To Believe that Bush won in 2004, you must also believe…
Updated: Oct.27, 2015
Look inside the book:
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-Election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Read the free on-line book Further Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide
Do you believe the 2004 National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents)? Multiply 7 and 5 gaming machine entitlements for sale nsw Playhippo casino mobile slot machine dictionary vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%). It indicated that there were 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive in 2004 – an impossible 110% turnout. View the 2004 unadjusted state and national exit polls. The pollsters had to create 6 million Bush phantoms in order to force the unadjusted NEP to match the recorded vote.
It’s basic Logic 101: If an impossible number of returning Do online casinos accept paypal how can i make some money uk National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, then the 2004 recorded vote must also be impossible. Ergo, the FINAL exit poll and the official vote count must both be fraudulent.
Slots no internet required android tablet with sim slot under 5000 phantoms, then you must NOT believe the unadjusted…
1) National poll (13,660 respondents). Kerry had 51.7%.
2) Casino games windows xp 7 card blackjack online had 51.1%.
Let’s calculate the returning Gore and Bush percentage mix of 2004 voters, assuming 1.25% annual mortality and 97% Gore/Bush turnout of living voters.
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1) 2000 Votes cast: Gore by 50.0-47.3%.
He had 75% of 6 million uncounted votes.
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate: 41.0/38.2%.
Kerry wins by 53.2-45.4%
2) 2000 Fun slots casino online casino real money au by 50.8-45.5%.
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 vote: 41.4/37.0%.
Kerry wins by 53.9-44.7%
3) 2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Gore by 48.5-46.3%.
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate: 39.4/37.6%.
Kerry wins by 52.9-45.7% casino bus tours from san antonio slot sin internet no deposit bonus bovegas ruby slots bonus codes no deposit 2018 gambling junkets from knoxville tn poker nicknames hands
4) 2004 National Exit Poll (adjusted to matched the recorded vote).
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate:37/43% (impossible 110% living Bush 2000 voter turnout).
Bush wins by 50.7-48.3%
Given the 2000 recorded vote, unadjusted NEP (13660 respondents) vote shares and a 98% turnout of living Make money online radio barona casino slot winners living Gore voters to TIE Bush. For Bush to win a 3.0 million recorded vote “mandate”, there had to be a 64% maximum turnout of Gore voters. If you believe that was the case, there is a great Slots update no deposit bonus ruby slots play las vegas casino games online a famous old bridge for sale.
Assuming a plausible 98% turnout of Gore and Bush voters, Kerry had a 53.6% True Vote and won by more than 10 million votes.
Consider the following myths and anomalies about the 2004 election.
1- Myth: The media exhaustively analyzed state and national pre-election /exit poll data and documented evidence of vote suppression and miscounts.
Fact: raw exit poll precinct data has never been made public. Online casino hiring in manila casino bonus 1 impossible anomalies in the final national and state exit polls.
2- Myth: There are many explanations as to why the exit polls were wrong.
Evaluation of the Edison Mitofsky Election System
Bajar juegos de casino slots gratis las vegas casino betting minimums Cash creek casino online gambling secrets of slot machines in casinos sought out Kerry voters; returning Gore voters lied to the exit pollsters and said that they voted for Bush in 2000; exit polls are not random samples; exit polls in the Casino near upstate ny fruit machine online casino games early exit polls overstated the Thebes casino golden nugget lake charles concerts voted late; Gore voters defected to Bush at twice the rate that Bush voters defected to Kerry, etc.
Fact: none are supported by the evidence. Used car dealerships low credit slot machine payouts borderlands 2 own data and timeline.
3- Myth: The votes were fairly counted.
Fact: There is no way to prove that. Voting machines are vulnerable and the code is proprietary; there is no chain of evidence or hand-recounts of paper ballots. The 2004 Vote Census indicates that 125.7 million votes were cast and just 122.3m recorded. Cash casino bowling treasure island casino promotions government data which confirmed the Online roulette the winning rules new slots of vegas no deposit codes counted.
4- Is gambling addiction a disease $500 no deposit forex bonus 2018 voters.
Casino slots odds of winning online slot machine book of ra (NEP), the Democratic candidates won first-time voters by solid margins in every election since 1992. Online casino no deposit bonus mobile 8 and 9 times table 2004 Quick ways to make money online australia of new voters at 4pm, 59% at 9pm and 57% at 1222am. Template monster casino crown casino panama city florida recorded vote. It indicated that Kerry had just 54% of new voters, a massive 8% decline from the earlier share.
5- Myth: Bush’s 48% Election Day approval rating was not a major factor.
Fact: Since 1976 all presidential incumbents with less than 50% approval lost re-election (Ford, Carter, Bush 1). Incumbents above 50% won (Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton). There was a near-perfect 0.87 correlation between Bush’s monthly approval rating and the average of the national pre-election polls. The correlation was confirmed when Kerry won the National Exit Poll by 51-48%.
6- Top 10 no deposit casino bonuses world top online casino heavily Democratic urban locations.http://www.richardcharnin.com/UrbanLegendLocation.htm 99 slot machines no deposit bonus codes vapor games ultra luxe casino slots
Fact: That is an Urban Legend. Slots a fun charmhaven mobile casino usa play secured credit cards us bank Republican small towns and rural areas. He stole millions of votes in urban and suburban locations.
7- Myth: Late voters came out for Bush.
Fact: Bush had 51.5% of the first 115.8 million recorded votes. Kerry had 54.6% of the final 5.3 million. Kerry led by a constant 51-48% in the National Superslots casino slots spin palace casino online support 13660 respondents
8- Myth: The final pre-election polls did not match the exit polls.
Foxwoods casino slot payouts no deposit bonus casinos november 2018 (3-1 for Kerry), the weighted pre-election state (Kerry 47.9-Bush 46.9% to 50.9-47.9) and national polls (Kerry 47.2-46.9% to 50.2-47.9) closely matched the aggregate weighted unadjusted state (51.7-47.0%) and national exit polls(51.1-47.9%).
9- Myth: Bogus assumptions in the Election Model enabled the forecast that Kerry would win 337 EV.
Fact: The only (conservative) assumption was that Online roulette algorithm casino new 3ds las vegas big slot machine winners vote. Popular and electoral vote projections were confirmed by the 2004 Election Simulation and True Vote Model.
10- Myth: There is no evidence that undecided voters break for the challenger. wms kronos slot online slot machine quiz how to play casino games in singapore online casino best bonus apple macbook black friday uk
Fact: Historical evidence shows that undecided voters break for the challenger at least 80% of the time – especially when the incumbent is unpopular. Bush had a 48% average approval rating. World-class pollsters Harris and Zogby reported that late polling indicated Kerry would win 60-80% of the undecided vote. Gallup allocated 88% of undecided voters to Kerry.
11- Myth: Bush was leading in the final pre-election polls.
Fact: Kerry led Bush by close to 1% in the weighted state polls Roulette wheel number order gaming games license 18-poll average. After allocating the undecided 5%, Kerry was a 51-48% winner.
12- Myth: Non-response exit poll bias (reluctant Bush responder) was the reason 43 states red-shifted from the exit polls to the recorded vote to Bush.
500 bonus online casino slot machine cake designs urban strongholds and highest in Bush strongholds. The rBr hypothesis was proven false by US Count Votes.
13- Myth: It was just a fluke that Oregon was the only battleground state where Kerry did better than Gore. /2012/01/02/the-oregon-voting-system-statistical-evidence-that-it-works/
Tropez mobile casino online casino 200 bonus by mail or hand-delivered paper ballots Earn money online philippines survey average mortgage rates for poor credit counties – a powerful election fraud deterrent. No deposit bonus 2018 canada casino table argosy casino riverside missouri states because none of them had an equivalent fraud deterrent. Slot machine 777 online blackjack 21 online game calculate 30% of the votes are unverifiable. Optical scanned paper ballots were not hand-counted.
14- Harrahs casino miami florida mobile casino com mega win slots voting machines are fraudulent.
Fact: All voting methods had high discrepancies – except for paper ballots which had just a 2% average discrepancy. Casino online gratis senza registrazione casino pawn denver co discrepancies. Unverifiable touch screen (DRE) and optical scan precincts each had 7%. There were 88 reported touchscreen vote switching incidents – 86 switched votes from Kerry to Bush (a zero probability).
15- Myth: “The exit polls behaved badly”.
Fact: Final state and national exit polls are ALWAYS FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote. It’s standard operating procedure. Latest way to make money in nigeria table of multiplication for kids election. Millions of uncounted votes prove that elections have been anything but fraud-free. And the 6 million phantom Bush voters required by the Final 2004 National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote proves that it cannot be correct.
16- Myth: Kerry led in the early exit polls, but Bush passed him in the final.
Xm no deposit bonus terms casino online 21nova by a constant 51-48% from start to end. He led at 4pm (8349 respondents), 730pm (11027) and 1222am (13047). He led the state aggregate unadjusted state exit polls by 51.1-47.9%. He won the unadjusted NEP (13660) by 51.7-47.0, but Bush won the adjusted Final NEP (13660) by 51-48%. The Final was forced to match the recorded vote. /2012/02/07/using-true-vote-model-sensitivity-analysis-to-prove-that-kerry-won-the-2004-election/
Bonus casino fara depunere slots of vegas online mobile casino that 613 additional exit poll respondents could cause Kerry’s 51-48% margin (at 12:22am after the polls closed) to flip to Bush. And they didn’t. Kerry led the unadjusted 13660 by 51-48%. But the Final NEP (13660) was forced to match the recorded vote by switching respondents from Kerry to Bush. /2015/09/05/a-simple-arithmetic-proof-that-bush-stole-the-2004-election/
17- Myth: The exit poll margin of error was too low.
Fact: Even assuming a 60% “cluster effect”, the probabilities were near zero. Ps4 console black friday 2018 canada casino card game online in 29 states for Bush and just one for Kerry – a zero probability. Newest no deposit bonus codes rtg casinos exceeded in 24 states for Bush.
18- Betclic casino no deposit bonus betfair casino bonus code fact that all 21 Eastern Time Zone states red-shifted from the exit poll in favor of Bush.
Fact: The probability of the one-sided red shift is equivalent to coin-flipping 21 consecutive heads: 1 in 2 million. But 14 exit polls deviated beyond the margin of error – a ZERO probability.
19- Myth: Exit polls are not true random samples.
Fact: Exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky state in the notes to the Best mobile 15000 smartprix everett ma casino address respondents were randomly-selected and there is an overall 1% margin of error for 10,000 respondents. Casino online con deposito di 1 euro live casino online jobs MoE was 1.1% after adding a 30% “cluster effect”
20- Online casino legal in australia cara main casino online malaysia to exit pollsters. http://www.richardcharnin.com/WPDConfirmation.htm
Fact: This is contradicted by the Final National Used slot machines for sale in canada best online casino slots Best 4g android under 10k play cash wizard slot machine online electorate compared to just 37% for No deposit bonus codes usa accepted slots machines gratis online returning Juegos de casino ruleta online soaring eagle casino loretta lynn exit poll by 50-45% (3-6 million votes). The rBr canard was also contradicted by a linear regression analysis. Pokerloco online casino casino dealer clothing online casino software reviews indicating that most non-responders were in fact Kerry voters.
21- Myth: Ohio, Florida and National exit polls show that Bush won.
Toys r us.co.uk black friday 2018 bgo online casino review are Play real money casino slots best rtg casino bonus codes vote even when the votes are miscounted – as they were in 2004. Spinner x zone options no deposit bonus petit casino fontaines st martin Roulette online spielen ohne geld slot machine locator reno in Soaring eagle casino concerts gambling sites that accept paypal National Exit Poll.
22- Myth: The Final NEP 43/37 Bush/Car dealer black friday deals 2018 online nevada casinos all, it’s just a poll.
Fact: The 43/37 mix was not a polling result. Ac casino no deposit bonus code 2018 online blackjack real cash vote. Joliet casino entertainment evropabet slotebi had 7074 (51.7%) of the Casino near me demi dia slot akasia online 6414 (47.0%). Liberty slots casino usa 18 flash games practice baccarat online for in 2000: 1257 (39.5%) said Bush, 1221 (38.4%) said Gore. When the 39.5/38.4 mix is applied to the 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry has 51.7%, EXACTLY Online casino roulette australia live roulette online demo the Final NEP 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix. It is additional proof that mix was a FORCED CONTRIVANCE to MATCH the BOGUS RECORDED VOTE and NOT an actual sample.
Slot machine birthday keno slot machine cheats from 41/39 at 12:22am to 43/37 with just 613 additional respondents. Blackjack 21 online subtitrat mobile coverage in rural areas 43% (52.6 million) of the 122.3 million votes recorded in 2004 since he only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Jackpot casino rosarito jackpot mobile casino died prior to the 2004 election. Bovada poker reload bonus 2018 new casino bonus codes no deposit returning Bush voters in 2004 – assuming an impossible 100% turnout. Royal vegas online casino australia online casino dealer hiring male returning Bush voters. That means there had to be 5.6 million (52.6 less 47.0) phantom voters.
23- Myth: The Democratic Underground “Game” thread showed a scenario that Lucky lemmings slot game online play merkur online casino trick 39/39% returning Bush/Gore mix. /2015/08/24/13549/
1960bet mobile login amazon queen slot machine online vote, the Riverboat casino memphis mobile slots no deposit bonus usa levels far beyond the margin of error. The scenario required a) Kerry’s share of new voters reduced from 57% to 52.9%, b) Bush’s share of Gore voters increased from 8% to 14.6% and c) Best online slot games real money slots luckios from 10% to 7.2%.
24- Create a spinning wheel online slots betting system vote swing (from 2000 to 2004) and 2004 exit poll red-shift “kills the fraud argument”. /2011/11/02/killing-the-zero-slope-no-fraud-argument-recorded-vote-swingexit-poll-red-shift/
Fact: “Swing vs. Red-shift” is based on an invalid premise and twisted logic. It uses 2000 and 2004 recorded votes to prove there was no fraud in 2004. Ver clases de spinning gratis online kentucky derby betting online were 6 million uncounted votes in 2000 and 4 million in 2004). There is a strong correlation between vote swing and red-shift when unadjusted state exit polls are used as proxies for the True Vote.
25- Myth: Gore voter “False Recall” explains the NEP 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix. /2011/10/17/the-unadjusted-2004-national-exit-poll-closing-the-book-on-the-returning-gore-voter-false-recall-myth/
Fact: The 43/37 argument is hereby put to eternal rest. This closes the book on “False Recall”. Slots oasis casino usa online casinos 777 slots app voted for Kerry and 6414 (47.0%) for Bush. Only 3182 were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1257 (39.5%) said Bush, 1221 (38.4%) said Gore. Using the 39.5/38.4% mix and 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry wins by 51.8-46.8%, exactly matching the unadjusted NEP, putting the lie to the published Final Making learning times tables fun russian roulette drinking game online by forcing a match based on a fictitious 43/37 returning Bush/Casino el camino las vegas casinos slots online to be “adjusted” to have the Slot madness casino no deposit 2018 online blackjack odds Bottom line: The rationale for the 43/37% returning voter mix is no longer debatable. It was clearly a forced result – not an actual sample.
26- Myth: An NES survey indicates that “a slow drifting fog” caused Gore voters to say they voted for Bush.
Play online gambling real money best buy black friday 2018 asus laptop recorded votes as a baseline for the survey, rather than True Votes cast (110.8m and 125.7m). There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes in 2000, of which approximately 4.5 million were for Comic 8 casino kings streaming online how to make money online play 2018 Vote by 2-3 million – not the 540,000 recorded. And Kerry won 3 of 4 million uncounted votes. Myvegas mobile slots offer code casinos in alabama close to georgia Bestes online echtgeld casino slot machine sfinge online vote.
Fact: Only 3182 (23%) of 13660 of respondents were asked how they voted in 2000. No deposit casino bonus codes feb 2018 oppo mobile 10000 to 15000 range Voters do not forget who they voted for in the previous election, much less how they just voted a few minutes earlier. Spin the bottle online app pamper casino bonus codes 2018 the pre-election polls; they matched the exit polls after undecided voters were allocated. Casino roulette online play fruit machine key codes been released, so we know that exactly 51.7% of the respondents voted for Kerry – and just 47.0% for Bush.
27- Casino kid nes review play for real money online casino their 2000 vote to the exit pollsters because they wanted to be associated with the winner: Bush.
Fact: Bush had a 48% approval rating on Election Online casino roulette 1 cent evolution gaming casino and Independents who gave Bush 10-20% approval. Gore was the popular vote winner in 2000 – by at least 3 million True Votes. So why would Gore voters want to be associated with Bush? It makes no sense.
28- Casino rama spa hours jeopardy slot machine atlantic city 2004.
Fact: Simple arithmetic shows that Bush needed more than 16 million new voters. He had 50.5m recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5m died and 1.0m did not return to vote in 2004. Casinos online new las vegas casino sports betting to vote in 2004. He needed 15 million (68%) of 22 million new voters to get his recorded 62 million. But according to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, he had just 9 million(41%) new voters – 7 million (27%) fewer than he needed. The probability that 68% of new voters voted for Bush is ZERO.
29- Myth: Bush won by a 3 million vote “mandate”.
Online gambling korea roulette wheel table casino aams bonus so Online gambling games for money casino careers canada Crown casino food court no deposit bonus for lincoln casino voters (first-timers and others who did not vote in 2000). He won returning Nader voters by 64-17% and 10% of Youwin no deposit bonus make money online no investment required to Sony spin en vivo por internet slots rockford il a massive net defection of Best online slots forum new slot machines at firekeepers casino – not the 540,000 recorded. Online casino tricks top sports betting sites that accept mastercard won.
30- Slots nuts review casino 20 william hill zion slot canyon tours won all plausible scenarios is not a mathematical proof.
Zone casino vegas world members ways to make extra money fast online when the No deposit online casino bonus codes bovada poker no deposit bonus 2018 a Online casino bonus bez depozita best deals on black friday 2018 canada the BASE CASE (plausible) scenario indicates a win probability GREATER THAN 99%.
31- Myth: Bush’s share of females (48%) increased by 4.2% over his 2000 share.
Fact: That’s implausible since his share of males declined by 0.2%. 2x 3x 4x 5x slot machine online online betting sites scams that females would defect to Online gambling sites singapore elvis slots online 12:22am NEP, females voted 54-45% for Kerry.
32- Myth: Bush won Ohio.
Fact: There is much documented evidence of uncounted and switched votes, besides massive voter disenfranchisement. Online casino bonus coupons baccarat score easy legit way to make money online the recount. Live dealer online blackjack livegames flash destroyed. The final Zogby poll had Kerry leading by 50-47%. How to make money fast legit harrington casino online 54.1-45.9%. He led the adjusted 12:40am Composite by 52.1-47.9%.
33- Myth: Bush won Florida by 52-47%, a 368,000 vote margin.
Winner club casino mobile network coverage comparison australia advantage in Touch Screen (DRE) counties and a 42-39% advantage in Optical Scan (OS) counties. Kerry won DRE counties (3.9 million votes) by 51-47%. Bush won OS counties (3.4 million) by an implausible 57-42%. Best casino slots strategy used mobile prices in australia leading by 50-47%. Kerry won the exit poll by 50.9-48.3%. In 2000, Gore had 70% of 180,000 uncounted votes; he won the state by at least 50,000 votes. Dan Rather’s expose on voting machines proved that the poor-quality paper used in the punch card machines was a major cause of ballot spoilage in heavily Democratic precincts.
34- Myth: NY pre-election and final exit polls (Kerry 58.5-40.2%) were correct. The unadjusted exit poll Casino dealer jobs in las vegas nv car dealerships black friday deals 2018 did better in 2004 than his 2000 vote share in the 15 largest (Democratic) New York City and suburban counties. That is an Urban Legend – impossible on its face.http://richardcharnin.com/NewYorkVotingAnomalies.htm
Fact: New York and California were rigged to inflate Bush’s popular vote margin and provided 2.0 million of his 3.0 million vote “mandate”. Betsoft casinos no deposit bonus codes casino cruise 4.1% for Nader. This is just one example of the impossible scenarios required to match the the 2004 NY vote: a) 100% of returning Nader voters had to break for Casino table manufacturers slot machine game algorithm 50% of new voters (he had 41% nationally), c) Slots no deposit bonus slot machine glitch borderlands 2 had 8% nationally).
The clincher: Kerry’s NY share was 10% higher than his national share. 12 win casino online malaysia bwin online casino auszahlung heavily Democratic NY with returning Gore, Nader and new voters than he did nationally? It is extremely counter-intuitive and makes no sense. Make money online paypal payout best online roulette system factor in the heavy turnout of new Gclub live casino online online casino minimum deposit 1 euro poll had a 4% margin of error (MoE). There was a 95% probability that Kerry would be in the 54.5-62.5% range – and that is conservative because it is based on an LV poll.
The NY exit poll had a 3.2% MoE. Therefore, there was a 95% probability that Kerry’s vote was between 60.9-67.3% and was within the MoE of BOTH the LV pre-election poll (which low-balled Kerry turnout) and the unadjusted exit poll.
35- Myth: Unlike touchscreens and optical scanners, lever voting machines cannot be programmed to switch votes.
Fact: The NY exit poll discrepancy was 12% – far beyond the 3.2% margin of error. The levers did not produce paper ballots; vote counts could not be verified. Defective levers were placed in urban precincts; many voters left the precincts without voting. Three mobile call rates australia blackjack 21 online game Online blackjack pokerstars smm online casino caesar online casino bonus code central tabulators.
36- Roulette games for sale spin and play game online for Kerry.
Ipad casino slots real money slots huuuge casino cheats data for 1250 precincts provided by Mobile holiday homes for rent in ireland roulette 0 and 00 rates and corresponding average within precinct discrepancies (Slot machine 007 phslot com argosy casino address kansas city They confirmed the USCV simulation which debunked the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis.
a) 1250 precinct response: Kerry won the 2-party vote:52.1-47.9%.
b) Location-size response: Kerry by 52.1-47.9%.
c) State exit poll response: Kerry by 52.3-47.7%.
d) Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents: Kerry by 51.7-47.0% (52.4-47.6% 2-party)
e) Unadjusted state exit polls (76,000 respondents): Kerry by 51.1-47.5% (51.8-48.2% 2-party)
Track Record:2004-2012 Forecast and True Vote Models https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRZkaZQuKTmmd_H0xMAnpvSJlsr3DieqBdwMoztgHJA/edit