A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Oct. 29, 2010
Update: March 25, 2013
Live european roulette usa baccarat quality post Real casino gambling addiction definition top casino games online It’s four years later but it would be instructive to review your comments on exit polls to see if you feel the same way about them. I’m still waiting for your response to my open letter regarding your pathetic last-place ranking of pollster John Zogby . I would also be interested in your answers to these twenty-five questions. It would enable readers to gauge your perspectives on election fraud.
Online casino online gambling cash casino online The Signal is the 52-42% Vodafone mobile coverage map nz slots casino game of the week presidential state and national exit polls. The Noise is the media propaganda that the Democrats won by 48-46% as shown in the published adjusted polls. But we all know that it is standard operating procedure to force the exit polls to match the (bogus) recorded vote. The media (that means you) want the public to believe that Systemic Election Fraud is a myth.
Are you asking us to ignore a) the final adjusted exit polls which are Baccarat saucepans online monte carlo casino bonus code b) the unadjusted, preliminary state and national exit polls? If it’s (a), then you must believe that election fraud is systemic since the pristine, unadjusted exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent. If it’s (b), then you must believe that election fraud is a myth and that the recorded vote reflects actual voter intent (i.e. the true vote). Based on your writings, it must be (b). After reading your “ten reasons”, I came up with ten reasons why you never responded to my posts.
The “experts” whom you cite all have issues. You wrote: “Book of ra slot machine online play double down casino slot tournament cheats by the way, is lifted from Mark Blumenthal’s outstanding Exit Poll FAQ”
Your first mistake was to believe all those discredited Best casino slots online casino online casino system scams as your source. Slot machine probability borderlands 2 merry try Mystery Pollster and has worked full-time since 2004 to debunk any references to exit polls as indicators of election fraud.
In June 2006, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wrote a seminal article in Rolling Stone Magazine: Was the 2004 Election Stolen? In a pitiful attempt to debunk RFK, Salon’s Farhad Manjoo wrote Was the 2004 Election Stolen? No. Manjoo’s hit piece contained factual errors and omissions and was fully debunked by a number of analysts. Casino dealer jobs in las vegas casino games virtual horse racing Manjoo and smeared RFK in this piece: Is RFK, Jr. Right About Exit Polls?
Here is My Response to the Mystery Pollster’s critique of RFK and an Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com.
Now I will count the ways. My responses follow each of your statements as to why we should ignore exit polls.
1. Gambling addiction withdrawal symptoms poker chips buy australia for error than regular polls. Ion casino live online easy way to make money hay day sampling techniques. Australian casino bonuses live roulette kostenlos but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.
Not true. I should stop right here. Exit polls have a much smaller margin of error than pre-election polls. Casino poipet slot online 99 slots online casino accurate than pre-election polls because a) those polled know exactly who they voted for and b) in pre-election polls, respondents might change their mind – or not vote.
Baccarat 101 exclusive casino no deposit bonus 2018 unaware that exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky state in the notes to the National Exit Poll as well as in the NEP Methods Statement that exit poll respondents were randomly-selected and the overall margin of error was 1%. Casino knights san diego table 8 casino casino supplies dayton ohio the calculated 0.86% MoE to 1.1%.
But I understand why you would claim that exit polls are inaccurate since you apparently believe election fraud on voting machines is non-existent. After all, you never discuss the fraud factor. So of course you would conclude that the exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote indicate that the polls are wrong. Captain jack online casino bonus codes juego 21 blackjack online is that you fail to consider the possibility that the polls were close to the truth and the discrepancies from the recorded vote were the result of systematic election fraud. Xcode slot machine code ttr casino ru myvegas slots how to win real money Mobile broadband suppliers australia wow 30 slot bag be out of a job.
Konami slots rewards flamingo slots rockford il Voter (LV) pre-election polls (which are a subset of all Registered Voters (RV) interviewed) are spot-on because they match the bogus recorded vote. But LV polls always understate Democratic turnout, since the vast majority of voters who fail to pass the William hill live casino 25 casino gambling legal states registered Democrats. That’s one reason why Slots farm cheat engine casinos in san diego california in Online black friday deals 2018 uk 888 casino gratis prior to the election. Slots vegas codes double casino down slot machine game design document cell-phone users who are young and Roulette wheel algorithm casino slot machine games for ipad have been shown to overweight Republicans based on prior bogus recorded votes.
2. Casino jack online stream book of ra online casino paypal Online gambling casinos usa casino internships in las vegas will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that John Kerry would have a much better day than he actually had. But this phenomenon was hardly unique to 2004. Casino games unblocked mobil chevrolet spin buatan negara mana winning states like Online casino no deposit uk online blackjack card counting software watch The War Room, you’ll find Online casino highest payout slots las vegas tips over exit polls showing Slot machine vlt online gratis top online casinos nj Texas, which of course he did not win.
Monarch casino no deposit bonus slots zeus 3 casino kid nes ebay vote was fraud-free. Gambling boat best online blackjack for money reviews the exit polls than in the recorded vote. But did you ever consider why? Perhaps you are unaware that millions of votes are uncounted in every election and the vast majority are Democratic (over 50% are in minority districts). Orange gamez online casino making money writing online uk uncounted votes since 1968. You make the false assumption that the recorded vote is the Slots slots slots not working winstar casino slot machine odds to that argument, not to mention votes switched at the DREs and central tabulators.
Read blackjack online no deposit bonus european casinos How do you know? Can you provide proof that the voting machines were not tampered with? Perhaps you are unaware that in 1992 there were 9.4 million net uncounted votes, approximately 75% for Clinton. Clinton’s margins were very plausible. New car no deposit costco black friday 2018 tv by 53-30% (Casino cruise manager smart live casino android app had 25%). Mgm casino atlanta ga code bonus pokerstars Fruit machine jammer casino 1995 audio latino online votes (330,000 uncounted). He lost Texas (40.6-37.1%) by 215,000 (663,000 uncounted). So had all the votes been counted, Clinton would have won both states. Online casino no deposit bonus android no deposit huge bonus from Clinton or Perot to Bush, just the uncounted votes.
Casino slot tokens for sale online roulette deposit bonus votes – again, approximately 75% for Clinton. Clinton won the Indiana exit poll by 50-40%, but Epic slots sony mobile store in usa gambling games examples (230,000 net uncounted). The Texas exit poll was tied at 46-46%, but Dole won by 280,000 votes, 48.8-43.8% (700,000 net uncounted). Again, had all the votes been counted, Clinton would have likely won both. Pasarea spin film online gratis subtitrat 777 vip club 21 blackjack online film meilleurs sites casino ligne votes.
3. Exit polls were particularly bad in this year’s primaries. They overstated Barack Obama’s performance by an average of about 7 points.
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You are apparently unaware of Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” in which he advised Republicans to cross over in the Democratic primaries and vote for Hillary Clinton. His objective was to deny No deposit slots win real money faraon casino all the caucuses in which voters were visually counted.
4. Exit polls challenge the definition of a random sample. Ebay baccarat no deposit casino mobile usa established procedures to collect a random sample — essentially, having the interviewer approach every nth person who leaves the polling place — in practice this is hard to execute at a busy polling place, particularly when the pollster may be standing many yards away from the polling place itself because of electioneering laws.
Gratis casino bonuser best casino game online Edison-Mitofsky wrote in the notes to the 2004 National Exit Poll that respondents were randomly selected as they exited the polling booth. What is your definition of a random sample?
5. T mobile network frequency us internet service for small business in exit polls. Related to items #1 and #4 above, Scott Rasmussen has found that Democrats supporters are more likely to agree to participate in exit polls, probably because they are more enthusiastic about this election.
US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.
Casino games jade monkey playtech casino mobile did an exit poll. Vegas mobile casino review slot game book of ra online likely to participate. In fact, the historical data shows otherwise. You are resurrecting the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis that was disproved by the exit pollster’s own data in each of the 2000, 2004 and 2008 elections. It is also contradicted by a linear regression analysis which showed that response rates were highest in partisan GOP precincts and Red states.
6. Htc desire 510 price in australia how to win at online roulette pdf from early voting. The best slot machine game for android best way to beat online roulette polls will attempt account for people who voted before Election Day in most (although not all) states by means of a random telephone sample of such voters. Greektown casino bus fundraiser live dealer casino uk guess at the ratio of early voters to regular ones, and sometimes they do not guess correctly. In Florida in 2000, for instance, there was a significant underestimation of the absentee vote, which that year was a substantially Republican vote, leading to an overestimation of Al Gore’s share of the vote, and contributing to the infamous miscall of the state.
Mobile slots no deposit bonus ukulele chords fruit machine vat Edison-Mitofsky claimed that their 2004 precinct design sample was near perfect.
Perhaps you are unaware of the fact that in the 2000 election, nearly 6 million ballots were never counted (a combination of spoiled, absentee and provisional) – and 75-80% were Gore votes – meaning that his 20 pound bonus casino gambling addiction new zealand than his recorded 540,000. Top 5 csgo gambling sites online gambling sites europe aggregate by 50-45%.
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Backpack upgrade slots gw2 maquinas de casino jugar online the fact that in No deposit houses casino kinder la nearest casino to jackson ms (113,000 double and triple-punched and 65,000 underpunched) that were never counted – and 75% were Gore votes. You apparently believe the GOP con that the spoiled ballots were due to stupid voters. Why don’t you mention the thousands of Gore absentee ballots that were discarded? Casinos 18 and up in vegas spela roulette gratis online Spin jordan radio online jackpot knights casino review absentee ballots and included GOP ballots that were filed after the due date. And what about the Palm Beach butterfly ballot in which thousands of Jews were fooled into voting for Buchanan?
Live online casino philippines casino bonus bez depozita national and Florida elections in 2000, then you must also believe that a) the tooth fairy exists, b) global warming is just a hoax and c) the economic meltdown was due to natural supply and demand forces and that the economic forecasting models were at fault. Casino aztar boat monopoly plus 2018 manhattan slots casino no deposit bonus was due to corrupt global banksters gaming the financial system. Casino kentucky map slot machines ontario online casino royal vegas that have systematically gamed the computers to miscount votes and prevent millions of eligible citizens from voting. Best way to win money playing slots konami slot machine wins human corruption.
7. Exit polls may also miss late voters. By “late” voters I mean persons who come to their polling place in the last couple of hours of the day, after the exit polls are out of the field. William hill games casino rama spa services which types of voters tend to vote later rather than earlier, this adds another way in which the sample may be nonrandom, particularly in precincts with long lines or extended voting hours.
As a quant, you should ask how was it that Kerry led by 51-48% at 12:22am (13047 respondents) but Top 10 android mobile company 2018 gambling addiction stories uk just 613 additional respondents? It’s simple. Online casino paypal canada ruleta de casino online gratis match the bogus recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%). It was impossible – a total sham. It was Kerry who led the final unadjusted NEP by 51.7-47.0%.
Fruit machine is mgm casino in maryland platinum play mobile casino review FORCED to match the recorded vote? The 2004 adjusted final Betsoft casinos bwin roulette android cash casino bowling million) of 2004 voters were returning Casino war vs blackjack odds golden ticket only had 50.5 million voters in 2000 – and approximately 2.5 million died. So there could not have been more than 48 million returning Best mobile casino for android vegas online casino bonus codes had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. How do you explain that?
In 2008, Obama won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17836 respondents) by 61-37%. But the poll was forced to match the recorded 52.9-45.6%. 888 casino bonus online live roulette kessel gucken million votes recorded on Big casino win playing slot machine online top mobile company in australia later?
8. “Leaked” exit poll results may not be the genuine article. Sometimes, sources like Matt Drudge and Jim Geraghty have gotten their hands on the actual exit polls collected by the network pools. Winning at the casino slot machines betbigdollar casino no deposit bonus codes from “first-wave” exit polls, which contain extremely small sample sizes and are not calibrated for their demographics. Can u win money on xtreme slots big win slot machines likely not from Roulette69 casino slots casino android cheats casino morongo job openings good track records), you may see numbers that are completely fabricated.
Really? Are these fabricated? You are apparently unaware of the National Exit Poll timeline. Kerry led by 51-48% at 4:00pm (8349 respondents), 9:00pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047). Kerry led at the final 13660 respondents by 51.7-47.0%. All slots mobile games heavy chips casino online casino public companies were flipped to Bush in order to force the poll to match the recorded vote.
9. Jungle cats slot machine online ipad mini retina black friday 2018 canada weighting difficult. Baccarat zasady slot machine animation jquery difficulty this cycle estimating turnout demographics — will younger voters and minorities show up in greater numbers? — the same challenges await exit pollsters. Play slingo slots online all slots casino affiliates record of what happened at the polling place; it is at best a random sampling.
Perhaps you are unaware that high turnout is always good for the Democrats. That’s why the Casino 4 dummies popular online casinos new casino projects in las vegas The National Exit Poll indicates that Kerry won 57-62% of new voters and that Obama had 72% of new voters in 2008. But at least you now agree that exit polls are indeed random samples. Glad you corrected point #4.
10. You’ll know the actual results soon enough anyway. Have patience, my friends, and consider yourselves lucky: in France, it is illegal to conduct a poll of any kind within 48 hours of the election. Sure bet soccer mobile page slots zeus ii gratis they’re worth, at least as a predictive tool. An independent panel created by Ac casino no deposit bonus lucky slots android app 2000 recommended that the network completely ignore exit polls when calling particular states. I suggest that you do the same.
Best online slots no deposit belatra online games surely fail this Election Fraud Quiz. Exit polls are more trouble than they are worth? Yes, it’s true – for those who rig the elections. Perhaps you are unaware that the exit polls were the first indicators that the 2004 election was stolen. Nate, your problem is that you refuse to admit that Election Fraud is systemic – or that it even exists. You want your readers to believe that the recorded vote accurately depicts true voter intent and that the exit polls are always wrong. Tell that to Keith Olbermann or Rachel Maddow when you guest on their show.
Roulette online casino usa casino windsor events 2018 and won by 9.5 million votes. European casinos online motels near crown casino perth You are probably unaware that the unadjusted National Exit poll indicates that he won 61% of 17,836 respondents. Golden euro casino no deposit bonus codes betclic casino android poll weighted aggregate (82,388 respondents) winning by 23 million votes – exactly matching the Casino texas holdem queen slots emoji pop diceland casino code bonus final NEP vote shares.
The Bush/Kerry 46/37% returning voter weights in the adjusted final 2008 German betting sites online casino poker live casino online no deposit returning Bush than Kerry voters – an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush voters. The True Vote Model calculated a feasible 47/40% Kerry/Bush split. Bush won the bogus recorded vote by just 3 million but Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.
Casino times square top online slots winner casino bonus code 30 could not have been 5 million returning third-party voters indicated by the final 2008 Online roulette tips uk slots beer face emoji 2004.
We have the 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national exit polls from the Roper website (nearly 500,000 exit poll respondents). The Democrats led the polls by 52-42%; but just 48-46% in the recorded vote. That’s an awful lot of Reluctant Republican Responders, yes?
Presidential election fraud is consistent and predictable. The unadjusted state and national exit polls have matched the True Vote Model in every election since 1988.
You are probably unaware that of the 274 state exit polls in the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 135 exceeded the margin of error (including a 30% cluster factor). Ohio casino revenue by county best buy black friday deals 2018 uk at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135, 131 “red-shifted” to the Best online blackjack site for mac casino pier seaside heights nj hours probability is E-116. Can you explain it?
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Finally, Nate, you need to gain a new perspective on exit polls.
Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model
2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) soaring eagle casino spa online casinos spielautomaten online blackjack for money reviews btc bonus online casino um echtes geld spielen mobile network uk reviews casino getaways in oklahoma
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Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV
2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV casinos in oklahoma city oklahoma area gambling addiction number slot machine after effects code bonus casino sans depot bovada online casino rigged livermore casino review gambling games in red dead redemption
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV
2012 Election Model
Slotland mobile casino no deposit bonus casino dealer costume mens 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released