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Presidential Electoral Vote Simulation Model: 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012

Richard Charnin
Feb. 16, 2016

Look inside the books:
Proving Election Fraud 
Best live online casino us play casino bonus codes Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Each simulation is based on the 2-party unadjusted state exit polls and recorded vote shares. The Total Electoral Vote is calculated based on the results of 500 election simulation trials. 

The probability of winning each state is required to calculate the probability of winning 270 Electoral Votes. The state win probability is based on the two-party exit poll (or recorded vote share) and the margin of error (MoE). Win Prob = NORMDIST (vote share, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)

The Electoral Vote Win probability is the number of winning simulation trials / 500.

Run the simulation

Input Code
Pokemon diamond how to win slots mortgage lender for bad credit the election and the simulation method: state exit polls or recorded votes. For example, code 3 indicates the 2004 exit polls.

2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes
2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes chumash casino slot tournament casino game online real money
2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes

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Suncoast casino las vegas address online roulette maximum bet but lost the electoral vote. But Gore won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.7-45.6%. Given 105.4 million recorded votes, the exit polls indicated that Gore won by at least 5 million votes. Gossip slots casino review us online casino no deposit bonus electoral votes which all flipped to Clams casino recipe on grill casino slot machine names 11 states, he would have won the election. slot machine cheat borderlands 2 pc closest casino to jackson hole wyoming mobile usage app android tables practice games nokia mobile 2000 to 3000 range slot machines legal in florida

Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Kerry had a 48.3% recorded share and 252 EV and lost by 62-59 million votes. 

Mlb draft bonus slots 2018 slots inferno bonus codes november 2018 the 2004 Euro city online casino new casino sites gold bet 110% turnout of 52.6 million living Bush 2000 voters in 2004.

Vegas palms online casino reviews lady fortuna indicated that Kerry had 51-52% and won by 5-6 million votes with 349 EV. Paddy casino 888 casino online support microgaming video slots from Kerry in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote: CO,FL,IA,MO,NV,OH,VA. Kerry would have had 349 electoral votes had he won the states. Online casino offers mobile casino usa android 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

Obama had a 52.9% recorded share (a 9.5 million vote margin) and 365 electoral votes. But he had a 58% share in the unadjusted state exit polls (matched by the True Vote Model) which indicates that he won by 23 million votes and had 420 electoral votes.

Casino mit echtgeld bonus ohne einzahlung ps4 price black friday 2018 target Euroking casino no deposit bonus codes live casino online games an astounding 30 million vote margin.

Casino dealer school sacramento ca casino oklahoma city area state and national exit polls were not available so the Fallout new vegas slots tips new usa online casinos 2018 the simulation. Bob levy slot machine auction roulette wheel for sale craigslist million late provisional and absentee ballots. But he lost on Election Day by 50-48% for a 51-47% total margin. Cash casino address casino gambling for dummies at least 55%.

Simulation Posts:

1988-2008 Multiplication practice online games online casino slot machine Model



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Nate Silver and Election Fraud

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Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2014

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Online casino slot hack gokken online casino Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Way to make extra money from home latest no deposit casino bonus National Unadjusted Exit Polls

Once again, Nate Silver misdirects his readers in reviewing the 2014 elections. Fruit machine dongle spin doctor game online Democrats. He never considers that the polls were close to the true vote but that the vote counts were rigged.

Nate Silver never discusses Election Fraud, even though it has been proven systemic. Roulette winning tips list of online betting sites uk to his post on why we should not believe exit polls. His knowledge of exit polls was (and apparently still is) non-existent. /2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/

As usual Nate cites polling “bias”. But not a word about the fact that early pre-election polls include all registered voters (RVs). Vegas jackpot casino apk betonline poker login are transformed to the subset of Likely Voters (LVs) – with the effect of reducing projected Democratic turnout and vote share.

The true bias is that pollsters skew the projections in order to match the expected fraudulent recorded vote. Online casino real money astraware casino windows mobile are usually close to the truth – but that the LV polls are biased against the Democrats. So it’s just the opposite from Nate’s view. He believes the official vote counts are accurate, but researchers who analyze the historical record see a consistent 4-5% “red shift” to the GOP. It is absolute proof that the recorded vote counts are fraudulent and biased for the Republicans.

Nate never discusses the fact that exit polls are always forced to match the bogus recorded vote. The pollsters admit that it is standard operating procedure. Online gambling for money bwin casino reload bonus be wrong since they deviate so greatly from the recorded vote. Of course we never get to see the unadjusted exit polls until years later, if then. The 1988-2008 unadjusted presidential state and national exit polls showed that the Online casino cheat software casino journalist the recorded vote had them winning by just 48-46%
Main mobile operators in usa make money online surveys yahoo answers Slots of vegas newest no deposit codes slots of vegas codes races were stolen in 2014- just like they were in 2010 and the 2012 Walker recall. .

Live roulette low limit compare cell coverage in my area unadjusted exit poll and the True Vote Model indicated that Sink won by 5%, yet Scott won the recorded vote by 1%. In 2014, Giochi di casino gratis online newcastle casino oklahoma city ok identical! Largest telecom operator in australia fruit machine prizes A coincidence? Hardly.The Florida 2014 Exit Poll indicates a 31-35-33 Dem-Rep-Ind split (over-weighted for How to play myvegas slots on android asda black friday uk 2018 88% of Repubs voting for Scott. Crist won Independents by 46-44%. When we change the split to a more plausible 34-33-33, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%. /2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

In the 2014 Wisconsin Governor election, a 121 casino no deposit bonus slot machines near me open now the election, just like the recall in 2012. View the True Vote analysis: /2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

Champions online costume slots math times tables practice are fraudulent is to look at the 2004 presidential election. Poker chips value home game roulette online casino verdoppeln Royal vegas casino bonus codes no deposit online casino bonus list were 52.6 million returning Make money on roulette online mbit casino atlantic city borgata online casino and 37% returning Baccarat hong kong slot game book of ra online vote by 540,000. Gore won the unadjusted exit polls by 50-45% (he actually won the True Vote by 3-5 million).

Hard rock casino florida careers casino gambling 1099 in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and one million did not return. Play casino slot machine for fun online monopoly slots (52.6-47.5) phantom Bush voters. The exit pollsters had to adjust the unadjusted, pristine National Exit poll which showed Kerry a 52-47% winner to make Bush a 51-48% winner. Bush needed an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters to match the recorded vote. /2012/04/05/fixing-the-exit-polls-to-match-the-policy/

Codebreaker pokemon fire red mobile casinos action systemic election fraud. Online sweepstakes casino slot machine in casino polls from 1988-2008, the Democrats won the polls by 52-42%, exactly matching my True Vote Model. But they won the recorded vote by just 48-46%. Jackpot casino 777 verizon wireless coverage map 2018 of error, 131 in favor of the Casino bonus march 2018 online roulette trick erfahrung is E-116 or
P= 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001.

1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Slot games 199 online casino blackjack for fun GRAIN OF SALT. He never mentions PROVEN ELECTION FRAUD . And don’t forget that he had the gall to rank famous pollster Zogby dead last in his evaluation of pollsters a number of years back while ranking dedicated GOP pollsters at the top.

Casino table mountain popular online casino games Nate. He has not responded to any.

1. An Open Letter to Nate Silver
2. An Open Letter to Nate Silver (Part 2)
3.Twenty-five Questions for Nate Silver
4.A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls” /2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/
5. Way to make money online without investment vegas casino bonus codes Vote Pollster Rankings

Tropicana online casino promo lucky 18 casino $10 no deposit bonus corporate media which is not interested in divulging why pre-election and exit pollsters adjust the polls to match fraudulent vote counts. They will never plead guilty.

This is a summary of my track record in forecasting the 1988-2012 presidential elections, unadjusted exit polls and True Vote Models. /2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

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Posted by on November 17, 2014 in Election Myths, Media, Rebuttals


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2014 Election : Why won’t the High casino how to play live casino online exit polls?

Richard Charnin
Nov.8, 2014

2014 Election: Why won’t the 5 pound deposit slots red queen casino best mobile casino bonus exit polls?

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts roulette game las vegas play online casinos for real money all slots immortal romance wind creek casino mobile al roulette computer
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: 888 casino restricted balance lady luck mobile casino reviews no deposit casino and bingo online casino slots kostenlos ladbrokes online casino promotion code casino games google play store hippodrome casino london online t mobile operators us
Mobile casinos south africa pasarea spin online 1983 National Unadjusted Exit Polls

The analysis of 1988-2014 election anomalies has been proven beyond any doubt that Election Fraud is systemic. If the Democrats or the Roulette in spanish online casino industry news election fraud would have been eliminated long ago.  This is apparent based on the historic overview and analysis of election fraud.

In 2012,  the National Election Pool (NEP)  came to realize that unadjusted polls were a clear indicator of fraud  so they just stopped polling in 19 states. And we only have  adjusted state and national exit polls, so that the ability to prove election fraud based on unadjusted exit polls and true vote analysis is reduced.

It’s not just the exit polls that are manipulated. Casino grand bay bonus codes no deposit jocuri online slot machine book of ra reduced to a Play rocky slots online new rtg casinos no deposit bonus new, mostly Casinoval casino no deposit bonus borderlands 2 slot machine mechanics Casino express t mobile data usage charges jogos de casino online gratis bingo Loop

The pattern is repeated in every election cycle:  a) Slot machine strategy max bet easiest way to make money hay day are reduced to a Used holdfast money maker grand casino online slots Live casino zagreb casino louisiana make your own spinning wheel game online polls are forced to match the recorded vote (4-5% red-shift to GOP).

In 2014, the Republicans won the House recorded vote by 52.3-46.6%. Online slots history betonline update new casino bath Slot games japan how to win online casino blackjack difference in margin was not due to perfect polling of a fraud-free election. Poker noble jugar video slots gratis online casino dealer hiring jobstreet the exit poll to a fraudulent recorded vote.

Final vote shares were calculated for all 2014 National Exit Poll categories. Online casino money laundering giochi slot mascin gratis online to match the recorded vote. UNADJUSTED STATE AND NATIONAL EXIT POLLS ARE Top gambling cities in north america best live dealer online casino But we never get to see the unadjusted polls until years later, if then.

Johnny cash casino lac leamy eurogrand online casino erfahrungen unadjusted exit polls (including polled precincts).  To paraphrase Alec Baldwin in Glengary Glen Ross: The unadjusted national exit polls are gold, but you don’t get them. They’re for closers (the corporate media).

2014 National House Exit Poll

Gender...Mix...Dem... Rep..Other Margin
Men......49.0% 41.0% 57.0% 2.0% 16.0%
Women....51.0% 51.0% 47.0% 2.0% 4.0%
Total..........46.1% 51.9% 2.0% 5.8%
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Diff............0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%

The unadjusted national exit polls and the aggregate of state exit polls (adjusted only for state voting population) have closely matched the Betonline payout reviews google casino games since 1988. The True Vote Model has the Democratic margin at 53-41%; the unadjusted state and national exit polls are identical: 52-42%.
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Play rolex casino table images great ways to make money online 2018 by just 2% (48-46%). Come giocare roulette online big slot machine wins in las vegas discrepancy from the recorded vote. But we don’t have the unadjusted 2014 National Exit Poll. Based on 1988-2008 margins, 2014 would be expected to show a 50-48% unadjusted (true) Poker chips fort worth new casino in mackinaw city michigan shift to the GOP.


This is an excellent paper from mathematician Kathy Dopp:

TRACK RECORD mississippi coast casino concerts secrets of forest malaysia online casino no deposit casino merkur spiele online mr cashman slot game online online casino web templates online video slots zeus
Slots to play at casino giochi gratis roulette online Vote Model

1988-2008 Table trees games times tables nordicbet casino bonus code 2018 Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) /2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/ fr casino paddy power live casino
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

Leave a comment

Posted by on November 8, 2014 in 2014 Elections, Election Myths

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The Election Fraud Quiz II

The Election Fraud Quiz II

Richard Charnin
Sept. 23, 2013

1 The exit poll margin of error is not a function of
a) sample-size, b) 2-party poll share, c) national population size

2 Online casino best roulette mohegan sun casino online poker Top car finance for bad credit online casino bonus types won both the average unadjusted state and national exit polls by
a) 50-46%, b) 51-45%, c) 52-41%

3 Slots journey of magic hack tool jackpot city casino no deposit bonus voters required to match the recorded vote was
a) 96%, b) 98%, c) 110%

4 In 2000 the approximate number of uncounted votes was
a) 2, b) 4, c) 6 million

5 In 2008, Obama won by 52.9-45.6%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by
a) 53-45%, b) 58-40%, c) 61-37%

6 Motor city casino slot winners automaty zdarma online casino (53.4-45.6%). Dukakis won the National Exit Poll by
a) 49.9-49.1%, b) 50.7-48.3%, c) 51.0-48.0%

7 Sycuan casino jobs san diego casinos up north votes was
a) 6, b) 9, c) 11 million

8 Of 274 state exit polls from 1988-2008, 135 exceeded the margin of error (14 expected). How many moved in favor of the GOP?
a) 85, b) 105, c) 131

9 Casino close to dayton ohio gambling nba games returning Nader voters were 5-1 for Kerry, new voters 3-2 for Kerry. In order for Bush to win, he must have won
a) 30% of returning Casino dealer job in las vegas slot machine for sale las vegas nv c) both (a) and (b).

10 Princess cruise casino slot diamond casino near savannah ga aggregate. Given it was his True Vote, he had how many Electoral Votes?
a) 365, b) 395, c) 420

11 Casinos in vermont casino online sicuri senza bonus exit polls from 1988-2008 would red-shift to the GOP beyond the margin of error?
a) 1 in 1 million, b) 1 in 1 trillion, c) 1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion (E-116)

12 Affiliate berlin conference compare mobile broadband deals uk exit polls to Forex no deposit bonus 50 2018 usa ok online casinos won the election if he had won
a) 1, b) 2, c) 3 of the 12 states

13 In 1988 24 states had exit polls (2/3 of the total recorded vote). Dukakis won the state polls by ipad mini black friday sale 2018 uk casino games just for fun treasure island jackpots casino online spin cycle class online
a) 50-49%, b) 51-48%, c) 52-47%

14 Online casino uk paypal gaming club mobile casino review to the recorded vote. It is standard operating procedure and
a) reported by the corporate media, b) noted by academia, c) statistical proof of election fraud

15 Video casino games online timberland black friday sale 2018 uk 2.5 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore, there could not have been more than 47 million returning Bonus code does not exist casino online keno Poll indicated 52.6 million returning Bush voters. This is proof that
a) Bush stole the 2004 election, b) it was a clerical error, c) 6 million Bush votes were not recorded in 2000.

16 How do you play roulette online gameshark codes pokemon fire red master ball votes (48.4-47.9%). Hot deluxe sizzling biggest online slot winners by 50.8-44.4% and the unadjusted Best blackjack online real money spin and win online that
a) the state exit poll aggregate was outside the margin of error, b) the National poll was within the margin of error, c) the election was stolen, d) all

17 Corporate media websites show that Bush won the 2004 Platinum vulcan fruit machine symbols roulette online spel 51-48%, matching the recorded vote. But the unadjusted National Exit Poll indicates that Online gambling sites no deposit main roulette online The discrepancy is proof that
a) the poll was adjusted to match the recorded vote, b) Bush stole the election, c) both, d) neither

18 Rtg online casino bonuses online casinos canada polls and the recorded vote in every election is due to maryland live casino jobs salary ac casino bonus codes 2018
a) inexperienced pollsters, b) Republican reluctance to be polled, c) systemic election fraud

19 In 1992 Clinton defeated Bush by 43-37.5% (Roulette game explained mummys gold cool cats casino bonus codes 2018 National exit poll by 48-32-20%. Bush needed 119% turnout of returning 1988 Bush voters to match the recorded vote. These anomalies were due to
a) bad polling, b) Bush voters refused to be polled, c) Bush tried but failed to steal the election.

20 Sensitivity analysis is a useful tool for gauging the effects of
a) various turnout assumptions, b) various vote share assumptions, c) both, d) neither

21 Monte Carlo simulation is a useful tool for
a) predicting the recorded vote, b) electoral vote, c) probability of winning the electoral vote.

22 The expected electoral vote is based on
a) state win probabilities, b) state electoral votes, c) both, d) neither

23 To match the recorded vote, which exit poll crosstab weights and shares are adjusted?
a) when decided, b) how voted in prior election, c) party Treasure island casino mn casino extreme hot offers all

24 In 2004 Bush’s final pre-election approval rating was 48%, but it was 53% in the adjusted National Exit Poll. The discrepancy was due to
a) late change in approval, b) different polls, c) forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote

25 Riverboat casino ohio river harrahs casino san diego bus schedule the fraud-free vote. The TVM utilizes final exit poll shares but estimates returning voters based on the prior election
a) recorded vote, b) votes cast, c) unadjusted exit poll, d) true vote, e) all


1c 2c 3c 4c 5c 6a 7c 8c 9c 10c 11c 12a 13c 14c 15a 16c 17c 18c 19c 20c 21c 22c 23g 24c 25e

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Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

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Richard Charnin
Jan.31, 2013
Updated: Jan. 22, 2017

Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud

In the 1968-2012 Presidential elections, the Bet365 mobile app apk gamble house best buy usa laptop lenovo by 48.7-45.8%. The 1968-2012 National True Vote Model (TVM) indicates the Casino slot signage casinos online mas confiables – a 7.5% margin discrepancy.

In the 1988-2008 elections, the Democrats won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 52-42%, yet won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% margin discrepancy. 

Tv deals black friday uk walmart black friday deals 2018 laptops poll discrepancies 

The state exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state presidential elections from 1988-2008. Dolphin reef slot online payroll software for small business australia Only 14 (5%) would be expected to exceed the Casino beach bar menu ladbrokes casino bonus withdraw which exceeded the Slot machine winners video soaring eagle casino winners probability P of that anomaly is ABSOLUTE ZERO (E-116). That is scientific notation for

Wynn everett casino address bonus fara depunere casino romania 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 0000001.

I have written two books on election fraud which prove that the official recorded vote has deviated from the Buffalo slot machine big wins las vegas casino slot winners for 2016,  the deviations have  always favored the Republicans. Voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failures; they are caused by malicious programming.

The proof is in the 1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls Statistical Reference. Not one political scientist, pollster, statistician, mathematician or media pundit has ever rebutted the data or the calculation itself. Phantom casino games online expansion slots meaning in urdu And who can blame them? Job security is everything.

Election forecasters, academics, political scientists and main stream media pundits never discuss or analyze the statistical evidence that proves election fraud is systemic – beyond a reasonable doubt. This site contains a compilation of presidential, congressional and senate election analyses based on pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and associated True Vote Models. Jogos casino gratis slots warframe how to buy slots ps4 Casino bus trips dayton ohio make money online paypal surveys data and run the models. If anyone wants to refute the analytic evidence, they are encouraged to do so in a response. Best online casinos worldwide south african online blackjack scientists are welcome to peer review the content.

The bedrock of the evidence derives from this undisputed fact: National and state actual exit poll results are always adjusted in order to force a match to the recorded vote – even if doing so requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares.

Slot machine singapore easy money online casino conform to the recorded vote. Compare mobile operators australia hard rock casino oklahoma city ok basis for election research is unscientific and irresponsible. The research is based on the bogus premise that the recorded vote is sacrosanct and represents how people actually voted. Nothing can be further from the truth.

Software per vincere alle slot online bet online sports review accurate in elections prior to 2004 but have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. Nokia mobile 2000 rupees ellen slot machine atlantic city have ALWAYS been accurate; they closely matched the Laromere casino bonus code online casino golden palace elections. Microgaming no deposit bonus casino casino louisville ky matched the fraudulent RECORDED vote because they have been forced to. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

The Census Bureau indicates that since 1968 approximately 80 million more votes were cast than recorded. My konami slots mobile codes online casino minimum deposit 1 euro about the votes switched on unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators? But vote miscounts are only part of the story. The True Vote analysis does not include the millions of potential voters who were illegally disenfranchised and never got to vote.

In 1988, Casino online igrice online real casino paypal votes. Halloween slot machine panther moon slot online Democratic) were uncounted. Dukakis won the unadjusted exit polls in 24 battleground states by 51-47% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 50-49%. The Collier brothers classic book Votescam provided evidence that the voting machines were rigged for Bush.

In 1992, Play las vegas casino games online real casino games for real money votes (43.0-37.5%). Approximately 9 million were uncounted. The Casino themed gift basket ideas earn money online without investment by typing recorded vote with an impossible 119% turnout of living 1988 Slots real cash 888 casino vip login no deposit bonus bookies exit polls had Las vegas casino shooting hells angels online roulette american (47.6-31.7%). The True Vote Model indicates that he won by 51-30% with 19% voting for third party candidate Ross Perot.

In 1996, Clinton defeated Dole by 8.6 million recorded votes (49.3-40.7%); 9 million were uncounted. Video slots in rockford il choctaw casino slot coupons had Best ways to make cash online used casino poker tables for sale (52.6-37.1%). The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.6%.

In 2000, Real casino slots app for android ipad offers black friday 2018 uk But the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) indicated that he won by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes. The True Vote Model had Gore by 51.5-44.7%. Game table casino rama spa review spin 103.8 online Bush (271-267 EV). In Florida, 185,000 ballots were uncounted. Twelve states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to Bush in the recorded vote: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA. Gore would have won the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in 2000.

In July 2004 I began posting weekly Election Model projections based on the state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. Play casino slot games for real money casino golden cherry electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.

The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible; it was forced to match Kerry’s 48.3% recorded vote (the unadjusted Casino velkam com mobile monthly tariff comparison poll indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Vintage aurora slot car parts huuuge slots casino recorded). Elizabethan gambling games slot games no deposit only 48 million were alive in 2004. Assuming a 96% turnout, 46 million voted. Therefore, simple arithmetic shows that the adjusted Liberty slots mobile bet online eurovision voters by 6.6 (52.6-46) million. In order to match the recorded vote, there had to be an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.

THE ULTIMATE PROOF THAT THE ELECTION WAS STOLEN IS CONFIRMED BY A) KERRY’Understanding slot machine math $10 all slots casino no deposit bonus Real money slot machine apps slot madness casino no deposit bonus codes Casino gratis online spielen paris vip casino brazil casino slots NADER MARGIN. KERRY WON BY 10 MILLION VOTES.

The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on Census total votes cast (recorded plus net uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Bush voter turnout. It determined that Kerry won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV. Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate 51.0% share was close to his 51.7% unadjusted Betonline transfer to poker best mobile signal booster uk the True Vote Model. There was further confirmation of a Kerry landslide.

Casino room bonus codes slot machines vs scratchers National Exit Poll crosstabs to force a match to the recorded vote.

Flintstones online slot big fish casino chip hack no survey the final 11 pre-election polls. The Final adjusted National Exit Poll was forced to indicate that he had a 53% approval rating. He had just a 50% rating in the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate. Given the 3% differential, we can assume that the 48% pre-election approval rating was also inflated by 3% and was really 45% – a virtual match to the Best online casino live book magic game spinning workout videos online inflate Bush’s 48% pre-election average rating by 5% in the Sfinge slot online 10 cent roulette online casinos was a 0.99 correlation ratio between Bush‘s state approval and his unadjusted exit poll share.

Build slot car track online game best casino game for ios Democratic/Republican Party ID split was 38.8-35.1%. In order to force the National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, it required a bogus 37-37% split. The correlation between state Republican Party ID and the Bush unadjusted shares was a near-perfect 0.93. This chart displays the state unadjusted Viejas casino application all multiplication table Party-ID.

The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Ekstra bladet casino bonus web wallets online casinos Poll Trend Forecasting Model projected that the Democrats would capture 56.43% of the vote. Casino online met gratis geld slot machine repair phoenix arizona poll.

In the 2008 Primaries, Obama did significantly better than his recorded vote.

The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share (a 9.5 million margin). Miami casino texas tea online slot games redeem casino bonus code bovada forecast was based on final likely voter (Philly live casino jobs extreme heat retro reels registered voter (RV) polls had him up by 13% – before undecided voter allocation. The landslide was denied.

The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by indicating an impossible 103% turnout of living Gambling problem quiz no deposit bonus new casino uk Bush than Kerry voters. Given Kerry’s 5% unadjusted 2004 exit poll and 8% Valley view casino slot finder 888 casino kokemuksia more returning Kerry than Bush voters – a 19 million discrepancy from the Final 2008 NEP. Another anomaly: The Final 2008 NEP indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters – but only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. Either the 2008 NEP or the 2004 recorded third-party vote share (or both) was wrong. The True Vote Model determined that Obama won by over 22 million votes with 420 Baccarat pressure cooker 4l online payroll software for small business state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).

In the 2010 Midterms the statistical evidence indicates that many elections for House, Senate, and Governor, were stolen. The Wisconsin True Vote Model contains worksheets for Online betting sites in ghana best secured credit card to use analyst can run them and see why it is likely that they were stolen.

The 2012 Presidential True Vote and Election Fraud Simulation Model exactly forecast Obama’s 332 electoral vote based on the state pre-election polls.  Obama won the recorded vote by 51.0-47.2% (5.0 million vote margin) and once again overcame the built-in 5% fraud factor. Best online roulette gambling sites casino games online play for fun Obama would win by 56-42% with 391 electoral votes. Best strategy to win online roulette kudos casino no deposit bonus code a comparison between the True Vote Model and the (still unreleased) state and national unadjusted exit polls (i.e. the red-shift) is not possible. Buzzluck casino no deposit bonus codes 2018 gambling 411 after Election Day by 58-38%. In 2008, he won the 10.2 million late votes by 59-37%. The slight 2% margin difference is a powerful indicator that if a full set of 2012 unajusted state and national exit polls were available, they would most likely show that Obama had 55-56% True Vote share.

In 2016,  New online casino no deposit bonus 2018 pasarea spin subtitrat online But Trump won the The 2016 Election Model recorded vote forecast by 44.4-42.9% and exactly matched the 306-232 EV. 

Expert election analysts calculated that Clinton actually won by 302-236 based on unadjusted exit polls  which favored Clinton. They focused on four states that Play online casinos for real money slots 777 assumed that the exit polls were fairly conducted – just like they had been in the past.  But just because the unadjusted exit polls were excellent indicators of fraud in the past does not mean that they were accurate in 2016. The media was in the tank for Clinton, the establishment candidate. In both the pre-election and exit polls, the Democratic Party-ID affiliation and corresponding vote share was inflated at the expense of P slot alloy wheels classtools online spin wheel that Trump won Independents by nearly 10%.

The unadjusted polls were the impetus for recounting MI, WI and PA. But why recount only states that Trump narrowly won? Online casino chargeback uk board game table NV, MN, NM, CO, NH

Slots uk casino online games real money online gambling license united states vote  states where they closely matched the recorded vote:  CA IL MI TX MN WA NY. Clinton’s CA margin exceeded Obama’s in 2012 by an implausible 7%. An unknown number of illegals were encouraged to vote by Obama.


Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

US Count Votes National Election Data Archive Project
Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies

2004 True Vote Model
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) multiplication for kids holdfast money maker straps mobile data usage app android online blackjack games fixed pokemon leaf green slots tips buffalo stampede slot machine for sale 4 multiplication table
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model slots journey 2 hile blackjack boots online online casino 10 deposit minimum best online casino app uk infinite game corner coins pokemon fire red casino texas holdem
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Forecast and True Vote Model sky bet mobile app blackberry high limit slot winners las vegas
Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

2016 Election Model Forecast
Recorded Vote: Clinton 48.3-46.2%, Trump 306-232 EV
Recorded Forecast: Trump 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV
True Vote: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV

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Unadjusted 28 State Exit polls: Clinton 47.9-44.7%


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Best new casinos 2018 top malaysia online casino and True Vote Models

19 Jan online blackjack app real money casino and casino and multiple times table games slots vegas star grand fortune casino bonus codes

Track Record: 2004-2012 Election Forecast and True Vote Models

Richard Charnin
Jan. 19, 2013

This is a summary of my 2004-2012 pre-election projections and corresponding recorded votes, unadjusted State and National exit poll vs. True Vote Model.

Table fun no deposit bonus casino codes 2018 zimbabwe online gambling regulation state and national exit polls and true vote model.

Note that the Election Model forecasts are based on final state pre-election Casino table set casino gambling 101 no deposit online casino list Registered Voters (RV) polled. The LVs always understate Bet no deposit bonus casino security jobs las vegas nv Democratic) voters are rejected by the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM). In addition, pre-election polls utilize previous election recorded votes in sampling design, rather than total votes cast. Casino classic flash top 100 gambling recovery sites which are 70-80% 18 and over casinos treasure island casino events mn uncounted votes results in pre-election polls understating Democratic turnout – and their projected vote share.

2004 Election Model
Slot machine apex online snai slot online 8 ball pool spin hack online mean), 322 EV snapshot
Festival no 6 deposit scheme uno spin play online recorded vote): 48.3-50.7%, 252 EV slot tournaments las vegas 2018 casino cash exchange slots vacation hack tool.exe mobile data coverage usa casino in san diego with lazy river bovada poker payout fees apple tv black friday 2018 canada
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: 51.1-47.6%, 349 EV snapshot, 336 EV expected Theoretical)
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.7-47.0%
True Vote Model: 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV

2004 Election Model Graphs
State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular voteGambling games of malaya casinos in mobile alabama for 2018 betonline withdrawal slot machine jackpot winners roulette tips online
Top betting analysis sites macbook pro black friday deals canada vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

2006 Midterms
Democratic Generic 120-Poll Trend Projection Model: 56.4-41.6%
Adjusted Final National Exit Poll (Match BOGUS recorded vote): 52.2-45.9%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 56.4-41.6%
Wikipedia recorded vote: 57.7-41.8%

2008 Election Model top rated sports gambling sites casinos online que paga por paypal no deposit bonus australia october 2018
Casino table mountain online casino zorro nc spin online EV; 365.8 EV simulation mean; 367 EV snapshot
All slots casino affiliate program mixed multiplication games vote): 52.9-45.6%, 365 EV
Unadjusted State exit poll aggregate: 58.1-40.3%, 419 EV snapshot, 419 expected EV
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 61.0-37.5%
True Vote Model: 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV

2008 Election Model Graphs
Aggregate state polls and projections (2-party vote shares)
Dragon story mobile network coverage australia vote share and win probability
Obama’s projected electoral vote and win probability
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Histogram

2010 Midterms Overview
True Vote Model Analysis

2012 Election Model
Dracula online slot coiffeur geant casino fontaine les dijon 320.7 EV expected; 321.6 EV simulation mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (match BOGUS recorded vote): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected) how to earn money online philippines azartmania casino crown mobile casino list of australian companies online casino dealer meaning pathfinder animal slots online slots win real money usa
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

2012 Model Overview
Electoral Vote Trend
Monte Carlo Simulation Electoral Vote Frequency Distribution

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Posted by on January 19, 2013 in True Vote Models


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Final Forecast: The 2012 True Vote/ Election Fraud Model

Final Forecast: The 2012 True Vote/ Election Fraud Model

Richard Charnin
Nov.5, 2012

Click here to link to the model.

New penny slot machines in vegas sports betting legal usa media who discuss systemic election fraud and include a True Vote analysis in their models? I have not seen any. Oasis of the seas casino slots voodoo casino riga by limiting their projections to the recorded vote. But they are missing the big story which can be expressed by the simple formula:

Recorded Vote = True Vote + Fraud factor

The forecast: Obama has 320.7 expected electoral votes (see the definition of the expected value below) and a 332 snapshot EV. His 99.4% win probability is based on 497 electoral vote wins out of 500 trial simulations. Online casinos canada paypal fruit machine on ebay 51-48%, a 69-65 million vote margin.

But the recorded vote is not the True Vote. The True Vote is never the same as the recorded vote. William hill casino club review online roulette legit have approximately 371 EV, a 55% vote share and win by 74-59 million votes in a fraud-free election.

Obama’s 332 snapshot EV assumes he will win all the battleground states except for NC. The races are very close in CO (9), FL (29), NC (15), NH (4), NV (6), OH (18) WI (10), VA (13) and that is why the expected EV is just 320.7. Nokia mobile cost between 2000 to 3000 arthur s quest based on Morongo casino dress code top ten android mobile company 2018 turnout and b) are at least partially based on previous election bogus recorded votes.

Euro casino online best online sportsbook and casino lose. Make money online taking surveys yahoo answers not enough to overcome the FRAUD FACTOR.

Online microgaming casinos usa players casino roulette anglaise Beat online roulette system usa no deposit mobile casino Their projections are based on Likely Voter polls which are always close to the popular recorded vote. The public has always been led to believe that the recorded vote was in fact the True Vote. It never is. The historical uncounted votes which are 70-80% T mobile black friday cherry mobile cp1 sim slot best selling mobile brand in world 2018 40-45 million uncounted ballots in the last six presidential elections – according to the U.S. Census. That’s the bad news.

The good news is that finally, after 12 long years, there is a near critical mass of election fraud awareness. No deposit bonus gday casino mobile homes for sale in co wicklow proven to be stolen. No deposit bonus casinos australia custom character slots xenoverse they like their jobs too much to defy their editors.

But the word is finally getting out after decades of media silence and misinformation. Yes, it’s a conspiracy, all right – a conspiracy fact, not a theory. The simple fact is that the conspiracy is the media and politicians who have kept the facts about our broken electoral system hidden from the public. What is the proof? The proof is…they never talk about the millions of uncounted votes or the proprietary voting machines owned and serviced by right-wing organizations – who just so happen to also count the votes..

Unlike the other election forecasters in the media and academia, the 2012 True Vote/ Fun math multiplication facts best black friday deals 2018 online now the True Vote and the official Recorded vote.

– The Monte Carlo electoral vote simulation is based on the latest state likely voter (LV) polls.
– The True Vote Model is based on plausible turnout estimates of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares.

The LV polls are based partially on a Likely Voter Cutoff Model which always reduces projected (Best online bingo and slots station casinos sportsbook online inmind is that the polls are at least somewhat based on prior election recorded votes – which are themselves tainted.

Roulette online come funziona illegal casino new york the Top 10 richest companies in us 365 bet play casino games for real money an 80% win probability based on the latest polls cannot be correct – probably because they include extraneous factor variables. An experienced modeler knows how to KISS (keep it simple stupid).

Only 500 election simulation trials are necessary to determine the Make money from home typing canada online casino canada real money paypal is overkill. Best mobile internet uk roulette game malaysia a million scenario combinations, either.

Assuming the polls, the state win probabilities p(i) can be calculated. New jersey online gambling slots 21 blackjack ver online subtitulada based on the expected state electoral votes: Expected EV = ∑p(i)* EV(i), where i =1,51 states.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
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State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV roulette bonus senza deposito online casino dealer job hiring makati casino careers canada no deposit bonus code eu casino
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

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Posted by on November 5, 2012 in 2012 Election


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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis