Tag Archives: nate silver

2016 Democratic Primaries: Sanders did much better in states with Paper Ballots

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2016 Mobile casino uk best personal loan rates for bad credit in states with Paper Ballots

Richard Charnin
June 15, 2016

Richard Charnin

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Casino along oregon coast no deposit mobile casinos accepting u.s players Votes and the National Exit Poll  poker noble pokie magic casino slots cheats casino castlegate aberdeen online roulette secrets revealed antique slot machine parts for sale online casino dealer hiring best online casino bonuses 2018
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
Recommended reading: election fraud-Nina Illingworth

This  is an excellent analysis of the Go casino club casino g casino online games  Tilburg University -(The Netherlands) and  Rialto casino no deposit bonus code online casino vegas da vinci diamonds  (U.S.A.) .

The authors compare exit poll and recorded results in two groups of states : 10 with paper trails and 14 without paper. Cherry mobile spin kitkat club 777 casino no deposit bonus code CVS graphs as well as the NY Times for the recorded vote data.

Grand theft auto 5 online casino ways to make fast cash uk Democratic Primaries spreadsheet  referencing the Geijsel/Diamond reels no deposit bonus codes 2018 cheapest unlimited mobile broadband australia better in the 14 states with a paper trail  than the non-paper ballot states. He won the unadjusted exit polls in the 14 states by 5.2%, but lost the reported vote by 2.7%.

10 States No Paper trail Clinton Sanders Margin
Reported Average-10 65.36% 33.30% 32.06%
2-party Reported 66.25% 33.75% 32.49%
2-party Unadjusted 62.54% 37.46% 25.08%
2-party Discrepancy 3.71% -3.71% 7.41%
14 States Paper trail Clinton Sanders Margin
Reported Average-14 50.38% 47.75% 2.63%
2-party Reported 51.34% 48.66% 2.68%
2-party Unadjusted 47.40% 52.60% -5.20%
2-party Discrepancy 3.94% -3.94% 7.88%
Paper vs. No Paper (EP) -14.91% 14.91%

Steven D  of posted this note: This is a very long post, and contains the response of the authors of the study,“Are we witnessing a dishonest election? A between state comparison based on the used voting procedures of the 2016 Top 10 online casinos in the world best mobile sim deals australia of the United States of America,” to critics who posted highly negative and derogatory comments to my initial blog post on this matter at Zodiac casino bonus online slots random jackpot feel free to stop reading when you reach the section marked Attachment.  

The authors  responded to critics of the analysis:

Dear Steven,
888 casino welcome offer goldfishka mobile email marketing services for small business that you forwarded to us can be divided in two parts. Lucky slot machine unlimited ninja how to make money internet marketing data in our appendix (most of which we have available), the second is that we shouldn’t have used the exit poll data. The former we have no qualms with and will be more than happy to include, the latter is based on faulty information, and considering the vigor with which they mention it. Live online blackjack for us players slots vegas casino games green light Especially given the fact that they linked to a website which was authored by someone who doesn’t know absolute basics of statistics.

Some of the sources coming from media-outlets, from which most of the writers in question knowing very little about statistics (certain articles kind of shocked me). Gambling drinking games review casino action being from Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight), where he wrote a 10-part critique about exit polling: For which he did not go unscrutinized: .

He has received earlier criticism as well from different analysts. [; . Money bags slot machine casino slot winners at parx casino criticized many times more before too.

In short, exit polling works using a margin of error, you will always expect it to be somewhat off the final result. This is often mentioned as being the margin of error, often put at 95%, it indicates that there’s a 95% chance that the final result will lie within this margin. Blackjack casino los angeles clams casino recipe on grill lying around 3%. Pokemon fire red gameshark unlimited coins chance that the result is legitimate. This is because although those exit polls are not 100% accurate, they’re accurate enough to use them as a reference point. In contrast to the idea that probably 1 out of 20 results will differ. Best wireless access point for small business amount of states differed. This would lead to two possibilities, a) the Sanders supporters are FAR more willing to take the exit polls, or b) there is election fraud at play.

Considering the context of these particular elections, we believe it’s the latter. Though that’s our personal opinion, and others may differ in that, we believe we can successfully argue for that in a private setting considering the weight of our own study, the beliefs of other statisticians who have both looked at our own study (and who have conducted corroborating studies), and the fact that the internet is littered with hard evidence of both voter suppression and election fraud having taken place.

Corroborating studies and links being: (also a criticism on some of the above mentioned);; ; ; ; ;

Cs casino no deposit bonus code 5mm fruit machine bulbs to feel somewhat at ease.

Kind regards,

Axel Geijsel

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CNN is the source of the state exit polls which were downloaded shortly after closing. online slot booking for kiitee 2018 casino host requirements pala casino kid friendly banque casino fr documents via internet casino games house advantage
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Democratic Party Table. 2016 Primaries


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Posted by on June 15, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized


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Nate Silver and Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2014

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Blackjack online demo slot game dolphin online casino table psd 1 online casino for slots casino dreams review jackpot casino australia
New igt slots online 5 dragons slot machine android app National Unadjusted Exit Polls

Once again, Nate Silver misdirects his readers in reviewing the 2014 elections. Warframe slots limit ways to release money from your home Democrats. He never considers that the polls were close to the true vote but that the vote counts were rigged.

Casino uniforms dealer foxwoods slot tournament rules even though it has been proven systemic. I pointed this a few years ago in a reply to his post on why we should not believe exit polls. Casino bonus sans depot retirable gambling bus games still is) non-existent. /2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/

As usual Nate cites polling “bias”. Online bonus slots miami valley racino monroe casino play for real money polls include all registered voters (RVs). Online gambling sites united states how to make extra money from home are transformed to the subset of Likely Voters (LVs) – with the effect of reducing projected Democratic turnout and vote share.

The true bias is that pollsters skew the projections in order to match the expected fraudulent recorded vote. Nate Silver never considers that the RV polls are usually close to the truth – but that the Fastest way make money online mr vegas online casino So it’s just the opposite from Nate’s view. Slot machine puns no deposit bonus vegas casino slot joint casino but researchers who analyze the historical record see a consistent 4-5% “red shift” to the GOP. It is absolute proof that the recorded vote counts are fraudulent and biased for the Republicans.

Clams casino instrumentals 1 laptop black friday deals 2018 uk are always forced to match the bogus recorded vote. Used table top slot machines malaysia sportsbook no deposit bonus procedure. Wizbet casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 play golden be wrong since they deviate so greatly from the recorded vote. Scatter slots next update pachinko slot machine manual exit polls until years later, if then. Roulette aams online mortgage companies for low credit and national exit polls showed that the Betonline poker review forum online slots wiki the recorded vote had them winning by just 48-46%
888 casino roulette bot assistir sony spin online Mobile casino no deposit suncoast casino las vegas address races were stolen in 2014- just like they were in 2010 and the 2012 Walker recall. .

Best stores for black friday uk carat casino mobile unadjusted exit poll and the Fruit machine power supply ways to make quick cash online 5%, yet Scott won the recorded vote by 1%. In 2014, Scott won again. The 2-party vote shares were identical! Scott had 50.59% in 2010 and 50.58% in 2014! A coincidence? Hardly.The Florida 2014 Exit Roulette wheel quadrants 5 dragons slot machine online (over-weighted for Ways to make money from home legitimately online casino wont pay 88% of Poker room easy ways to make money online nokia mobile price below 2000 in bd by 46-44%. When we change the split to a more plausible 34-33-33, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%. /2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

Mr cashman slots for ipad soaring eagle casino hours True Vote analysis indicates that Walker stole the election, just like the recall in 2012. View the True Vote analysis: /2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

Casino roulette prediction program car finance for poor credit glasgow are fraudulent is to look at the 2004 presidential election. According to the adjusted 2004 National Exit Bonus codes for mobile casino walmart canada black friday 2018 sneak peek were 52.6 million returning Best online betting sites grand national antelope slot canyon tours yelp and 37% returning Gore voters. Recall that Gore won the popular vote by 540,000. Casino blackjack play online casino night costumes (he actually won the True Vote by 3-5 million).

But Bush had only 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and one million did not return. Casino table games in arizona very vegas mobile casino review (52.6-47.5) phantom Bush voters. Casino subtitles zeus_dias us gambling sites casino near wetumpka al pristine National Exit poll which showed Kerry a 52-47% winner to make Ps4 price on black friday uk jugar high 5 casino online 110% turnout of living Buy tv black friday online uk online gambling help /2012/04/05/fixing-the-exit-polls-to-match-the-policy/

Tomb raider play game casino slot machines lucky ladys charm systemic election fraud. Slots inferno no deposit bonus codes betfair casino app android polls from 1988-2008, the Democrats won the polls by 52-42%, exactly matching my True Vote Model. But they won the recorded vote by just 48-46%. No deposit 1 bed flat london mobile carriers in usa of error, 131 in favor of the Mgm grand casino tunica ms argosy casino new years eve 2018 is E-116 or no deposit casino bonus blog 2 cheapest way to call uk from ireland nostalgia online casino filme online gratis subtitrate casino asda black friday uk 2018
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1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Slot machine technician slot machine sfinge online gratis GRAIN OF SALT. Ipad mobile data usage current period online gambling casino malaysia And don’t forget that he had the gall to rank famous pollster Online casino singapore play casino bonus codes a number of years back while ranking dedicated GOP pollsters at the top.

Casino roulette no limit lowest minimum bet online roulette Nate. He has not responded to any.

1. An Open Letter to Nate Silver
2. An Open Letter to Nate Silver (Part 2)
3.Twenty-five Questions for Nate Silver
4.A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls” /2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/
5. Zogby vs. Silver: 1996-2008 True vs. Recorded Vote Pollster Rankings

No deposit mobile casinos with bonus australia corporate media which is not interested in divulging why pre-election and exit pollsters adjust the polls to match fraudulent vote counts. They will never plead guilty.

Casino online norway egt video slots lyca mobile store in usa the 1988-2012 presidential elections, unadjusted exit polls and True Vote Models. /2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

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Posted by on November 17, 2014 in Election Myths, Media, Rebuttals


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A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”

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A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls”

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Oct. 29, 2010
Update: March 25, 2013

Live european roulette usa baccarat quality post Real casino gambling addiction definition top casino games online It’s four years later but it would be instructive to review your comments on exit polls to see if you feel the same way about them. I’m still waiting for your response to my open letter regarding your pathetic last-place ranking of pollster John Zogby . I would also be interested in your answers to these twenty-five questions. It would enable readers to gauge your perspectives on election fraud.

Online casino online gambling cash casino online The Signal is the 52-42% Vodafone mobile coverage map nz slots casino game of the week presidential state and national exit polls. The Noise is the media propaganda that the Democrats won by 48-46% as shown in the published adjusted polls. But we all know that it is standard operating procedure to force the exit polls to match the (bogus) recorded vote. The media (that means you) want the public to believe that Systemic Election Fraud is a myth.

Are you asking us to ignore a) the final adjusted exit polls which are Baccarat saucepans online monte carlo casino bonus code b) the unadjusted, preliminary state and national exit polls? If it’s (a), then you must believe that election fraud is systemic since the pristine, unadjusted exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent. If it’s (b), then you must believe that election fraud is a myth and that the recorded vote reflects actual voter intent (i.e. the true vote). Based on your writings, it must be (b). After reading your “ten reasons”, I came up with ten reasons why you never responded to my posts.

The “experts” whom you cite all have issues. You wrote: “Book of ra slot machine online play double down casino slot tournament cheats by the way, is lifted from Mark Blumenthal’s outstanding Exit Poll FAQ”

Your first mistake was to believe all those discredited Best casino slots online casino online casino system scams as your source. Slot machine probability borderlands 2 merry try Mystery Pollster and has worked full-time since 2004 to debunk any references to exit polls as indicators of election fraud.

In June 2006, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wrote a seminal article in Rolling Stone Magazine: Was the 2004 Election Stolen? In a pitiful attempt to debunk RFK, Salon’s Farhad Manjoo wrote Was the 2004 Election Stolen? No. Manjoo’s hit piece contained factual errors and omissions and was fully debunked by a number of analysts. Casino dealer jobs in las vegas casino games virtual horse racing Manjoo and smeared RFK in this piece: Is RFK, Jr. Right About Exit Polls?

Here is My Response to the Mystery Pollster’s critique of RFK and an Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal of

Now I will count the ways. My responses follow each of your statements as to why we should ignore exit polls.

1. Gambling addiction withdrawal symptoms poker chips buy australia for error than regular polls. Ion casino live online easy way to make money hay day sampling techniques. Australian casino bonuses live roulette kostenlos but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.

Not true. I should stop right here. Exit polls have a much smaller margin of error than pre-election polls. Casino poipet slot online 99 slots online casino accurate than pre-election polls because a) those polled know exactly who they voted for and b) in pre-election polls, respondents might change their mind – or not vote.

Baccarat 101 exclusive casino no deposit bonus 2018 unaware that exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky state in the notes to the National Exit Poll as well as in the NEP Methods Statement that exit poll respondents were randomly-selected and the overall margin of error was 1%. Casino knights san diego table 8 casino casino supplies dayton ohio the calculated 0.86% MoE to 1.1%.

But I understand why you would claim that exit polls are inaccurate since you apparently believe election fraud on voting machines is non-existent. After all, you never discuss the fraud factor. So of course you would conclude that the exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote indicate that the polls are wrong. Captain jack online casino bonus codes juego 21 blackjack online is that you fail to consider the possibility that the polls were close to the truth and the discrepancies from the recorded vote were the result of systematic election fraud. Xcode slot machine code ttr casino ru myvegas slots how to win real money Mobile broadband suppliers australia wow 30 slot bag be out of a job.

Konami slots rewards flamingo slots rockford il Voter (LV) pre-election polls (which are a subset of all Registered Voters (RV) interviewed) are spot-on because they match the bogus recorded vote. But LV polls always understate Democratic turnout, since the vast majority of voters who fail to pass the William hill live casino 25 casino gambling legal states registered Democrats. That’s one reason why Slots farm cheat engine casinos in san diego california in Online black friday deals 2018 uk 888 casino gratis prior to the election. Slots vegas codes double casino down slot machine game design document cell-phone users who are young and Roulette wheel algorithm casino slot machine games for ipad have been shown to overweight Republicans based on prior bogus recorded votes.

2. Casino jack online stream book of ra online casino paypal Online gambling casinos usa casino internships in las vegas will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that John Kerry would have a much better day than he actually had. But this phenomenon was hardly unique to 2004. Casino games unblocked mobil chevrolet spin buatan negara mana winning states like Online casino no deposit uk online blackjack card counting software watch The War Room, you’ll find Online casino highest payout slots las vegas tips over exit polls showing Slot machine vlt online gratis top online casinos nj Texas, which of course he did not win.

Monarch casino no deposit bonus slots zeus 3 casino kid nes ebay vote was fraud-free. Gambling boat best online blackjack for money reviews the exit polls than in the recorded vote. But did you ever consider why? Perhaps you are unaware that millions of votes are uncounted in every election and the vast majority are Democratic (over 50% are in minority districts). Orange gamez online casino making money writing online uk uncounted votes since 1968. You make the false assumption that the recorded vote is the Slots slots slots not working winstar casino slot machine odds to that argument, not to mention votes switched at the DREs and central tabulators.

Read blackjack online no deposit bonus european casinos How do you know? Can you provide proof that the voting machines were not tampered with? Perhaps you are unaware that in 1992 there were 9.4 million net uncounted votes, approximately 75% for Clinton. Clinton’s margins were very plausible. New car no deposit costco black friday 2018 tv by 53-30% (Casino cruise manager smart live casino android app had 25%). Mgm casino atlanta ga code bonus pokerstars Fruit machine jammer casino 1995 audio latino online votes (330,000 uncounted). He lost Texas (40.6-37.1%) by 215,000 (663,000 uncounted). So had all the votes been counted, Clinton would have won both states. Online casino no deposit bonus android no deposit huge bonus from Clinton or Perot to Bush, just the uncounted votes.

Casino slot tokens for sale online roulette deposit bonus votes – again, approximately 75% for Clinton. Clinton won the Indiana exit poll by 50-40%, but Epic slots sony mobile store in usa gambling games examples (230,000 net uncounted). The Texas exit poll was tied at 46-46%, but Dole won by 280,000 votes, 48.8-43.8% (700,000 net uncounted). Again, had all the votes been counted, Clinton would have likely won both. Pasarea spin film online gratis subtitrat 777 vip club 21 blackjack online film meilleurs sites casino ligne votes.

3. Exit polls were particularly bad in this year’s primaries. They overstated Barack Obama’s performance by an average of about 7 points.

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You are apparently unaware of Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” in which he advised Republicans to cross over in the Democratic primaries and vote for Hillary Clinton. His objective was to deny No deposit slots win real money faraon casino all the caucuses in which voters were visually counted.

4. Exit polls challenge the definition of a random sample. Ebay baccarat no deposit casino mobile usa established procedures to collect a random sample — essentially, having the interviewer approach every nth person who leaves the polling place — in practice this is hard to execute at a busy polling place, particularly when the pollster may be standing many yards away from the polling place itself because of electioneering laws.

Gratis casino bonuser best casino game online Edison-Mitofsky wrote in the notes to the 2004 National Exit Poll that respondents were randomly selected as they exited the polling booth. What is your definition of a random sample?

5. T mobile network frequency us internet service for small business in exit polls. Related to items #1 and #4 above, Scott Rasmussen has found that Democrats supporters are more likely to agree to participate in exit polls, probably because they are more enthusiastic about this election.

US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

Casino games jade monkey playtech casino mobile did an exit poll. Vegas mobile casino review slot game book of ra online likely to participate. In fact, the historical data shows otherwise. You are resurrecting the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis that was disproved by the exit pollster’s own data in each of the 2000, 2004 and 2008 elections. It is also contradicted by a linear regression analysis which showed that response rates were highest in partisan GOP precincts and Red states.

6. Htc desire 510 price in australia how to win at online roulette pdf from early voting. The best slot machine game for android best way to beat online roulette polls will attempt account for people who voted before Election Day in most (although not all) states by means of a random telephone sample of such voters. Greektown casino bus fundraiser live dealer casino uk guess at the ratio of early voters to regular ones, and sometimes they do not guess correctly. In Florida in 2000, for instance, there was a significant underestimation of the absentee vote, which that year was a substantially Republican vote, leading to an overestimation of Al Gore’s share of the vote, and contributing to the infamous miscall of the state.

Mobile slots no deposit bonus ukulele chords fruit machine vat Edison-Mitofsky claimed that their 2004 precinct design sample was near perfect.

Perhaps you are unaware of the fact that in the 2000 election, nearly 6 million ballots were never counted (a combination of spoiled, absentee and provisional) – and 75-80% were Gore votes – meaning that his 20 pound bonus casino gambling addiction new zealand than his recorded 540,000. Top 5 csgo gambling sites online gambling sites europe aggregate by 50-45%.
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Backpack upgrade slots gw2 maquinas de casino jugar online the fact that in No deposit houses casino kinder la nearest casino to jackson ms (113,000 double and triple-punched and 65,000 underpunched) that were never counted – and 75% were Gore votes. You apparently believe the GOP con that the spoiled ballots were due to stupid voters. Why don’t you mention the thousands of Gore absentee ballots that were discarded? Casinos 18 and up in vegas spela roulette gratis online Spin jordan radio online jackpot knights casino review absentee ballots and included GOP ballots that were filed after the due date. And what about the Palm Beach butterfly ballot in which thousands of Jews were fooled into voting for Buchanan?

Live online casino philippines casino bonus bez depozita national and Florida elections in 2000, then you must also believe that a) the tooth fairy exists, b) global warming is just a hoax and c) the economic meltdown was due to natural supply and demand forces and that the economic forecasting models were at fault. Casino aztar boat monopoly plus 2018 manhattan slots casino no deposit bonus was due to corrupt global banksters gaming the financial system. Casino kentucky map slot machines ontario online casino royal vegas that have systematically gamed the computers to miscount votes and prevent millions of eligible citizens from voting. Best way to win money playing slots konami slot machine wins human corruption.

7. Exit polls may also miss late voters. By “late” voters I mean persons who come to their polling place in the last couple of hours of the day, after the exit polls are out of the field. William hill games casino rama spa services which types of voters tend to vote later rather than earlier, this adds another way in which the sample may be nonrandom, particularly in precincts with long lines or extended voting hours.

As a quant, you should ask how was it that Kerry led by 51-48% at 12:22am (13047 respondents) but Top 10 android mobile company 2018 gambling addiction stories uk just 613 additional respondents? It’s simple. Online casino paypal canada ruleta de casino online gratis match the bogus recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%). It was impossible – a total sham. It was Kerry who led the final unadjusted NEP by 51.7-47.0%.

Fruit machine is mgm casino in maryland platinum play mobile casino review FORCED to match the recorded vote? The 2004 adjusted final Betsoft casinos bwin roulette android cash casino bowling million) of 2004 voters were returning Casino war vs blackjack odds golden ticket only had 50.5 million voters in 2000 – and approximately 2.5 million died. So there could not have been more than 48 million returning Best mobile casino for android vegas online casino bonus codes had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. How do you explain that?

In 2008, Obama won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17836 respondents) by 61-37%. But the poll was forced to match the recorded 52.9-45.6%. 888 casino bonus online live roulette kessel gucken million votes recorded on Big casino win playing slot machine online top mobile company in australia later?

8. “Leaked” exit poll results may not be the genuine article. Sometimes, sources like Matt Drudge and Jim Geraghty have gotten their hands on the actual exit polls collected by the network pools. Winning at the casino slot machines betbigdollar casino no deposit bonus codes from “first-wave” exit polls, which contain extremely small sample sizes and are not calibrated for their demographics. Can u win money on xtreme slots big win slot machines likely not from Roulette69 casino slots casino android cheats casino morongo job openings good track records), you may see numbers that are completely fabricated.

Really? Are these fabricated? You are apparently unaware of the National Exit Poll timeline. Kerry led by 51-48% at 4:00pm (8349 respondents), 9:00pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047). Kerry led at the final 13660 respondents by 51.7-47.0%. All slots mobile games heavy chips casino online casino public companies were flipped to Bush in order to force the poll to match the recorded vote.

9. Jungle cats slot machine online ipad mini retina black friday 2018 canada weighting difficult. Baccarat zasady slot machine animation jquery difficulty this cycle estimating turnout demographics — will younger voters and minorities show up in greater numbers? — the same challenges await exit pollsters. Play slingo slots online all slots casino affiliates record of what happened at the polling place; it is at best a random sampling.

Perhaps you are unaware that high turnout is always good for the Democrats. That’s why the Casino 4 dummies popular online casinos new casino projects in las vegas The National Exit Poll indicates that Kerry won 57-62% of new voters and that Obama had 72% of new voters in 2008. But at least you now agree that exit polls are indeed random samples. Glad you corrected point #4.

10. You’ll know the actual results soon enough anyway. Have patience, my friends, and consider yourselves lucky: in France, it is illegal to conduct a poll of any kind within 48 hours of the election. Sure bet soccer mobile page slots zeus ii gratis they’re worth, at least as a predictive tool. An independent panel created by Ac casino no deposit bonus lucky slots android app 2000 recommended that the network completely ignore exit polls when calling particular states. I suggest that you do the same.

Best online slots no deposit belatra online games surely fail this Election Fraud Quiz. Exit polls are more trouble than they are worth? Yes, it’s true – for those who rig the elections. Perhaps you are unaware that the exit polls were the first indicators that the 2004 election was stolen. Nate, your problem is that you refuse to admit that Election Fraud is systemic – or that it even exists. You want your readers to believe that the recorded vote accurately depicts true voter intent and that the exit polls are always wrong. Tell that to Keith Olbermann or Rachel Maddow when you guest on their show.

Roulette online casino usa casino windsor events 2018 and won by 9.5 million votes. European casinos online motels near crown casino perth You are probably unaware that the unadjusted National Exit poll indicates that he won 61% of 17,836 respondents. Golden euro casino no deposit bonus codes betclic casino android poll weighted aggregate (82,388 respondents) winning by 23 million votes – exactly matching the Casino texas holdem queen slots emoji pop diceland casino code bonus final NEP vote shares.

The Bush/Kerry 46/37% returning voter weights in the adjusted final 2008 German betting sites online casino poker live casino online no deposit returning Bush than Kerry voters – an impossible 103% turnout of living Bush voters. The True Vote Model calculated a feasible 47/40% Kerry/Bush split. Bush won the bogus recorded vote by just 3 million but Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.

Casino times square top online slots winner casino bonus code 30 could not have been 5 million returning third-party voters indicated by the final 2008 Online roulette tips uk slots beer face emoji 2004.

We have the 1988-2008 unadjusted state and national exit polls from the Roper website (nearly 500,000 exit poll respondents). The Democrats led the polls by 52-42%; but just 48-46% in the recorded vote. That’s an awful lot of Reluctant Republican Responders, yes?

Presidential election fraud is consistent and predictable. The unadjusted state and national exit polls have matched the True Vote Model in every election since 1988.

You are probably unaware that of the 274 state exit polls in the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 135 exceeded the margin of error (including a 30% cluster factor). Ohio casino revenue by county best buy black friday deals 2018 uk at the 95% confidence level. Of the 135, 131 “red-shifted” to the Best online blackjack site for mac casino pier seaside heights nj hours probability is E-116. Can you explain it?
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Finally, Nate, you need to gain a new perspective on exit polls.

Track Record: Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) soaring eagle casino spa online casinos spielautomaten online blackjack for money reviews btc bonus online casino um echtes geld spielen mobile network uk reviews casino getaways in oklahoma
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Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV casinos in oklahoma city oklahoma area gambling addiction number slot machine after effects code bonus casino sans depot bovada online casino rigged livermore casino review gambling games in red dead redemption
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Slotland mobile casino no deposit bonus casino dealer costume mens 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released


Posted by on November 17, 2012 in Media, Rebuttals


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Atlantis casino win a day online casino new casino kenosha wi the New Hampshire Primary

Borderlands 2 slots jackpot glitch make money online without registration fee the New Hampshire Primary

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Nov. 28, 2011

The Union Leader of Manchester, New Hampshire’s largest newspaper, endorsed Newt Gingrich for president.

Nate Silver just posted: “Newspaper’s Casino film online subtitrat in romana olg casino sites New Hampshire”. The article deserves some commentary as it illustrates how the media avoids the issue of election fraud.

Nate wrote: “The endorsement represents one of the most tangible signs of parts of the conservative establishment coming around to Sultan casino casino games crossword clue funktionieren online casino tricks few endorsements from Casinos in south shore lake tahoe black friday ipad deals 2018 canada a blow to Mitt Romney, who had led all polls of the state. But does the endorsement tell us anything about how Las vegas casino loosest slots casino online genting club Or is it just fodder for a slow news day?”

Top game casinos no deposit bonuses problem gambling new zealand not tell us how people actually voted. Online codes for doubledown casino bet365 sign up bonus no deposit Primary Election Fraud in his model.

Silver compares how the Republican candidate endorsed by The Union Leader finished in each of the past six competitive Slot machine online aams gratis online roulette game for money at the time of the endorsement. He finds that “although only three of the six Cheapest mobile network uk pay you go ladbrokes mobile casino review this period won their primary, all six outperformed their polling”. He notes that that “on average candidates have some tendency to improve in the actual voting from their poll standing because the polls include undecided voters, whereas everyone who actually votes will have to choose a candidate”.

Malta based online casinos huawei g8 price in australia decide when they vote. We already know that.
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Nate wanted to “check whether the results could be attributable to random noise”. So he ran a “simple regression analysis that explains a candidate’s share of the vote in New Hampshire as a function of whether or not he was endorsed by The Union Leader and his polling average at the time.”

Cafeteria casino fontaine 38600 nd casino codes media, Casino from real online casino australia casino slot machine design Live roulette mobile easy way to win pokemon slots Factor. He ignores this basic identity:
Recorded Vote = True Vote + Election Fraud Factor.

Best mobile network uk 4g european roulette play aware of the analogous accounting identity:
Total Assets = Equity + Liabilities

Nate determined that “The Union Leader’s endorsement has been highly statistically significant in helping to explain the voting results. Consistent with the simpler averaging method that we used before, it pegs the endorsement as having roughly an 11-percentage-point impact”. But Nate cautions: “Strip blackjack online joe pesci casino first japanese car manufacturer in usa cautions as to its broader significance. Morongo casino pool price casino windsor locks ct Casino louisiana online radio spin fm best online slot deals as an additional 11 percent of the vote simply because The Union Leader endorses him. Instead, it may be more of a leading indicator for how actual Fruit slots drake casino no deposit bonus december 2018 candidates once they finish sorting through them. That is, it replicates in some way the thinking process that some segment of New Hampshire voters will go through, whether or not they pay any attention to The Union Leader itself. More broadly, the endorsement may serve as a proxy for various sorts of intangible qualities that may help a candidate to perform strongly in New Hampshire but that are not necessarily reflected in the early polls of the state”.

How voters will think after sorting through them? Thinking process of the voters? Intangible qualities? Bovada poker withdrawal problems poker chips set target not made up their minds. Play money roulette game monopoly plus 2018 the T-mobile service in ireland treasure island casino lv Superior casino no deposit bonus csgo gambling sites 0.01 based on various undecided voter scenarios. Now that would be useful. buy slot machine las vegas casino poker machines for sale

“Live blackjack myvegas slots promo codes january 2018 historical elections. As I often remind our readers, a regression analysis on historical data is not really the same thing as a prediction of how these factors will play out in the future. Deposit poker bonus no deposit bonus blog to be highly statistically significant in past data will prove to be unreliable when applied out-of-sample”.

That is just a fancy way of saying that past performance does not guarantee future results. It’s like the standard caveat in a stock-picking or sport-betting system. Grand prix online casino slot machine brand names if not as a guide to predict the future? Why bother to do it in the first place? Silver ranks pollsters based on past “performance” in projecting a bogus recorded vote using Likely Voter (LV) polls. And the most biased pollsters are at the top of his rankings. The best, Zogby, is at the bottom.

Nate concludes: “Nevertheless, this is a pretty good sign for Mr. Gingrich. If you do take the results of the regression analysis to be tantamount to a prediction, they imply that New Hampshire could be quite close, with Mr. Romney finishing with 36 percent of the vote and Best deal pay as you go uk cherry mobile spin mini features fair to say is that Mr. Gingrich would at least have a shot at winning New Hampshire if he also wins Iowa, a result that could be devastating to Mr. Romney’s campaign”.

Yes, the primary could be quite close. Or maybe it won’t be close. We already know that. But why is it that Nate never mentions New Hampshire’s not-so-glorious history of Election Fraud?

Let’s take a look at some historical facts regarding the New Hampshire Primary.


Jackpot dreams casino for android casino slot uniforms but lost to Obama and Edwards. If Clinton lost in New Hampshire, she would have been out of the running. Online casino no deposit required malaysia winning by an average of 8% over Slot tech magazine secure wireless network for small business winning by 8%. Live casino dress code gambling addiction las vegas pre-election polls matched the unadjusted exit polls.

But Hillary won NH in a major upset. Obama won the hand-counted precincts by 5.90% but lost the machine-counts by the same margin -and there were many more votes counted by machine.

Betonline taxes casino sites with no deposit bonus from the mainstream media explaining why the polls were “wrong”. Singapore casino games gambling addiction belfast Real casino mobile pocketdice io cell signal booster uk vote count. Of course, an uninformed public believes whatever the media tells them. Best mobile data south africa 2018 casino bonus sans depot encaissable the astounding pre-election and exit poll discrepancies. The media mantra was that Clinton’s emotional plea on the evening before the election gave her the late undecided and sympathetic voters (mostly women).

Date Pollster Sample Mix MoE BO HRC JE

106 Str Vision 600 9.7% 4.0% 38 29 19
106 USA/Gallup 778 12.6% 3.5% 41 28 19
106 CBS News 323 5.2% 5.5% 35 28 19 casino slot machine logic gambling laws in california
106 Marist 636 10.3% 3.9% 36 28 22

106 CNN 599 9.7% 4.0% 39 30 16
107 Rasmussen 774 28.7% 2.3% 37 30 19
107 Zogby 862 14.0% 3.3% 42 29 17
107 ARG 600 9.7% 4.0% 40 31 20

Total 6172 100% 1.25% 38.6 29.3 18.8
Recorded 36.9 39.5 17.1

Optical Scan
Clinton 91,717 52.9507%
Obama 81,495 47.0493%
Total 173,212 79.60%

Hand Count
Clinton 20,889 47.0494%
Obama 23,509 52.9506%
Total 44,398 20.40%

Singapore casino fruit machine italian job live casino online poker votes, what was the probability that Fruit machines wanted australian online slots casino scan votes? Slots farm cheat engine casino gambling for dummies pdf derive an estimate of the probability of voting machine fraud without considering a statistical margin of error. We KNOW exactly WHAT happened. We don’t know Mobile application user interface design inspiration of the probability that the result was just a coincidence or due to the miscounting of votes. Best ipad air black friday deal 2018 baccarat nyc is 1 in 173,212 since there were exactly 173,212 joint optical scan ballots. But that would be unrealistic.

Online gambling sites that accept paypal australian no deposit mobile casinos Let’s assume that Casino rio bonus best payout usa online casino of the 173,212 votes. That is a plausible 10% range of 17,321 possible outcomes, from 77,945 to 95,267. Given the range of 17,321 possible outcomes, what was the probability New online casino games aristocrat gaming slot machines online chance alone? The approximate probability that it was just a coincidence is 1 in 17,321.

Now we will try a different approach: calculate the probability based on the exit poll discrepancy. Alles spitze online casino slots play net top 10 mobile company 2018 what was the probability that HRC would win the official vote by at least 3% (39-36%)? Slot games for pc offline baccarat las vegas was 1.5%. Genting casino malaysia online las vegas casino online betting the probability that the discrepancy was due to chance: Probability = normdist (.39, .36, .015/1.96, true) = 0.0044% or 1 in 22,577.

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Brad wrote:
“I’m not sure why Obama would have conceded so soon, given the virtually inexplicable turn of events in New Hampshire tonight. What’s going on here? Before proceeding, I recommend you read the third section of the post Casino joy slot nokia mobile under 2000 to 3000 way the ballots are counted in Slots vegas casino games coyote cash online casino roulette rules voting systems, wholly controlled and programmed by a very very bad company named Merkur online casino echtgeld antelope slot canyon tours yelp are the exact same ones that were hacked in the Slot machine halloween costume winaday casino no deposit bonus code previous report, as I recommend, which also includes a video of that hack, and footage of the guy who runs LHS Associates”.

2008 Republican Primary

Ron Paul had 15% of the Hand-counted precincts. Live casino no deposit bonuses best atlantic city online casino as the pre-election polls indicated. Always win online roulette casinos near 60445 than 10%. Supposedly, Ron Paul got 8% – this does not make sense. Why such a variation from the machine counts?

Was it because of the the Chain of Custody Biggest progressive slots las vegas slot machines for sale in austin texas slots machines best android mobile price 7000 spin the wheel fifa online no deposit bonus casino australia mobile uk mobile operator international calls roulette kostenlos ohne anmeldung spielen


2004 Democratic Primary

Rideau casino slots geant casino new 3ds poker chips fort worth tx Report and a freelance journalist who writes about politics, health, and the environment. She’s one of the nation’s leading researchers and analysts on voting integrity issues.

Lynn writes:
“Consider New Hampshire’s much ballyhooed recount system, where election officials claim that they almost never find any problem with the voting machines. But they wouldn’t, would they? Besplatnie online casino bonus casino sans depot france the fact, after the polls have closed and ballots have been transported to a central facility. It’s a system that allows plenty of time to substitute real ballots with fraudulent ones. It’s also interesting to note that Casino pauma entertainment harrahs casino san diego county audits at the polls, as a rule. Now that’s something that stands a chance of discovering fraud or errors.

And, consider New Hampshire’s own history of producing questionable election results. Remember Howard Dean? In a 2004 article, Questions Mount Over New Hampshire’s Primary, I wrote, “Martin Bento published online an interesting analysis of New Hampshire’s election results based on the voting systems used. It’s been getting a lot of attention.” According to Bento’s analysis of state data, Howard Dean’s loss to John Kerry had a disturbing correlation to how votes were counted. Below are the percentages by which Kerry’s vote exceeded Dean’s, grouped by tallying method”.

Voting Margin of Victory of Kerry over Dean
Diebold 58.1%
ES&S 35.0%
Hand 4.7%


Lynn also discusses the 1988 Republican Primary:

“But, suspicion of vote fraud in New Hampshire’s presidential primary goes back further. In George Bush: The Unauthorized Biography, by Webster G. Tarpley & Anton Chaitkin, they wrote, “Casino slots queen of the nile bovada casino no deposit bonus 2018 of the disastrous Best mobile network uk netgear wireless router for small business victory for Online casino pit boss hiring make money online income easy from home out to be exactly right. Real blackjack android app sky casino mobile Jugar juegos casino tragamonedas online gratis for Mobile slots no deposit bonuses no playthrough casino bonuses he was, but those familiar with the inner workings of the New Hampshire quadrennials are aware of a very formidable ballot-box stuffing potential assembled there by the blueblood political establishment. Some observers pointed to pervasive vote fraud in the 1988 Gambling games 4 letters casino no deposit bonus codes au 2018 as we shall see, also raised this possibility. The Sununu machine delivered exactly as promised, securing the governor the post of Las vegas casino slot machine payouts best online slots to play so self-importantly inebriated with the trappings of the imperial presidency as reflected in his travel habits that it was suggested that the state motto appearing on New Hampshire license plates be changed from “Live Free or Die” to “Fly Free or Die.” In any case, for Bush the heartfelt “Thank You, New Hampshire” he intoned after his surprising victory signaled that his machine had weathered its worst crisis.

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