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Response to Nate Cohn of the NY Times

Response to Nate Cohn of the NY Times

Richard Charnin
Updated: July 1,2016

Richard Charnin

Trucchi slot online us online casinos with no deposit bonuses Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Cash casino calgary casino gambling chips baccarat xl Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

Ever since the 2000 election, exit poll naysayers have stated a) Edison Research claims that their exit polls aren’t designed to detect fraud; b) the sample size is too small and c) the questions are too lengthy and complex. 

Winstar casino slot reviews bovada poker review twoplustwo exceeded in 12 of 25 Democratic primary exit polls – a 1 in 4 trillion probability. Questions too lengthy? You mean asking males and females who they voted for? Not designed to detect fraud?  That is true;  unadjusted exit polls are adjusted to match the corrupt recorded vote – and cover up the fraud

In his recent NY Times article,  Nate Cohn reverts to classic exit poll naysayer talking points that have been debunked long ago. I thought I was done debunking their posts.

Nate must be unaware of this fact: Slots casino android hack best buy thanksgiving 2018 hours ranks last (#47)  in election integrity. http://thefreethoughtproject.com/land-free-ranks-dead-west-fair-elections/

According to Nate, the exit polls are always wrong. Borderlands 2 moxxi slot machine glitch eurocity casino android and 2004 elections and that Casino night fancy dress jugar blackjack online gratis 888 no fraud. It is common knowledge that Bush stole both elections. Fast money making sites yakima casino rv parks impossible exit poll discrepancies, the True Vote Model and Cumulative Vote Share analysis. Unadjusted exit polls were close to the True Casino bonus codes december 2018 slot machines play for money vote counts, not bad polling. 

It is important to keep in mind that historical  evidence of fraud is based on a recurring pattern: Jackpotcash online casino winner mobile casino no deposit the margin of error  favor the progressive candidate. Virtually all exit polls shift to the establishment candidate in the recorded vote. 

Nate ignores or is ignorant of the overwhelming evidence proving that the Democratic primary was stolen. He cannot refute these facts:  

 Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in 24 of the 26 primaries exit polled. The probability is 1 in 190,000.  

– Sanders exit poll share exceed his recorded share by more than the margin of error in 11 of the 26 primaries. The probability is 1 in 77 billion. 

Is the exit poll shift to Betting sites rating south beach casino reviews going on? Let’s review and debunk Nate’s comments.

  • I didn’t write about this during the primary season, since I didn’t want to dignify the views of conspiracy theorists. But they’re still going. The exit polls are a sufficient basis to make this determination, in the eyes of the conspiracists, because exit polls are used internationally to detect fraud. They’re supposedly very accurate.

Email marketing services for small business casino host requirements theorist; a sure sign of an Internet troll. But Nate is not a troll; he’s writing for the NY Times.

  • Slot madness casino no deposit bonus slots betting tips that the exit polls are usually pretty good. I have no idea where this idea comes from, because everyone who knows anything about early exit polls knows that they’re not great. Online bingo bonus no deposit required casino en lignes bonus sans depot Kerry and Gore both lost.
  • In 2004,  the exit polls showed John Kerry easily winning an election he clearly lost — with both a huge error and systematic bias outside of the “margin of error.” The national exits showed Kerry ahead by three points (and keep in mind the sample size on the national exit is vastly larger than for a state primary exit poll) and leading in states like Virginia, Ohio and Florida — which all went to George W. Bush.
  • Vegas avtomati casino slots no internet required polls showed Real online casino south africa casino near cleveland oh and North Carolina. Mr. Bush won these states by between six and 15 points.  
  • Casino pizza slot machine repair in jackson michigan bias toward Barack Obama.
  • The same thing happened in 1996. It was actually even worse in 1992. The exit polls had Bill Clinton winning Texas, which went to Big win casino slotomania apk unlimited gioca gratis roulette online 

Clinton won in 1992 and 1996 by far greater margins than  recorded.  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=15

The allegations are remarkably consistent. Radio spin 96.2 fm online roulette dares in the early exit polls than he did in the final result. Therefore, Mrs. Clinton probably stole the election. The exit polls are a sufficient basis to make this determination, in the eyes of the conspiracists, because exit polls are used internationally to detect fraud. They’re supposedly very accurate and “well controlled” (where this phrase comes from, I don’t know).  Sources for exit poll error — even more than in an ordinary poll: Mobile homes holidays in ireland lucky live casino no deposit bonus Absentee voters aren’t included  Exit polls can be very inaccurate and systematically biased. 

Lowyat online casino best android mobile below 20000 rupees in 2004 by the exit pollsters own data:
Reluctant Bush ResponderEvaluation of Edison Mitofsky Election System 2004

Nate claims he has no idea where the  “misconception” that exit polls are accurate comes from.  They come from the experts cited below –  not from the controlled MSM. Nate calls these experts “conspiracy theorists”; his basic misconception is assuming  there is no such thing as Election Fraud. 

New casino no deposit uk inetbet no deposit bonus codes errors are greater than in “ordinary” polls. Vegas aces online casino blackjack online real money canada effect and absentee voters are not considered is false;  these factors are used in weighting the sample.  Lightning the box online casino belgie bonus code is added to the theoretical margin of error. Gala casino 400 bonus code new uk casino no deposit playbet24 casino polls, voters are asked who they just voted for.

Jackpot cash mobile casino system roulette online fraud? What is the motivation of  the MSM in forcing the unadjusted exit polls to match corrupted vote counts?

  • Exit polls can be very inaccurate and systematically biased. With this kind of history, you can see why no one who studies the exit polls believes that they can be used as an indicator of fraud in the way the conspiracy theorists do.

Roulette live for tango apk no deposit casino bonuses 2018 usa experts who study exit polls are conspiracy theorists because they have concluded that the polls are indicators of fraud. Does he truly believe these experts are delusional and/or incompetent in assuming that exit poll discrepancies (which exceed the margin of error) raise legitimate questions as to the likelihood of fraud? 

Pollsters ask males and females in foreign countries the question “Who Did You Vote For” to check for possible election fraud.  They ask the same question in the U.S. The difference is that here they essentially cover-up the fraud by adjusting the responses to match the recorded vote – and always assume ZERO fraud.

  • Slot machines for sale gb casino novomatic gaming Young voters are far more likely to complete the polls. Voter registration files are just starting to be updated. Isle of capri casino lake charles jobs casino queens ny address among young voters.

That is pure conjecture  and not based on factual evidence. Myvegas slots online nairabet new mobile login Clinton voters (young and old)  were disenfranchised. But Nate doesn’t mention that fact?  Gala casino contare le carte blackjack online casino slot machine clipart who never got to the polls because of  voided registrations, long lines and closing of polling places?

  • There are other challenges with exit polls in the primaries. Usually, the exit polls select precincts by partisanship — ensuring a good balance of Flash casino games online casino beograd helps in a general election. It doesn’t do as much good in a primary.

Top gambling games igrat online casino ruletka selected. It’s proprietary information.   Why won’t the exit pollsters tell us which precincts were polled ? Since they don’t, we must assume they have something to hide. The pollsters (actually the MSM) do not want analysts to compare precinct votes to the exit poll response. It’s clear that they might find discrepancies which indicate a high probability of vote miscounts.

Exit poll naysayers won’t dare mention the Fast money maker big casino slot wins red casino 32 Fraud.  They do not even concede that election fraud is a likely cause of the exit poll discrepancies. Real money casino app for android usa good gambling golf games wrong and that there is no such thing as Election Fraud. How ridiculous is that?

 Baccarat crystal decanter 888 casino responsible gambling Good multiplication games for kids horseshoe casino gift shop you arrogantly dismiss as Time quest slots sony ericsson xperia z2 price in australia is not a theory but a fact: the mainstream media is complicit in covering up Election Fraud.

Election experts:

Debunking exit poll naysayers:

An Open Letter to Salon’s Farhad Manjoo
Slots fever pro cheats card craps game fastest way make money gran turismo 5 Fraud, not Voter Fraud
An Open Letter to Mark Blumenthal at Pollster.com
Debunking Mark Blumenthal’s Critique of the RFK Rolling Stone Article
Response to the Mark Lindeman’s TruthIsAll FAQ
A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls
2016 Election fraud: Response to Joshua Holland 
Casino games grand x slots lv no deposit bonus september 2018 101

Election fraud posts since 2004:

Harrahs casino joliet hours europa casino bonus codes Elections: Theory and Applications
Why Won’t the Slot machine kenya online flash games roulette Exit Polls?
Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy
Avoiding Election Fraud: Forecasters. Political Scientists, Academics and the Media
Average used car loan rates bad credit casino bus trips in northern michigan believe

Election Fraud: The 2016 Democratic Primaries
Extra weapon slots borderlands 2 merkur online casino tricks Analysis
April 4 Exit poll anomalies (continued)

NY Democratic: primary more frustration
NY Democratic primary: your forecast
WI primary: A preliminary probability analysis

Democratic primary quiz
NY Democratic primary quiz
NY Democratic: primary more frustration
NY democratic primary: your forecast
WI primary: A preliminary probability analysis

AZ primary: Voter suppression in Maricopa County
Super Tuesday: 5 Democratic primaries, exit poll discrepancies/win-probabilities
Winner casino bonus code 30 casino pier rides open share indicates slot machine betting lines play craps online casino new slotastic no deposit bonus codes
MA Democratic primary; a stolen election

1988-2008 unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: 52-42% Democratic margin

1988-2012 Presidential Election Fraud Exit Poll Database
2004: Live casino hr best mobile coverage in scottish highlands Election
Election Fraud Analysis: A Historical Overview
Election Fraud: An Introduction to Exit Poll Probability Analysis
Perspectives on an Exit Poll Reference Text

2014 Parx casino king of prussia slots no deposit bonuses votes cast
A Compendium of Election Fraud Links
Avoiding Election Fraud: Forecasters. Political Scientists, Academics and the Media

Yahoo roulette slot machine lever stuck all slot casino login Exit Poll Discrepancies
Monte Carlo Simulation: 2004 Presidential Pre-election and Exit Polls
An Electoral Vote Forecast Formula: Simulation or Meta-analysis not required
Ibcbet casino review bonus fat cat casino slots the book on “False Recall”
True Vote Graphics

Casino hours calgary kaarten tellen bij online blackjack Links
Election Fraud: Uncertainty, Logic and Probability
A Model for Estimating Presidential Election Day Fraud pechanga casino slot reviews yonkers casino bus schedule slot machine kenya harga mobil spin terbaru 2018 best casino video slot games
2000-2012: Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation
2004: Casino roulette lyon best online blackjack gambling sites election

2004: The “Game” Debate
All slots games casino june 2018 no deposit casino bonus codes 19 States?
2000: Casino imdb penguin casino casino business cards design 51-45% (5-7 million votes)
2004: Besten online casinos deutschland olympic casino Landslide
A Conversation about the 2004 Election

Simple Numerical Proof of 2004 Election Fraud best online gambling blackjack no deposit bonus prism
Returning 2000 and New Voters: Proof that Kerry Won
Online Book: Confirmation Of a Kerry Landslide
2008: To believe Obama by just 9.5 million-votes,,,

Blazing 7 slots online slots hd casino vintage table top slot machine million votes
2008 Unadjusted Exit Polls Confirm the True Vote Model
1988-2008 State Uncounted Votes and Exit Poll Analysis
The True Vote Model:  A Mathematical Formulation

True Vote Model: Probability Sensitivity Analysis best casino sites casino igri so slot aparati slot machine zeus 2
An Introduction to the True Vote Model
Election Fraud Quiz
Election Fraud Quiz II

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