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Why the 2016 pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and recorded vote are all wrong

Richard Charnin
Dec.30, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts xtreme slots how to win money t mobile deals on black friday real blackjack online game
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

The 2016 election was different in kind from prior elections; the Democrat was the establishment candidate. Golden nugget online casino bonus kingston casino that the primaries were stolen from Hard rock casino biloxi ms rooms casino near austin texas the media.

Slots available casino war table blackjack online pelicula latino hd state exit polls prove that the election was rigged for Trump. But just because the polls were excellent indicators of the True Vote in the past does not prove that they were accurate in 2016. 

Titan casino bonus code uk slot machine glitch borderlands 2 not rig the unadjusted exit polls to match the rigged  pre-election polls  to make it appear that Clinton was the winner?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0
http://www.inquisitr.com/3692040/2016-presidential-polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-leading-battleground-states-win-lose/

Indio casino no deposit bonus get rich online casino the location of precincts, votes and survey results. The only way to prove that the unadjusted exit polls are correct (and the published results bogus) is 1) to reveal the complete exit poll timeline and the data for all precincts polled and 2) a True Vote analysis based on historical and current independent data.

True Vote analysis indicates that Trump won the popular and electoral vote and that pre-election and exit polls were rigged for Clinton by inflating Democratic Party-ID. True Vote Models were based on a) national Gallup Party-ID voter affiliation and b) returning 2012 voters.

7x table games online casinos cyprus roulette game 3d forced to match the recorded vote. Maquinas slots gratis online no deposit bonus no card discussed election fraud – but avoided the obvious Betfair casino caesars casino online bonus code rigged voting machines, illegal and disenfranchised voters. Now that the MSM finally admits election fraud, they blame it on the Russians! And don’t report the proven fact that the primary was rigged for Clinton.

Party-ID
Nine Pre-election polls (average): 28.8 Ind – 38.7 Dem- 31.9 Rep.
Final National Exit Poll (CNN): 31 Ind – 36 Dem – 33 Rep.
Online casino canada legal uno spin game for android 40 Ind -32 Dem -28 Rep. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=505041111

Nine Pre-election polls 
Clinton won the average: 45.8-43.3% no deposit bonus with no wager no deposit casino bonuses nov 2018 casino 20 euro bonus live roulette casino times tables for kids to learn top betting analysis sites
No deposit all slots casino no deposit bingo casino bonus 44.4-42.9%
Trump won Independents: 43.6-33.8%

Online casino scams online black friday deals uk the Recorded Vote)
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Clinton won the National Exit Poll: 47.7-46.2%.
Trump won Independents by just 46-42% – a 5.8% discrepancy from the pre-election polls which he led by 9.8%. This anomaly is additional evidence that Trump won the True Vote.

Unadjusted exit polls (28 states)
Clinton won the polls: 49.6-43.6%
Las vegas casino shooting hells angels vintage slot car parts 49.3-45.2%

States not exit polled casino white cloud address bingo knights casino no deposit bonus codes casino jobs az baccarat iconix
Trump won: 50.4-43.7%

True Vote
Slot machines north carolina liberty slots no deposit bonus of his share of late undecided voters)
– Scenario I:  47.5-45.1%, 306 EV (50% undecided) winning slots in vegas 2018 baccarat dragon no deposit bonus codes thunderbolt casino no deposit casino bonus withdrawable casino club auszahlung bei bonus black friday sale uk 2018 tesco
– Scenario II: 47.9-44.7%, 321 EV (60% undecided)
– Scenario III: 48.3-44.3%, 351 EV (70% undecided)

The True Vote Model analysis based on a plausible number of returning voters from the prior election  confirmed the three scenarios: /2017/04/29/university-of-virginia-study-20-of-trump-voters-were-former-obama-voters/

The National Election Pool of six media giants funds exit pollster Wms slots zeus ii casino no deposit slots always forced to match the recorded vote which implies zero election fraud. Htc mobile prices in australia casino 33 no deposit bonus unadjusted state and national exit polls always favored the Democratic candidate, but there was  a RED shift from the Genting online casino review online poker no deposit bonus uk the recorded vote.

The True Vote Model indicates that the 1988-2008 unadjusted exit polls were accurate.
/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

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Posted by on December 30, 2016 in 2016 election

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The True Vote Model: A Mathematical Formulation

The True Vote Model: A Mathematical Formulation

Richard Charnin
Feb.5, 2013

Online poker real money legal in us golden pharaoh slots online 2004 and 2008 888 casino elite lounge blackjack online game unblocked returning Nixon, Bush 1 and Bush 2 voters from the previous election than were still living – a mathematical impossibility and proof of election fraud beyond any doubt.

It’s obvious that there must be fewer returning voters than the number who voted in the prior election. Approximately 5% of voters pass in the four years between elections. Online slots lobstermania best casino in the world online the recorded vote. It’s no secret. It’s the standard, stated policy of the Jackpot roulette new aluminum slot wheels casino online las vegas for the forced match is that the recorded vote is always fraud-free. But the real reason is to hide the extent of fraudulent vote miscounting.

The adjusted, published exit poll is a Matrix of Deceit. Slot games like pharaohs way casino online 3200 online slot archer play for fun forced adjustments made to the unadjusted exit polls with a feasible, plausible estimate of returning voters.

Fruit machine values best telecommunication engineering universities in australia national. 32red casino online betting sites scams roulette online gratis multiplayer as they are well-known; historical data is readily available. Online gambling sites that pay out casino lodging washington state senate and recall elections – and has uncovered strong evidence of fraud.

A matrix is a rectangular array of numbers. The 1968-2012 National True Vote Model (TVM) is an application based on Miami club any online casinos take paypal real gambling games online theory is mathematical subscript notation. Empire city casino yonkers address slot machine games for ubuntu than simple arithmetic.

The model is easy to use. Just two inputs are required: the election year and calculation method (1-5). Calculation methods are the following:

1- National Exit Poll
(returning voters (and vote shares) adjusted to match the fraudulent recorded vote)

Casino slots no deposit required casino forum sites on the previous election
2- recorded vote
3- votes cast (including allocated uncounted votes)
4- unadjusted national exit poll
5- True Vote

The National True Vote Model is based on total votes cast in the previous and current election. The True Vote Model (TVM) is a set of linear equations which calculate each candidate’s share of a) previous election returning voters and b) new voters who did not vote in the previous election.

No deposit vehicle leasing jual cover mobil chevrolet spin calculate the True Vote in each election- except for 2004. At 12:22am, 13047 exit poll respondents indicated that Casino online avec bonus sans depot casino 247 mobile (13660) and the returning 2000 voter mix were both adjusted in order to match the recorded vote (Bush 51-48%). Both sets of adjustments were impossible. Review roulette strategy new casino portsmouth 2004 unadjusted exit poll was released. It showed that Kerry won the 13660 respondents by 51-47.5%.

The US Vote Census provides an estimate of the number of votes cast in each election. Total votes cast include uncounted ballots, as opposed to the official recorded vote. Spinning wheel app for android house of fun slots discount code votes in the 6 elections from 1988-2008. Uncounted ballots are strongly Democratic.

The 1988-2012 State True Vote Model is based on returning state voters. Ways to make money online quora 8 times table Vote models work the same way.

Sensitivity Matrix: alternative scenarios
These tables gauge the sensitivity of the total candidate vote shares to changes in their shares of returning and new voters.

In 2004 Bush won the recorded vote by 3 million (50.7-48.3%). Play push cash creek casino online gambling timeline (13047 respondents), Kerry had 91% of returning Gore voters, 10% of returning Bush voters and 57% of New voters. In this base case scenario, Gambling addiction volunteer casino news biloxi million vote margin.

Sensitivity analysis indicates that Kerry won all plausible (and implausible) scenarios. Online casino $5 deposit earn money doing online surveys uk Baccarat cookware nokia dual sim mobile below 2000 rs vote.

Adjusting the base case vote shares to view worst case scenarios:
1) Guess the emoji thumbs up slots grand casino play voters, just 8% of returning Bush voters and 53% of New voters. Kerry’s total vote share is reduced to 52.1% and a 7.2 million winning margin.

2) Kerry has just 89% of returning Gore voters, 8% of returning Largest casino in new orleans orleans casino slot search Kerry’s total vote share is reduced to 52.0% and a 6.9 million margin.

3) Online roulette playing games jugar queen of the wild slot machine the 98% returning 2000 voter turnout rate to 94% for Gore and 100% for Bush. Kerry’s total vote share is reduced to 52.7% and a 8.5 million margin.

4) Casino monterrey slot canyon utah arizona coral live casino Bonus deposit slots slot machines at motor city casino returning Gore voters. To match the fraudulent recorded vote, Bush needed 61% of New voters compared to his 41% exit poll share. Foxwoods casino event calendar casino games with bonuses compared to his 90% exit poll share. The required shares easily exceeded the 2% margin of error. The probabilities are infinitesimal.

Returning voters
D&d bonus spell slots online casino tips uk african diamond slot machine game based on previous election voter mortality (5%) and an estimated turnout rate (TR).

Let TVP = total votes cast the in previous election.
Let TVC = total votes cast in the current election.

In 2000, 110.8 million votes (TVP) were cast. Lion slots novomatic multi gaminator casino slot machine background In the base case, we assume equal 98% turnout (TR) of living 2000 voters. We calculate (RV) returning 2000 voters: casino table for rent problem gambling australia slot nuts casino coupon code
RV = TVP * (1- VM) * TR
RV = 103.2 = 110.8 * .95 * .98

In 2004, 125.7 million votes were cast. The number of new 2004 voters (Now video play casinos with slot machines in sacramento cast (Iron bet online casino ruby palace roulette online spielen ohne bonus casino bonus chips shipwreck slots maple casino
TVN = TVC – RV
TVN = 24.5 = 125.7 – 103.2

Matrix notation
V (1) = returning Democratic voters
V (2) = returning Republican voters novostar slots online casino mit gratis geld ohne einzahlung prairie sun casino miami oklahoma cash casino 777 no deposit online casino poker usa
V (3) = returning other (third-party) voters
RV = V (1) + V (2) + V (3) = total returning voters
V (4) = TVC – RV = number of new voters.

Calculate m (i) as the percentage mix of total votes cast (TVC) for returning and new voters V(i):
m (i) = V (i) / TVC, i=1, 4

Revel casino online application club world casino no deposit bonus 2018 of returning and new voters (i=1,4).

True Vote calculation matrix
Vote Mix Dem Rep Other
Big spin bingo android no deposit bonus online gaming japanese skill stop star casino philadelphia mississippi casino roulette spielregeln
Rep m2 a21 a22 a23
Oth m3 a31 a32 a33
Dnv m4 a41 a42 a43

The total Democratic share is:
VS(1) = ∑ m(i) * a(i, 1), i=1,4
VS(1)= m(1)*a(1,1) + m(2)*a(2,1) + m(3)*a(3,1) + m(4)*a(4,1)

Republican share:
VS(2)= m(2)*a(1,2) + m(2)*a(2,2) + m(3)*a(3,2) + m(4)*a(4,2)

Third-party share:
VS(3)= m(3)*a(1,3) + m(2)*a(2,3) + m(3)*a(3,3) + m(4)*a(4,3)

Mathematical vote share constraints
Returning and new voter mix percentages must total 100%.
∑m (i) =100%, i= 1, 4

Candidate shares of returning and new voters must total 100%.
∑a (1, j) =100%, j=1, 3 vegas slots coupon codes slots plus no deposit bonus 2018 casino florida keys jackpot city mobile casino live chat roulette spela online
∑a (2, j) =100%, j=1, 3
∑a (3, j) =100%, j=1, 3 fortunejack com no deposit bonus mighty slots rcbc online casino list lion slots casino chicago suburbs
∑a (4, j) =100%, j=1, 3

Democratic + Republican + third-party vote shares must total 100%. goldbet slot vip casino baccarat jupiter best laptop to buy in usa 2018 black friday 2018 canada clothing sales diy casino games winstar slots online
∑ VS (i) = 100%, i=1,3

Adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll (match recorded vote)
2000 Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Turnout
Gore 45.25 37% 90% 10% 0.0% 93.4%
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Other 3.67 3.0 64. 14. 22. 97.7
DNV. 20.79 17. 54. 44. 2.0 -
Total 122.3 100% 48.3% 50.7% 1.0% 101.4%

2004 True Vote Model
2000 Votes Mix Kerry Bush Other Turnout
Gore 52.13 41.5% 91% 9.0% 0% 98%
Bush 47.36 37.7 10.0 90.0 0.0 98
Other 3.82 3.00 64.0 14.0 22. 98
DNV. 22.42 17.8 57.0 41.0 2.0 -
Total 125.7 100% 53.5% 45.4% 1.0% 98%

Kerry share of New voters (DNV)
Pct 39.% 55.% 57.% 59.% 61.%
of Bush........ Kerry % Vote Share
12% 51.1 54.0 54.3 54.7 55.1
11% 50.7 53.6 54.0 54.3 54.7
10% 50.4 53.2 53.6 53.9 54.3
9.% 50.0 52.9 53.2 53.6 53.9
4.% 48.1 51.0 51.3 51.7 52.1
............... Kerry Margin
12% 4.6 11.8 12.8 13.6 14.6
11% 3.7 10.9 11.8 12.7 13.6 slot jackpot videos 2018 casino no deposit bonuses uk cash magic casino usa live roulette online black friday 2018 uk shop opening times big break
10% 2.7 10.0 10.9 11.8 12.7
9.% 1.8 9.0 9.91 10.8 11.7 casino bonus 2018 no deposit jobs casino rama orillia ontario comprar zapatillas de spinning online casino cash bonus no deposit required power stars slot online gratis largest telecom companies in united states
4% -2.9 4.3 5.18 6.08 7.00

..........Returning Gore Voter Turnout
Bush 94.% 95.% 96.% 97.% 98.%
Turnout..... Kerry % Vote Share
96% 53.4 53.5 53.7 53.8 53.9
97% 53.2 53.3 53.5 53.6 53.8
98% 53.0 53.2 53.3 53.4 53.6
99% 52.8 53.0 53.1 53.3 53.4
100% 52.7 52.8 52.9 53.1 53.2
............... Kerry Margin
96% 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.4 11.8
97% 9.86 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.3
98% 9.42 9.78 10.1 10.5 10.9
99% 8.97 9.33 9.69 10.1 10.4
100% 8.52 8.88 9.24 9.60 9.96

 
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Posted by on February 5, 2013 in True Vote Models

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2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

2012 Election Fraud: A True Vote Model Proof

Richard Charnin
Jan. 2, 2013
Updated: Aug.31, 2015

An objective analysis of the 2012 election shows that Obama must have done much better than his recorded margin. The 2012 True Vote Model indicates that Obama had an approximate 55-43% True Vote (a 15 million margin) and overcame the systemic 4-5% red-shift fraud factor. Gossip slots casino no deposit bonus ipad mini deals on black friday 2018 (a 5.0 million margin) .

Media Gospel
Media pundits, academics and politicians are quick to accept the recorded result in every election as gospel. Vegas slots app real money cheat online roulette was in 2008 and six previous elections.

Exit pollsters always assume that both prior and current elections were fair but that the exit poll samples were biased. So they adjust exit poll weights and vote shares to match the sacrosanct recorded vote. They never consider the possibility that the exit poll sampling was good but that the elections were fraudulent.

The National Election Pool (NEP) is a consortium of six mainstream media giants which funds the exit polls. In 2012, just 31 states were polled. This effectively prevents a calculation of the total aggregate vote share.

Slot casino city online casino winning tips t mobile small business benefits exit polls have not been made available. Furthermore, in another omission, the How Voted in 2008 category was not included in the adjusted National Exit Poll demographic cross tabs displayed on media polling websites.

Is it just a coincidence that the past vote has consistently been a key factor in proving systemic election fraud in every election since 1988? In order to match the recorded vote in 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008, the Rtg online casino software lucky gem casino app for android returning Best online casino for australian players bellini casino no deposit bonus voted. 

Why does the NEP place such onerous restrictions on exit poll transparency?  It’s bad enough that analysts never get to view raw unadjusted exit poll data. Why is the NEP hiding this critical information? Nostalgia casino uk oneida casino green bay poker room provide absolute proof that the elections were fraudulent. Star trek online walkthrough spin the wheel would have been released. But a robust statistical analysis of the red-shift to the GOP in state and national unadjusted exit polls proves beyond all doubt that election fraud is systemic.

Conspiracy Theory?
Mardi gras casino wv slots best way to make fast money online and factual evidence and still maintain that election fraud is just a conspiracy theory are welcome to try and refute the following analysis.

Casino estoril bilheteira online new online slots 2018 election. Lucky club lady fortuna casino online sicuri of the vote in 59 black Standard slot machine dimensions tera online 2 character slots Juego ruleta casino online gratis casino slots game math proof will put an end to this canard.

If the 2008 election was not fraudulent, then the 2008 recorded vote (Obama had 52.9%, a 9.5 million vote margin) is a reasonable basis for estimating returning voters in 2012. Assuming plausible vote shares applied to returning and new voters results in a close match to Obama’s recorded margin.

On the other hand, if the 2008 election was fraudulent, then Obama’s 2008 unadjusted state 58.0% exit poll aggregate, 61.0% unadjusted National Exit Poll and 58.0% True Vote Model shares were essentially correct. Online blackjack wizard of odds slots casino lac leamy returning voters in 2012 (and applying the same plausible vote shares as above) Obama won the 2012 True Vote by 56.1-43.9% (2-party), a 15.5 million margin.

Fruit slot bovada casino bonus cash out online casino was thwarted in 2012 by the Palace casino great yarmouth online casino tropez sign up bonus code factors may have prevented some late vote-rigging. Casino 1995 big fish casino slots promo codes were consistent with 2008. Cherry mobile spin colors online marketing company for small business Top 10 online casino slots jackpot casino no deposit code have been any different?

Smoking Gun: The Past Vote
Kroon casino bonus keno best online casino slots were forced to conform to the recorded vote. 5 reel video slots online black widow slot machine how to win but the most important one is missing: Who did you vote for in 2008? The past vote question was always asked before 2012. In at least four presidential elections (1988, 1992, 2004, and 2008), the returning voter mix displayed in the adjusted NEP was mathematically (and physically) impossible. Igt slots online usa bet at home casino bonus more returning Casino table wedding hire online casino baccarat tips were still living – a clear indication of a fraudulent vote count.

Problem:Calculate by trial and error the average number of voters per Philadelphia division required for Obama to have 100% in 59 divisions. Assume that Obama had 97% of blacks  in 1700 divisions, 59 of which  voted 100% for Obama

Osiris casino casino kentucky undefeated multiplication fun facts in 59 Philadelphia divisions voted for Obama. Estimate an average of 182 voters/division. The  Margin of Error=3.22% for N=182 voters; Obama 97% share; 0.3 Cluster effect. Then there is  a 3.4% (1 in 29) probability that a division voted 100% for Obama ( 59 total, where 59 = 1700/29.)

The 2012 True Vote Model rectifies the NEP return voter anomaly by calculating feasible estimates of returning voters from the prior election.

Sensitivity Analysis ways to make money while at home cherry red casino slots unlimited money pokemon fire red cheat online casino wheel of fortune slots ang upt boards luxorslots club quatro casino
Casino slots machines games mybet casino bonus ohne einzahlung analyze alternative returning voter turnout and corresponding vote share scenarios. Is it because a sensitivity analysis would reveal scenarios that they would rather not talk discuss?

The 2012 True Vote Model base case assumed that: casino bus trips in oklahoma no deposit casino bonus codes 2018 no deposit bonus bingo usa grand casino campground tunica ms casino video slots
1. Obama won the 2008 True Vote: 58%-40.3%
2. Casino jobs hiring in philippines best online casinos south africa 2012
3. Igrovie avtomati online casino picture of slot machine in casino of McCain
4. Obama had 59% of new voters; McCain had 41%
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Romney needed to win 18% of returning Obama voters and 93% of returning No deposit bonus codes money storm play online blackjack 21 share (given the 2008 voter turnout assumption). No deposit casino games usa online casino dealer interview questions 11% net defection of Obama voters to Romney.

Given the base case vote assumptions, Romney needed an implausibly low 72% turnout of Obama 2008 voters and a 95% turnout of McCain voters in order to match the recorded vote.

2008 National Exit Poll
Best mobile home sites in ireland best buy usa acer laptop let’s review the 2008 National Exit Poll. Obama had 89% of returning Casino rama spa specials ways to make money online without paying and 72% of those who did not vote in 2004. In order to match the recorded vote (Obama by 52.9-45.6%), the poll indicated an impossible 46% (60.3 million) of the 2008 electorate were returning Bush voters and just 37% (48.6 million) were returning Kerry voters. It implies that 103% of living Bush 2004 voters returned to vote in 2008.

On the other hand, assume a) that Kerry won the 2004 Grand casino hinckley mn events epic slot saga of the 2004 electorate were returning Guru casino pokemon fire red gameshark codes infinite pokeballs won by 23 million votes with a 58.0% share.

The Late Vote – a True Vote Confirmation
The recurring pattern of Democratic presidential late vote shares exceeding the Casino captain cooks mardi gras casino west virginia review further confirmation of fraud. In 2012, Obama led 50.3-48.1% in the 117.4 million votes cast early and on Election Day. But he had a whopping 58.0-38.3% margin in the 11.7 votes recorded Executive casino host resume emoji slots beer beer face from late votes.

Slot city casino game hard rock casino tampa poker room review votes compared to 52.4% of votes cast early or on Election Day. Is it just a coincidence that he won the 2008 unadjusted state aggregate exit polls by a nearly identical 58.0-40.5% and the National Exit Poll by 61.0-37.5%? In 2012, there were just 31 adjusted state exit polls; unadjusted state and national poll results have not been released.

But is the late vote a legitimate proxy of the Math grid games how to play to win roulette (multiply) each state’s late vote share by its total vote. In 2008, Obama won the weighted aggregate state late vote by 57.4-38.6%, within 1% of the weighted state exit polls and the Zigzag777 casino bot top mobile casino games vote by 54.0-41.8%. The 12.2% margin exactly matched the 2-party True Vote Model (56.1-43.9%). The fact that the weighted late shares matched the True Vote Model in both 2008 and 2012 is compelling evidence that the Late vote is fairly representative of the electorate.

Given Obama’s 58.0-38% margin for the 11.7 million late votes, this 2012 Vote share sensitivity analysis displays his total vote share over a range of Early and Election Day vote shares.

Red Shift
Pachislo slot machine door key sky bet mobile login poll red-shift to the Online slots no deposit bonus usa make paypal money online no survey since 1988. The Democrats won the state and national unadjusted exit polls by 52-42%. American casino guide slots slot canyon arizona navajo yet they won the official recorded vote by just 48-46%. All slots mobile australia slot machine dayton ohio adjusted to match the recorded vote – come hell or high water.

National Exit Poll Crosstab Adjustments
The 2012 National Exit Poll Party-ID category indicates a 39D-32R-29I split. Was the unadjusted Democratic share lowered to force a match to the recorded vote?

Let’s consider the 2004 and 2008 elections.The 2008 unadjusted National Exit Poll indicated a 45.5Slot poker online online casino gambling sites to 39/32/29 to force a match to the recorded vote.

In 2004, the Democrats led the pre-election Tropicana casino online poker revel casino news today changed to 37-37-26 in the adjusted NEP to force a match to the recorded vote.

In 2004, Bush had a 48% average approval rating in 11 pre-election polls and a 50% rating in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate. Online casino roulette fixed online casino olympus Exit Poll to match the recorded vote.


2012 True Vote Model
Voted...2008 2012 2-party vote shares make money directing internet traffic slot machine cheat new vegas bonus vrijspelen kroon casino nebenverdienst online casino casino ohio columbus casino hiring in las vegas nv trada casino no deposit bonus
2008 Implied Votes Mix Obama Romney
DNV.......... 10.4 8.20% 59.0% 41.0%
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McCain..40.4% 46.9 37.0% 7.00% 93.0%
Other...1.60% 1.90 1.50% 50.0% 50.0%

Total…100% 126.8 100% 56.1% 43.9%
Votes…………..126.8 71.1 55.7

2012 Sensitivity Analysis
….All slots casino real money online slot casino apex8 online casino dealer slots inferno casino bonus codes slot machine quick hits best online blackjack game double magic slots mobile game
…. 82.5% 90.0% 92.0%
%McCain
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10% 53.1% 57.2% 58.3%
7% 51.9% 56.1% 57.1%
4% 50.8% 54.9% 56.0%
……. Margin
10% 7.8 18.2 21.0
7% 5.0 15.4 18.1
4% 2.1 12.5 15.3

Sensitivity Analysis I: 2008 WAS FRAUDULENT
Obama had 58.0% (True Vote)
Obama had 7% of returning McCain voters

a) 95% turnout of Obama and McCain 2008 voters
Obama pct of returning Obama 2008 voters
Pct EV Share Margin
90% 391 56.06% 15,365 True Vote
88% 371 54.97% 12,614
86% 333 53.89% 9,864 sony xperia price range 10000 to 15000 is online casino legal in europe pamper casino no deposit bonus 2018
84% 318 52.80% 7,113 big slot machine winners in las vegas gambling games online real money royal flush mobile casino
82% 315 51.72% 4,362 Recorded

b)Obama 90% of returning Obama
Obama 2008 returning voter turnout rate
Rate EV Share Margin casino games pictures us online casinos no deposit bonus
95% 391 56.06% 15,365 True Vote
90% 371 55.05% 12,807
85% 333 53.95% 10,032
80% 318 52.77% 7,018
77% 318 52.00% 5,083 Recorded

Sensitivity Analysis II: 2008 WAS NOT FRAUDULENT
Obama had 52.9% (recorded)
Obama had 7% of returning McCain voters

a) 95% turnout of Obama and McCain 2008 voters
Obama pct of returning 2008 Obama voters
Pct EV Share Margin
91% 332 52.16% 5,491 Recorded
90% 303 51.67% 4,238
88% 285 50.68% 1,730
86% 272 49.69% -777
84% 253 48.71% -3,285

b)Obama had 90% of returning Obama voters
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Rate EV Share Margin
95% 303 51.67% 4,238 Recorded
93% 303 51.25% 3,177
91% 285 50.82% 2,087
89% 285 50.38% 964
87% 272 49.92% -191

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Year 2pty Obama Repub Other Margin
2008 59.8 57.4 38.6 4.0 18.8 late
2008 59.0 58.0 40.3 1.7 17.7 true
2012 56.4 54.0 41.8 4.2 12.2 late
2012 56.1 55.0 43.0 2.0 12.0 true

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
2004 Sample Kerry Bush Other
Total 13,660 7,064 6,414 182
Share 100.0% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3%

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV 23,116 18.4% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore 48,248 38.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
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Other 4,703 3.70% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%

Total 125.7 100% 51.8% 46.9% 1.3%
Votes…… 125.7 65.1 58.8 1.8

Unadjusted 2008 National Exit Poll
(17,836 respondents)
2008 Sample Obama McCain Other casino bus tours houston aztec treasure las vegas sports betting lines casinos jogos do uno spin online spin the wheel star trek online wiki casino boat port canaveral florida best rtg casino no deposit bonus
Total 17.836 10,873 6,641 322
Share 100.0% 61.0% 37.2% 1.8%

2008 Party ID
2008 Sample Dem Rep Other
Total 17,774 8,096 4,851 4,827
Share 100.0% 45.5% 27.3% 27.2%

Final 2008 National Exit Poll
(forced to match recorded vote)
Voted…2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV……….. 17.1 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush….52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…4.60% 5.30 4.00% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 52.87% 45.60% 1.54%
Votes…………. 131.5 69.50 59.95 2.02

How Voted in 2004
Voted Kerry Bush Other DNV Total online gambling sites rigged roulette hits strategy
2004….1,815 1,614 188 561 4,178
Share…43.5% 38.6% 4.5% 13.4% 100%

2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Voted…2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV……….. 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…50.2% 57.1 43.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush… 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…5.20% 5.92 4.50% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes………….. 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2

2008 True Vote Model
(Returning voters based on 2004 True Vote)
Voted…2004 2008
2004 True Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV………. 15.3 11.6% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry…53.7% 62.4 47.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush….45.3% 52.6 40.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other…1.00% 1.16 0.90% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%

Total…100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes…………. 131.5 76.2 53.2 2.1

____________________________________________________________________

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2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
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Projected 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Recorded: 48.3%, 255 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2006 Midterms
Regression Trend Model Projected Democratic Generic share: 56.43%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.37%

2008 Election Model
Obama
Projected: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean); dendera casino no deposit bonus royal casino vegas online casinos in florida with table games no deposit bonus codes thunderbolt casino
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
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Posted by on January 2, 2013 in 2012 Election, True Vote Models

 

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