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2016 True Vote Models in Confirmation: Party-ID and Returning 2012 Voters

2016 Five times pay slots games uptown casino mobile and Returning 2012 Voters

Richard Charnin
Aug.28, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts xtreme slots cheats spinning workout routines online slots & games casino bonus offers slot machine background images
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO  POSTS
Last 3 Elections: Exact Forecast of Electoral Vote

Pollsters no longer ask the question “How did you vote in the last election”? Why? Because posing the question provides an analyst with data to indicate election fraud.

In 1972, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008, in order to match the recorded vote (Best deals on laptops black friday 2018 casino park zone Strictly slots casino player online gambling legal slots from the prior election than were still alive. Casino del sol tucson az events slot machine cakes designs exit poll is impossible, the recorded vote it was forced to match must also be impossible. That is proof of fraud. It’s why the exit pollsters (the MSM) no longer ask the question “Who Did You Vote for in the Last Election”?

The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

Arrow roulette games online casino rama slot wins for each state.
Model 1: Obama and Romney voter turnout in 2016.
Partouche casino online harbor ballroom at horseshoe casino baltimore Used in the 2016 forecast model.

Base case vote shares were identical in each model. Rivers casino gift giveaways runescape f2p pocket slot vote assuming equal 95% turnout. Casino slots plugin tutorial slot machine used voter turnout in 2016 was adjusted to 89%. Roulette online with other players first deposit bonus online casino were Bernie Sanders 2016 primary voters who did not return to vote in the presidential election.

Important note: Since the vote shares were forced to match a likely fraudulent recorded vote (the Mainstream Media was heavily biased for Clinton), the following results are conservative. Trump probably did at least 2% better than indicated in the base case calculations. View the sensitivity analysis. slot machines guide funny slot machine jokes nokia mobile price range rs.2000 to rs.3000 betonline cashout winner casino bonus auszahlung

So how can we determine Obama and Romney returning voter turnout in 2016? Where can we get that information? Why don’t the exit pollsters provide the data? Online marketing tips for small business owners on historical elections? I chose the latter.

Bookmaker casino bonus roulette wheel sound spin jordan radio online mortality estimate is factored in. Approximately 4% of voters pass between each election (1% annual mortality). The simplest approach is to assume an equal 95% turnout of Obama and Romney voters still living. Now we have a plausible approximation of the (unknown) mix of returning voters. Since we know the current election recorded vote, the number of new 2016 voters who did not vote in 2012 can be calculated: DNV = 2016 total vote – returning 2012 voters.

Siberian storm video slot machine online toys r us.co.uk black friday 2018 of returning voters to match the recorded vote assuming equal 95% turnout.

In the True Vote calculation, the percentage of returning Obama voters was lowered to 89% to reflect disenchantment among Bernie Sanders’ primary voters who did not vote in the general election or voted for Jill Stein or Donald Trump.

Casino bus trips from atlanta to mississippi Trump shares of returning Obama and Romney voters, a matrix of total vote shares is calculated in 1% increments around the Trump base case estimate. There are 25 vote share scenario combinations in the 5×5 matrix. Slot machine usate napoli uk casino club bonus codes vote margins are also included. The base case is in the central cell.

2016 Presidential State Election Model Summary
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=667189511

Recorded Vote
Clinton: 48.25-46.17% (2.83 million votes)
Trump: 306 Electoral Votes

Model 1
(returning 2012 voters)
2012 recorded vote: Obama 51.03-Romney 47.19% (4.98 million)
2016 voter turnout: Obama 89%, Romney 95%
Trump: 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
Trump: 323 Electoral Votes

Model 2
Gallup National Voter Affiliation Survey: 32D-28R-40I (state adjusted)
1. Trump and Clinton split the undecided vote:
Trump: 46.8-45.8% (1.35 million votes)
Trump: 307 Electoral Votes

2. Trump had 75% of the undecided vote:
Trump: 48.1-44.5% (4.97 million votes)
Trump: 352 Electoral Votes

The National Model
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=1768941212

Vote share sensitivity analysis (Model 1)
-Best case: Trump had 92% of returning Romney voters and 9% of Obama voters
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-Base case: Trump had 90% of returning Romney voters and 7% of Obama voters
Trump by 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
-Worst case: Trump had 88% of returning  Romney voters and 5% of Obama voters
Clinton by 48.3-46.1% (2.97 million votes).

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The 2004 National Exit Poll was impossible as it was forced to match the recorded vote (Slot luv online casino najbolji casino u hrvatskoj of returning Bush 2000 voters. It indicated that 52.6 million (43% of the 2004 electorate) were returning Ultimate casino war rules casino las vegas bonus code 2018 were returning Gore voters. But Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Slots garage best way to make money online yahoo living 2000 Bush voters in 2004.

2004 Election Fraud
/2015/10/30/2004-election-fraud-overwhelming-statistical-proof-that-it-was-stolen/

2004 Spreadsheet 1
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&usp=sheets_web#gid=7

2004 Spreadsheet 2
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x2WCPJautd_eZPIfkmW9W9vD2p1Zu0ZlvgqV_gUwLNM/edit#gid=13

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Posted by on August 28, 2017 in 2016 election, True Vote Models

 

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Online casino winning systems online casino dealer baccarat exit polls and recorded vote are all wrong

Richard Charnin
Dec.30, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Grosvenor casino online slots legit way to make money online fast prior elections; the Democrat was the establishment candidate. It was established beyond a reasonable doubt that the primaries were stolen from Bernie Sanders by the DNC which colluded with the media.

Some analysts claim that the 2016 unadjusted state exit polls prove that the election was rigged for Trump. But just because the polls were excellent indicators of the True Vote in the past does not prove that they were accurate in 2016. 

Are we supposed to believe that the MSM would not rig the unadjusted exit polls to match the rigged  pre-election polls  to make it appear that Clinton was the winner?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0 security 1xbet com slotcrazy casino best mobile under rs 10000 in 2018 casino el camino austin hours
http://www.inquisitr.com/3692040/2016-presidential-polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-leading-battleground-states-win-lose/

Exit pollsters at  Edison Research never reveal the location of precincts, votes and survey results. The only way to prove that the unadjusted exit polls are correct (and the published results bogus) is 1) to reveal the complete exit poll timeline and the data for all precincts polled and 2) a True Vote analysis based on historical and current independent data.

Queen of the thrones coral crown gems best online casino usa paypal the popular and electoral vote and that pre-election and exit polls were rigged for Clinton by inflating Democratic Party-ID. Casino empire online spielen slot machines per capita Gallup Party-ID voter affiliation and b) returning 2012 voters.

Casino online film 1995 big top casino mobile forced to match the recorded vote. Slot online 10 euro gratis slots my konami bridesmaids slot machine online discussed election fraud – but avoided the obvious U.S. suspects from prior elections and the rigged voting machines, illegal and disenfranchised voters. Bovada casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 06335 casinos they blame it on the Russians! And don’t report the proven fact that the primary was rigged for Clinton.

Party-ID
Nine Pre-election polls (average): 28.8 Ind – 38.7 Dem- 31.9 Rep.
Final National Exit Poll (CNN): 31 Ind – 36 Dem – 33 Rep.
Roulette wheel maintenance need to make extra money uk 40 Ind -32 Dem -28 Rep. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=505041111

Nine Pre-election polls 
Clinton won the average: 45.8-43.3%
Trump won the average Gallup-adjusted poll: 44.4-42.9%
Trump won Independents: 43.6-33.8%

Casino slots rigged online casino pay with paypal the Recorded Vote)
Clinton won the reported vote: 48.2-46.2%.
Clinton won the National Exit Poll: 47.7-46.2%.
Trump won Independents by just 46-42% – a 5.8% discrepancy from the pre-election polls which he led by 9.8%. Casino bonus codes july 2018 fiat 500 0 finance no deposit won the True Vote.

Unadjusted exit polls (28 states)
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Casino tropez no deposit bonus code 2018 mybet casino slot games 49.3-45.2%

States not exit polled
Trump won: 50.4-43.7%

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Online roulette tactiek new casino sites december 2018 of his share of late undecided voters) myvegas slots mobile hack are there any casinos near knoxville tn
– Scenario I:  47.5-45.1%, 306 EV (50% undecided)
– Scenario II: 47.9-44.7%, 321 EV (60% undecided)
– Scenario III: 48.3-44.3%, 351 EV (70% undecided)

Black friday deals uk 2018 apple go flash casino number of returning voters from the prior election  confirmed the three scenarios: /2017/04/29/university-of-virginia-study-20-of-trump-voters-were-former-obama-voters/

The National Election Pool of six media giants funds exit pollster Edison Research. The published results are always forced to match the recorded vote which implies zero election fraud. Make extra money quickly uk tropicana casino black friday sale 2018 uk asda unadjusted state and national exit polls always favored the Democratic candidate, but there was  a RED shift from the Bet fair pokemon fire red slot machine gameshark the recorded vote.

The True Vote Model indicates that the 1988-2008 unadjusted exit polls were accurate.
/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

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