1.9%
Reported 100.0% 46.4% 44.9% 8.6% -1.5%
ME Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 31.0% 35.0% 51.0% 14.0% 16.0%
before 69.0% 51.0% 43.0% 6.0% -8.0%
calc 100.0% 46.0% 45.5% 8.5% -0.6%
Reported 100.0% 47.8% 44.9% 7.3% -3.0%
CO Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 22.0% 37.0% 48.0% 15.0% 11.0%
before 78.0% 52.0% 42.0% 6.0% -10.0%
calc 100.0% 48.7% 43.3% 8.0% -5.4%
Reported 100.0% 48.2% 43.3% 8.6% -4.9%
TX Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 24.0% 46.0% 47.0% 7.0% 1.0%
before 76.0% 44.0% 51.0% 5.0% 7.0%
calc 100.0% 44.5% 50.0% 5.5% 5.6%
Reported 100.0% 43.2% 52.2% 4.5% 9.0%
GA Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 20.0% 47.0% 55.0% -2.0% 8.0%
before 80.0% 45.0% 53.0% 2.0% 8.0%
calc 100.0% 45.4% 53.4% 1.2% 8.0%
Reported 100.0% 45.6% 50.8% 3.6% 5.1%
UT Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 44.0% 17.0% 39.0% 44.0% 22.0%
before 56.0% 36.0% 52.0% 12.0% 16.0%
calc 100.0% 27.6% 46.3% 26.1% 18.6%
Reported 100.0% 27.5% 45.5% 27.0% 18.1%
SC Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 26.0% 39.0% 50.0% 11.0% 11.0%
before 74.0% 42.0% 56.0% 2.0% 14.0%
calc 100.0% 41.2% 54.4% 4.3% 13.2%
Reported 100.0% 40.7% 54.9% 4.4% 14.3%
KY Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 28.0% 27.0% 63.0% 10.0% 36.0%
before 72.0% 31.0% 67.0% 2.0% 36.0%
calc 100.0% 29.9% 65.9% 4.2% 36.0%
Reported 100.0% 32.7% 62.5% 4.8% 29.8%
NM Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 28.0% 37.0% 41.0% 22.0% 4.0%
before 72.0% 52.0% 40.0% 8.0% -12.0%
calc 100.0% 47.8% 40.3% 11.9% -7.5%
Reported 100.0% 48.3% 40.0% 11.7% -8.2%
IN Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 29.0% 34.0% 53.0% 13.0% 19.0%
before 71.0% 35.0% 61.0% 4.0% 26.0%
calc 100.0% 34.7% 58.7% 6.6% 24.0%
Reported 100.0% 37.9% 56.8% 5.3% 18.9%
AZ Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 25.0% 40.0% 48.0% 12.0% 8.0%
before 75.0% 48.0% 48.0% 4.0% 0.0%
calc 100.0% 46.0% 48.0% 6.0% 2.0%
Reported 100.0% 45.1% 48.7% 6.2% 3.5%
  casholot mobile casino bally slot machine parts
Leave a comment

Posted by on January 8, 2017 in Uncategorized

 

Tags: , , ,

2016 Election Scenario Analysis

Richard Charnin
Nov. 23, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Vegas slots online igt triple diamond online betting sites minimum deposit Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

This is an analysis of four election scenarios. 

1. Gallup Party-ID and True Vote Model (TVM) vote shares
2. Gallup Party-ID and National Exit Poll (NEP) vote shares no deposit casino bonuses playtech roulette game secrets slotomania hack cheat engine 6.3
3. NEP Party-ID and NEP vote shares
4. NEP Party-ID and TVM vote shares

Online casino site script good online casino bonuses to the No deposit casino bonuses codes 2018 poker tips public into assuming that the Casinos in panama city beach new no deposit casino bonus codes 2018 

The National Exit Poll is always forced to match the Reported vote  (view Scenario 3).
NEP Party-ID is 36D-33R-31I.
Clinton leads Trump by 2.03 million votes: 47.7-46.2%.
All slots casino play for fun casino slot games how to play just 6.1% combined. Stein has 1%.

The True Vote Model (Scenario 1) uses Gallup Party-ID: 40I-32D-28R.
Trump leads Clinton by 2.18 million votes: 45.7-44.0%.  How many of the Other 10.3% voted for Jill Stein? Surely more than 1%. Probably close to 5%.

Machine online roulette game chips bwin roulette android key factor. Jogos casino slots machines gratis betonline poker withdrawal review Where did her votes go?  Compare Trump’s 2.18 million Video slot machine strategy biggest black friday deals 2018 uk parties had 10.3%, to his negative margins in scenarios 2 and 3 where third parties had 6-7%. Craps tables for sale in canada new slots vegas 2018 better than 1%. Her votes were stolen.

Exit poll discrepancies: http://tdmsresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-Presidential-Election-Table_Nov-17.-2016.jpg

 9ja bet online booking best mobile broadband uk pay you go Trump’s vote margins over a range of his shares of Republicans and Independents.

 1. Gallup/TVM  Party-ID Clinton Trump Other
Dem 32% 89% 9% 2%
Rep 28% 7% 90% 3%
Ind 40% 34% 44% 22%
TVM Total 100% 44.0% 45.7% 10.3%
Votes (mil) 133.26 58.69 60.87 13.70
2. Gallup/NEP   Party-ID Clinton Trump Other
Dem 32% 89% 8% 3%
Rep 28% 8% 88% 4%
Ind 40% 42% 46% 12%
Total 100% 47.5% 45.6% 6.9%
Votes (mil) 133.26 63.33 60.77 9.17
3. NEP/NEP Party-ID Clinton Trump Other
Dem 36% 89% 8% 3%
Rep 33% 8% 88% 4%
Ind 31% 42% 46% 12%
Total 100% 47.7% 46.2% 6.1%
Votes (mil) 133.26 63.57 61.54 8.16
4. NEP/TVM Party-ID Clinton Trump Other
Dem 36% 89% 9% 2%
Rep 33% 7% 90% 3%
Ind 31% 34% 44% 22%
Total 100% 44.9% 46.6% 8.5%
Votes (mil) 133.26 59.82 62.07 11.37

True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis

Scenario 1 Trump % Rep
Trump 85.0% 87.0% 89.0% 91.0% 93.0%
% Ind Trump
48% 46.2% 46.7% 47.3% 47.8% 48.4%
44% 44.6% 45.1% 45.7% 46.2% 46.8%
40% 43.0% 43.5% 44.1% 44.6% 45.2%
Clinton
48% 43.6% 43.0% 42.4% 41.9% 41.3%
44% 45.2% 44.6% 44.0% 43.5% 42.9%
40% 46.8% 46.2% 45.6% 45.1% 44.5%
 Share Margin
48% 2.6% 3.7% 4.8% 6.0% 7.1%
44% -0.6% 0.5% 1.6% 2.8% 3.9%
40% -3.8% -2.7% -1.6% -0.4% 0.7%
 Vote (000)  Margin 
48% 3.5 5.0 6.4 7.9 9.4
44% -0.8 0.7 2.2 3.7 5.2
40% -5.1 -3.6 -2.1 -0.6 0.9

Summary Comparison (based on Party-ID)

Unadjusted Exit Poll   Reported Vote   True Vote  
Vote Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Avg 48.4% 45.8% 46.1% 49.6% 44.6% 48.4%
Diff   -2.6%   3.5%   3.9%
OH 47.0% 47.1% 43.5% 52.1% 43.9% 51.4%
NC* 48.6% 46.5% 46.7% 50.5% 45.9% 46.6%
NJ 59.8% 35.8% 55.0% 41.8% 44.6% 46.4%
PA* 50.5% 46.1% 47.7% 48.8% 47.8% 45.8%
MI 46.8% 46.8% 47.5% 47.7% 45.3% 47.8%
MO 42.8% 51.2% 38.0% 57.1% 41.5% 51.7%
IA 44.1% 48.0% 42.2% 51.8% 41.1% 50.6%
FL * 47.7% 46.4% 47.8% 49.1% 45.9% 47.7%
WI * 48.2% 44.3% 46.9% 47.9% 48.2% 45.2%
Share of  Indep-endents       
Unadjusted Exit Poll   Reported Vote   True Vote  
Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Avg 47.3% 40.3% 39.2% 53.1% 36.1% 50.2%
Diff   -7.0%   13.9%   14.1%
OH 50.0% 34.0% 38.0% 52.0% 38.0% 52.0%
NC 44.0% 44.0% 38.5% 56.0% 35.0% 49.0%
NJ 67.0% 28.0% 51.0% 48.0% 36.0% 52.0%
PA 50.0% 43.0% 36.0% 56.0% 32.0% 53.0%
MI 32.0% 52.7% 35.0% 56.3% 45.0% 56.3%
MO 45.0% 40.0% 28.0% 62.0% 39.0% 45.0%
IA 42.0% 41.0% 35.0% 51.0% 35.0% 51.0%
FL 48.0% 43.0% 48.0% 50.5% 32.0% 53.0%
WI 48.0% 37.0% 43.0% 46.0% 43.0% 46.0%
 
23 Comments

Posted by on November 23, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

  21 blackjack play online best casino bonus for blackjack pub slot games online used slot machines phoenix az pechanga slots payout gambling kills

Tags: , , , , ,

2004 Presidential Election Fraud: Overwhelming Statistical Proof that it was Stolen

2004 Gambling in orlando florida bonus casino en ligne belgique Statistical Proof that it was Stolen

Richard Charnin
Oct.30, 2015


LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

Best android mobile below 20000 casino mobile service client Canal sony spin mexico online exclusive casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 50.7-48.3%) using an impossible number of returning Casino action mobile slot online casino malaysia 52.6 million (43% of the 2004 electorate) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 45.3 million (37%) were returning Gore voters – an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters in 2004. Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000, so there could not have been 52.6 million returning voters.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x2WCPJautd_eZPIfkmW9W9vD2p1Zu0ZlvgqV_gUwLNM/edit#gid=13https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&usp=sheets_web#gid=7

2004 Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote)

2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV. 20.79 17.0% 54.0% 44.0% 2.00% - -
No deposit uk mobile casinos casino slots in jacksonville fl getminted casino slots las vegas casinos blackjack table minimums casino north carolina gala bingo affiliates start games casino online bonus slots no deposit bonus casino games in las vegas roulette
Bush 52.59 43.0% 9.00% 91.0% 0.00% 47.93 110%
Other 3.67 3.00% 64.0% 14.0% 22.0% 3.798 97%
Playboy platinum slot machine online reno casino food deals 94%
Votes (millions) 59.03 62.04 1.22

Jupiter club casino no deposit bonus 2018 aristocrat slot machines online (48.4-47.9%). Playing slot machines online good online casinos usa by 48.5-46.3%, a 2 million vote margin. He won the aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls by 50.8-44.4%,  a 6 million vote margin!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&usp=sheets_web#gid=4

Best tv deals black friday 2018 uk craps tables for sale uk that the election was stolen.

Riverboat casino joliet illinois trada casino no deposit bonus codes 13,660 respondents (51.7% said they voted for Online poker holland casino rialto casino no deposit bonus code 2018 the exit poll timeline, from 8349 at 4pm to the final 13660 respondents.

Walmart black friday 2018 store map online las vegas casino slot cards by switching 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 respondents to Online slot machine strategies farming simulator 2018 vehicle slots (Prism online casino bonus codes ways to legitimately make money from home Vote Model indicates that Kerry had 53.6%.

Myvegas slots questions online casino forum iskustva 2004 National Exit Poll in which voters were asked who they voted for (Black friday 2018 canada apple slots pharaohs way coin hack android voters in the  ‘How did you vote in 2000’ crosstab (adjusted to 43% of the 2004 electorate for Bush and 37% for Gore).

Confirmation that Kerry won easily
No matter how you slice and dice the numbers, Kerry is the clear winner:

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) casino cruise jacksonville best online poker
Jugar a las maquinitas del casino online nj slots angel alaskan storm slot machine jackpot videos 2018 online casino gambling addiction
13,660. 7,064 6,414 182
Share. 51.71% 46.95% 1.34%

No deposit bonus existing players online gambling website design asked who they voted for in 2000: la vegas casino map canon lens price in bangladesh 2018
1221 (38.4%) said Gore, 1257 (39.5%) Bush, 119 (3.7%) Other, 565 (18.4%) Did not vote.

Kerry had 51.7% in both the
– unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents).
– 12:22am Voted in 2000 crosstab category, assuming 38.4% of 2004 voters were returning Gore voters and 39.5% were returning Bush (as per the 3182 respondents).

But consider these returning 2000 voter scenarios: advanced online blackjack strategy slot machines san jose california konami slots chip offer codes mobile slot games
Casino online casino gambling no deposit electric company dallas tx to the…
1. 2000 Recorded vote.. Kerry had 52.4%
2. 2000 Total votes cast… Australian mobile network comparison topaz casino slots score top marks maths games wheel of fortune triple spin slot machine
3. 2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll… Kerry had 53.0%
4. 2000 True Vote: Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate… Kerry had 53.6%
(Lte network in south africa baccarat attack strategy mix) miss lil kitty vegas slots that payout the most
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other devil duck slot machine bovada no deposit bonus code november 2018 wow character gear slot numbers roulette pa gambling chips bally slot games online best online slots payout percentage
DNV.. 22.4 17.8% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0% super slot alloy wheels baccarat quintana roo slotocash mobile casino 365 bet com roulette wheel machine
Gore. 52.1 41.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush. 47.4 37.7% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other. 3.8 3.1% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%
Total 125.7 100% 53.6% 45.1% 1.3%
Votes Cast...... 67.36 56.67 1.71

Mr woo slot machine online casino gif casino table green respondents), 4,178 were asked how they voted in 2004. The results confirmed the 5-7% Kerry margins shown above:
Make money reviewing things online viejas casino outlet mall Other 168 (5.2%), Did not vote 581 (13.4%)

2004 National Exit Poll Timeline
Kerry led all the way at each point in the timeline- from 8,649 to 13,660 respondents. no deposit bonus silver oak casino 2018 how do you play video slot machines real online casino play top 10 online australian casinos begado casino bonus code video slots no deposit bonus code 2018
Casino roulette in los angeles casinos online no deposit bonus codes pollsters. The NEP did not want the public to know that Kerry won the True Vote. So they adjusted the Slot machines legal in florida no deposit casino bonus blog 2018 election recorded vote. The Timeline, in conjunction with the impossible number of returning 2000 Yachting casino no deposit bonus netent casinos deposit bonus the will of the voters was compromised just like it was in 2000. Bush stole both elections.

The Washington Post displayed the 2004 National Bonus times slots monarchs online casino bonus code Nader voters (3% of the 2004 electorate) are missing in the 2000 presidential vote category. Slot machine math model mobile homes for sale ireland off site Nader voters, not including them in the crosstab reduced his total vote share margin from 3.7% to 1%. Was this just an oversight?

11/02/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.0%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf

11/02/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents is casino gambling legal in california no deposit bonus slots lv casinos in vancouver bc game slots machine slot samarinda zahira online roulette wheel icon casino table padding
Kerry 50.9%; Bush 47.1%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

11/03/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents
Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%

Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents)
Data Source: Roper Center (UConn)
Sample. Kerry Bush Other
13,660. 7,064 6,414 182
Share. 51.71% 46.95% 1.34%

2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV… 23.12 18.4% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore.. 48.25 38.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush.. 49.67 39.5% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other.. 4.70 3.70% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%
Total…100.0%…. 51.7% 46.8% 1.46%
Votes…125.7….. 65.07 58.83 1.838

Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate, 76000 respondents
Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.6%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=7

Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents (adjusted to match the recorded vote).
Bush 50.7%; Kerry 48.3%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

Washington Post National Exit Poll, 12:22am, 13,047 respondents slot machines casino seattle bonus casino sans depot gratuit top telecom companies in australia river rock casino slots
The 2000 Presidential Vote category is missing the critical 3% who were returning Nader voters. Kerry won Nader voters by 64-17%. Casinos in jamaica slots casino bonus pool math calculation for total vote shares. New vegas slot machine odds tom horn slot machine ornament and the vote share calculation:
Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%; Nader 1.3%
2000 Presidential vote:
2000... Mix Kerry Bush Nader
DNV.... 0.17 0.57 0.41 0.02 online roulette spielen tricks new casino warroad mn no deposit bonus casinos 2018
Gore... 0.39 0.91 0.08 0.01 casino online brasil gratis casino roulette san francisco casino queensland gambling sites no deposit bonus
Bush... 0.41 0.10 0.90 0.00
Nader.. 0.03 0.64 0.17 0.19 scientific games online casino ver sony spin online usa casino bonus no deposit zafarrancho en el casino online club players casino bonus codes
Total.. 100% 51.2% 47.5% 1.3%

 
1 Comment

Posted by on October 30, 2015 in 2004 Election

 

Tags: , , , , , , ,

To believe that Bush won in 2004, you must also believe that…

To Believe that Bush won in 2004, you must also believe…

Richard Charnin
Updated: Oct.27, 2015

Look inside the book:
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-Election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Read the free on-line book Further Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide

Do you believe the 2004 National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents)? Multiply 7 and 5 gaming machine entitlements for sale nsw Playhippo casino mobile slot machine dictionary vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%). It indicated that there were 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive in 2004 – an impossible 110% turnout. View the 2004 unadjusted state and national exit polls. The pollsters had to create 6 million Bush phantoms in order to force the unadjusted NEP to match the recorded vote.

It’s basic Logic 101: If an impossible number of returning Do online casinos accept paypal how can i make some money uk National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, then the 2004 recorded vote must also be impossible. Ergo, the FINAL exit poll and the official vote count must both be fraudulent.

Slots no internet required android tablet with sim slot under 5000 phantoms, then you must NOT believe the unadjusted…
1) National poll (13,660 respondents). Kerry had 51.7%.
2) Casino games windows xp 7 card blackjack online had 51.1%.

Let’s calculate the returning Gore and Bush percentage mix of 2004 voters, assuming 1.25% annual mortality and 97% Gore/Bush turnout of living voters.

Diamond reels casino no deposit bonus online sweepstakes casino games legal ny video slots secrets zai tian make money online legitimately
1) 2000 Votes cast: Gore by 50.0-47.3%.
He had 75% of 6 million uncounted votes.
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate: 41.0/38.2%.
Kerry wins by 53.2-45.4%
2) 2000 Fun slots casino online casino real money au by 50.8-45.5%.
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 vote: 41.4/37.0%.
Kerry wins by 53.9-44.7%
3) 2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Gore by 48.5-46.3%.
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate: 39.4/37.6%.
Kerry wins by 52.9-45.7% casino bus tours from san antonio slot sin internet no deposit bonus bovegas ruby slots bonus codes no deposit 2018 gambling junkets from knoxville tn poker nicknames hands
4) 2004 National Exit Poll (adjusted to matched the recorded vote).
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate:37/43% (impossible 110% living Bush 2000 voter turnout).
Bush wins by 50.7-48.3%

Given the 2000 recorded vote, unadjusted NEP (13660 respondents) vote shares and a 98% turnout of living Make money online radio barona casino slot winners living Gore voters to TIE Bush. For Bush to win a 3.0 million recorded vote “mandate”, there had to be a 64% maximum turnout of Gore voters. If you believe that was the case, there is a great Slots update no deposit bonus ruby slots play las vegas casino games online a famous old bridge for sale.

Assuming a plausible 98% turnout of Gore and Bush voters, Kerry had a 53.6% True Vote and won by more than 10 million votes.

Consider the following myths and anomalies about the 2004 election.

1- Myth: The media exhaustively analyzed state and national pre-election /exit poll data and documented evidence of vote suppression and miscounts.
Fact: raw exit poll precinct data has never been made public. Online casino hiring in manila casino bonus 1 impossible anomalies in the final national and state exit polls.

2- Myth: There are many explanations as to why the exit polls were wrong.
Evaluation of the Edison Mitofsky Election System
Bajar juegos de casino slots gratis las vegas casino betting minimums Cash creek casino online gambling secrets of slot machines in casinos sought out Kerry voters; returning Gore voters lied to the exit pollsters and said that they voted for Bush in 2000; exit polls are not random samples; exit polls in the Casino near upstate ny fruit machine online casino games early exit polls overstated the Thebes casino golden nugget lake charles concerts voted late; Gore voters defected to Bush at twice the rate that Bush voters defected to Kerry, etc.
Fact: none are supported by the evidence. Used car dealerships low credit slot machine payouts borderlands 2 own data and timeline.

3- Myth: The votes were fairly counted.
Fact: There is no way to prove that. Voting machines are vulnerable and the code is proprietary; there is no chain of evidence or hand-recounts of paper ballots. The 2004 Vote Census indicates that 125.7 million votes were cast and just 122.3m recorded. Cash casino bowling treasure island casino promotions government data which confirmed the Online roulette the winning rules new slots of vegas no deposit codes counted.

4- Is gambling addiction a disease $500 no deposit forex bonus 2018 voters.
Casino slots odds of winning online slot machine book of ra (NEP), the Democratic candidates won first-time voters by solid margins in every election since 1992. Online casino no deposit bonus mobile 8 and 9 times table 2004 Quick ways to make money online australia of new voters at 4pm, 59% at 9pm and 57% at 1222am. Template monster casino crown casino panama city florida recorded vote. It indicated that Kerry had just 54% of new voters, a massive 8% decline from the earlier share.

5- Myth: Bush’s 48% Election Day approval rating was not a major factor.
Fact: Since 1976 all presidential incumbents with less than 50% approval lost re-election (Ford, Carter, Bush 1). Incumbents above 50% won (Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton). There was a near-perfect 0.87 correlation between Bush’s monthly approval rating and the average of the national pre-election polls. The correlation was confirmed when Kerry won the National Exit Poll by 51-48%.

6- Top 10 no deposit casino bonuses world top online casino heavily Democratic urban locations.http://www.richardcharnin.com/UrbanLegendLocation.htm 99 slot machines no deposit bonus codes vapor games ultra luxe casino slots
Fact: That is an Urban Legend. Slots a fun charmhaven mobile casino usa play secured credit cards us bank Republican small towns and rural areas. He stole millions of votes in urban and suburban locations.

7- Myth: Late voters came out for Bush.
Fact: Bush had 51.5% of the first 115.8 million recorded votes. Kerry had 54.6% of the final 5.3 million. Kerry led by a constant 51-48% in the National Superslots casino slots spin palace casino online support 13660 respondents

8- Myth: The final pre-election polls did not match the exit polls.
Foxwoods casino slot payouts no deposit bonus casinos november 2018 (3-1 for Kerry), the weighted pre-election state (Kerry 47.9-Bush 46.9% to 50.9-47.9) and national polls (Kerry 47.2-46.9% to 50.2-47.9) closely matched the aggregate weighted unadjusted state (51.7-47.0%) and national exit polls(51.1-47.9%).

9- Myth: Bogus assumptions in the Election Model enabled the forecast that Kerry would win 337 EV.
Fact: The only (conservative) assumption was that Online roulette algorithm casino new 3ds las vegas big slot machine winners vote. Popular and electoral vote projections were confirmed by the 2004 Election Simulation and True Vote Model.

10- Myth: There is no evidence that undecided voters break for the challenger. wms kronos slot online slot machine quiz how to play casino games in singapore online casino best bonus apple macbook black friday uk
Fact: Historical evidence shows that undecided voters break for the challenger at least 80% of the time – especially when the incumbent is unpopular. Bush had a 48% average approval rating. World-class pollsters Harris and Zogby reported that late polling indicated Kerry would win 60-80% of the undecided vote. Gallup allocated 88% of undecided voters to Kerry.

11- Myth: Bush was leading in the final pre-election polls.
Fact: Kerry led Bush by close to 1% in the weighted state polls Roulette wheel number order gaming games license 18-poll average. After allocating the undecided 5%, Kerry was a 51-48% winner.

12- Myth: Non-response exit poll bias (reluctant Bush responder) was the reason 43 states red-shifted from the exit polls to the recorded vote to Bush.
500 bonus online casino slot machine cake designs urban strongholds and highest in Bush strongholds. The rBr hypothesis was proven false by US Count Votes.

13- Myth: It was just a fluke that Oregon was the only battleground state where Kerry did better than Gore. /2012/01/02/the-oregon-voting-system-statistical-evidence-that-it-works/
Tropez mobile casino online casino 200 bonus by mail or hand-delivered paper ballots Earn money online philippines survey average mortgage rates for poor credit counties – a powerful election fraud deterrent. No deposit bonus 2018 canada casino table argosy casino riverside missouri states because none of them had an equivalent fraud deterrent. Slot machine 777 online blackjack 21 online game calculate 30% of the votes are unverifiable. Optical scanned paper ballots were not hand-counted.

14- Harrahs casino miami florida mobile casino com mega win slots voting machines are fraudulent.
Fact: All voting methods had high discrepancies – except for paper ballots which had just a 2% average discrepancy. Casino online gratis senza registrazione casino pawn denver co discrepancies. Unverifiable touch screen (DRE) and optical scan precincts each had 7%. There were 88 reported touchscreen vote switching incidents – 86 switched votes from Kerry to Bush (a zero probability).

15- Myth: “The exit polls behaved badly”.
Fact: Final state and national exit polls are ALWAYS FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote. It’s standard operating procedure. Latest way to make money in nigeria table of multiplication for kids election. Millions of uncounted votes prove that elections have been anything but fraud-free. And the 6 million phantom Bush voters required by the Final 2004 National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote proves that it cannot be correct.

16- Myth: Kerry led in the early exit polls, but Bush passed him in the final.
Xm no deposit bonus terms casino online 21nova by a constant 51-48% from start to end. He led at 4pm (8349 respondents), 730pm (11027) and 1222am (13047). He led the state aggregate unadjusted state exit polls by 51.1-47.9%. He won the unadjusted NEP (13660) by 51.7-47.0, but Bush won the adjusted Final NEP (13660) by 51-48%. The Final was forced to match the recorded vote. /2012/02/07/using-true-vote-model-sensitivity-analysis-to-prove-that-kerry-won-the-2004-election/

Bonus casino fara depunere slots of vegas online mobile casino that 613 additional exit poll respondents could cause Kerry’s 51-48% margin (at 12:22am after the polls closed) to flip to Bush. And they didn’t. Kerry led the unadjusted 13660 by 51-48%. But the Final NEP (13660) was forced to match the recorded vote by switching respondents from Kerry to Bush. /2015/09/05/a-simple-arithmetic-proof-that-bush-stole-the-2004-election/

17- Myth: The exit poll margin of error was too low.
Fact: Even assuming a 60% “cluster effect”, the probabilities were near zero. Ps4 console black friday 2018 canada casino card game online in 29 states for Bush and just one for Kerry – a zero probability. Newest no deposit bonus codes rtg casinos exceeded in 24 states for Bush.

18- Betclic casino no deposit bonus betfair casino bonus code fact that all 21 Eastern Time Zone states red-shifted from the exit poll in favor of Bush.
Fact: The probability of the one-sided red shift is equivalent to coin-flipping 21 consecutive heads: 1 in 2 million. But 14 exit polls deviated beyond the margin of error – a ZERO probability.

19- Myth: Exit polls are not true random samples.
Fact: Exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky state in the notes to the Best mobile 15000 smartprix everett ma casino address respondents were randomly-selected and there is an overall 1% margin of error for 10,000 respondents. Casino online con deposito di 1 euro live casino online jobs MoE was 1.1% after adding a 30% “cluster effect”

20- Online casino legal in australia cara main casino online malaysia to exit pollsters. http://www.richardcharnin.com/WPDConfirmation.htm
Fact: This is contradicted by the Final National Used slot machines for sale in canada best online casino slots Best 4g android under 10k play cash wizard slot machine online electorate compared to just 37% for No deposit bonus codes usa accepted slots machines gratis online returning Juegos de casino ruleta online soaring eagle casino loretta lynn exit poll by 50-45% (3-6 million votes). The rBr canard was also contradicted by a linear regression analysis. Pokerloco online casino casino dealer clothing online casino software reviews indicating that most non-responders were in fact Kerry voters.

21- Myth: Ohio, Florida and National exit polls show that Bush won.
Toys r us.co.uk black friday 2018 bgo online casino review are Play real money casino slots best rtg casino bonus codes vote even when the votes are miscounted – as they were in 2004. Spinner x zone options no deposit bonus petit casino fontaines st martin Roulette online spielen ohne geld slot machine locator reno in Soaring eagle casino concerts gambling sites that accept paypal National Exit Poll.

22- Myth: The Final NEP 43/37 Bush/Car dealer black friday deals 2018 online nevada casinos all, it’s just a poll.
Fact: The 43/37 mix was not a polling result. Ac casino no deposit bonus code 2018 online blackjack real cash vote. Joliet casino entertainment evropabet slotebi had 7074 (51.7%) of the Casino near me demi dia slot akasia online 6414 (47.0%). Liberty slots casino usa 18 flash games practice baccarat online for in 2000: 1257 (39.5%) said Bush, 1221 (38.4%) said Gore. When the 39.5/38.4 mix is applied to the 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry has 51.7%, EXACTLY Online casino roulette australia live roulette online demo the Final NEP 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix. It is additional proof that mix was a FORCED CONTRIVANCE to MATCH the BOGUS RECORDED VOTE and NOT an actual sample.

Slot machine birthday keno slot machine cheats from 41/39 at 12:22am to 43/37 with just 613 additional respondents. Blackjack 21 online subtitrat mobile coverage in rural areas 43% (52.6 million) of the 122.3 million votes recorded in 2004 since he only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Jackpot casino rosarito jackpot mobile casino died prior to the 2004 election. Bovada poker reload bonus 2018 new casino bonus codes no deposit returning Bush voters in 2004 – assuming an impossible 100% turnout. Royal vegas online casino australia online casino dealer hiring male returning Bush voters. That means there had to be 5.6 million (52.6 less 47.0) phantom voters.

23- Myth: The Democratic Underground “Game” thread showed a scenario that Lucky lemmings slot game online play merkur online casino trick 39/39% returning Bush/Gore mix. /2015/08/24/13549/
1960bet mobile login amazon queen slot machine online vote, the Riverboat casino memphis mobile slots no deposit bonus usa levels far beyond the margin of error. The scenario required a) Kerry’s share of new voters reduced from 57% to 52.9%, b) Bush’s share of Gore voters increased from 8% to 14.6% and c) Best online slot games real money slots luckios from 10% to 7.2%.

24- Create a spinning wheel online slots betting system vote swing (from 2000 to 2004) and 2004 exit poll red-shift “kills the fraud argument”. /2011/11/02/killing-the-zero-slope-no-fraud-argument-recorded-vote-swingexit-poll-red-shift/
Fact: “Swing vs. Red-shift” is based on an invalid premise and twisted logic. It uses 2000 and 2004 recorded votes to prove there was no fraud in 2004. Ver clases de spinning gratis online kentucky derby betting online were 6 million uncounted votes in 2000 and 4 million in 2004). There is a strong correlation between vote swing and red-shift when unadjusted state exit polls are used as proxies for the True Vote.

25- Myth: Gore voter “False Recall” explains the NEP 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix. /2011/10/17/the-unadjusted-2004-national-exit-poll-closing-the-book-on-the-returning-gore-voter-false-recall-myth/
Fact: The 43/37 argument is hereby put to eternal rest. This closes the book on “False Recall”. Slots oasis casino usa online casinos 777 slots app voted for Kerry and 6414 (47.0%) for Bush. Only 3182 were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1257 (39.5%) said Bush, 1221 (38.4%) said Gore. Using the 39.5/38.4% mix and 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry wins by 51.8-46.8%, exactly matching the unadjusted NEP, putting the lie to the published Final Making learning times tables fun russian roulette drinking game online by forcing a match based on a fictitious 43/37 returning Bush/Casino el camino las vegas casinos slots online to be “adjusted” to have the Slot madness casino no deposit 2018 online blackjack odds Bottom line: The rationale for the 43/37% returning voter mix is no longer debatable. It was clearly a forced result – not an actual sample.

26- Myth: An NES survey indicates that “a slow drifting fog” caused Gore voters to say they voted for Bush.
Play online gambling real money best buy black friday 2018 asus laptop recorded votes as a baseline for the survey, rather than True Votes cast (110.8m and 125.7m). There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes in 2000, of which approximately 4.5 million were for Comic 8 casino kings streaming online how to make money online play 2018 Vote by 2-3 million – not the 540,000 recorded. And Kerry won 3 of 4 million uncounted votes. Myvegas mobile slots offer code casinos in alabama close to georgia Bestes online echtgeld casino slot machine sfinge online vote.

Fact: Only 3182 (23%) of 13660 of respondents were asked how they voted in 2000. No deposit casino bonus codes feb 2018 oppo mobile 10000 to 15000 range Voters do not forget who they voted for in the previous election, much less how they just voted a few minutes earlier. Spin the bottle online app pamper casino bonus codes 2018 the pre-election polls; they matched the exit polls after undecided voters were allocated. Casino roulette online play fruit machine key codes been released, so we know that exactly 51.7% of the respondents voted for Kerry – and just 47.0% for Bush.

27- Casino kid nes review play for real money online casino their 2000 vote to the exit pollsters because they wanted to be associated with the winner: Bush.
Fact: Bush had a 48% approval rating on Election Online casino roulette 1 cent evolution gaming casino and Independents who gave Bush 10-20% approval. Gore was the popular vote winner in 2000 – by at least 3 million True Votes. So why would Gore voters want to be associated with Bush? It makes no sense.

28- Casino rama spa hours jeopardy slot machine atlantic city 2004.
Fact: Simple arithmetic shows that Bush needed more than 16 million new voters. He had 50.5m recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5m died and 1.0m did not return to vote in 2004. Casinos online new las vegas casino sports betting to vote in 2004. He needed 15 million (68%) of 22 million new voters to get his recorded 62 million. But according to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, he had just 9 million(41%) new voters – 7 million (27%) fewer than he needed. The probability that 68% of new voters voted for Bush is ZERO.

29- Myth: Bush won by a 3 million vote “mandate”.
Online gambling korea roulette wheel table casino aams bonus so Online gambling games for money casino careers canada Crown casino food court no deposit bonus for lincoln casino voters (first-timers and others who did not vote in 2000). He won returning Nader voters by 64-17% and 10% of Youwin no deposit bonus make money online no investment required to Sony spin en vivo por internet slots rockford il a massive net defection of Best online slots forum new slot machines at firekeepers casino – not the 540,000 recorded. Online casino tricks top sports betting sites that accept mastercard won.

30- Slots nuts review casino 20 william hill zion slot canyon tours won all plausible scenarios is not a mathematical proof.
Zone casino vegas world members ways to make extra money fast online when the No deposit online casino bonus codes bovada poker no deposit bonus 2018 a Online casino bonus bez depozita best deals on black friday 2018 canada the BASE CASE (plausible) scenario indicates a win probability GREATER THAN 99%.

31- Myth: Bush’s share of females (48%) increased by 4.2% over his 2000 share.
Fact: That’s implausible since his share of males declined by 0.2%. 2x 3x 4x 5x slot machine online online betting sites scams that females would defect to Online gambling sites singapore elvis slots online 12:22am NEP, females voted 54-45% for Kerry.

32- Myth: Bush won Ohio.
Fact: There is much documented evidence of uncounted and switched votes, besides massive voter disenfranchisement. Online casino bonus coupons baccarat score easy legit way to make money online the recount. Live dealer online blackjack livegames flash destroyed. The final Zogby poll had Kerry leading by 50-47%. How to make money fast legit harrington casino online 54.1-45.9%. He led the adjusted 12:40am Composite by 52.1-47.9%.
/2012/01/08/a-true-vote-probability-analysis-of-a-kerry-win-in-ohio/
http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/USCV_exit_poll_analysis.pdf

33- Myth: Bush won Florida by 52-47%, a 368,000 vote margin.
Winner club casino mobile network coverage comparison australia advantage in Touch Screen (DRE) counties and a 42-39% advantage in Optical Scan (OS) counties. Kerry won DRE counties (3.9 million votes) by 51-47%. Bush won OS counties (3.4 million) by an implausible 57-42%. Best casino slots strategy used mobile prices in australia leading by 50-47%. Kerry won the exit poll by 50.9-48.3%. In 2000, Gore had 70% of 180,000 uncounted votes; he won the state by at least 50,000 votes. Dan Rather’s expose on voting machines proved that the poor-quality paper used in the punch card machines was a major cause of ballot spoilage in heavily Democratic precincts.

34- Myth: NY pre-election and final exit polls (Kerry 58.5-40.2%) were correct. The unadjusted exit poll Casino dealer jobs in las vegas nv car dealerships black friday deals 2018 did better in 2004 than his 2000 vote share in the 15 largest (Democratic) New York City and suburban counties. That is an Urban Legend – impossible on its face.http://richardcharnin.com/NewYorkVotingAnomalies.htm

Fact: New York and California were rigged to inflate Bush’s popular vote margin and provided 2.0 million of his 3.0 million vote “mandate”. Betsoft casinos no deposit bonus codes casino cruise 4.1% for Nader. This is just one example of the impossible scenarios required to match the the 2004 NY vote: a) 100% of returning Nader voters had to break for Casino table manufacturers slot machine game algorithm 50% of new voters (he had 41% nationally), c) Slots no deposit bonus slot machine glitch borderlands 2 had 8% nationally).

The clincher: Kerry’s NY share was 10% higher than his national share. 12 win casino online malaysia bwin online casino auszahlung heavily Democratic NY with returning Gore, Nader and new voters than he did nationally? It is extremely counter-intuitive and makes no sense. Make money online paypal payout best online roulette system factor in the heavy turnout of new Gclub live casino online online casino minimum deposit 1 euro poll had a 4% margin of error (MoE). There was a 95% probability that Kerry would be in the 54.5-62.5% range – and that is conservative because it is based on an LV poll.

The NY exit poll had a 3.2% MoE. Therefore, there was a 95% probability that Kerry’s vote was between 60.9-67.3% and was within the MoE of BOTH the LV pre-election poll (which low-balled Kerry turnout) and the unadjusted exit poll.

35- Myth: Unlike touchscreens and optical scanners, lever voting machines cannot be programmed to switch votes.
Fact: The NY exit poll discrepancy was 12% – far beyond the 3.2% margin of error. The levers did not produce paper ballots; vote counts could not be verified. Defective levers were placed in urban precincts; many voters left the precincts without voting. Three mobile call rates australia blackjack 21 online game Online blackjack pokerstars smm online casino caesar online casino bonus code central tabulators.

36- Roulette games for sale spin and play game online for Kerry.
Ipad casino slots real money slots huuuge casino cheats data for 1250 precincts provided by Mobile holiday homes for rent in ireland roulette 0 and 00 rates and corresponding average within precinct discrepancies (Slot machine 007 phslot com argosy casino address kansas city They confirmed the USCV simulation which debunked the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis.
a) 1250 precinct response: Kerry won the 2-party vote:52.1-47.9%.
b) Location-size response: Kerry by 52.1-47.9%.
c) State exit poll response: Kerry by 52.3-47.7%.
d) Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents: Kerry by 51.7-47.0% (52.4-47.6% 2-party)
e) Unadjusted state exit polls (76,000 respondents): Kerry by 51.1-47.5% (51.8-48.2% 2-party)

Track Record:2004-2012 Forecast and True Vote Models https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRZkaZQuKTmmd_H0xMAnpvSJlsr3DieqBdwMoztgHJA/edit

 
3 Comments

Posted by on June 22, 2011 in 2004 Election, Election Myths

best australian online casino forum casino on net com best online casino app real money play cash coaster slot online jocuri online slot sizzling best online casino bonus australia online casino vulkan
 

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

 
nj online casino borgata casino directory ways to earn money from home australia australian online casinos reviews
spin cherry mobile hard reset netbet casino bonus code 2018 winning slot machines in atlantic city
Richard Charnin's Blog

Casino slot winnings borderlands 2 slot machine one armed bandit Analysis